It's that time again!  Friday morning!  You need to kill some time at work!  You log on to TomahawkNation.  Why?  Because you know our preview will be good enough to eat up two hours of clock watching.

First, though, here are 3 important announcements:

• Important Announcement 1:  Nolesblogger and I will be LIVE BLOGGING THE GAME!  This will happen in the "Open Game Thread" (posted Saturday at Midnight!)  This is interactive, and you can see me totally lose if it we play like garbage again, in real time!
• Important Announcement 2: Sign up (totally free and we do not send you stuff, even if you ask us to) for the Contest!
• Important Announcement 3: If you're not in Florida, make sure you know where the game is being shown:  Do you get the game? 

  If you don't get the game, either go to a sports bar, order ESPN Gameplan, or just stick right here with us! (see "Important Announcement #1)

  
  

The 'Noles are still smarting from their horrific loss to Wake Forest, a defeat that set offensive football back at least 50 years.  If you took your time machine back to the 1930's and showed football officials our tape, well, you would never have seen Montana hit Taylor, of Chris Weinke hit Peter Warrick, because the rules committee would have never approved the forward pass.  I reviewed our performance, play, by play, by painful, inept play.  We talked about how the 'Noles probably can't play worse on offense, how upperclassmen leaders need to hold on to the damn football, and how, through seven turnovers and less than 250 yards of offense, there were a few flickers of hope.  Did I throw up in my mouth when I hit play on the DVR?  Yes, but I own a tooth brush and this is a new week. 

Ideally, FSU will look to leave that dreadful offense behind.  They don't want to leave the entire game behind, though, because, to borrow a line from a gator blog (egads!), the "'Noles still have Mickey Andrews, our sunflower-seed chomping clipboard frog-god and defensive mafioso sending garnet-and-gold hitmen to kill quarterbacks at a startling clip."

In case you missed it, here are the links to everything we said in the Aftermath of the Wake Game:  My preliminary thoughts upon ariving home from Tallanasty, My reaction to the fans reaction,  Play-by-Play Review: 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, and The Report Card

It's now time to get totally geared up and informed about this Colorado game. 

Let's start with some tunes from a Jacksonville native as I let you in on some info about the River City.

In Memory of Elizabeth Reed

As a general rule, I am never going to pass up the chance to drop a 10 minute Skynyrd clip.  I break that rule for the Allman Brothers, live at Fillmore east.

I'm not from Jacksonville, though  I did date a girl from there once.  Let's let Wikipedia tell you a bit first.

Jacksonville is the largest city in the state of Florida—in terms of both area and population—and is the county seat of Duval County. Since 1968, as a result of the consolidation of the city and county government (and a corresponding expansion of the city limits to include almost the entire county), Jacksonville has been the largest city in land area in the contiguous United States.

In 2007, Jacksonville ranked as the United States' twelfth most populous city, with 794,555 residents.^[4] It is the principal city in the Greater Jacksonville Metropolitan Area, a region with a population of 1,300,823,^[5] and the fourth largest metropolitan area in the state, as of the 2006 Census Bureau estimates. Jacksonville is the third most populated city on the East Coast, after New York City and Philadelphia. (FSUncensored's Note:  That is a heck of a trivia question!)

About 25 miles (40 km) south of the Georgia border, Jacksonville is in the First Coast region of northeast Florida and is centered on the banks of the St. Johns River. The settlement that became Jacksonville was founded in 1791 as Cowford because of its location at a narrow point in the river where cattle once crossed. In 1822, a year after the United States acquired Florida from Spain, the city was renamed for the first military governor of the Florida Territory, General Andrew Jackson, who would later be elected President of the United States. In 2008, Jacksonville was ranked as the third cleanest city in the United States by Yahoo! Real Estate ^[6] and fourth best outdoor city by Forbes. ^[7]

Since we have some out-of-towners descending upon Jacksonville, they might be curious about Jacksonville's selection of ladies.  I don't post things on this blog that could get you in trouble at work, but if you are so inclined to see some local talent, I suggest firing up "The google" (not "the ebay"), and entering "Nichole Van Croft", "Jennifer Rovero", or "Tiffany Selby".  I know we have a female reader now, but I don't judge guys, so I can't offer much guidance in that area. 

Did you know that Jacksonville is the 14th Sweatiest city in America?  It's true!  All the more reason to enter our Know Your 'Noles Pick 3 Contest, the First Prize is a Dri-Fit Seminoles Polo!  Hopefully those Buffaloes will melt away in the River City.

Jacksonville is home to former 'Nole greats Sam Cowart, Edgar Bennet, Ron "Jingle Joints" Sellers, and Leon Washington

Know what other athlete is from Jacksonville?  Gator Gus Scott, whose lack of awareness allowed this play to happen:

Gus Scott: Fail.  Bobby:  Win.  Sam quiets 88K people and tells Police dog where to shove it.  Rix's helmet shielding us from his protective layer of hair gel.  Excellence.

Let's review what happened last year in Colorado:

Florida State held Colorado to -27 yards rushing in their own building, en route to a 16-6 win.  This game was really, really ugly, a common theme for the 'Noles as of late.  Mickey's boys were out for blood.

This Photo really tells the whole story:

Cody Hawkins threw for a bunch of yards between the 20's, but was constantly hit.

Florida State won the game because Nole defensive line absolutely owned the Colorado front.  Mickey called a pretty good game, completely choking off the run, and dictating where Hawkins would go with the ball.  When Hawkins got out of line and challenged Mickey, he payed dearly, via bone jarring hits and interceptions (2).  Florida State registered TEN tackles for loss.  Colorado ran the ball 23 times, and on 8 of those hand offs, they lost yards on 8 of those carries.  To say that Florida State owned first down is an understatement.  Hawkins threw for 300 yards, but did so on 53 tosses (less than 6 yards per attempt, which is horrible).  His QB rating?  111, pretty bad in college (NFL equivalent of 70.11).  I guarantee you that Mickey Andrews will gladly let Hawkins throw 53 passes in this game (especially considering the new play clock rules, which have caused teams to lose about 10 to 12 percent of their offensive downs so far this season).

On offense the 'Noles were extremely boring and ineffective.  They struggled to move the ball under Weatherford (his calling card).  They did not turn the ball over.  Not moving the ball and punting is a good way to beat average or lesser teams.  FSU put on one of the worse offensive displays ever-- by a team that would go on to win comfortably.

FSU won by playing amazing pressure defense, running the ball 35 times (They had only 57 total plays!), having no turnovers, and living off of the field position equalizer, Graham Gano.  Gano punted 8 times and averaged 47 yards NET PER PUNT!.

In year two of Jimbo, the former LSU OC decided he had enough of sub 120 QB ratings and immobile offense.  He went bold, benching Weatherford, burying the 5th year senior and assumed 4th year starter at third on the depth chart.

Jimbo did that because to win in the college game (as opposed to the pro game), against elite opponents, you can't just play scared and punt.  Points are important.  A good team will wear out any defense if given enough chances.  Fisher knows that.  He also knows that this team isn't ready to compete for a National Championship.  He decided to go with talent and youth.  He decided on Christian Ponder.  That worked great for the first two games, but Ponder and his counterpart, D'Vontrey Richardson, stunk up the joint for Wake. 

People screamed for Drew, while Fisher rebuffed them.  He is sticking with Ponder and will also play D'vo.  Their added mobility and talent will eventually blossom.  The offense wasn't going anywhere else in the meantime.  Did you know that the average age of our offensive line is NINETEEN!?  That is pretty remarkable.  Think about that number before trying to convince yourself that reinstating Drew is the right call.  Ponder's mobility is going to come in handy throughout the season behind this young unit. 

Jimbo says that the errors are easily correctable.  He's not implying that they will all be cleared up by this game, or that the offense will immediately become Texas Tech or Missouri, but he seems confident that he can turn it around.  Did you know that Chris Wienke threw 6 interceptions against NC State?  Did you know that Chollie Ward threw 16 in 4 games?  Give these kids time.  Starting Rix for 4 years didn't work because we had a guy who wasn't even qualified to be a "playstation all american" as his OC, and Starting Weatherford as a frosh didn't work because he had that same guy and isn't very talented.  Ponder is different.  Ponder has a lot of talent and a lot of smarts.  Ponder is an older 20 year old, who is pretty mature.  Don't pick up your pitchforks just because a kid plays one bad game.  We've already seen three years of horrifically inept performances.  Let's look and hope for hope and improvement. 

I talked with The Ralphie Report earlier this week.  I also did a lengthy Q&A for them, available at their site.  Our conversation follows.  I really enjoyed working with these guys.

1. What are your thoughts on Cody Hawkins? His size and arm strength are both well-below average. Are you high on Hawkins despite these limitations? How does CU compensate for these shortcomings?

I flip flop a lot on Cody Hawkins but I am usually a supporter. I do this game with people at work all the time where I do a comparison like, "would you rather have Jimmy Clausen or Cody Hawkins as your quarterback." Most of the time Hawkins gets the ruling over a good amount of sophomore quarterbacks. He just gets a bad wrap because he doesn’t have all the measurables and he plays in the Quarterback "Big" 12. You could probably substitute Ponder and Richardson in the Jimmy Clausen spot and Hawkins might be your choice. Yes, Hawkins may have a potential ceiling but right now Hawkins has a better grasp of the offense and is a much more consistent passer. His confidence and leadership help him overcome some of his shortcomings. He does throw usually one interception a game which needs to stop but you can never really blame Cody for a loss. He has a 70% completion percentage this year and 6TD’s so he has been pretty productive. Until he starts personally losing games for the Buffs, I will be supportive. Hawkins’ arm strength has improved over last year and I think he is a little more mobile than people give him credit for. He isn’t afraid to make the big play or lead a team which is promising for a young kid. Let’s face it, he has no where near the athletic ability that Ponder and Richardson have but he is much more consistent and usually isn’t the reason the Buffs lose.

 

2. I followed the Darrell Scott recruiting saga with interest. Granted, it's only three games into the season, but I had anticipated a bit more out of Scott by this point. Frankly, Scott has a looked a bit slower than I expected, and he has been outplayed by a relatively unheralded 5'6" freshman thus far. Is it true that Scott came to camp overweight and out of shape? Do you see Scott's breakout performance as coming any game now, or does he have more work to do in terms of learning the playbook/conditioning before this can happen?

I love this question. So I will start by saying Scott did report over weight because he was in summer school. He is now down to 205 from 220 so he is in his prime playing shape. In the West Virginia game, Scott had a dinged up knee and Stewart was a better match-up for the speed oriented defense in West Virginia. They ran a lot of mis-direction and screen passes that were aimed at catching WVU off balance. No one saw the runs against EWU where he had two of the most physically gifted runs I have ever seen. That being said, he is a freshman. A 19 year old kid in game three of his collegiate career that I guarantee will be special by the time he is done. He hasn’t got 20 carries in a game yet. A running back needs to get that groove in a game by getting a lot of carries. The first two games, the Buffs only ran out of the shotgun and never let him go outside. Last game they had a situational match up they exploited and were successful on. It was the first game that the Buffs went under center and ran in the "I" formation to show a different look. The Buffs are hiding a lot of the offense still, in my opinion for this FSU defense and for the Texas defense. Scott is the power back and FSU is the explosive defense, if the Buffs get some help up front, you will see all the physical tools Scott has to offer.

 

3.  Talk about this statement, if you will: Colorado freshman guard Max Tuioti-Mariner suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in non-contact drills in Tuesday's practice and will miss the remainder of the season. Tuioti-Mariner played in each of the first three games this season and recorded 16.5 knockdown blocks, the third most on the team. Colorado seems to be suffering from lack of depth according to reports in the Colorado area papers. There are 80 scholarship players on the current roster while the NCAA allows 85. Eleven of those scholarships are unable to help the program on game days. Four players have suffered season-ending injuries, six players are academically ineligible and one player is suspended indefinitely. That leaves 69 scholarship players and 12 of them are slated to red shirt this fall.  Fact?  Inaccurate?  How will Colorado deal with this?

Fact, I am sure but I can only name 4 academically ineligible but yes the depth factor is a little bit of a concern…on paper. Tuioti-Mariner is by far the biggest causality on the list. He was starting and really making strides as a freshman. Probably only three of these other players would have made an impact this year: WR Markques Simas (grades), CB Ben Burney (injury) and OG Mike Iltis (ACL injury). The Buffs have had four ACL tears so far this spring which is never an easy injury to recover from including LB Jon Major, who was a highly touted recruit that would have red shirted anyway. We also had WR Kendrick Celestine who left the team this week. He was our 5^th string wide-out but he has had academic problems too and never really found himself in the good graces of the coaching staff. Yes, the numbers look bad but the players that we are lining up with and, except for the offensive line; we have decent depth at each position. But please, no more injuries or suspensions or we will be in trouble.

 

4.  In the Win against WVU, the Buffs looks good on offense in the first half, but in the second half, the Mountaineers held Colorado to No points and 98 yards on 24 plays (4 Yards per Play).  What did you see from West Virginia, defensively, that led to the shutdown?  How will Colorado change things up to make sure this doesn't happen again?

It was a combination of a few things. I won’t give WVU coaches any credit on this one because you and I could have coached that team better. That being said the offensive production was not good. It’s like what I talked about in the first question. The Buffs get conservative for some reason. They had a couple of turnovers that killed drives and it seemed like the play calling was set up to keep the lead rather than expand on it. The solution is simple…keep the foot on the gas. We understand that if we don’t play to win against FSU for the whole game, we will lose as I don’t see CU surprising FSU as easily as they did WVU. I would like to see a little more confidence in Darrell Scott and Cody Hawkins. I would also like to see the Buffs incorporate TE Riar Geer more. One thing I know about blitzing, aggressive defenses like FSU is that the middle of field has holes in it. The Buffs have not gotten the tight ends in gear which is usually a staple of the Buffs offense.

 

5.  FSU recorded tackles for loss on 10 of Wake's 65 plays, for a total loss of 52 yards.  Will Colorado be able to consistently win the battle on first down?  Last year, Colorado had -27 yards rushing.  Is this offensive line and rushing attack significantly improved, about the same, or worse than last year?

Biggest concern for the game is this question and I am going to be honest with you, we don’t know if this line is better. We like to think so but the Buffs don’t play defenses like FSU that often. Obviously losing Tuioti-Mariner is huge for the rotation at guard but right now the Buffs have a great center in Daniel Sanders and two sophomores at tackle in Nate Solder and former five star recruit Ryan Miller. But have they seen speed like FSU…some of them last year and we saw what happened. This is a biggest barometer game for the offensive line for sure. I will tell you this…if we go for negative 27 again…it won’t be a good day for the Buffs. If you wouldn’t mind, I will revisit after the game!!!!

 

6.  Everette Brown will be hungry on Saturday.  Who will be saddled with the task of getting in front of him?  Does Colorado like to double guys with a back?  Does Colorado have a guy who can handle Everette (4 tackles for loss against Wake)?  If not, should we expect to see Colorado use one of the young backs to double him?  Are the young backs a liability in pass-pro? 

Man, oh man, all of these descriptions and questions are definitely making me rethink the Buffs ability to win this weekend. How about some FSU offensive questions…that will make me feel better? The question back to you is can anyone stop #99? I had nightmares about Mr. Brown. I am sure our left tackle Nate Solder is not sleeping well either. Yes, double teams will be in order with a chip from TE Riar Geer who is a big boy and a strong blocker. My guess is that you will see a lot of shot gun two RB sets with RB Demetrius Sumler in for blocking purposes when needed. He is the preferred blocker to Scott and Stewart. Solder is a good tackle but he is young and going against a beast will be a tough task. But I also think the Buffs have plenty of motivation to come out and play well because all we have been hearing about is that "they (FSU) are too big, too fast and too strong on defense." This is a prideful group. Don’t think they haven’t heard about the poor rushing effort last you against the ‘Noles last year. I expect Hawkins to have good game plan to at least maintain Everette from total domination. The match up in the trenches is why I am excited for this game, either the Buffs step up and match FSU’s intensity or FSU rolls over us. There is no middle ground. Either way, Buffs fans find out what this team is made of. I think that goes for FSU as well.

 

7.  3rd and 7, down by 4, 1:30 left in the game.  What play do the Buffs run? 

Shovel Pass. It’s four down territory. Get the aggressive ends to come up field, get a wham block from the receivers on the edge and flip it to Darrell Scott where Mr. Brown used to be. On fourth down if we don’t get it. Look for TE Riar Geer to vacate the area where the blitzing linebackers come from and make the catch.

 

8.  FSU's best offensive position is wide receiver.  Discuss, if you will, Cornerback depth.  Does Colorado have the horses to stick with these guys?  Do you expect Colorado to play a conservative zone in the hopes of making FSU drive slowly down the field, betting that they can't do so without self destructing?  The Buff's Opponent Adjusted Pass Efficiency Defense is ranked 80th in the Nation (Wake is 2nd), how will they handle FSU's depth?

The Buffs defensive backfield has been better than anticipated with #29 Cha’pelle Brown really stepping up and playing well both against the pass and supporting the run. But Cha’pelle is only 5’7". I am very skeptical about our other starting cornerback #6 Gardner McKay. He is taller but lanky and avoids contact too much. I like our backup’s #21 Anthony Wright and #3 Jimmy Smith better but both have been a little dinged up. Wright is 6’0" 195 lbs and Smith is 6’3" 200 lbs, both match up better with the size and strength of FSU’s wide receivers. The best aid to the cornerbacks will be a consistent pass rush led by LB #40 Brad Jones. I think both teams are unsure about their offensive lines. I expect CU to actually play pretty aggressive on the outside because I think CU will bring the house against these inexperienced quarterbacks. The last thing we want to do is let the quarterback get comfortable and gain any confidence.

 

9.  My guess on Colorado's game plan is this:  ball control short passing on offense, with some misdirection, trying to really avoid 3rd and long.  Safe on defense, not allowing the big play, and hope that FSU beats themselves. 

I am sitting watching USC vs. Oregon State right now and that is what I expect from the Buffs. Nothing fancy, no misdirection. You can’t dance against a team with this speed. A lot of controlled passes, screen passes and a straight at you running attack. Only throwing the ball deep to keep the defense honest but not making a habit out of it. The last thing the Buffs want is a speed rush off the end where FSU can just tee off on Cody Hawkins.  You hit the nail on the head regarding 3^rd down. The Buffs have struggled on first down this year and if the Buffs can get in 2^nd and 5 type situations, I love our offense because we now become a quick hitting team, where the ball is out of Hawkins’ hand quick and the Buffs keep the Seminoles honest. If the Buffs stay out of automatic pass situations on third down greater than 50% of the time, CU wins the game.

 

Okay, prediction time.  What happens at 3:30 on Saturday?  Why is this year different from last year?

First of all, is anyone confused at the 6 point line? I thought it would be 3 or 4 at the most but 6 seems like a lot of points. With what looks like a poor crowd turn out for this game, FSU’s 80,000 fan advantage at Doak will be cut in half in Jacksonville. I like that. A lot of keys to this game. Turnovers, 3^rd down success, pass rush and scoring early will do wonders for either of these offenses. I look for the Buffs to have a few early wrinkles, get up 10 points and ride out the win, 17 – 13. Going to be a sloppy, ugly drag out game. I am excited. Thanks for the opportunity to answers some questions for your members!

 

Some of these were actually sent in by readers!  Andy_Wooster is responsible for the first two.  I will say that I did a rather poor job of questioning this week.  I focused too much on one area (defensive line for FSU), and really needed to spread out the questions more.

A few words on penalties from earlier in the week:

As for the penalties, they really fell into four categories:

Talent Induced (3): 

I'll put the 2 holding penalties against the offensive line here, as well as the Pass Interference against the defensive back who we unaffectionately call "Michael Ray Garbage" (his real name is Garvin).  These guys were trying to get lucky after prom six months ago, and were being asked to block a bunch of 22 or 23 year old men (Redshirt Senior defensive linemen from Wake).  I don't think this is a coaching issue.  The defensive back who was called for PI will not be seeing the field much more now that the remaining suspended 'Noles are returning.

Mental Errors (2):

The False Start on the freshman OT and the 12 men on the field calls go here.  I think 1 false start in the game from a group with an average age of 19 years old is acceptable.  The 12 men on the field call aren't, and the coaches and players must share in the blame for this.  Since Mickey (Our DC) was yelling at an upperclassman defensive back, however, I think that DB needs most of the blame.

Inexperience (1):

Corey Surrency threw a really egregious chop block, way down field.  This is his first year playing college football, and I have to believe that the former flag football star didn't know any better.  This is a coaching issue, but it's not one that I would expect to occur again.  They will definitely instruct Surrency as to what is and is not a legal block. 

Rage/ Undisciplined (4):

The unsportsmanlike and unnecessary roughness calls go here.  This includes the offsetting shoving match that the kickoff team engaged in, the personal foul on Everette Brown, the personal foul on Preston Parker, and the Personal Foul late hit on Myron Rolle.  These ARE a point of concern.  My guess is that these were a result of 3 things: 1) a desire to get back at Wake.  FSU heard about how important revenging the loss against Wake was all week and they were too hyped up for this game.  2) The hyped up angle again.  If the two D1-AA games hurt FSU, it definitely showed here.  They watched as teams across the nation played 2 or 3 games, yet the 'Noles had yet to play a meaningful game.  These guys came out hyper aggressive, to their detriment.  3) Wake is a very smart team, and they effectively baited Brown and Parker into these penalties.  As upperclassmen leaders, these guys need to set the example and not fall for the bait.

Will this situation improve?  Yes, because of situation and coaching, but only to an extent.  The 'Noles have always played with an attitude.  FSU didn't have an outrageous amount of personal fouls last year though, and I think they can keep the number to two or less per game from here on out.  This team is much more talented than the squads from the past few seasons, and selfish mental errors will land a player on the bench, with a similarly talented player filling his spot on the field.

Bad Call(s) (2):

The refs had two really costly and blatantly wrong personal foul calls in this game against FSU (and at least one against Wake, as the Zebra's were a bit flag happy, calling 20 penalties).  First, Surrency was flagged for an illegal block after being pushed into a Wake player and falling down. Second, Markus White (awesome newcomer and National JUCO Defensive POY) sacked Skinner by the front of the jersey.  The referee was behind skinner and didn't see the play very well, yet called an extremely costly face mask penalty against White.  Sometimes these things do happen, and the refs are adjusting to the new rules as well, but it is very questionable if White even touched Skinner's mask, much less pulled on it. 

Obviously, coaching can't do much about that.

Aggressiveness (1): E Brown offside

Mickey Andrews is okay with a limited amount of "aggression penalties", which he defines as guys attempting to make a play.  The FSU defensive line has always been ridiculously quick off the ball, and in addition to having great athletes on the edge, anticipating the snap count is another reason why.

I'm sure that is more than you wanted on penalties.  Sorry about that.

It's now time for The Rubric! 

I am combining the Rubric with my my predictions this week.  If it goes well, I will do it this way from now on. 

When the 'Noles have the ball. 

The 'Nole offense was pitiful against Wake last week, and really didn't have much success against Colorado last year.  Why then, do I look for change?  Famialiarity and adjustments.  Every game that goes by is another where Christian becomes more familiar with the offense.  Every game that goes by is another where Jimbo becomes more in tune with Christian's game.  Look to the Clemson game last year, where guys couldn't line up correctly, we couldn't block anyone, and Drew couldn't hit receivers more than 10 yards downfield.  Heck, Frosh AA guard Rodney Hudson was pulled in this game and cussed on National Television.  Things got better after the Clemson game, for most players.

This week I look for improvement.  This is in part because it would be hard for FSU to have that many unforced errors again, in part because Wake Forest's defense is a heck of a lot better than the defenders Colorado will bring (Wake is 2nd in the nation in OAPED, Colorado is 80th, Wake has several first round types on defense, and Colorado has only one with a legit shot of being drafted any time soon), in part because the players will be slightly less out of control emotionally for this game than they were the wake game, and in part because of the continued maturation and understanding of Ponder, Fisher, and the OLine.  Run on sentence, anyone? 

Even the worst offenses in football don't commit 7 turnovers in a game.  Let's face it, there was an element of bad luck with those turnovers.  I broke it down all week (see links above), and I don't think we see anything close to approaching that total.  Antone has never been a fumbler.  Parker has, but he's not going to be playing much running back anymore.  I don't think we will see anything that will make me say anything like this:

Ponder didn't make a good read here, but he didn't have much to work with. The ball was late and should not have been thrown, but this was GARBAGE on the part of Fisher.  I thought he called an average game, balancing good with bad.  This was the bad.  To put a first-year starting QB in a position where he has to make an 18 yard throw, with 2:38 on the clock, from his own 21, with a horrendously young OLine, against an ultra veteran defense, is just not acceptable! 

Fisher's comment  about this sequence was "And I take blame for that a little bit myself because I put him in a situation probably on third-and-18, we were trying to make some thing happen. Probably should have just ran the ball and went on. That's partly my fault too. That's one I wish I would have had back."  Puh-lease.  A little bit on yourself?  This is solely on your shoulders.  Jimbo, I'm a huge fan, but when you skirt your responsibilities, you sound like the delusional Bowden during the nepotism years.  A coach shouldn't blame a player when the coach put the player in a bad spot.

Look for Jimbo to give Ponder some easier stuff to start this game with.  Look for dumps to Antone, and the return of the bubble screen.  Ponder is good friends with Caz Piurowski, so look for a safety valve buddy type connection early.  Once they establish a bit of a rhythm, expect the deep balls to fly.  I don't think Colorado can play their corners on an island.

Neither does Christian Ponder, as played by Andrew Carter

BH: What concerns you about Colorado’s defense after studying it?
CP: "We’re going to have to be very patient. They play pretty soft in that cover 2 and everything, so they’re really going to force us to be disciplined and take what they give us. It’s really going to be a challenge to me as a quarterback. And I got to stay patient and take check downs and not force anything."

The chat above reveals their concern over the secondary.  Ponder is going to need to hit his hot reads, find his underneath stuff (which should be available early), and tuck the ball when necessary, to keep the chains moving.  The pass protection was about what I expected going into the game last week.  If Colorado does blitz, and many think they will, Ponder must hit his hot routes.  If Ponder consistently gets the ball in the hands of his hot guys, Colorado will stop blitzing.  The single coverage stuff down the field should open up at some point, and when it does, FSU will fire.  FSU's passing attack will think safety first, comfort second, and bombs third.  Colorado's pass defense isn't anywhere near as good as Wake's, and I take comfort in that.    The "A" Line for the Seminole QB's: 8.0 YARDS/ ATTEMPT and a 2-1 TD/ Int ratio.

The "A" line for the Seminole Receivers: No more than 2 drops, zero fumbles, two plays with 15+ YAC, and no more than 1 penalty (I do  not count offensive pass interference here, for grading purposes).  In film review, I reserve the right to deduct points for horrible route running or for general laziness.

Florida State should also see some improvement in the running game.  Why?  Increased cohesiveness from the offensive line, a greater commitment to the run, less flukish fumbles, the return of TE Caz Piurowski, and a lesser quality opponent.  Colorado has an excellent DT in Hyppolite (projected 4th to 6th round draft choice), but not a whole lot else.  You know that Trickett coached these guys hard this week, and they should be more used to the speed of the college game (D1 game here, folks).  I would prefer to see a good interior lineman as opposed to a good edge lineman, because FSU is better equipped to handle the interior guy with the likes of Hudsona and McMahon.  Look for FSU to run the stretch play more in this game, as out tackles shouldn't struggle quite as much with the Buff's ends as they did with Wake's veteran ends.  Caz should also help to get a good seal on the edge, as he is a good blocker and fits very nicely into the scheme.  Do not expect FSU to dominate the middle of the line of scrimmage as their DT is a legit player.  Look for FSU to go low on him, early and often.  Ooh, and one more thing; we very well could have a new starter at one of the tackle spots.  I've hidden the answer in this preview.  Antone should have a decent day running and a really good day catching.  He had a nice run against Colorado last year, caught on still film here:

Freshman Jermaine Thomas is from Jacksonville, runs with a really natural feel, and will get the ball this week.  Let's hope he balls out for the home crowd.

The other aspect of the 'Nole running game, and pay attention because this is new this year, is the running quarterback.  Pat White ripped Colorado, as he does everyone.  Hey crazy West Virginia fans, DO NOT EMAIL ME.  I AM NOT SAYING OUR QB'S CAN RUN LIKE PAT WHITE.  (They can play baseball without making racist accusations, and can um, actually throw though.)  The added dimension of the QB run could give Colorado some trouble in this game.  FSU is a load to prepare for because they've shown a lot of different looks:  Five Wide spread, bunch, double tight, a lot of twins-I, option, designed QB off tackles, the screen game, etc.  The element of the QB as a playmaker is always tough to account for.  The "A" line for the running game (including sacks, but not including kneeldowns):  80% of carries gain 2 or more yards, no more than BAD blitz pickup miss and no more than 1 fumble

The "A" line for the offensive line: No more than 3 penalties, no more than 1 bad snap (let's see what that AA status really means, McMahon),  and no horrible missed blocks (subjective).  

General Offensive Goals: 6YPP, no personal foul late hits or unnecessary roughness, 60+% TD's in the red zone, 100% scoring in the red zone.

When the Buffaloes have the ball

I am going to keep this relatively short. 

Colorado need to think safety first on offense, as their offensive line was absolutely embarrassed last year.  10 tackles for loss guys?  Really?  Colorado does not have the personnel on offense to threaten the 'Noles deep.  They haven't been able to consistently run the ball between the tackles.

The Buffs do run an efficient offense, incorporating a lot of high percentage throws in the short and intermediate range.  Colorado also has had great success running to the outside with their little guy, Stewart.   Humor me for a second and assume that, for the purposes of this preview, the 'Noles won't turn the ball over on half of their possessions again.  With that assumption out of the way, allow me to guess at something:  outside runs without the threat of the inside game, and short passing without the threat of the deep ball, will not be enough to score winning points on this defense.  Do you think Colorado can get the corner consistently, if FSU doesn't have to respect the inside game?  We know that this FSU team tackles really really well, perhaps the best since the Ernie Sims years  Because of that, Colorado is unlikely to go crazy with the yards after the catch on the short stuff.

Let's look at some match-ups to see where Colorado can find its edge, if at all.

Colorado's offensive line is still a huge question mark.  They're not like FSU, in that they don't average 19 years of age, but they are still a question mark.  An obvious key in this game will be winning first down.  If Colorado is at 2nd and 8 or less, that is a win for the Buffs.  If they aren't, that is a win for the 'Noles.  I do think Colorado will struggle against this FSU front.  Bob from the Ralphie report discussed this in the huge interview above.  If you have to use your TE's and LB's to constantly pass protect, throwing options are limited.  With that said, I'll be very happy if  FSU can achieve WINS (defined as 2nd and 9 or worse) on 40% or more of Colorado's first downs, and I will be well on my way to giving the front 7 an A.  Budd Thacker and new returnee,  fresh from appreciating music Justin Mincey, need to have a big game from the tackle spots.  I think Colorado has two young tackles who I would rate as "average to above average", two guards who are a bigtime question mark, and a very good, experienced center.  Thacker, Mincey, and Stewart must dominate Colorado's guards.  If they do, FSU can rack this team.  I don't think Colorado realizes how good these guys are in the middle.  If FSU lays an egg in the middle, highly touted RB Dorrell Scott might run wild.  The kid is an obvious talent, and is waiting to have his breakout game.  The interview indicated that they will come right at us, and I think Mincey, Thacker, and Derek Nicholson say bring it on.

Additionally, FSU returns three key starters to an already stout unit.  LB Dakota Watson is the clear freak athlete of the team, DT Justin Mincey has the chance to make a Ricky Jean- Francois splash (LSU), and Patrick Robinson is the best player we have in the back 4.  Getting back 3 starters on an already sick defense?  I don't see Colorado scoring a whole lot here.

Chantrant points out, in their Interview that D1-AA Eastern Washington more than held their own against Colorado, without blitzing.  I think we should try that as well.  I bet FSU can wreak havoc without too much blitzing. 

Why is not blitzing too much important in this game?  Because of the SCREEN GAME.  Colorado has the ability to be an excellent screen team.  I am going to be really pissed off if we get caught in an unnecessary monster blitz and are burned by a screen.  I do think FSU can handle Colorado's wideouts (their best threat failed a summer course and can't play this year).  Our backers can probably cover their backs well enough.  We're a very sound tackling team.  The one way I see us getting seriously burned is the screen and delay game.

Extra goals for the defense (To Earn the A): No more than two plays allowed of 30+ yards, an Opponent QB rating of less than 135, ZERO late hit-out of bounds penalties (roughing the QB is fine by me), an opponent red-zone TD % of less than 40%, Less than 6 yards per play allowed, no more than 10 missed tackles, no scores off of a sudden change, and at least two forced turnovers.

Bonus points if you can elicit a reaction from Cody Hawkins that is anywhere close to this:

Cody Hawkins, Everette wants to know: do you want?

I think FSU has one excellent long scoring drive, one big play touchdown, one field goal off of a moderate length drive, one touchdown either on Defense, Special teams, or as a direct result of a short field created by a turnover, and one field goal off of a short field created by a turnover or special teams play,  for a total or 27 points.  That's an offensive explosion compared to the Wake showing,

I think FSU will have two or fewer turnovers (down from 7).  From those, Colorado can probably get 10 points.  I'll also say that they can put together one long Touchdown drive.  Colorado needs to be able to run the ball between the tackles, catch FSU in poorly times blitzes with draws and screens, and work the play-action game to have a legitimate shot to win.  If FSU can limit them to the short and intermediate passing game, while funneling everything outside, it will be a long day for Hawkins. 

Everyone has written this team off and left them for dead.  Well I remember when everyone thought the Undertaker was dead, and Kane thought he could waltz over the dead man.

Listen to the 3:99 Mark. 

"Oh My God! Kane was wrong, J.R.  He's not dead!  Kane thought he was dead!!  My God!, what an experience, sitting here in the Garden, at Wrestlemania XX!  And just experiencing the arrival, the return of the dead man, and Kane is obviously beside himself!  This is not what Kane wanted to see!  No, the dead man lives!  He lives, J.R. The dead man, and Paul Bearer live, and remember, the Undertaker has never lost at Wrestlemania!  He's eleven, and 0!  Kane still can't believe it.  Kane thought they buried that man!

Now, take out The King and Jim Ross (J.R.), and insert Ron Franklin and Bob Davie. Substitute "Colorado", for "Kane".  Plug in "Alltell Stadium" for "The Garden" (horrible trade, I know).  Sawp "River City Showdown" for "Wrestlemania".  Scratch "dead man", and fill in "Seminoles."  White out "Paul Bearer" and edit in "Jimbo Fisher.",  bookend "he" with a "t" and a "y", respectively, and change the other grammar stuff, so that it reads:

""Oh My God! Colorado was wrong, Ron!.  They're not dead!  Colorado thought they were dead!!  My God!, what an experience, sitting here in Alltell Stadium, at The River City Showdown!!  And just experiencing the arrival, the return of the Seminoles.  And Colorado is obviously beside itself!  This is not what Colorado wanted to see!  No, the Seminoles live!  They live, Ron!. The Seminoles, and Bobby Bowden live, and remember, the Seminoles are 10-1 alltime in  Jacksonville!  They're  Ten and one!!  Colorado still can't believe it.  Colorado  thought they buried the 'Noles!

There, much better.  27-17, NOLES.  Now try to get in a half days work on a Friday.  GO NOLES!

Late Add:  I'm not sure where to put this, but Scalpem reviewed  the considerable culinary talents of one Colorado kicker, Matt DiLallo (whose name sounds familiar, maybe to that deceased USC kicker?)  Anyways, it's a funny post.