Noles by the Numbers, and other rumors

Happy Birthday Zebrie Sanders!  One of our baby linemen turns 19 today!

In this edition of Noles by the Numbers, I'll look back at the season that was, talk a little basketball, check out some trends, discuss bowl possibilities, name drop about a possible DC rumor, and link a few Nole items.  Blogpoll too (I messed it up this week)  The recruiting thread will be pushed back until Thursday, so don't freak out, recruitniks.  Will Robert Marve transfer?

Hearing Robert Marve might transfer to USF or LSU.  If it happens, it hurts Miami's QB depth.

I'm sorry to be talking a lot of Clemson in the past few days, but they are really trying to be the mover and the shaker in the ACC.  My Clemson buddy (the same one who guaranteed the Gator Bowl to the Tigers, yesterday, way before any other site had the information), says that Clemson is strongly considering Alabama "DC" Kevin Steele for their DC position.  This would be very bad for FSU.  Steele is a guy with FSU ties, a guy we can afford to get, an excellent coach, and someone who we do not need Clemson to get.  

 

Blogpoll (I apologize for leaving Missouri out-- that was unintentional, promise!)

Rank Team STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
1 Florida 51
2 Oklahoma 38
3 Texas 43
4 Alabama 68
5 Southern Cal 79
6 Texas Tech 41
7 Penn State 66
8 Ohio State 36
9 Georgia Tech 12
10 Mississippi 22
11 Cincinnati 32
12 Boston College 4
13 Georgia 13
14 Iowa 51
15 Oklahoma State 26
16 Oregon 61
17 Virginia Tech 5
18 North Carolina 14
19 Michigan State 37
20 Pittsburgh 44
21 Oregon State 28
22 Utah 110
23 California 62
24 Wake Forest 19
25 Florida State 2

I was running really short on time this week and it appears that I forgot to include Missouri.  Oh well.  I'd put them somewhere between 18 and 25 if I had a do-over.  

 

his is not a power poll.  I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are.  I only rank teams based on their resume.  The poll is designed to be dynamic.  I try to start from scratch every week.  I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances.  I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams.  As always, I want your help.  Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y."  I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change."  Power poll rankings are dumb.

The teams ranked 11, 13, and 17 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend.  Several others had scares  How are those power polls working for them?  I do not consult major polls when doing this.  Their record of futility is clear.  Let the teams earn their rankings on the field.  I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible.  The AP Poll and it's counterparts are silly.  Ranking teams based on who you think is good is not going to work.  We don't know how great teams truly are until they play the games on the field.  I rank what happens on the field.  This system is not perfect.  I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.

 

Reward Grinders.  I like to reward those who play difficult schedules.  Those mid-majors do not have to prepare for difficult games on a weekly basis, and I take that into account.   After finally getting a chance to watch these guys, I realized that they are not at the level of ranked teams from major conferences.  Additionally, their schedule strengths were incredibly inflated because they had all played each other, who were also ranked highly.  These teams are not talented.  They are able to focus on their 1 game of the year against a big-6 conference team for several weeks.  The BCS team views them as a schedule break.  Letdown city.  I am really against power-polling, but none of these teams deserve to play in a BCS game and I am no longer rewarding teams in any way for simply not losing to the likes of Eastern Illinois and Nevada.  Utah is in, but barely.  I have no doubt that they would have at least 4 losses in any BCS conference (except the Big East).  

 

 

ACC/ BIG10 CHALLENGE

The ACC is now 3-3 in the ACC/ Big10 challenge.  Miami's star PG Jack McClintock was ejected early in their loss to Ohio State for being a member of a Miami based drug ring taking a swipe at the opposing defenser.

So far, here is what Ken Pomeroy has for the ACC (View this in wide-screen mode):

Overall  Conf
W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk SOS/Rnk NCSOS/Rnk

North Carolina 7-0 0-0 .9909/2 125.7/3 83.6/21 .6210/111 .6210/112
Duke 8-0 0-0 .9884/4 116.5/24 79.2/6 .6238/107 .6238/108
Clemson 8-0 0-0 .9682/16 119.1/16 88.5/45 .5008/182 .5008/184
Miami FL 4-2 0-0 .9541/26 115.8/26 88.9/49 .7730/47 .7730/51
Maryland 4-2 0-0 .9468/31 105.7/86 82.3/15 .8387/25 .8387/27
Wake Forest 6-0 0-0 .9255/40 104.5/105 84.0/22 .2063/316 .2063/316
Boston College 5-2 0-0 .9053/48 114.2/35 93.9/91 .6569/93 .6569/95
Georgia Tech 4-0 0-0 .8834/59 103.4/116 86.7/31 .1621/332 .1621/332
Virginia Tech 4-3 0-0 .8138/78 109.4/59 96.2/121 .5818/142 .5818/144
Florida St. 7-0 0-0 .7294/102 97.9/198 89.8/55 .4380/213 .4380/213
North Carolina St. 4-0 0-0 .6564/121 107.1/74 101.2/192 .0511/344 .0511/344
Virginia 3-3 0-0 .6091/129 106.8/80 102.7/216 .6119/119 .6119/120

The best conference in America.  In football AND baskteball.  Get some.

There are several big games tonight, including UNC- Michigan State, and Florida State- Northwestern.  Tomahawk Nation writer TrueCubbie will be at the game!  I'll have the preview up for this showdown after a bit, but, the game is on ESPN2! (For real this time).

 

ACC Only Numbers

I always find it interesting how teams are ranked against their conference foes while including out of conference games!  I went through and took care of all that noise.  The following numbers are calculated solely from each team's 8 ACC games.

 


Total Rushing
Passing
Punting

YPP PPP Net YPC Yds Y/A No
GTECH 5.88 0.33 264 5.3 101 8.1 4
NC STATE *
5.47 0.37 150 4.2 201 7.1 4
MIAMI *
5.35 0.43 124 4.0 221 6.6 5
FSU 5.12 0.39 168 4.5 175 6.0 3
UNC 5.05 0.37 114 3.2 193 7.9 5
CLEMSON 4.96 0.33 103 3.3 217 6.9 6
MARYLAND 4.92 0.25 103 3.4 218 6.3 5
UVA 4.69 0.25 100 3.5 208 5.7 5
VTECH 4.5 0.26 164 3.8 133 5.9 5
BC 4.44 0.29 120 3.3 196 5.6 5
DUKE 4.19 0.26 96 3.0 174 5.4 7
WAKE FOREST 4.15 0.21 113 2.8 167 6.1 6

Hmm, the Noles were 4th in Yards per play, and 2nd best in points per play.  2nd in yards per carry, and 7th in yards per pass.  The Noles punted less than anybody. 

Miami's performance is surprising, but remember that they put up rather big performances against teams in garbage time, racking up 420 yards against Duke, and a combined 780 in garbage time in losing to GTech and NC State. 

Let's turn to our friend, Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (a component of FEI, as we discussed Monday)

 

Oklahoma 0.626 1
Texas Tech 0.543 2
Florida 0.455 6
Pittsburgh 0.378 11
Georgia Tech 0.364 13
Nebraska 0.252 21
Florida State 0.247 22
North Carolina State 0.244 23
Northwestern 0.241 24
Boston College 0.206 28
Ohio State 0.187 29
North Carolina 0.179 32
Kansas 0.134 35
Miami 0.134 36
Maryland 0.133 37
Iowa 0.133 38
South Florida 0.116 41
Clemson 0.114 42
LSU 0.054 56
Virginia Tech 0.04 57
Virginia 0.034 58
Wisconsin 0.029 59
Notre Dame -0.078 72
Wake Forest -0.089 73
Michigan -0.101 76
South Carolina -0.117 77
Temple -0.163 86
Duke -0.178 87
Auburn -0.279 101
Central Florida -0.55 119
San Jose State -0.563 120

As you recall, this system only counts competitive possessions; not those where the team is racking up yards in garbage time.  This is the measure I trust the most, and it places FSU 2nd amongst ACC teams and 22nd Nationally, behind GTech, clearly the ACC's best team, regardless of Win-Loss record.

NC State clearly got their offense on track as the year wore on, and I don't feel quite so bad about our performance against them (they had over 7 yards per play against us... we just held the ball forever so they couldn't do much with it).  NC State might be a team to watch next year.

Wake Forest, on the other hand, is clearly losing its offense.  Jim Grobe won't (and should not) catch heat, but over the last 3 years their offense is showing a bad trend: 65th AOE in '06, 83rd AOE in '07, & 73rd this year, with by far the worst in-conference numbers.  They are bouyoed by their wins against Baylor (came on strong later in the year) and Ole Miss (ditto).  Dead last in yards and points per play.  They lost everything on defense, and will have to rely on their offense in 2009.  This is a 2009 game that I am NOT worried about.

Let me float this out there right now:  If we go 5-3 in the ACC and 8-4 overall next year, I will be pretty happy (depending, of course, on who leaves and who stays)

 

Player Departures

Yesterday, I was privy to some academic stuff regarding several players.  Let's just say that I am 99% sure Corey Surrency will not be back.  

In an unrelated note, I'm hearing that Spetman and Kelly Elliott are doing a good job bringing our programs up to code.  That is encouraging.  

With Patrick Robinson not having any knee damage, I expect him to go to the combine and test out really well.  This looks like it will be a good, but not great year for cornerbacks in the draft.  I currently project Robinson to be a late 2nd or early 3rd round draft choice, assuming he runs a 40 yard dash of 4.35 or less.  Remember tht Robinson was involved in Music Appreciatorgate, and grades could factor into his decision.  

As I reported months ago, Everette Brown has earned his degree.  I see no reason for the best college pass rusher to return for his senior season and any speculation that he will do so is probably foolish.

 

Bowl News

TomahawkNation member and frequent commenter TrueBlueApocalypse reports that 

I called a buddy of mine who works for the Gator Bowl committee, in no uncertain terms, here's why they picked Clemson
1. The drubbing we took from UF really turned them off
2. This would have been the 3rd time in under 15 months the Noles would have played in Jax
3. The city stepped in and basicly said invite Clemson. The reasoning? Clemson vs Nebraska will be a mini-Florida/Georgia for them revenue wise, where as FSU fans would have driven in either New Years ever or that morning and left.

Also, they're still feeling the sting from last year's debacle between Texas Tech and Virginia
Where judging by the attendance you would have thought the game was being played before Christmas and not on New Years Day.

It looks like we will play in the Champs Sports bown, December 27th, in Orlando.  

 

 

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