FanPost

FSU Tournament Tracker 2/22 Projection: IN

02/22- 02/28

What a week!  Last Monday I wrote:

As for this week, we need to win one game. That's it.  Just one. 

KenPom gives us a 50% chance to beat Miami at home and a 41% chance to beat Virginia Tech.  We have about a 20% chance to win both, a 30% chance to lose both, and a 50% chance to win 1 of the two games.

Mission accomplished.  The 'Noles didn't win one game.  They won two, taking down Miami on Wednesday night and squeaking by Virginia Tech on Saturday.  The 'Noles now sit at 21-6 overall (8-4 ACC).  Florida State is 2nd in the ACC!!

                        Overall  Conf
W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk AdjT/Rnk SOS/Rnk NCSOS/Rnk

North Carolina 24-3 10-3 .9733/2 123.2/2 90.1/21 75.1/4 .7535/10 .5828/109
Florida St. 21-6 8-4 .8626/47 103.7/127 88.4/11 67.4/137 .7173/27 .5256/153
Duke 21-5 7-4 .9645/5 114.9/18 86.2/7 68.7/89 .7331/17 .6065/89
Clemson 21-4 7-4 .9452/13 116.5/9 90.9/25 69.1/68 .6506/63 .4097/259
Wake Forest 20-4 7-4 .9381/19 110.5/48 87.2/8 74.1/7 .6465/68 .3866/274
Boston College 19-9 7-6 .8207/59 114.0/24 99.9/150 67.1/149 .6757/47 .3901/273
Maryland 17-9 6-6 .8122/66 106.6/88 93.8/54 68.9/77 .7044/33 .4578/218
Virginia Tech 16-10 6-6 .7804/77 110.1/53 98.6/121 66.3/182 .6721/49 .4508/227
North Carolina St. 15-10 5-7 .7985/71 112.1/38 99.4/142 64.9/242 .6090/90 .2476/340
Miami FL 16-10 5-8 .9042/29 113.9/25 93.7/52 65.2/227 .7185/26 .4051/262
Virginia 9-14 3-9 .7091/92 103.8/126 96.0/74 68.6/95 .7387/14 .4513/226
Georgia Tech 10-15 1-11 .6642/101 97.2/231 91.6/32 71.7/22 .6506/64 .3620/288

Nobody saw the 'Noles sitting in 2nd place through February.  Now, Wake or Duke will tie us tomorrow night, and they hold the tie-breaker, but for one night...  Pomeroy has us as the 5th best ACC team and thinks we've been a little lucky so far.  In fact, we're the 12th luckiest team in the nation.  That doesn't matter.  We won't be giving back any of those close wins. 

Here are the numbers for the 47th best team in the nation.:

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency : 99.8 (196) 92.9 ( 24)
Adj Efficiency : 103.7 (127) 88.4 ( 11)

Effective FG% : 48.3 (194) 44.2 ( 20)
Turnover Pct. : 22.6 (274) 23.2 ( 43)
Off. Rebound% : 35.1 ( 93) 35.3 (266)
Free Throw Rate: 41.8 ( 43) 36.1 (168)

3-Point FG% : 32.8 (230) 31.7 ( 47)
2-Point FG% : 47.9 (175) 42.4 ( 19)
Free Throw Pct.: 72.0 ( 67) 68.2 (131)
Block Pct. : 7.7 ( 98) 16.1 ( 8)
Steal Pct. : 10.0 (190) 12.9 ( 16)

3PA/FGA : 34.2 (131) 35.4 (257)
A/FGM : 52.7 (209) 46.5 ( 19)

That offensive number has been creeping up while the defense stays insanely good.  The turnover numbers are improving as well, which is excellent.  A concern:  we're getting lazy feet and fouling too much.

Here's this week's slate and the team (s) we need to win in Bold

02/22/09 Clemson @ Georgia Tech Raycom
  Wake Forest @ Duke FSN
02/24/09 Florida State @ Boston College ESPNU
02/25/09 Virginia Tech @ Clemson ESPN2
  Duke @ Maryland ESPN
02/26/09
NC State @ Wake Forest Raycom
 02/28/09 Clemson @ Florida State Raycom
  Wake Forest @ Virginia Raycom
  Duke @ Virginia Tech ABC

We have two tough games this week and Kenpom gives us a 17.25% chance to win both, a 48.53% chance to win one, and a 34.25% chance to lose both games. 

Guess what?  To get in to the tournament, it doesn't matter.  FSU is in, fo the first time in over 10 years, and that's a good thing.  If this team does win both, however, which is possible... you could be looking at a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA tourney.  With that in mind, the goal for this week is to win one game and get to 9-5 in conference.  A 10-6 finish probably gets this team a bye in the ACC tournament. 

Read that last sentence.  

This will be the official fanpost where we discuss the chances of our Seminoles making the tournament.  I've decided to start this because it will help to keep the fanpost section uncluttered.  For instance, we currently have 4 Bowden threads in the fanpost sidebar.  Most of them say something similar.  I love the participation, but sometimes things get repetitive.

Can someone "rec" this so it gets on the preferred list?  I plan to update 2x per week.

In this thread, we can discuss:

  • What the Noles must do to make the big dance
  • Optimal outcomes of games playes by our opponents
  • What the experts are saying
  • Anything NCAA Tournament related

 

02/16/09- 02/22-09

The 'Noles ended the week on a disappointing note but it is important for FSU fans to remember that we did achieve our goal of winning one game (via defeating Virginia).  The 'Noles are now 6-4 in conference play, which is exactly where we wanted to be after last week.

As of 02/16, we are not ranked, but we are still receiving votes.  The 'Noles are still rated #52 in the Pomeroy ratings.

                      Offense               Defense
Raw Efficiency : 98.7 (215) 92.2 ( 21)
Adj Efficiency : 102.2 (151) 88.0 ( 12)

Effective FG% : 48.1 (202) 43.8 ( 12)
Turnover Pct. : 23.3 (295) 23.5 ( 33)
Off. Rebound% : 36.0 ( 71) 35.6 (276)
Free Throw Rate: 41.7 ( 45) 35.9 (158)

3-Point FG% : 32.5 (235) 30.9 ( 28)
2-Point FG% : 47.8 (176) 42.4 ( 19)
Free Throw Pct.: 70.7 (107) 68.2 (139)
Block Pct. : 7.2 ( 63) 16.3 ( 8)
Steal Pct. : 10.4 (236) 13.2 ( 15)

3PA/FGA : 33.7 (150) 35.0 (247)
A/FGM : 53.0 (203) 45.9 ( 16)

A top 12 defense and an offense outside the top 150.  We are scrappy and resourceful.  FSU could really do a better job with that defensive rebounding number-- a jump from 276th to even 225th would be huge.  The defensive free throw number is starting to trouble me as well.  It seems our defense is becoming more undisciplined as the season wears on.  Leonard Hamilton needs to whip these guys in practice and get their heads back on straight. 

As for the offense, we're still horrible.  We have the worst offense of any team in contention for an at-large bid.  The 'Noles need to stop shooting so man 3 point shots and focus their efforts on getting the ball inside, crashing the glass, and getting to the line.  We are a horrible shooting team and our turnover numbers are still atrocious as Toney can't run the offense as a shooting guard.

Bracketology projects the 'Noles as an 8 seed, but still very comfortably in.  Sports Illustrated Projects the 'Noles as a 5 seed, which is probably too high.  Both ESPN and Sports Illustrated project 8 ACC teams in the tournament.  Interestingly, I heard an ESPN Expert, Joe Lunardi, say that Miami is in right now at 4-7 in conference because of their close losses.

02/17/09 Maryland @ Clemson ESPN2
02/18/09 Miami @ Florida State ESPNU
  Virginia Tech @ Virginia RAYCOM
02/19/09 Duke @ St. John's ESPN
02/21/09 Boston College @ Miami RSN
  North Carolina @ Maryland ABC
  Florida State @ Virginia Tech RSN
02/22/09 Clemson @ Georgia Tech Raycom

NOTE:  I am slightly uncertain as to who we want to win between BC and Miami.

As for this week, we need to win one game. That's it.  Just one. 

KenPom gives us a 50% chance to beat Miami at home and a 41% chance to beat Virginia Tech.  We have about a 20% chance to win both, a 30% chance to lose both, and a 50% chance to win 1 of the two games. 

FSU really needs to get to 7-5 in the conference this week.  It will be an interesting week and I look forward to two great discussions, starting Wednesday night.

At a minimum, the Noles will need to get 7 ACC wins (7-9) to go along with our 13-2 out of conference record.  

2/09- 2/15

What a week!  I don't think you can find a better week for FSU basketball than the week gone by.  The wins over GTech and Clemson were huge.  In fact, ESPN named FSU Team of the Week.  If the season ended today, FSU would be a lock for the tournament.  Joe Lunardi's Bracketology has the Noles as a #9 seed, and nowhere close to the bubble.  In fact, he has 8 ACC teams in the tourney.  The ACC is clearly the best conference, with 8 of 12 teams in, as opposed to only 8 of 16 Big East teams.    As a side note, he has us playing Arizona State, a team that is a bad matchup for us. 

The Noles start the week as the #52 team in the Pomeroy Ratings.  He now projects us to go 22-9 Overall and 9-7 in the ACC.  That finish would make us an 8 seed in the tourney.  As of now, we are more likely to finish 9-7 than 7-9, though 7-9 could still get the 'Noles in.  Kenpom calls us the 6th best team in the ACC, and projects us to finish 9-7, along with BC, ahead of VT and Miami who are projected to go 8-8.   The key is to win the games we should win.  We are ahead of the pace and do not need to score any more upsets to reach the tournament.

The defensive rebounding and the turnovers are still a huge problem, but the 'Noles formula is to play suffocating defense, pick up cheap points, get to the line, and frustrate the heck out of their opponent. 

This week's key games (with the team we want to win in Bold)

02/10/09 Virginia @ Florida State
  Clemson @ Boston College
02/11/09 Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech
02/14/09
Florida State @ Wake Forest
  Virginia Tech @ Maryland
  Duke @ Boston College
  North Carolina @ Miami

This week's goal is to go 1-1 and end up at 6-4 in conference play.  Remember that our previous goal was to get to 5-5.  We are ahead of pace.  This week could really hurt Boston College, as they will probably be underdogs at home, twice.

FSU's 5 losses have come to the teams ranked 63rd, 4th, 1st, 26th, and 3rd in the ratings.  Quality losses do matter a bit at tournament time.

The most important thing for this team to do is stay healthy.  Our depth is really paying off and we can't afford to lose it.  This team is IN unless something big happens.

1/26-2/1

1/28:  Miami lost @ NCST last night and BC won @ Maryland. 

                        Overall  Conf
W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk

Duke 18-1 5-0 .9865/1 118.0/6 81.2/2
Virginia Tech 14-5 4-1 .8254/61 108.4/70 94.7/67
Wake Forest 16-1 3-1 .9574/11 110.3/47 84.2/5
North Carolina 17-2 3-2 .9774/2 120.4/3 86.7/11
Clemson 17-2 3-2 .9272/22 112.8/27 90.4/30
Florida St. 16-4 3-2 .8386/57 101.7/145 88.1/18
Boston College 16-6 4-3 .8051/69 111.8/32 98.8/135
Miami FL 14-6 3-4 .8769/42 113.8/23 95.9/81
Maryland 13-7 2-4 .7735/83 102.1/141 91.7/36
North Carolina St. 11-7 2-4 .7303/89 108.7/65 99.7/149
Virginia 7-9 1-4 .7050/99 105.3/100 97.6/112
Georgia Tech 9-10 0-6 .6701/104 97.8/216 91.9/38

As of 1/28, Kenpom projects:

VT 9-7 (4-1 currently)
FSU 8-8 (3-2)
BOSTON COLLEGE 8-8 (4-3)
MIAMI 7-9 (3-4)

Guess what folks... we're not getting 8 ACC teams in.  FSU now looks like they must finish at 8-8 in the conference.  FSU and VT really can make or break some ground in the next two weeks as they have some ground to make up.

I personally think FSU will get to 5-4 (should win v. GT and v. UVA, lose to UNC and @ Clemson).  At that point, we'd need to win 3 of 5: v. Miami, @ VT, @ BC, v. CLEM, and v. VT.   I don't see us winning @ Wake or @ Duke.

If the 'Noles take care of business tonight, all bets are off.

 

1/26:  The Noles sit at 3-2 in conference play, well ahead of the pace many thought they would be through 5 games.  This past week was pretty good for the Noles, as FSU went 1-1, slightly better than what the experts had us doing (we had a better chance to lose both than win one or both). 

Ken Pomeroy now has the 'Noles as the 58th best team in America, which is good for 6th in the ACC.  He projects FSU to finish at 8-8 in conference, tied with Virginia Tech, for 6th/7th place.  VTech is rated 72nd overall.  FSU's RPI is skyrocketing and last I checked the 'Noles were 20th Nationally in RPI.

In the latest Bracketology, the 'Noles are a 10 seed in the Minneapolis Region and has the ACC with 7 teams in.

Opponent Watch:  In the important wins category, UF lost by one to South Carolina and crushed Vanderbilt, both on the road.  That's probably a wash, and the 'Noles win over UF continues to look impressive.  Cal had a bad loss to Oregon State but did beat Oregon to salvage an otherwise poor week.  Cincinnati continues to be a fairly worthless win as they lost to providence and then beat St. Johns.  On the flip side of the coin, some of our losses don't look quite as bad.  Northwestern beat Michigan State in East Lansing and then proceeded to lose to the lesser of the Michigan Schools, falling to thew Wolverines.  That's a good week for Northwestern, who looks like a tournament team.  Pittsburgh had a monster week as they pounded Syracuse at home and West Virginia on the road (ranked teams). 

This week, the 'Noles play only one game:  North Carolina, at home.  Make sure to get your questions in for the UNC expert!

Here are the updated ACC standings:

                        Overall  Conf
W-L W-L Pomeroy/Rnk AdjO/Rnk AdjD/Rnk

Duke 18-1 5-0 .9866/1 118.1/6 81.3/2
Virginia Tech 14-5 4-1 .8246/62 108.5/68 94.8/67
Wake Forest 16-1 3-1 .9574/11 110.4/47 84.2/5
North Carolina 17-2 3-2 .9776/2 120.4/3 86.7/12
Clemson 17-2 3-2 .9266/22 112.9/27 90.5/31
Florida St. 16-4 3-2 .8403/58 101.8/145 88.1/18
Miami FL 14-5 3-3 .8848/39 113.4/23 95.0/70
Boston College 15-6 3-3 .7827/79 111.1/39 99.3/145
Maryland 13-6 2-3 .7997/71 102.6/139 90.9/33
North Carolina St. 10-7 1-4 .7168/96 107.6/76 99.3/144
Virginia 7-9 1-4 .7089/98 105.4/98 97.5/115
Georgia Tech 9-10 0-6 .6696/103 97.7/220 91.9/39

The general consensus is that Duke, Wake, UNC, and Clemson will take the top 4 spots, probably in that order.  Most would have put Miami into the 5th slot before last night's events (see below).  Things have changed, however.

We have a new foe.   VTech beat Miami last night.  Virginia Tech now sits at 4-1 in ACC play and Pomeroy predicts them to go 9-7 in conference, giving them the 5th spot.  Miami is projected to go 8-8, as is FSU.  

Our rooting interests are now pretty clear.  We need to root against VTech, Miami, and Boston College. 

This week, there are many important ACC games:

01/27/09 Miami @ NC State NEED:  NCState
ESPNU
  Boston College @ Maryland Maryland
ESPN2
01/29/09 Clemson @ Virginia Tech Clemson
ESPN/ESPN2
  Miami @ Maryland Maryland
Raycom
  Virginia Tech @ Boston College Boston College
Raycom

This is a big week for the 'Noles.  FSU will probably lose to UNC and drop to 3-3 in the conference.  That's fine as we'd still be ahead of schedule, but it's very important for Miami and VTech to drop at least one game a piece.  They play three of their four games on the road and I think that's likely.

Can the ACC now get in 7 ACC teams? A week ago I would have said no way, but I now think it is very possible.  7-9 probably will no longer get it done for the Noles. 

Bracketology available later today, and I'll post it then. 

Lingering concerns for the 'Noles?  Turning the ball over and not rebounding:

 

 

1/18- 1/24

1/22:  We had a tough loss last night as Miami is a better team than we are and showed why their offense is so good.  We had one of our better offensive games of the year and by far our worst defensive game. 

This was a very bad night overall, however, as this week is shaping up to be as bad as last week was good.

1/20 BC @ GT (GT).  BC Won.
UVA @ MD (UVA) MD Won
NCST @ DUKE (Duke) Duke Won

1/21 VT @ Wake (Wake)  VT Won

Northwestern BEAT #7 Michigan State, helping our non conference slate!

Ken Pomeroy doesn't see last night's loss as a bad loss and actually moved us up from #63 to #62. 

What does hurt, however, is that as opposed to last week when Pomeroy projected us as the only 7-9 ACC team, he now projects that us, BC, and Maryland will all go 7-9. 

 

 

1/19: 

After a week where the Noles went 2-0 in the ACC and the Noles out of conference opponents played very well, the Noles are ahead of where most thought they would be and the experts notices:

Joe Lunardi has us as a 10 seed (solidly in) in his latest Bracketology.  We're not even in the "last four in" category.

Jim Young says we look like a tournament team:

I don't want to get your hopes up Seminoles fans, but this is starting to look like an NCAA Tournament-worthy team. We already know FSU has done the work it needed during its non-conference schedule, knocking off Cal, Florida and Western Kentucky. Now the Seminoles are winning games like this one, in which they rebounded in overtime after frittering away an 11-point lead. It wasn't pretty, but it's the kind of win FSU wasn't getting in previous seasons, when it kept coming up just short of the NCAA Tournament.

 

1/18: KenPomeroy now projects us as the only 7-9 ACC team, the first time this year he has projected us to hold the 6th spot all to ourselves.  He still says Maryland is a better team, however, and this new projection is based mostly on some optimal outcomes in the games of the past week.  We could be ranked when the polls debut on Monday.

Northwestern beat 18th ranked Minnesota, 74-63, in what was an upset in ranking only, as Northwestern was favored. 

FSU has lost 3 games to opponents whose combined records are 41-8 (Northwestern at 9-6 drags it down).

Key Games for this week (team we need to win in parenthesis)

1/20
BC @ GT (GT)
UVA @ MD (UVA)
NCST @ DUKE (Duke)

1/21
VT @ Wake (Wake)
FSU @ Miami (important test but not essential for our tournament hopes)

1/24
MD @ DUKE (Duke)
NCST @ BC (I think NCST, since BC has a signature win, but this is largely irrelevant)
FSU @ UVA (important game for the Noles, one of our rare legit chances to win a road game)

 

1/18: KenPomeroy now projects us as the only 7-9 ACC team, the first time this year he has projected us to hold the 6th spot all to ourselves.  He still says Maryland is a better team, however, and this new projection is based mostly on some optimal outcomes in the games of the past week.  We could be ranked when the polls debut on Monday.

Northwestern beat 18th ranked Minnesota, 74-63, in what was an upset in ranking only, as Northwestern was favored. 

FSU has lost 3 games to opponents whose combined records are 41-8 (Northwestern at 9-6 drags it down).

1.11-1.17

Games: @ NCST (Win 78-65), v. Maryland (Win 76-73 OT)

1/17: FSU defeats Maryland 76-73 in an overtime game that we should probably be mad most committee members didn't get on their cable.

FSU is now 2-1 in the ACC.  Kenpom thought we would be 1.02- 1.98 so far (.03 for Duke, .38 for NCST and .61 for Maryland).  We need to win 5 of our last 13 ACC games to have a shot.  Kenpom says we will win 5.09 of them (favoring us in three).  Still much work to be done.

1/15 Last night was perfect as we achieved all of the optimal outcomes in our opponents games.  I have to think we are IN.

1/14:  Pomeroy moved us up from 74th nationally to 65th.  He considers us the 7th best team in the ACC, moving us ahead of Boston College.  He moved his win projection from 18-13 (5-11) to 20-11 (7-9).  

1/13: The Noles defeated the NC State Wolfpack, 78-65 for their 1st ACC win.  We beat the odds on this one, as Pomeroy gave us a 37% chance of winning.  

We currently sit at 1-1 in the ACC.  Pomeroy predicts that we will win 5.46 more ACC games, giving us 6.46 ACC wins.  NOTE: that prediction doesn't include the ratings adjustment that will come after tonight's win.  Things are starting to look okay for this team.  

We were the only ACC team to play Tuesday (the rest play Wednesday).  While this could have been pretty bad for the Noles, it is now to our advantage as we get an extra day of rest, preparation, and practice before facing Maryland on Saturday.  

Important games for our opponents for the week of 1/11- 1/17:

The top 4 slots in the ACC will be Duke, UNC, Wake, and Clemson in some order.  Most think Miami takes the 5th spot.  Our goal is to grab the 6th and final spot.  

Here are the important ACC games for the week: (who we need to win in parenthesis)

1/14/2009
Duke @ Georgia Tech (DUKE) Duke won 70-56
Richmond @ Virginia Tech (VT, for conference reputation) VT won 62-48
Maryland @ Miami (Miami, this one is very big) Miami won 62-60 !!
Wake Forest @ Boston College (Wake, this one is huge) Wake crushed BC, in BC, 83-63.  Wake is scary. 

1/15/2009
North Carolina @ Virginia (UNC) UNC crushed them

Purdue @ Northwestern (a Northwestern win would be big) Purdue came back to win in a big one :(

1/17/2009
Georgia Tech @ NC State (GTech) :(  NCST beat GTech 76-71 in Overtime.
Georgetown @ Duke (Duke, conference reputation) Duke Spanked GTown
Boston College @ Virginia Tech (VTech. Very important)
Miami @ North Carolina (UNC, on some off chance we're in position to leap Miami)

Other important games:
1.17.09 Cal @ Stanford 1.17 (Cal is a pretty good team and we beat them and so did Standford...the word used in the ESPN article title: Stanford SHOCKS No 23 Cal)
Cinci v. Rutgers (1.14) (Cinci won) and @ Depaul (Cinci Won 59-55)

Thoughts?  Concerns?

RPI SOS Tracker: Updated 1/19

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