Week 10 CBS Sports BlogPoll Ballot DRAFT
This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week. I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. As always, I want your help. Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y." I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change." Power poll rankings are dumb.
The teams ranked 1, 6, 15, 17, 24, and 25 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend. How are those power polls working for them? I do not consult major polls when doing this. Their record of futility is clear. Let the teams earn their rankings on the field. I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible. This system is not perfect. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.
3 unranked teams were favored over ranked teams on Saturday. All three won. West Virginia destroyed UConn. Cal convincingly beat Oregon. Georgia Tech really outplayed FSU until their QB went down with an Injury.
The AP Poll and it's counterparts are silly. Ranking teams based on who you think is good is not going to work. We don't know how great teams truly are until they play the games on the field. I rank what happens on the field.
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| Rank | Team | Schedule Strength (to date) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 56 |
| 2 | Texas Tech | 64 |
| 3 | Texas | 7 |
| 4 | Penn State | 66 |
| 5 | Florida | 10 |
| 6 | Southern Cal | 29 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 39 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | 85 |
| 9 | Georgia | 5 |
| 10 | Boise State | 114 |
| 11 | TCU | 99 |
| 12 | Utah | 88 |
| 13 | North Carolina | 24 |
| 14 | Missouri | 38 |
| 15 | Ohio State | 28 |
| 16 | California | 53 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 36 |
| 18 | Georgia Tech | 73 |
| 19 | Oregon State | 15 |
| 20 | Maryland | 80 |
| 21 | Mississippi | 9 |
| 22 | South Carolina | 31 |
| 23 | Pittsburgh | 32 |
| 24 | Wake Forest | 6 |
| 25 | Miami (Florida) | 20 |
Close: Ball State (Maybe), LSU (1 decent win, 2 blowout losses, the rest is total filler), Northwestern (had a tough time leaving them off. 2 losses and 52nd ranked schedule), Minnesota (2 losses 65th ranked schedule).
Themes:
Reward Grinders. I like to reward those who play difficult schedules. Those mid-majors do not have to prepare for difficult games on a weekly basis, and I take that into account.
I am really punishing these mid majors for their schedule strength. While big boy teams battle through their conference schedules, teams like Ball State play schedule padding fodder. There is no way these teams could hang with the big conference guys on a week to week basis. The attrition would eat them alive. I did not forget to rank Tulsa and Ball State. If any team in a major conference played their schedule, wouldn’t they be crucified in the media? NO team currently in this poll would have any trouble running through their two schedules unbeaten, and I think that says something about the evolution of our poll, as the resume system starts to produce a de facto power poll. That said, TCU, Boise, and Utah schedule much better than Ball State or Tulsa.
FSU: 4-2 (I do not count the 1-AA Games). 93rd ranked schedule. No way. The AP has us at #24, but that's just because they don't want to admit that we were ranked too high last week.
Tulsa: I never ranked Tulsa, throughout the entire year, and they were finally bounced by lowly Arkansas.
Tulsa just showed how bit a talent gap there is between the SEC and Conference USA. Although Tulsa is the best team in Conference USA and Arkansas is a bottom feeder in the SEC, Arkansas was able to march down the field with cool efficiency. Razorbacks quarterback Casey Dick completed 25 of 38 passes for 385 yards.
Ceilings: Those MWest and WAC teams are basically hitting a ceiling as they aren't playing anyone. Ditto the Big 10 teams. They're probably at their peak.
Rankings by Conference
B 12: 5, all in the top4
SEC: 5, and 2 in the top 5.
ACC: 5, only 2 in the top 18.
Pac 10: 3
Big 10: 3
MWest: 2
WAC: 1
Big East: 1
Teams that the AP and Coaches ranked that I did not.
15. LSU (See above).
16. Ball State (pathetic)
17. Brigham Young (NO quality wins, and a horrible loss to a mid-major). Silliness.
20. West Virginia-- the ECU and Colorado losses look horrible.
24. Florida State-- we are definitely overranked.
25. Northwestern-- no, but close.
Instead, I had these squads:
Miami
Wake
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Pittsburgh (I might regret this).
Oregon State
What do these have in common? Tough scheduling, and playing well within that schedule win or lose.
This is just the DRAFT, with your help, I will make changes and resubmit by Wed. Remember to help in the context of resume ranking. Let's talk about a team's resume.
UPDATED POLL INSIDE
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| Rank | Team | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Texas Tech | |
| 3 | Texas | |
| 4 | Penn State | |
| 5 | Florida | |
| 6 | Southern Cal | |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | |
| 8 | Oklahoma | |
| 9 | Georgia | |
| 10 | Utah | |
| 11 | Boise State | |
| 12 | TCU | |
| 13 | North Carolina | |
| 14 | Missouri | |
| 15 | Ohio State | |
| 16 | California | |
| 17 | Michigan State | |
| 18 | Georgia Tech | |
| 19 | Oregon State | |
| 20 | Maryland | |
| 21 | South Carolina | |
| 22 | Pittsburgh | |
| 23 | Wake Forest | |
| 24 | Miami (Florida) | |
| 25 | Mississippi | |
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This is usually my biggest argument with you. However, you are pretty dead on this week. I think there is a couple of arguments for a spot here or there, but in general….good job.
I told you that USC would drop relative to other teams as they didn't continue to add big wins.
Washington and Wazzu are horrible, and USC isn’t getting much credit for them in my book.
I’m not sure what to do with Penn State. I considered keeping Texas #2, since their resume is damned impressive, and then give TTech a shot to move past them next week by beating OK State. That’d be sort of radical, but it fits into the resume idea, ya know?
Anyways, I appreciate the praise. Resume ranking becomes less and less controversial as the season progresses.
What selection or omission would be your biggest gripe this week?
Ole Miss
The Rebels have 4 ‘good’ losses if there is such a thing, but they still have 4 losses. They are one loss from being under a .500 team. Outside of Florida, which is looking like a tremendous win (but UF just wasn’t on their game) their best win is against a descent Arkansas team. I would give Northwestern the nod until next week. Next week it will be obvious whether they should be in or out.
I like Utes over TCU. They have a very similar schedule outside of the OU game but are undefeated and there is something to be said for that. They play each other next week which will be a great game that will get little attention.
Also the OU vs USC is a tough call but I may give it to OU just because of USC loss to Oregon St (which I think is a bad loss v the Texas loss).
However, all of these are only one or two away and they are all toss-ups. Like I said, I think you did a really good job this week (not that you don’t work hard every other week, just differences of opinion). I LOVE your top 5. Perfect.
Go Noles!
Miami
I don’t see how you have Miami ranked and us not ranked… I can understand not having either of us ranked… but they should not be ranked considering we beat them head to head in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates
It's resume.
They have a better resume than we do, by a good bit I think.
You can’t really play the “they beat them so they must be higher” game. It gets really messy really fast.
Their losses are more respectable, even though they have 3.
Miami also has one more 1A win than FSU (5 to 4).
I understand that it's resume
but look at their resume and I think it isn’t better than ours at all… our losses are to Wake Forest with a good number of our players suspended and a GT team that might be the best in the ACC… they don’t have any bad losses but they also don’t have any impressive wins… Charleston Southern (who are they?), aTm (probably won’t be bowl eligible), UCF (2-6 and have to win out to make a bowl game), Duke (this isn’t the same ole Duke but it still is Duke), Wake (might be their best win but Wake can’t seem to score and rely on defense to win them games), and UVA (probably their best win and they needed OT and a choke job from the UVA kicker to do it)… basically they have beaten some bad teams and lost to some good ones with wins against 2 teams (Wake and UVA) that nobody really knows who they are… when there is this much uncertainty between 2 teams I think you have to look at their head to head match up… after all it is part of both teams resumes
Well, let's compare, with the Sagarin Score and Margin of Victory
Miami’s victories or losses are in bold.
Team MOV (Sagarin Rating)
Wins:
@ Miami by 2 (24)
@ Duke by 18 (32)
@ UVA by 7 (42)
Wake by 6 (36)
Virginia Tech by 10 (46)
@ Texas A&M by 18 (81)
@ NC State by 9 (99)
Colorado by 18 (88)
UCF by 6 (109)
Losses:
@Florida by 23 ( 2)
UNC by 4 (17)
@ Georgia Tech by 4 (34)
FSU by 2 (35)
Wake by 9 (36)
It looks to me like we’ve beaten up on a pretty soft schedule, and Miami has had a very respectable showing against a much tougher slate. They have the better wins, and while they have 1 more loss, their losses look better.
I didn’t say our schedule wasn’t soft cause pretty much anybody that plays in the ACC is going to have a soft schedule… i just think the difference between the 2 of us is so small that the head to head match up should give us the advantage
Well
we have the 93rd ranked schedule
Miami has the 20th.
I guess we value the schedule differently.
The BCS is garbage. Utah ranked 8th hardest game a garbage Michigan team. Boise ST hardest team Oregon TCU hardest game a blow out vs Oklahoma. Is the BCS for real. If FSU played in these conf. Then they would be ranked over them because we would be 8-0 also. This is just garbage. these teams havent done anything. The BCS needs a play off more than anything. UF lost a game to old miss but Im telling you they are the best team in the US right now. when they beat Alb. What are we going to do let them shoot over an PSU whos going to win out. or let Utah play in the NC because they have no losses. I guess its the only way to let a big ten team win it. The ACC is not the worst conf. in America. If any team in the ACC even NCST palyed these teams they would win. The ACC has better teams and the teams are a lot closer than the rest. They beat themselves. Im ok with this. There is not stand out team. FSU use to be that team but things change. I just think this year proves that we need something to change in the BCS. If the WAC and Mout West is so good give them the chance to prove it. There are 12 conf this is including Independents Make a barcket bassed on the rank and give all 12 conf 2slots. Make the best 2 teams at the end from each conf. throw them in the Bowl games and play it out. Screew the schools that didnt make it. they need to have better players and coaches. Now play it out. I know its not perfict but Im tired of the garbage
Utah beat Oregon State. That's a much better win than Michigan.
Overall though, I agree with the spirit of your argument.
Playoff > BCS > Old System
I just think USC is over rated. The Pac-10, Mout West, WAC is all garbage. Even the big 10. I think the big 12, SEC and the ACC are the best conf. The big east is not as good but better better than the west coast. I would love to see KS, Oak or play USC and blow them out. all those Big 12 teams none of them have a good D. thats why they score 50 points a game. I dont know maybe Im just pissed because FSU isnt on top anymore. I just dont understand the game. whats going to happen in a year or 2 when FSU off line is older, stronger and smarter. Our D drama is going to be ok I think everyone is just mad because of the lose. But we will be ok and we will move on.
USC and Pac 10
I dont think USC is overrated… and the Pac 10 is better than the Mountain West and WAC so don’t lump them all together… I doubt you would see any team blow USC out… since 2002 they have lost a grand total of 2 out of conference games (Texas in the national title game where I think they were probably the better team but just didn’t play as well on that particular day and to #6 ranked K State in 2002)… basically Pete Carroll knows how to coach in big games… for a team to have only 2 nonconference losses while having 7 conference losses in 6+ seasons says 2 things… when USC plays a big game they are ready and that they can get a little complacent with conference games and may struggle a little bit with teams that play them more often… the latter is true of pretty much any good team because as other teams play you more they become more familiar with your system and can gameplan more accordingly… also don’t make the mistake of mentioning the ACC with the B12 and SEC cause the ACC is pretty mediocre… we don’t have a single team that could even contend for 4th place in the B12 South or finish higher than 3rd in either half of the SEC

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