Here it is again!  The preview and open game thread. 

I didn't have a ton of time to throw this together, but I did spend a ton of time thinking about this game.  FSU has not won as a ranked team at home since 2006 against Rice.  If we want to go to Tampa for the ACCCG, we need to take care of business here.  The Noles are favored by 5 points, and the total is 44.  

Make sure to see what we've already done for this game:

• Revealed that FSU has the toughest remaining schedule
• Talked about the importance of tempering expectations
• Had a great interview with F4H of Gobbler Country
• Put up the weekly contest and:
  
• Gave my week 9 picks

First, let's take a look at what some predictions:

Phil Steele:

VT got not one but TWO interception returns for TD’s and had a short FG set up by a fumbled kick return and still lost 28-23 to BC last week! They trailed North Carolina 17-3 on the road and only won after NC lost its starting QB to injury. Look for the Seminoles to make a statement here. PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 27 Virginia Tech 13

Heather Dinich

Florida State 24, Virginia Tech 20 -- Tyrod Taylor cannot beat the Seminoles alone. Not in Doak Campbell. With or without Dekoda Watson, Mickey Andrews & Co. will force Taylor to throw it, and Myron Rolle will be waiting for it.

I'm a little concerned here.  Almost all media members are choosing the Noles.  The numbers I posted yesterday indicate that despite their lofty rankings in a multitude of statistical categories, the Noles have been doing a bit of a smoke and mirrors act. 

You probably didn't come here for other pundit's predictions.  You came here to get my thoughts, and that is what you will get here. 

A quick check of the weather:

Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee , FL Updated: 10/23/08 5:44 PM ET

Lo: 46°F Hi: 78°F Precip: 10%

That's a good sign.  Rain favors the team with the more mobile QB.

What about injuries?

Va Tech doesn't have many recent injuries.  They lost a part time starting RB for the season, and their starting center has a bum ankle who is questionable for this game.  Va Tech has gone through a ton of early season injuries, and the impact of those still lingers. 

Florida State will be without OG Will Furlong, OLB Dekoda Watson, and WR Bert Reed.  Furlong hurts from a depth standpoint, but I actually like Spurlock better as the player.  Watson is a big loss from a potential standpoint.  When he is healthy and on the field, he is a beast.  The problem is that he is rarely on the field.  FSU is very deep at LB, and this loss shouldn't kill us.  Watson says he will go, but put me squarely in the camp that wants him to sit out and get healthy for the stretch.  Reed is out for um, "academics."  Luckily, FSU is very deep at WR. 

Where can you see the game on TV?

I won't be doing a liveblog for this game, but I do welcome all members of our community to get in on the act.

Hmm, that doesn't bode well for much of Tomahawk Nation.

So, you'll need ESPN Gameplan in a large part of the country. 

What will happen when FSU has the ball?  What will Jimbo dial up?

I'm very impressed with what Jimbo has done so far this year.  He's done an excellent job of working around our deficiencies and taking advantage of our strengths. 

Credit: Phil Sears, Democrat.

We are going to try to run the football, but our offensive line is not very good.  Sure, they've impressed this year, relative to expectations, but they still aren't an above average unit. 

I expect us to run a lot of zone, depending on Christian to make the right decision when choosing to keep or give to Antone Smith.  VT's defensive line is very good, as I discussed earlier this week.  We can attack them in two ways.  First, we can spread them and make them defend the run with 6 or 7 in the box.  This can work as it gives our young line a decent chance to make their correct reads.  Anything that allows Christian Ponder to diagnore the play is a good thing for us.  I hope we do spread Va Tech, get at their legs, and force them to chase the play.

The other option is the standard I formation.  I do not think this will get the job done.  We can run the lead draw out of this, but we probably can't get much done with off tackle type plays.  The option out of this look could be effective if Christian actually pitches the ball to Antone for once. 

Do I expect us to gash Va Tech for yards on the ground?  No.  They will load up to stop the ground game, and that is okay.  We want them to load up, because committing extra men should open the passing game.  The fact is that their front 7 could probably stop our run game by themselves, so why not allow them to move extra men into the box?  Let's at leat keep the illusion of a run game going.

So, the goals for the FSU running game?

• 55% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 2 or more yards (win first down).  This seems like a strange goal, but it is all about staying out of 3rd and long.
  
• 60% conversions running on 3rd/ 4th & 2 or less
  
• 1 or fewer fumbles (Not fumbles lose, but Fumbles)
• 40 yards rushing from Christian

This game will probably fall on the shoulders of CP7

Christian has progressed quite a bit as a passer since the ugly Wake game.  He hit some throws against Colorado, hit some bigger throws on 3rd down against Miami in a downpour, and lit up NC State.  

Va Tech ranks 79th in opponent adjusted pass efficiency defense.  That doesn't mean that they are a bad pass defense.  It does mean that they've played a very good schedule and have allowed some passing yards.  Virginia Tech is talented, smart, and aggressive, sometimes overly-so.  They are not going to let Ponder bubble them to death.  Miami was stubborn, and NC State didn't have the athletes, so they allowed us to hit those.  They will not consistently be there in this game.

Va Tech runs a lot of different stuff on defense, and none of it is overly complicated.  They are execution oriented, as opposed to scheme oriented.  Va Tech will blitz from anywhere at any time.  They will look to confuse our young offensive line.  They will zone blitz.  I hate to say it, but we likely cannot pass protect against Va Tech.  Knowing this, why not let them blitz and give us single coverage?  They want to produce results like this:

They are going to make us hit stuff over the middle.  Ponder will have to make quick decisions.  He can't rely on his pre-snap reads.  He must quickly diagnose the post-snap reads as well.  Proper progression preparedness from Ponder will be pviotal in this game.  Va Tech runs man and zone, and sometimes runs man-zone.  I can't tell you what will be there every play. 

I can tell you what I think will be open.  Make that WHO will be open.  

That's right.  Old Man Smooth. 

Corey Surrency is the most talented offensive player on this team.  Most people on the inside will tell you that.  They were shocked when he dropped 2 balls last game.  Va Tech's defensive backs are extremely aggressive.  Corey will get single coverage.  He will have to make a play or two for us to win this game.  He does a great job of using his body to position himself for the catch.  He will make that catch.

We're fast becoming an excellent screen team.  Expect us to run the middle screen 3 or 4 times in this ballgame, to take advantage of our quick offensive linemen and Va Tech's aggresisveness. 

What are some reasonable goals for the passing offense?

• No more than .33 drop per 5 throws (works out to 2 or less per 35 throws)
  
• QB Rating of 105+   Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that.
• No careless throws into the flat.  This is big, since Va Tech scores a lot on defense. 
  
• Special Sack Rate  (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 8%.  Yes, 8%, they could get to us.
  
• 7.5 Yards per Attempt
• No fumbles
• 2 plays with 15+ YAC
• No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 10 passes
• No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you)

General Offensive Goals

• 4.5 YPP
• No more than 5 non-forced offensive penalties (I do not count O-PI here, so we are mainly talking about Personal Fouls, False Starts, Illegal formation, etc)
• Less than 2 turnovers
• No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph)
• 60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing)

What will happen on offense?  We will play an ugly game.  Our running game will not perform very well, but we will stick to it, in order to stay out of 3rd and death situations.  I think we will run the ball 32 times for 112 yards, including sacks.  We'll throw the ball 33 times for 247 yards.  Our percentage will be pretty bad, but we will hit some big plays.  I really hope Ponder can scramble and throw on the run, as our pass protection will probably not go very well.  I'm not super concerned about turnovers as long as they aren't behind the line of scrimmage.  We need to make sure not to have blindside sacks turn into fumbles, and can't have any bubble screens picked off.  My best guess is that we score 23 points. 

What about when the Hokies have the ball?

A lot of people have stated that we need to play zone against their stud "QB" Tyrod Taylor.  I like the idea of playing some zone, but I doubt we'd be very good running it as our primary defense with so little prep time. Good zone teams take time to develop the continuity required to play as a unit. These guys are so schooled in their man scheme, I doubt we could all of a sudden switch.

With that in mind, we'd need to use this more as a surprise, than a base.  If Tyrod gets a lot of looks at a poorly run Zone defense, he'll probably pick it apart, even though he looks to be only a runner to this point. If we use it to surprise him, however, we might just get some picks, or some sacks.

My best guess is that we will use a variety of blitz packages. This will open up some lanes for him to escape, and might leave us exposed.  I'm actually okay with that, however, for a few reasons. First, these Va Tech receivers are not impressive at all on film. They are in fact, freshmen. I think PRob, Carter, and Mangum can cover them without a lot of trouble. That's usually my major worry when we blitz, and here, I'm not scared.  They also haven't shown a willingness to hit the tight end.

I hope we blitz intelligently. To me, this means varying your blitz, and blitzing with purpose. Don't show the blitz every time. Show and come, Show and Back out, Don't show and come. We did this very well against Miami. We need to blitz with an idea in mind as well. This means directional blitzing. We need to force Tyrod to a side, and roll our coverage to that side. Want to throw across your body to a group of freshmen wideouts on the road? Fine by me. This mindless running at the QB, however, with no idea where he will end up, won't get it done.

Most will say that we have to keep him in the pocket, but I am not sure that is the way to go. Our defensive linemen aren't wired to maintain gap integrity. Instead, let's play aggressively, bring a strong presence from one side, flush him, roll coverage, and play the percentages game. This will require an understanding from the defense, however, that we don't always show. We can play man to this with the corners, but you have to have everyone else working in sync.

The real key to stopping Tyrod, however, isn't really stopping him at all.  What???  No, the real key will be stopping their RB, Darren Evans.  We didn't do a good job of stopping NC State's running game.  If we take away their running threat on the zone-keeper read, we can start to key on Tyrod.  To do this, we will need our defensive tackles and strongside end (Neefy) to play well.  They are bigger than us.  BCBeat them by being even bigger (two 325+ LB defensive tackles) .  We will need to beat them up front by being quicker off the snap.  Hopefully the crowd will help us win the battle up front.  

Mickey and co have no excuse for getting lit up by Taylor.  With that in mind, what are our goals?

The Goals for the Seminole Rushing Defense:

• Keep VT in 2nd and long: 33% of First Down Rushes for 1 or fewer yards.  (The STUFFED %)
• Use penetration to get stops: 40% Win Rate on 3rd+ 4th n short rushing
• Tackle Well: Less than 10 missed tackles (A Mickey Andrews Goal)
• Don't have your good work go for naught: 2 or fewer draws of 3rd and 8 or Longer for first downs.
• Contain Taylor.  Make this kid throw.  He looks horrible on tape.
• No rushing TD's in the red zone.  Make VT throw the ball.
• Take good angles to the football: No more than 4 runs over 15 yards and no runs over 35 yards. 

The benchmarks for the FSU Pass Defense

• No good day: Taylor under a QB Rating of 100 overall.
• Limit Big Plays:  no more than 5 passes of 15+ yards
• Selective Pass Interference: do not give up the deep ball.  If they do throw it, interfere like crazy. 
  
• Hit Taylor: Play to the echo of the whistle.  Have a sack rate (sacks / (pass plays + sacks)) of 7.5% or more.  As Mickey said... "you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen...."
• Be studs on 3rd down: make the tackle when they throw underneath and don't allow them to get the 3rd down.  Limit Taylor to double digit QB rating on 3rd down.
• Do not fall for play action on short yardage downs: DB's rarely make these plays but are usually the ones burned for trying to help out too much. 
  
• Confuse Taylor.  Mix the coverages enough to confuse Willson.  I'm annoyed that we give away our blitz too early.  Let's wait to walk down, and at other times walk down and then back out.
• Create 2 turnovers.

Final Goals For FSU's defense

• LESS THAN 4.25 YPP
  
• No Plays of 50+ Yards.  I doubt VT can repeatedly drive on this team.  Let's make them try. 
  
• 10 "Stops" Mickey defines a stop as a turnover, punt, or a surrender on downs.  That's fine by me. 
  
• Less than 50% Red Zone TD Scoring
• No scores off sudden change (make VT get a first down off a turnover.  Do not allow the home run after a turnover)
• Hold VT under 300 yards.  Mickey's goal is 300, and that is generous.  This team has been way lucky so far to get their yards and wins.
  

So, what will happen here?  Mickey will have the defense ready.  They will have lapses in discipline and contain at times, and sometimes our LB's will get engulfed by their OL's.  In the end, however, this game is in the Doak.  VT has a RB with a rocket inaccurate arm playing QB.  They will run the ball 32 times for 155 yards, while throwing 28 times for 140 yards.  They will rack up 20 points, as FSU wins by 3, 23-20.

This game will be marred by 2 kinds of ugly.  Tackles for loss, sacks, turnovers, scrambles, big plays, and qb's making throws on the run will rule the day. 

I'll be at the game and will not be live blogging.  All we need here is a win, and I don't care how we get it.  Everyone agrees that we match up great here, but I am not feeling that quite so much at this point.  Let's just get a win.

There are 2 things that must be done:

The Nigel Bradham Forecast: Someone needs to alert us when Nigel goes into Beast Mode.  He does this on facebook, before the game, via his blackberry.  As always, the NB Forecast is Pain.

Curtain Jerker's WWF clip.  CJ, please post the video as a "FANSHOT", an option available along the right side of the front page.

UPDATE:  CJ came through, as we knew he would:

Randy Orton - Seize The Day (via rhomdizzale2)

It took some time for me to come up with this clip. I decided to focus on Myron Rolle, who came in with a TON of promise (#1 player in his high school class), had some initial success, then was fairly uneven until this season, where he's been a pass-deflecting machine while stuffing the run admirably.

This is his breakout year, and I compared him to a young wrestler who had success very early in his career but then wandered the wrestling wilderness for a few years until he became a bonified main-eventer.

Let me tell you the story of Randy Orton. He's the son of Cowboy Bob Orton, and his grandfather and uncle also wrestled. He became the champ at 24 - the youngest ever. Then, after a test run with the belt, he would be an afterthough on the main event scene. Sure, he wrestled well, much like Myron played well the last two seasons, but anyone who say him KNEW that better days were ahead. Much like Myron...

Fast foward to October of 2007 (after the video was made). Orton beats Triple H in Chicago at No Mercy (I was there and it was a fantastic match) to become WWE Champion. He stayed champ until April of 2008, winning at Wrestlemania in the process. Orton has solidified his status as a superstar in every sense of the word, and I think Myron will as well, be it on a NFL gridiron or in the medical field. The sky's the limit for both Orton (who's only 28) and Myron. Both men just have to tap their endless potential.

Go Noles!

Curtain Jerker

Great job as always, CJ.