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Flagging Seminole Media for Criticizing Penalties, Part 1

The Noles were called for 12 penalties against Wake Forest.

FSU committed 12 penalties against Colorado.

Florida State got caught 12 times against Miami.

According to no less than 7 writers, FSU is suffering from a penalty epidemic.

Guess what?  As many people who are a lot smarter than me have already shown, penalties are not a big deal.  Read on... after the jump

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Note:  Huge credit to SMQ and Saurian Sagacity for their work in this area.  Most of this stuff was not done by me.  All I did was bring it to light for more people to discover.

"This team is SO undisciplined!"  "Why do we always do stupid stuff like that!"   "I can't believe this, we have to be the dumbest team in America!!"

Good news for your blood pressure and your marriage:

Penalties do not matter.  The team who commits fewer penalties or penalty yards is not more likely to lose the ballgame than its less culpable opponent.  I am not sure what coach began drilling this into player's heads, but as some very smart men have shown, penalties are not a big deal.  My guess is that penalties frustrated coaches to no end and thus a huge number of coaches began to stress the need to eliminate penalties at all cost. 

Let's give Mickey Andrews credit here, as he was on top of this idea years and years ago.  

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Photo Credit:  Tallahassee Democrat

I think Mickey just pays lip service to the media about reducing penalties.  This man knows about penalties.

This article will come as a shock to about 80% of readers.  The other 20% probably already read the following information:

'Fewest Penalty Yards,' which never showed the slightest indication of being important to victory. The complete irrelevance of penalty yardage again comes with the caveat that penalties are situational killers (see Louisville jumping offsides on Rutgers' first ill-fated field goal attempt to win in November or any number of questionable flags - like LSU "holding" to negate a critical early touchdown at Florida, perhaps, or the same call against Missouri late in the Tigers' loss to Iowa State - for a similar example of defeat somehow via flag), but cumulatively, there's no reason whatsoever to sweat a lot of penalties. It's when flags are thrown, not how many.  http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2007/2/12/112212/823#5964872

This chart shows a breakdown of every game in college football, from last year, and isolates what really helps teams win games.

Rank Category Win %
1. Yards Per Pass .785 (241-66)
2. Total Offense .740 (231-81)
3. 3rd Down Efficiency .709 (212-87)
4. Turnover Margin .681 (156-73)
5. Rush Offense .678 (213-101)
6. First to Score .674 (213-103)
7. Yards Per Carry .673 (206-100)
8. Time of Possession .624 (179-108)
9. Pass Offense .556 (173-138)
10. Home Team .539 (126-108)

11.

Fewest Penalty Yards

.405 (119-175)

http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2007/2/12/112212/823#5964872

There are a ton of things Florida State can do to improve its chances of winning, but, that's right, having fewer penalty yards than your opponent does NOT correlate with winning.  If you have fewer penalty yards than your opponent, you will actually lose the game more often than not.  Clearly, I am not arguing that a team gains an advantage from having penalties called on them. 

Why these surprising results then?

Here is a comment that followed  that original article:

That the reason for the negative correlation between  winning and penalty yards is actually pretty simple.  Given that doing the sort of things that draw penalties (holding, blocking in the back, pass interference) help the offending team, and that penalties are called only some of the time and mostly on the more blatant violations (such as holding), then frequent cheating results in two things: 1) winning and 2) getting penalized. 

The team derives a benefit from offending acts that are NOT called.  Essentially, unless referees are determined to throw penalty flags on almost every play, flag-worthy on-field conduct is probably beneficial to the offending team.

The best example of this is the 2003 AFC Championship game, where the Patriots illegally hit and clutched the Colt's wide receivers to such an extreme level that the NFL changed their rules in response.

Here is another chart that illustrates the point quite well (again from above link). 

Winning Percentage of Top 20 Teams Per Statistical Category

1 Pass Efficiency Defense .770 (188-56)
2 Rushing Defense .766 (187-57)

3 Total Defense .736 (178-64)
4 Total Offense .730 (178-66)

5 Third Down Efficiency Defense .725 (177-67)
6 Third Down Efficiency Offense .719 (174-68)

7 Fourth Down Efficiency Offense .682 (185-77)
8 Rushing Offense .664 (160-81)

9 Fourth Down Efficiency Defense .650 (167-90)
10 Turnover Margin .644 (179-99)

11 Passing Offense .641 (157-88)
12 Time of Possession .632 (153-89)

13 Fewest Yards Penalized .522 (126-115)

Draw your own conclusions.

Here is more from Gator Blog Saurian Sagacity:

... the incontrovertible statistical proof indicates that penalty yards do not hurt the team, and that the team with more yards penalized wins more often than not.  http://sauriansagacity.blogspot.com/2007/01/penalties-nearly-irrelevant.html

One other thing to note about your point on penalties.  Pass interference in college results only in a fifteen yard penalty when it's called, so on a long pass where the defender can't make the stop, it's still a better strategy to commit the penalty than give up an even bigger gain...

It is this final comment that I want to address in detail during this series.  Criticizing penalty yards on the whole isn't just imprecise and misguided; it is now proven to be an exercise in futility.

Let's take a look at FSU's penalties in their last 3 games.  I'm going to submit this to you, our readers, and ask that you please leave your thoughts in the comment section.  My Observations, along with the best user takes will follow later in the week in Part 2.  My review will not only attempt to figure out just how much benefit FSU derives from conduct that can lead to penalties, but also what penalties should be encouraged and shunned.  Let's make this a great reader project.  Enjoy!

 

GM O/ D / ST Penalty Yards Offender
UM O False Start 5 Datko
UM O False Start 5 Datko
UM O False Start 5 Furlong
UM S Kick OOB 5 Esco
UM D DPI 15 Mangum
UM D PF Rough Pass 11 Bradham
UM D DPI 0 (declined)
UM O Holding 10 Sanders
UM O SUB OFF 5 TEAM
UM S BITB 10 Carr, N
UM S Illegal Kick 6 Powell
UM O False Start 5 # 69 cited
UM D DPI 15 Robinson, J
UC D PF Rough Pass 15 Watson
UC O Delay 5 Team
UC O False Start 5 Reed
UC O Delay 5 Team
UC O False Start 5 Parker
UC O Delay 5 Team
UC O Delay 5 Team
UC D PF (OFF) 15 Carr, Gr
UC D Facemask 15 Watson
UC D DPI 9 Rolle
UC D PF Rough Pass 15 Brown
UC D DPI 11 Rolle
WF S PF 0 ?  Offset
WF D PF Rough Pass 15 Brown
WF O Block 15 Surrency
WF O False Start 5 Greenlee
WF O Block 15 Surrency
WF O PF   15 Parker
WF D SUB D 5 Team
WF D PF (late hit OOB) 15 Rolle
WF O Holding 10 Furlong
WF D Facemask 15 White
WF D Offsides 5 Brown
WF D DPI 15 Garvin
WF O Holding 10 Datko

 

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You are SO right!

Aggression and strateigic penalties don’t hurt the offending team….period.

We do need to stop with the false start, delay of game, illegal sub. penalties.

by truecolors on Oct 7, 2008 7:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I think we also need to quit the late hit out of bounds penalty

That is really damaging and is usually bred out of frustration, not aggression.

I’m not sure what to think of facemask calls. They could indicate that someone is out of position or is reaching for the player because he has lazy feet. It could also be that elite athletes move so fast that you can’t always control where your hands go.

Also, remember that some delay of game penalties are strategic.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed Uncensored

That’s the only penalty I ever get really upset about. Holds happen, PI happens, but there is NO excuse for a late hit after the whistle. It doesn’t “send a message” beyond one that the hitter is a moron.

"Your eyes can decieve you. Don't trust them." Obi-Wan Kenobi, the first sabermetrician...

by Curtain Jerker on Oct 7, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Penalties do hurt

Well, certain types of penalties hurt, most of them are on the offense. On defense the risk is often worth the reward, but rarely on offense (besides holding and offensive pass interference). For example a false start doesn’t really speak to aggressivenes, neither do delay of game and illegal substitutions. Holding often keeps your QB from getting hit, always a plus, and offensive pass interference is so rarely called that WR would be poorly taught if they didn’t often push off or hold DBs.

Defensively offsides rarely a bad penalty because you can often get back before the flag is thrown or you guess the snap count correctly and blow up a play (see Everett Brown). Like you mentioned pass intereference isn’t bad because it’s only 15 yards. You always want to hit the QB so if you get there a step late, then so be it. The only time these become a problem is if it’s habitually on a player by play basis.

SMQ just used the 06 season, but if you go back to 04 (I got lazy after that) the teams with the most penalty yards always had a better record than those with the fewest. It’s not enough to be statistically relavant (.01 to .09 difference in those years), but it does prove that penalties do not play a part in a team’s record OVERALL (very important word there).

FSU’s best record since going to the title game was 9-3. Where were we ranked in penalty yards that year? Last.

by evenflow58 on Oct 7, 2008 7:50 AM EDT reply actions  

Good points overall.

I think it is safe to say that the coaches do not need to devote some inordinate amount of time focusing on penalties.

I hadn’t thought about OPI as an indication of teaching technique, interesting. I was thinking along the lines of “preventing an interception”, but I guess the Greg Carr style OPI could also be beneficial.

There are two types of false starts: mental errors, and false starts where the team is using a silent count and the player is a half beat early. The half beat early start is sort of okay in my eyes, as the advantage gained by setting up in a great position could result in a gain of much more than the potential 5 yard loss.

False Starts on wide receivers annoy me a lot. Usually they just have to look at the ball and for the most part, those penalties are not excusable.

I am pretty shocked that we only have one offsides penalties.

Good job going back and looking at previous seasons. Interestingly, Saurian Sagacity found that the Gators only loss in their 2006 National Champ year came in the game when they had the fewest penalties in the entire season.

Good take, Weasie.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

What about the other side to this?

Has anyone looked at the penalties against our opponents. One could argue for holding on every play, but it seems pretty apparent that it’s nearly impossible to stop our defensive line without holding. How many times have other teams been called for holding? I remember one play where Everette Brown was being held to an extreme and he was so furious about it not being called that he swiped at the QB’s head after the throw as he ran by him. I don’t really have a problem with roughing the passer calls as long as we make it worthwhile and are really lighting someone up. In fact, is this not one of the team mantras?

Other than that it’s obvious false starts and delays aren’t helpful, and these seem to be the largest volume of the penalties for which we are flagged. Do you think there’s any push by the coaches to remove these types of penalties to make a cushion for more of the helpful types of penalties?

by Weasie on Oct 7, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions  

I have not,

but I do think we were hosed several times in the CU game.

I think there is a push to improve play calling communication as to eliminate the delay of game call. Now, remember that at least one of those was intentional to get more room to punt.

The false start call is only 5 yards, and we probably try to get the wide receivers to fix that more than anything. I think our guys might jump early a lot, but if it is fractional, the refs do not call it and we get the advantage of an FSU blocker mauling an opponent.

Good take, Weasie.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just looked at the ESPN.com play-by-play...

I’m not sure how accurate these are, but here’s my count:
WF: 2 Holding Penalties
CU: 0 Holding Penalties
UM: 0 Holding Penalties

This baffles me.

Mickey Andrews addressed this yesterday when the question came up. His response, “If you’re getting held, it’s your own fault.” Awesome.

by Weasie on Oct 7, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Wow,

I did not know it was to that level.

As for the CU game, this was not called:

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

The best example of this is the 2003 AFC Championship game, where the Patriots illegally hit and clutched the Colt’s wide receivers to such an extreme level that the NFL changed their rules in response.

  The fact that the NFL changed the rules afterward demonstrate that what the Patriots were doing wasn’t illegal at the time, no?

by andy_wooster on Oct 7, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Absolutely,

but they got away with it. There hasn’t been the same sort of unified mandate to enforce those in college, to my knowledge.

I am arguing that you should attempt to get away with as much as possible. I want our guys to do even more clutching and grabbing.

At some level, officials will just refuse to throw flags. If they’re calling the very obvious, they might decide to forgo calling the slightly less egregious stuff, which would normally be called.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

in regards to penalties

Great observation. I don’t have the numbers to back this up but in recalling the florida state teams of old (the 90s) I believe we were far and away the most penalized team in the conference every year; and won a hell of a lot of games in correlation with that. It seems like the turf was littered with yellow flags and other teams bruised and battered players week in and week out! The one constant FSU won….Always. In the entire decade the Noles lost two ACC games!

However, I think the real concern is the type of penalties committed. The eight false starts, the delays of game, the roughing the passer calls and a number of other ‘mental mistakes’ serve to highlight the inexperience and carelessness that have to be eradicated before this team can compete consistently at the highest level.

I don’t mind a pass interference that prevents a deep touchdown, but I don’t think anyone likes to see a 3rd and 6 false starts pushing the Noles back five yards and setting up difficult conversions, unless you’re wake forest.

by jds07d on Oct 7, 2008 8:59 PM EDT reply actions  

I think I agree with everything you just said, except...

for the roughing the passer shots. I am actually okay with those. If you put some hesitancy into the opposing qb, fine, but make them count.

The MOST inexcusable are clearly the Receiver false starts.

Penalties though need to be way down on the list for people to worry about.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 7, 2008 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

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