First, please read The Reaction Part 1
The BCS puts at # 15 in the country, and we are not that good yet.
Jeff Sagarin has us at #23, noting that we have played zero games against his top 30 teams, and have the #113th ranked schedule. Remember though, that we have the toughest remaining schedule in the nation.
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Some quick hitter thoughts:
- 1-11 on 3rd downs for Va Tech, and FSU's defense is the only team allowing under 20% conversions on 3rd down (17.5%)
- Jody Allen should still go. We need to stop out-kicking out coverage.
- Gano is an excellent kicker. I don't follow the national kicking scene, so I won't call him the best in America, but he is excellent.
- Jimbo said that the OLine was overwhelmed, and that Easterling is a beast.
- Jimbo clearly sounds worried about their defensive line and their ability to generate pressure without blitzing.
- We're destined for NOON RAYCOM against Clemson.
- Mickey was pleased with only 6 missed tackles, the best effort of the year, and is worried about our ability to stop the triple option, as it is difficult to simulate the triple option in real-speed with your scout team.
Let's get to the objective goals. I lay these out each week in The Preview
- 55% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 2 or more yards (win first down). This seems like a strange goal, but it is all about staying out of 3rd and long. PASS. 60% of 1st Down RB Carries went for 2+ yards.
- 60% conversions running on 3rd/ 4th & 2 or less. Fail. 1 for 2.
- 1 or fewer fumbles (Not fumbles lose, but Fumbles) Pass, though ball security is a major issue.
- 40 yards rushing from Christian. FAIL, but he is way banged up.
What are some reasonable goals for the passing offense?
- No more than .33 drop per 5 throws (works out to 2 or less per 35 throws). PASS. One drop in an impressive game from the WR's.
- QB Rating of 105+ Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that. PASS PASS PASS. 145! 11-19, 58%, 159 YDS, 1 TD 0 Int.
- No careless throws into the flat. This is big, since Va Tech scores a lot on defense. Pass
- Special Sack Rate (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 8%. Yes, 8%, they could get to us. FAIL, badly. 19 attempts, 4 sacks, 1 holding. ((4+1)/(4+19+1))= 20%. 20% is just ridiculously bad. I gave them a lot of leeway on this goal, but that was pretty bad. I'll have to adjust this goal for GTech.
- 7.5 Yards per Attempt PASS. 8.4/ ATTEMPT. This was crucial. We knew we wouldn't drive on VT, and that big plays would be key.
- No fumbles from WR's. PASS
- 2 plays with 15+ YAC. FAIL. Just didn't happen.
- No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 10 passes. Pass. Christian played a conservative game without handcuffing the offense.
- No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you) Fail. 3+ times we had enough men to block the rush, and did not get it done. Christian took a beating.
General Offensive Goals
- 4.5 YPP PASS, barely. 56 for 248 is 4.4 per play, about what we expected. I'm not coutning the awkward kneeldown.
- No more than 5 non-forced offensive penalties (I do not count O-PI here, so we are mainly talking about Personal Fouls, False Starts, Illegal formation, etc) PASS, but we needed to hold! Why not hold instead of giving up huge sacks.
- Less than 2 turnovers. PASS PASS PASS.
- No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph). PASS PASS PASS.
- 60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing). PASS. 2-3 works here.
I'm not going to do the defensive goals, as they were mostly geared to Taylor.
I watched a bit of GTech, and to be honest, I do not like our chances. They will exploit our lack of defensive discipline, and should rape our OLine while playing a lot of Zone coverage behind it. They do not need to blitz to get pressure. Injuries will play a major role, but at this point, I'd expect us to lose something like 23-13. This is not a favorable matchup for us, unfortunately. We CAN win, but expect a major challenge.
Let's go projecting!
We now sit at 6-1. Here is how I see the remaining games, in terms of chances of winning:
@ GT: 50% (generous)
@ MARYLAND 60%
UF: 25% (this is generous, let's put aside the hate and be realists).
So, that looks like we will add 2.85 wins to our total.
The most likely result is 9-3,
followed by 8-4, 10-2, 7-5, 11-1(4.5% chance), and 6-6 (0.8% chance), with the last 3 scenario's being very unlikely.
Note: experienced handicappers will tell you that a scenario like ours offers a much better chance to win 4 of the last 5 games, than a team facing 5 games with only a 57% chance of winning (2.85 projected proportional win shares distributed evenly over the remaining 5 games). So, that's good.
Will 9-3 get us to the Orange Bowl? It's very possible, as long as the 3 losses include UF, and not 3 ACC losses. 8-4 will not do the trick. 10-2 and punch your ticket.