27.6% turnover rate.  Against Georgia State.  Nobody open to get passes.

True, we're 8-1. We have defeated teams from the Pac-10, Big East and the SEC. We're in the Pomeroy top 100 and we've seen improvement each week...so we've been doing good so far.

Tonight we take on the Georgia State Panthers in Atlanta. Come on in for the pre-game thoughts...

The Noles have done well so far this year and have some great pre-ACC wins, which may help when tournament time comes around at the end of the year.

For those who have been able to watch the last few games, there has certainly been a lot of promise and some areas for concern. We are a young, athletic team that is working on developing its offensive identity. Defensively...we're rock solid...top 40 to be exact...and we'll only get better.

During our last game thread there as a lot of discussion about the play of Alabi. Corey Clark at the Tallahassee Democrat put together a nice piece on Alabi and I would highly recommend checking it out. It discusses a lot of concerns but I think it really highlights his potential. He is huge and will only continue to improve his game as his confidence develops. I think the UF game was his coming out party and I look forward to increasing his use in the offense. He is a key point of our defense as he completely clogs the lane and he typically doesn't get into foul trouble early. (There have been exceptions.) He's also averaging 20 minutes per game, which is excellent for a big man of his size. This will continue to improve as his conditioning improves after his injury. And I love that his free throw percentage is in the high 70's. Anyone on this team can shoot free throws but it is nice to see our big man being successful from the line. 

Here are the stats that many of you are getting used to reading:

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :   97.8 (208)           91.8 ( 64)
Adj Efficiency :   99.3 (175)           87.9 ( 37)

Effective FG%  :   47.7 (203)           43.8 ( 44)
Turnover Pct.  :   24.4 (291)           21.8 (145)
Off. Rebound%  :   34.1 (153)           32.8 (156)
Free Throw Rate:   40.3 (  4)           35.9 (165)

3-Point FG%    :   33.8 (166)           30.8 ( 80)
2-Point FG%    :   46.2 (207)           42.4 ( 48)
Free Throw Pct.:   73.8 ( 52)           66.8 (135)
Block Pct.     :    6.0 ( 53)           16.9 ( 13)
Steal Pct.     :    9.8 (176)           11.9 ( 68)

3PA/FGA        :   33.1 (167)           38.7 (308)
A/FGM          :   52.1 (210)           51.0 (111)

Green is good. Red is bad. I won't touch on the turnovers...they have to get better and they will, especially as this team matures and our offense blossoms. That is also why our efficiency and tempo are poor. With out a truly defined offense we have a lot of standing around, slowing down our pace. Plus, more teams are starting to press us now and we have a tendency to get the ball up the court slowly. I would like to see us push the ball and get into our offense before the defense gets set. Despite playing some big name teams, we have continued to get to the line and we make teams pay. It doesn't matter who gets up there, we are going to get points.

Our defense has been excellent and anyone who has seen this team on tv understands. Hamilton likes his guys to be aggressive, pressuring the ball on the perimeter. Look our opponents shooting percentage...not great. We get our hands up and challenge shots regularly. It helps that we have generally been significantly bigger than our opponents this year. Our front court is huge for college basketball. Alabi, Singleton and Reid are some big boys up front. However, I do find it odd that our rebounding percentage, offensive and defensive are not great. We don't get in great position, particularly on offense to rebound. This will develop as the movement develops. Too often have I seen our guards standing close to half court swinging the ball back and forth as our forwards trot along the baseline. We have the speed and size to get inside and we need to more often. We did well against UF when we started to drive the lane and get them out of the match up zone. We did particularly well against man defense.

Tonight we take on the Georgia State University Panthers. They are 3-5 this year and play in the Colonial Athletic Association. Here's their info:

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency :   96.3 (232)           98.0 (144)
Adj Efficiency :   93.4 (249)           97.0 (124)

Effective FG%  :   47.4 (210)           49.1 (180)
Turnover Pct.  :   22.0 (208)           21.5 (162)
Off. Rebound%  :   36.3 ( 90)           29.2 ( 62)
Free Throw Rate:   21.5 (233)           38.8 (220)

3-Point FG%    :   30.4 (265)           37.2 (269)
2-Point FG%    :   48.4 (139)           45.4 (107)
Free Throw Pct.:   65.7 (225)           63.7 ( 65)
Block Pct.     :    5.5 ( 41)            9.7 (135)
Steal Pct.     :   10.8 (230)           11.0 (109)

3PA/FGA        :   33.8 (151)           35.3 (241)
A/FGM          :   56.4 (123)           66.2 (334)

Lots of red on offense. Look for Toney Douglas to have a huge game defensively. We'll have to see how his hand has healed since the Florida game...he had a large cut requiring stitches on his shooting hand, contributing to his poor offensive evening.

Here is their starting line up:

F #1 Trey Hampton 6'7 225 Jr 4.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg
F #23 Xavier Hansbro 6'10 230 Jr 6.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg
F #24 Ousman Krubally 6'6 195 Jr 2.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg
G #2 Joe Dukes 6'1 175 Jr 15.5 ppg, 5.5 apg
G #11 Trae Goldston 6'0 175 Jr 12.8 ppg, 1.6 apg

Clearly their guards are their source of points. Krubally typically doesn't play that many minutes. They are clearly an experience team starting 5 Juniors. They only have 1 freshman who contributes, James Fields, a guard who plays about 13 minutes per game. While they are quite tall in the front court, they are not huge. Our guys are, overall, bigger. They average about 14 turnovers per game. Here is the game log for GSU this year:

The thing that stands out to me is variability. There is little consistency or pattern that I initially notice here. I would argue that their competition has not be any where our degree of difficulty.

Look for the Noles to control the tempo of this game from the start and play outstanding defense. They are coming off a nice break after finals this week. They needed the time off as Hamilton's squad has been on the road a lot so far this year. It will only help when it gets to tournament time that we have demonstrated our ability to win big games on the road. Look for improvement in this game, but watch out. GSU is an experienced team and with their variability...you never know what team will show up. We cannot, I repeat cannot over look the teams we play between now and Pitt. A loss to one of these teams would hurt.

Check out our previous posts about the addition of Derwin Kitchen. He should be a great addition to our back court and help with our turnover struggles. Enjoy the game. It will be locally televised on CSS TV.

I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Specifically, what do you think the Noles need to do to improve their rebounding? What role will Alabi play on this team? What does our record need to be going into ACC play to have a chance at the Big Dance?

Go Noles!