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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

Week 9 CBS Sports Blogpoll Draft Ballot

This is not a power poll.  I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are.  I only rank teams based on their resume.  The poll is designed to be dynamic.  I try to start from scratch every week.  I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances.  I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams.  As always, I want your help.  Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y."  I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change."  Power poll rankings are dumb.  The teams ranked 1, 3, 4, 13, 20 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend.  I do not consult major polls when doing this.  Their record of futility is clear.  Let the teams earn their rankings on the field.  I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible.  This system is not perfect.

Themes:

I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.

I am really punishing these mid majors for their schedule strength.  While big boy teams battle through their conference schedules, teams like Ball State play schedule padding fodder.  There is no way these teams could hang with the big conference guys on a week to week basis.  The attrition would eat them alive.  I did not forget to rank Tulsa and Ball State. 

FSU: We have a chance to move up a ton in the coming weeks.  Right now, however, our loss to Wake looks terrible, and our Colorado win is less impressive.  The main reason I am not ranking FSU higher, however, is that we've only played 7 games, while most other teams have played 8 or 9.  Those extra win points help those other clubs.

Rankings by Conference (top 15 in parenthesis)

B 12: 5 (5)

SEC: 3 (3)

ACC: 5 (0)

Pac 10: 3 (1)

Big 10 4 (4)

Big East: 1 (0)

MWest: 2 (1)

WAC: 1 (0)

 

RankTeamSagarin SOS
1 Texas 18
2 Alabama 49
3 Penn State 64
4 Texas Tech 91
5 Southern Cal 6
6 Oklahoma 41
7 Florida 24
8 Oklahoma State 46
9 Georgia 23
10 Ohio State 16
11 TCU 100
12 Michigan State 30
13 North Carolina 22
14 Minnesota 69
15 Missouri 31
16 Boise State 110
17 Utah 85
18 Oregon 54
19 California 59
20 Maryland 80
21 Georgia Tech 79
22 West Virginia 89
23 Florida State 113
24 Virginia 2
25 Virginia Tech 21
**Please note that I start over each week**

This is just the DRAFT, with your help, I will make changes and resubmit by Wed.  Remember to help in the context of resume ranking.  Let's talk about a team's resume.

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Comments

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Hmm

Okay… Ohio State at 10 baffles me… they only put up 6 on Penn State, at home. If you’re going to put them that high, then put Missouri higher since they have two quality losses. Boise should be above TCU. The Broncos have played a decent schedule, and TCU beat BYU, a team that you keep telling me had no business in the poll, so why are they so high, and Utah and Boise aren’t?

I’m okay with your reasoning behind FSU, fwiw… but Georgia Tech shouldn’t be at 21 after losing to Virginia… granted the Cavs are on a hot streak, but they’re a 3 loss team and they lost to Duke.

"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton

by NoleCC on Oct 27, 2008 10:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Ohio State will get another look.

I buy your Boise argument to an extent, but TCU has played the #100 schedule, while Boise has played the #110. I also need to fix the chart, TCU is not undefeated.

I will take another look at Ga Tech.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Meh

I’d probably have FSU at No. 18. All those teams above FSU I think have more embarrassing losses. Yeah, and Ohio State should be lower, probably around 12, I’d move Utah and TCU above them. West Virginia is a joke (ECU and Colorado losses). Throw Ball or Tulsa in there.

Of course we have a fundamental difference in how we view mid-majors. I’ll never buy the “Tulsa’s (insert any team) not in the BCS, so we can’t rank them argument.” They are in the conference they are in and they can do nothing about it in the middle of the year. Because of the weekly grind, going unbeaten is the hardest thing a team can do — whether they are in the Sun Belt or the SEC. If it were easy we’d see unbeaten teams in the MAC and Sun Belt every year. Whatever, we won’t see eye-to-eye on this.

by hopnole23 on Oct 27, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Okay

Thanks for the thoughts.

It seems OSU should be lower, as most commentators have concurred.

I’m not making the “not in the BCS, can’t rank them” argument, but rather, the “they play NOBODY”, so they will not be ranked. I happily rank Boise, Utah, and TCU, as they’ve at least played decent squads, and each took care of business or held their own (TCU).

Let’s put Tulsa and Ball State in a different light:

If any team in a major conference played their schedule, wouldn’t they be crucified in the media? NO team currently in this poll would have any trouble running through their two schedules unbeaten, and I think that says something about the evolution of our poll, as the resume system starts to produce a de facto power poll.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

???

from the bottom up…

Va. and VaTech should not be in there…period.

FSU behind WVU, GaTech, Oregon, Cal, & Maryland?????

UNC should not be in there…let alone that high!

The rest is a matter of debate, but looks fine.

by truecolors on Oct 27, 2008 1:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Response

In the interest of consistency, I’m not docking Va Tech heavily for the loss to the Noles. In the same vein, I did not reward them heavily for coming back to beat UNC only after UNC’s QB went out via injury. Ditto the Noles not getting much credit for beating Va Tech. Va Tech outplayed FSU until their 2nd qb broke his leg.

Virginia gets credit for facing the #2 schedule in America and coming away with a winning record. The loss to UConn does hurt.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you’re being overly critical on FSU since you’re a fan. We are top 20, at the very least.

by pbysh on Oct 27, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Is our resume top 20?

Only 4 wins (I do not consider 1-AA wins)
1 poor loss, at home.

As I mentioned above, we have a shot to skyrocket up the charts. We close with the toughest schedule in the entire nation (see a few posts back). If we do well against that, the Noles will shoot up.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

better than some other teams

West Virginia is ranked directly above us, and they are 5-2, with their wins being:

Villanova (… yeah)
Marshall (3-4)
Rutgers (3-5, AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL team and it wasn’t even a solid win)
Syracuse (1-6… yeah)
Auburn (4-4 easily the most overrated SEC team this year, don’t even have a semblance of an offense)

In addition to this, they put up 3 POINTS (same as us against Wake Forest) against East Carolina, and lost to Colorado

Now, our wins are: Colorado, Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech. Won all of them by 2 scores except Miami and we really dominated the Miami game, it just didn’t show on the scoreboard. We lost 12-3 to wake forest with suspensions still in place and our defense still played lights out (granted Wake’s offense isn’t much anyways)

I don’t know if I’m being biased or not but in my book our resume is better than theirs. Virginia Tech alone is a MUCH better team than any of the ones they’ve played. We beat Colorado, they didn’t, and I know you can’t do that kind of math in football but it’s still there to consider.

That’s just the team that’s directly above us. I’d look into the rest but I think I’ve made my initial point. We’ve been answering the call since the Wake game.

by pbysh on Oct 27, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is what I want to see!

I’m glad someone took up the cause against WVU. I have to admit, this was a bit of a plant.

I wanted to see if we could come up with reasons, and pbysh definitely did.

The change will be made, and yes, FSU’s resume is better.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with nolecc

What the hell is Ohio State doing way up there. They were overrated comming into the season, huge loss to USC, then they were ranked were they should have been in the first place, lose to Penn St and dont even get knocked out of the top 15. They have no schedule and their conference is weak. Im so sick of OSU. There are also 2 other teams with 2 losses still in the top 15, why? I wonder whats going to happen if any of these teams take 3 losses. Are they still going to rank them in the top 20. Must be nice to have 2 mulligans. The BSC is so screwed up. It is a beauty contest. As for the Noles, I dont think they should be ranked higher then they are right now until we can continue winning games.

by TurfToe on Oct 27, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Ohio State will move down.

I admit that I was wrong on that one.

I just don’t think FSU has the resume right now but I will definitely be re-evaluting.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

big ten

i agree with most of your selections, but i dont know how i feel about a 2 loss big ten team being #12. outside of penn state this year, i have very little respect for the big ten. i think that a 2 loss Missouri team with two losses to ranked teams (Ok state and #1 Texas) should be higher than Michigan State losses coming to Cal and getting embarassed by an overrated Ohio St team. living in big ten country, Ohio, you’d think that there was only one conference in the entire country.

by Renegade11 on Oct 28, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I will take another look at Mich State

Their WINS aren’t super impressive, and you are right about Cal. I will try to look at Missou tonight.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

...

I was going to write up some resumes and make the argument that FSU should be alot higher (mid-teens). While I do think we are a lot better than some of those teams (CAL, MINN, UNC, etc) our wins suck. Our only good win is against VT and then we have second teir wins such as Miami, Col, NcSt. But really, they aren’t good. Our SOLE loss is a good loss (against a good team) but we have 2 AA wins. That just doesn’t cut it. I do think Cal should drop down because we have the same amount of games as them and one less loss (they lost to Arizona who is not very good). Anyway, I think we have to let it play out more in order for us to jump. However, I would agree, that there is NO WAY WVU should be ranked ahead of us, but you have admitted that so I have no argument.

However, I was talking to a friend and we were talking about USC’s schedule v. FSU’s. I don’t think it’s likely that we win out, in fact I think it’s improbable. However, if we were to, we would still be ranked behind USC which is complete crap. The media is biased towards USC. Lets talk about an unimpressive Resume. How Florida, Georgia and OK are ranked BEHIND them in your poll is beyond me. However, I have made this case repeatedly and you have not budged so I will not waste my time now. I do think you like USC and are blinded by their AWFUL “resume.”

by MNeilson on Oct 28, 2008 9:41 AM EDT reply actions  

uNf, glad to see you

I think you’re pretty accurate in your assessment. My only disagreements would be that I think losing to Wake at home is not a good loss, as they look pretty poor now, and I think Arizona is better than some. I will take a look at California.

I will guarantee you this: If, and it is a huge IF, but IF FSU wins out (2.5% Chance), and USC wins out, FSU will be over USC. I have to do that, because I am committed to fluidity.

I admit that I had a very tough time with the USC, UF, UGA, OK, OK ST trio. The winner of UGA/ UF will jump USC.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wake V Arizona

Wake is loosing some games, but it was our first real game and we were still playing with numerous suspensions….Anyway…

Arizona is terrible man. They have lost to Stanford, New Mexico while only beating teams like Idaho, Toledo (UCLA and Cal which we could also debate that its not all that impressive).

I can’t wait for the UF/GA game. What a great game that is shaping up to be. I do think Florida wins but It could go either way.

I would say winning out is less than a 2.5%, ha, but regardless. While I do respect your opinion it will be the AP and BCS and Coaches that will not put FSU over USC and not yours.

Have a great one.

by MNeilson on Oct 28, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions  

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