Virginia Tech @ FSU Reaction part 2, and projection

First, please read The Reaction Part 1

The BCS puts at # 15 in the country, and we are not that good yet. 

The Jeff Cameron Show Snookers JCS Top 25 has FSU at #14. 

The Preliminary Blogpoll puts at # 18.  We were the largest mover, gaining 8 spots.

Jeff Sagarin has us at #23, noting that we have played zero games against his top 30 teams, and have the #113th ranked schedule.  Remember though, that we have the toughest remaining schedule in the nation.

Scalpem has new FSU Photo Galleries, for free.  Check those out.

Some quick hitter thoughts:

  • 1-11 on 3rd downs for Va Tech, and FSU's defense is the only team allowing under 20% conversions on 3rd down (17.5%)
  • Jody Allen should still go.  We need to stop out-kicking out coverage.
  • Gano is an excellent kicker.  I don't follow the national kicking scene, so I won't call him the best in America, but he is excellent.
  • Jimbo said that the OLine was overwhelmed, and that Easterling is a beast.
  • Jimbo clearly sounds worried about their defensive line and their ability to generate pressure without blitzing. 
  • We're destined for NOON RAYCOM against Clemson. 
  • Mickey was pleased with only 6 missed tackles, the best effort of the year, and is worried about our ability to stop the triple option, as it is difficult to simulate the triple option in real-speed with your scout team.

Let's get to the objective goals.  I lay these out each week in The Preview

  • 55% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 2 or more yards (win first down).  This seems like a strange goal, but it is all about staying out of 3rd and long.  PASS.  60% of 1st Down RB Carries went for 2+ yards.
  • 60% conversions running on 3rd/ 4th & 2 or less.  Fail.  1 for 2.
  • 1 or fewer fumbles (Not fumbles lose, but Fumbles)  Pass, though ball security is a major issue.
  • 40 yards rushing from Christian. FAIL, but he is way banged up.

What are some reasonable goals for the passing offense?

  • No more than .33 drop per 5 throws (works out to 2 or less per 35 throws).  PASS.  One drop in an impressive game from the WR's.
  • QB Rating of 105+   Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that.  PASS PASS PASS.  145!  11-19, 58%, 159 YDS, 1 TD 0 Int.
  • No careless throws into the flat.  This is big, since Va Tech scores a lot on defense.  Pass
  • Special Sack Rate  (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 8%.  Yes, 8%, they could get to us.  FAIL, badly.  19 attempts, 4 sacks, 1 holding.  ((4+1)/(4+19+1))= 20%.  20% is just ridiculously bad.  I gave them a lot of leeway on this goal, but that was pretty bad.  I'll have to adjust this goal for GTech.
  • 7.5 Yards per Attempt  PASS8.4/ ATTEMPT.  This was crucial.  We knew we wouldn't drive on VT, and that big plays would be key.
  • No fumbles from WR's.  PASS
  • 2 plays with 15+ YAC.  FAIL.  Just didn't happen.
  • No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 10 passes.  PassChristian played a conservative game without handcuffing the offense.
  • No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you)  Fail3+ times we had enough men to block the rush, and did not get it done.  Christian took a beating.

General Offensive Goals

  • 4.5 YPP  PASS, barely.  56 for 248 is 4.4 per play, about what we expected.  I'm not coutning the awkward kneeldown.
  • No more than 5 non-forced offensive penalties (I do not count O-PI here, so we are mainly talking about Personal Fouls, False Starts, Illegal formation, etc)  PASS, but we needed to hold!  Why not hold instead of giving up huge sacks.
  • Less than 2 turnovers.  PASS PASS PASS.
  • No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph).  PASS PASS PASS.
  • 60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing).  PASS.  2-3 works here.

I'm not going to do the defensive goals, as they were mostly geared to Taylor.

Looking Ahead:

I watched a bit of GTech, and to be honest, I do not like our chances.  They will exploit our lack of defensive discipline, and should rape our OLine while playing a lot of Zone coverage behind it.  They do not need to blitz to get pressure.  Injuries will play a major role, but at this point, I'd expect us to lose something like 23-13.  This is not a favorable matchup for us, unfortunately.  We CAN win, but expect a major challenge.

Let's go projecting

We now sit at 6-1.  Here is how I see the remaining games, in terms of chances of winning:

@ GT: 50% (generous)

Clemson 85%

BC 65%

@ MARYLAND 60%

UF: 25% (this is generous, let's put aside the hate and be realists).

So, that looks like we will add 2.85 wins to our total. 

The most likely result is 9-3,

followed by 8-4, 10-2, 7-5, 11-1(4.5% chance), and 6-6 (0.8% chance), with the last 3 scenario's being very unlikely.

Note: experienced handicappers will tell you that a scenario like ours offers a much better chance to win 4 of the last 5 games, than a team facing 5 games with only a 57% chance of winning (2.85 projected proportional win shares distributed evenly over the remaining 5 games).  So, that's good.

Will 9-3 get us to the Orange Bowl?  It's very possible, as long as the 3 losses include UF, and not 3 ACC losses.  8-4 will not do the trick.  10-2 and punch your ticket.

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