For Entertainment Purposes Only- Week 5: 146- 109 (57%), +28.14 Units
Note: We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead. The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences. Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams. Think of this as your weekend primer!
Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only! Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:
I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.
First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners. Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200. No odds went against our decisions. Then we went over season win totals. Vegas set the number, we called it over or under! In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Week 2 we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units. Week 3 was 34-27. +4.50 (+5.7 College, -1.2 NFL). Week 4 was 50-34, +13.62 For the season, we sit at 146- 109 (57%), +28.14 Units. If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated. We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance. The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100. It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.
This week I am very anti-public. Many people like to wait and see what happens in the season before they start betting, I don't like that approach. The way to make money, in my opinion, is to do your homework in the off-season and come out firing in the first few weeks. This is a battle of information.
College ball sits at 128-98, +21.74. NFL sits at 18-11, +6.4
This week, we are looking to go against the public sentiment.
Here were the opening hitters:
Georgia -2.5 LSU outgained in every major game so far.
Syracuse +7 USF hangover.
Minnesota -2 Not a big Wisconsin fan here, but might middle.
Buffalo +8.5 Faded the bulls last week, on them here.
Army -6
Georgia Tech -4 Hangover from LSU, GTech much better coached.
Michigan State +1 (+100) Scalp
Northern Illinois -6.5
Bowling Green -2.5 Middle opportunity.
UNLV +3.5 Scared about this now.
Idaho +4
Iowa State -2
Memphis +7.5 (+100)
New Mexico +35.5 (+103)
Rice +14.5
SMU +28 (-113)
SDSt -16.5 (-105)
I added these yesterday and today
West Virginia -16.5 (-103) This is tonight, and I don't like Colorado's secondary.
UAB +10 Might head up to this game (I live in Tucaloosa)
Louisville +7 Pitt won't be prepared.
Utah State +24.5 Like the hook.
USF/ Syracuse Under 46.5 USF's offense is terrible.
Colorado Under 55 WVU's defense underrated.
Marshall +120
Northwestern +7.5
NCST/ Wake Over 46 Neither team plays defense.
Clemson/ Maryland Under 48.5 Neither team plays offense
Virginia +14 Silly line
Virginia Under 42.5 Two defensive minded coaches
Ball State +180 The first of many moneyline shots.
Miami (OH) +29
Notre Dame -12.5 Washington is overrated still.
Duke +17 VTech takes a game off.
Alabama/ Kentucky Under 47 Bama's offense comes out flat, UK's never shows.
Miami +7.5- no Bradford helps.
E. Mich +215 Upset special. I have had a great feel for the Temple team.
LSU/ UGA Over 51.5 No defense.
Gtech/ MisSt. Over 46
Oklahoma/ Miami Under 49.5 OU's defense is very good.
Illinois +7.5 (+100) Penn State Hangover
Michigan +127 Scalp
Oregon State +171 Wanted a touchdown, but ML will do
UCF -7 (-101) Scalp/side
Texas Tech -35 (+100) Scalp/Side
Arkansas PK +100 Like the Hogs here
Arkansas/ T A&M Over 66.6 and the over
Tennessee -1.5 People are too in love with Auburn
Cal +4.5 +100
Arkansas State +21.5
Ark State/ Iowa Under 45 +100
Remember now, there are a few middles in there, and a few scalps, so pay attention.
NFL
2-Team, 6-point, even money teasers
Jax +8.5/ Balt +8.5
Jax +8.5/ Wash -1
Jax +8.5/ Miami +8.5
Jax +8.5/ Denver +8.5
Balt +8.5/ Wash -1
Balt +8.5/ Miami +8.5
Balt +8.5/ Denver +8.5
Wash -1/ Miami +8.5
Wash -1/ Denver +8.5
Miami +8.5/ Denver +8.5
Straight Wagers
NE -1 (-113)
KC +10
New Orleans -6.5 (-107)
Pitt -6
50 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
rice-tulsa
You are scaring me with this. I really like Tulsa and got them at (-14). Any reason you are with Rice?
by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 5:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yes, love Rice here
They are better than many think. My line for this was -10, so I took the 14 I really want more now if it hits +17
butting heads on this
I see a blowout by Tulsa.
My other favorite line is Arkansas St +21.5. Love the extra .5 and they are a good team.
by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 5:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Tough pick
The advanced metrics seem to suggest that Iowa should easily cover.
My heart says letdown game.
fyi-
Ark St. estimated S&p+ after week 3- 79.3, or 115th in the nation
Iowa estimated S&p+ after week 3- 115, or 18th in the nation…
These numbers are 50 percent actual results, 50 percent projections…..
And that's why this is so hard.
that doesnt account for
The partying and pats on the back all the players got when they returned from Happy Valley. They don’t have a high powered enough offense to sleepwalk there way past a high spread.
by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
can you share
Why you think Rice is better than people think? Specifically where their strengths are? Tulsa usually comes with it against other small conference opponents.
by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 9:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought they did a pretty decent job against Oklahoma State
better than just Okie State having a letdown game. And people tend to underrate rice because they lost some name talent, notably their QB & WR.
Fair enough
Thanks for the response. I still don’t like us butting heads, but I still like my pick….especially at the line I got.
If you had to give your favorite pick of the week, what would it be?
by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 9:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
+1 on Miami(Ohio)
They are breaking in a new freshman quarterback who apparently is impressive. Raudabaugh had to be one of if not the worst QB in college football. He looks like Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite throwing a football…
“How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?”
Zac Dysert is excellent.
He played at Ada, a very small school, but he threw the ball 50 times a game. It really helped him with reps, and he’s a much smoother passer than most freshmen.
That said, Brian Kelly loves to run up the score on MAC schools. Helps him in recruiting. I’m torn on this one.
miami ML
think they win SU?
I’m having a tough time deciding on whether to take the 7 or take +250. I’m getting a lil worried on OU DL. They are supposedly better than VTs and VT got pressure on jaccori
basically
your rankings on DL play would be
clem – OU – VT?
by Cee on Oct 1, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone who bet that game any which way
will think they had the right side and either
a) bad beat
b) justice served
by rocknrollnole on Oct 2, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Another sweet card
Smashed Reno myself(bought the hook), on GT game and 1st Q. btw peep the USC/CAL under……..
K.C. is hideous, you’ve been warned. Houston would be my first tease, the Raiders do not thave the fire power to keep up……..
Cal's D chronically underrated.
And I will add that, good call.
Houston is my survivor pick. I only tease through 3 and 7, so Houston at 9 or 9.5 doesn’t do it for me.
I wanna back up and double smash Nevada, but not at a bad price.
Agree on K.C.
the Giants are going to dominate them. Too balanced of an attack and once they start scoring TD’s instead of field goals in the red zone…look out
Adding 6pt even money teasers
NYG -2.5/ Jax +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Balt +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Wash -1.5
NYG -2.5/ Miami +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Denver +8.5
HOU -2.5/ NYG -2.5
HOU -2.5/ Jax +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Balt +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Wash -1.5
HOU -2.5/ Miami +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Denver +8.5
nice ending there
was on sparty 2nd half as well
by rocknrollnole on Oct 3, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry to hear that
not to be a dick but I’m setting up for biggest day/sun morn in a loooooooong time
by rocknrollnole on Oct 3, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
For next week
Grabbed
Nebraska -1.5
Nevada -7
West Virginia -9.5
Indiana +7
UConn +10
Alabama -6
Army +12
Wyoming -10
Houston -3 (this opened -2.5, missed it)
Oregon State +1.5
Tulane +3
Georgia Tech +3
Wisconsin +14.5
Kentucky +11.5
SMU +7
LSU +10
San Jose State -6.5
UNLV +14
Fresno State -9.5
Going to hit:
Wash State Under (soon)
nevermind
see u got it.
Over should be nice too pending what it is
you cleaned up in NFL
last week it seems
Well done!
by Cee on Oct 6, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

by 




























