Strap in! FSU plays the toughest remaining schedule in College Football

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 2:07 PM EDT in FSU Football

I really wish I came across this before penning The Kool-Aid Debate. Still, it's better late than never. The guys at Football Outsiders (amazing site) have started taking a closer look at college football, and not surprisingly, they've uncovered some interesting factoids.

The most interesting one: FSU has faced the 101st ranked schedule to date, but will now face the #1 toughest schedule in the nation!

I Rank

Team

W-L

SOS To Date

Rank

SOS Remain

Rank

SOS Total

Rank


.	1	Texas	(7-0)	0.464	37	0.508	34	0.236	37
.	2	Alabama	(7-0)	0.386	29	0.737	64	0.284	49
.	3	Penn State	(7-0)	0.758	94	0.581	48	0.44	75
.	4	Florida	(5-1)	0.555	55	0.29	11	0.161	20
.	5	Georgia	(5-1)	0.277	6	0.285	9	0.079	2
.	6	USC	(5-1)	0.674	80	0.739	66	0.498	86
.	7	Georgia Tech	(4-1)	0.464	38	0.351	17	0.163	21
.	8	Oklahoma	(5-1)	0.353	19	0.508	33	0.179	24
.	9	Virginia Tech	(4-2)	0.289	8	0.749	69	0.216	30
.	10	North Carolina	(4-2)	0.497	43	0.448	23	0.222	32
.	11	Oklahoma State	(6-0)	0.675	81	0.23	3	0.155	19
.	12	Boston College	(4-1)	0.419	33	0.485	29	0.203	27
.	13	Vanderbilt	(5-2)	0.324	12	0.443	22	0.144	15
.	14	Mississippi	(2-4)	0.168	2	0.768	72	0.129	8
.	15	Missouri	(4-2)	0.266	4	0.877	100	0.234	36
.	16	Pittsburgh	(5-1)	0.629	73	0.728	62	0.458	78
.	17	Texas Tech	(5-0)	0.88	114	0.202	2	0.178	23
.	18	Ohio State	(6-1)	0.456	36	0.476	28	0.217	31
.	19	South Carolina	(4-3)	0.264	3	0.542	40	0.143	14
.	20	South Florida	(5-1)	0.663	78	0.774	75	0.513	89


.	21	Ball State	(6-0)	0.901	118	0.738	65	0.665	109
.	22	Iowa	(4-3)	0.561	57	0.467	24	0.262	43
.	23	Boise State	(5-0)	0.89	116	0.911	110	0.81	119
.	24	Tulsa	(6-0)	0.913	120	0.895	105	0.818	120
.	25	LSU	(4-1)	0.428	34	0.246	5	0.106	6
.	26	Florida State	(3-1)	0.782	101	0.185	1	0.145	16

yeah... not good.

Nole fans, it's good to be confident, but let's seriously temper our expectations. I am officially considering a 9-3 finish a big accomplishment. We're going to face 6 bowl teams from here on out, 5 of which will probably end the season ranked.

Some interesting poll impact might come of this. Texas Tech, Boise, Ball State, Tulsa, Utah, FSU, and BYU have all been ranked in major polls so far, and none have played a schedule outside the top 100. As someone who likes to take quality losses into account, I will definitely be taking this into account next week. No, I won't leave FSU off if they beat Va Tech, but BYU, Ball State, Tulsa, and Utah will be dropping. I'll also be bumping Texas Tech down, even if they win at Kansas. I hate it that teams can schedule crap opponents and get away with it. Penn State has faced the 94th ranked schedule in America.

What else? They say we have the 70th ranked offense to date, and the 37th ranked defense. These numbers are much more in line with what guys like Phil Steele have been saying (44th ranked Pass Efficiency Defense, adjusted for opponent). Please note that these numbers are opponent adjusted.

For comparison purposes, Va tech ranks 59th on offense and 13th on defense, adjusted for opponent of course (VT has faced the 8th toughest schedule in America to date).

Maybe NoleCC was right when he left FSU off his poll?

Scalpem did a nice job grabbing a bunch of Nole stories today, and I have to agree that Va Tech's entrance is sweet.

Remind me to track this stuff every week. I find it pretty fascinating.

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Comments

Its not over tell the fat lady sings

I understand that FSU has a tough time here on out but I cant look at the numbers like this because I see whats going on the field. I think we beat VT bad, I think GT will not be able to run on our D line, BC is going to try to stay close but I think we will be strong and hold our ground. Maryland needs to flip a coin to see which team they want to paly. that leaves UF. I know we will not be favored to win but you have to through everything out for that game. What if, What if , What if. I know we might lose 2 but its posable to win them all at the same time. If we take it one game at a time I think FSU can, I think FSU can I think FSU can.

by Desman on Oct 23, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

I'm glad Nole fans remain optimistic,

but I don’t think we can block VT consistently enough. We should shut down their offense, but will we be able to block them? I’m not so sure.

Des, I’m not sure what you mean by saying “I can’t look at the numbers”, but the numbers tell us a lot about a teams performance.

UF is a lot better than us, if we played today, I think they’d win in Doak somewhere around 34-13.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I see the numbers and I know they dont lie but the number in the computer say USC is ranked in the top 5 and thats BS. The numbers are just that. What about maryland there lose to unranked teams but beat ranked. I just feel that FSU can score on anyone at anytime. I feel our D is one of the best in the nations and can stop anyone. If we were to go into the UF game right now no we prob would lose but I think at the same time we could get an upset. I think the WF game was done when ponder throw the first INT because it took FSU conf. away. We might not have the best O line in the country but we do have a good RB and the QB is looking better every game. the WR can play good to. I dont think anyone could out jump the 2 giants out side. Parker hasnt had a good game realy and Easterling is hot right now. Reed is out for a game thats it big deal. go to class dude. The funny thing is that we are a run team with those weapons on the pass. if Ponder gets conf. in the in the first Qrt in any game he could tear any def apart with these guys and Jimbo knows that. and to top it off the kid can scramble. I could care less about numbers because of this. Mabye Im being optimistic but Im just going on what I see in the games and what I read from espn, here, and local news online.

by Desman on Oct 24, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

This is probably the Athens, GA coming out in me but; how in God’s Green Earth does FSU have a harder schedule than UGA? Granted we both play GA Tech and FLA (our two toughest opponents), but there is no possible way anyone can convince me otherwise the rest of UGA’s schedule, including LSU in Baton Rouge, is an easier challenge then the rather mundane ACC trifecta FSU is up against with home games against Clemson and BC and an away game at College Park.

Give credit where credit is due and certainly don’t think I consider any of those FSU games cakewalks, Lord knows we may lose all three, but putting those games up against UGA’s schedule at Kentucky, at Auburn and at LSU certainly has to give the SOS edge to the Dawgs.

I know I may be splitting hairs here but come on now!

By the way Bud, Tuscaloosa may very well be my new favorite college town! You chose well my friend.

by jds07d on Oct 23, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions

I think you have to look at the totality.

We both play UF, given. @ LSU is very tough, for sure.

However, there are a few key differences (not many, consider that UGA’s remaining schedule is 9th)…

FSU plays 6 games, UGA plays 5. I have to believe that factors into it.

Realistically, though, let’s rank them:

@ UF
UF neutral (UGA)
@ LSU (UGA)
@ GTECH
Gtech (UGA)
VTech
Boston College
@ Ketucky (UGA)
@ Auburn
@ Maryland
Clemson

I think the key here is the diminished value of the @ Auburn and @ Kentucky matchup.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I would take BC, VT, and Maryland on a good day over Auburn and Kentucky, maybe LSU as well. I don’t want to dis the SEC too much, but aside from having the two top 10 quality teams in Alabama and Florida, it isn’t really much better than the ACC. I’m not entirely sure on this, but I think that LSU and UGA are not elite teams, and we will see this to be true in the coming weeks.

by Mongo314 on Oct 23, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Maryland?

I’d MUCH rather play Auburn or Kentucky than Maryland.

by Fsued on Oct 23, 2008 4:39 PM EDT reply actions

If that was directed at me, I meant that I think that BC, VT and Maryland would beat those teams head to head, not that I would rather play them. I probably could have worded that better.

by Mongo314 on Oct 23, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Maryland's best is better than UK or Aub's best, but those two have been more consistent.

Also, ED, I got your questions in!

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks!

… on the questions. Sorry I’m so late on those.

On Maryland, clearly they flunk the consistence test! ;-P

The question is, have they gotten it together or is it just another hump in the roller coaster.

I guess my way of ranking would be — who would I least like to play this week. Of the three, Maryland would be the answer.

Also, see my question on the weekly “test” — want to make sure I’m answer the right question.

Just decided to drive my boys to Atlanta next week for the GT game — if you’re interested, I’ll be happy to post my thoughts on Sunday night when we return — I always see more watching the game live than I do on TV.

by Fsued on Oct 23, 2008 10:01 PM EDT reply actions

Ed,

I’ll look at the contest question.

Auburn clearly embarrassed the SEC tonight.

I can’t make the trip, so I would love to have you give your thoughts.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions

The ACC is tougher than it gets credit for

It will be interesting to see when the ACC will finally get its due. When the SEC or Big 10 knocks each other off, it’s because it’s a tough conference. When it happens in the ACC, it’s because the ACC just isn’t any good. This happens year in and year out. I’m not saying that the ACC is better than the SEC. I am saying that we’re in a good conference that is much stronger top to bottom than most of the other conferences.

by nacfsu on Oct 23, 2008 10:16 PM EDT reply actions

I think their out of conference against the spread record might indicate their prowess.

We won’t get respect until we have an elite team, however, and probably not until we stop allowing teams to play tackle the receiver in his route, as a conference.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Oct 23, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

anyone anywhere

That use to be what FSU did and thats where we should go. Bring on VT, BC, Maryland, GT, UF. we might now win them all but at least we will go down fighting and I bet we put someone in the hospital.
WF still has to play Miami, UVA, and BC
Maryland still has FSU, VT, BC, & both carolinas
BC still has FSU, maryland, WF, UNC
anyone of these teams can win out and lose out. Clemson was the team to beat and they are gone. If and unranked team can take off the juggernaut USC at the the coliseum then FSU can beat any team even with the hardest SOS here on out.

by Desman on Oct 24, 2008 10:00 AM EDT reply actions

damn right

I’m more excited than worried that the SOS is going way up, despite the potential for disaster. If we want to be “back”, we have to get through a stretch of games like this with a good record. If the Noles can’t do it, then it obviously hasn’t happened yet.

by Mongo314 on Oct 24, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Im not saying we are going to get through it. I have faith in FSU. I love FSU. But the truth is we will prob lost 2 of the last few games. My point is that we might lost them but at the same time we could also win them. not because anyone can win any game but the truth is we are as good if not better than all the teams other than UF that one we might need some luck and a lot of help from something higher. I wouldnt count ous out yet.

by Desman on Oct 24, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions