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For Entertainment Purposes Only- Week 5: 146- 109 (57%), +28.14 Units

Note:  We use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead.  The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences.  Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams.  Think of this as your weekend primer!

Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only!  Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%.  If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end.  But since these are fake wagers, we refer to our wager amount as "units."  First though, a disclaimer: 

I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only.  Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.

First we discussed some wagers for conference and division winners.  Since then, the odds on Clemson have gone from +1000 to +300, and Ole Miss went from +350 to +200.  No odds went against our decisions.  Then we went over season win totals.  Vegas set the number, we called it over or under!  In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units.  Week 2 we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 UnitsWeek 3 was 34-27. +4.50 (+5.7 College, -1.2 NFL)Week 4 was 50-34, +13.62  For the season, we sit at 146- 109 (57%), +28.14 Units.  If we finish at 56% over 500 selections, we'll be absolutely elated.  We like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance.  The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100.  It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.


This week I am very anti-public.  Many people like to wait and see what happens in the season before they start betting,  I don't like that approach.  The way to make money, in my opinion, is to do your homework in the off-season and come out firing in the first few weeks.  This is a battle of information.

Star-divide

College ball sits at 128-98, +21.74.  NFL sits at 18-11, +6.4

This week, we are looking to go against the public sentiment.

Here were the opening hitters:

Georgia -2.5 LSU outgained in every major game so far.
Syracuse +7  USF hangover.
Minnesota -2 Not a big Wisconsin fan here, but might middle.
Buffalo +8.5  Faded the bulls last week, on them here.
Army -6
Georgia Tech -4  Hangover from LSU, GTech much better coached.
Michigan State +1 (+100) Scalp
Northern Illinois -6.5
Bowling Green -2.5 Middle opportunity.
UNLV +3.5  Scared about this now. 
Idaho +4
Iowa State -2
Memphis +7.5 (+100)
New Mexico +35.5 (+103)
Rice +14.5
SMU +28 (-113)
SDSt -16.5 (-105)

I added these yesterday and today

West Virginia -16.5 (-103)  This is tonight, and I don't like Colorado's secondary.
UAB +10  Might head up to this game (I live in Tucaloosa)
Louisville +7  Pitt won't be prepared.
Utah State +24.5  Like the hook.
USF/ Syracuse Under 46.5  USF's offense is terrible.
Colorado Under 55  WVU's defense underrated.
Marshall +120
Northwestern +7.5 
NCST/ Wake Over 46  Neither team plays defense.
Clemson/ Maryland Under 48.5  Neither team plays offense
Virginia +14  Silly line
Virginia Under 42.5  Two defensive minded coaches
Ball State +180  The first of many moneyline shots.
Miami (OH) +29
Notre Dame -12.5  Washington is overrated still.
Duke +17  VTech takes a game off.
Alabama/ Kentucky Under 47  Bama's offense comes out flat, UK's never shows.
Miami +7.5- no Bradford helps.
E. Mich +215  Upset special.  I have had a great feel for the Temple team.
LSU/ UGA Over 51.5  No defense.
Gtech/ MisSt. Over 46
Oklahoma/ Miami Under 49.5  OU's defense is very good.
Illinois +7.5 (+100) Penn State Hangover
Michigan +127 Scalp
Oregon State +171 Wanted a touchdown, but ML will do
UCF -7 (-101) Scalp/side
Texas Tech -35 (+100) Scalp/Side
Arkansas PK +100 Like the Hogs here
Arkansas/ T A&M Over 66.6 and the over
Tennessee -1.5 People are too in love with Auburn
Cal +4.5 +100
Arkansas State +21.5
Ark State/ Iowa Under 45 +100

Remember now, there are a few middles in there, and a few scalps, so pay attention.

 

NFL

2-Team, 6-point, even money teasers
Jax +8.5/ Balt +8.5
Jax +8.5/ Wash -1
Jax +8.5/ Miami +8.5
Jax +8.5/ Denver +8.5
Balt +8.5/ Wash -1
Balt +8.5/ Miami +8.5
Balt +8.5/ Denver +8.5
Wash -1/ Miami +8.5
Wash -1/ Denver +8.5
Miami +8.5/ Denver +8.5

Straight Wagers
NE -1 (-113)
KC +10
New Orleans -6.5 (-107)
Pitt -6

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rice-tulsa

You are scaring me with this. I really like Tulsa and got them at (-14). Any reason you are with Rice?

by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 5:23 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Yes, love Rice here

They are better than many think. My line for this was -10, so I took the 14 I really want more now if it hits +17

by Bud Elliott on Oct 1, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

butting heads on this

I see a blowout by Tulsa.

My other favorite line is Arkansas St +21.5. Love the extra .5 and they are a good team.

by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 5:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Tough pick

The advanced metrics seem to suggest that Iowa should easily cover.

My heart says letdown game.

by fsu44 on Oct 1, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

fyi-

Ark St. estimated S&p+ after week 3- 79.3, or 115th in the nation

Iowa estimated S&p+ after week 3- 115, or 18th in the nation…

These numbers are 50 percent actual results, 50 percent projections…..

by fsu44 on Oct 1, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

that doesnt account for

The partying and pats on the back all the players got when they returned from Happy Valley. They don’t have a high powered enough offense to sleepwalk there way past a high spread.

by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

can you share

Why you think Rice is better than people think? Specifically where their strengths are? Tulsa usually comes with it against other small conference opponents.

by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 9:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I thought they did a pretty decent job against Oklahoma State

better than just Okie State having a letdown game. And people tend to underrate rice because they lost some name talent, notably their QB & WR.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 1, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

 Thanks for the response. I still don’t like us butting heads, but I still like my pick….especially at the line I got.

If you had to give your favorite pick of the week, what would it be?

by Zach_Nole on Oct 1, 2009 9:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

+1 on Miami(Ohio)

They are breaking in a new freshman quarterback who apparently is impressive. Raudabaugh had to be one of if not the worst QB in college football. He looks like Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite throwing a football…

“How much you wanna make a bet I can throw a football over them mountains?”

by Renegade11 on Oct 1, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Zac Dysert is excellent.

He played at Ada, a very small school, but he threw the ball 50 times a game. It really helped him with reps, and he’s a much smoother passer than most freshmen.

That said, Brian Kelly loves to run up the score on MAC schools. Helps him in recruiting. I’m torn on this one.

by gahnki on Oct 1, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

maybe i'm a littled biased

being a Miami Alum…but i agree that it really could go either way.

by Renegade11 on Oct 2, 2009 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

unlv

why scared on this game?

by Cee on Oct 1, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions  

miami ML

think they win SU?

I’m having a tough time deciding on whether to take the 7 or take +250. I’m getting a lil worried on OU DL. They are supposedly better than VTs and VT got pressure on jaccori

by Cee on Oct 1, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Under looks excellent in this game. Miami’s defense is athletic enough to give the the new QB some trouble too.

by gahnki on Oct 1, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another sweet card

Smashed Reno myself(bought the hook), on GT game and 1st Q. btw peep the USC/CAL under……..

K.C. is hideous, you’ve been warned. Houston would be my first tease, the Raiders do not thave the fire power to keep up……..

by rocknrollnole on Oct 2, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Cal's D chronically underrated.

And I will add that, good call.

Houston is my survivor pick. I only tease through 3 and 7, so Houston at 9 or 9.5 doesn’t do it for me.

I wanna back up and double smash Nevada, but not at a bad price.

by Bud Elliott on Oct 2, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree on K.C.

the Giants are going to dominate them. Too balanced of an attack and once they start scoring TD’s instead of field goals in the red zone…look out

by Renegade11 on Oct 2, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Adding 6pt even money teasers

NYG -2.5/ Jax +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Balt +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Wash -1.5
NYG -2.5/ Miami +8.5
NYG -2.5/ Denver +8.5
HOU -2.5/ NYG -2.5
HOU -2.5/ Jax +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Balt +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Wash -1.5
HOU -2.5/ Miami +8.5
HOU -2.5/ Denver +8.5

by Bud Elliott on Oct 2, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Vady +10 -104
Washington State +35 -106
Indiana +17.5 -106

by Bud Elliott on Oct 2, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions  

For next week

Grabbed

Nebraska -1.5
Nevada -7
West Virginia -9.5
Indiana +7
UConn +10
Alabama -6
Army +12
Wyoming -10
Houston -3 (this opened -2.5, missed it)
Oregon State +1.5
Tulane +3
Georgia Tech +3
Wisconsin +14.5
Kentucky +11.5
SMU +7
LSU +10
San Jose State -6.5
UNLV +14
Fresno State -9.5

Going to hit:
Wash State Under (soon)

by Bud Elliott on Oct 4, 2009 7:52 PM EDT reply actions  

nevermind

see u got it.

Over should be nice too pending what it is

by Cee on Oct 4, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions  

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