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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

Coaching Changes & truecolor's crystal ball...what's your take?

There is a lot of talk about coaching changes

We've discussed Jimbo's tenure and just how long he is willing to hang around. We have more than hammered home Bobby's need to depart and our feer that prolonging his departure will drive away our offensive staff along with the short term future of our program.  We've even talked about the needed changes on the Defensive staff.  (yes FSUncensored I've finally given in to your point of view...this happened some time during the GT game when we not only couldn't stop the option, but still didn't know how to in the 3rd quarter of said contest).  But, what is the real truth about what's going on in Tallahassee?  And, more importantly, what is going to happen as a result?  I also want to know what you think will happen, so chime in.

Smoke in your eyes

Let's try to blow away the smoke that is often created when these types of things go on when the media ways in on every single rumor to sell their stuff. 

1. Jimbo - What I think is really hapening here is that Auburn has his name on a list, and has perhaps contacted his agent. (who by the way is adept at NEVER saying no he just floats names until he gets "an offer you can't refuse"..sorry)  I don't believe he is interested, and I think we all bit the apple.  You know, the tempting one saying over here! Eat me.  Be fearful of everything everyone does in tallahassee, and more importantly boost my ratings.

2. Bobby Bowden - I don't believe that he is going to stay way too long.  You could argue it's already been too long, but I want to point out that a supposed plan is underway to change that.  My beliefe?  That the plan is more detailed than "awe shucks Bowden" is admiting.  I have believed that the day is set and they are working the plan...just not telling you and me.  Who could blame them.  That wouldn't be prudent.  If you are going to name your sucessor this is the way to do it.  Let people know it's probably on the horizon, don't give a clear and exact time table (in case there are needed adjustments) get the guy, get the guy established, and then make a smooth somewhat note worthy, but mostly expected transistion to the guy who has to replace a coaching legend.  Now that I think about it, this is the ONLY way to do it and expect good results. It helps build recruiting without creating a total void, transition staff, and make sure it's working before you actually pull the trigger.

Possible proof: Let's look at what actions they've taken so far...

a. huge confrontation regarding OC Jeff Bowden AND the future of Bobby as a result of some very lackluster years.

b. the search for THE perfect offensive coordinator and potential replacement should he leave.  (I believe they were very intentional here i.e. "bobby go get someone good cause he's taking your place by xx/xx/20xx).

c. in year one not only highering him, but essentially leting him test drive the team making head coach level changes in offensive staff, recruiting philosophy, and practice style, etc, etc. (very shrude they did this without giving him any title or making this official public knowlege)  I think again this was a trial basis on a handshake.

d. in year two when he performed (top 10 recruiting class, offensive improvement, team moving in the right direction) they gave him a time line for replacement, announced that he was next, while not making it completely final (i.e. date on the calendar publicly) to give Bowden some dignity and time to work fisher in.

e. this year Bowden aggresively starts to groom him on fundraising and boosters to get him ready for a transition.  Guys, you don't do this level of prep for "just in case" this transition is going to happen!

In all I think they have a day on the calendar and we will continue to see events that move us progressively move us toward that date...when...only the insiders know and as is so often the case in FSU football they ain't telling us a dadgum thing until the time is right. 

3. Mickey - I think the Mickey rumors are true...though this is completely a hunch.  IF they are, it will be the next in the series of events that leads us to "the secret day". 

How will it play out?

IF I'm right, It will probably play out like...

a. Andrew's makes an exit,

b. Jimbo gets his staff,

c. Bowden gets a last fling and Grand exit at the end of next season.

d. Jimbo has his staf, his team, and is effectively already the head coach, so there is a happy, smooth transition.

PS - I think this might be why Bowden commented and then took it back...sorrta took it back.  He know's when he's leaving, but they are playing it like "we've got this contract for this many years, but who knows"  Fisher - "he'll leave when he's ready" and "that's his decision" (laughs and smiles cause he KNOWS whith certainty that it WILL happen and they are taking there sweet time getting it ready.  Bowden "I'm not sure"  and "I'll know" and "I'm taking it a year at a time right now." when he knows exactly what's going down. 

Also - They may not have the exact date but, they've got the window. Du!

Of coarse, this is all my take...so what's yours?

Comment 61 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Okay, a few quick thoughts...

I don’t think they have a date set, yet. If they did, Jimbo would have demanded it be in the contract.

Jimbo is not signed to be our next head coach. The deal is more like “if you’re NOT the next head coach, we pay you $2.5 Million”

I cautiously believe we are moving in the right direction.

I fear that we miss a bowl game next season, and people will put this all on the guy who we’ve tabbed to be the successor.

I think most underestimate just how much can’t happen until Bobby is gone. Jimbo can’t go tell these guys “hey, no more slacking off. This isn’t Bobby’s team any more. I don’t nap, okay?” Leadership takes time and doesn’t come from our current alignment.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 10, 2008 12:17 AM EST reply actions  

follow up

I don’t think they have a stated date either…I do think they have a window, and are moving progressively toward the goal of making him head coach.

I believe the reason The contract and the public message is not more specific is that they are trying him out one step at a time. They are slowly giving him the reigns and seeing if its a fit…that’s smart.

People are already blaming Fisher (in small numbers) and will continure to be stupid…who cares…for what ever reason we’ve raised a portion of our fanbase that is highly emotional and not too football savy.

You’re right! He needs to be able to deal with HIS people. That should happen in the future…just not now.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 8:36 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think we will be as bad as you think

next year. My biggest problems with FSU fans right now is overreaction. I think we will stay at about where we are. NCSt is going to be better, Maryland-worse, Wake – ehh, probably worse, GaTech – better, Boston College – worse, VaTech – better, Clemson – worse, Miami – maybe a step forward, up in the air.

I dont think we take as many steps back. In fact, I am not a betting man, but I would put money on the idea that we finish within a game of where we are today.

by MNeilson on Dec 10, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

This is off subject, but I'll bite.

9-3 so you’re right within one game cause the schedule gets slightly touger.

Home (5-0) NC state & Ga Tech will be close, but we are at home…and should do better with option.
Miami – W
Maryland – W
NC State – W
Ga Tech – W
Maine – 1/2W

Away (4-2) We will show why BYU should play teams that are good before bieng hyped and lose to two teams who are ahead of us…UNC is barely.
Florida – L
BYU – W
Clemson – W
BC – W
UNC – L
Wake Forrest – W

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I'll take 6-6 or 7-5

No way can you assume wins at Clemson, BC, Wake, or v. Miami or GTech.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 10, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say we will be better

I just don’t think its as bad as “I’m worried we wont make a bowl game next year.”

You may not be able to assume wins at clemson bc or wake, but you can’t assume losses against them either. You also can’t assume a loss against UNC.

by MNeilson on Dec 10, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Correct. Using winning % is a MUCH better way of projecting a season that straight w/o

I posted this in the Jeff Cameron thread:

We’ve tightened the reigns on the academic stuff. Spetman is trying to turn us into an academy almost, and people got on him about that. Still, the reigns won’t be re-loosened for at least a semester.

This offseason we had to worry about a ton of guys’ eligibility. People forget about this because they did make it in, but we still lost Dunham and one other guy whose name escapes me at the moment.

We also have an incredibly difficult schedule next year. This year, I pegged us at 8.7 wins, and most experts felt we were about unlucky to the tune of a half game.

Next year, we have (% chance of winning)
@ UF: 10%
@ UNC: 40%
@ Wake: 60%
@ Clemson: 40%
@ BYU: 60% (they do lose a good bit and I don’t think they’re very good)
TCU: 75% (again, lost a lot, and not that good)
NC State: 70%
Maryland: 80%
@ Boston College: 45%
Maine 100%
GTech: 55% (they lose their superstar defensive linemen)
Miami: 55%

That looks about like 7 wins to me. Again, this is very rough, is not an official prediction, etc.

I am worried that the 2 guys we most need back— Watson and PRob have had trouble with Academics. Some people believe McNiel will straight flunk out of school (I’m not convinced he will).

Do we make a bowl if we go 6-6 with one of the wins against D1-AA competition? I’m not sure. Can someone clarify??

by Bud Elliott on Dec 10, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

???

40% clemson!? I really don’t see any basis for that.

55% GT is no very accurate either… your point is a big reason why. plus I don’t think they will catch us as off gaurd with that offense.

55% Miami isn’t going to improve as much as anticipated IMO.

45% BC – they will be offensively but not defensively.

And, both our points are mute if we don’t loose a couple of early jumpers defensively…(I’m counting Brown gone, but a couple juniors might stick around.)

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

40% for Clemson makes sense. They return a bunch of talent and were excellent on defense for most of this year. We haven’t won in Death Valley since 2001. We will be a 3 point underdog at least, about a 40% chance of winning.

55% for GT at home makes sense. We’re about even in terms of ability, and the game is in Tallahassee. We will be a small favorite at home, and that is about a 55% chance of winning. If GT didn’t lose some DLineman I’d give us only a 40% chance of winning this game in Doak.

55% Miami… this could be a Labor day game, We will be a small favorite at home, and that is about a 55% chance of winning this rivalry game

45% BC BC loses less than you know and we won’t be favored to win this game.

These projections are based off only losing Brown and Rolle as far as juniors go.

IF we lose Watson, PRob , or others, my projections would go down.

FSU’s simply not that good of a team. These games are mostly coin-flip situations, with home field tipping the balance for or against.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 10, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

And Yes

You get to credit one AA school to your record.

by MNeilson on Dec 10, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

hmm

I do think we’re better than GT. withouth the Dline not close…

Clemson will not be as well coached as some suspect

BC is good in the box and this year we beat them at full strength. next year we will be.

I don’t think I’m saying huge percentages better, I just think I’m slightly more optomistic than you are… and as you saw this year…slightly better gets you at least one more win.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you think we will be

favored to win in Clemson?

Favored by more than a td over GTech?

I’m not sure what you mean by this,

BC is good in the box and this year we beat them at full strength. next year we will be.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 10, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions  

well

I think the ACC is going to be just as crazy next year as this. GT is going to be better and I dont think we are going to stop them. I think however we might not have to stop anyone next year because we will just out score them. sounds crazy but I think thats how we win ever game that we win.

by Desman on Dec 10, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

NCST did it didnt they.

I think people are looking to fare into this. Our Off should keep us in more games tell we get our Def back into this.

by Desman on Dec 10, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

yep

every other year we loose some Defense and it’s “oh no! it will be a down year!” And every year we pick it up…and that’s with the “dreaded mickey andrews” coaching them.

I think people underestimate our young defensive talent.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

he lives and dies by the stats

I think next year people are going to worry about or Def. but it will be ok. We are going to have to throw some True Fr in there and they will make it work. The big problems is going to get coaches to take them to the next lvl. as of right now we dont have them on Def. But this will change we all hope very soon.

by Desman on Dec 15, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

faith

I think we will be better but only if someone steps up on Def. Thats our kriptonight. I think our Off will rock.

by Desman on Dec 10, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

also Game Worn Blackout Jerseys are being auctioned on Seminoles.com

I don’t say this to give them advertising…

I just hope it means we’re getting rid of those things once and for all!

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 10, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions  

I wish but,

Nike makes to much money off of us buying a whole teams worth of jerseys and SHOES that they only wear for one game. I’m sure there’s some random contract somewhere that says we have to continue using them for so many years. We have to make some of the money back so might as well auction them…

So long and Farewell Bobby... Oh what was that? Not yet? You'd like to take one more ass ramming by UF? Sounds good...

by floundringaround on Dec 10, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions  

So true,

but what else would we do all Gold?

So long and Farewell Bobby... Oh what was that? Not yet? You'd like to take one more ass ramming by UF? Sounds good...

by floundringaround on Dec 10, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions  

yea i guess but we would still end up with the random alum who didn't get the memo and wear gray

or some other color which is not even a team color let alone garnet

So long and Farewell Bobby... Oh what was that? Not yet? You'd like to take one more ass ramming by UF? Sounds good...

by floundringaround on Dec 10, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

i agree

i think the all garnet uni’s are tight. but how come we aren’t able to actually get a “Black Out” at Doak? On TV it just looks like a lot of people wearing some black but then everyone else is wearing whatever they want.

It’s pretty freaking cool to watch Penn State play in Happy Valley when they have “White Outs”. EVERYONE is wearing white…..

by Renegade11 on Dec 11, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

what is sad is thats almost every game.

I have to say this about the Big 10 OSU you dont see fans wearing yellow or blue, same with Wis. Mish fans donr wear red or green. Down here we have a wide color sceem. Peole wear yellow, gold, Red, garnet, black, white. and such. there needs to be someone to tell the fans what to wear I think. I understand no one has to do anything but if its your team show pride. If we got to UF you are going to see 3 colors b/o/w thats about it.

by Desman on Dec 11, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Bring back the Garnet on Garnet scheme for special games

Our record was much better with those.

Someone get Burt Reynolds on the horn. I am sure Mr. Boogie nights would like to make a donation to his favorite football team like he did before.

The old ones I hear were burnt in a fire … I thought I saw Steve Spurrier running around with matches … sounds suspicious to me.

by PewterPirate55 on Dec 11, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh and great post

I agree that there is some behind the scenes agreement here. It may seem overly cautious but in the end (next year!! hopefully) it will work out for the betterment of whats remaining of the program

So long and Farewell Bobby... Oh what was that? Not yet? You'd like to take one more ass ramming by UF? Sounds good...

by floundringaround on Dec 10, 2008 10:39 AM EST reply actions  

I think you are dead right

I think its all done with but there why would you want people to know when you are leaving. BB isnt the head coach anymore anyhow. Jimbo runs the team BB gets the credit. I think BB was trying to get to 400wins. but I dont see that happening. Thats life. As I have said above I think everyone is so worried about our Def next year. I dont think we need to worry. they are not going to be the best think in the world and there is nothing we can do about that. What FSU needs to do is work extra hard on Off and just out score every other team we play and I think we can do that. This year we used Ball control to kill the clock and stoped the other team 1 or 2 more times than they did us. Thats all its going to take. Def wins champ. Well, we are not going to the NC so who cares how good or bad our Def is. Off wins games and I think thats what we need to go.

by Desman on Dec 10, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions  

Am I the only one crazy enough to predict the ACC title game and BCS Berth next year.

We were a few plays/decisions away from the ACC title game this year.

Half of the WR corps suspended for the BC game hurt us.

We were 2 yards away from beating Ga Tech too.

I see things a lot closer than they were.

Miami got manhandled by Ga Tech. I think we are ahead of their program. Miami was only in the game against us late because of special teams mistakes. 1 year of maturity in the offense cures those mistakes.

Sorry but I see the glass as half full guys.

by PewterPirate55 on Dec 11, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

Hmm. Not sure.

Agree on BC, but GT… no way.

Remember what happened: 31 Points, 0 Turnovers, & 321 yards on 39 Plays. 8.2 yards per play. Up until GT’s QB left the game, that’s what they had done. 8.2 yards per play.
We were dominated until we got lucky and still lost. I do not think we were close in GTech at all. We were handled WORSE than Miami until their QB rolled his ankle.

Agree on Miami v. US.

I think the talent we’re bringing in is good, but insiders say the leadership on this team is non-existent.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 11, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I thought GT was going to score at least 52.

I was just pleased to have a shot to win at the end. Of course I wished Sims wouldn’t have fumbled (gosh darnit). I was seeing red after that fumble.

We clearly didn’t deserve to win. I wasn’t as upset by the GT game as I was by the BC game.

Our goal is simple: Best in the land

by FSUSOM on Dec 11, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

someone will step up

 its just a matter of who and when.

by Desman on Dec 11, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting take on the GT game

Never thought of that but we were getting handled.

But you easily agree that two more wins were left on the field.

If those happen … FSU wins the ACC this year.

by PewterPirate55 on Dec 11, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Well...

I will say this: we were not unlucky in any loss this year. We deserved to lose every time we lost. GT was probably the game we deserved to lose the 2nd most (UF obviously 2nd).

I don’t see any wins we left on the field in all honesty. I’m a diehard Seminole fan, but yards typically tell a truer tale than points.

What games do you think were left on the field? I also think we could have easily lost the VTech game. Injury to a QB isn’t a reflection of talent and is not a repeatable skill, in my opinion.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 11, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

hay hay hay

I think the first 2 games were left on the field and some say they were our best. JK I think we played ok all year. I think we could win every game next year and lose them all just the same. It going to be up to finding someone on the field with the hart and finding a DC that game make what we have on Def work.

by Desman on Dec 11, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I dont think FSU is ready to beat UF ether but

We are going to have some tough games next year. I dont think we will win them all but I think we can win them all. UF will beat us and Im ok with that. I would rather win the ACC over then next few years and lose to UF than have UF the only team we beat. I feel when we get back on top of the mont. and rule the ACC again then we can go after UF and the NC. That is the problem at Auburn they want a team to beat Bama and thats just not going to happen. they need to start over and work there way to the SECCG first.

by Desman on Dec 15, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

As I said Previously

I think GT and BC … were left on the field.

Regardless of the GT stats … We were two yards away from a winning TD inside the last two mins.

But I stipulate thoroughly that GT manhandled us with their starting QB in the game. But injuries are part of the game and it is football not a tea party. We have to get that TD and win that game.

BC was left well in the Student Union … So I guess you couldn’t say that was left on the field. If half of our WR corps isn’t suspended for that game. I don’t think we lose that one either.

Just my two pennies.

by PewterPirate55 on Dec 14, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions  

yes and no

they both beat us fair and Sq. But its not our falt there Qb got hurt its not our falt we had a fumble when we should have scored. Thats how the stars lined up and we lost. I think GT is going to get better. I hate saying that because I called there Option a gimmik all year and told everyone that it would get stoped. not Im eating my words. Its going to take a while. I dont care if anyone else can stop it. FSU needs to learn how.

by Desman on Dec 15, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

not really...

our talent IS ahead of theirs…EVERYONE struggled with option…will take time for our underclassmen to see it a few times.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 14, 2008 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Mickey

I’m not even close to being convinced that Mickey is retiring. If I had to bet right now I’d say he’ll be back next season.

As for our record, I think we go 8-5 after the bowl game.

by Dent Street Nole on Dec 14, 2008 6:21 PM EST reply actions  

He will retire

if not this year…after next!

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Dec 14, 2008 8:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, that depends.
  • The program won’t evaporate if he state.
  • We could miss a bowl game. I don’t think that is unrealistic. Not LIKELY, but not out of the question.
  • We will be set back another full year. Every year under this collection of coaches sets back further from the elite. We have a big hole to dig out from.

by Bud Elliott on Dec 15, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

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