What are the Davey O'Brien Award Voters Thinking? Their Omission of Christian Ponder is Inexcusable
by Bud Elliott on Oct 27, 2009 1:09 PM EDT
in FSU Football
273 comments
If you follow college football for a living, you know who Christian Ponder is. If you're an NFL scout, you definitely know who Ponder is. And if you can use a computer to look at the national leader-board for quarterback performance, you know about Florida State's Junior signal-caller. But it appears that the voters for the Davey O'Brien award are computer-less and without TV's as well. Yesterday, the Davey O'Brien award committee released its list of 15 semi-finalists for the award. That list, from which they will select the winner of the award given to the best quarterback in the country, left off 2009's best quarterback, Christian Ponder.
Maybe you didn't realize just how good Ponder really is. That's alright, not everyone in the media gets it yet. A few do, and I'll recognize them at the end of this article. For now, let's check out the performance of the finalists and Ponder. To make sure everyone is evaluated on a reasonably similar slate, I am going to look only at games against BCS conference opponents. That means a team like Penn State with a cupcake laden schedule isn't getting a big boost here. There's no bonus here for crushing a Sun Belt conference team or a 1-AA ("FCS") opponent. The three quarterbacks from non-BCS conferences are not included, because they don't play a large enough sample set. And I am using per game performance to make sure that someone who has played more games than another isn't getting an unfair advantage. How do you think Ponder will stack up?
A good place to start is Quarterback Rating.
Ponder is in Garnet. Click the image to enlarge. That's right, against BCS conference opponents, Ponder's QB rating is 25 points higher than Tim Tebow. It's almost 30 points better than Colt McCoy. That's to say nothing of Jake Locker or Ricky Stanzi. Davey O'Brien committee, do you care how a QB plays on the field?
How about Yards Per Pass? Not yards per completion, but yards per pass:
Ponder produces about 10% more per attempt than Tebow, Pike, Reesing, and Clark. 30% more yards per throw than Locker and Stanzi. And 40% more yards per pass than Colt McCoy! Think about that. Against major conference opponents, Ponder produces 40% more yards per throw than McCoy.
But there's more. A lot more.
And he's deadly accurate. Davey O'Brien committee, do you think Completion Percentage matters?
Click to enlarge. The guy they left off is 2nd on the list in completion percentage! Amazingly, they included two quarterbacks who couldn't even hit 55% of their passes, and two more who couldn't hit 60%. Only 3 are completing their passes at more than a 65% clip- and they left one of those off the list.
Speaking of accuracy, what about Interception Avoidance? Because each candidate has thrown a different number of passes, the best way to measure this is to show the percentage of their passes that they threw for interceptions.
Click to enlarge. Then get your magnifying glass out. Ponder has thrown 1 interception in 196 pass attempts against BCS conference competition. Miami's Jacory Harris, who is on the list, has thrown 8 in 139 pass attempts. That's a pick every 17 throws! What about Tebow and McCoy? Tebow tosses an interception every 23 throws, and McCoy once every 29. Again, Ponder throws one every 196 passes. Yet he isn't in the discussion as the best quarterback in the country?
What about TD/ INT Ratio? People seem to love this measure.
| Player | TD/ INT |
| Christian Ponder | 10/1 |
| Zac Robinson | 8/1 |
| Jimmy Claussen | 12/2 |
| Tony Pike | 7/2 |
| Bill Stull | 10/3 |
| Darryl Clark | 9/4 |
| Todd Reesing | 9/5 |
| Ricky Stanzi | 8/6 |
| Jacory Harris | 10/8 |
| Colt McCoy | 6/5 |
| Matt Barkley | 6/5 |
| Jake Locker | 9/8 |
| Tim Tebow | 3/4 |
Oh, look at that. Ponder is again the best. Yet the O'Brien selection committee, comprised largely of lazy sportswriters who don't watch much football or pay attention, instead voting based on some pre-season list and throwing in a few QB's on teams with a good record, passed up the top quarterback in the country.
There's more. I don't like yards per game because it penalizes QB's who don't throw as often as others, but mouth-breathing voters go wild for easy to understand measures like this:
Click to enlarge. Oh, look at that. Ponder is 2nd in the country. He's more than doubling Tebow, and only one of the BCS conference quarterbacks selected by the committee broke the 300 yard per game marker. Ponder beats most of the list by 100 yards per game. And it's not like he throws the ball a lot more often than the others. He doesn't (see master chart below).
At this point, a few might say "what about rushing?" Even though this is a quarterbacking award, I think that's a relevant question. A quarterback's legs are an important part of some college football offenses. Let's take a look:
| Player | Rush Attempts | Yards/ Rush |
| Tim Tebow | 106 | 3.7 |
| Darryl Clark | 33 | 3.7 |
| Jake Locker | 69 | 2.7 |
| Zac Robinson | 29 | 2.5 |
| Todd Reesing | 28 | 1.4 |
| Christian Ponder | 45 | 1.2 |
| Colt McCoy | 39 | 1.2 |
| Bill Stull | 2 | 1.1 |
| Tony Pike | 13 | 0.5 |
| Matt Barkley | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Stanzi | 30 | -1.4 |
| Jimmy Claussen | 36 | -1.4 |
| Jacory Harris | 15 | -5.3 |
Tebow is the best runner, no doubt, but is 3.7 yards per carry really anything special? It's not as if he is lapping the field. Not that I would expect the committee to factor this in, but Ponder battled an MCL strain for 2 games- the only games in which his running was down.
So now we've looked at both passing and rushing. When you combine them, you get total yards per game:
Click to enlarge. Ponder blows everyone away except Reesing. Ponder has put up 20% more total yards than every other candidate from a major conference (including Claussen, Pike, Locker, and Barkley). 40% more total yards per game than McCoy, Tebow, Stull, and Stanzi (who really should not be considered for any performance based award). Also, Ponder accounts for a grater proportion of his team's yards than any other quarterback on the list.
If you want to have a look at the data in non-graph form, here you go:
| Player | TD/ INT | Attempts | Yards/ Attempt | Completion % | Passing Yards/ Game | Attempts/ TD | Attempts/ INT | QB Rating | Runs | Yards/ Rush | Rush/ Game | Rush Yards/ Game | Total Yards/ Game |
| Christian Ponder | 10/1 | 39 | 8.5 | 70% | 331 | 5.1% | 0.5% | 157 | 45 | 1.2 | 9 | 11 | 342 |
| Zac Robinson | 8/1 | 27 | 8.2 | 64% | 223 | 7.3% | 0.9% | 155 | 29 | 2.5 | 7 | 18 | 241 |
| Jimmy Claussen | 12/2 | 35 | 8.2 | 64% | 289 | 5.7% | 0.9% | 149 | 36 | -1.4 | 6 | -8 | 281 |
| Tony Pike | 7/2 | 36 | 7.7 | 65% | 278 | 6.5% | 1.9% | 147 | 13 | 0.5 | 4 | 2 | 280 |
| Bill Stull | 10/3 | 25 | 8.8 | 68% | 223 | 7.9% | 2.4% | 162 | 2 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 225 |
| Darryl Clark | 9/4 | 29 | 7.7 | 59% | 226 | 6.1% | 2.7% | 138 | 33 | 3.7 | 7 | 24 | 250 |
| Todd Reesing | 9/5 | 46 | 7.7 | 64% | 351 | 4.9% | 2.7% | 139 | 28 | 1.4 | 7 | 10 | 361 |
| Ricky Stanzi | 8/6 | 30 | 6.5 | 54% | 196 | 4.4% | 3.3% | 117 | 30 | -1.4 | 5 | -7 | 189 |
| Jacory Harris | 10/8 | 28 | 9.1 | 62% | 253 | 7.2% | 5.8% | 150 | 15 | -5.3 | 3 | -16 | 237 |
| Colt McCoy | 6/5 | 36 | 6.1 | 72% | 217 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 130 | 39 | 1.2 | 10 | 12 | 229 |
| Matt Barkley | 6/5 | 28 | 9.2 | 58% | 261 | 4.2% | 3.5% | 142 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 261 |
| Jake Locker | 9/8 | 36 | 6.7 | 55% | 245 | 3.5% | 3.2% | 117 | 69 | 2.7 | 10 | 27 | 272 |
| Tim Tebow | 3/4 | 19 | 7.9 | 63% | 147 | 3.2% | 4.3% | 132 | 106 | 3.7 | 21 | 79 | 226 |
Is this reward really given to the finest quarterback in the country? Really?
While the Davey O'Brien Award Selection Committee seems to be asleep at the wheel, others have not. Pro scouts are starting to take notice. They have been flocking to Tallahassee over the past few weeks to see the Junior signal caller who offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher calls the best in the country.
All the quarterback talk this season has been about juniors Jake Locker, Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford and Jevan Snead. But in a 30-27 win over North Carolina Thursday night, Florida State's Christian Ponder made an argument to join the discussion as the top NFL quarterback prospect.
Entering the game, the Tar Heels were first in nation in pass defense. How did Ponder respond? By completing 33 of 40 passes for 395 yards and three touchdowns.
It's been an incredible year for Ponder. In seven games, he has 2,176 yards passing, 12 touchdowns and only one interception. On the season, he's completing a sparkling 70 percent of his passes.
As a prospect, Ponder's arm might not be as strong as Locker's or Snead's, but it's just as good as Clausen's and Bradford's.
He also has plenty of athleticism for a quarterback. It's great that Locker can run a 4.4 40-yard dash, but how relevant is that to the position?
During the game's broadcast, ESPN's Jesse Palmer said Ponder runs the fastest shuttle on Florida State. For the position, that means he can elude pressure well, which he did nicely of in the second half.
Ponder's football intelligence is clearly optimal. He's been given the freedom to check down at the line of scrimmage and change plays. Unlike most of today's college quarterbacks, he doesn't lock onto one receiver. Sure, he's guilty of that on occasion, but it's a correctable problem. MockingTheDraft.com
And national writers as well:
Amidst an otherwise miserable season for Florida State, quarterback Christian Ponderhas been sensational. The junior, who was 33-of-40 for 395 yards and three TDs in Thursday night's comeback win at North Carolina, has completed 70 percent of his passes for 2,176 yards, 12 TDs and just one pick. Amazingly, it took the 'Noles nine years to find a decent quarterback -- and now that they have, they're 3-4. _Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel
With virtually no threat of a running game against the best defense FSU will face before the finale in Gainesville, Ponder hit his last 16 passes, three for touchdowns, and finally pulled off the game-winning heroics in the final minute that eluded him on last-ditch drives against Miami and Boston College. I felt for Ponder when Jarmon Fortson couldn't hold on to his game-winning throw into the end zone to beat the 'Canes on Labor Day, and again last week, when he led six touchdown drives and finished with a ridiculous 201.8 pass efficiency rating against Georgia Tech, only to stand by while the defense allowed seven touchdowns and couldn't get the Jackets off the field in the last four minutes to give Ponder another chance in a 49-44 loss. It was big for him to finish the comeback in Chapel Hill. In fact, it struck me as something of a one-man show, which -- when you consider that Ponder continues to lead the ACC in passing yards and completion percentage and owns the nation's best touchdown:interception ratio (12:1) after his sixth straight game without a pick, despite the total absence of a consistent running threat and a parade of must-throw situations opposite the conference's worst defense -- basically describes Florida State's offensive philosophy for the season: (insert Chart showing Ponder accounts for a greater percentage of his team's total offense than any other O'Brien candidate. Dr. Saturday (Matt Hinton, Yahoo Sports)
And from ESPN's Bruce Feldman, Via his Twitter account:
BFeldmanESPN Thinking about this week's Heisman top 5 and am torn between Golden Tate, Suh and Ponder.
Additionally, How can the Selection Committee justify the exclusion of Mr. Ponder? Their website states that the award honors the nation's best college quarterback and includes, among other factors, academics. Given the facts above and that Mr. Ponder received his undergraduate degree in Finance in 2 1/2 years, graduating summa cum laude (and is about to complete his Master's degree), I encourage the members of your Selection Committee to do some soul searching. (Thanks to reader Rob for that).
What can you do? Perhaps there is still hope. E-mail this article to Info@DaveyOBrien.org Also, consider sending it to the members of the selection committee (google them for their e-mail addresses). Perhaps the O'Brien committee will do the right thing and amend their list. If this award is really given to the best quarterback in the country, Christian Ponder must be on the list.
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If all this is true?
(and I believe it is), why are you so confident that CP7 will return for his senior year?
I was thinking the same thing, why stay for another year. Only thing I can think of is to improve his draft status. But if after bowl season he’s projected at a top 10 pick then it would be hard to argue with the decision to go pro.
Thoughts Bud, is he a top 10 draft pick next year?
Doesn't that also depend on who else comes out?
Most of the best QBs for the draft are underclassmen.
www.twitter.com/fsumatthunter
I have this nightmarish vision of Belichek going against his MO to trade up and take Ponder...
And groom him to take over for Brady…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
Im a big dolphins fan
but Im a bigger FSU fan.
As long as he doesn’t play for the Jets, I’ll stay a fan.
by NorthernHaze on Oct 29, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
He's an idiot if he goes
Lots of qb’s coming out this year. Clausen, Mccoy, Snead, Locker, Pike etc. I say stay another year and guarantee yourself a top 10 pick next year. Plus I think the guy likes to win and would love to turn the program around. Great article by the way Uncensored. Ponder has been a beast all year and will definitely be the Heisman frontrunner if he stays another year.
He is way way ahead of Pike and McCoy
McCoy is a 4th rounder.
He gets to torch NCST Wake and MD coming up
Still....
Ponder would not go in the first round this year. He’s a lock for a top 10 pick next year if he stays. Locker, Clausen and Bradford all will go before him, although Bradford’s injury is questionable. And that still leaves a ton of other quarterbacks left in the second and third round. Ponder is an idiot if he leaves. He can guarantee himself a ton of money if he stays. Of course he risks injury as Bradford did if he stays. I think he returns for sure.
We'll know plenty by the time he has to decide
Draft predictions will be out, he and Jimbo will make the right call.
>>---l>
either way
what are the odds Jimbo goes Pete Carroll on him if he leaves? (that was a rhetorical question)
was kidding
just taking the opportunity to bag on USC a bit
by beachnole05 on Oct 28, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he needs to learn accuracy @ a higher velocity
And this process is going to be hit or miss for him.
Either he grasps it quickly and produces great next season, or his timing is all jacked up and he produces like a clown.
So you are right—if his stock is up there then it is time to make the jump; I just hope, and do believe, that EJ Manuel is taking this in, and instead of viewing Ponder as the enemy, he is viewing Ponder as a valuable tool towards his own success.
EJ certainly seems like a smart kid.
he is viewing Ponder as a valuable tool towards his own success.
I do think this is the case.
I don't think he'll leave this year.
I’m sure scouts are starting to drool, but he’s only had one season where he’s actually throwing the ball and had protection.
He could be first round this year, but he’s not going to be top 10 which is where the big money is.
He has the chance to get a lot more recognition next year with an easier schedule (depending on the defensive changes).
Barring injury the entire offensive line will be returning – so there is less risk of a Sam Bradford type of season.
We had a short discussion in an earlier thread
You had Ponder 90% chance of staying. I say its somewhere around 70%. Are you still 90% sure he’ll stay.
I also think Ponder should go.
Look at Bradford, he probably cost himself 10 million dollars this year.
there is a huge difference there though
bradford would have been a top 10 pick last year
Ponder probably isn’t a top 10 pick this year.
You would be a terrible agent
Ponder shouldn’t go anywhere. He is not a first round pick this year and can guarantee himself a ton of money if he stays. He will have another year to develop his few faults and start to gain national recognition. Like I said he will be a Heisman front runner next year and a definite top 10 pick. This year he is a second or third rounder. Too many qb’s this year in the draft. And this is coming from someone who believes he is the best qb in the nation right now.
He's definitely a 1st round pick this year.
No doubt.
Which QB’s do you seriously think will go ahead of him?
Plenty
Locker, Clausen, Bradford and LeFevour, although Bradford’s injury is concerning. Also I think McCoy goes to Denver and Hiller could sneak in before Ponder. You can’t argue that Ponder won’t be the best qb around next year and is a lock for top 10 money in the 2011 draft. I love him as much as you do, but to go into the draft this year is throwing away millions.
Not a chance
on Lefevour.
Locker isn’t coming out. He already has the baseball money. McCoy and Hiller would definitely not go ahead of him. Not only is he physically better than most of those guys, but he blows them away mentally. Teams are going to go nuts over that.
Some teams are dumb though
The top talent evaluators dont need qb’s this year.
Who is going to draft a qb round 1 next year?
The NFL draft
is based on system and needs and I don’t see him squeezing in because of that this year. We can agree to disagree, but Ponder is not a first round pick this year. Too many qb’s in the water and he will dominate the headlines next year. And I agree with his intelligence that helps for sure. But like I said he will get millions and a top 10 pick if he stays.
exactly
All of us know that Ponder can be a top pick.
but many of the other GM’s might not have the balls to pass on a big heisman name like McCoy or Tebow in favor of the guy with big numbers from the school who dominates the headlines with negative press and talks of a collapse.
If the Steelers, Giants, Dolphins, Colts or Patriots needed a QB then im sure that Ponder would be at the top of their lists.
But all the inept teams need a QB and they will flock to the big name.
They've passed on
Just about every other QB who has won the Heisman in the past 10 years
Because.....
Heisman QBs flop in the NFL. The vast majority of all of the Heisman winners that succeed in the NFL is WRs and/or running backs. On the other hand QBs that won Heisman fade away and end up fighting for 2nd or 3rd string rights, get bounced around from trades (or free agency contracts) or have a dismal short career.
How does past Heisman success
have any value to a current individual player? Are Carson Palmer and Eric Crouch even remotely comparable when it came to their professional prospects? Correlation does not equal causation. The fact that a QB won the Heisman and didn’t succeed has zero bearing on Christian Ponder.
Tools Whore
Ponder
If those GM’s don’t pass on Tebow, McCoy etc. they should be fired on the spot.
If Ponder was putting up these numbers from under center, he’d be a guaranteed first round pick this year. Think Sanchez, but probably smarter and a stronger arm.
McCoy...
…might end up being decent in the pros. Tebow will be an utter failure at QB in the NFL. His style limits his potential for a NFL career. Tebow cant pass for crap and hes too slow for the NFL versions of the “Wildcat” formations. He wont be trucking over too many DEs and LBs in defenses on the next level. Ultimately, we’ve seen the best of Tim Tebow, now in the college level, while an already outstanding Christian Ponder has vast amounts more room to progress and will be better suited for the Pro offenses.
Yes I was serious
Lefevour has thrown for over 9,000 yards and rushed for over 2,000. NFL coaches would love to find another MAC qb ala Rothleisberger. Locker I think goes for sure. FSUncensored mentioned his baseball money, but that is a joke. He was drafted in the 10th round and hasn’t played since 2006. 10th round baseball money v.s. first round NFL money….hmmm not even close. McCoy has the one thing Ponder doesn’t…name recognition. I think he finishes second in the Heisman to Ingram and could possibly win the national championship. I don’t think he is first round worthy, but that’s where he will go.
even if Locker doesn't go
Ponder is not a first round pick. I say stick around and guarantee a top 10 pick for sure.
he is not a first round pick sorry
Look at the teams needing quarterbacks, look at the players coming out, look at any draft board to gauge teams interest in players(although some really suck so choose wisely). He is not a first round pick. You can keep banging that drum though and it doesn’t matter. Ponder will be here next year.
Those draft boards have a tendency to change very quickly after the season ends and teams start looking at tape. How many people had heard of Joe Flacco this time two years ago? He was a 1st round pick.
I’m not saying where I think Ponder will/would go this year but I don’t think you can use the current draft boards of teams to gauge where we will be come draft day.
I agree
Ponder will definitely be rising by the end of the year. No coverage against NC Sate will hurt though. I also don’t expect him to tear up Florida. 300 yards in that game at least though. He can easily pad numbers against Maryland and NC State also. Still look at teams that need qb’s., where they are picking, and the other needs that they have. Also look at the system they play and total qb’s available. He is an early second rounder. I expect 3 qb’s to go in the first round max. I don’t see where Ponder becomes one of those 3.
I dont think NFL scouts are looking at his numbers
they are more interested in his film, types of throws he does well and types he doesn’t do well, how well he breaks down defenses, etc.
The only reason media members look at numbers is because they think its an adequate summation of how good a player is.
NFL scouts have tons of time and resources to spend looking beyond the numbers.
by NorthernHaze on Oct 28, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Just a quick question 1newplayer
You said you do not expect Ponder to tear up Florida but you expect him to get 300 yards at least? Am I misunderstanding what you said there, because in my mind, if Ponder gets 300 yards, that is tearing up Florida….maybe not on the scoreboard but one man did his job.
Yeah
300 is a lot against Florida now that I look back at that statement. Florida will easily be the best defense we play this year and that is including NC who was ranked high, but overrated in my opinion. Florida should have all of it’s banged up players back on defense so the going will be really tough in Gainesville. The Gators as usual will be jacked up to play us and it could get ugly if we don’t get a few breaks and some turnovers.
Stop relying on draft boards.
He is a 1st round pick if the draft were held today. He’s ahead of McCoy and the others you listed.
by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not relying on draft boards
I’m only looking at where teams pick and their needs. We can keep going in circles if you like or you can just accept that someone doesn’t agree with you. Ponder is not a first round pick this year. He is a top 10 pick next year and will not enter the draft this year. Bank on it.
Im with you
newplayer…he won’t come out at he shouldnt because he probably wouldnt be in the 1st round. Jake Locker got picked on the o’brien list just because he is a high draft prediction. Ponder didnt get it by his stats or that. He needs to be a little more recognized. And if they look at his film, NFL scouts will say he needs to put more velocity into a lot of his bubble screens and other passes.
how can you say that he'll be a first round pick
I tried to find a similar situation in the last 10 years of the draft but don’t have the vast time or football knowledge required.
Historically, how many quarterbacks fit this description:
Plays in an elite offense on a team with a losing record.
Plays in a conference that most percieve as weak this year.
Doesn’t get nominated for any positional awards.
We’re too close to the program to judge where he will be drafted. We know he’s talented. We know he could be a solid starter in the NFL. We know how much better he is than most, if not all, qbs coming out this year. If i ran a team that didn’t have a top 10 qb i would draft him.
What we don’t know is how outsiders view him. We dont know how draft experts view him.
Its far too early for this sort of speculation. If the status quo continues with ponder performing well, but gaining minimal recognition (if any ay all) then i highly doubt he’s a first round pick this year.
If he puts up similar numbers to what he has the past few games for the rest of the season and EPSN and other media outlets jump on his bandwagon and champion him as a top 10 pick then obviously NFL teams are going to take a harder look at him.
Its far too early for this sort of speculation. Ponder could have a bad game against UF and ‘experts’ could use that as a sign that he can’t play against elite teams.
We don’t have all the information yet. But while newplayer and I believe that he wont be a first round pick based on the status quo, you seem to operate under the assumption that he will get the recognition and draft projection that he deserves.
Seriously it is not hard to understand
ESPN has nothing to do with his draft prospects. Scouts don’t care about ESPN. Front office guys don’t care about ESPN. They will look plenty hard.
Recognition means nothing. Nothing.
He has everything the NFL is looking for, and when he tests it will only further boost his stock.
www.twitter.com/fsumatthunter
its not hard to understand, but its more complicated than you make it.
Front office guys dont care about ESPN but its naive to think a constant media hype doesn’t effect a players draft status.
Not every team scouts talent like the Steelers. All they do is look at game tape.
I agree
media hype does make a difference. Like I said below I can name a ton of players who I thought were busts but because of the school they played at or media recognition were drafted higher that they should have been. A few years later they are out of the NFL. Recognition isn’t the only thing holding Ponder back from a 1st round pick though. It’s some of his throws and mechanics, what teams need qb’s, what system they run, where they are drafting, and qb’s available. All of this talk though is silly because I believe he returns next year.
At least you agree
that he is a second round pick. Or did yesterday at least
http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2009/10/23/1097324/fsus-christian-ponder-looking
Absolutely, I may not agree to the level of what Bud says
But I did also say I think he has a good shot to be a first rounder, and I meant this year.
www.twitter.com/fsumatthunter
Recognition holds weight
It’s why a bunch of players with that turn up to be busts. I could name thousands of players drafted on that alone who sit on benches or are out of the NFL. Hell Al Davis picks purely based on that and speed.
NFL Rookie changes
i don’t follow the NFL as closely, but isn’t there a major change happening in guaranteed money for rookies? Isn’t this year’s draft the last year with the current setup? IF that’s the case then there is even more of an argument for him to go now. I definitely think Ponder is better than Locker, LeFevour, McCoy and Hiller. I will maybe give you Bradford and Clausent
This is the biggest obstacle for Ponder not returning next year.
If I have my facts correct, since the league optted-out of the collective bargaining agreement earlier than they needed to, the way it stands right now there will be no salary cap in the NFL next year (2010).
That could mean one of 2 things, that there will be bidding wars left and right for established veterans, or the owners could go nuts with rookie salaries. I think it will be the former instead of the later because part of the reason the owners optted out early was they felt the unproven rookie signing bonus were out of control (there were a couple of other major factors like the total labor cost [players currently get 60% of the teams revenues] and the inability of the teams to recoup signing bonus when a player doesn’t fufill his contract [can you say M. Vick?]).
So this presents a quagmire in the CP7 situation. Having been there for the 1987 strike (the union has made it clear they will not strike, however the owners can “lock out” the players), I think that a new agreement will be worked out before the end of the 2010 season. Neither side wants a strike or a lock out. Since the new agreement may favor the veteran players over the rookies, this may spur Ponder to pull the trigger and declare.
Despite this, as I wrote in a previous post, he overall value IMO will be higher next year than this year and I think the signing bonus will be lowered over a period of time instead of all at once, so being a higher draft pick in 2011 may still be in Ponder’s best interest.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
We are forgetting that the salary situation added with the Bowden situation added with FSU administrations ineptness added with.....
Seriously, Ponder is a smart guy, maybe brilliant. He may be the Josh Freeman of the draft and be a shock first round pick (although Ponder deserves it to me, Freeman’s verdict is still out). Or, if smart, he takes quick money on a short contract and in a few years he breaks the band with a veteranesque type contract.
I just think FSU has a few years to be the type of place where people want to stay and feel confident that they can do better next year than they did this year. With the Bowden guessing game and the immense amounts of variables that come with that…..I think Ponder see greener pastures in the NFL. And if this happens…..well its just another bite of the fecal sandwich for true FSU fans.
I would think that Ponder probably knows what is going on with the Bowden situation!
There is no way IMO that he doesn’t know what is going on and what the future holds as far as coaches are concerned. IMO Bowden is out, Ponder knows this and will stay to return FSU to a Top 10 Team and improve his draft status.
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Wishful Thinking
Current AP Top 10 and where their defense ranks (FEI Index)
1. Florida – 6
2. Alabama – 3
3. Texas – 20
4. USC – 2
5. Cincinnati – 32
6. Boise State – 17
7. Iowa – 1
8. TCU – 22
9. LSU – 26
10. Oregon – 13
FSU Defense ranks 101. You are delusional if you think FSU is a Top 10 team next year.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
I still believe that they will be a Top 10 Team by having even the slighest improvements that I believe will happen over this Offseason.
Bobby an Co. gone! New Defensive coaches and at the very least a 15% improvement in defense and I think we can easily be Top 10 with or schedule and the improvements I believe we will have. The only player/starter that we would be losing on Offense is Owens.
In all, we should actually improve on Offense with another offseason(OL bigger and Stronger = better Run Game) and I think that will be enough to win the close games that we have dropped this year.
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Slight Improvements will not get us there
Defense improves 15%, that still leaves them in the bottom half, which if you noticed above does not equate to Top 10.
Expecting a Top 10 offense to improve might be unrealistic, sustaining that ranking might be a better goal.
Top 10, keep dreaming.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
I guess we will have to agree to disagree...
Each lose was 10 points or less…If the defense could have a stopped each time one time and kept them from scoring, Fortson makes the endzone catch…our record is a lot different, with the exception of the USF game.
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Playing the "what if" game is dumb
We won Jax St with 35 seconds left and beat UNC by 3 in the last minutes of the game. One play here, one play there.
We could also be 1-6.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Good Point....but the "D" made a stop
UNC the “D” was making stops in the second half….that and UNC stopped running the ball.
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
My real arguement is that....
with slight improvements on “D” and the potent “O” we have have I think next year will be a total different story.
I think that slight improvemnt will come with a new “D” staff with new schemes and actually coaching. It is not hard to imagine this “D” being better with just some decent coaching!
And with the improvements on "D’ I think it is reasonable to think we could be a Top 10 team playing in the ACC.
We don’t have to have a Top 10 “D” with the offense we have. Maybe my 15% improvement was a little low since we are 104th in “D”, but I don’t think it is a far stretch to think Top 10 is possible.
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
VAST improvements on D is what is needed
and that will not come in just 1 year. Houston is the only team in the Top 25 with a defense ranked in the bottom half (80th).
The main reason they are ranked is because they put up a ton of points against sorry teams and played excellent 1 Saturday night against #5 Ranked Ok St.
I am all about 2011 but you are expecting a miracle to happen in 2010.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Where are you getting these rankings?
What rank is GT Defense?
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you, I see GT is 88th before the adjustment
but am going with the adjusted numbers!
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
FSUn...do you think we make Top 10 nest year?
with new DC and staff and Ponders stays?
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe
They will be one of the 10 best, BUT
the schedule will make it impossible to top like 8-4 or 9-3
Yeah I could see that...
with UM, UF, Clem and Okla giving us problems
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
There is always something to improve on(Offense)....
especially when Jimbo is in charge. Perfection does not even seem to be good enough for Jimbo!
That’s one of the reasons why I think is definitely the right man for HC!
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 28, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Rookie pay scale
If the season is uncapped or if the pay scale stays slotted like now is completely up to the owners. They just have a date in the current CBA that they have to inform the NFLPA by. As of right now the latest article I read said the NFL hadn’t decided if they were going uncapped or not.
Uncapped doesn’t mean more or less money by the way. Without a cap it has been said the draft would be like MLB’s where you only draft people you think you could sign. This would be a horrible sign for someone like Tebow, who an agent could make a pitch for his name selling tickets even though he has major question marks, or Dez Bryant, who is going to be painted with the Crabtree brush because he hands out with Primetime.
by osceolafan850 on Oct 28, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I can agrue that, and I will
can’t argue that Ponder won’t be the best qb around next year
I believe that Ryan Mallet is the favourite to be the #1 pick overall in the 2011 NFL draft. I do think that Ponder will be right up there as the #2 QB along with Jevan Snead (should he stay – and he should return for his SR season), Jimmy Clausen (if he returns – seems highly unlikely at this point) and any of the other potential JR QBs who are being looked at this year. I’m not that sold (right now) on SO QBs being better than Ponder, so he’s got a very good chance to be a top 10 pick for 2011.
Clearly I was arguing for Best QB around for the Draft
and not for College Football, because I do believe that Ponder will be better for FSU than Mallett will be for Arkansas.
Missing Chart?
(insert Chart showing Ponder accounts for a greater percentage of his team’s total offense than any other O’Brien candidate.)
It is in the quote by Dr. Saturday.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
How about we add the Defensive yards per play given up
For the teams that the 15 semifinalists play for.
That should demonstrate what Ponder is dealing with on his own team.
Let me state this better:
The chart I am proposing would list Yards per Play that the D for each nominee’s team gives up. FSU’s D has to be significantly worse, save maybe Washington, than every other QB’s team listed.
Is that not helpful to the case?
I know you have focused on strictly performance based metrics, but I just think it will put things in context when it comes to those that cite are bad record.
My mistake then
I thought that just last week you said that he was likely staying for his final year.
Wins
Anyone who tries to counter with “the team isn’t winning” argument should look to the inclusion of Jake Locker on a 3-5 team. That did not seem to be a problem for a less qualified candidate.
Exactly
What the hell has Jake Locker accomplished???
by CSI Nole on Oct 27, 2009 2:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Beat USC
That shouldn’t matter, but it probably does.
by nolesblogger on Oct 27, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
They scored like 14 points in that game
Locker probably didn’t have a TD pass. Besides that people have been scoring like crazy on USC.
I'm not saying it is a good reason
But the recognition from the win probably had an effect on some voters. That’s why I said “That shouldn’t matter, but it probably does.”
by nolesblogger on Oct 29, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I just emailed the clowns at the Davey O'Brien a copy of this article.
Unfortunately, this reminds me of the Toney Douglas snub for ACC POY award that I wrote about. And TD even played for one of the ACC’s top 4 teams…
Why are clueless sports writers the one’s voting for these awards?
Weak competition argument
Before Ponder played them UNC was the number 1 pass defense in the country. Those who say Tebow plays in the number 1 defensive conference should then take away his 4 passing TDs against Troy, leaving him with a TD:Int ratio of 4:4.
Justin Tuggle is 4:3 TD:Int and he is transferring because of being benched. Still better than Tebow.
If it was just about being in a tough conference
then other QBs in te SEC should be struggling more, right?
PASSING AVG/GAME Cl G Comp-Att-Int Pct. Yards TD Long Avg/G
1. Ryan Mallett-AR SO 7 115 – 221 – 3 52.0 1900 15 75 271.4
2. Joe Cox-UG SR 7 120 – 209 – 9 57.4 1581 13 65 225.9
3. Stephen Garcia-SC SO 8 151 – 257 – 4 58.8 1794 11 69 224.2
4. J. Crompton-UT SR 7 123 – 213 – 10 57.7 1475 14 51 210.7
5. Jevan Snead-UM JR 7 102 – 194 – 11 52.6 1440 14 65 205.7
6. Chris Todd-AU SR 8 114 – 204 – 3 55.9 1490 12 93 186.2
7. Greg McElroy-UA JR 8 121 – 202 – 3 59.9 1445 9 80 180.6
8. Jo. Jefferson-LS SO 7 112 – 176 – 3 63.6 1258 9 58 179.7
9. T. Tebow-UF SR 7 84 – 132 – 4 63.6 1159 8 77 165.6
10. Tyson Lee-MS SR 8 102 – 172 – 9 59.3 1126 3 69 140.8
http://www.secsports.com/sport_stats/football/confldrs.htm#conf.wi2
though he has the second least amount of attempts
law of large numbers. His efficiency should go down.
statistical term
the more attempts there are, the closer you go to the true value. Right now anomalies against weak opponents are boosting his efficiency, as more attempts against SEC opponents are added, his efficiency should drop.
Not true
SEC games only:
Name Team Yr Pos G Att Comp Pct. Yards Yards/Att Int TD Rating Att/G Yards/G
1 Joe Cox Georgia SR QB 5 149 88 59.1 1177 7.9 6 11 141.72 29.8 235.4
2 Jonathan Crompton Tennessee SR QB 4 125 72 57.6 927 7.4 4 7 131.97 31.3 231.8
3 Tim Tebow Florida SR QB 5 93 59 63.4 734 7.9 4 3 131.78 18.6 146.8
4 Jordan Jefferson LSU SO QB 5 132 85 64.4 921 7.0 2 4 129.97 26.4 184.2
5 Ryan Mallett Arkansas SO QB 5 172 81 47.1 1320 7.7 2 10 128.41 34.4 264.0
6 Stephen Garcia S Carolina SO QB 5 189 105 55.6 1292 6.8 3 8 123.78 37.8 258.4
7 Greg McElroy Alabama JR QB 5 133 75 56.4 798 6.0 2 5 116.18 26.6 159.6
8 Jevan Snead Miss JR QB 4 122 59 48.4 816 6.7 9 6 106.03 30.5 204.0
9 Mike Hartline Kentucky JR QB 3 73 39 53.4 392 5.4 5 3 98.40 24.3 130.7
10 Chris Todd Auburn SR QB 5 121 62 51.2 664 5.5 2 1 96.76 24.2 132.8
11 Tyson Lee Miss St SR QB 4 85 44 51.8 436 5.1 6 2 88.49 21.3 109.0
12 Larry Smith Vanderbilt SO QB 5 142 60 42.3 534 3.8 4 2 72.86 28.4 106.8
If Ponder leaves . . .
Do we go after a top flight QB prospect or try to steal one away from another school?
Nah
It means EJ gets 3 years instead of two. And we recruit a big time QB for 2011, as we were planning to do anyway.
>>---l>
How good
of a chance do we have on him? I know we started recruiting him earlyy..
I absolutely hate
UF-FSU battles. Things just never seem to work in our favor.
Never?
Or just a lot more often since about 2004-2005? I think we’ll win more battles post 2010. It’ll be a bit more even.
Some Crude Defensive Numbers
Please keep in mind these numbers are somewhat rough and that is probably why FSUn didn’t include them in his article, it is basically just to further the point that Ponder has been outstanding and against some impressive competition.
I used the same requirements as above, only FBS opponents. I used the most current "FEI Rankings" (10/17/09) as opposed to when the QB played the opponent but I feel it can still be used as a applicable tool.
Ponder has played against 4 Top 10 defenses, Clausen has been the only other to play more than 1
Ponder is second only to Reesing in the so called “sexy” stats that sportswriters love. But after seeing the defensive comparison it is clearly apparent that Ponder’s numbers outshine everyone’s.
Again please note these are rough numbers.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Any idea where Kellen Moore would rank? I have heard that Boise State has played a surprising amount of good passing defenses this season.
I think we should definitely take that into consideration, but I was discussing this issue on another board and it was pointed out by someone that Boise State has faced opponents with a slightly better average passing efficiency defense than Florida State so far.
I found that surprising, but it is the case. Now maybe passing efficiency defense isn’t the stat we should be looking to here.
6 of 7 opponents are Non-BCS Opponents
Without analyzing the numbers I would say that BSU opponents acheived better pass defenses due to the level of competition.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
and if those non-bcs opps played some bcs opps
they probably would’ve been run on more which would help their passing D stats.
Not necessarily
I’m pretty sure these rankings look at yards per passing play as opposed to total passing yards, and then they are adjusted for opponent.
by nolesblogger on Oct 29, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you took it too literally
Any idea where Kellen Moore would rank? I have heard that Boise State has played a surprising amount of good passing defenses this season.
Def Ranks
Oregon – 9
Miami (OH) – 72
Fresno – 103
Bowling Green – 88
Tulsa – 82
Hawaii – 116
With numbers that bad I can’t imagine he has faced too may good passing defenses
CP7, Please do not go Pro
My comment wasn't in reference to the whole discussion
Just the comment that getting run all over would actually make your passing stats better
by nolesblogger on Oct 29, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
But as bad as those defenses are ranked
I would venture to say they are terrible all around
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Interesting ranking for 2011 Draft Prospects
CP was the ranked the 21st best QB about two weeks ago. Now he is ranked the 9th QB by CBS and a 5-6th round projection. I think, barring injury, he could become a 1st day pick by the season’s end.
However, I think unless he is projected a top 15 pick that he comes back to improve his status and get his MBA. If he does well enough to get into the bottom half of the 1st, I still see him coming back. Hard to believe given his stats under these conditions, but I think another season and year of Jimbo teachings can make him even more NFL ready. Another year and who knows, maybe he can get top 5 money.
"Fifty percent of the teams in country got beat last week" -BB
Florida State Football will never accept falling in the bottom half
Remember, now 1st day = 1st Rd
effective the 2010 NFL Draft:
1st Day (Thurday) = 1st RD
2nd Day (Friday) = 2nd and 3rd RDs
3rd Day (Saturday) = RDs 4-7
The NFL is doing all they can to make nobody watch this anymore
Back in college we would treat the NFL draft as a National Holiday and throw out of control parties that last Saturday in April.
You have to be joking be with this Thursday night BS
CP7, Please do not go Pro
They want it to be a big Prime Time affair.
Still sucks. Added a few complications to my draft trip this year.
by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 28, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
This is going to be an intricate process
We also have to look at how many teams are going to be drafting 1st day QB’s
Here are the teams that need a new QB:
oakland
Cleveland
Buffalo
Tennessee
St Louis
Carolina
maybe:
Seattle
San Fransisco
washington
Minnesota
denver
Thats a large group. but how many of those teams are going to be willing to take a qb in the first round. Oakland might be dumb enough to stick with jamarcus russell. Cleveland isnt playing Quinn because they’re cheap. Carolina might want to stick with jake. All of the maybe’s could stick with who they have too.
No way Carolina sticks with Jake he's soooo done. That would be a great place for Christian
Or Minnesota after Favre leaves.
i agree
but sometimes gm’s of teams are dumb.
Sure why not
That Sidney Rice has looked amazing with Favre throwing him the ball too.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Doesn't hurt to have 1 of the best OLs also
with McKinnie and Hutchinson on the left side in particular.
Scratch Carolina off the list
They traded away their first-round pick.
Jacksonville is also on that list, imo.
Garrard hasn’t shown his 2007 form enough. Also, GM Gene Smith mentioned Ponder as a QB he liked on the Jags radio show.
by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 28, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought they were going to draft Tebow
And run the wild Jaguar?
Hell no
Gene Smith has gone on the record saying he thinks Tebow isn’t better than a 3rd round prospect. If the Jags take a 1st round QB it’ll either be Locker, Ponder, or Pike.
by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 28, 2009 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Jax is taking Tebow
If they don’t, they lose their franchise.
by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
No
Just last year the Jags had more people in attendance than the Cowboys, Steelers, and Bears.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/attendance/_/year/2008
Also looking like the Dolphins and Colts games in December may end up being sell outs. The idiots will bitch and moan if we don’t take Tebow, but they’ll be back on board when we’re in the playoff hunt again next year.
If you remember a ways back, Weaver did the same thing when it was clear Coughlin had run out of time in Jax and he made some off hand comments concerning Spurrier. How did that end up?
by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 28, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats obviously because
Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Chicago have very low populations…
Maybe Weaver should start giving away Tix
with steaks again.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Attendance will get better. As I said, it's looking like the Colts and Dolphins games may be sold out.
And anyway, where would they go? Roski said the Jags are the “least valued candidate” of the LA stadium group of the team’s they’ve mentioned publicly. All the actual evidence points to either the Chargers, Rams, or Raiders going to LA. San Antonio is a best a lateral move for the NFL. The Bills have Toronto to themselves, the Bucs would never allow a team to move to Orlando, and London is laughable.
Name one team in the modern era that’s moved because of attendance issues, it’s always stadium issues and while the Jags stadium isn’t Jerryworld, it’s still in the Top 10/Top 15 in the league.
by Jonathan Loesche on Oct 28, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Nitpicking...but
Ponder graduated a magna cum laude (3.7 GPA) not summa (3.9)
GREAT article! Can’t wait to distribute this around.
This lack of recognition is sickening…does the media reallly hate us this much?
Regardless, he's smart
The Ledger (Lakeland) and the Sarasota Herald Tribune both recently reported that CP graduated summa cum laude.
My question is ....
… what the hell is the FSU SID doing to push Ponder’s credentials????
Oh … I forgot. We have a completely dysfuncational athletic department that can’t even tout the rare good things that are going on in the football program.
Bob Thomas
the same guy who says we aren’t media and won’t give us credentials but gave them to NoleInsider.com which is now collapsing…
Probably because he lost his job around the time we started…
As for Colt McCoy...
Todd McShay threw out a stat the other day about him. I don’t remember it verbatim, but he said that McCoy’s completion percentage in pass attempts over 10 yards is less than 15% or thereabouts. I’m not erring on the side of exaggeration here; I’m giving conservative numbers. I think it was passes over 7 yards or something instead. Did anyone else catch that? It’s likely posted on his draft card in ESPN’s premium info. That figure can really show how much his receivers and UTexas’ offensive schemes boost his ypc and overall ypg.
I seen that.
Under 10 yrds McCoy’s completion ratio was stupidly high, from 10 to 15 yrds it was about average, over 15 yrds his completion ratio was very, very low. Most of his passes over 15yrds gets picked.
Awww thanks,Carter,
Hello Peter,
Thank you for your interest in the Davey O’Brien Award, and our Semifinalists announcement. It is the passion of fans like you that make college football great. I understand you are upset by Christian Ponder’s omission from our Semifinalist list, so I would like to clarify our selection process for you.
Our Semifinalists are selected by the Davey O’Brien National Selection Committee, an elite group of journalists, broadcasters, commentators and former winners, with the Fan Vote accounting for 5 % of the total vote. The Selection Committee is asked to evaluate each candidate on the criteria of his quarterback skills and athletic ability, academics, his reputation as a team player, character, leadership and sportsmanship. All 120 starting quarterbacks in the FBS division are eligible for Semifinalists selection, and for a complete listing of the Selection Committee, you can visit www.DaveyOBrien.org.
I hope this clarifies any questions or concerns you have, and that you will continue to support the O’Brien Quarterback Award.
Best regards,
Carter
Please
give me Carter’s email address…I’d like to send him something…
that sounded malicious
I mean just another email informing them about how uninformed they are.
Yeah, I got the same email
I went to the list of committee members, but no emails were there. Any way we could get a list of their emails publicly?
by basbalstr101 on Oct 27, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I know that Bob Griese was busy eating a taco when he got his Davey O'Brien Ballot...
Erin Andrews, ESPN/ABC
Greg Archuleta, Albuquerque Journal
Jack Arute, ESPN/ABC
Wendell Barnhouse, Big 12 Conference
Sammy Batten, Fayetteville Observer
Kirk Bohls, Austin American-Statesman
Don Borst, Lindy’s Football Annuals
Olin Buchanan, Rivals.com
Jimmy Burch, Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Jordan Burchette, Maxim
David Campbell, The Plain Dealer (Cleveland)
Chuck Carlton, The Dallas Morning News
Richard Cirminiello, College Football News
Ron Cook, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Lee Corso, ESPN/ABC
Glen Crevier, The Star Tribune
John Davis, Oxford Eagle
Ken Davis, National Freelance Writer
Rece Davis, ESPN/ABC
Tom Dienhart, Yahoo/Rivals
Heather Dinich, ESPN.com
Dennis Dodd, CBS SportsLine
Jim Donnan, ESPN/ABC
Steve Ellis, Tallahassee Democrat
Mark Faller, The Arizona Republic
Pete Fiutak, CollegeFootballNews.com
Pat Forde, ESPN.com
Chris Fowler, ESPN/ABC
Ron Franklin, ESPN/ABC
Ken Goe, The Oregonian
Teddy Greenstein, Chicago Tribune
Vahe Gregorian, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Bob Griese, ESPN/ABC
Tim Griffin, ESPN.com
Wally Hall, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette
Tom Hart, CBS College Sports
Steve Hatchell, The National Football Foundation & College Hall of Fame
Matt Hayes, The Sporting News
John Henderson, Denver Post
Kirk Herbstreit, ESPN/ABC
Mark Hester, The Oregonian
Norm Hitzges, KTCK-AM 1310 The Ticket
Lou Holtz, ESPN/ABC
Desmond Howard, ESPN/ABC
Dan Jenkins, Term Themes
Blair Kerkhoff, Kansas City Star
Mike Kern, Philadelphia Daily News
Doug Lesmerises, The Plain Dealer (Cleveland)
Tom Luicci, Newark Star-Ledger
Verne Lundquist, CBS Sports
Ivan Maisel, ESPN.com
Stewart Mandel, SI.com
Cory McCartney, SportsIllustrated.com
Todd McShay, ESPN/ABC
Jeff Metcalfe, Arizona Republic
Brent Musburger, ESPN/ABC
Brad Nessler, ESPN/ABC
Wendi Nix, ESPN/ABC
Thomas O’Toole, USA Today
Jesse Palmer, ESPN/ABC
Randy Peterson, Des Moines Register
Steve Richardson, Football Writers Association of America
Lenn Robbins, New York Post
Randy Rosetta, Baton Rouge Advocate
Holly Rowe, ESPN/ABC
Lisa Salters, ESPN/ABC
Gregg Sarra, Newsday
Joe Schad, ESPN/ABC
George Schroeder, The Register-Guard
Jeff Shain, PrimeSportsNetwork.com
Mark Snyder, Detroit Free Press
Phil Steele, Phil Steele Publications
Mark Stewart, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Phil Stukenborg, The Commercial Appeal
Bob Sturm, KTCK-AM 1310 The Ticket
Mitch Vingle, Charleston Gazette
Christopher Walsh, Rivals.com
Graham Watson, ESPN.com
Dick Weiss, New York Daily News
Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner Herald
Kelly Whiteside, USA Today
Bud Withers, Seattle Times
Tracy Wolfson, CBS Sports
Doug Zaleski, Muncie Star Press
coon
could i see the link to where u got this info please
Question. Doesn't the list of semi-finalist mean that the winner must come from this list?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Ok guys, in order
yeah but,
I’ve seen her nak… oh wait, guess that’s not special =P
http://twitter.com/dcamp9
ccarlton@dallasnews.com
cirmrt@mindspring.com (might be out of date!)
rcook@post-gazette.com
lee.corso@espn.com
Heather.Dinich@espn.com
http://www.cbssports.com/columns/writers/dodd (have to submit it separately)
Jim.Donnan@espn.com (doubt this dolt can read!)
Mark.Faller@arizonarepublic.com 602-444-4937
petef@collegefootballnews.com
pat.forde@espn.com
chris.fowler@espn.com
ron.franklin@espn.com
Sideline Reporters?
Really?
Is this an award for which Quarterback looks the best while the defense is on the field?
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
HEATHER DINICH ON CHRISTIAN PONDER (new article)
“I voted for Ponder as a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien Award, but he didn’t make the cut. The ACC’s lone representative was Jacory Harris, but I picked Ponder and Duke quarterback Thaddeus Lewis ahead of Harris.” Heather Dinich
Thanks, but please...
I’ve sworn off reading her blog for the rest of the year.
by Fire Machine on Oct 27, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, right?!
Which is it, HEATHERRRRR???
by Fire Machine on Oct 27, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
She also, according to her power rankings thinks Russell Wilson is better than CP.
She has been riding RW hard since the preseason, no pun intended.
Speed is a great asset; but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference.
- Ty Cobb
Edit I read her wrong, my fault, she was stating that RW is better than Yates of UNC.
No argument there.
Speed is a great asset; but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference.
- Ty Cobb
But it wouldnt
surprise me if she was riding every QB in the ACC but Ponder…
Awards
College football awards are a joke. The Heisman is the worst. It’s an irrelevant pile of tin.
Anyone one else email and get a response back
I got a bs response saying…
Thank you for your interest in the Davey O’Brien Award, and our Semifinalists announcement. It is the passion of fans like you that make college football great. I understand you are upset by Christian Ponder’s omission from our Semifinalist list, so I would like to clarify our selection process for you.
Our Semifinalists are selected by the Davey O’Brien National Selection Committee, an elite group of journalists, broadcasters, commentators and former winners, with the Fan Vote accounting for 5 % of the total vote. The Selection Committee is asked to evaluate each candidate on the criteria of his quarterback skills and athletic ability, academics, his reputation as a team player, character, leadership and sportsmanship. All 120 starting quarterbacks in the FBS division are eligible for Semifinalists selection, and for a complete listing of the Selection Committee, you can visit www.DaveyOBrien.org.
I hope this clarifies any questions or concerns you have, and that you will continue to support the O’Brien Quarterback Award.
Best regards,
Carter
"Fifty percent of the teams in country got beat last week" -BB
Florida State Football will never accept falling in the bottom half
oops, my bad
"Fifty percent of the teams in country got beat last week" -BB
Florida State Football will never accept falling in the bottom half
I just emailed the link to Ivan Maisel
I have written him twice before in the past and he has personally responded with a well thought out and suprisingly lenghty response both times.
I doubt he remembers me, but I’ll let you guys know if he responds.
They do a QB of the Week award and a QB Marquee Matchup of the Week
at http://blog.daveyobrien.org/
Fairly worthless drivel.
http://www.voteobrien.org/ for the fan vote.
I know the fan vote is only 5%, but would it be worth promoting a lesser known, but better representative than Tim Tebow if we can’t get Ponder on the list?
I forwarded the article, which is great by the way, to info@daveyobrien
They actually responded, same day.
“Thank you for your interest in the Davey O’Brien Award, and our Semifinalists announcement. It is the passion of fans like you that make college football great. I understand you are upset by Christian Ponder’s omission from our Semifinalist list, so I would like to clarify our selection process for you.
Our Semifinalists are selected by the Davey O’Brien National Selection Committee, an elite group of journalists, broadcasters, commentators and former winners, with the Fan Vote accounting for 5 % of the total vote. The Selection Committee is asked to evaluate each candidate on the criteria of his quarterback skills and athletic ability, academics, his reputation as a team player, character, leadership and sportsmanship. All 120 starting quarterbacks in the FBS division are eligible for Semifinalists selection, and for a complete listing of the Selection Committee, you can visit ”http://www.DaveyOBrien.org" target="_blank">www.DaveyOBrien.org.
I hope this clarifies any questions or concerns you have, and that you will continue to support the O’Brien Quarterback Award.
Best regards,
Carter"
Here’s my response.:
I appreciate you timely response, or even a response at all, certainly unexpected.
However, with Christian Ponder’s omission, I am forced to question your justification of “elite group of journalists, broadcasters, commentators and former winners”. I support the award; however, if Ponder continues to have season like the first half, he will become a more and more glaring omission. It’s unfortuante that Ponder is clearly being punished due to a lackluster win/loss record, a terrible defense, and the media’s fasination with the school’s desire to make a change at head coach. I’d like to believe that Ponder’s educational excellence and on field numbers would speak for themselves; apparently that’s not the case.
I would like to add a different perspective to this obvious snubbing and disrespect of CP7. Just for a moment, let's be selfish and try to think about this from another point of view.
While we all know Ponder is one of the top 3 QB’s in the country today, and we all rightfully feel snubbed that he is not even considered, maybe, just maybe, this is a blessing in disguise for FSU.
The fact that he is under the radar as far as the media is concerned, the fact that our SID is a POS who has done nothing to promote him, the fact that he is not on the DO’Brien or Heisman watch list, and the fact that he plays for a losing (possibly a .500) team, IMAO decreases the chances of him leaving this year and increases the chances of him returning for his senior season.
I have stated before that I expect him to return, but of course my expectations are no better or worse than anyone else’s posting here. But let’s remember he is very smart, he is very well grounded, and he talks to his father David every day. His father did have a very short 1 year career in the NFL, so he’s been there done that, and I expect him to be a very good sounding board and probably encourage his son to for stay another year to maximize his value. (BTW not that anyone really cares, but David Ponder kicked my ass in intramural wrestling and pinned me like a fish in the 2nd period).
Like I said, I am just looking at this from a selfish POV and think that the lack of recognition might turn out to be the best thing that can happen to FSU. We can bitch all we want, but the reality is that it isn’t going to happen for CP7 this year and there is not much we can do about it, so let’s look at it positively.
If he keeps up this pace, or even numbers close to what his production has been, he will undoubtedly be a preseason top contender for both the Heisman and the DO’Brien next year, it will give FSU more national exposure and possibly more TV appearances, and it could very well have a positive effect on recruiting if a Heisman and DO’B contender is leading the charge and running our offense at FSU next year.
Of course there may be a tremendous increase in his NFL stock if he continues putting up these incredible numbers and it might be best for him to leave this year. But I am being greedy and thinking the way this is turning out may be the best thing that has happened at FSU in a long time.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Nice Idea
But then you have guys who were not in the spotlight throughout college who were 1st Rounder’s.
Specifically Joe Flacco (17th overall in 2008) and Josh Freeman (18th overall in 2009). It would be hard to argue that CP7 wouldn’t rate higher than those two in pre-draft rankings.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
I totally agree
as you can see from my posts above. Ponder should stay, break the bank next year, and lead us to our first ACC championship since what feels like eternity. All we need is a new staff on defense and some better effort next year on that side of the ball and I think FSU is very dangerous next year with Ponder.
selfish reasons
Ponder deserves awards now.. not later
by Mr. Seminole on Oct 28, 2009 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed but it ain't gonna happen this year no matter how many votes or emails we or the whole Seminole nation send out. It ain't gonna happen.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
If Ponder goes in the 1st round he'll be our first highly drafted QB that I can think of
Our program could use that type of notoriety. We’ve been starving for it lately.
This is stupid
Ponder is the man he is the best qb right now and he is even in the top 15. That is crap ponder should win the heisman and the davey o brien award. If tebow wins either one of those that would piss me off he cant through a straight pass
This probably deserves it's own thread
But Phil Steele came out with his Mid-Season All-American teams.
He put Dekoda Watson as 3rd team LB
Rodney Hudson and CP did not make any team (1st through 4th)
Wow.
I don't know which is worse
Including Watson, or omitting Hudson.
HIs teams are a joke. He has Spikes 1st team and McClain 4th team….hahahahah
Email Davey O'Brien
For those of you who are upset like most of Seminole Nation, you should email your concerns with the award to the group.
They owe Christian an apology.
And they will simply send you a mass email like the one above.
However, I did reply asking him to forward my letter to their “committee” or to supply me with their email addresses so I could do that. We shall see if I get a response.
by basbalstr101 on Oct 27, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a list of who voted for whom?
Speed is a great asset; but it's greater when it's combined with quickness - and there's a big difference.
- Ty Cobb
THIS JUST IN!!!
CP7 has scored yet another TD against a top defense, while Sweet Baby Jesus has thrown another pick 6!
You can vote Ponder for heisman here with a write in
http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/theheismanvote/2009/thanksVote
Playstation All American, right again! AKA The Vulture per Bobby Bowden
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
Doc, they aren't considering votes for Ponder
They informed the Facebook group that has spearheaded the movement that they are not accepting nominations for Ponder. Question is, why not??
by basbalstr101 on Oct 27, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
heres what the disclaimer on the vote says
- Only those candidates with a legitimate chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in the view of ESPN and Nissan will be added to the leaderboard.
ponder isn’t on the list but dez bryant, Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Tate Forcier, and sam bradford are on the list.
I am glad a Japanese auto maker is making decisions regarding football
Although I probably would trust their judgement over some of the clowns that ESPN employs.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
amazing
isn’t dez bryant ineligible this year for hanging out with primetime?
by beachnole05 on Oct 28, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep...And half of next year.
can you say draft?
Ponder is awsome
It’s a shame that he is not on that list. The only two guys with better numbers are Kase Keenum and Jimmy Clausen, but I’m going to exclude Clausen because the only decent team they have played is USC. It’s just a shame. Jake Locker is on the list and his team is 3-5. The records shouldn’t matter
Can't wait to see
I can’t wait to see if anyone gets responses from the people on the committee and what they have to say…could be interesting!(in a wow your prett stuipd and now what you say has no credibility, kind of way)
We all have recieved responses...
pretty automated and senseless though. They don’t care, but at the end of the season people are bound to take notice when Ponder keeps these stats up.
lets say ponder stays
Lets also say BB retires and JF gets the HC. This means FSU gets a new DC and some other coaches. Can a new DC and coaches have a big enough impact next year to help out the offense that will be coming back. If he take all the QB coming out this year and then comes back next year who will he have to fight with. FSU could make the ACCCG and more with a improved Def. Im not saying we will have a monster Def but with a 15% improvemt we could be 4-2 or 5-1 right now. Next year if he comes back he could get some awards and mroe. Also Hes a smart kid. His stock could triple if he plas his cards right and JF will want to make the most for his first real QB to show all the ones to follow where they can go.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
So because FSU can win more games is ponder being punished.
Hes hands down one of the best QBs in the NCAA. You would think that someone would be standing up for him like his HC. But I guess Bobby has more importen things to do like taking that afternoon nap.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I love the automated response above from the O'Brien Committee
my question is if someone submits something making their argument for someone other than Ponder, will they still get the same automated response?
FSUn Demonstrates How to Lie with Statistics
Don’t take my subject line too seriously. I don’t really mean the lying part, because I agree with your premise and conclusions (I think CP7 might be the best Seminole quarterback since “Chahley” Ward). However, with the exception of the “% of passes intercepted” graphic, your barcharts are constructed in such a way that they exaggerate the differences between the quarterbacks. In all of your bar charts, the vertical axis should begin at zero in order for the reader to get an accurate impression of the differences between quarterbacks RELATIVE to the overall size of the thing being measured. Indeed, your method of constructing these charts is probably the most common way that people try to mislead with statistical graphics: it’s an easy way to take differences that are practically very small and make them look very big.
Of course in many cases (like yours I’m sure) this is unintentional and probably due to software that does the wrong thing by default.
Disagree.
The manner used to display these stats is intended to highlight variation — the only thing that matters in a comparison. Why should a chart depict sub-50% completion percentages if it is outside of the universe of observed data?
Because the purpose of statistics is to illuminate, not to mislead.
And I’m pretty sure that FSUn would agree with that sentiment.
As an example, the completion percentage chart makes it look as if Colt McCoy’s completion rate is 4 1/2 times, or 350% greater than that of Jake Locker, when in fact its only about 30% greater. Of if you prefer, the chart gives the impression that Ponder’s completion rate is (70-50)/(64-50) = 1.43 times that of Clausen, i.e., 43% higher, but in fact it’s only 70/64 = 1.09 times that of Clausen, i.e., 9% higher.
I know that some will say that you can just read the numbers on the axis, but then what is the purpose of the barchart? After all, you could just read the numbers in a table too. The purpose of statistical graphics is to give an accurate visual impression various of the data, but these graphs give a misleading impression and that’s bad.
FWIW, I actually hold a PhD in statistics from FSU, so I have thought about this sort of thing before. There’s a lot of literature on how to construct good graphics, but this is the kind of example we talk about in “Intro Stats for Poets” classes, and that you would find in a good intro stats text.
Understand the strict philosophy.
But in this context, examining between a min/max value for a small, defined subset of data (those nominated for award) — and justifying the INCLUSION of the CP7’s data points within the subset as much as their superiority — I don’t think you can argue this as an effort to mislead.
It seems like you might be splitting hairs.
Anyone with a 5th grade education can look at that graph and cleary determine that McCoy’s completion percentage is not 350% greater than Locker.
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Hmm
Not sure how I feel about this. Isn’t Harris 11X more likely to throw a pick than Ponder on any given pass?
by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
But then again I am not an expert so csfuu may be totally right.
Can the other stats guys weigh in?
by Bud Elliott on Oct 28, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute...
I get where csfuu is coming from… since these “journalists” display the savvy of a 3-4 year old in their judgements — or maybe a Tim Tebow, if we’re being generous — he could be right in his assessment. They’ll only look at the pictures, while not being able to read the chart labels. Good call.
That's why he included:
“However, with the exception of the "% of passes intercepted" graphic, your barcharts are constructed in such a way that they exaggerate the differences between the quarterbacks.”
The graphs do exaggerate the intervals between QBs, but it is not a big deal on something like this, given your explanations that go along. I would suggest that as an expert, it is one of his pet peeves.
www.twitter.com/fsumatthunter
Of course your not an expert FSUn...
The only experts are the members of the O’Brien award committee…
by Nole93 on Oct 28, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have passed this article along to several friends. Very revealing.
My guess is if you asked the casual football fan for the best 5 QB’s, Ponder wouldnt even be a thought due to the lack of effort by the SID and poor reporting by a large faction of national media. However, that is what happens when one company controls the large majority of Sports Media and the challengers (or lack thereof) do nothing to separate themselves from the Group Think.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Also I recieved this email from the Davy O'Brien email....
Just kidding.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
these awards are a mockery
read jimbo’s comments on it. the heisman, et al, is a revenue driven popularity contest. i was hoping the obrien award would be a meritocracy, but clearly it is not.
Ivan Maisel's Chat Today
Steve (Live Oak, FL)
Why do you think Christian Ponder was snubbed as a finalist for the Davey O’Brien Award? Locker hasn’t exactly helped his team win yet he made it with sub par numbers to boot!
Ivan Maisel (2:13 PM)
I think Florida State has been such a disappointment that no one bothered to realize it’s the defense that has taken the Seminoles down.
So basically what he is saying is that no one bothered to do the job that they are paid to do.
Who do I have to sleep with to get a sweet gig like that?
CP7, Please do not go Pro
Unfortunately....
You must have a WINNING record you homers. Anyone can put up good numbers on a losing team. Lots of guys with good numbers were left off this list BECAUSE they play weak opponents or are on losing squads.
I guess you don't read much on here....
Locker does not have a winning record and is a finalist
by UnstopaNole99! on Oct 29, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Who?
Lots of guys with good numbers were left off this list
Possibly guys with respectable numbers, but Ponders numbers are the best / or close to the best in the country across the board. Def. read more on TN instead of trolling around and leaving uninformed comments.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Russel Wilson was left of the list
And HD says he’s better than Ponder….
Just sayin’
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