'Noles by the Numbers: FSU 41, Clemson 27

I'm already tired of this brawl business and I want to get back to the numbers. 

Inside you'll find charts galore, including:

  • An accounting of the 'Nole's National Standings
  • The updated Blogpoll Ballot
  • Marginalizing Clemson
  • An in-depth comparison that debunks all of the "BC plays great defense" praise.

Where do the Noles Rank?

Source National Ranking ACC Ranking SOS Ranking
Fremeau Effeciency Index 9 2 39 (3rd hardest remaining) Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 17th Opponent Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 37th
The methodology behind the calculations, and this week's rankings (with full explanations) These interesting strength of schedule rankings are explained http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/fei-week-6-ratings Kicking Expectancy: 1st (by  a huge margin) Field Position Expectancy (measure of return and coverage teams): 98th!  Egads!
Phil Steele 5 way tie for 28th 2nd 69th in Opponent Adhusted Pass Efficiency Defense
Dinnich, ESPN.com ACC Blogger 1
ACC SEC Blog Tier 1
Sagarin 21 3 84 27th in Predictor Ratings (power poll ranking)
Acc Football Report 15 2
AP Poll 20 2
Coaches Poll 20 2
Stewart Mandel (SI.com) 16 2
CBS Sports Blogpoll
CBS Sports 120 20 2
Harriss Poll 20 2
BCS 19 2
College Football News 19 2
Dr. Saturday 18 2
Avowed Resume ranker, formerly known as Sunday Morning Quarterback (SMQ).

You simply must take a look at  This week's Fremeau efficiency Index rankings.  Gano is on the front page!

I'll gladly side with the more advanced metrics; but they seem to be pretty split.  The consensus is clearly high teens, however, which is about where we should be at this point.


The Updated Blogpoll Ballot

Rank Team SCHEDULE STRENGTH
1 Texas Tech 59
2 Alabama 71
3 Texas 25
4 Florida 61
5 Southern Cal 68
6 Oklahoma 44
7 Oklahoma State 22
8 North Carolina 27
9 Georgia 14
10 Penn State 47
11 Ohio State 10
12 California 54
13 Michigan State 44
14 South Carolina 74
15 Missouri 46
16 Oregon State 20
17 Wake Forest 37
18 Georgia Tech 5
19 Pittsburgh 63
20 Florida State 39
21 Miami (Florida) 3
22 Cincinnati 50
23 Virginia Tech 7
24 Mississippi 6
25 LSU 11

 

It seems that I was the Boldest pollster of the week.  Does anyone else find those strength of schedule numbers interesting?  I'm sure UNF will want to see USC down again.  If OU beats TT or plays even with them, I will bump them.


Life on the Margins FSU Edition

CLEMSON FSU
TOTAL YARDS 316 419
1ST DOWNS 22 22
YARDS PER PLAY 4.5 6.7
YDS per POSSESSION 24 38
AVG START CU 27 FS 35
TURNOVERS 2 2
YARDS FOR POINTS 290 346
Yards on scoring drives (including penalties)
SWING POINTS 7 7
Points on defense, special teams, or drives less than 25 yards
WASTED YARDS 83 85
Yards on non-scoring drives (including penalties)
FINAL SCORE 27 41

That's something I borrowed from Dr. Saturday (Formerly SMQ)

  • Clemson was ALL boom or bust:  290 of their 316 total yards were on scoring drives.
  • Gano's impact is immediately felt.  Clemson's average starting field position was their OWN 24 yard line, even with the drive that began at FSU's 9 (following the Carter Muff). 
  • Net Yards Per play is one of the highest indicators of success, and 6.7-4.5 is a dominant net of 2.2NYPP


Let's go inside Boston College

Jeff Cameron brought this up today and I'd been looking into some of the same things.  Let's filter out all the noise (non conference filler) and take a look at the per conference game performances of BC and FSU. 

FSU Offense

Total Off. Rushing Passing
Opponent Pts Plays Yds YPP No Net Att Comp Yds YPA TD Int
Wake Forest(3-12) 3 64 220 3.4 28 102 36 12 118 3.3 0 5
Miami (Fla.)(41-39) 41 84 469 5.6 53 310 31 14 159 5.1 1 2
North Carolina St.(26-17) 26 80 392 4.9 45 138 35 23 254 7.3 1 0
Virginia Tech(30-20) 30 57 248 4.4 38 89 19 11 159 8.4 1 0
Georgia Tech(28-31) 28 65 384 5.9 36 196 29 17 188 6.5 2 1
Clemson(41-27) 41 63 419 6.7 36 266 27 16 153 5.7 1 1
ACC TOTALS 169 413 2132 236 1101 177 93 1031 6 9
ACC AVG/ Game 28 69 355 5.2 39 184 30 16 172 5.8 1 1.5

FSU Defense

Total Off. Rushing Passing
Opponent Pts Plays Yds YPPA No Net Att Comp Yds YPA TD Int Sacks TFL
Wake Forest(3-12) 12 68 276 4.1 38 59 30 17 217 7.2 0 0 2 9
Miami (Fla.)(41-39) 39 63 256 4.1 14 51 49 21 205 4.2 1 3 2 6
North Carolina St.(26-17) 17 47 338 7.2 22 157 25 13 181 7.2 2 0 1 4
Virginia Tech(30-20) 20 56 243 4.3 34 82 22 12 161 7.3 1 0 6 10
Georgia Tech(28-31) 31 51 343 6.7 45 288 6 4 55 9.2 0 1 0 2
Clemson(41-27) 27 71 316 4.5 36 79 35 20 237 6.8 2 1 6 14
ACC TOTALS 146 356 1772 189 716 167 87 1056 6 5 17 45
ACC AVG/ Game 24 59 295 5.0 32 119 28 15 176 6.3 1.0 0.8 2.8 7.5

BC Offense

Total Off. Rushing Passing
Opponent Pts Plays Yds YPP No Net Att Comp Yds YPA TD Int
Georgia Tech(16-19) 16 77 262 3.4 41 120 36 18 142 3.9 1 2
North Carolina St.(38-31) 38 81 578 7.1 30 150 51 34 428 8.4 2 1
Virginia Tech(28-23) 28 69 300 4.3 37 82 32 16 218 6.8 1 3
North Carolina(24-45) 24 63 244 3.9 21 40 42 28 204 4.9 2 3
Clemson(21-27) 21 69 236 3.4 30 120 39 18 116 3.0 1 0
ACC TOTALS 127 359 1620 159 512 200 114 1108 7 9
ACC AVG/ Game 25 72 324 4.5 32 102 40 23 222 5.5 1.4 1.8

BC Defense

Total Off. Rushing Passing
Opponent Pts Plays Yds YPPA No Net Att Comp Yds YPA TD Int Sacks TFL
Georgia Tech(16-19) 19 53 235 4.4 40 162 13 6 73 5.6 0 0 2 5
North Carolina St.(38-31) 31 55 253 4.6 22 35 33 19 218 6.6 1 0 5 6
Virginia Tech(28-23) 23 65 240 3.7 38 150 27 12 90 3.3 0 1 1 4
North Carolina(24-45) 45 66 352 5.3 36 114 30 19 238 7.9 3 0 3 4
Clemson(21-27) 27 64 339 5.3 31 87 33 21 252 7.6 1 3 2 7
ACC TOTALS 145 303 1419 167 548 136 77 871 5 4 13 26
ACC AVG/ Game 29 61 284 4.7 33 110 27 15 174 6.4 1 0.8 2.6 5.2

 

What can we learn from this?

  • BC's defensive prowess is massively overstated.  They are dead last in points allowed per ACC game (29), while scoring only 24 per contest.
  • BC has been outscored (145-127), outgained (324- 284), and has a negative yet yards per play total of -0.2  (a good way to measure team strength-- better if you can take out garbage time drives, which I can't) 
  • In contrast, Florida State scores 28 per contest, while allowing only 24. 
  • Florida State has played one horrific game (Wake), while BC has laid several eggs.  Taking out the Wake game form the numbers reveals a significant upward trend in production.  Boston College's resume offers no such outlier game.
  • Boston College is consistently underwhelming, while FSU is slightly above average with the Wake game, and dominant without.
  • FSU and BC share 4 common opponents (GT, VT, NCST, CLEMSON).  FSU outscored that quad 125-95, while BC outscored them by only 3: 103-100.
  • In their last 2 conference games (UNC & Clemson), BC has been outgained by 231 yards.
  • For all the talk about BC's huge size advantage, they avrerge only 2 yards on the ground.

It's been a long day.  We should allpray for everyone involved in the yesterday's brawl.

Thursday will feature the conclusion of "isnide the Seminole Film Room" as well as "the conversation."

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