MBB Game 4: Coastal Carolina 70, FSU 82

3-0...we're lucky.

Here's the early preview on tomorrow night's game against Coastal Carolina in the first round of the UNLV Global Sports Challenge and the Game Thread. Enjoy.

Believe it or not we can win close game, unfortunately they're not the teams with which we should be in close games. The Noles have won their first three games by 8 points combined.

Before discussing tomorrow night's opponent, let's look how Hamilton's Talent is doing thus far. Below is a discussion of the stats presented by: http://kenpom.com/rate.php who bases his team rankings and stats on many things that may be unfamiliar to you. His principles of ranking teams is based on the work of  Dean Oliver who evaluates teams on "Four Factors:" Shooting Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebounding and a team's ability to get to the free throw line. So...where do we rank:

Shooting percentage is based on effective FG%, which is essentially shooting percentage but giving more weight to three pointers. Our eFG% is 47.6% or 178th in the league. Our defense is allowing a 43% eFG% which is 86th in the league, meaning we aren't shooting well right now, but our defense is keeping us in games.

Turnovers...I'll be careful here or FSUncensored will blow a fuse. We turn the ball over 24.9% of our offensive possessions or 237th in Div-1 basketball. Our defense causes 18.4% of opponent possessions to result in turnovers. 240th in the league. Wonder why these games are so close? Look to turnovers.

Rebounding...specifically offensive rebounding, one could argue that missing an offensive rebound is essentially a turnover.  Despite the addition of Chris Singleton, we rebound 30% of possible offensive rebounds (216th in the league). Hmmm...see where this is going?

Finally, free throw rate...something we are good at. This is a calculation of the number of free throw attempts per 100 shots taken. Again...this needs to be paired with free throw percentage...if you make it to the line and toss up bricks or lovely swirls like Joakim Noah, who I get to watch on a too often basis as he is a Chicago Bull, and a terrible percentage, who cares if you can get to the line? We get to the line...in fact we rank 14th in the nation against our non-conference play thus far; I expect this to change when we see the likes of Duke, UNC, Maryland, Wake Forest etc... Until the game against Stetson, we were terrible from the line for a Leonard Hamilton Talent Squad. We're now shooting 70% from the stripe which is significantly improved and our opponents have been terrible from the line.

Does this help you understand where our team is so far this year? Unfortunately, we're not shooting the ball well, we don't take advantage up front and miss offensive rebounds and we turn the ball over and inexcusable amount. But, we get to the line. So...we're doing three out of the four factors poorly.

Saturday we take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. What is a Chanticleer you ask? Keep reading to the end of the post to find out. The Chanticleers, out of the Big South Conference, are 0-2 after losing to Coker and Savanna Sate to start the season. This is the first round of the Global Sports Classic Tournament. The Noles will go on to play Western Illinois on 11/24 at home and then head to Las Vegas to play Cincinnati on 11/28 and then either UNLV or California.

The Seminoles have played CC once and defeated them 78-65 in 2006. Al Thornton (who the Chicago Bulls should have drafted) dominated the Chanticleers as FSU controlled the game.

CC will like start the following players: G Mario Sisinni (6'0" 175 Sr), G Logan Johnson (6'6" 195 Sr), F Joseph Harris (6'5" 180 Sr), F Anthony Breeze (6'5"185 So), G Mario Edwards (6'3" 210 Jr). Breeze was selected to the Big South All-Freshman Team and Harris is currently 4th on CC's all time shot block list. Look for CC to continue their defensive presence, which contributed to their success last year in conference play. Some reports say that CC is still looking for their scorer but certainly have a lot of young talent.

Look for the Noles to continue to identify their offensive rhythm, improve on the offensive boards and work on protecting the ball. We will likely get to the line. I think CC will have difficulty with our size up front and lets hope this will be our opportunity to work on the four elements of the game.

A Chanticleer is a rooster.

Go Noles!

Morning Add: Here are the stats Truecubbie explained above.

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :   95.6 (200)           91.3 ( 92)
Adj Efficiency :   92.2 (215)           71.5 ( 24)

Effective FG%  :   47.6 (181)           43.0 ( 77)
Turnover Pct.  :   24.9 (251)           18.4 (246)
Off. Rebound%  :   30.6 (216)           32.8 (152)
Free Throw Rate:   44.8 ( 14)           25.4 ( 42)

3-Point FG%    :   30.0 (225)           27.2 ( 72)
2-Point FG%    :   48.6 (146)           44.6 (121)
Free Throw Pct.:   70.7 (128)           59.2 ( 50)
Block Pct.     :    3.8 ( 42)           21.4 (  9)
Steal Pct.     :   10.3 (193)           12.7 ( 62)

3PA/FGA        :   27.6 (270)           42.0 (308)
A/FGM          :   57.1 (123)           51.4 (133)

We really improved our offensive rebounding against Stetson.  Stetson shot out of their minds as well.

Here is ste scouting report for Coastal Carolina

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :   93.6 (222)           94.5 (130)
Adj Efficiency :  100.8 (142)          104.0 (208)

Effective FG%  :   54.1 ( 63)           42.6 ( 72)
Turnover Pct.  :   31.6 (321)           25.8 ( 65)
Off. Rebound%  :   36.7 (107)           42.1 (305)
Free Throw Rate:   24.5 (164)           50.0 (279)

3-Point FG%    :   33.3 (152)           35.3 (207)
2-Point FG%    :   55.9 ( 42)           37.8 ( 35)
Free Throw Pct.:   54.5 (311)           74.1 (264)
Block Pct.     :    2.9 ( 30)           13.5 ( 56)
Steal Pct.     :   20.1 (334)            8.6 (205)

3PA/FGA        :   30.6 (202)           31.5 (141)
A/FGM          :   66.7 ( 38)           65.0 (295)

We should be able to force tons of turnovers today and grab a lot of offensive rebounds.  

Unfortunately, Coastal Carolina crashes the offensive glass like crazy and grabs tons of turnovers in their own right.

They also send opponents to the line at an insane pace.  

0-2 against that competition is pretty poor.