My opening thoughts on FSU's Hokie Knockout
by Bud Elliott on Oct 26, 2008 10:17 PM EDT
in FSU Football
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PrintI just got back in. That was an enjoyable game, and it was great to see my family. The Seminoles took care of business yesterday, winning an ugly defensive battle 30-20. We are now #15 in the country, the first place team in the ACC Atlantic Division (Thanks to Miami for wiping Wake).
Protection Issues
I won't pull any punches here. We were outplayed for the majority of this game. Anyone who thinks we are a very good team should go back and read the Kool-Aid Debate. You guys knew this was probably coming. Here's a sample:
These fronts [the defensive lines in the upcoming games] will brutalize McMahon and probably the 3 18-yearolds as well. We won't have much of a pocket to step up in. Expect to see some fumbles as Ponder is hit from the blind side. This could get ugly. We're going to have to win some ugly ballgames, with a lot of clock grinding, running, and punting.
Our offensive line play is horrendous. That is about all I can say. With the Notable exception of Rodney Hudson, we can't block people with the kind of consistency that is required to win ballgames against good teams.
I've been extremely impressed with Ponder. I don't really get the happy feet comments. He has free rushers running full speed at him. It would be a mistake to stand in the pocket under that type of pressure. He finished 11-19, for 159, 1 TD, and no Picks. That's a QB rating of 145 He didn't even throw a ball that was close to being intercepted. That's the highest QB rating against a non-Duke ACC opponent in the last 2 years.
Yet, there is a serious problem. Ponder is taking a beating. 4 sacks on 19 pass attempts is a SEVENTEEN percent sack rate. That is pathetic. I like Trickett a lot, and it angers me that the cupboard was left so bare by the previous administration. It's pretty obvious that our offensive line recruits are not as talented as the young kids at UGA or UF. If you're going to start young kids, they need to be studs. We look like we have 6 tight ends playing at once. These guys looked slow out there, and we can't afford to have waifish linemen play slow.
We know that Hudson is a stud, that McMahon doesn't have the talent to play D1 ball at a high level, but the great unknown will be answered this offseason. Can these guys put on weight? If they turn out to be Furlong types, unable to add muscle and keep it on, we could be in trouble. It is way too early to make that call, but we can't automatically assume that they will all improve with an offseason, because we've seen one guy not improve, and one guy not be able to get considerably bigger.
If Even when Ponder gets rid of the ball, he is taking huge kill shots. Unless the O-Line plays a lot better, we will lose to Ga Tech in embarrassing, inept fashion. I'm glad that this isn't a national TV game. Instead of holding penalties, our offensive line put up numbers in a different column: sacks allowed. I'm so glad that the media emphasizes penalties so much! Ask yourself this question:
What would you rather have?
1st and 20, without a killshot on the quarterback, and no fumble from a blindside hit.
or
2nd and 18, with a killshot on the QB and the possibility of an injury from the blindside hit.
Give me the first and 20. Please return to the practice of holding. We've already established that the officials will not call holding on every play, and holding may be the only thing that keeps Christian upright.
OUTPLAYED
Watching this game, I truly believe we were lucky to walk away with the win. What did we do better than they did?
First Downs: VT- 15, FSU -13
Rushing: VT 82, FSU 89
Passing: VT 161, FSU 159
Net yards per punt: VT 38.6, FSU 38.6
Average starting field position: VT- VT 36, FSU- FSU 36
Possession was within 2 minutes.
Honestly, we won this game because VT had bad fumble luck, because we were at home (and goodness gracious do our Alumni sections suck. Try making some noise when we are on defense. Try standing up for an important play. I'm not saying paint your body, but just give a little effort.), and because we have an NFL kicker, an NFL Defensive End, and because we used our #2 QB by choice, not by force.
If Glennon stays in that game, I am convinced that we lose something along the lines of 24-17. They say that winning masks everything. That is not what this site is about. If you want to read about how the Noles have an outside shot at the MNC, go read the TC. Va Tech played better than we did, for the most part. I'll never turn down a Seminole win, but I also won't assume that we can get lucky in our coming games, and I will not pretend that we played well.
Over half of our offense came on 3 plays! That's not a recipe for success. You can't count on that happening every week. If Ponder were to get hurt, we would lose every remaining game on our schedule by double digits.
We saw this coming, part 2
I am not angry at our offensive performance, because I expected it. In The Preview, I wrote:
We will play an ugly game. Our running game will not perform very well, but we will stick to it, in order to stay out of 3rd and death situations...
FSU ran the ball 38 times, and ran on over half of the 2nd and 8+ downs.
Our percentage will be pretty bad, but we will hit some big plays. I really hope Ponder can scramble and throw on the run, as our pass protection will probably not go very well. I'm not super concerned about turnovers as long as they aren't behind the line of scrimmage. We need to make sure not to have blindside sacks turn into fumbles, and can't have any bubble screens picked off.
Our percentage was bad (11-19), and most of our success did occur on big plays (87 of Ponder's 159 throwing yards came on 2 plays). Virginia Tech took away the bubble screens, and made Ponder throw the ball over the middle, and down the field. He didn't have any dangerous throws.
Some awesome quotes:
Discussing a question regarding punishing Tyrod Taylor, FSU Defensive Coordinator Mickey Andrews said (paraphrasing here):
...you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen....
"Getting to the quarterback and not just getting him on the ground, but putting him out -- that's what Florida State defense is all about"_ Everette Brown
I'm not going to root for an injury, but I am fully in favor of intimidating opposing teams.
Tomahawk Nation Members Speak Out
FSUed has been all over TNation recently, so we will start with him.
Glennon has that look that says "I’m not going to let this opportunity get away from me." Wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead a game-winning drive in this game.
Our O-line is every bit as over matched as I feared.
We MUST take a shot deep to loosen up their D — even if it’s a max protect, two guys in the route play.
Where is the bubble screen (or ANY screens), I know they are zone blitzing on third down, but we could run it on first or second down.
1) This is the first game I didn’t see real improvement by Ponder. He held the ball too long, didn’t runwith good vision, got happy feet too early. He really seemed to be playing scared — trying to NOT make a bad play. Of course, that could be the reason we won the game, but I don’t know. Not a step forward for Ponder.
2) Of course, part of the problem is that our O-Line continue to be overmatched. When we run left, we have a chance, but otherwise, no push, poor protection, we don’t pick up the blitz very well (the one play when A. Smith gave the blitzer a good shot was telling — he jolted him, then just released him rather than sustaining the block. I think we could be called for holding EVERY PLAY — yes, that may be true of all O-lines, but it’s especially true of ours.
3) Defense was as good in the second half as it was lousy in the first — less than 50 yards offense. I do think that the Taylor injury actually worked against us — when you spend the week scheming for an offense you don’t end up seeing, it has to throw you off.
4) Was surprised by Jimbo’s scheme — where was the option? The zone read? (saw it just a couple times and only once did Ponder keep it). Screens? Reverses? It seems to me that’s how you protect a weak O-line, lots of misdirection. Slow them down.
5) It was nice to see Thacker make a play.
6) Brown is — as my 10 year old would say — a beast.
7) Wish we take a few shots deep EARLY in the game to loosen up the defense.
8) Very disturbing to see how poorly we defended the option with Ga. Tech up next.
I'll respond in numerical fashion
1. I have to disagree. Jimbo wants Christian to read coverage, but he is under such pressure (some of the worst OLine play I've ever seen, and most of it is related to physical ability and inexperience.), and he simply cannot set his feet. Ponder will probably get hurt at some point. I think he took a step forward by throwing the ball down the field well, and by not making any dangerous throws. Undoubtedly, he realized that playing conservative ball could win this game. I expected a low percentage performance, but decent results, and he produced big time. He was late diagnosing some stuff, but let's see #2 for a reason why he may have had divided attention.
Bobby said "this is the first QB since Weinke that a team would rally around."
2. Bingo. I wrote about this in the opening section
3. Probably so. Poor personnel use on the big pass play though. Why is Garvin in against a 2WR set?
4. I'll reserve judgment on this, for now, until I watch film, but I did want to see more of that.
5. Nod.
6. Brown is the best defensive player we have had in a long time. Check out this quote:
"That was the most one-on-one blocking I've faced all year and Virginia Tech did a lot of things to try to prevent it without double-teaming me so they could use all their guys on offense. It seems that Virginia Tech is not a TNation reader. If they were, they would realize that you need to block Brown with at least 2 men, and preferably a Guard and Tackle. Dumb Hokies. 7. Spot on. Let's go early. Ponder did show the arm to make the deep throw, and teams will have to prep for it. 8. We should not be favored against GTech. I'll speak of this more later. TrueCubbie and Renegade11 were unhappy with the first half playcalling, Also, thanks to Renegade11 for providing updates. EVERYYONE is in love with Gano. I can't really disagree here. TrueCubbie was pretty prophetic with this gem at the half: ...take some shots down the field on 1st down. We can make plays in single coverage. and keep the pressure on Glennon. Their tackles are starting to look outmatched as well. The bomb to Carr was on first down, and Everette Brown showed his first round pick status. ALL Members (including Robbrt, CJ, and Truecolors) voiced questions about our defensive playcalling, while wondering how much of it was related to the changing QB's. They all will take the win as well. NacFSU: We played OK today, but I think we were lucky that Verdell knocked Taylor out so early. We didn’t do well against the run when they got outside. It would be nice if we could string together 2 good halves of football. I'm glad we're improving in the second half, as it shows good coaching. GT might shred us. Mongo314: Offensively, we improved after a horrible 1st quarter, but the O-line just wasn’t very good. It will be hard to keep winning when defenders seem to run right through them with ease. It would be nice if the running game had a little more consistency. It seems like we either get negative yards or more than 5 yards. Yeah, a feast or famine running game isn't ideal. The offensive line is pretty atrocious, but we expected that going into this game. PewterPirate55
I think GA Tech might have been bitten a little while looking ahead to FSU. I am sure they will come out next week loaded for bear. After the last few years I am finally beginning to see their stock rising and younger talent is finally maturing.
One question … Do you think if Jimbo goes to Head Coach over the off season that Tommy Bowden could be the new offensive coordinator? This could tremendously help out recruiting if so. Tommy and Jimbo both recruiting would pull in a lot of quality recruits.
GT was probably looking ahead. UVA runs a 3-4 as well, which is a different look to go against.
As for the Tommy question, I'm not sure. My gut says no way. I don't think the Admin wants to through Bowden drama once Bobby leaves. That's not a shot, but some people are tired of it.
I really love ZEST's take:
It seemed to me like Ponder was scrambling for his life on every single passing play. I don’t think that means the O-line played "okay" in pass blocking situations. It tells me they were absolutely horrible. For the most part, I feel like the RB’s and WR’s played pretty well, and Ponder played well considering he was rolling out of the pocket literally every passing play. The OL is showing signs of their youth, and having Furlong out didn’t help the matter. They’ll get better, I just hope it happens quickly.
D showed flashes of being awesome and let up on a few plays. Overall, I thought they played a good game.
Graham Gano is the best and most important player on the team. I almost threw up when they said he hurt himself during pregame kicking drills.
I think I agree with the whole thing.
TurfToe echoed a lot of thoughts that we've all head, but pay attention to his remark at the end:
We needed that one. The D line looked really good. Brown is a freekin beast. The inexperience of the O-line really showed in this game. Its good that they got some experience facing a pretty decent D-line. I would have like to see more balls thrown down field instead of throwning in the backfield againsts that type of D. O-line needs to keep improving and special teams needs some work. I really liked how the noles took advantage after the personal foul agains Gano. I wonder why they didnt use Garvin that much in the return game. Parker needs to grow his hair back so he get get back into his groove. Awsome catch by Easterling in the enzone! Him and Carr really have stepped up their games. Ill be at the game next week and I cant wait to taunt the student section! It looked like it was going to be a meaningfull game until GT lost, homecoming no less. Hopefully half the statium will be filled with Nole fans. Cant wait!
Interesting...
User Weasie:
I can’t really tell if finally being on everyone’s radar screens helps or hurts us. I will say that I was very happy to see the reemergence of the deep threat.
Someone else was excited to see the deep threat:
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2008/10/21/639967/what-has-happened-to-going
That's it for now. More to come throughout the week. I need to watch the tape.
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smoke and mirrors
I agree with much that I have read here. I’ll add this – the talent pool is pretty shalllow at FSU these days. The past 5 years have really hurt. As for our current record and ranking – I beleive it’s smoke & mirrors. 2 wins came against BAD 1-AA teams and we play in a bad football conference (mediocre at best). This team being ranked 15th is a joke. Does anyone have any doubt what the outcome (and by how much) will be when we play UF.
Comments about the O-line are pretty much dead on I think. A long way to go, but we may be heading in the right direction. Future recruiting should focus on some O-line.
I agree somewhat, but I don’t think the Talent pool is shallow.
The defense is very talented and plays as such. The OLine has decent talent, but is extremely young. I don’t expect them to play well this season. Ponder is an absolute stud, and probably the best QB in the ACC. The skill guys are pretty talented as well.
Also,
many do think we can beat UF. I do not, but I’m not sure it will be a 40-10 type situation either.
Our current ranking is based more on the losses of the teams in front of us than by our own merit. I think that very few actually want to rank us that high, but have no one to place above us. FSU hasn’t looked “good” in any of its games. Despite that we have been winning by playing solid defense, scoring points basically every time we have a chance(thanks to one of the best kickers in the country), taking advantage of mistakes, and, in the last couple of games, protecting the football. I wouldn’t be surprised if we went undefeated through the rest of the ACC schedule without ever actually looking “good”. I do think we have a chance against UF. They are a better team, but it will at the very least be a fight.
Happy feet (apologies to Steve Martin)
Happy feet is probably not the best way to describe what I’m seeing in Ponder. For me, it’s actually a flashback to the Rix era — he always tried to scramble OUTSIDE the oncoming defensive end. This often meant he would end up 20 yards behind the LOS where it’s tough to avoid grounding and certainly impossible to complete passes.
Against Miami, Ponder was stepping up into the pocket and finding running lanes. By trying to roll outside the DE’s, he is no longer a threat to run, all he can do is lob it out of bounds or attempt a risky completion.
Also, sometimes — even given the swiss cheese blocking of our Oline — he bolts when the pocket is holding. Of course, it’s easy to understand why this would happen, I just wish he would be as strategic about his scrambling as he was vs. Miami.
Finally, he did hold the ball Saturday more than previous games. There were times when he made a nice subtle slide to buy some time and still couldn’t find anybody.
I don’t know, he just seemed off to me overall. Easterling bailed him out — we caught some jump balls and that made his stats look better, but there weren’t a lot of plays where we really executed a route to an open receiver. Not a step back, mind you, but not a step forward either, imo.
One thing not reflected in my post is this — there is definitely a different aura about this team. Still, the cynical side of me says that when we lose next, we might really get on a losing streak.
Watching us play right now is like watching a golfer in the U.S. Open who keeps scratching out pars even though he’s not hitting it very well. You just know that when that first bogey comes, the floodgates will open and he’ll shoot 80.
We need to keep scratching out pars until our offensive lineman gain about 30 pounds of muscle each. Hmmmm. Guess that will be next year, huh?
I can buy the argument that our wideouts helped him out. They definitely made some nice catches (the one Carr grab and the 2 Easterling gems). They haven’t played a game like that in a while, however, and they were definitely due to play up to their talent level. I expect them to play like that.
On the positive side, Ponder didn’t force balls. He also didn’t find the open man on a consistent basis.
Here’s an interesting note: Ponder didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday, and looked poor on Wed. He is getting incredibly beat up, and I can’t help but to think that he is hesitant to step up in the pocket because of the killshots he is taking, if there even is a pocket, which is debatable. As a QB, he is supposed to read coverage, but he can’t as he is having to evade rushers like crazy. We called 28 pass plays, and I wonder how many of those plays offered anything resembling a “pocket.” There must be some baseline level of expectancy, in terms of “I know the pocket will be there”, in order to have the trust to step up. I do worry that he is getting gunshy, and I doubt that he can make it through the year behind this line.
The US Open analogy is good.
Even if our guys had one more year of life, and 15 lbs, we’d be a lot better.
by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Spot on
Your Ponder critique is spot on, it’s not happy feet, he just seems to roll out right into the rush. He might wanna try rolling to the left every once in a while, too. And like you said, running back 10-15 yards to get around the rush is helping nothing. Might as well throw it out of bounds every time. Plus, DVo needs to take Ponder across the street to the ballpark and show him how to slide. Good lord, man, get down!
I don’t agree on the Open analogy. I think this team has an intestinal fortitude that previous teams lacked. I think they could handle a loss and bounce back. Now, if the turnover floodgates open … well, then we’re really in a bucket of syrup because we’ve been scratching out these wins despite playing turnover-free ball.
Thoughts
Rolling left will be key. You need to be able to scramble left, middle, and right.
I wonder how much of his deep drops are a result of the lack of protection in the middle, in previous games. By that I mean, out protection in the middle has been pretty poor, and Ponder might be developing the habit of dropping deeper to buy more time; time he doesn’t always buy as a result of the changed angles.
With the turnovers, I’m not so sure you can predict them.
by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
from what I can tell rolling left wasn't as good an option in this (VT) game.
The appeared to me to find a weakness at our RT and the just kept thumping it on that side, leaving Macho in man coverage on the same side, and the help on the left side. We just had to get the ball out quick on that side….
any word on the starting RT coming back?
Zebrie wasn't injured to my knowledge, he was just pulled for a bit to settle him down.
Now that I am watching the tape, your observation appears to be correct (regarding the roll left).
GTech, however, doesn’t have the horses to do what VT did, schematically.
by Bud Elliott on Oct 29, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
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