SBNation ACC Preview
I was asked to write this for SB Nation. Credit as well to the other 11 ACC writers in our fine network.
Confirmed from multiple sources, FSU will fill open date in 2011 with Louisiana-Monroe. Should be home season opener.
Great job. UL-Monroe is a bad Sun-Belt Conference opponent. All the goals were met for this game::
1. Buy a win against a team that has almost no shot of beating the Noles.
2. Make sure the team is 1A and not 1-AA to avoid the media criticism for playing two 1-AA teams.
3. Make sure the team doesn't run some funky option offense that could injure your defensive linemen.
Now, if FSU could just get rid of these Oklahoma, West Virginia, and USF games. No reason to play them when you face Florida, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Boston College, NC State, and Carolina.
And FSU will play Murray State in 2012 after Air Force backed out. Now the 'Noles need to dump one of USF or WVU in 2012.
'Nole Fans Must Be Patient With Florida State's New Zone-Based Defense
by Bud Elliott on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in FSU Football
53 comments
Everyone knows how awful Florida State's defense was, and most everyone expects a turnaround given the impressive track record of Florida State's new defensive coaches, including Defensive Coordinator Mark Stoops who produced top-25 defenses with marginal talent at Arizona. Stoops is installing a zone-coverage scheme that is a complete 180 from the man-coverage scheme run by the previous staff.
I found a very informative article on zone coverages from Mike Tanier, and have excerpted a particularly relevant portion. If you know a lot about football this will probably not be anything new for you, but if you struggled with our recent explanation of Stoops' zone defense, you might need to read this. It is important that all of our readers have some basic understanding of zone defense before we break down the different coverages.
If you ever tried to play a zone defense in a pickup game, you probably realized right away that it's hard. In basketball, setting up a 2-3 zone is pretty simple: the space is limited, so it is pretty easy to pick up guys in your zone. In football, with all of that space, you may find yourself defending an empty patch of turf while receivers catch passes in front of you, next to you, and behind you.
Linebackers new to zone defense often have a difficult time with the intricacies of zone coverage, allowing lots and lots of receptions by tight ends and running backs. It is not that they aren't fast or smart enough to stick with their receivers. Rather, the problem is that they are too inexperienced and indecisive to read and attack pass routes.
This is largely a reason why teams transitioning from a man-heavy scheme to a zone-heavy scheme, or vice-a-versa, see the major improvements in the second year of the new scheme. That's not to say Florida State fans should not expect significant improvement in year one. They should, but that improvement is likely to come because FSU is moving from the worst defensive coaching staffs in the nation to one of the better groups of defensive coaches assembled in college ball. Step one is knowing the assignment and getting to the assigned area. That is easy. Step two is reading and adjusting on the run while moving to the assigned zone. And that is not easy, as Mike explains:
That brings us to the key element of zone coverage: defenders must break on the ball before the pass is thrown. Any defender who sits in his zone and waits for the quarterback to release the ball before making his move is a cooked goose. He must watch the quarterback and follow the progression of the pass routes in order to determine where the pass is going to be thrown, and he had better be moving when the ball is released.
Remember that zone coverage is not man coverage: a linebacker assigned to the "hook" zone (the region about 7-10 yards from the line of scrimmage just outside the tackles) cannot rush out to blanket a tight end who enters his territory. If he does, he'll be in no position to stop the running back executing an angle route into the same zone or the wide receiver running a slow drag from the other side of the field. All three players will be that linebacker's responsibility at some point in the play, so all he can do is drop into his zone and stay alert.
That means that the tight end could run an eight-yard pattern, curl to face the quarterback, and stand there with the linebacker six yards away. Essentially, the tight end is open, because the linebacker is on the lookout for other receivers. If the quarterback decides to throw to the tight end, the linebacker has to beat the ball there. That only can happen if he anticipates the pass.
It's not that FSU players did not play zone coverage before. They did, but it was infrequent and more importantly not well taught. FSU's former defensive staff (before 2007) did a great job teaching man coverage, but did not do a great job teaching zone coverage as it was just not a priority. When the defensive staff went to hell a few years ago and the man coverage fell off... well, you can just imagine what happened with non-priority parts of the defense like zone. FSU's guys are truly rookies of zone coverage. So, how do they do it?
But how can defenders perform these nearly psychic readings? They watch the drop of the quarterback, knowing that shorter drops lead to shorter passes. They read his eyes. They watch the cock of the shoulders: longer passes require the quarterback to dip his back shoulder. They learn the difference between a passer's pump-fake and his throwing motion, and they look for clues, like patting the ball, that indicate that the quarterback is ready to release.
The pass routes themselves provide further clues. Offenses use routes in combination to beat zones. That eight-yard curl by the tight end is often accompanied by an angle route or flat route by a running back, with a deep post route by the receiver on that side of the field. A savvy defender can figure out what the defense is up to and follow the same reads the quarterback makes.
All of this reading and reacting requires a lot of gray matter. It's an oversimplification to say that man coverage is all about athletic ability, while zones are all about intelligence. But there is more than a bit of truth in the statement. Excellent athletes have proven to be hopeless in zone coverage because they don't react quickly (Derrick Gibson of the Raiders is an example), while slower defenders with tons of experience can be very effective.
Please note that I did not edit or insert the Derrick Gibson example. Yes, the example of an athletic safety struggling in zone coverage is a former Seminole coached under the previous staff. That really couldn't be more fitting to show just how far this defense has to go.
I explained FSU's predicament to my mom in terms of dancing with the stars. You could have two dancers who learn the steps to a new dance. They can practice the steps. But it will take a while dancing with each other before they achieve that necessary synergy.
But while FSU's defense does have a long way to go, there is a lot of hope for this unit. FSU's offense is tremendous and faced with the pressure of matching an elite offense score for score, teams often will not maintain the patience and composure needed to move the ball against a zone defense. And even very green zone defenses have a field day when opposing quarterbacks force balls instead of taking what the defense gives them. Additionally, FSU has a ton of athleticism on this unit and to say that talent was poorly developed would be giving the previous staff far too much credit. The great unknown is just how much the new coaches can improve the raw players on the defensive side of the ball.
In 2010, expect the defense to be competent. In 2011, expect it to be really good based on the greater familiarity with the scheme.
Florida State Seminoles Season Preview 2010: Defensive Backs
by Bud Elliott on Sep 1, 2010 8:32 PM EDT
in FSU Football
84 comments
This is the eighth and final in a multi-part preview series covering the position groups as Florida State starts the 2010 season. Of the 66 major conference teams, FSU was only better than Louisville, Kansas, Indiana, Duke, Stanford, Kansas State, Iowa State, Illinois, and of course, Washington State. The last ACC defenses to be this bad in league play were some of the mid-decade Duke teams. If you want more comparisons and perspective, check out Closing The Book On The 2009 FSU Defense. Today I'll look at the defensive backs.
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Offensive Line |Defensive Line | Linebackers | Defensive Backs
Both corners and safeties are coached by the same man and I'll address them together. Everyone knows about Mickey Andrews' tragic family issues and that his focus was obviously not on the team. Coach Andrews is an awesome figure in Florida State history and a great 'Nole. Enter Mark Stoops, the decorated defensive coordinator from Arizona. He will coach defensive backs and coordinate the defense. Stoops comes highly recommended from multiple Jimbo Fisher contacts, most notably Bo Pelini of Nebraska and Will Muschamp of Texas.
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| Defensive Coordinator and Secondary Coach Mark Stoops |
Stoops recently met with the media. He's quite a bit different than Mickey Andrews. Andrews was very southern. Stoops is extremely midwestern. But like Andrews in his prime, Stoops consistently has his defense performing at a very high level. We recently profiled the defense Stoops will run (much more zone). That is a needed change as FSU's schemes were stale and were quite vulnerable even if FSU had the most elite of talent, which it arguably did not. The talent is quite good, though young, and Stoops is excited to again work with elite athletes like he had at Miami in the early part of the last decade.
The most important changes will be stressing assignment football, technique, and attention to detail. Teams exploited FSU's lack of attention to detail and lack of discipline. It is not about making plays. It is about executing your assignment with championship discipline and technique. It's good to force turnovers by putting the offense into a negative leverage down, pressuring the quarterback, and forcing him into a bad throw. It's not good to attempt to force turnovers by gambling and playing recklessly. While FSU forced a lot of turnovers last year, the turnovers were often a result of poor process. And that poor process was exposed on a mind-boggling number of big plays given up. Stoops will not tell his guys to go make plays. He will tell them to go play their assignment and let the turnovers come to them. That change, along with the new zone schemes, will present a major adjustment for FSU's defensive backs. FSU's defensive backs are going to have to leverage the hash, pattern read, squeeze routes, pass off receivers, etc. Importantly, Stoops will fit this system to the players better than we saw over the past few years. It will not be easy and the whole process will probably not show until 2011. Before proficiency comes competency and competency is the goal for the 2010 defense.
FSU loses its best defender in cornerback Patrick Robinson (1st round draft choice of New Orleans). Robinson played very well last season but was exposed a few times as the scheme put him in an untenable position. Can FSU's secondary get better despite losing one of the top corners in the country? Definitely, and part of that is because of other losses. Florida State thankfully is rid of #22 Korey Mangum, a safety who was arguably the worst scholarship player in Noles history. The 'Noles also lose Jamie Robinson, the free safety who played somewhere between average and below average. Losing Mangum is a huge gain for the 'Noles. FSU was effectively playing 10-on-11 with him on the field.
Cornerback
FSU looks to be in good shape at the corner position.
Field Corner (wide side of the field)
It all starts with Greg Reid. I liked the 5'8" 182 lb sophomore a lot-- as a kick and punt returner. Reid is the best return man in the country. His vision in the open field is incredible. But as a corner Greg did not play well last year. He did make some highlight interceptions, but those interceptions and interception attempts highlighted what I talked about above. Greg didn't make his interceptions as a result of playing his assignment. He got them by freelancing. And as a result of that freelancing, he was burnt a ton. He either didn't know or refused to play his assignment and hurt the defense. Additionally, Greg didn't tackle well. But Reid really transformed this Spring. He became a leader in the secondary. The coaches raved about his practice habits. He put in work in the weight room. He took to the new scheme. He won defensive player of the Spring, had a good summer, and has continued to have a good Fall. He has the starting spot locked down and everyone is really excited to see a player who could perhaps contend for all-conference honors in 2011 or 2012 (or perhaps this year). And he'll continue to be one of if not the best punt returners in the country.
JUCO transfer Mike Harris got in late, but he has immediately shown why FSU brought him in. Harris has been impressive in Fall camp and coach Fisher called him the "silent assassin." His familiarity with the scheme from his JUCO days was immediately apparent. Harris could likely start for many ACC teams, he just happens to be behind Greg Reid. The 6'0" 180-lb Junior helps to provide great depth.
Inside, see analysis of the other 10 DBs
84 comments | 1 recs |
Florida State Seminoles Season Preview 2010: Linebackers
by Bud Elliott on Sep 1, 2010 6:03 PM EDT
in FSU Football
44 comments
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| Linebaker Coach Greg Hudson |
This is seventh in a multi-part preview series covering the position groups as Florida State starts the 2010 season. Of the 66 major conference teams, FSU was only better than Louisville, Kansas, Indiana, Duke, Stanford, Kansas State, Iowa State, Illinois, and of course, Washington State. The last ACC defenses to be this bad in league play were some of the mid-decade Duke teams. If you want more comparisons and perspective, check out Closing The Book On The 2009 FSU Defense. Today I'll look at the linebackers.
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Offensive Line | Defensive Line | Linebackers | Defensive Backs
Florida State's linebackers were awful last year. Out with the divisive, egotistical Chuck Amato, who seemed more concerned with subverting Fisher's efforts to change the program than he was with coaching his linebackers. News leaked that Amato is battling cancer and I wish him a speedy recovery. But discussing linebackers requires an honest look at many of his failures and it would be wrong to blame the players for shortcomings that should rightfully be attributed to Amato.
Enter Greg Hudson (info and bio at link). Hudson recently spoke about what he likes in his linebackers (very big, fast, intelligent, instinctive). Hudson produced numerous All-Conference defenders at East Carolina and I think he's a bright defensive mind. Here's more Hudson video.
FSU fans hope Hudson is the anti-Amato in terms of production. Boosters were initially fired up about Amato acting as the locker police as they were led to believe that would translate into a better disciplined team. But fans were quickly disappointed as it became apparent that there was a de-emphasis in understanding the defense, understanding the opposing offense, taking proper angles to the football, discipline, gap control, etc. Instead, what FSU got was the "freedom system" in which Amato's linebackers were told to just go make plays. That is an extremely effective strategy in Pop Warner ball when a coach has one kid with a late-July birthday who is physically superior to everyone else on the field. It's absolutely not acceptable for a college coach. Simplification is one thing, but what happened with FSU's linebackers was something altogether different. That's to say nothing of the atrocious tackling, complete inability to neutralize and fight off blockers, the poor job in pass coverage and the apparent complete lack of coordination between DE & LB.
The LB position is unique and probably the toughest on the field to play because of having both run and pass responsibilities on every play and coverage call. Players have to be smart, disciplined in reading keys, and with enough size to tackle big backs and handle linemen blockers, and still cover smaller RBs and TEs in man/zone coverage. STS.
This linebacker group had a major culture shock similar to what I profiled in the defensive end position preview. I don't think Hudson will be a miracle worker, but I don't think he needs to be. There is a good amount of talent here. He has re-emphasized understanding of the defensive scheme, understanding the opposing offense, taking proper angles to the football, discipline, gap control, tackling, fighting blocks with proper technique, pass drops, keys, etc. Hudson is a proven linebackers coach. The real limitation here is of course time. FSU fans should expect competency from this group in 2010. Dominance will have to wait until 2011 as these 'backers have a lot to learn. With that, let's get to the players:
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| 6'2" 241 lb Outsider 'Backer Nigel Bradham |
The Known Commodity
Nigel Bradham. 6'2" 241 lbs. 5* recruit. Fast. Powerful. Nigel Bradham is FSU's best linebacker. Bradham started 12 games on the weak side last season, notching 95 tackles. He played at about 235 lbs as it became apparent that if he were to stay on the outside he would need to break down some of the high school muscle he had too swiftly packed on to his prototype frame and add it back slowly in order to increase his hip flexibility.
Of course some believe that Bradham was miscast on the weak side and should have been playing the MIKE (Middle 'backer) or SAM (strong side) position. That's an argument for another day and one that has been argued on every 'Nole message board over the last two years. I don't think anyone will debate that Bradham was stiff and does run a bit bow-legged. But he can still be one heck of a linebacker.
We know from past interviews that Hudson will likely line up his playmaker at weak-side linebacker (the WILL) position. As the WILL he is essentially playing as a second Middle (MIKE) linebacker in FSU's scheme (not aligned on the line of scrimmage). Bradham is a natural tackler with good balance. He's good in pass coverage. He needs to improve his recognition, but that is a constant throughout this preview with every linebacker having that need.
Bradham is a Junior this year and many speculate that he will go pro with a good 2010 campaign. Given his physical gifts, he would probably be foolish not to go get paid. That process starts by taking advantage of the competent coaching now available to him. By all accounts he has done this.
Inside, I'll discuss the remaining 'backers.
44 comments | 1 recs |
Give Your Final Prediction On FSU's Season!
by Bud Elliott on Sep 1, 2010 11:15 AM EDT
in FSU Football
341 comments
Back in May of last year Bud wrote about how professional gamblers assign probabilities to each game to go about predicting the season. This is an exercise we like to run to manage expectations and show how difficult it truly is to win 10 games or more in college football, especially if a team is not favored in all of its games.
It just so happens I have a friend of mine who is a professional gambler. Every year since my freshman year of college, we've gotten together and broken down the upcoming season, and we have a method. We call it "proportional win shares". You can call it whatever you want, but I think you'll see how it's more effective than simply assigning "win" or "loss" to the games.
The idea is simple: assign a winning % to each game. For instance, you could say that FSU has an 80% chance of beating Maryland (0.80), or that they have a 20% chance to beat UF (0.20).
Now, I think it is fair to say that many around here know the drill, but Tomahawk Nation has grown drastically since last year and we want to give everyone a shot. We've conducted this exercise 4 times now and this is your final prediction! It will be very interesting to track the changes in the optimism (or pessimism) for the team and to determine whether any change in prediction was tied to a specific event. This is your chance to show us how good or bad you think Florida State will be!
It's simple. "How likely is FSU to win in each game?"
Props to editor ricobert1 for creating this great survey, where you can select the chance FSU will win in each game and it will automatically fill in your proportional win shares! So read the article on proportional win shares, then take the survey!
For posterity, you may view user results here (click to see your results). However, we encourage you to only view these once you've submitted your own predictions in order to minimize inducing (more) bias.
Tomahawk Nation Pick'em Get in today!
by Bud Elliott on Sep 1, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
12 comments
It's back! Sorry to delay on this, but we've been quite busy with the site. Get in and dominate!
This pool, like all pools on Fun Office Pools is completely FREE to play. All you need to do is create an account (again - completely FREE and spam FREE as well) by clicking on the 'join pool' link below. It only takes a minute to sign up and join the pool - we hope you accept this invitation. These office pools are a lot of fun!
Only one entry per e-mail address/ TN name
Only games involving an ACC team
The picks are not weighted
The picks are not against the spread
Just pick who will win the games.
http://www.funofficepools.com/joinpool.php?Passed_Pool_Key=780d2734923
Florida State coaching staff working well together and actually liking one another
As we discussed here last season, many of us felt the stories of infighting and power struggles between coaches, the USF pre-game shouting match which almost turned physical between coaches, in front of the players, when Coach Bowden was reportedly hamming it up with Alabama buddies and nowhere to be found to give his pre-game pep talk, racial slurs resulting in one assistant coach decking another, and a sucker punch on the plane ride back from BC, were not just rumors, but actual happenings on our then dysfunctional coaching staff.
So reading reports like this one from Andrew Carter are a much needed breath of fresh air, a welcome relief, and a sign of special things that are forthcoming as we are about to start the Jimbo Fisher era here at FSU.
That hadn't been the norm here for a while, although nobody would come out say so. But rumors of a dysfunctional staff at Florida State persisted so much — especially last season — that they ceased to be rumors.
They became reality.
-and-
In years past Florida State's divided staff created a divided team. The offense and defense rarely met together and rarely worked together. The locker room was separated by position segments, so that some offensive and defensive players rarely interacted.
Fisher has emphasized unity. Gone are the locker room divisions. The team spends time together as a whole. The Seminoles recently had their first night out at the movies — players, coaches, everybody.
Click here to read the story and click here to read AC's other comments on the Chopping Block.
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Seminoles Football Schedule
| Samford | Sat 09/04 | 12:00 PM EDT |
@
Oklahoma
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Sat 09/11 | 3:30 PM EDT |
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BYU
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Sat 09/18 | 3:30 PM EDT |
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Wake Forest
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Sat 09/25 | TBA |
| @ Virginia | Sat 10/02 | TBA |
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@
Miami
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Sat 10/09 | TBA |
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Boston College
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Sat 10/16 | TBA |
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@
N.C. State
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Thu 10/28 | 7:30 PM EDT |
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North Carolina
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Sat 11/06 | TBA |
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Clemson
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Sat 11/13 | TBA |
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@
Maryland
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Sat 11/20 | TBA |
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Florida
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Sat 11/27 | TBA |
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