Wednesday running update and open comment thread
by Bud Elliott on Nov 5, 2008 1:38 PM EST
in FSU Football
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PrintToday is a bit of a hodge podge. I caught some of the film last night, but I haven't been able to break it down yet.
Site Features
Updated the BlogPoll Ballot
I "front-paged" the Option defense post by truecolors.
We still need a basketball writer.
Press conference Audio is available at Seminoles.com.
Your Clempzon blogger is Dr. B from Clempsonfootball. Get excited, this guy knows his stuff and is not your typical, run of the mill blogger. The list of questions we exchanged is in the Clempzon questions section.
Outside Links
A really, really good article by Bob Thomas of the Jacksonville Sun Times on ACCSportsJournal regarding the failures of the once highly touted 2005 recruiting class. Read that article, because I'll refer to it throughout the rest of the recruiting season. I'm also in the process of asking some readers to do some writing about recruiting
Chantrant has a really nice update piece on Debrale Smiley, one of my favorite recruits ever. Rich does a great job of finding these kids... I'm really not sure how he does it. In any case, we need to get this kid in a Seminole Uniform (he's at JuCo).I dug up this video on the stud running back. He is # 40. This guy's youtube account has about 8 videos of the kid. Enjoy.
Thomas County Central 300 Video (via ytsejam180)
More on Smiley? This from user Chris:
As a nole fan and Thomas County Central fan (Debrale's HS), I got to watch this kid play a lot the last couple of years. He is truly a phenomenal back and the best HS RB I've ever seen. He broke a bunch of records at Thomas County including TDs and Rushing yards that were set by Joe Burns, who went to GT and then on to the NFL. He also set these records while not even playing in the second half of a lot of his teams games because they were blowouts. At 6-0 240 and faster than opposing teams CBs it really was not fair. The link I have is of a few of their games and only 5 plays of Debrale(#40), but the first play of the video is simply amazing. I hope he gets his grades up and comes to FSU. He really is a good kid, but the schools systems down here are pretty bad.
We wish Debrale luck. i want to see him in Garnet & Gold.
Scalpem get's their Q&A on with one of the premier Clemson blogs, Block-C. Good read guys.
Noleinsider interviews Dabo Swinney. It's a lot of Bowden stuff, but this was interesting:
Q: What is the primary reason for Cullen Harper's three interceptions against Boston College?
A: "Bad decisions. The first one, he just didn't go through his progression. The second, Tyler [Grisham] was a little tight on his alignment, and he was late on the throw. That one cost us. The first one didn't hurt us. The last one was play-action. I was probably more disappointed in that one. We've got to get [Harper] to check down. It's like I told him ... just drive the car, do what you're coached to do, and we'll be just fine. Those were three critical mistakes, but he made some big, big plays for us, too. He showed a lot of poise.''
Dinnich, with her ACC Previews
Clemson (4-4, 2-3) at Florida State (6-2, 3-2)
Both of these teams need to win all of their remaining ACC games in order to stay in the race. FSU is also still playing for bowl eligibility. Bowden will turn 79 on Saturday, and he is 3-1 on his birthday, with the lone loss coming in 2003 to his son, Tommy. Well, we all know that won't happen this year, as it's the first time in a decade Bowden won't face his son in this matchup. Florida State is trying to regroup after its heartbreaking, last-minute loss at Georgia Tech. The matchup to watch in this game is FSU offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher against Clemson defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, two veterans who have coached against each other before at other schools.
Rantings, Rankings, and Ravings
| Source | National Ranking | ACC Ranking | SOS Ranking | ||
| Fremeau Efficiency Index | 10 | 3 | 27 | 37th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency |
35th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency |
| This week's rankings. (with full explanations) & the methodology behind the calculations. | These interesting strength of schedule rankings are explained. |
||||
| Phil Steele | 4 way tie for 24th. |
Opponent adjusted pass efficiency defense. One of the most important defensive statistical measures. |
|||
| Dinnich, ESPN.com ACC Blogger | 2 | ||||
| ACC SEC Blog | Teir 1 | ||||
| Sagarin | 24 | 93 | 35th in Predictor Ratings (Power Poll Ranking) | ||
| Acc Football Report | 17 | 3 | |||
| AP Poll | 24 | 4 | |||
| Coaches Poll | 24 | 4 | |||
| Stewart Mandel (SI.com) | 17 | 2 | |||
| CBS Sports Blogpoll | 24 | 4 | |||
| CBS Sports 120 | 23 | 4 | |||
| Harriss Poll | 24 | 4 | |||
| BCS | 22 | 3 | |||
| College Football News | 22 | 4 | |||
| Dr. Saturday | NR | ||||
| Avowed Resume ranker, formerly known as Sunday Morning Quarterback (SMQ). | |||||
Interesting stuff here folks. Most of the mainstream media that employ a "power poll sprinkled with fairness" put us in the low 20's.
The FEI is giving us some love now, and that's encouraging. One interesting note: we have the 5th most difficult remaining schedule by their calculations.
Basketball Note
Begin to familiarize yourself with BasketballProspectus.com, as I will use their stuff extensively this year.
Ever heard of "tempo-free statistics"? They isolate what you do well, regardless of how fast you play the game by looking at performance on a per possession basis.
A convenient glossary of terms can be found here., and the ratings are here.
Record vs. D-1: 19-14
Luck: -0.046 National Rank=260 (-1.5 wins)
Raw Tempo: 68.1 poss/40 min National Rank=129
Adj Tempo: 66.6 poss/40 min National Rank=170
Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 103.9 (139) 98.8 ( 91)
Adj Efficiency : 109.1 ( 80) 92.5 ( 43)
Effective FG% : 50.4 (144) 49.3 (144)
Turnover Pct. : 21.8 (228) 22.6 ( 74)
Off. Rebound% : 33.4 (147) 34.1 (227)
Free Throw Rate: 27.8 ( 76) 34.6 (133)
3-Point FG% : 35.2 (158) 34.6 (140)
2-Point FG% : 49.2 (134) 48.0 (141)
Free Throw Pct.: 77.3 ( 5) 69.3 (172)
Block Pct. : 9.0 (159) 10.4 ( 88)
Steal Pct. : 8.7 ( 64) 12.3 ( 31)
3PA/FGA : 34.9 (156) 34.7 (185)
A/FGM : 44.4 (325) 52.6 (105)
The glaring weaknesses?
- Turning the ball over (228th in turnover per possession!)
- Allowing offensive rebounds an offensive rebound on 34% of shots!, and
- Not passing well (325th in assists per field goal). This is a flaw in Hamilton's coaching ability. He can't teach it well and hasn't recruited the point position well either. Disturbingly, our assists per field goal have gone down in EACH of the last 4 years: 255th (2005), 265th (2006), 321st (2007), and 325th (2008). That's horrific.
What we did well:
- Forcing turnovers on defense (74th);
- Scoring points via the free throw (though we need to get a lot more attempts)
If you have anything to add, throw it in the comment section and I will post it up.
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Comments
Oh, we also didn’t gaurd the 3 well. I think this is due in large part to us never having much in the middle since AJ left forcing our gaurds to pack it in. I would expect our 3 point defense to go up in percentage, if not ranking, due to movement of the line. Hopefully we can extend the defense more with Reid (assuming he can stay on the court) and Alabi (assuming he can stay on the court) down low.
We didn’t defend the 3 well, but we didn’t defend ANY shot all that well.
DEFENSE
3-Point FG% : 34.6 (140)
2-Point FG% : 48.0 (141)
Overall: 49.3 (144)
Now, can we go to the tournament with an effective field goal % defense ranked 144th? Yes, yes we can. Why? We take the ball away very often.
Heck, we had the 43rd best defense in America (adjusted for efficiency).
Your point is valid, though. Having small guys play in their appropriate spots will be a boon for this team. Expect the steals do decline a bit, but for the rebounding to get somewhat better.
05 recruiting class
This class didn’t live up to the hype but thats due to a combination of reasons… Antone never had the spectacular year that was expected of him but a large part of that may be because of our deficiencies on the offensive line as well as his injury problems (I think Antone has been way more banged up than most people know)… Fred Rouse was a head case before he got here and apparently our coaches were warned about him by the Lincoln coaches, but I can’t say I really blame the coaches here cause there were many other big time programs that were also trying to get him so it really isn’t their fault that he decided to sign with us… However the coaches can be blamed for the Callahan Bright situation, they had to be aware of his academic situation but I do think it is a good idea to sign him and hope he qualifies and if he doesn’t you can place him (which we did and at some point you think he might get his stuff together but it just never happened) the bigger problem in regards to Bright was the backup plan that still hurts our depth at DT, Guion is now in the NFL and Kendrick Stewart has been ok… theres been some other disappointments as well such as Matt Hardrick and Michael Ray Garbage, but as the article indicates there have also been some solid contributors… I think many teams would have loved to had the same class that we did that year but we caught some bad luck (Russell Ball) and had some bad coaches on staff at the time
I did have a problem with 1 specific line in the article… “the arrival of new Florida coach Urban Meyer, whose initial signing class would become the backbone of a national championship team”… the backbone of that national championship team was the defense which was largely in place the year before, guys like Reggie Nelson, Brandon Siler, and Derrick Harvey… Other than Tebow and Harvin, most of the players from Meyer’s first recruiting class did not see any significant snaps during the season
When you just put one of those examples (Rouse, Bright, Ball, etc) out there it isn’t so bad, but when you put them together it’s symptomatic of coaching staff not doing enough research, or at least not paying enough attention to their research. You can take a risk with one or two recruits in any given year or be wrong about a couple of recruits no matter how much you research them, but the previous coaching staff (speaking of offense of course) did not really take character into account when recruiting.
Even some of the players that stayed did not seem to have the type of attitude needed to succeed at the level FSU fans expect. Also, we didn’t seem to have a fit (i.e. Jimbo prefers bigger players so we go after tall WRs, more physical backs, and QBs that can run; Trickett prefers smaller more athletic linemen). I feel much more confident with the current coaching staff and their ability to balance all the factors to correctly evaluate a potential recruit.
Some say this is taking the easy way out,
but I would much prefer to take pieces that fit my plan than a bunch of pieces some website deems to be excellent.
I wrote this for the Clemson guy:
While the star rankings don’t show it, Clemson recruited better than FSU from 2005-2006, and possibly 2004 as well. Why? The previous staff was lazy and didn’t do their job in evaluating players. Because of this, Clemson has a lot more Veteran talent, specifically on offense. I think FSU did a better job last year, and the Noles really have this thing rolling, as they are ACTUALLY WATCHING FILM and evaluating players themselves, not relying on the website rankings.
This team does seem to have a much better attitude than teams of the past. I hate to make subjective calls like that, but it just seems that the coaching staff holds these guys to a higher standard.
By the way, you’ve got mail.
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