I'm already tired of this brawl business and I want to get back to the numbers.
Inside you'll find charts galore, including:
- An accounting of the 'Nole's National Standings
- The updated Blogpoll Ballot
- Marginalizing Clemson
- An in-depth comparison that debunks all of the "BC plays great defense" praise.
Where do the Noles Rank?
|Source||National Ranking||ACC Ranking||SOS Ranking|
|Fremeau Effeciency Index||9||2||39 (3rd hardest remaining)||Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 17th||Opponent Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 37th|
|The methodology behind the calculations, and this week's rankings (with full explanations)||These interesting strength of schedule rankings are explained http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/fei-week-6-ratings||Kicking Expectancy: 1st (by a huge margin)||Field Position Expectancy (measure of return and coverage teams): 98th! Egads!|
|Phil Steele||5 way tie for 28th||2nd||69th in Opponent Adhusted Pass Efficiency Defense|
|Dinnich, ESPN.com ACC Blogger||1|
|ACC SEC Blog||Tier 1|
|Sagarin||21||3||84||27th in Predictor Ratings (power poll ranking)|
|Acc Football Report||15||2|
|Stewart Mandel (SI.com)||16||2|
|CBS Sports Blogpoll|
|CBS Sports 120||20||2|
|College Football News||19||2|
|Avowed Resume ranker, formerly known as Sunday Morning Quarterback (SMQ).|
You simply must take a look at This week's Fremeau efficiency Index rankings. Gano is on the front page!
I'll gladly side with the more advanced metrics; but they seem to be pretty split. The consensus is clearly high teens, however, which is about where we should be at this point.
The Updated Blogpoll Ballot
It seems that I was the Boldest pollster of the week. Does anyone else find those strength of schedule numbers interesting? I'm sure UNF will want to see USC down again. If OU beats TT or plays even with them, I will bump them.
Life on the Margins FSU Edition
|YARDS PER PLAY||4.5||6.7|
|YDS per POSSESSION||24||38|
|AVG START||CU 27||FS 35|
|YARDS FOR POINTS||290||346|
|Yards on scoring drives (including penalties)|
|Points on defense, special teams, or drives less than 25 yards|
|Yards on non-scoring drives (including penalties)|
That's something I borrowed from Dr. Saturday (Formerly SMQ)
- Clemson was ALL boom or bust: 290 of their 316 total yards were on scoring drives.
- Gano's impact is immediately felt. Clemson's average starting field position was their OWN 24 yard line, even with the drive that began at FSU's 9 (following the Carter Muff).
- Net Yards Per play is one of the highest indicators of success, and 6.7-4.5 is a dominant net of 2.2NYPP
Let's go inside Boston College
Jeff Cameron brought this up today and I'd been looking into some of the same things. Let's filter out all the noise (non conference filler) and take a look at the per conference game performances of BC and FSU.
|North Carolina St.(26-17)||17||47||338||7.2||22||157||25||13||181||7.2||2||0||1||4|
|ACC AVG/ Game||24||59||295||5.0||32||119||28||15||176||6.3||1.0||0.8||2.8||7.5|
|North Carolina St.(38-31)||38||81||578||7.1||30||150||51||34||428||8.4||2||1|
|ACC AVG/ Game||25||72||324||4.5||32||102||40||23||222||5.5||1.4||1.8|
|North Carolina St.(38-31)||31||55||253||4.6||22||35||33||19||218||6.6||1||0||5||6|
|ACC AVG/ Game||29||61||284||4.7||33||110||27||15||174||6.4||1||0.8||2.6||5.2|
What can we learn from this?
- BC's defensive prowess is massively overstated. They are dead last in points allowed per ACC game (29), while scoring only 24 per contest.
- BC has been outscored (145-127), outgained (324- 284), and has a negative yet yards per play total of -0.2 (a good way to measure team strength-- better if you can take out garbage time drives, which I can't)
- In contrast, Florida State scores 28 per contest, while allowing only 24.
- Florida State has played one horrific game (Wake), while BC has laid several eggs. Taking out the Wake game form the numbers reveals a significant upward trend in production. Boston College's resume offers no such outlier game.
- Boston College is consistently underwhelming, while FSU is slightly above average with the Wake game, and dominant without.
- FSU and BC share 4 common opponents (GT, VT, NCST, CLEMSON). FSU outscored that quad 125-95, while BC outscored them by only 3: 103-100.
- In their last 2 conference games (UNC & Clemson), BC has been outgained by 231 yards.
- For all the talk about BC's huge size advantage, they avrerge only 2 yards on the ground.
It's been a long day. We should allpray for everyone involved in the yesterday's brawl.
Thursday will feature the conclusion of "isnide the Seminole Film Room" as well as "the conversation."