'Noles by the Numbers: FSU 41, Clemson 27
I'm already tired of this brawl business and I want to get back to the numbers.
Inside you'll find charts galore, including:
- An accounting of the 'Nole's National Standings
- The updated Blogpoll Ballot
- Marginalizing Clemson
- An in-depth comparison that debunks all of the "BC plays great defense" praise.
Where do the Noles Rank?
| Source | National Ranking | ACC Ranking | SOS Ranking | ||
| Fremeau Effeciency Index | 9 | 2 | 39 (3rd hardest remaining) | Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 17th | Opponent Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 37th |
| The methodology behind the calculations, and this week's rankings (with full explanations) | These interesting strength of schedule rankings are explained http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/fei-week-6-ratings | Kicking Expectancy: 1st (by a huge margin) | Field Position Expectancy (measure of return and coverage teams): 98th! Egads! | ||
| Phil Steele | 5 way tie for 28th | 2nd | 69th in Opponent Adhusted Pass Efficiency Defense | ||
| Dinnich, ESPN.com ACC Blogger | 1 | ||||
| ACC SEC Blog | Tier 1 | ||||
| Sagarin | 21 | 3 | 84 | 27th in Predictor Ratings (power poll ranking) | |
| Acc Football Report | 15 | 2 | |||
| AP Poll | 20 | 2 | |||
| Coaches Poll | 20 | 2 | |||
| Stewart Mandel (SI.com) | 16 | 2 | |||
| CBS Sports Blogpoll | |||||
| CBS Sports 120 | 20 | 2 | |||
| Harriss Poll | 20 | 2 | |||
| BCS | 19 | 2 | |||
| College Football News | 19 | 2 | |||
| Dr. Saturday | 18 | 2 | |||
| Avowed Resume ranker, formerly known as Sunday Morning Quarterback (SMQ). | |||||
You simply must take a look at This week's Fremeau efficiency Index rankings. Gano is on the front page!
I'll gladly side with the more advanced metrics; but they seem to be pretty split. The consensus is clearly high teens, however, which is about where we should be at this point.
The Updated Blogpoll Ballot
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| Rank | Team | SCHEDULE STRENGTH |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas Tech | 59 |
| 2 | Alabama | 71 |
| 3 | Texas | 25 |
| 4 | Florida | 61 |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 68 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 44 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 22 |
| 8 | North Carolina | 27 |
| 9 | Georgia | 14 |
| 10 | Penn State | 47 |
| 11 | Ohio State | 10 |
| 12 | California | 54 |
| 13 | Michigan State | 44 |
| 14 | South Carolina | 74 |
| 15 | Missouri | 46 |
| 16 | Oregon State | 20 |
| 17 | Wake Forest | 37 |
| 18 | Georgia Tech | 5 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh | 63 |
| 20 | Florida State | 39 |
| 21 | Miami (Florida) | 3 |
| 22 | Cincinnati | 50 |
| 23 | Virginia Tech | 7 |
| 24 | Mississippi | 6 |
| 25 | LSU | 11 |
It seems that I was the Boldest pollster of the week. Does anyone else find those strength of schedule numbers interesting? I'm sure UNF will want to see USC down again. If OU beats TT or plays even with them, I will bump them.
Life on the Margins FSU Edition
| CLEMSON | FSU | |
| TOTAL YARDS | 316 | 419 |
| 1ST DOWNS | 22 | 22 |
| YARDS PER PLAY | 4.5 | 6.7 |
| YDS per POSSESSION | 24 | 38 |
| AVG START | CU 27 | FS 35 |
| TURNOVERS | 2 | 2 |
| YARDS FOR POINTS | 290 | 346 |
| Yards on scoring drives (including penalties) | ||
| SWING POINTS | 7 | 7 |
| Points on defense, special teams, or drives less than 25 yards | ||
| WASTED YARDS | 83 | 85 |
| Yards on non-scoring drives (including penalties) | ||
| FINAL SCORE | 27 | 41 |
That's something I borrowed from Dr. Saturday (Formerly SMQ)
- Clemson was ALL boom or bust: 290 of their 316 total yards were on scoring drives.
- Gano's impact is immediately felt. Clemson's average starting field position was their OWN 24 yard line, even with the drive that began at FSU's 9 (following the Carter Muff).
- Net Yards Per play is one of the highest indicators of success, and 6.7-4.5 is a dominant net of 2.2NYPP
Let's go inside Boston College
Jeff Cameron brought this up today and I'd been looking into some of the same things. Let's filter out all the noise (non conference filler) and take a look at the per conference game performances of BC and FSU.
FSU Offense
FSU Defense
| Total Off. | Rushing | Passing | ||||||||||||
| Opponent | Pts | Plays | Yds | YPPA | No | Net | Att | Comp | Yds | YPA | TD | Int | Sacks | TFL |
| Wake Forest(3-12) | 12 | 68 | 276 | 4.1 | 38 | 59 | 30 | 17 | 217 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Miami (Fla.)(41-39) | 39 | 63 | 256 | 4.1 | 14 | 51 | 49 | 21 | 205 | 4.2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| North Carolina St.(26-17) | 17 | 47 | 338 | 7.2 | 22 | 157 | 25 | 13 | 181 | 7.2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Virginia Tech(30-20) | 20 | 56 | 243 | 4.3 | 34 | 82 | 22 | 12 | 161 | 7.3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| Georgia Tech(28-31) | 31 | 51 | 343 | 6.7 | 45 | 288 | 6 | 4 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Clemson(41-27) | 27 | 71 | 316 | 4.5 | 36 | 79 | 35 | 20 | 237 | 6.8 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| ACC TOTALS | 146 | 356 | 1772 | 189 | 716 | 167 | 87 | 1056 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 45 | ||
| ACC AVG/ Game | 24 | 59 | 295 | 5.0 | 32 | 119 | 28 | 15 | 176 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 7.5 |
BC Offense
| Total Off. | Rushing | Passing | ||||||||||
| Opponent | Pts | Plays | Yds | YPP | No | Net | Att | Comp | Yds | YPA | TD | Int |
| Georgia Tech(16-19) | 16 | 77 | 262 | 3.4 | 41 | 120 | 36 | 18 | 142 | 3.9 | 1 | 2 |
| North Carolina St.(38-31) | 38 | 81 | 578 | 7.1 | 30 | 150 | 51 | 34 | 428 | 8.4 | 2 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech(28-23) | 28 | 69 | 300 | 4.3 | 37 | 82 | 32 | 16 | 218 | 6.8 | 1 | 3 |
| North Carolina(24-45) | 24 | 63 | 244 | 3.9 | 21 | 40 | 42 | 28 | 204 | 4.9 | 2 | 3 |
| Clemson(21-27) | 21 | 69 | 236 | 3.4 | 30 | 120 | 39 | 18 | 116 | 3.0 | 1 | 0 |
| ACC TOTALS | 127 | 359 | 1620 | 159 | 512 | 200 | 114 | 1108 | 7 | 9 | ||
| ACC AVG/ Game | 25 | 72 | 324 | 4.5 | 32 | 102 | 40 | 23 | 222 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
BC Defense
| Total Off. | Rushing | Passing | ||||||||||||
| Opponent | Pts | Plays | Yds | YPPA | No | Net | Att | Comp | Yds | YPA | TD | Int | Sacks | TFL |
| Georgia Tech(16-19) | 19 | 53 | 235 | 4.4 | 40 | 162 | 13 | 6 | 73 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| North Carolina St.(38-31) | 31 | 55 | 253 | 4.6 | 22 | 35 | 33 | 19 | 218 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| Virginia Tech(28-23) | 23 | 65 | 240 | 3.7 | 38 | 150 | 27 | 12 | 90 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| North Carolina(24-45) | 45 | 66 | 352 | 5.3 | 36 | 114 | 30 | 19 | 238 | 7.9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Clemson(21-27) | 27 | 64 | 339 | 5.3 | 31 | 87 | 33 | 21 | 252 | 7.6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| ACC TOTALS | 145 | 303 | 1419 | 167 | 548 | 136 | 77 | 871 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 26 | ||
| ACC AVG/ Game | 29 | 61 | 284 | 4.7 | 33 | 110 | 27 | 15 | 174 | 6.4 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
What can we learn from this?
- BC's defensive prowess is massively overstated. They are dead last in points allowed per ACC game (29), while scoring only 24 per contest.
- BC has been outscored (145-127), outgained (324- 284), and has a negative yet yards per play total of -0.2 (a good way to measure team strength-- better if you can take out garbage time drives, which I can't)
- In contrast, Florida State scores 28 per contest, while allowing only 24.
- Florida State has played one horrific game (Wake), while BC has laid several eggs. Taking out the Wake game form the numbers reveals a significant upward trend in production. Boston College's resume offers no such outlier game.
- Boston College is consistently underwhelming, while FSU is slightly above average with the Wake game, and dominant without.
- FSU and BC share 4 common opponents (GT, VT, NCST, CLEMSON). FSU outscored that quad 125-95, while BC outscored them by only 3: 103-100.
- In their last 2 conference games (UNC & Clemson), BC has been outgained by 231 yards.
- For all the talk about BC's huge size advantage, they avrerge only 2 yards on the ground.
It's been a long day. We should allpray for everyone involved in the yesterday's brawl.
Thursday will feature the conclusion of "isnide the Seminole Film Room" as well as "the conversation."
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15 comments
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Comments
I'll get this commenting started by noting that
BC ranks 19th overall, 37th in offense, 7th in defense, 114th in kicking, and 92nd in coverage teams.
BC doesnt have a runnng QB in the and from the look of it they dont have a good rudhing Offense. This works great for us. If it comes down to it. I feel Our Def will make them pass and if we get a good day out of our D line BC could be in trouble. I trust in our corners. The only team that the BC secondary realy stoped was VT because GT just didnt pass. I feel we could throw on these guys. As for the running game I think we can get it rolling also but we have to stick with it. We need to pound it right at them. you have the ACC AVG/ Game YPPA at 4.7 I think we can do better than that. Pounder could rack up some yards in this game I bet. I dont think a QB draw up the mid would work to well and we dont need one of those 300+ DT falling on him but if we could just get a block on the DE and a good double team on the DT. Also some reverses and screens would work so well. I just dont see this team and all the speed. at least not like our speed.
Well, he [Their QB] can run some
If BC throws 40 times in this game they will lose.
You’re right on the goal of the YPP— we need to shoot for 5.5+
Anything that requires their DT’s to move laterally or change direction will work well today.
by Bud Elliott on Nov 13, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Your stats debunk the media trend
All I’m hearing in the AP is that this game will come down to their WONDERFUL run defense and our apparent NEED to run the ball.
Your stats indicate what I believed anyway….we are a balanced offense. almost right down the middle.
I don’t think they can move the ball consistently and I think if they play an exagerated run defense we can keep them off balance ALL DAY. Sorry, AP I just don’t see this one close!
That surprised me as well (the balance on offense)
I can tell you, as I said to Desman, that if BC throws 40 times they lose.
by Bud Elliott on Nov 13, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
USC
Haha, fair enough. Those two spots are debatable. I will have more thoughts on this article in a couple of hours, however, as much as the numbers are in our favor, i get a bad feeling. However, I am the ultimate pessimist when it comes to football. Anyway, be back later this morning. Good job TN, as always.
I think missdirection will work this week. I hope we see counters and zone R cutbacks for good yards. when they go to stay at home we drop the screens and get those SS up and then go long. start all over again and just keep them playing out position. We can tear them appart.
I don’t know about this. Running a lot of mis-direction could really come back to bite us as BC might not have enough time to get out of position. I think we need to run some to keep their pursuit honest, but I think we can out run them for the most part.
well the way I see it is if we use misdirection that will force them to contain and screens will see the LB stay at home we could even get the SS to cheat up to stop it. The sec. Ponder sees a SS come up you have Carr, Serncey go down the side line and PP post up. one of them will be open. Im not talking about getting them out of position during the play but before.
I think we'll be fine...
If you look at BC’s Defense Net Rushing yards allowed per attempt it’s: 3.3 (Ours is a lovely 3.7) If (a big if) we can get 3 yards on first down rushing the ball…I’ll take that any day. Additionally, for such a “staunch defense,” they are averaging 5.2 TFL per game while we have a nasty 7.5. Our number is slightly inflated by the Clemson game (but it is pulled down by the GTech game). If you take out the Miami game, which their 39 points did not reflect how our defense played in that game, we are giving up way fewer points. Yes, they do have two large defensive tackles who will likely go on to play on Sundays and a great defensive tackle can make it difficult for an offense, but we have our ways to get around them. Too many threats for them to handle.
If we can contain the beef up front, stay patient with the rushing attack and take the occasional shot down field, we’re fine. We have an electric offense (let’s hope they’re all there for the game) and our defense is improving every week. I totally disagreed with the BC bloggers on how a 17-0 win over an ailing ND was so great. Watch out BC you’re about to get all you can handle.
Spot. On.
This may be one game where our boom or bust (stopped for no gain or gain 20) running game really plays in our favor, as BC is designed to not allow you to churn small runs against them every time.
Check this phil steele quote (he disagrees with their take on the ND game as well:
Florida St was even more impressive than the final score indicates last week as they fumbled a punt setting up a Clemson TD, roughed the punter allowing Clemson to drive for a FG and FSU was intercepted in the end zone. BC was nowhere as near as impressive as the final indicates vs Notre Dame as they benefited from a 5-0 turnover edge and were outgained 292-246.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA ST 34 Boston College 13
by Bud Elliott on Nov 13, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
Adding a couple of things if you don't mind...
A couple of more things those numbers tell us….
They pass more than we do…..What does this mean? One it means they have struggled to get their running game going. Yes, they average 4.5 YPC can always be a little misleading. The fact that they average 5.5 YPA means they are trying to get some quick hits in the passing game to spread out the defense so they can TRY to run. This doesn’t play into FSU’s favor quite as much as it may if they were a run-happy team. We need Carter and P-Rob to play physical cornerback football. They must content every route. If they don’t it could be a long day of first downs for BC. If we have to start widening the LB’s out in coverage it opens up the middle of the field for the run. However, this isn’t the match-up that people are worried about. I imagine Mickey will have a good game plan. I would also be interested to see each teams stats about sacks allowed. That could play a key role in the matchups.
I do like the stats that this provides as far as our offense vs BC def. However, we know stats don’t always hold up in games. Like I said earlier, I am just a little bit nervous about this. I know TN is predicting a big, decisive win as is Cameron I just don’t buy it. I think its going to be a grind it out type game.
TN, would we consider BC’s receivers to be possesion or speed or a good mix? I heard JCameron talking about playing man-up on them…..but I just haven’t had time this week to read a ton or do much research. Thats why I depend on you to do it for me. Thanks again for keeping us informed and your enthusiasm for Nole football. I wish everyone shared it.
I may back off the huge blowout slightly due to yesterday’s events.
Your coverage evaluation looks correct, but look at how badly the NC State game inflated BC’s offensive stats. Without that, their passing game is horrid.
BC’s wideouts aren’t fast. Robinson looks decently quick, but if PRob wants his NFL money he will have to show that he can dominate someone like that. We will play man. I worry that they go maxpro and we get caught in blitzes that never arrive.
I think we should Blitz all day but only 1lb at a time. 5-5 plus we might not have to blitz if we get a good game from the DE and I think we might. Those guys are talking like its a game to them and thats a good thing. when its a game of who can get to the QB first. I just hope they get our DT invovled with it too.

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