Comparing the Noles Offensive/Defensive Performance in 2009, Part 1

This is a simple presentation of statistics which support the claim that our offensive coaches are out-performing their defensive counterparts.

(I've broken this up into two parts in order to fix the formatting problems.)

I start with the assumption that the talent level on the Noles offense and defense is similar.  If this is grossly incorrect, then my argument never gets started.  If the talent levels are similar, but the Noles offense is out-performing their defensive counterparts, then this difference in performance must be due to either coaching or competition.  I argue that the difference is not due to competition, that is, we are not facing prolific offenses and so-so defenses.  Thus, there must be a difference in the quality of coaching.  Now, I'm not an X's and O's guy, so I can't evaluate the coaching directly.  But if I eliminate the other variables, then it's the only thing left.

So, the first thing I need to establish is that the Seminoles offense is performing at a much higher level than the defense.  I'll start with a look at the offense.

The Noles' Offense

First, consider national ranking of total offense per game:  Noles are #25

Name G Rush Yards Pass Yards Plays Total Yards Yards/Play Yards/G
1 Houston 5 628 2218 427 2846 6.7 569.2
2 Texas Tech 6 468 2661 447 3129 7.0 521.5
3 Kansas 5 946 1651 393 2597 6.6 519.4
4 Texas A&M 5 954 1609 433 2563 5.9 512.6
5 Auburn 6 1511 1428 446 2939 6.6 489.8
6 Florida 5 1423 1009 337 2432 7.2 486.4
7 Texas 5 875 1523 393 2398 6.1 479.6
8 Nevada 5 1444 931 346 2375 6.9 475.0
9 Toledo 6 877 1944 432 2821 6.5 470.2
10 Notre Dame 5 740 1610 343 2350 6.9 470.0
11 Fresno State 5 1376 965 359 2341 6.5 468.2
12 BYU 6 978 1794 402 2772 6.9 462.0
13 Cincinnati 6 881 1861 391 2742 7.0 457.0
13 Oklahoma 5 939 1346 386 2285 5.9 457.0
15 Arkansas 5 668 1591 341 2259 6.6 451.8
16 West Virginia 5 961 1285 343 2246 6.5 449.2
17 Alabama 6 1341 1327 427 2668 6.2 444.7
18 Utah State 5 1034 1184 358 2218 6.2 443.6
19 Hawai'i 5 354 1861 317 2215 7.0 443.0
20 Utah 5 1026 1162 363 2188 6.0 437.6
21 USC 5 1040 1113 323 2153 6.7 430.6
22 Boise State 6 1151 1426 403 2577 6.4 429.5
23 Penn State 6 1132 1433 397 2565 6.5 427.5
24 Georgia Tech 6 1662 898 393 2560 6.5 426.7
25 Florida State 6 770 1786 410 2556 6.2 426.0

 Against opponents with winning records, the Seminole offense ranks #11:

Name G Rush Yards Pass Yards Plays Total Yards Yards/Play Yards/G
1 Houston 2 290 801 176 1091 6.2 545.5
2 West Virginia 1 207 302 80 509 6.4 509.0
3 Florida 2 484 506 146 990 6.8 495.0
4 Notre Dame 1 154 336 72 490 6.8 490.0
5 Cincinnati 2 244 728 142 972 6.8 486.0
6 Texas 3 525 921 245 1446 5.9 482.0
7 Idaho 1 207 270 67 477 7.1 477.0
8 Fresno State 3 789 629 230 1418 6.2 472.7
9 Texas Tech 2 157 741 159 898 5.6 449.0
10 Oklahoma State 2 363 519 145 882 6.1 441.0
11 Florida State 5 692 1462 349 2154 6.2 430.8

 
Notice how many ranked opponents we have had vs. how many the top ten have had!  That makes our position even more impressive.

When we consider only ranked opponents, here are the top 10 in total offense per game:

Name G Rush Yards Pass Yards Plays Total Yards Yards/Play Yards/G
1 Houston 1 146 366 82 512 6.2 512.0
2 Alabama 1 268 230 79 498 6.3 498.0
3 Fresno State 2 610 340 153 950 6.2 475.0
4 Michigan State 1 105 354 65 459 7.1 459.0
5 Mississippi State 3 690 661 230 1351 5.9 450.3
6 Texas Tech 2 157 741 159 898 5.6 449.0
7 Florida State 4 622 1121 278 1743 6.3 435.8
8 Oklahoma State 1 194 240 72 434 6.0 434.0
9 Washington 3 389 839 230 1228 5.3 409.3
10 Iowa State 2 409 406 149 815 5.5 407.5

Again note that we have done this against more ranked opponents than those ahead of us.


Noles fare well in passing offense per game: (#14)

Name G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Houston 5 276 192 69.6 2218 8.0 4 18 155.69 55.2 443.6
2 Texas Tech 6 315 218 69.2 2661 8.4 8 25 161.28 52.5 443.5
3 Hawai'i 5 214 128 59.8 1861 8.7 6 11 144.21 42.8 372.2
4 Bowling Green 6 311 197 63.3 2012 6.5 4 11 126.78 51.8 335.3
5 Kansas 5 197 137 69.5 1651 8.4 3 13 158.67 39.4 330.2
6 Cincinnati 5 188 125 66.5 1649 8.8 3 15 163.31 37.6 329.8
7 Toledo 6 251 149 59.4 1944 7.7 5 17 142.79 41.8 324.0
8 Notre Dame 5 163 109 66.9 1610 9.9 3 13 172.48 32.6 322.0
9 Texas A&M 5 215 130 60.5 1609 7.5 0 14 144.83 43.0 321.8
10 Arkansas 5 185 108 58.4 1591 8.6 4 15 153.06 37.0 318.2
11 Duke 6 256 163 63.7 1887 7.4 3 16 143.88 42.7 314.5
12 Texas 5 200 147 73.5 1523 7.6 6 10 147.97 40.0 304.6
13 BYU 6 185 130 70.3 1794 9.7 10 14 165.88 30.8 299.0
14 Florida State 6 219 148 67.6 1786 8.2 1 9 148.73 36.5 297.7
15 SMU 5 216 125 57.9 1485 6.9 10 10 121.64 43.2 297.0
16 Wake Forest 6 195 134 68.7 1719 8.8 7 15 160.97 32.5 286.5
17 Michigan State 6 201 118 58.7 1682 8.4 7 13 143.37 33.5 280.3
18 Missouri 5 186 111 59.7 1374 7.4 2 12 140.87 37.2 274.8
19 UNLV 6 235 146 62.1 1646 7.0 8 11 129.60 39.2 274.3
20 Oklahoma 5 174 104 59.8 1346 7.7 3 12 144.06 34.8 269.2



 What about passing offense per game against ranked opponents?

Name G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Texas Tech 2 109 76 69.7 741 6.8 1 4 137.11 54.5 370.5
2 Houston 1 46 32 69.6 366 8.0 1 3 153.58 46.0 366.0
3 Michigan State 1 40 26 65.0 354 8.9 1 2 150.84 40.0 354.0
4 Southern Mississippi 1 42 28 66.7 331 7.9 1 3 151.68 42.0 331.0
5 BYU 1 38 26 68.4 329 8.7 2 2 147.99 38.0 329.0
5 Duke 2 90 52 57.8 658 7.3 2 3 125.75 45.0 329.0
7 Rice 1 51 28 54.9 301 5.9 1 0 100.56 51.0 301.0
8 UNLV 1 41 25 61.0 292 7.1 3 2 122.27 41.0 292.0
9 Purdue 2 80 47 58.8 570 7.1 3 5 131.73 40.0 285.0
10 Florida State 4 142 97 68.3 1121 7.9 1 9 154.13 35.5 280.3

Now check this out -- we are #2 nationally in passer rating (for all Seminole QBs combined) vs. ranked teams:

Name G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Navy 1 13 9 69.2 156 12.0 1 2 205.42 13.0 156.0
2 Florida State 4 142 97 68.3 1121 7.9 1 9 154.13 35.5 280.3
3 Houston 1 46 32 69.6 366 8.0 1 3 153.58 46.0 366.0

Navy comes in ahead of us only because they have attempted so few passes.  In reality, among teams with a significant passing attack, we are #1 in this category.  But as amazing as that number is, wait until you see the passer rating of our ranked opponents so far (in defensive section below).

In first downs per game against ranked opponents, we fall ahead of Florida at #9:

Name G Rush Pass Penalty Total Total/G
1 Houston 1 6 22 4 32 32.0
2 Texas Tech 2 14 39 3 56 28.0
3 Oklahoma State 1 11 15 1 27 27.0
3 Michigan State 1 5 18 4 27 27.0
5 Texas A&M 1 7 14 5 26 26.0
6 Mississippi State 3 41 28 3 72 24.0
7 Washington 3 25 38 7 70 23.3
8 Rice 1 7 13 3 23 23.0
9 Florida State 4 38 46 7 91 22.8
10 Florida 1 13 6 3 22 22.0


And don't forget that no one else above us in the list has had 4 ranked opponents.

Finally, consider how Ponder ranks with other QBs in terms of passing yards per game:

Name Team Yr Pos G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Case Keenum Houston JR QB 5 262 183 69.8 2130 8.1 4 17 156.50 52.4 426.0
2 Taylor Potts Texas Tech JR QB 5 235 159 67.7 1817 7.7 6 13 145.76 47.0 363.4
3 Greg Alexander Hawai'i SR QB 4 150 98 65.3 1433 9.6 4 9 160.05 37.5 358.3
4 Tyler Sheehan BGSU SR QB 6 296 192 64.9 1960 6.6 4 11 130.05 49.3 326.7
5 Todd Reesing Kansas SR QB 5 192 133 69.3 1579 8.2 3 13 157.56 38.4 315.8
5 Jerrod Johnson Texas A&M JR QB 5 211 127 60.2 1579 7.5 0 14 144.95 42.2 315.8
7 Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame JR QB 5 148 100 67.6 1544 10.4 2 12 179.26 29.6 308.8
8 Tony Pike Cincinnati SR QB 5 174 116 66.7 1493 8.6 3 13 159.94 34.8 298.6
9 Aaron Opelt Toledo SR QB 6 220 132 60.0 1784 8.1 5 14 144.57 36.7 297.3
10 Christian Ponder FSU JR QB 6 217 147 67.7 1782 8.2 1 9 149.49 36.2 297.0

If we again limit this to ranked opponents, Ponder moves from #10 up to #7:

Name Team Yr Pos G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Taylor Potts Texas Tech JR QB 2 107 76 71.0 741 6.9 1 4 139.67 53.5 370.5
2 Case Keenum Houston JR QB 1 46 32 69.6 366 8.0 1 3 153.58 46.0 366.0
3 Austin Davis USM SO QB 1 42 28 66.7 331 7.9 1 3 151.68 42.0 331.0
4 Max Hall BYU SR QB 1 38 26 68.4 329 8.7 2 2 147.99 38.0 329.0
5 Kirk Cousins Mich St SO QB 1 35 23 65.7 302 8.6 1 1 141.91 35.0 302.0
6 Jake Locker Washington JR QB 3 120 68 56.7 839 7.0 1 3 121.98 40.0 279.7
7 Christian Ponder FSU JR QB 4 140 96 68.6 1117 8.0 1 9 155.38 35.0 279.3

 I won't paste in all the rankings that Ponder sits near the top of, but here's an idea:

  • QB Rating against ranked opponents: #2 (#1 is Mike Marscovetra of BC, who has only 10 completions vs. 1 ranked team. Ponder has almost 100 completions against ranked opponents)
  • Yards per attempt vs. ranked: #6 (8.0 YPA)
  • Completion % against ranked: #6 (68.6%)
  • Total offense per game: #8 (317.5 YPG)
  • Total offense per game vs. ranked: #7 (302.5)
  • Yards per play vs. ranked: #6 (7.0 YPP)
  • Total yards vs. ranked: #1 (1210) -- He wins this in part due to our schedule. 

In part 2, you'll see what kind of year our defensive coaches have put together so far, in terms of national rankings.

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