3rd and Losing (Sunday's open thread)

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 3:48 PM EST in FSU Football Comment 20 comments

I'm pouring over the results from last night. I'll update this throughout the day.

Everyone wants to discuss the 3rd down performance. Let's go deeper. This game was won (or lost) on 3rd and LONG. Advanced football metrics define 3rd and long as 3rd and 5 or more.

To be clear, you shouldn't expect an offense to succeed in 3rd and 5+ situations. The average conversion rate is a around 30%. Defenses strive to put their opponent in 3rd and long situations. That is the concept of leverage that we talked about last week. Let's take a look at how the Noles did with their 3rd down and long opportunities:

BC faced 3rd and 5+ on 7 occasions. They converted 5.

3RD-LONG RUN  (2 RUN, 4 PASS)                
3-12 B41 #1   14 up middle  
3-10 F32 #41   8 over right guard (picked up the 4th-2 on the subsequent play)

3RD-LONG PASS
3-9  B20 #10 to #82    16 [    ] CR
3-12 F14 #10 to #18    14 [    ] FL
3-12 B45 #10 to #2     20 [    ] PO
3-11 F46 #10 to #82     - [    ] PO
3-G (from 6) Incomplete Defensive Pass Interference (Carter, Tony)

Pathetic. 71% (and one of the non-conversions was converted on the resulting 4th down!) Andrews was badly out-schemed. That's not a talent issue. That type of performance is a coaching issue. It is Andrews being too stubborn to adjust. Again, remember that Tony Carter said that Crane knew where he was going with the ball before the play.

How about Florida State on 3rd and long?

8 opportunities. 1 Conversion.

3RD-LONG PASS
3-5  B46 #7  to #86    14 [    ] CR
3-25 B46 #7  to #4    INT [    ] DP
3-9  F47 #7  to #86     - [    ] DP
3-13 B21 #7  to #86     - [    ] FL
3-7  F23 #7  to #6      2 [    ] SC
3-10 F40 #7  to #86     - [    ] SC
3-5  B33 #7  to #18     - [    ] SI
3-9  B32 #7  to #18     - [    ] SI

1-8 is a little bit worse than what you can expect to achieve on 3rd down (2-8 is more in line). That said, this team can't expect to do better than 1-8 on 3rd and long. As currently comprised, they aren't built to do that. As we've discussed before, this offensive line is not ready to protect for dropback passing. Ponder was late on several of these throws as well. Missing the wideouts hurt. The thing that disappointed me the most, though, was the play of the offensive tackles. We knew going in that we would struggle to pass block against Raji and Brace in the middle, but everyone figured that our tackles could handle the Boston College's ends. Datko and Sanders got bullrushed and BC was able to get pressure without blitzing.

...pass protections usually start out with the understanding that if the defense rushes five guys, you can pick them up, but your blockers will have to be able to block at least one defender (more likely 2) one-on-one. No pass protection scheme can count on double teaming all possible rushers. If you can’t handle anyone man-for-man, then a five man rush effectively becomes like a seven or eight man blitz, but also with sound coverage behind it._ Smartfootball.blogspot

BC's got the pressure of a 6 or 7 man blitz while rushing only 4. They played 7 in coverage all night and mixed their looks very well. FSU had 22 runs and 34 passes. BC ran 46 times and threw 28 times. I didn't love Jimbo's gameplan, but it was not horrible. He was handcuffed. Andrews had no excuses and must go after another underachieving effort from the men he leads. Jump on now or wait 2 weeks when UF comes in.

Also,

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Interesting.

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Comments

Just one question

Why, after finally finding some running game in the fourth do we decide to up and throw it just to get another INT in the dang endzone? We very well could have scored on that drive and ended up with a different result. Can anyone explain this to me?

by floundringaround on Nov 16, 2008 5:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Single coverage.

It’s Carr who is 6’6" and reportedly a good leaper, against a guy who is not very tall. The ball wasn’t thrown very well and Carr did not adjust well either. I like that matchup usually. What I don’t like is blocking with 8 men and still letting pressure come through. Christian got hit while he was throwing that ball. I get the idea to keep running the ball, but balance is key and they were finally creeping up on us. BC had started to adjust to commit to the run and finally got out of their slack zone. This was the matchup we wanted! We couldn’t block it, which is the current reality.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Terrible showing.

just getting done rewatching the game. The defense absolutely pissed away the game in the 4th quarter. They didnt show up and the few times they did we made stupid mistakes resulting in penalties. We couldnt even capitalize on the fumble they gave up. Disgusting defensive game. I agree this is partially MA’s fault but I think our defensive players were flat out undisciplined in this game. They do not stick to their assignments. They also desperately need a crash course in proper tackling technique. Several missed tackle or extra yards due to not wrapping up the man.

Pitiful showing by the D.

The offense was bad. However, not as bad as I thought while I was at the game. On our drive where we almost tied it up I think we shouldve continued running. I agree with you Uncensored that BC was starting to sniff it out, but its 1st and 10 from the 30 and we had the momentum. I Think if we run it we get 3-5 . Hit a few slants over the middle and be down in scoring position.

I also think making Ponder throw deep 4 times in a row with :20 to go was a bad call. I agree you have to keep going but I was eerily reminded of the UM game last year when the ball was put in the ground over and over by XLee. This is a confidence killer.

Lets hope we can bounce back. Bowden is confident to get all 5 suspended players back for Maryland. If we make corrections this week and show up to the next game I think we can win.

We have to win to preserve any chance of an ACC title shot. If we do win we just need to pray BC beats wake and falls to MD.

by FSUBrad on Nov 16, 2008 7:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What we need to do:

Whose fault is it when a bunch of veteran players who have played together for a long time lack technique in discipline?

To Do:
1. Find a rover for Maryland.

2. Address the tackle spot to see if Datko can play (elbow)

3. Find a way to take some blame of Bert Reed and let him play on the team still.

On the pick intended for Carr: there were 8 men within 7 yards of the ball. They had started to load the box for really the first time all game.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 7:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was wondering...

if Datko was even going to finish the game. On may occasions you could see him in the huddle squeezing his hand, moving it around as if he has lost feeling in it. That’s tough for a tackle to loose his outside arm like that.

Do you think we’ll turn to Greenlee or Tonga for the MD game? Greenlee played a significant amount in the Clemson game, I have a feeling we’ll turn to him if we have to.

by TrueCubbie on Nov 16, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am not sure on his status. The good thing is that we basically have a C- and 2 D+’s for tackles (Datko being the C-). The dropoff isn’t huge.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Andrew Carters blog today reported that reed would more than likely not lose his spot on the team.

Hopefully we can get him back as early as next week.

Earlier this week I read somewhere that rolle would definitely make the 2nd half and they think he might make the whole game.

by FSUBrad on Nov 16, 2008 7:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Keeping Bert Reed would be the only good news to come out this entire week.

Some people may not agree with it, and I have no doubt that eventually his career will go “up in smoke,” but he is dynamite with the ball in his hands.

I have been trying to figure out who we could recruit to replace him and let’s just say it will be a lot easier if 83 is still on the team next year.

That would give us the freedom to have Downs at safety and maybe even Rhodes or someone like that at corner. I assume Harley plays corner here. We’d still bring in Smith, Haulstead, and possibly Sanders to replace our senior wideouts. If Reed is still on the team it makes it less likely that we’d have pull in a miracle and get Sanders, Starling, AND a cover corner like Branden Smith.

by MattDNole on Nov 16, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to keep Reed and Surrency

I just want to win ballgames.

I do think we get Ricco Sanders. We are not getting Debose.

Matt, if I post a “Tuesday Open Recruiting Thread”, would you be interested in answering user’s questions?

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd definitely be around to post...

But I don’t know if my level of knowledge would ever be worth 10 bucks a month if you know what I mean.

I try to follow recruiting and be objective about it, without buying in to the subscription hype. Being in Tallahassee helps, especially with so many of our prospects within a reasonable area.

by MattDNole on Nov 16, 2008 8:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good Luck Rolle

I sincerely hope Rolle gets the Rhodes Scholarship. What a great ambassador for our U and what a pleasant departure from the thuggish stupidity that has plagued us for far to long.

This team has really only won 5 games. I do not count scrimmages against incrediably bad 1-AA teams as wins. Maryland should win and FL can name their score. The ACC is incredibly mediocre. Saying we’re a good team when comparing to the rest of the ACC – well, people applaud at the special olympics also.

The reins need to go to Fisher and I agree with the posts I’ve seen – Larry, Curly, & Mo +1 need to be put to pasture. The longer they stay, the greater the damage. Wow, how the once mighty have fallen.

by OGN on Nov 16, 2008 7:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

We're actually favored over Maryland (-1)

Good post OGN, hope to see you around more.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Myron Rolle.

I have mixed emotions about his situation. I’m all for him going after the scholarship and I truly hope he gets it. I don’t even really feel bad about him missing the game.

But to go on College Gameday and talk about how football just isn’t that important to you…
Maybe he should give his football scholarship to Givens and apply for an academic one.

by MattDNole on Nov 16, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Response

I don’t think that the 2 are mutually exclusive. He’s a good player, not a great player and I beleive he understands that. I beleive the question asked during the interview was whcih do you value more, a Heisman Trophy or the Rhodes Scholarship. Speaking only for myself, that’s a no brainer – the scholarship wins in a rout.

by OGN on Nov 17, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair.

And I guess he IS applying for an academic one =)

by MattDNole on Nov 17, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He didn't say football wasn't important

But rather that winning a Rhodes scholly was more important to him than winning the Heisman would be.

Frankly, I think Myron is a remarkably amazing player, and an even better person. Having a student athlete of his character is an absolute blessing. Lord knows we wanted him badly at BC, and were highly disappointed when he chose FSU over BC.

by BCMike22 on Nov 17, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you see him run down Montel Harris on the first play of the game?

That play was a microcosm for the entire game. We were always playing from behind, chasing. You could clearly tell we we’re faster and probably more talented, but were getting out-witted.

I don’t think we’re that bad. We’re just susceptible to smart teams scheming to be us. When we play into what they want us to do, we can be beaten. I think almost everything went right for BC and we were still in the game. They had a solid idea of what they wanted to do and we weren’t even paying attention until after they got the ball back on the onsides kick. It looked like 2006 where we were going on the field expecting to win because we were FSU. They shut down the run, sat back and baited us into throws, and ran the same play on offense over and over again. They hid the ball because they saw what G Tech was able to do, didn’t stay in the pocket long on throws, and beat us with misdirection.

I understand you need a solid offensive plan, but I really think we could have done the same thing they did. We should have run the bubble screen over and over again. It was there. Their DB’s were 10 yards away from our receivers on the LOS. Instead we were running gimmicky reverses and trying to pound the ball, and then ultimately do what they wanted us to do: Throw it long.

by Weasie on Nov 17, 2008 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reed/Surrency

I agree with those who are anxious to have them back, but I don’t think they would have made much difference Saturday. Yes, we could have spread BC out more, but when you are getting beat up front, all the skill players in the world can’t bail you out.

I just don’t understand why we can’t coach our LB’s to FILL THE CORRECT HOLE!!!

So many times, we’d chase ball carriers (or phantom ball carriers), leave our gaps and they’d run through untouched. It’s not that complicated, but GT and BC have shown that is too complicated for us.

by Fsued on Nov 17, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reed/Surrency

I think they would have helped a lot with Christian’s confidence, but that’s neither here nor there. From most reports they deserved to be suspended. Having them for Saturday’s game was not an option. I’m more concerned about next year and the year after that.

by MattDNole on Nov 17, 2008 9:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs