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Tuesday FSU Smrogasbord... and get your questions in.

The Numbers Game:

15 Sacks in 177 Dropbacks (162 Pass Attempts) in games against Legit D1 competition is good for a sack rate of 8.5%  This is a great stat to use when measuring pressure, as it accounts for the frequency at which an offense passes.  Back in August, I detailed our sack rates in the past:

  • '04: 7.8% 25 Sacks over 322 Dropbacks in 9 games. Teams Excluded: UAB, Syracuse, Duke.
  • '05: 9.0% 33 Sacks over 366 Dropbacks in 10 games. Teams Excluded: The Citadel, Duke. Syracuse.
  • '06: 6.8% 18 Sacks over 266 Dropbacks in 9 games. Teams Excluded: Troy, Rice, Duke, Western Michigan.
  • '07: 6.4% 27 Sacks over 424 Dropbacks in 11 games. A sack every 14.7 dropbacks. Teams Excluded: UAB, Duke.

and wrote:

Sack rate is the most effective way to measure sacks because it takes out the naturally occurring variance that results from game to game. A good sack rate is 8.5%. The top teams in the country have sack rates of about 10.5%, but they probably average around 9% against their good competition. Since that is the filter I applied, that is the number we will shoot for. 6.4% for FSU is bad.

The 6 against Virginia Tech definitely helped. 

Florida State still leads the Nation in the following defensive statistics:

  • Red Zone TD % Defense, allowing only 31% TD's in the red zone (7 TD's in 22 Trips)
  • 3rd down % defense (and nobody else is even close)  Opponents are 16 of 92, which is sick (17%).

Enough with the nerdy stuff for now.  I have an announcement!

 

I think Jimbo Fisher is a reader.  Why?

In yesterday's press conference, he mentioned that it was good to see Greg Carr play a good game against a good team.  Rough quote:

His number's are against better people.  He's doing it against better competition and in bigger situations than when he was younger.

How does that relate to us?  Well, we were the only ones talking about that very issue!  Nobody else had mentioned that Carr was averaging 3.7Catches 75 yards,  and 1.7TD's against garbage teams, while only averaging 2.8 Catches,  48Yards,  and 0.4 TD's against good teams.  Jimbo, if you are a fan, keep up the good work.  You guys have quite the challenge this week. 

 

A note about poll questions:

17% of people would rather see a sack than a holding penalty.  I have to say that I voted for the Holding penalty.  Think about this:

A Sack can result in a fumble, and possible an injury, and definitely results in a loss of down!  The loss of down is the key.  A holding penalty does NOT result in a loss of down. 

I would rather have a holding penalty and 1st n 20, than a sack that results in 2nd and 15.  Why?  Ref's will NOT call holding every play.  They subconsciously want to call a similar amount of penalties on each team.  I've discussed this at length HERE, and HERE

I think now is good time to take a look at the most and least penalized teams in the nation:

RankNameGamesPenaltiesYards PenalizedPenalties Per GameYards Per GameWinsLossesTies
1 Arizona 8 25 207 3.13 25.88 5 3 0
1 Navy 8 25 201 3.13 25.13 5 3 0
3 Penn St. 9 29 238 3.22 26.44 9 0 0
4 Ball St. 8 26 264 3.25 33.00 8 0 0
5 Pittsburgh 7 24 185 3.43 26.43 5 2 0
6 Army 8 28 274 3.50 34.25 3 5 0
7 Boston College 7 26 204 3.71 29.14 5 2 0
8 Missouri 8 31 290 3.88 36.25 6 2 0
9 Colorado St. 8 32 277 4.00 34.63 4 4 0
9 Vanderbilt 8 32 281 4.00 35.13 5 3 0
9 Rice 8 32 271 4.00 33.88 5 3 0
9 Syracuse 7 28 253 4.00 36.14 1 6 0

I conveniently bolded the ranked teams.

Now the most penalized teams:

112 Southern California 7 57 513 8.14 73.29 6 1 0
112 Florida 7 57 442 8.14 63.14 6 1 0
114 Texas Tech 8 66 552 8.25 69.00 8 0 0
115 South Fla. 8 69 514 8.63 64.25 6 2 0
115 Hawaii 8 69 615 8.63 76.88 4 4 0
117 Florida St. 7 63 578 9.00 82.57 6 1 0
118 TCU 9 83 742 9.22 82.44 8 1 0
119 Georgia 8 76 619 9.50 77.38 7 1

Yes, 7 of the 8 most heavily penalized teams are ranked!  What group do you want to be in?  I'll take aggressiveness.

Finally, a huge concern:

Florida State is 94th in Tackles for Loss allowed!  That's bad, but what's worse is that we've played only 7 games, while other teams have played 8 or 9, and 2 of our 7 were against 1-AA teams!  This WILL come back to doom us, and unless we get lucky and fix it, this week looks like the perfect opportunity for it to hurt us.

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Comments

Display:

Question for Ga.Tech guy and a comment about penalities

I have a few questions for the GT expert. 1) Don’t you love being yelled at by the women that work at the Varsity? 2) To most effectively run a Triple Option consistently you need a good Fullback. There has to be a real threat to make the LB’s hesitate. How is yours? 3) The teams that have been most effective in slowing the option, have they been bringing the SS up in the box to play the pitch man? 4) How is Nesbitts arm? (not statistically but in regards to his accuracy, velocity, etc) Thanks!

Also, TNation, I believe you were in the group that thinks penalties aren’t costly. FSU was the most penalized team in the nation during their 99 Championship run if I remember correctly. However, we have really seen penalties cost us drives and points this year. I’d rather not give up a sack OR a holding, but I guess that’s too wishful for a young OL.

Thanks for you hard work.

by UNFNOLE on Oct 28, 2008 4:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Questions

1) The 1992 FSU-GT game was a big turning point for Seminole football. Charlie Ward’s comeback cemented the fast break offense as an FSU staple. Is that a game Tech fans still talk about? Is there speculation on whether the GT program was as adversely affected by the loss as FSU was positively affected by the win?
2) Who do Yellow Jacket fans consider their biggest ACC rival? If not FSU, where do we fall in that pecking order?
3) The post-game talking points after your narrow win over Gardner-Webb were that you were missing your top 2 QB’s — but could you dig a little deeper into that game — what did the Runnin’ Bulldogs (who gave up 49 points to Sam Houston State) do defensively that was effective at stopping the option.
4) On any given option play run to Everette Brown’s side, would you prefer: a) that the QB pitch the ball to the RB, even if it means Brown gets a hard clean shot on the QB? b) that the QB cut inside for a short gain, but avoid a big Brown hit?

by Fsued on Oct 28, 2008 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Ramblin' Wreck Questions

1) As a fan, when you first learned that Paul Johnson would replace Chan Gailey what was your initial reaction knowing that the triple option would be coming with him from Navy??
2) In your opinion and from what you have seen so far this year from GT what do you think are the biggest advantages and disadvantages of the triple option?
3) Don’t know anything about your kicker but i see that he hasn’t converted on anything longer than 39 yards. If this is a close game like most are predicting do you think this will play a factor at all

Thanks

by Renegade11 on Oct 28, 2008 6:22 PM EDT reply actions  

1 more....

GT leads the ACC in fumbles and if i’m not mistaken by quite a bit. Would you attribute this to players still not being 100% comfortable with the new offense as i’m sure it takes a lot of focus to execute correctly?

by Renegade11 on Oct 29, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Questions

1) What if anything can be learned about the way VTech played against the Noles in the first half last week? Do the Yellow Jackets have the speed/talent on defense to consistently blitz?
2) How will Everette Browns play last week affect the Yellow Jacket’s play calling, run blocking and pass blocking?
3) My wife and I are traveling from Chicago to see the game, any good places to eat close to the stadium?
4) Has GTech’s performance this year been a surprise to you? What direction do you see this team going in the next 2-3 years?
5) What do you see as GTech’s greatest strengths/weaknesses? What do you see as the Noles greatest strengths/weaknesses?
6) Who will be the game changer this week?

Cheers!

by TrueCubbie on Oct 28, 2008 7:06 PM EDT reply actions  

GT ranks right near us (90) in tackles for a loss allowed and also played two 1AA teams.

by Jaguar on Oct 29, 2008 1:36 AM EDT reply actions  

True,

but they also pass the ball far less times. Hard to tackle a thrown ball for a loss. Just a thought.

Also, they’ve played 1 extra game. In theory, assuming similar competition, shouldn’t they have allowed 14% more, especially considering the amount they run.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 29, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sack Rate

Stat is interesting. However it still doesn’t do justice as to how bad we have been (outside of the VT game). I’d be curious to see how many knockdowns and hurry ups we have created, and the average for the nation. I feel like that stat would be just about impossible to find, but we have just NOT been getting pressure as much as we traditionally do.

Do they run the bone 100% of the time? If so, a pass rush isn’t as necessary. They have 1 option at WR. Our guys HAVE to be disciplined. I remember the mysterious shutout against wake at home a couple of years ago and all of their misdirection and motion gave us FITS. We can’t afford to be confused and watch plays this game.

by UNFNOLE on Oct 29, 2008 9:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Interesting observations

I think the hurries and knockdowns would show up in the opposition’s qb rating, and in 3rd down conversions. Why? The passer actually releases the pass. I’d argue that we are getting pressure for the most part, but the qb is having to throw short, and our secondary is making the tackle.

What is our oppositions Passer rating? (Not counting the 1-AA) 106. That’s pretty good, defensively.

Now, want to see where we really force the short throw? 3rd down. Against VT, they passed 8 times on 3rd down, getting sacked once, and having a QB Rating of 120. That’s not a great rating, but it’s arguably inflated by one big pass. Look closer, however, and see that only 1 of the 7 passes they threw went for a first down. Pressure forcing short throws is something that is hard to gauge.

They do not run the bone 100% of the time, but it is damn close. If you haven’t read the 2 articles I linked at the top of this post, make sure you do so.

This game will be a big opportunity for Patrick Robinson to make money.

We are currently practicing against without the ball, in order to emphasize assignment football. They run the play, and then the player who has the invisible ball yells me, once into the play. If anyone here is an inventor, consider making some sort of jersey that could light up via remote, so that we could tackle the guy who has the ball, only upon revealing who has the ball.

You are 100% right about what the discipline we need.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 29, 2008 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

...

I just read the articles. Very good explanations of the triple option/wishbone/flexbone. Thanks for those stats TN. Thats why I enjoy reading this site. I am not a stats guy, but its a very interesting perspective and analysis. There is always intangibles, but I do appreciate yalls work.

That’s a very creative way to practice. It definitly makes you stay at home and understand YOUR assignment.

by UNFNOLE on Oct 29, 2008 11:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Here are the final questions.

In order to avoid repetition, and give the blogger a reasonable amount of questions, I’ve combined some of y’alls questions, and decided to answer anything I knew off the top of my head myself.


Questions for UNC writer
Strategy

The teams that have been most effective in slowing the option, have they been bringing the SS up in the box to play the pitch man? If not, how have teams stopped Gtech’s running attack? Did the Runnin’ Bulldogs of Gardner-Webb expose something besides the 3rd string QB?

Everette Brown (6-4 255) is a First Round defensive end for the ‘Noles. Up until last week, he hadn’t seen anything but double teams. Virginia Tech foolishly tried to single block him, and that was a mistake (5 TFL’s, 3 Sacks). Your LT Gardner is pretty good (1st Team ACC). I assume you’ll attempt to slow Everette via option passing and play action, but if you get in 3rd and long, will Paul Johnson use help, or will he roll the dice with Gardner? On any given option play run to Everette Brown’s side, would you prefer: a) that the QB pitch the ball to the RB, even if it means Brown gets a hard clean shot on the QB? b) that the QB cut inside for a short gain, but avoid a big Brown hit?

In your opinion and from what you have seen so far this year from GT what do you think are the biggest advantages and disadvantages of the triple option? Do you prefer the backup QB, who ran the Option in HS and seems to protect the ball better, while maybe not being the caliber of athlete of your current starter?

Phil Steele ranks GT’s special teams 105th in the nation. Don’t know anything about your kicker but i see that he hasn’t converted on anything longer than 39 yards. Is this an ability issue? Do the special teams worry you? Has the kicking woes caused Johnson to think differently about 4th downs?

GT leads the ACC with 26. Would you attribute this to players still not being 100% comfortable with the new offense as i’m sure it takes a lot of focus to execute correctly? How much are we blowing this out of proportion, given that since Tech is so run heavy, they have more opportunities to fumble? I ran some math here, 26 fumbles on 386 carries is a fumble every 14.8 carries, or 6.8% of the time.

We know about Micheal Johnson, Nesbitt, Dwyer, Vance Walker, and Demarrius Thomas. Give us a name who will have to step up in order for Ga Tech to win this game (even if it means stepping up to average as opposed to poorly).

Is there an area that you perceive as a weakness that the opposition has yet to exploit?

GT has basically ruled out any chance of starting CB CB Jahvid World-Daniels and Starting WR Tyler Melton playing in this game. What about Starting Safety Dominique Reese (concussion), and Starting OL Andrew Smith (Concussion)? Given that young players often fare better with man principles do you anticipate increased use of man coverage due to the newly forced youth/ inexperience in the secondary?

Rivalry

The 1992 FSU-GT game was a big turning point for Seminole football. Charlie Ward’s comeback cemented the fast break offense as an FSU staple. Is that a game Tech fans still talk about? Is there speculation on whether the GT program was as adversely affected by the loss as FSU was positively affected by the win?

Who do Yellow Jacket fans consider their biggest ACC rival? If not FSU, where do we fall in that pecking order?

As a fan, when you first learned that Paul Johnson would replace Chan Gailey what was your initial reaction knowing that the triple option would be coming with him from Navy??

Has GTech’s performance this year been a surprise to you? What direction do you see this team going in the next 2-3 years?

Fun Questions
1) Don’t you love being yelled at by the women who work at the Varsity?
3) My wife and I are traveling from Chicago to see the game, any good places to eat close to the stadium?

Questions I will take
2) To most effectively run a Triple Option consistently you need a good Fullback. There has to be a real threat to make the LB’s hesitate. How is yours?

1) What if anything can be learned about the way VTech played against the Noles in the first half last week? Do the Yellow Jackets have the speed/talent on defense to consistently blitz?

How is Nesbitts arm? (not statistically but in regards to his accuracy, velocity, etc).

How good are your DE’s & how would you rank them as a unit in the conference?

by Bud Elliott on Oct 29, 2008 11:39 AM EDT reply actions  

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