Can They Do It?

by nafselon on Mar 12, 2008 6:02 PM EDT in Basketball

Let's be clear, FSU isn't on the bubble. They can play their way onto the bubble, but right now they are pretty much an NIT lock (although a win wouldn't hurt them with that either).

Here's the basic ACC math in terms of FSU basketball.

Zero wins = NIT probable
1 win = NIT Lock
2 win = NCAA Tournament Mid-Bubble
3 win = NCAA Tournament Major-Bubble
4 win = NCAA Auto Bid & No. 8 seed.

So that being said there's a case for Leonard Hamilton:

With its victory against Miami on Saturday, FSU concluded its third consecutive season with at least seven ACC wins -- the longest such streak in school history.

In the past three regular seasons, FSU has won 23 ACC games. In the five seasons before, the Seminoles won just 22 conference games.

Before Hamilton arrived, FSU hadn't won more than six conference games since the 1992-93 team won 12. Between the '92-93 season and when Hamilton arrived in 2002, the Seminoles won five or less ACC games five times.

A case against Leonard Hamilton?

During the past six seasons, FSU is 22-30 in games decided by five points or less. Removing the Seminoles' best (6-3 this year) and worst (3-9 in 2004-05) performances in games decided by five or less, FSU is 13-18.

The Seminoles have finished just one of the past six seasons -- when they went 7-3 in 2006 -- with a winning record in their final 10 regular season games, a stretch of importance to the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Overall, FSU is 25-35 under Hamilton during the final 10 games in each of his six seasons.

Of course what would noted Gator graduate Mike Bianchi do? He'd fire Hamilton and hire former Gator assistant Anthony Grant...

And in five years when Billy Donovan heads to the NBA for real, he'll say the Grant should go back to the Gators...

But enough of that...Does anyone smell an FSU upset?

His team has been playing awfully well of late. The Seminoles have won four of their last five - with their lone loss coming at the hands of the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, N.C. - and are coming off an overtime win over Miami on Saturday.

So it's not inconceivable that they'll make a run at the title in Charlotte.

But first they will have to figure out a way to beat Wake Forest, which swept the season series from the Seminoles.

Or Cinderella Run?

Hamilton has made a point of telling his players: "There's no reason you should go into the tournament not feeling you are capable of making something happen."

Maybe they'll be able to make a run this weekend in Charlotte. Maybe their luck will turn. Finally.

"Sometimes the basketball gods smile down on you," senior guard Jason Rich said. "Stranger things have happened."

0 recs | Comment 1 comments