For Entertainment Purposes Only Week 11 159- 117 (58%): +30.3 Units.

That said, UF is the best team in the country as of today, in my eyes, and in the eyes of Vegas. I just think the line of 50 is a bit high and that we will see something like 31-7.

No protein shakes for dinner tonight

174-125 ATS on the year. 58%. +35.5 “Units” ($3550 if you’re playing $100 per game, theoretically of cource ;)

Honestly, I was playing on several factors.

1. The public believes the Pac10 plays arena league ball. The reality is that they are not that wide open of a conference. The public won’t let “actual scores of ballgames” get in their way though, and they continue to believe what they believe. They bet the over in this one heavily.

2. I always like to be opposite of the public.

3. When teams play each other often, the coaches are less important and the athletes become more important. Why? Coaches know the other’s schemes inside and out and it ends up being the players who play. So, how are the players in this matchup? USC has the best defense any of us have seen this decade; both personnel and scheme wise.

So after determining that USC’s D was all-time good and not just good for the year, I looked at Cal’s… Know what i found?

Cal has the NUMBER ONE opponent adjusted pass efficiency defense in the nation. Number 1. They play really good defense as well.

USC and Cal have both had less than excellent offensive years.

So, what I ended up with was two really good defensive teams facing offenses that they knew inside and out.

If this game is played on the East coast, the over/under is 40, not 50. When all those factors come together, I just hit it.

I won’t lie to you and say that I expected 17-3, but I did expect something like 27-7, 30-7, 30-10, 30-13, etc. I just didn’t see any way they’d score more than 42 points.

Hope that helps.

Oh, for the first time this year, I feel confident in saying “hammer the Noles at anything less than -10”