Week 8 CBS Sports Bogpoll Ballot (Draft)... and other FSU Notes

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 5:37 PM EDT in Football Comment 36 comments

Inside.

FSU is ranked 23rd and 24th in the 2 polls, and currently sits at 25th in the BCS.

Miami is favored over Wake Forest by 3. FSU is favored over VT by 6. The most likely scenario this weekend will put FSU in a tie for the Division lead.

ESPN currently projects the 'Noles to play Pittsburgh in the Orange Bowl.

I had a really hard time with this week's poll.

This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week. I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. As always, I want your help. Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y." I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change." Power poll rankings are dumb. The teams ranked 1, 3, 4, 13, 20 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend. I do not consult major polls when doing this. Their record of futility is clear. Let the teams earn their rankings on the field. I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible. This system is not perfect, but it is the best we have right now.

Rank	Team	LOSSES

1	Texas	0
2	Alabama	0
3	Penn State	0
4	Oklahoma State	0
5	Southern Cal	1
6	Florida	1
7	Utah	0
8	Oklahoma	1
9	Ohio State	1
10	Georgia	1
11	Boise State	0
12	Georgia Tech	1
13	Pittsburgh	1
14	Minnesota	1
15	TCU	0
16	LSU	1
17	Tulsa	0
18	Cincinnati	1
19	South Florida	1
20	Boston College	1
21	Northwestern	1
22	Florida State	1
23	Ball State	0
24	Kansas	2
25	Virginia Tech	2

Please rip this, as I am not happy with this result at all. I'm having a very hard time getting my head around it this week.

Also, check out the huge list of 2-Loss teams from BCS Conferences:

Maryland, Wake Forest, Va Tech, UNC, WVU, UCONN, Louisville, Michigan State, Kansas, Missouri, Oregon, Arizona, Cal, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Notre Dame.

16 of them. Tough.

So, please, your thoughts.

0 recs | Comment 36 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

You should bounce VT out of there, BC is suspect imho.

"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton

by NoleCC on Oct 19, 2008 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

VT looked horrid, but

BC is a 1-loss BCS conf team. I think at this point, they should stay.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but they both looked horrid!

by truecolors on Oct 20, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On 2nd glance that should be easy to do, you forgot Texas Tech…

"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton

by NoleCC on Oct 19, 2008 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ah, bingo.

Gracias.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Minnesota at 14? I love the Gophers, but even I’d put them at around 19/20.

by Moojenowski on Oct 19, 2008 6:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gopher fans say move 'em down, I listen.

It’ll happen.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Utah is too high.

Texas Tech should be top 10.

Even though OU has 1 loss (to Texas), I feel they are better than Ok.St.

by thirdcoastnole on Oct 19, 2008 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I forgot to rank TTech, they're top 10 for sure.

Remember though, that this is a resume system. I personally think USC is the best team in America and UF is second, and if I did a power poll system I’d do that.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Havin' a hard time with my ballot as well

ACCFR ballot

I’ve got Mizzou at #13 despite getting pantsed at Texas. Their two losses are to #1 Texas & #4 Okie State, and they annihilated decent Nebraska and Nevada teams. How do you compare/contrast with, say, Tulsa, who’s killing everybody they play but everybody they play is horrid?

I think UNC’s resume, even at 5-2, is better than Ball State’s at 7-0. But for whatever reason, it feels weird to rank them that way.

Your ballot (except for the accidental omission of TT) basically looks like the regular polls with some scattered big variations (Minnesota, GT, Cincy?). And I don’t know if that’s good or bad.

I think power pollin’ might be the way to go until we get to November. Once teams are 9 or 10 games into the season, we have a better grasp of how good or bad they are. I mean, what to make of Virginia or Ole Miss right now? Is UF’s loss to the Rebels understandable or an atrocity? It’s hard to know at this point.

by ACCMarcus on Oct 19, 2008 8:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Marcus

I’ll take a look. Good points on Missou and Tulsa. I think I will take a harder look at the 2-loss teams.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 19, 2008 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking ahead

Barring Bama beating a 11-1 Florida team, Texas vs Penn St is the clear cut National Title game.

"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your f***in' mouth."-Bill Hicks

by FSBlueApocalypse on Oct 20, 2008 12:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Texas still needs to run the table, as does PSU.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thought you left Tech out on purpose

Would have been ballsy. They’re probably top 25 material, but there is no way their resume warrants inclusion in the top 10. All they have done so far is not lose. That’s certainly worth something, but their best win so far is Nebraska in OT. The rest of their slate consisted of KSU, Nevada, SMU, and two I-AA teams. That’s god awful. It’s comparable to what Ball St. has done so far.

by andy_wooster on Oct 20, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You have a good point there

and I’ll reconsider them as far as top 10 goes. Nice win this weekend by your Horns.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Resumes

USC v Oklahoma

USC def Ohio St. (I’ve previously made my case as to why I think you put way too much stock into this)
                  Ok. def Kansas
                  OK def TCU
——————————————————————————
                  OK def Cincy
USC def Oregon
                 Texas def OK
                OK def Baylor
USC def Washington
USC looses to Oregon St
USC def. ASU

USC def UVA (which is really a tale of two seasons. at that point it was not impressive)

USC is putting up big numbers, but against who? The bottom of the PAC10- which is the bottom of the NCAA. I know you biased towards USC because you believe they are the best team and you will refuse to look at their “resumes.” Also, if you throw out scores and how good they looked to me again, you again have just created a power poll. Power Polls are performance based.

I can do the same thing with Florida’s resume too. Florida has FAR more quality wins and a loss thats bad (but not as bad as oregon st.) Given they didn’t beat the overrated number 1 team, but they did beat an LSU team who “analysts” thought across the board would beat UF. Your poll is a joke.

by UNFNOLE on Oct 20, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know you biased towards USC because you believe they are the best team and you will refuse to look at their "resumes."

That is completely untrue. I can think they’re the best team in the nation and still rank them based on their resume.

The bottom of the PAC10- which is the bottom of the NCAA

USC did not play Washington, and if they did, that win would definitely not be above the ASU win.

the ballot reflects a ranking by on-field accomplishments to date. Your own take may vary based on how you value differently the numerous variables in play (home-road splits, margin of victory, etc.).

Given they didn’t beat the overrated number 1 team, but they did beat an LSU team who "analysts" thought across the board would beat UF.

UF was favored to win the game by almost a touchdown. You seem to be very subjective in dismissing the win over Ohio State. The Ohio State win is now very impressive, they’ve won every other game they played.

I also take issue with the complete devaluation of the AZ State and Virginia Victories.

If you want to give OU a lot of credit for hanging with Texas, then that is your prerogative. I tend to think they deserve a lot of credit for that game.

The TCU win looks very good for them now as well, maybe I will bump OU up ahead of Utah and UF.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

USC vs. Florida

USC’s wins
-35-3 at home over 7-1 Ohio State
-44-10 at home over 5-2 Oregon
-52-7 at 4-3 Virginia
-28-0 at home to 2-4 Arizona State
-69-0 at 1-7 Washington State

UF’s wins
-51-21 at home over 5-1 LSU
-26-3 at home over 4-3 Miami
-38-7 at 3-4 Arkansas
-30-6 at 3-4 Tennessee
-56-10 at home to 3-4 Hawaii

USC’s loss
-27-21 at 4-3 Oregon State

UF’s loss
-31-30 at home to 3-4 Ole Miss

Where are UF’s “FAR more quality wins” again? USC clearly has the better resume thus far. I don’t see how that’s even debatable. UF’s advantage is that their remaining slate looks much rougher than SC’s.

by ACCMarcus on Oct 20, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marcus,

thanks for dialing this up.

It doesn’t make any sense to evaluate to date performance with future schedule. You must use to-date schedule, and I’m glad you pointed this out.

Still, I think my poll sucks this week. Going to take some major re-working.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trust me

You ain’t gonna be happy with your re-working. After about #12 or #13, it’s just sifting through a morass of above-average-ness.

I don’t like having Mizzou or TCU or Kansas or USF as high as they are on my ballot, but everyone below them has a slightly less impressive resume in my eyes. And that’s why I’m starting to think power-polling is the way to go until November. Resumes are too thin when they only have 4 to 7 bullet points.

by ACCMarcus on Oct 20, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Saurian Sagacity discussed the idea of 6 (or 5) games versus 7 or 8 games.

His contention was that you had to reward teams who have played (and won) more games, and then reward the other teams when they catch up, much like a stagger-start race.

The obvious example here is OSU, which is 7-1. USC and UF, however, have only played 6 games. Ditto FSU.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think I like that idea

Yeah, theoretically Team A (with two early byes) can catch and surpass Team B (with later byes) at the end, but that still means scheduling quirks play an enormous part in polling for the first 14 weeks of the year.

I’m really starting to think power-polling is the way to go until everyone has played more than 50% of their games. It’s ultimately meaningless if you’re going to switch to resume anyway, so why not just rank ’em as you see ’em until November? In a 12-game season, once everyone has played 7 games, then resume-ranking is appropriate….it just might create a titanic shift in the polls after that initial changeover week.

by ACCMarcus on Oct 20, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see your argument,

but the rules require us to use the resume system in the final week. I’m not sure I want to use one system for 14 weeks and then switch.

Also, I think it’s very interesting to see how things develop using resume.

If we wait until everyone has played 7, we would still be faced with some teams having completed 9 games.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, doesn't every other league in the world use Resume?

NFL, NBA, MLB, etc are all resume. There is no power-polling in those sports.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Oct 20, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Since when is college football like any other sport?

We’re still deciding our national champs by votes! That’s what makes it so beautiful yet so agonizing.

I’m just advocating power-polling until we get to just-past-the-midway-point of the season. Almost everyone starts off with a power poll anyway and then switches when they see fit. The fact that East Carolina would clearly have been #1 after week 2 in resume ranking just seems goofy to me. Resume is the way to go, but at the appropriate time.

by ACCMarcus on Oct 20, 2008 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs