Noles by The Numbers (Updated), Blogpoll Final Ballot, Daily Notes, and Wednesday Open Recruiting Thread

Inside, you'll find the weekly compliation of Nole Numbers, my final Blogpoll Ballot, daily notes and links.  This is also Wednesday, which means we will ask and answer recruiting questions.

Please check out  yesterday's thread.  0 comments and not many views on what is a huge piece chock full of info.  I know it seems intimidating, but work your way through it and come away with a better understanding of Saturday's game.  Plus, I'm still adding evaluations to the article.  

Noles by the Numbers

Source National Ranking ACC Ranking SOS Ranking
Fremeau Effeciency Index 13 5th 39 (3rd hardest remaining) Opponent Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 18th Opponent Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 23th
The methodology behind the calculations are found http://bcftoys.blogspot.com/2006/10/efficiency-in-college-football.html, and this week's rankings are http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/fei-week-10-ratings (with full explanations) These interesting strength of schedule rankings are explained http://footballoutsiders.com/fei-ratings/fei-week-6-ratings Kicking Expectancy: 1st (by  a huge margin) Field Position Expectancy (measure of return and coverage teams): 100th!  Egads!
Phil Steele tied for 45th 7th 65th in Opponent Adhusted Pass Efficiency Defense
Dinnich, ESPN.com ACC Blogger INC
ACC SEC Blog 7th
Sagarin 25 4th 74th 30th in Predictor Ratings (power poll ranking)
Acc Football Report 24 5th
AP Poll NR NR
Coaches Poll NR NR
Stewart Mandel (SI.com) 28th 6th
CBS Sports Blogpoll 28th 6th
CBS Sports 120 28th 5th
Harriss Poll 28th 5th
BCS NR NR
College Football News 19 4th
Dr. Saturday 24th 5
Avowed Resume ranker, formerly known as Sunday Morning Quarterback (SMQ).



Blogpoll Ballot 

Rank Team Strength of Schedule
1 Texas Tech 67
2 Alabama

76

3 Texas 34
4 Florida 59
5 Oklahoma 55
6 Southern Cal 76
7 Penn State 51
8 Oklahoma State 32
9 Georgia 26
10 Ohio State 9
11 Missouri 56
12 Michigan State 45
13 North Carolina 10
14 Cincinnati 54
15 Pittsburgh 73
16 Miami (Florida) 1
17 Oregon State 25
18 Utah 105
19 Boston College 5
20 Maryland 18
21 Iowa 33
22 California 44
23 Mississippi 15
24 Florida State 21
25 Georgia Tech 6

This is not a power poll.  I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are.  I only rank teams based on their resume.  The poll is designed to be dynamic.  I try to start from scratch every week.  I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances.  I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams.  As always, I want your help.  Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y."  I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change."  Power poll rankings are dumb.

The teams ranked 16, 19, 23, 24 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend.  Several others had scares  How are those power polls working for them?  I do not consult major polls when doing this.  Their record of futility is clear.  Let the teams earn their rankings on the field.  I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible.  The AP Poll and it's counterparts are silly.  Ranking teams based on who you think is good is not going to work.  We don't know how great teams truly are until they play the games on the field.  I rank what happens on the field.  This system is not perfect.  I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.

 

Themes:

Reward Grinders.  I like to reward those who play difficult schedules.  Those mid-majors do not have to prepare for difficult games on a weekly basis, and I take that into account.   After finally getting a chance to watch these guys, I realized that they are not at the level of ranked teams from major conferences.  Additionally, their schedule strengths were incredibly inflated because they had all played each other, who were also ranked highly.  These teams are not talented.  They are able to focus on their 1 game of the year against a big-6 conference team for several weeks.  The BCS team views them as a schedule break.  Letdown city.  I am really against power-polling, but none of these teams deserve to play in a BCS game and I am no longer rewarding teams in any way for simply not losing to the likes of Eastern Illinois and Nevada.  Utah is in, but barely.

From the CBS SPORTS.COM Blogpoll Editorial:

Tomahawk Nation is a repeat Mr. Bold winner; last week they won by hating on the mid-majors and throwing in some other oddities like #14 South Carolina. This week: pretty much the same. Someone did prevail on TN to give Utah a chance, as they have wins over BYU, Oregon State and (uh, is this impressive?) Michigan, and the Utes surge eight spots. Everyone else outside a BCS conference can get bent.

Hey, I'm generally on TN's side here—I think the mid-majors in the poll above are generally overrated—but Utah is still under Oregon State, which, like… ain't right.

I give Utah some credit for winning their game against a decent Oregon State team, but Oregon State faced a much tougher schedule and their loss to Utah was by a minuscule 3 points, in a Thursday night road game-- a bugaboo for many teams.  I am also consistently lenient on teams who lose cross country road games.  

Tomahawk Nation pulls off the impressive feat of retaining Mr. Bold and winning Mr. Manic Depressive in the same week. Usually it's hard for an outlying ballot to change a lot without getting significantly closer to the norm. A large portion of the winning margin here is the disappearance of South Carolina, previously #14, for obvious reasons; that weird vote gave TN the edge.

I had been rewarding South Carolina under the "playing well, win or lose" idea, but their loss to UF was more damaging in my eyes than the aggregate value of their other 3 losses.  They're out.


Daily Notes

McClure done for the year, and Reed might stay on the team if the Report turns out better than originally expected.

Pete Futiak on the ACC:

1. The ACC
It’s finally starting to come together. John Swofford’s raid on the Big East for all the good teams (other than West Virginia) is starting to pay off as the foundation has been set for the ACC to become the super-conference it was supposed to be a few years ago.

Some might call it mediocrity with everyone other than NC State and Duke still with an outside shot at winning the ACC title, but this is the year when everyone is rising up. Tom O’Brien’s Wolfpack and David Cutliffe’s Blue Devils are hardly pushovers, while the rest of the league is getting really good, and it’
s still really young.

You scoff? Just look at some of the non-conference wins of note this year. There might be some blowout losses, like USC’s blasting of Virginia, South Florida’s crushing of NC State and Florida’s win over Miami, but Boston College (Notre Dame), Duke (Vanderbilt, Navy), Florida State (Colorado), Georgia Tech (Mississippi State), Maryland (California), Miami (Texas A&M), North Carolina (Rutgers, Notre Dame, Connecticut), NC State (East Carolina), Virginia (East Carolina), Virginia Tech (Nebraska), Wake Forest (Baylor, Ole Miss), have put together the best non-conference résumé of any league in America.

The league is only getting better with phenomenal coaching everywhere but, at the moment, Clemson. There hasn’t been a week off for anyone this year, and things are only going to get tougher as stars Butch Davis, Paul Johnson, Tom O’Brien, Jeff Jagodzinski and Randy Shannon have a bit more time to work with their respective programs, Frank Beamer, Bobby Bowden and Ralph Friedgen each producing, and Jim Grobe still working wonders at Wake Forest.

Give it one more year, maybe two, and the league will really start to rock. The pieces are in place.



Last Night's Basketball Performance

  Offense Defense
Date Opponent Result Site Pace Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR Eff. eFG% TO% OR% FTR
Sat Nov 15 Jacksonville (s) (sr) W, 59-57 A 69 85.6 52.4 26.1 18.8 73.2 82.7 36.0 16.0 33.3 26.5
Tue Nov 18 La Salle (s) (sr) W, 65-61 A 71 92.0 45.8 25.5 26.9 58.3 86.3 40.0 19.8 31.5 30.0

Well, it looks like we actually did deserve to win.  Out ball handling is totally atrocious.  I think we need to use the more veteran, lesser talented lineup on a more consistent basis.


Open Recruiting Thread

I'll post the choice questions and answers here.  Ask away. 

A new candidate for Defensive Coordinator: Phil Parker.  Look him up.  More later

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