Ponder...Better or Worse than his Stats?...updated with TD's
by MNeilson on Dec 9, 2008 6:10 PM EST
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PrintI was reviewing Ponder's stats for the breakdown of recruits and thought I would post some thoughts on them here. I started out by trying to prove a point, but these show me something different. Keep an open mind and let me know what you think.
Here are his stats.
6Td and 13INT's against D1A opponents. 12-13 overall. 4 Rushing TD's. 404 Rushing Yards. 113.03 Rating (not bad, not good). 1807 passing. This offense isn't designed to give the quarterback huge numbers.
After watching most (all but the wake and AA opponents) of the games when I looked at how many INT's to TD's he threw I was shocked. So I went back and looked at the play by play for each game, and tried to remember his INT's. Here is what I found.
Wake Forest - 2 INT's 0 TD
1 - 10 (opening series) - leads to 3 points
3-21 (FSU 21) - Returned to the 17 yrd line. Skinner fumbles a couple of plays later. No points.
One was on garbage time with 2 min left 3 and 20.....desperation
Colorado - 1 pick 0TD
2-9 (FSU 23) Led to 0 points because of a missed FG. FSUncensored reminded me this was a freak play. Ponder caught a tipped ball, tried to make a play and failed to secure it.
Miami - 2 INT's 1TD
3 and 8 at (Mia 41) (threw into endzone, might as well just count it as a punt)
2-9 (FSU 3) - Pick 6 (potentially very costly)
Touchdown - Comeback route to Greg Carr (thrown off his backfoot)
NC St - 1TD 0INT
17 yrd pass to Bert Reed (Swing Pass, great run after catch)
Ga.Tech - 1 INT
Tipped ball, picked, returned to 4yrd line. Sets up a TD
4 Yrd pass to Holloway (no idea on the route. Don't remember)
Virginia Tech - 1TD 0INT
Easterling 4 Yrd (Bubble Screen I believe) TD
Clemson 1-INT
2-9 (Clemson 11) Pick in the endzone
Surrency - 14yrd TD (fade I believe)
Maryland - 1TD 0INT
Parker (7yrd bubble screen or underneath I believe)
BC - 3 INT
Pick 6 (87 Yards)
3-25 at BC46 Throws INT at BC 19yrd line (good as a punt)
1-10 at BC28 Carr runs a terrible route. Touchback. Leads to 3 points. Huge Drive Killer (why we decided to pass here is a mystery)
UF - 2 INT
3-12 at FSU 39 to Fla 16 off a tipped ball (as good as a 45 yrd punt)
1-10 at FSU 40 to Spikes returned to FSU 20. (terrible way to open 2nd half. He comes out. Reports are that he was hurting. Terrible read though)
I will have more tommorow as to how I think Ponder is doing. I set out to prove that the INT's were misleading. They are slightly, but some were costly interceptions.
TD - INT ratio against formable opponents (FBS) is terrible. However, I think he is slightly better than his stats may indicate. This offense isn't designed to create Heisman quarterback numbers when we ran the ball as well as we did this year.
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The Colorado Ball wasn't a pick-- weird scoring decision
Remember he threw it, tipped, he caught it, tried to run with it, and fumbled. By rule this is a pick, but it’s not really a throw, ya know?
How many were from tips/getting pummeled while throwing?
I remember him stiff arming a DL (or DE?) and avoiding the sack and turning it into a good play… hes had his downs, but he also has been clutch in some situations.
Bottom line for me: verdict still out, optimistic none-the-less.
II think he is better than his interception totals indicate, but on par with his overall numbers.
I believe the interceptions were deceiving, but he was inaccurate at times with balls that were not intercepted.
The worst throws in my mind were:
1-10 at FSU 40 to Spikes returned to FSU 20. (terrible way to open 2nd half. He comes out. Reports are that he was hurting. Terrible read though)
BC: Pick 6 (87 Yards)
Wake: 1 – 10 (opening series) – leads to 3 points
I thought the following throws were distinctly bad luck/ majorly the fault of a receiver/olineman:
The colorado “int”, explained in my above post.
2-9 (FSU 3) – Pick 6 (potentially very costly)— I didn’t love this call, in the rain, up big, but we didn’t pick up the blitz and his arm was hit.. the ball went straight up in the air.
1-10 at BC28 Carr runs a terrible route. Touchback. Leads to 3 points. Huge Drive Killer (why we decided to pass here is a mystery)—- Not only that, but we blocked with 8 and Ponder still got hit while he was throwing!
3-12 at FSU 39 to Fla 16 off a tipped ball (as good as a 45 yrd punt)
Good Follow up.
I think that Miami pick 6 was on Him though. The ball did go straight up in the air, however he finished his drop, had another second or two, the rush came from his front side and he tried to hang in there and make the throw. It wasn’t the throw that was terrible. Just the decision to hold onto it and not run (he had the entire left side open to run).
No doubt!
That is going to be included in my synopsis of him tomorrow. I think that is his biggest strength. He can also make some very good decisions and throws on the run.
So that I don't come off as a total basher of everyone today,
I will also ass that I was pleasantly surprised to see him able to throw rolling left or right, something young QB’s often struggle with. Heck, Rothlesberger still can’t throw going to his left.
Good use of the fanpost section, UNF.
The thing about Ponder is
How did his touchdowns come about? How many were on screen passes or fades to a big receiver?
I believe all 4 of Surrencey’s TDs came on one of those two routes.
He played two teams who run zone heavy and his ratio was 0-6.
I think he showed some good stuff with his feet and keeping plays alive, but he looks scared to throw the ball over the middle when it is not a short crossing route. Part of it is poor blocking, but Weatherford could air it out from time to time with a worse OL and worse pocket instincts. Remember what DW did last year vs BC?
Colorado, Clemson, GT, and NC State were just as heavy as BC and Wake. I'm not sure where this idea came from that those 2 are the only zone teams on our schedule.
Part of it is poor blocking, but Weatherford could air it out from time to time with a worse OL and worse pocket instincts
This is a misconception in my eyes. This line was better than the ’07 line because of run blocking. The run blocking got light years better, but the pass blocking was much much worse.
he looks scared to throw the ball over the middle when it is not a short crossing route.
Agreed. He struggled to read multiple levels of defenders.
I don't think the answer here stayed the same all year.
Early (minus the wake debockle) he looked good, read D’s stepped into pocket…even the back foot throw you refered to was a good read…he had to get the ball off before pressure and chunked it as hard as he could.
Late he looked afraid to stay in the pocket…not sure why…he was consistently chewed out for this…he rolled out almost imediately and trashed alot of plays in so doing.
I'm just going off of what I've read
I guess a more accurate way to say it is that BC and Wake are good zone defenses with lots of ball-hawks who can pick off any wayward passes.
The other defenses you listed are not as good at taking adavantage of bad throws.
by tdchrisdavis on Dec 9, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
better or worst
I think ponder has something. I dont know what it is but its better than Drew and Dvo. Drew has one last game then hes gone thank you God. Ponder is what a So. He still a kid. kinda. I think the stats are what they are but hes going to get better and I think hes going to ne a great exp. for EJ. He seems like a smart kid and a good leader. He just needs to start of slower than other QB. Dont get me wrong hes no Winky but hes good enough to ride out to get use back to the ACCCG next year and maybe into the NC in 2 years. These stats are from a behind a O-line that couldnt pass block. Next year wont be so bad because he shouldnt feel the pressure. only time will tell
I can't even remember a ball being throw over the middle and being complete
I’m talking like middle-deep.
Seemed to really struggle with those throws.
I never sleep cuz sleep is the cousin of death.
I dont think he is very accurate
with deep balls at all. Carr and Surrency would help him out from time to time here but his forte is in the 15 yard range. He can throw a great ball to the flats though. I thought Jimbo did a pretty good job of allowing him to play to his strengths.
I'll have to disagree
While we haven’t called that many of these plays lately, he did look good throwing some deep passes earlier in the year…recievers just didn’t make plays…go look at some of those games.
clarify...
correy and carr are the main ones we ran these plays to early…they either didn’t catch alot of those balls or didn’t run the routes properly (which makes the QB’s throw look bad).
I thought he hit some against Miami.
UNF,
I don’t have exactstats on this, but early in the year, he hit a TON of 3rd and 10+ plays, to the point where some national statisticians were saying “yeah, not sustainable.” Later in this year, he slipped back to a normal range; the range you’d expect from even a great college QB.
My thinking is that he isn’t great at reading multiple levels at once, and that defenses began to adjust later on.
The 2 3rd and 17+’s to Easterling were good examples of good middle throws.
For every good pass to Easterling over the middle
there was 2 passes that sailed, bounced off a defenders hands or were thrown well behind the receiver.
passes where a reciever didn't get the right depth or didn't sit down in the zone but drifted
Yeah, right!
What makes that even weirder was that
When we were playing those cover 2 teams, you need to attack the deep middle, that is where it is most vulnerable… over the MLB, between the safeties.
by tdchrisdavis on Dec 9, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
Wake, BC, NCST, Colorado were primary cover-3 teams.
Clemson, Maryland, GTech (mixed), and Miami were cover-2 (though Miami is C2in shell only)
VT played almost exclusively press man.
A few TD corrections...
I think the GT TD was a playaction flats route by Holloway… great throw low and outside.
The VT TD was an amazing play. Play Action Gun, 2wr LEFT, 2rb, 1wr right PA Draw (we had been running the draw well), Post route.
Clemson TD to Surrency was a deep middle screen
MD game was a bubble to Parker
Yea, the Holloway throw was a good one
He made a great catch, it was thrown just past the defender.
by tdchrisdavis on Dec 10, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
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