Previewing The Florida State Seminoles @ The Maryland Terrapins
by Bud Elliott on Nov 21, 2008 2:50 PM EST
in FSU Football
81 comments
After a brutal loss on national television, the Seminoles travel to Byrd stadium; where Florida State has not won since 2002. The mercury will be in the low 30's when the 'Noles take the field at 7:45, Saturday night.
This game is available to the entire nation. No coverage map needed. Our announcers are Ron Franklin (play-by-play), Ed Cunningham (analyst), Jack Arute (sideline). This is a once excellent crew that is still pretty good as Cunningham assists Franklin.
The monster preview... inside
Flip A Coin
Huh? Grab a quarter. Flip it 3 times. Can you get heads 3 times in a row? That's our chance of getting to the ACC-CG. Really. 3 coin flip games.
1. Boston College defeats Wake Forest (11/22 - 3:30) (FLIP 1)
2. Florida State defeats Maryland (11/22 - 7:45) (FLIP 2)
3. Maryland defeats Boston College (11/29) (FLIP 3)
Okay, so it's not exactly a triple coin flip; it's a bit less. We have roughly an 11% chance of making it.
Andrew Carter says No charges will come today!
Injuries of Note
Maryland had injuries in their secondary, and they might be without Hybrid linebacker Rick Costa, who punched a cop 2 weeks ago. If Costa is out, that helps.
For FSU, LT Datko is banged with an elbow. Don't be surprised to see him as a scratch. FS McClure is done with a knee injury. Jermaine Thomas still has some turf toe issues, but I think he can go. Myron will miss at least the first half of this game.
OUT: OL Will Furlong (foot), DB Mister Alexander (knee), WR Richard Goodman (knee), DT Toshmon Stevens (calf tear), DB Darius McClure (left knee) and DE Kevin McNeil (wrist).
PROBABLE: LB Maurice Harris (ankle).
When the Noles have the ball
Last week the offense moved the ball slightly below their ACC average, gaining 5.1 yards per play. Coming into the game, they were averaging roughly 5.4 yards per play. The turnovers hurt for sure, as the depleted offense ended 3 drives in interceptions.
This week, I look for a bounce back of sorts as FSU has a full compliment of receivers.
The key to this game, however, might be time of possession. I know that sounds crazy, but hear me out. In Maryland's 4 ACC wins, they've won time of possession by an average of 3 minutes. In their 2 ACC losses, they've lost time of possession by an average of 13 minutes.
Let's take a look at Maryland's ACC ONLY DEFENSE and FSU's ACC ONLY OFFENSE
Maryland's ACC Defense
There, now that we have a clearer picture...
We are going to run the ball a lot. Even though Maryland has a below average secondary and very few interceptions, they have been vulnerable to the run against good running teams. Clemson, UVA, and Va Tech all went for over 200 yards on the ground against Maryland. NC State went for 15. UNC got shut down, however they played in conditions that made the Miami-FSU game look dry and Maryland loaded the box with 9 and sometimes 10 men.
We want to run the ball a bunch in this game, control the clock, and pick our spots to throw.
So, the reasonable Goals?
- Run at least 65 plays.
- At least 5.3 yards per play.
- LEVERAGE: Less than 33% of total offensive plays occur in passing downs.
- 50% success rate on 1st down (gaining half of necessary yardage, so 5 yards on 1st n 10)
- 50% success rate on 2nd down (gaining 65% or more of necessary yardage)
- 55% success rate on 2nd down non passing situations (7 to gain or less)
- 40% success rate on 2nd down passing situations (8+)
- 50% success rate on 3rd & 4th down
- 65% success rate on 3rd/ 4th non passing downs (4 to gain or less)
- 35% success rate on 3rd/ 4th down passing downs (5+ to gain)
- 75% non-stuffed rate (gaining 2+ yards on 1st down runs and 1/3rd or more of the necessary yardage on 2/3/4th downs) on designed running plays.
- No more than 1 fumble per 25 carries.
- Go for 4th down in all appropriate situations
- Less than .33 drooped passes per 7 throws (works out to 2 or less per 28 throws)
- QB Rating of 120+ Clearly, we're not a high completion % pass game, but Jimbo has stated that he doesn't care about that. Low completion % but big plays are fine by me. A rating of 121 is roughly 16 completions in 28 attempts for 200 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.
- No careless throws into the flat. This is big, since these almost always go for a Pick-6.
- Special Sack Rate (sacks + Holdings on dropbacks / sacks + pass attempts + holding on dropbacks) of less than 11%. Yes, 11%. That isn't a typo. If we have 30 pass plays, we must not allow more than 4 combined holding penalties and sacks. Obviously, I would prefer 4 holdings and zero sacks, as we don't risk injury or fumbles with the holding, and as we all know, the team that commits more penalties usually wins the game. it's true. Maryland rushes the passer pretty well, and we need to use the pass in situations that are advantageous to us.
- 7 Yards per Attempt.
- 2 plays with 15+ YAC
- No more than 1 BadReadBadThrow (BRBT) per 9 passes. This is very important if they play zone.
- No more than 1 bad blitz pickup miss per 15 attempts (Marcus Sims, this is you). Maryland blitzes in weird ways and from weird looks with their 3-4 scheme.
- No Personal Fouls (except clipping, I'm fine with that here). I know that the team committing more penalties usually wins the game, but these are non-aggression penalties.
- No more than 2 turnovers
- No more than 1 bad snap (McMahon, please step your game up and play like what a FROSH AA should play like as a Soph)
- 60%+ Red Zone Touchdowns (Kicking is losing). We've done a decent job of this this year.
Maryland's defense isn't incredibly impressive. They're 66th in FEI defense rankings, and 81st in pass efficiency defense ratings (opponent adjusted). I expect FSU to run 40 running plays for 180 yards, have 4 QB scrambles for 32 yards, and 3 sacks for a loss of 24 yards. That's 188 yards on the ground on 47 "running plays". I think Ponder will get off 22 passes, complete 12, for 160 yards. FSU will hold the ball for at least 33 minutes and score 24 points, while committing no pick-6 type turnovers. This will not be a pretty offensive game, but it will get the job done. Maryland can play all the zone they want, early, but will have to abandon it if they hope to stop the run. Their linebackers can be quite undisciplined at times. Let's get back to the idea of holding the ball for long stretches.
When Maryland has the ball...
Maryland's offense is also en enigma.
FSU's defense.
Maryland puts up 17 points per game in conference, while FSU's defense gives up 25 points per ACC contest. Interestingly, it seems the FSU defense does poorly when they can't get off the field-- their yards per play numbers are not horrible.
Maryland has a decent quarterback in Chris Turner, a total NFL wide receiver in Darrius Heyward-Bey, and 2 above average running backs. Their line is good as well, specifically in the middle.
Maryland is extremely multiple in their attack, using more formations than anyone we see except for Florida. They use some motion, but not as much as Clemson.
Maryland has STRUGGLED AGAINST MAN SCHEMES! VT and UNC both play a lot of man coverage. Wake and NC State play a bunch of zone. Look at those differences. We have a shot here.
Maryland's opponent adjusted offense is 32nd nationall, while FSU's defense is 23rd.
I think we will use PRob on DHB, shading Jamie Robinson over the top. We'll use Tony Carter on their other wideout, and stack the box early and often. Our DT's often just guess which gap to hit, and that could work here, as we attempt to slow up their backs before they get going.
The Goals for the Seminole Defense:
- 50% or better defensive success rate overall.
- Less than 5 yards per play allowed.
- Force Maryland into 40%+ passing downs overall.
- 50% success rate on 1st down (preventing half of necessary yardage, so 4 yards or less on 1st n 10)
- 50% success rate on 2nd down (allowing less than 65% of necessary yardage)
- 40% success rate on 2nd down non passing situations (7 to gain or less)
- 55% success rate on 2nd down passing situations (8+)
- 55% success rate on 3rd & 4th down (not allowing a conversion)
- 35% success rate on 3rd/ 4th non passing downs (4 to gain or less)
- 65% success rate on 3rd/ 4th down passing downs (5+ to gain)
- 75% stuffed rate (now allowing 2+ yards on 1st down runs and less than 1/3rd of the necessary yardage on 2/3/4th downs) on designed running plays.
- Tackle Well: Less than 10 missed tackles (A Mickey Andrews Goal)
- Don't have your good work go for naught: 1 or fewer draws of 3rd and 6 or Longer for first downs. This is big!
- No rushing TD's in the red zone. Make Turner throw the ball accurately in tight spaces.
- Take good angles to the football: No more than 4 runs over 15 yards and less than 2 runs over 35 yards.
- Turner under a QB Rating of 120 overall. (120 is about 16 completions in 30 attempts for 200 yards; 1 touchdowns and 1 interceptions.)
- Limit Big Plays: no more than 5 passes of 15+ yards, and nothing over 45. See next goal.
- Selective Pass Interference: do not give up the deep ball. If they do throw it, interfere like crazy.
- Hit Turner: Play to the echo of the whistle. Have a sack rate (sacks / (pass plays + sacks)) of 8% or more. (32 pass attempts and 3 sacks, so 3/30). As Mickey said... "you never want to hurt anybody, but our kids understand that if a guy wants to take himself out of a ballgame that is his business. You have got to hit him, you have got to inflict some pressure on him with contact for that to happen...."
- Be studs on 3rd and long: make the tackle when they throw underneath and don't allow them to get the 3rd down. Limit Turner to a double digit QB rating in 3rd down passing downs.
- Do not fall for play action on short yardage downs: DB's rarely make these plays but are usually the ones burned for trying to help out too much.
- Confuse Turner Mix the coverages enough to confuse Harper. I'm annoyed that we give away our blitz too early. Let's wait to walk down, and at other times walk down and then back out.
- Create 2 turnovers.
- 10 "Stops" Mickey defines a stop as a turnover, punt, or a surrender on downs. That's fine by me.
- Less than 50% Red Zone TD Scoring
- No scores off sudden change (make MD get a first down off a turnover. Do not allow the home run immediately after a turnover)
- Hold MD under 315 yards. Mickey's goal is 300, but MD is a decent offense.
- Heyward Bey under 150 total yards. Make sure he doesn't break a bubble screen for big yards. He's the best WR we see all season.
MD will run 61 plays. 30 runs for 113 yards (including sacks) , and 31passes for 198 yards. They'll go max protect some, but we will do a slightly better job with our blitzing (or NOT blitzing). They'll score 21 points. We will continue to frustrate on defense, but the limited number of plays and possessions will be key as FSU's defense plays better on 3rd down.
Special Teams Concerns:
- FSU has the best kicking game in the nation; Maryland is 34rth
- Maryland is 44th in special teams field position (kick returns, punt returns, and covering those). FSU is 100th nationally.
I don't see any hugely glaring inconsistencies here. Gano helps us out a lot with the kickoffs and punts.
So, there you have it. 24-21, FSU. I'm not really confident in this, so don't go wagering on it. What do you think happens?
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On offense
If Maryland stacks the box against us we absolutely have to use the bubble screen game as a function of our running game. It is the most effective way we have to get 6 yards and chew clock and probably won the Miami game for us.
Absolutely
I wonder how this will work if they stack the box and spread their stand-up LB’s wide? If Surrency and Carr are there, expect a similar to VT attack, where we threw downfield to the tall guys.
Screen
No one has been able to answer this so I thought I may try here. Where has the HB Screen gone to this year? I believe it is one of our best plays and isolates the back on the defense able to make cuts and explode up field. Jimbo hasnt called it one time and I know that he had it installed at LSU. Antone has run it effectively since hes been here and who knows how JT would get the ball out of the backfield with downfield blockers.
Shot in the dark here
But most screen passes you see require the O-line to block going straight forward. We just don’t do that on a lot of our running plays, so we’d lose some of the element of surprise.
Also, as bad as our line can be on some plays, I don’t think you want to give them the freedom to let their guy go, as Christian might not recover from the hits he’d take.
That's the thing.
Maybe because our line was bigger last year. We do run the middle screen well and that tends to favor the more agile blockers. The RB screen doesn’t require as much athleticism but does require you to be able to block someone in a confined space.
See It
I just want to see the damn play ran a few times, I want JT or Antone isolated in open field and let them see something and burst through it………. I like the WR screens, I just would like to see it run with the HBs.
Does any one think
that Jimbo Fisher and Jack Bauer share a striking resemblance? I think Jack….I mean Jimbo figures out the zone this week. The reason I think zone is so hard for us to figure out is because on the short passing game its harder to understand where the man is coming from that you need to block. Esp, when they disguise the coverages (which BC did very well and gave Ponder fits). I think our offense plays a real solid game though. I think Da’Rell Scott gets his but we make Turner play his worst game this season. I think we are too good athletically for them to beat us. I would say this though, we need good coverage on our punts and kicks. They have some dangerous playmakers.
I feel confident, and because I am going to this game, they will obviously play harder. It is cold though so I wouldn’t be surprised to see another slow start. They get on us early but we battle back.
Jack Bauers offense and Sean Connery’s son get the job done. 28-13
FSU 38, MD 20
So far our level of talent alone has not won as many games as it should have (actually I don’t think talent alone ever beats any quality opponent unless we’re talking about Michael Vick or Vince Young—and yes I think we had coaches not solely relying on talent in lieu of their coaching abilities in the early years). I think too that our offense will have a solid game if we can get JT enough touches on the ball early so he can open up the passing game and we use a slant or quick strike passing game trying to take advantage of their corners. Solid running game plus quick throws for 4+ yards equals good time of possession in my prediction.
If that doesn’t happen, we might see a game similar to BC, we still probably pull it out at the end.
Question
What is our record at Maryland? What is it when they are ranked? Not that its relevant, just curious.
FSU v Maryland
We are leading the series 16-2. We’re 9-0 at home and 6-2 in College park. Prior to 2004 we had never lost to them. Since 2000, we are 14-16 against ranked opponents. Weird as it may be…we’re only 0-1 this year against opponents who were ranked at the time: see Wake Forest.
In our last two trips to College park we have lost 20-17 and 27-24.
Tortoise and the mare ....
I don’t like our chances in this game — I’ve really feared it all season. I think Fridge eats our lunch. We’ll move it some, but turnovers will be a problem because we won’t be able to stop them consistently and our offense will feel pressure to score.
I say …
Maryland 31
FSU 20
I too think it will be a close one...
So with all this talk of offensive balance, our defense doing well when it can get off the field and such, I decided to take a look our our efficiency on both sides of the ball, meaning I looked at how many points were score or allow per play. Some will look at points/touchdowns per drive, but I wanted to look at how we do when we hold onto the ball and when our defense makes stops. This can be looked at in a few ways, but I’ll try to explain my reasoning. If a team has a high points per play, it means that they likely score on big plays and have a short time of possession. Now that’s great if your defense can handle being on the field more often. Conversely, a team may have a low points per play but have a long time of possession, keeping their defense off the field, likely winning low scoring games…make sense? Please feel free to chime in with corrections or clarifications.
This year, we score an average of 0.51 points per play. In the ACC that drops to 0.40. Our opponents are scoring 0.32 points per play on the season and our average time of possession is 31:21. So…we are outscoring our opponents and hanging on to the ball longer, likely explaining our overall winning record. The scary thing is that our defense is giving up 0.41 points per play in the ACC.
Let’s look at Maryland. They have averaged 0.34 points per play all year and only 0.27 points per play in the ACC and they are giving up 0.27 points per play in the ACC. (Now I haven’t done the offensive and defensive points per play for all ACC teams, but I wonder if every team is so close and explains the conference standings)
So in ACC play, we score 0.4 points per play and MD scores 0.27. MD only averages 27:56 time of possession. So that alone would allow one to think that we could run up the score…but not so fast my friends…they are only allowing 0.27 while we are giving up 0.41. I bet this game will be another nail biter. 27-23 us.
For the hell of it, I looked at these numbers for a couple of other standout games this season:
Boston College:
BC points per play: 0.36 FSU points per play: 0.3 Pretty close right, but BC held onto the ball for 38:07 minutes. (This does not include their pick six these are only offensive numbers)
GTech:
GT points per play: 0.6 FSU 0.43 GTech only had the ball for 26:47 minutes. This demonstrates the big play quick scoring offense and possibly why it was close in the end, even though it really wasn’t.
VTech:
VTech points per play: 0.35 FSU 0.53 They only had the ball for 28:03 minutes.
Clemson:
Clemson points per play: 0.38 FSU 0.65 They had the ball for 31:45. So this shows that our defense held but didn’t break and we put up quick points.
I hope you all find this interesting/helpful…or something. Look forward to your thoughts.
Go Noles.
Excellent work, Truecubbie.
I think this lends further credence to an idea espoused by Rich of Chantrant.com. He basically said that our defense has an excellent possession, or a horrible one, and that this is a result of selling out to get tackles for loss, etc, and the offsetting big plays that occur when we don’t achieve that tackle for loss or turnover.
I think our offense finally dominates people next year, and in doing so, it’d be the perfect time to install our new ball-hawking defense!
I do have a criticism though: use yards per play. This helps to really filter out the “noise” created by field position. There was an article by football outsiders on this some years back. I wish i could find it. The key difference is the ability to filter our the touchdown given up by the defense when the offense takes over at the defense’s 11 yard line. Even though you’ve removed the BC pick-6, how about other defensive scores? What about the interception that gives the offense the ball at the opposition’s goal line?
The idea of “net yards per play” is one of the premier stats in CFB and yet, is very underrated.
I like the time of possession analysis quite a bit.
For the ACC games...
the data is only offensive points scored.
I agree that there are a lot of confounders in this analysis, but the field position swings “should” be relatively equal for all teams involved; it’s not perfect. Just an interesting way to look at what you do with the ball. I don’t think the argument of points per play can stand alone, you need the time of possession as well for it to make sense.
I too like the net yards per play…I was shocked to see TTech averaging almost 9 yards per pass attempt and almost 5 yards per rushing attempt…that is an effective offense.
Ah, okay
So the .4 points allowed per play doesn’t reflect it, but the ACC numbers do since they’re offense only. Got it.
Texas Tech is one of the best offenses we have ever seen.
wow
see this is why I love this site. you guys can brake things down for someone like me who dosent understand everything and even put it in a way for me to get it. I understand plays and things like that but the stats I never got untell I came here. Thank you to all who have helped.
Some very optimistic people
A lot of our fans are taking Maryland, which is surprising to me. The home team during a primetime game always has a great advantage. Oh crap, nevermind, I forgot about the BC game last week.
This is the one game I’ve pointed to since the first time I looked at the schedule and chalked up an L. I don’t think I can waiver on that now, especially after how pitiful the D looked last week, and especially since Maryland has seemingly exceeded expectations this year.
Maryland has always played tough at home and the Fridge has always emphasized home field advantage. They will be fired up.
This FSU team has continually proved me wrong by showing fight and toughness, which is night and day from the Jeff Bowden era. I hope they prove me wrong again, but I think this game is just too tough of a task. The silver lining to a loss would be an FSU team coming out against UF next week laying it on the line with their backs against the wall with nothing to lose.
crap
Not sure how to edit my post… but I meant to say…
“A lot of our fans are taking FSU, which is surprising to me.”
My bad.
Rooting Interests Today...
Just to remind me, is this the corrrect scenario for FSU to make the ACC Championship:
FSU beats Maryland today
Wake beats BC today
Maryland beats BC next week
Is that right? I’m not even sure I want to see this FSU team in the ACC title game. They definitely don’t deserve it this year, but then again, I guess no team has stepped up and really deserves it.
they don't deserve? huh?
Again, I go back to the pre-season expectations and look at how the defense has played OVERALL. Maybe the ACC is not the flavor of the month (year) but I think the SEC has shown that they are 3 teams strong and then there is a drop off that nobody expected. The Big 12 is interesting… but really, is these video game like scores truly GOOD football? I have to wonder… if FSU was 8-2 or 9-1 now and was winning 42-35 as an average, would Mickey Andrews be under the scrutiny he is on here? These Big 12 teams run up the scores and it is just assumed that nobody can stop them. Oklahoma sure has been a big bust in BCS games the past couple years. Texas Tech is this years Kansas… wait and see… they will be one of the pack sooner than later. Soooooo… FSU is as deserving as anybody if they somehow survive and can make the title game. The ACC (top to bottom) is competitive and the games are damn fun to watch. GaTech handled Miami the other night and it seems it was more lopsided than what happened to us in Atlanta…
42-35?
Personally, I would have a problem with Mickey’s defense if they were giving up 35 points a game. It’s about the process, not necessarily the results.
It all comes down to this: I don’t think we are getting the best out of our players’ talent. Would other schools be happy with 7 win seasons? YES. Do those schools recruit the type of players we do? NO. If we sent a team that wasn’t as talented but executed well and made the most of what they were able to do, and 7 wins is all they could get, then 7 wins is what I’d be happy with.
So again I’ll pose a question to you: do you think our players are capable of more than what we’ve seen this year?
I guess the answer to that question is this...
are these guys really that good? there are intangibles beyond athletic prowess that should be questioned. Like I wrote yesterday, it seems some of these guys are living on the swagger and reputation that was built before they thought about a college to attend. Ponder will be a helluva QB, the O-line will develope, the other skill positions have promise with gained experience. Now, we will lose alot on defense after the season… but look at what Wake will lose this year. It is a opening for some hungry guys to come in and shine. I think there are times I do cringe when you see a long pass play in progress. Honestly, if the athletes are that good and have that much potential, man to man coverage should not be as difficult as we see from time to time. I do think Mickey could/should adjust more… but again, if we had the best scheme around, it still comes down to players playing the game and executing. If I was in Division 1 football and was in a school with the reputation of FSU I would think about how close I am to the NFL and $$$. I would be motivated enough to stay out of trouble, play hard and support my teammates. seems like a no-brainer. lol
Great post.
It’s hard for me to remember sometimes that Terrell Buckley is on the sidelines, not the field. Deion Sanders and Peter Boulware aren’t suiting up anymore. I still do have high expectations for such an experienced D, but maybe they are a bit too high.
If I was in Division 1 football and was in a school with the reputation of FSU I would think about how close I am to the NFL and $$$.
Really? Without any decent coaching? “They knew where to go with the ball on every play” _Tony Carter
Andrews is totally washed up. He knows it. The administration is finally realizing it. I LOVE Mickey. I have his posted on the inside of my closet door. He’s my favorite FSU coach (not Bobby). He has been through a lot; he just should not be through any more as a coach at FSU.
My point is that Mickey isn’t putting guys, specifically DB’s (the position he coaches) into the NFL unless they are total freaks (Cromartie). Where is the development?
by Bud Elliott on Nov 22, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
coaching should not be needed...
for mental miscues. punching into piles and other personal fouls is something at this level you should not have to be coached on. I would understand if they were giving up tons of points and 3-7 or so… but really, personal pride could make up for some coaching deficiencies, right? I think I am just asking why players are being called out more for their actions? and, as far as off the field transgressions… I cannot help but remember Lefty Driesell being ran out of Maryland for the Len Bias death. I loved Lefty and had a cousin play at Maryland in the late 70’s… he was expected to be a baby sitter for a guy who was set to become a multi-millionaire. Even at my young age I could not understand that. Well… Bob Wade was brought in and was going to restore INTEGRITY and PRIDE and DISCIPLINE. hmmmm… a few short years later he was ran out of town and the program was on probation. I have never liked UM since. I guess if you can prove a coach is turning a blind eye to obvious criminal and ncaa violations, he should be held accountable. But if these young men decide to act like renegades what are you gonna do? maybe I got of this topic a bit, but it does tie together… how much do we wanna BLAME coaches for the bad and good and how much do we wanna blame the players for the same? It has to go both ways. And again, if my dream was fame and fortune in the NFL, I would do all I could do to improve. It’s not all coaching
"coaching should not be needed...for mental miscues" Your words, not mine.
The fact is that our defensive coaches are well below average. Coaching is absolutely reflected in mental mistakes. You see this all the time.
What the heck are you talking about “acting like renegades?” I am talking about the POOR DEFENSIVE COACHING that is currently happening in our own program. These players want to improve; they just are receiving poor instruction from the men who are paid to instruct them.
Your ability to continue to sidestep the discussion is astounding.
by Bud Elliott on Nov 22, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
I guess the definition of POOR DEFENSIVE COACHING is...
open to debate. Out of all D1 programs… where would you put our defensive coaching staff? top 30? mid 30? lower 30? or bottom 30? If I can guess the answer, then how in the heck do we have the overall stats? let me guess… their raw athletic ability. OK, coaching should not be needed to avoid personal fouls and stupid mistakes that happen too frequently. Again, these rules are the same from pee-wee to pro’s. It is when you put great players and great coaches and some lightning in a bottle (not literally) and VOILA! A NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP. If the ingredients are lacking in any category… that is what separates #1 from #5, #10, #20, etc… I am not being evasive, I am trying to find out the formula for success.
Probably the lower 30.
Player performance on the field is often reflective of the coaching staff. Amato was allegedly brought back to instill discipline. That’s laughable as his teams often led the conference in penalties.
Again, I implore you to measure performance relative to potential. FSU has the potential to be great. We bring in stud recruits. They do not develop into an elite defense.
Again, we do not have the overall stats. You’ve mentioned this a few times and I’ve shown this information twice.
SU was in the top 25in the opponent adjusted pass efficiency defense rankings every year until 2003. The last 3 years: #74, 43, 50. This year: 65th.
This is on Mickey. He is the de facto defensive backs coach.
Also, we’re not producing top 10 yardage defenses anymore.
07: 42nd. That’s not even in the top 3rd.
06: 18th
05: 14th
Scoring Defenses:
08: 32nd
07: 34th
06: 37th
05: 28th
Thats in a pathetically bad offensive conference: THE ACC.
Mickey and his staff are not turning highly rated talent into top level production.
Coaching is needed to avoid personal fouls and stupid mistakes. This idea that the rules are the same since pee-wee is illogical. By your logic, why have high school coaches? Why have college coaches? Pee-wee should do the trick. Mickey and the boys don’t have it anymore.
Luckily, our administration may finally be fed up with building statues and writing huge checks for poor or no (Bobby) performance over the last few years. Your huge paycheck is not a thank you for past performance. Good schools expect better. Sensible fans demand better.
not my logic there... although, some high school coaches could go bye-bye
I will stand by the statement as it was intended: COACHING is not needed for following the rules. Rules that are taught from Day1 of playing football. If you have a temper that gets you penalized, other than benching you, what coaching helps? men being told… no, no, no, don’t do that! late hits out of bounds… ??? again, they KNOW better. I think up until that last drive in the BC game that the defense was doing enough to win. I also believe that the personal foul that gave BC a first down instead of having to punt was the dagger. It seemed from that point the team gave up. Coaches fault? I don’t see that. Again, should these guys in the game be motivated enough to put plays like that behind them? It’s a blame game here and it seems we both put the majority on different people. I know people hate using examples outside of football here, but what the hell… it reminds me of kids who blame their troubles on coming from broken homes and those of us who had a regular mom/dad household have no excuses when we may screw up… what? you had EVERYTHING! I guess I am from the school of taking responsibility. Alot of penalties and personal fouls are dumb, boneheaded stunts that all the coaching in the world cannot stop… other than screaming and yelling and benching them
You're getting off track again.
You say we are still producing. I produce the numbers and show that we aren’t anywhere close.
Most penalties are not bad, wolf, as I’ve explained here in countless pieces. Our problems are teaching technique, not developing talent, and pairing that with poor schemes.
We played poorly much before the final drive. I am from the school of taking responsibility, and right now, you’re arguing that the players should just develop naturally. I say the coaches must develop them.
In the end
It is alwasy the coach’s resposbility to make sure we have the right players on the field, trained properly, and mentally ready. Sure, the can’t control every thing a player does out of emotion, but then refer back to sentance one…
Deserving
My comment was really based on the fact that every time we are in the driver’s seat and control our own destiny, we drop the ball. Good teams win games they are supposed to win. Good teams take control of their destiny and don’t rely on other teams having to lose.
I agree that we’re a young team and would not call this season a “disappointment,” as I think we are finally building towards something.
Nope, you're rooting for BC today
You need BC to beat Wake, then lose to Maryland next week.
2 scenarios
In either case, we have to beat Maryland.
Wake beats BC… 3 way tie at 5-3. But I’m pretty sure we’d lose Divisional record tiebreaker and be out.
BC beats Wake, Maryland beats BC…. we’re then in a 2 way tie with Maryland and we’d have the tiebreaker.
So Mike is right, if you think we have a chance at Tampa, root for Florida State and BC today, then Maryland next week.
Yes. 1 scenario.
It must be the FSU > MD, BC > WAKE, MD > BC.
by Bud Elliott on Nov 22, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks Guys
Andrew over at Chopping Block had posted the scenario I asked about ealier in the week and it didn’t make much sense to me. Thanks for the clarification.
Can we trade you for Gano?
Maybe a couple LB’s or something? Fair trade, pls.
Very tempting...
Given that both Raji and Brace are seniors (wipes tear), they don’t have much eligibility left…is Gano a frosh? If that’s the case…hell, even if it’s not…I’ll do it.
Lost two games this year due to crappy FG kicking. Sigh
Gano is a senior.
Lost one game this year to a team running the same damn play. Andrews shakes head
by Bud Elliott on Nov 22, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
well take your DT for Gano I think its a good trade
Its hard to say Gano could make FSU win almost any game. This kid is gold.
Kind of a random place to post this...
But I don’t see Michigan beating Ohio State any time soon. Like… 3 or 4 more years at the very least.
Kinda OT:
Remember the Maguire/Theismann/Mike Patrick crew that did a horriffic job on ESPN Sunday Night football? Thank God those days are over…
"Your eyes can decieve you. Don't trust them." Obi-Wan Kenobi, the first sabermetrician...
by Curtain Jerker on Nov 22, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
Mishigan and ND
Im glad to see those schoold take the coaches they took. I hate them both. The only school in the big 10 I like is Wisconson but hell they suck this year too. I hope they can bounce back though next year.
nevermind...i found it
1. Boston College defeats Wake Forest (11/22 – 3:30) (FLIP 1)
2. Florida State defeats Maryland (11/22 – 7:45) (FLIP 2)
3. Maryland defeats Boston College (11/29) (FLIP 3)
"We have roughly an 11% chance of making it."
Wouldn’t it be more of a 25% chance? I mean, us taking care of business vs Maryland kind of has to be taken as a given if we want to even have a right to bitch about having a shot at the ACCCG. So it is really two coin flips. No?
Our game is still a coin flip, otherwise we're assuming a win.
Im stating our actual chances. if you give us 25%, the other team’s chances do not make sense.
Well the game is a coin flip, but what I'm saying is if we don't win it
we have no room to even care about the other two. So we still hold that percentage in our hands.
I am saying that the chance of the chips falling in our favor, assuming we beat Maryland, are roughly 25% no? I just think that’s the most important part.
Well, the odds are drastically in our favor now...
consider that BC is beating wake.
Chris Crane is out for the year with a broken collarbone.
My guess is that if we beat Maryland, the chance BC holds and Maryland beats BC is roughly 34-38% combined.
Don't hold your breath.
BC’s backup QB is garbage. I have no doubt that he will give this game away.
B the W, why do ACC refs suck so bad? How they missed that replay is beyond me.
B12 and Pac10 refs are bad as well. B10 refs are notorious for not knowing rules.
ACC refs talk too much and are flag happy.
Another slightly OT:
Could it ever get as bad at FSU as it was at Penn State for a few years (I wanna say 2003 and 2004 they had two 3-9 teams) or Michigan this year?
I mean, two back-to-back 7-6 seasons is bad, but we didn’t crater the way those programs did…so I gues I have 3 questions:
1. Can it ever get that bad at FSU?
2. If the answer to #1 is “yes,” then how?
3. If the answer to #1 is “no,” then what makes us immune to that sort of collapse? The recruiting base? The ACC?
"Your eyes can decieve you. Don't trust them." Obi-Wan Kenobi, the first sabermetrician...
1. Yes.
2. the acc is getting very good. We’d need the sanctions to kick in hard. We’d then need Jimbo to leave, for Bobby to run us further into the ground for 2 more years. We could build 2 more statues.
maybe, just maybe...
the negative vibes can take a holiday hiatus and we can enjoy this night. I will wait anxiously to read how Mickey and Co. had nothing to do with anything that happened tonight. FSU will never tank like Michigan and Notre Dame… I would bet my house on it. And really… I wouldn’t mind seeing another statue of Bobby. It’s a feel good night in November, a week ago very few thought that would happen. good night folks!
Mickey had plenty to do with tonight.
And he did it by doing a lot of the things people on here have called for: changing his play calling tendencies. Bringing pressure without selling out your coverage.
Florida State could have fallen that far if Jeff had not been let go.
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