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Yeah, the Orange Bowl is no more.  I preview the offense after the jump...

The FSU passing game against the Hurricane Defense

This is what everyone is waiting for.  We've disected ponder to the point of absurdity.  We posted videos about the Miami defense.  I am not going to waste your time talking about what Ponder has done.  Go back and read those linked articles. 

Christian Ponder needs to play better.  He needs to do a better job of throwing in rhythm.  The progression is there.  He was, for the most part, a mess against Wake.  Against Colorado he took a step, hitting guys and being more accurate.  He still didn't trust the offense, however, as he waited for them to get open.  The next step is trusting that they will come open and throwing the ball before they are actually open.  Ponder is very smart.  He knows this offense.  He needs to have anticipation and trust.  The receivers must play better.  They must pay attention.  They must fight for the ball.  They cannot slack out there.  They must get open and run great routes.  They must help out their young quarterback.  If they don't they must relinquish the title of "the best unit on offense."

If you've read the article about Miami's defense, this is going to shock you.  Miami is going to blitz a lot.  I think this is dumb on their part, in a way.  We really have no idea if our young offensive line can handle their pass rush.  Miami's interior offensive line hasn't been impressive.  Hudson and McMahon will be fine.  Furlong is probably too lite to consistently stone his man, so Miami should get some pressure in his face.  Datko and Sanders are the keys here.  Can they hold up?  Moncur and the rest of the Cane defensive ends are pretty good, but not great.  I think it's safe to say that our guys see better in practice. 

I do think we will not  consistently stone  Miami, especially Moncur who is strong and can likely bullrush Datko.  That said, I expect Miami to bring pressure.  They didn't blitz against UNC, but they blitzed like crazy against UF and Texas A&M.  Personally, I say bring it on.  Our guys are very young and going into a hostile environment, but will open up Miami's secondary.  Their new DC is Bill Young.  He's not a serious student of the Cover-2 Man system, but rather loves to blitz.  He blitzed like crazy at Kansas. 

So, if we're able to be competent against Miami's front 4, and it should be scary that I said "if", but if we're able to, we still need to handle the blitz.  This will fall on Antone.  He had one major blitz pickup miss in each of the last 2 games.

Ponder needs to diagnose the defense quickly, and then make the right decisions.  The same goes for the receivers.  Last game, Greg Carr missed ponder doing this 

and didn't make the correct adjustment.  Our veteran wideouts must get the checks. 

There is some good news in all of this: Miami's secondary is very beatable,a and is definitely worse than Wake or Colorado.  I am not kidding.  They are very banged up, missing one starter and 2 key reserves. 

Wake has the 16th ranked pass defense, Colorado had the 54th, Miami?  They're 66th, and banged up!

Of course, this game is in Miami, the place will be loud (though not crazily loud).  Ponder need to hit some throws early to get confidence.  He also needs to take some chances.  Jimbo needs to think Protection first, so that we don't have catastrophic fumbles off of sacks.

Now, what are some reasonable goals for the passing offense?

• No more than 1 drop per 15 throws
• QB Rating of 110
• No careless throws into the flat. 
  
• Sack Rate (sacks / sacks + pass attempts) of less than 10%.
• 7 Yards per Attempt

I think Ponder is going to run around and make some throws on the run.  I expect Corey Surrency to have a big day, making plays over Miami's average secondary.  In a game where some playground style stuff might break out, it only makes sense that the leats experienced wideout (Surrency) has the breakout.  Hopefully Ponder can hit him on a broken play on a long toss. 

FSU's Running Game against the Hurricane Run Defense

We cannot blast block UM.  This line is much too young to do that.  I really hope we don't try. 

What can we ro runnin the ball?  Zone plays should have SOME success.  I don't think we will gash them like we did to Colorado, but Antone is a good back and this line is willing to cut block.   

Even if we don't have success running, we must keep trying.  We have to try to get the PA game going.  We have to run to keep some pressure off of Ponder.

I think we can also have success with Christian running.  The kid is very fast. 

Key formation to look for: K-Gun, Preston Slot, motion into the backfield, run direct handoffs to him, fake to him and give to Antone, fake to him and keep with Ponder, Fake to Preston and run option off that, and fake to Antone and run shovel to preston.

We saw this look in the Colorado game.  Expect more of that.  Ponder making option reads could be a key to this game.

The Goals for the running game:

• 65% of carries by FSU RB's on First down go for 2 or more yards (win first down)

• 1 or fewer fumbles
• 30 yards rushing from Christian

In the end, FSU's offense will be inconsistent, but will make some plays.  Florida State will have one good drive for a TD, one 45 yard drive for a FG, one big play of 40+ yards for a TD, hopefully a bubble screen when we catch Miami in a blitz, or a "go deep" Ponder loft to Surrency.  We'll also get one field goal set up off special teams, and two field goals off of turnovers.  FSU Rushes for 130 (a good bit being Ponder), and Throws for 190.  In the end, FSU puts up 23 points off of 2 TD's, and 3 field goals, to win 23-20. 

Note: if it rains a lot in this game we are in deep trouble.  That favors Miami's size up front. 

I'm sorry that this preview isn't very good today.  I'm not sure why, but I have a hard time getting a feel for this game.  All I can think of is choppy and sloppy, with big plays interspersed with losses and negative yards.  I hope I'm wrong.

One thing to comfort you: We have the 4th ranked special teams in America.  This is the highest we've been ranked in a long time.  Hopefully, with the better defense and special teams, combined with a non-existent home field advantage for Miami in their new non ghetto stadium, and an offense that's about equal to them, we can pull out the victory!

Go Noles!