Blogpollin', speculatin' on the FSU coaching staff, and previewing the Wisconsin Badgers
by Bud Elliott on Dec 8, 2008 3:59 PM EST
in FSU Football
156 comments
Inside...
- 4PM Update: Fsued wrote a really interesting take on our program from the upper-management perspective. See the bottom of the comments section.
- My preliminary CBS Sports Blogpoll Ballot (need your input, as always)
- My thoughts on our playing in the Champs Sports Bowl against Wisconsin
- My thoughts on the Jimbo Fisher saga (including a new news report)
- My thoughts on the possibility of ECU DC Greg Hudson coming to FSU
Other Links
- A lot of good stuff in yesterday's update (including: take a test that one of our coaches is rumored not to be able to pass-- a few of our readers have passed)
- We beat Florida in basketball (TrueCubbie's Thoughts)! 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5!
- About the anticipated sanctions from the NCAA, Wetherell said: "I don't see anything more than (additional) scholarships taken away and maybe vacate a game or two." I expect us to do very well in the appeals process, but we will take a ton of heat publicly. Hopefully we think about the future and ask for fewer scholarship reductions rather than try to preserve wins for Bowden. If you think we should argue for Bowden to keep the wins rather than have get some scholarships back... be my guest.
- ACC Football Report has some ideas for the ACC Championship game.
CBS Sports Blogpoll Ballot (draft)
 |
||
| Rank | Team | Strength of Schedule |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma | 29 |
| 2 | Florida | 38 |
| 3 | Texas | 48 |
| 4 | Alabama | 23 |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 74 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 47 |
| 7 | Penn State | 66 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 36 |
| 9 | Georgia Tech | 12 |
| 10 | Virginia Tech | 5 |
| 11 | Cincinnati | 32 |
| 12 | Mississippi | 22 |
| 13 | Boston College | 4 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 6 |
| 15 | Georgia | 13 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 44 |
| 17 | Florida State | 2 |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 26 |
| 19 | Iowa | 51 |
| 20 | Michigan State | 37 |
| 21 | Oregon | 61 |
| 22 | California | 62 |
| 23 | Utah | 110 |
| 24 | Boise State | 116 |
| 25 | Missouri | 43 |
This is not a power poll. I don't attempt to rank teams based on how good I think they are. I only rank teams based on their resume. The poll is designed to be dynamic. I try to start from scratch every week. I do attempt to reward teams for "quality losses", while punishing them for bad performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams. As always, I want your help. Keep in mind though that I don't want "team X is way better than team Y." I do want "team A has a better resume than team B, you should make the change." Power poll rankings are dumb.
The teams ranked 1, 12, and 17 all lost to lesser ranked or unranked foes this past weekend. Several others had scares How are those power polls working for them? I do not consult major polls when doing this. Their record of futility is clear. Let the teams earn their rankings on the field. I try to remove as much subjectivity as possible. The AP Poll and it's counterparts are silly. Ranking teams based on who you think is good is not going to work. We don't know how great teams truly are until they play the games on the field. I rank what happens on the field. This system is not perfect. I like to reward playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punish losing to poor teams more harshly than I reward defeating poor teams.
Reward Grinders. I like to reward those who play difficult schedules. Those mid-majors do not have to prepare for difficult games on a weekly basis, and I take that into account. After finally getting a chance to watch these guys, I realized that they are not at the level of ranked teams from major conferences. Additionally, their schedule strengths were incredibly inflated because they had all played each other, who were also ranked highly. These teams are not talented. They are able to focus on their 1 game of the year against a big-6 conference team for several weeks. The BCS team views them as a schedule break. Letdown city. I am really against power-polling, but none of these teams deserve to play in a BCS game and I am no longer rewarding teams in any way for simply not losing to the likes of Eastern Illinois and Nevada. Utah and Boise State are in, but barely. I have no doubt that they would have at least 4 losses in any BCS conference (except the Big East).
Changes for Wednesday:
I'm really not sure I wan to rank Michigan State. They really just beat up on some bad teams and played really poorly against the decent guys on their schedule.
I also meant to put Missouri over Oregon, Cal, and Michigan State, so I will make that change.
I could honestly throw Wake Forest (schedule strength 16th, 7-5 record, including OOC wins against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Baylor), or Miami (played Florida extremely well, crushed a Big12 team on the road, toughest schedule in the nation, 7-5 record).
Champs Sports Bowl v. Wisconsin
Dec 27, 4:30PM Eastern, ESPN I like this matchup.
Overall Efficiency: 44th (FSU is 10th, boosted by the 2nd toughest schedule in America).
Adjusted Offensive Effieincy: 59th (FSU is 22nd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 36th (FSU is 22nd)
Wisconsin is 3-5 against BCS conference teams, and 0-4 against teams in the top 40.
Wins: Illinois, Minnesota, @ Indiana, @ Fresno State, Marshall, Akron, Cal-Poly.
Losses: @ Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, @ Iowa, @ Michigan State
Teams to rush for 180+ yards against Wisconsin: Cal Poly (276), Iowa (234), Ohio State (183).
Wisconsin has a run rating of 113.7 (FSU is 123.7)
Wisconsin has a pass rating of 89.5 (FSU is 102.7)
Wisconsin's run D is 94.8 (FSU is 95.6)
Wisconsin's Pass D is 109.1 (FSU is 117.1)
So... both teams will sell out like crazy in an effort to stop the run, because neither team defenses the run all that well but both (especially FSU) have good passing defenses.
Florida State is better on both sides of the ball and is basically a much better version of Wisconsin (run focused offense, good passing defense), though the Noles get it done in a different way (speed, zone running).
FSU has played 8 teams with better offenses than Wisconsin (2 D2 teams are not, Wake does not, and Colorado does not.). Of the 8, all but VT are MUCH better than Wisconsin. Another measure says it is 6 and not 8.
FSU has played 6 teams with a better defense than Wisconsin.
My early guess for this game is FSU 33, Wisconsin 20.
Rumors of FSU Coaching Moves
Here's the latest on the rumors (these are only rumors, not facts, I am not claiming they are true, but I do believe them):
- Jimbo is taking the reigns and wants to hit the ground running when this team officially becomes his. I believe that he has now been given full control as...
- Bowden finally gave up all control and is simply a passenger and fundraiser at this point. If true, you can bet his stock will drop for not sticking up for his coaches and trying for the record. He'll be here for 2009, maybe 2010. I'll continue to point out how we will not seriously contend for anything other than the Atlantic division with a huge hole at the head coaching position. Leadership: it matters.
- Mickey Andrews will retire. I love Mickey Andrews and he is a really classy individual. The spread offense is a direct result of his defense, and I plan to write a fitting tribute to my favorite FSU coach ever. That said, it is time.
- Jody Allen (who never played defensive end), and Chuck "The Clown" Amato are dismissed, and nobody who is a fan of winning will miss them.
- Dexter Carter will also be released. I profiled this here yesterday.
In total, that looks like 4 coaches will not be back in 2009.
I want to get a stud recruiter to replace Carter. RB coach's do not usually matter, and the good ones are in the NFL, not college. Most colleges use the RB coach slot as a position to stash their amazing recruiter.
Finally, Kirk Bohls of the Austin American Statesman reports:
Keep an eye on Jimbo Fisher. The Florida State head coach-designate could be lured to Auburn because after two years he's tired of waiting for Bobby Bowden to step down. The guess is Bowden will retire so the school doesn't lose Fisher.
I think Bohls is reaching here, but anything that puts pressure on FSU's admin and quickens our move back towards the serious pursuit of winning games and not individual coaching accolades or building statues if a good thing.
Greg Hudson
Will not be coming to FSU as it looks like Skip Holtz will take the Syracuse job. All I can say is good. I watched his defense play well against a very good Tulsa offense, and all I can think was "this won't work consistently against very good and elite competition).
Why not? He basically sat back in a cover-2 for most of the game and took advantage of Tulsa's QBs lack of arm strength. This is nice in high school and against guys without much talent, and we've seen it work against Drew Weatherford, but I wasn't impressed with his creativity. He seems more like a motivator; a true rah-rah guy. Credit Hudson for getting good results on Saturday, but I am a process over results guy, because I am concerned with long term success. I'm not impressed with his process.
I do not want a motivator. I want a thinker. I want a teacher. I want someone who is pondering the issues presented by the modern offense. I want the closest thing we can get to Nick Saban. We need to continue to bring in great athletes, develop them, coach them well on technique, be great at simplifying difficult concepts, improve our defensive scouting, and put them in position to make the play... just to be in the game with UF. It took Saban 2 years. I expect it to take us 2 years as well. We need to scrap next year on defense, go with the youth as UF did in '07, and ride the back of what should be a top 10 offense (#22 this year).
Later this week
Expect the 2nd candidate in the defensive coordinator series to come Tuesday or Wednesday.
Expect a feature about why we are doing the right thing in going with the smaller linemen.
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Are you suggesting possibility of penalty/bonus to Fisher following '09 now, or will there be a new arrangement?
This payment would be completely unacceptable. Restructured contract now would be appropriate (as you’ve discussed), though I assume I’d be crazy to anticipate that, correct?
You’ve gotta think they are going to at least look at Kevin Steele at the request of Mickey and Bobby. In the end I don’t think Jimbo would choose someone he didn’t already have a personal relationship with though.
Kevin Steele is at or near the top of my list. He could be another Mickey... meaning
That if he takes another DC job, he’ll probably be 52-53 when he quits it, and with many colleges looking for the young guy now, they might shy away from Steele as he looks older (balding, etc). If we could get KSteele until 2020 (Steele would be 62 in 2020), I’d probably name a section of the site after him.
If we could get Kevin Steele I'd name my firstborn after him.
He’s exactly what we need as far as gameplanner, tireless worker, and ambassador. The fact that he is one of the best recruiters in America is just icing on the cake.
I haven’t done my due diligence in the research department on this, but right now my dream staff would look like this:
DC/LB- Steele
DT- Haggins
DB- Colzie? (Complete shot in the dark here. He worked with Steele while he was a Grad Assistant here. If Randy Shannon wanted him as DB coach, I’d assume he’s pretty good.)
DE- No clue yet.
Assuming a different position coach is given the special teams' responsibilities.
Man… we’ve been operating with 1 fewer coach for so long, I don’t even know what’s going to happen when Coach Bowden retires.
Will we have a designated punting coach?
A coin flip coach?
Do we go crazy and have a hot dog eating coach?
The possibilities are endless.
We could have used one of them for BB's entire tenure
That wasn’t a problem unique to JB. I remember us butchering our clock management in the second Orange Bowl game vs. Oklahoma in 1981 (1980 season). They scored with over a minute left — our 2 minute offense was laughable.
Oh yes
JC Watts led OU to a TD and then a successful two-pointer to make it 18-17. We actually had a decent kick return, if I recall. With the old clock rules, 1:30 was an ETERNITY in college football. Probably like about 2:45.
We only got to run a few plays, though, and eventually Bill Capece tried a 65 or 67-yard FG that was just short.
Hmm. Maybe I was too young to think about stuff like this during our early 90's games.
That was a good OU team w/ JC Watts.
Well, the point is...
… when it comes to Jeff and clock management, the apple didn’t fall far from the tree.
My Dad has never been as rabid and FSU fan as me, and that’s still the one thing about Bowden that has always driven him bonkers — blew all his timeouts early and atrocious clock management, ever since he came to FSU>
I want to be the "Go for it" Coach
4th and 5 or less anywhere beyond our own 40 yard line…
GO FOR IT!
Seriously, this may be a bit selfish on my part in account of the statistics and graduate school and all...
but this is college football. Sports in academia. If we can waste a coach, why not have a coach in charge of reading these types of things?
Just one guy who studies the literature and knows what the logical thing to do in certain circumstances. Put him in charge of scouting game tape and call him the Research Coach or something.
I will do an e-mail campaign over summer. We'll flood Fisher with thousands of e-mails. He'll pass it off to a grad assistant who will read and understand only some of it
then present it to Fish in a coachspeak slanted manner, and it will be ignored.
Make football scholarly and suddenly the faculty and the athletic department will love each other.
Think of all the theses that could be written in sports management using Florida State as a case study. Then finish every sentence with “it is what it is” and you’ve got yourself a revolution. Maybe even get some research grants from rich NFL owners.
This could change the way research universities look at athletic programs.
Or it could just be a fun job that I really want to do and get paid for.
All I’m saying is that the Oakland Athletics hired Paul DePodesta to do basically the same thing and it made them famous.
i'll give him a call and ask...
kidding, although i should have brought this up when i met him that friday night before the florida game
Dawsey and Haggins have turned out well. You just need to be smart about who you hire. I think Jimbo will do a better job of coaching evaluation than Bobby has done in the past few years.
Right. With former players...
you must make sure that:
1. They can coach, not just talk about what they did when they played.
2. They’ve had other coaching experience elsewhere, or have put in their time as a grad assistant for 2-3 years (to avoid the ire of other coaches who did pay their dues).
have Haggins coach both DT and DE
This would be good because we could go after someone else that could work as a real ST coach. Also Haggins got the two Mad co guys.
Timingof coaching changes??
what do we think the timetable for all of this will be? what would be the most ideal timetable in most eyes be to allow us to go after the coaches we want?? thats assuming that other schools would be looking also…
Champs Bowl would be the PERFECT send-off for Mickey.
This NEEDS to happen. However, my only concession would be if they felt like they couldn’t perform the necessary damage control with recruits in the weeks leading up to the game. That must come first. That said, it would be unreasonable for them not to be able to perform said damage control. This is another opportunity for positive spin, forward progress with both national and local media exposure, you name it, and I fear yet another missed opportunity for Florida State.
Waiting until after the game will put us at more of a recruiting disadvantage.
Because then the job search stuff eats into January.
Hypothetically here’s how I’d do it:
-Announce Mickey’s retirement next week.
-Publically thank him for everything he’s done throughout the years.
-Begin searching for new DCs regardless of the position they coach. Even if we are not allowed to (or simply won’t) interview candidates who haven’t played in their bowls yet, we will have two weeks of planning behind us by the time the game is done.
-Do not mention the status of the other defensive coaches, as we can all assume
they’re gone if Mickey is gone. Let them keep working. I assume Odell is safe. If Chuck
wants to be a head coach, he’d better continue to do his job for as long as he’s here or
else his reputation would be shot.
-Play the bowl game on December 27.
-Have a new DC announcement within a week of the game, hopefully just in time for the Under Armor and All-American games the first weekend in January.
-Also within a week of the game, release Dexter Carter if that’s part of the plan.
-Have a complete defensive and offensive staff in place by January 13. This move gives us three weeks to recruit, and 3 weekends for official visits.
Let me clean that up a bit.
Take Odell completely out of the part about the status of the other coaches. I think he is fine and is off the table as far as changes go.
I wanted to include that in the above part and put it in a confusing place.
Well, we have 2 votes then.
Yet we know they won’t get this right.
Truly I probably won’t be too picky if said changes just get done. The program’s been so far off course, to even hit one past the infield would be amazing to me. I would consider your scenario to be a huge home run. We don’t have the batters.
I just don't understand why we can't learn from our mistakes.
Hiring Mark McHale was a huge mistake, but hiring him 3 days after signing day put us in a hole that we’re still not fully out of.
Definitely
I meant get the ball rolling on a coaching search. If we are going to make changes, make them.
I'm assuming we cannot do anything formal until the current staff members are released.
We cannot conduct interviews, negotiate, etc. I guess we can lay the groundwork and get some names in mind, but I’d at least like us to hit the ground running on December 28th.
My issue is with the timing.
I think it’s an honorable thing to not want to interfere with another team’s season by interviewing their coach before the bowl game or while they are recruiting.
Honorable coaches get fired all the time.
When it comes right down to it, waiting until January to begin any of this only hurts Florida State. Who would you rather be at a disadvantage: FSU or the teams whose coaches we may or may not target?
Mark Richt as an example...
i cant exactly remember how that all happened? but i know it completely ruined the national championship game for us and we went on to lose. the timing of that was awful for us…
i dont want a situation where we totally lose focus and come to the bowl game ill-prepared because of off field drama. but then again i dont know how it hurts recruting, which is why i posed the question….
Good read
I hope your right about mickey and chuck. I love mickey, but i think his time is up.
Clarification needed from someone...
…as I appear to have my facts mixed up. When would the penalty/bonus be owed Fisher? After the 2009 season or after the 2010 season?
That's what I thought.
Somehow in the last few days I convinced myself otherwise. I’m vulnerable right now.
So, have “insiders” told you this or is this just your hope and speculation?
Like you suggested, I think Bobby should announce ’09 will be his last season. It would take a small bit of steam away from UF and it should help us recruiting. It would also help sell more tickets.
This whole situation is so discouraging...
Yet, it happens all the time in the “real world” of business and workplaces — someone who was the right man for the job sometime in the past is no longer able to keep up with the various changes that occur from time to time in the workplace.
If the person was iconic, it’s very difficult to disgorge them from the operation. The result is, almost without fail, rampant disfunction. Everybody along the line is infected. Then, management will try to make things better by removing the person from their old position of glory and giving them a fake job, but with the same or an even better title and the same pay, perks, etc.
That just breeds resentment. Soon, the legendary history of this team member is forgotten because nobody in the present day can reconcile their current selfishness and cluelessness with past greatness.
And the dysfunction grows — exponentially. Members of the team ask questions like: How strong can this business really be if the powers that be allow this to keep happening? And, lost of people do really well in their jobs — does that mean they’re all allowed to hang around and collect a big pay check as long as they want? And, I don’t care how old he is or what he did before I was born, if he doesn’t have to work very hard and still lives like a king, I’m sure not going to kill MYself.
Meanwhile, those who really care about the organization are left to feel much like someone who stands to inherit big money when their beloved, yet chonically and terminally ill granny dies. They don’t wish her a bit of ill will, but can’t help thinking: Granny, could we just get ON with it!
Bottom line: it’s hard for me to get immersed in speculation on DC’s and who’s going pro and recruiting, because I don’t see an way we can overcome the program’s current dysfunction. It doesn’t mean I don’t care, it just seems so futile to me. And so very unnecessary. Yes,we can and have improved parts of the program incrementally, but real 2008 Alabama-like change wont’ come until … well…. until granny kicks the bucket (figuratively, of course).
by Fsued on Dec 8, 2008 3:33 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I want to point out, however,
That I think we can do a lot of things (and are doing some) to mitigate the damages and have this program hit the ground running when Bowden finally goes. These coaching changes are a good start.
Right on.
And this is why when I ask a stupid question lately, about the DC’s that are out there or whatever, I’ve oftentimes prefaced it with, “I’ve been so frustrated lately, I haven’t even looked at ……. yet.” I know exactly what you mean, Ed.
Curious
Why you put Texas Tech behind USC? They have a tougher sos. Yes, USC beat OSU, but Tech beat Texas. Their loss to OU (while they got destroyed), is still a loss against a team that is playing for a national title, rather than against a conference runner up in a terrible conference. Anyway, pretty accurate though.
I'm really not sure. USC, PSU, and TTech were all pretty close in my mind.
I thought about PSU over USC and TTech
There's no exact science to any poll. It's tough with 119 teams with very few common opponents.
My top 6 is 1. Texas, 2. Oklahoma, 3. Florida, 4. Alabama, 5. Texas Tech, 6. USC, and I could defend it to the death if I had to. But then if you put Uncensored’s poll in front of me, I could defend his to the death too.
Of course the problem with college football isn’t the polls – the problem is that in college football the polls matter. At least until you get to #3.
I'll take the team with a close, fluke loss
over the team that got utterly annihilated and was losing to Texas A&M and Baylor at halftime.
I think Ole Miss is going surprise a lot of the people who have been riding Tech’s jock when they beat them in the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is a good but not elite football team.
Sagarin's predictor has them ranked 14th
It’s ridiculous over at Burntorangenation with a number of posters saying that Florida doesn’t deserve to be in the MNC game solely on account of their “horrible” loss to Ole Miss. It makes me wish for an “Ignore Poster” feature.
I know you're a Texas fan,
but TODAY, I think UT is closer to Ole Miss than they are to UF, Oklahoma, USC. Colt is a really good college QB, but we will see what happens against OSU.
Didn't we see what Colt can do vs a great team?
He lead an offense that scored 45 points.
I think Colt is the best college QB in the nation.
Not a horrible loss, but it was still at home
Texas lost by 6 to a team that would be ranked #2 at one point, and they were winning with 2 seconds to play.
TT’s only loss is to the #1 team in the nation.
USC and PSU at least lost on the road.
If we’re ranking based on most deserving I would go Texas, OU, USC, TT, UF, PSU. But I do think UF is a better team than TT and USC and on the same level as Texas and OU.
Do you really want us here every week complaining about the ballot?
Utah has not played a game in two weeks so there is not much in the way of new information.
The Sugar Bowl will be a good game and I think the Utes will surprise some of you.
They won't surprise me.
I expect them to get beat by 30.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
Well I guess Utah might as well not even play the game
Because you have predicted they will lose by 30.
30 was for hyperbole :)
I hope we have a close game, it makes for good football.
The Utes still run the spread option, no?
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
Yes they do.
They look to make a lot of short to medium range passes. They option is in there to keep the defense off balance. Usually the option pitch is to a receiver because our running backs are more comfortable running up the middle.
The problem(s) they will run into are:
Bama’s corners are good, but not great. They get beat by amazing athletes, but not by good athletes. Very technically sound;
They can’t block Terrance Cody (few can).
So, if they can’t go deep with consistency, and can’t run in the middle, I see a lot of interceptions (even though BJ is a good QB).
UTah’s front 7 weighs a combined 1709 lbs, while the team that have slowed Bama’s run game are usually around the 1850lbs+ range in their front 7’s.
If BJ was several interceptions
Then yes, Utah will lose. He was a bit shaky to start this season. He had too many fumbles and interceptions over the first half of the season. Since then, he has played with poise and managed to play the games against BYU and TCU turnover free.
I have no delusions about the strength of Alabama’s defense. I expect a low scoring game. Utah will probably dare Alabama to throw the ball and play single coverage on their receivers.
Utah will probably dare Alabama to throw the ball and play single coverage on their receivers.
That is exactly what they must do to have a chance. if they don’t… blowout.
It's something Utah's corners are prepared to do
Utah frequently plays man coverage. Their defensive philosophy is to try and force the other team to beat Utah through the air. Utah’s corners continually play man-to-man coverage – especially on running downs.
The one exception this year was when Utah played BYU. Utah decided to let them run and to try and block the passing lanes.
I want to know something
what is the dif from Utahs Off and UF off. I know UF has better players but dont they run almost the same one.
From a scheme/ tactical standpoint...
Utah is much more series based, ala the Wing-T, and UF is not series based at all.
UF is also much more multiple in their formations.
Anyone see the Texas rival page?
They have a good article about Lowder. Interesting what they gave Terry Bowden.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
It's an wire article
They gave him: 620,000 settlement, 825,000 lake house, and 2 cars in exchange for saying nothing bad about Auburn.
The title of the report is: Auburn Won’t Take No?
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
Wow
I’d think Bobby Burden would have a bit more pride then to go from semi-figure head to 100% figure head just to add a few W’s to his win total. If it’s only one more season I can handle it, but sadly I think he’s really starting to hurt his legacy.
As for our next DC, we’ve got to Get Smart.
by Dent Street Nole on Dec 8, 2008 6:15 PM EST reply actions
No, probably not.
I think Steele is the guy who would leave Bama, if you are assuming one will or would leave, of which I am not so sure.
I think Steele would come back here if he left.
I am hoping like hell, that’s for sure.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
I know you're not asking me
but I don’t know why he wouldn’t. I’d think FSU could give Smart enough dough to get him back to Tallahassee. Steele too, for that matter.
by Dent Street Nole on Dec 8, 2008 6:54 PM EST reply actions
For the record, we will lose every bidding war with Bama. They have a lot more money than us. Much more.
This isn’t even remotely debatable from what I am told.
Now, other factors could also contribute.
so when are we going to start FSU is going to beat Wis thred.
I best friend from Iraq is a badger fan and Im want to get him to come out here to ether watch the game or even go to it. I think we might have a fight in that one.
I think we will beat them pretty easily
They are not the kind of team that gives us too much trouble. They play pretty straight up and try to beat you by outmuscling you. They don’t have a lot of speed or misdirection, which is what gets us. They don’t have a QB good enough to burn our DBs – at least not burn them too much. I know we can stop their power run game with the front 7 we have.
My early prediction is 27-13 Noles. Antone Smith will be given a bunch of carries in his final game and like Lorenzo Booker has one of his best games as a Nole in his final game. Ponder will play relatively well. Myron will have an interception.
count me in as surprised if Myron has an interception
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
I dont know
I learned a lot about this team last year while I was deployed and The have a few weapons under the radar. There TE is one of the best in the country and PJ hills can run when he wants too. I think we win but the things we have had problems with they have but thats about it.
They were a top 10 team preseason I believe but
They have since stunk it up. They are the Big Ten’s version of Clemson, only without a new coach and they’re not as good.
I was at the Wisconsin Rivals board and they hate Bielema (sp?), they think he is awful.
PJ Hill might not be as good as John Clay. But neither of them are very fast, and it’s been big play backs that have hurt us. I don’t think we’ll get run over. We’ll get them for some TFLs and prevent big runs, and we’ll be fine.
My question is how will our offense handle a pretty physical defense. If they do overpursue a lot, I’d like to see some more of those fake WR screens QB draws. That play always seems good for a 10-15 yard gain.
And I saw them need Cal Poly to miss THREE extra points to win by ONE at HOME
Ridiculous.
Though they played teams like Ohio State kind of close, their 7 wins this year are vs Akron, Fresno State, Cal Poly, Indiana, Minnesota, Marshall and Illinois.
They blew a huge halftime lead over 3-9 Michigan, got crushed by PSU, crushed by Iowa and lost a tough one to MSU.
Then again, they are on a 3 game winning streak and they havent played since the Cal Poly game so you know they are itching to show everyone something.
my gut
screens I see going good but I think we use ponder only if we need too. I we dont have to run a draw try to keep him health and safe. get him some exp and keep is simple. Hit them fast and hard there CB cant hang with our Thugs I mean WR’s
That's a good point on Ponder
This is a nice game that I’d like to win, but it would be a nice chance to get Ponder’s feet wet and see how he can throw downfield for once. We’ve been doing everything in our power to not let him mess up games so far, this time lets see if he can generate a win with his arm.
We should use this as a learning opportunity for him, and give our OL to finally work on their pass protection. If it’s not raining maybe even our receivers will catch 50% or more of the passes that hit their hands!
the only prob.
I think you have to start of small and eazy. I could see is airing it out after the first. When we played WF we lost the game on our first Off play. When Ponder throw his first INT to them it was lights out and the TEAM never bounced back. With pounder we have to start off eazy. I like running 1-2 plays and a screen/slant. Then build him up to go long.
Speaking of misdirection, that would explain why Cal Poly
Ran for 276 yards, as Cal Poly runs a triple option offense like GT. I think they pass more than GT and Navy, but I know they use the flexbone formation and pound it on the ground a lot. If a team with the speed and strength of Cal Poly can run for 276, you’ve gotta think we can run for 150+ easy.
Yes.
The difference? Kansas Sate, Washington, Kansas State, Nebraska, and Texas A&M really hurt them.
The chance an elite team would run through each schedule:
Florida State: 5.7%
Oklahoma: 22.6%
Also, most people are figuring out that Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Kansas aren’t special. Vegas agrees, as the spreads for those teams in their bowl teams sort of show that.
For me
the Missouri-Kansas was the BEST game of the year. It was ridiculously awesome.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
It was a lot of fun to watch, but I think both teams are still riding the "we had cake schedules in '07 and had big seasons" wave
In fact, KU beat 1 BCS conference team with a winning record: Missou.
Missouri beat 2: Nebraska and Illinois.
Color me unimpressed.
I wasn't talking about the teams.
I was talking about the game itself. I agree it was two mediocre teams though. Can you name a better game this year?
Maybe TTech-Texas.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
Also,
OU played 5 top 40 teams
FSU played 9
Miami played 8, but 4 in the top 15ish. They have the toughest schedule in America, with a 5.1% chance an elite team would run the table given their schedule.
Not sure what this means but I think
If you take the top 5 teams right now I think they would go 10-2 with our schedule. But its kinda not fair. I would like to know what all the teams that played UF on there schedule is ranked.
I think Oklahoma and Texas would go 11-1 or 12-0
I do think that teams like USC, TT and PSU would lose 2 or maybe 3 games.
We don’t play great teams, just a bunch of solid ones. How many bowl teams did we play this year… 9? 2 of which are in the BCS, one in the NC. That’s gotta be about the most in the nation. Only 3 losing teams we played, as well.
I did look up the records of Western Car. and Chat. to see if they were winning teams
The answer was a resounding NO… we didn’t just schedule two non D-1A teams, we scheduled two BAD D-1A teams. Chattanooga went 1-11, Western Car went 3-9. They did beat ‘Starter’ 35-0 though.
Make it 'Shorter' not 'Starter'
How could I get those confused.
Sorry to all the Shorter Hawks fans in the house!
Western Carolina did take Georgia Southern into OT…
TDC,
I really think 11-1 is the best OU or Tex would do against our slate. I don’t think it is unreasonable to think a 6% chance represents their true odds of going undefeated against our foes. I’d be interested to see your projected winning %’s for OU playing our schedule.
I don't have any in-depth stats to back it up...
I think we’d win 5 games easily (Chattanooga, A&M, Baylor, Washington, K-State)
Probably win 3 more (Nebraska, TCU, Cincinnatti)
Probably lose 3 more (Texas Tech, Missouri, OSU)
Lose 1 for sure (Texas)
So I think we’d be around 8-4.
Back to OU and Texas with our schedule, other than the obvious UF game, I don’t see who else they’d lose to. They would have more tight games than in the Big XII, but I can’t see a team like GT or BC or Wake beating them.
by tdchrisdavis on Dec 8, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
But you have to give the %'s
That’s why the play the games. If you looked at UF’s sched, pre-season, no way do you say they’d lose to Mississippi. I look back and my notes say “85%.” See my point?
OU prob beats GTech in Tech 70% of the time, not 100.
They get bit on Thursday Night by a pretty decent NC State team what, 10 of the time?
@ Miami is at best a 75% game for them.
See my point?
Yes I do see your point
I don’t think we’d be favored over Missouri though… they would probably score 35+ on us.
by tdchrisdavis on Dec 8, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I think they could lose
I think GT is a better team then I though they were, Clemson can play 1/2 the time, and so could Marland. If OU was ranked Maryland had a chance. The prob is the Big 12 teams are all Off and mild Def. When 6 schools score 45+ points a week thats says something about there Def.
Im glad we did it
we might not look all that good because of playing them but it gave our guys a great start to the season. with the sup. guys out and us needed to do a gut check it helped the players and the fans,
Generally agreed, but...
I’d rather see us play 2 really bad Division 1 teams so that we would be bowl eligible if we played bad later in the year.
The ACC Championship game is going to funcition as a text book case of crash and burn
Let’s be honest, when the ACC expanded, the only suitable match ups it could have had were FSU/Clemson vs Miami/Virginia Tech. That’s happened once and FSU was 7-4. The ACC gambled and lost big time. Unless we see something unexpected like FSU making a quantum leap to national title contention against a top 15 VT, the results will be the same. Speaking of Jacksonville, part of the reason they agreed to go down from the 1st to 2nd pick after the BCS is because the ACC promised the world of the championship game. Well, we see how that turned out. My friend on the Gator Bowl committee let it slip to me that odds are the Gator Bowl isn’t going to renew the ACC contract and instead persue either the Cotton or Outback Bowl’s SEC rights.
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Dec 9, 2008 1:43 AM EST reply actions
There is no way the Gator Bowl should be able to get Cotton or Outback bowl rights.
Dallas and Tampa are much better cities. Jax would have to pony up lots O’ cash.
I agree otherwise, re: the ACCCG talk.
The city wants the game to stay on New Years Day
And as of right now, no Network in their right mind will pay for the rights to it based on the ratings as of late. The city would see pumping the cash to make the bid as an investment.
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Dec 9, 2008 3:29 AM EST up reply actions
Well I'm sorry, City of Jacksonville, you can't have it both ways.
FSU-Nebraska would have gotten incredible ratings nationally.
You chose local revenue and went with Clemson.
And oh yeah… you still suck as a city.
I'm just going off what he told me
There’s still another year on the contract so anything could happen
"I smoke. If this bothers anyone, I suggest you look around at the world in which we live and shut your mouth."-Bill Hicks
by Jonathan Loesche on Dec 9, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
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