The Preview: Florida State @ Wake Forest
by Bud Elliott on Nov 13, 2009 1:17 PM EST
in FSU Football
67 comments
Ok, here we go. Wake Forest has lost 4 straight ballgames. FSU just got worked by Clemson. Wake Forest just had to play Georgia Tech, and teams often struggle on defense after playing Tech, probably because of the cut blocks. Florida State just lost Christian Ponder. In his place will be Red-shirt Freshman E.J. Manuel. Both teams must have this ballgame if they want to make a bowl. Wake is staging a blackout for this game. This game is at noon. Yes, a noon blackout. You can't really make this stuff up. It's also senior day for Wake. If FSU loses this game, they will not go to a bowl, unless they pull an Appalachian-State level miracle.
Time: Noon, Eastern
TV: ESPNU
Line: Wake Forest -6
Weather: 55 degrees, light rain
Florida State Offense @ Wake Forest Defense
This is a truly interesting matchup. FSU has a very good offensive line and similarly talented wideouts. They have a good runner in Jermaine Thomas. And they had the best QB in the country in Christian Ponder. But now that QB is done. Their prized left tackle is banged up but will play, and WR Richard Goodman is still somewhat of a question mark.
Before we discuss FSU's offense any more, let's learn a bit about Wake's defense:
They're currently rated #35 in the country. So we're looking at a unit that it is decidedly worse than Miami, UNC, Clemson, and BC (side note here, how amazing is it that FSU's offense did what they did against the # 1, 3, 5, and 16 rated defenses?) But Wake's defense is definitely better than GTech, NC State, and BYU. Oh and its better than USF, who now looks just to have had one of their best games ever against FSU.
Here's Wake's Roster:
DE 55 Tristan Dorty 6-2 250 R-So.
NG 96 Boo Robinson 6-2 295 R-Sr.
DT 51 John Russell 6-4 280 R-Sr.
99 Michael Lockett 6-0 285 R-Sr.
DE 97 Kyle Wilber 6-5 230 R-So.
57 Gelo Orange 6-1 225 R-So.
SLB 26 Jonathan Jones 6-3 240 R-Sr.
MLB 52 Dominique Midgett 6-2 245 R-Sr.
WLB 46 Matt Woodlief 5-11 255 R-Jr.
CB 17 Brandon Ghee 6-0 190 R-Sr.
FS 4 Josh Bush 5-11 195 R-So.
SS 5 Cyhl Quarles 6-3 205 R-So.
CB 6 Kenny Okoro 6-0 190 R-Fr.
You might notice that one of their defensive ends weighs only 230lbs. That's tiny, and as I watched Wake on the games I found, they play their weakside defensive end in a stand-up position. Wake is essentially running a 3-4 defense more often than ever before. It will be very important for FSU to accurately declare the Mike linebacker for protection purposes.
As for this defense, the two defensive tackles are very good. Corner Brandon Ghee is also pretty good. Martin Rickman of BloggerSoDear.com, pointed out that Okoro is also good at the other corner spot, even for a redshirt freshman. Orange is a very quick linebacker off the edge and sometimes puts his hand down as well.
As I said, they are running a multiple-front defense this year and have run a decent bit of zone. I expect them to run all zone against E.J. Manuel. Why?
First, Manuel has good wheels. By running a zone, it will allow Wake to keep 11 eyes on Manuel should he elect to run. Additionally, running a zone means Wake doesn't need to devote a spy to Manuel. Additionally, they probably cannot stick with FSU's wideouts in man coverage, and Manuel has a cannon and can beat them deep if they go solo. Finally, they are going to make Maneul read zone coverage and deliver the ball accurately into the holes of the zone. That's where Manuel could have trouble. FSU doesn't run anything resembling a quality zone and I guarantee you the scout team doesn't run one well either. Wake knows this, and they are betting (correctly) that E.J. doesn't have the rapport with his wideouts that Ponder had. That's expected, as Ponder worked with these guys all the time.
Running the ball here will be huge. I expect FSU to run the ball from the gun and have some success. Remember I said Wake's defensive tackles are excellent. So FSU must try to get a draw there and win on the edge. FSU should be able to consistently block Wake's defensive ends and outside linebackers. Now, with Datko being hurt, that could be easier said than done, but if he's ineffective, I'd expect coach Trickett to insert someone else. The other reason FSU needs to stick with the run, outside of protecting their young quarterback, is to protect their awful defense. We saw Fisher do this last year when the offense really couldn't throw very well and instead they ate clock like crazy (remember NC State last year?).
I expect the offense to have some success, but Wake does play good but not great defense. We'll use the typical 67 play pace (about the average of how many plays a team gets). I'll go with 37 running plays for 167 yards (4.5 per carry), and 30 passing plays (including sacks) for 218 yards. That's 385 yards on 67 plays, or 5.7 yards per play. You might think that isn't very good, but consider that it is actually better than what Miami, Navy, Maryland, NC State, or BC managed. I think that adds up to 28 points, but points are a lot harder to predict than offensive performance, which is measured by yards per play. Inside, we'll look at the other side of the ball and give a final prediction.
Florida State's Defense @ Wake Forest's Offense
How good is Wake's offense? Let's go to the chart:
Ok, so their offense is 26th in the country, and they have been improving. They aren't as good as GTech, Miami, NC State, or BYU, but they are definitely better than BC, UNC, or USF. And FSU is facing them on the road.
Here's a chart I put together, compare what Wake did against similar opponents of FSU's schedule:
You might need to click it to enlarge. For reference, Clemson went for 4.9 per play against Miami, and Wake put up 6.5 per play. That's a huge difference when you extrapolate it over a whole game.
And schematically, Wake matches up tremendously with FSU. Their offense is made to take advantage of over-aggressive undisciplined defenses. In fact, this year they seem to be running a lot of spread-option type stuff. That will frustrate FSU. Additionally, they throw a ton of underneath routes and pick routes and dump-offs to the backs. Their O-Line is average, and their running game isn't tremendous. But senior QB Riley Skinner is pretty good and he knows how to beat this FSU defense. This is just a really poor match-up for FSU's defense. So I expect Wake to get about 65 plays. Of those, they'll have about 30 runs for 190 yards (6.3 per run) and 35 passes for 315 yards (including sacks, that's 9 yards per pass play). That's 505 yards of offense for Wake Forest on only 65 plays, which is 7.8 yards per play. Always tough to tell, but that comes out to 42 points in my book.
Final Prediction: Wake Forest 42, FSU 28. Chance of winning: 30%
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I'll go 35-20 Wake
I think we’ll struggle to run consistently against the 8 man fronts, get behind, and EJ will press throws into zone coverage. Bad culmination of factors.
>>---l>
I Hope I'm Wrong
But I think EJ will throw at least 3 picks
This will be the stat of the game
Ponder had a lousy game against the Wake zone last year. Of course, that Defense was incredibly talented, and may go down as the best defense Wake Forest has ever fielded.
The flip side to that is that our defense won’t show up like it did last season. This will put EJ behind the 8 ball and force him into trying to make plays to catchup.
In other words, 3 is a very good guess.
LOL
I know that’s right!
Playstation All American, right again! AKA The Vulture per Bobby Bowden
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
by DocHoliday2 on Nov 14, 2009 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
well the best thing about this is that we dont know what EJ will do
The bad thing is whe have a good idea what WF will do. I still have faith but Im not going to be suprised this time. What I dont like is that there are 8+ FSU guys out for this game but WF is for the most part health.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
The only thing I am holding out hope for...
Is that our local savior, Coach Fisher, runs an offense to hold the ball – just as FSUn points out we did last year – thus keeping the ball out of Wake’s hands.
Wake will score at will, and will embarass us into taking more shots and chugging more beers than we should. The Wife will get NO help with the kids tomorrow considering this is a noon kick-off and how much I’ll have to drink to stomach the beatdown.
That being said, Fisher recognizes our best D will be not allowing them to have the ball, so as much as we’ve heard all week that we will be running the same O as with Ponder in there, I’m not buying it.
Designed runs to EJ all day w/an occasional bomb from that canon of his. Bombs are much less risky than the dink and dunk stuff that requires reading D’s that are throwing tricky shit at you.
Hold the ball, be conservative, hope for some lucky TO’s our way, and maybe a Greg Reid special return or two. We accomplish all that, and maybe we hang in the game – but still lose.
Go Noles!!!!!!!!!!!!
Pound it on the Ground
You gotta hope we can run, run, run on them and control time of possession. Without a running game Saturday we are in big trouble.
The other keys as always are turnovers and penalties, neither of which have particularly gone in our favor much this year. Lets keep our fingers crossed and settle in for a potentially bumpy ride Saturday afternoon!
Haven't
but he knows his stuff. He’s sharp, plays college ball, but is pretty progressive as well in how he thinks about football.
Cold Shower
Reading this, I just stopped to think just how fall this program has fallen. And it will fall even further. Even sadder is how anyone can defend Bobby. Oh, he HAD good will and the ability to go out on his own terms. He earned it. And he has burned it. Good will is gone. We are 9 years into this debacle and there should be no question of which direction this program should go and without whom.
We are a bad team and are about to finish probably 5-7 and get shellacked by the Gates in Bobby and Mickey’s last game. But that is where we have been led.
We need a proven DC and fast. And a good recruiting class.
4 straight losses to Wake Forest
I can’t wait to hear the Bowden supporters try to defend this at the Maryland game.
He built this program.
The least we could do is allow him the opportunity of losing 5 in a row to Tim Duncan’s alma mater.
by The K-Man on Nov 13, 2009 7:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We're gona lose but,
EJ will be explosive and that will be fun to watch.
He will be explosive in the same way that X was explosive,
2 great plays followed by 1 bonehead play. It’s just too early to expect him to be able to come in and handle everything that he needs to. Having said that, I think the difference between X and EJ is that the latter will realize his potential. I am so excited to see what Jimbo is going to mold him into.
Nice photo there
Too bad you guys aren’t going to make it out of the group stage of the UCL. As much as I don’t like Liverpool, I love watching Torres play, and Gerard too to a lesser extent. I have a good feeling about my Gunners this year though.
by nolesblogger on Nov 13, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think there's another player in the world playing as good as Fabregas right now
by nolesblogger on Nov 14, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Gotta say that I don’t anticipate the bonehead to good play ratio to be very similar. Obviously its his first start, but X at times looked like a true freshman well into his his RS JR year.
Gelo Orange
This guy was really named for the urban legend of those twins named Orange Jello and Lemon Jello?? I’m sure people snicker when they read his name in last name, first name format.
I'd like to see...
Jermaine Thomas to really make a statement in this game. If someone not named Chistian Ponder can step up and put this team on his shoulders, it will speak volumes if he can lead FSU to a W.
If JT runs well (20/150/2) and PROTECTS the BALL, it will help coach Fisher put EJ in a position to succeed, change Wake’s defensive look, and chew the clock and keep our break-instead-of-bend defense off the field.
Also, I want to see JT assert himself for the rest of the season for the sake of next season. I’m still not sold on our “stable of running backs”
by DamonH on Nov 13, 2009 4:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
35-31 FSU
Yes, I’m trying to be positve. I see some of the usual suspects on defense – 80 yard play, blown coverage, over pursuit. I think they will generally tackle better this time around making a difference though.
I think there could be a big play on special teams or maybe even an INT.
EJ will play well I think. Unfortunatly, his first bad game (every qb has them) will be against UF IMO. We’ll have a good running game going with JT tomorrow.
Ok good
I thought I read somewhere he decommitted from FSU and signed with Wake
by montverdenole on Nov 13, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
These stories are my favorite part of the week ...
…. BUT
I think you are significantly underestimating the impact of a quarterback starting his first game.
I would be happy to have a “for entertainment purposes only non-wager” that our offense does not score four touchdowns in this game.
I would place the over/under on our offensive output at about 300 yards and 20 points and even that might be generous.
Feels like 38-14 to me.
Hey thanks. I feel like all our other sports are doing much better lately as our FB program has fallen off the ledge
Maybe I’m wrong it just feels that way.
Our other programs are having great success
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/10/13/1083361/must-read-for-all-seminole-booster
Tomahawk Nation: Top 10 NCAA Football Blog
Ill go with 34-24 Wake.
I think EJ will struggle similar to how Ponder struggles against Wake last year.
My ridiculous Time of Possession Score Predictor
FSU Defense has been on the field a total 226:52 and allowed 272 total points which equates to them allowing 1.2 points per minute. (minus Jax. St. game)
FSU Offense (under Ponder) has been on the field a total of 253:08 and scored 242 total points which equates to them scoring .96 points per minute. (minus Jax. St. game)
FSU is ranked 33rd in TOP at 31:10 and I am not sure how much better you can expect especially without Ponder under center. Wake Forest is ranked 21st in TOP with 31:50. So which team will win TOP, my money is on WF which means points, points, points.
If they hit their 31:50 they will put up 38 points which means our offensive TOP of 28:10 will only be good enough for 27 points. Ponder makes this offense at least a TD better than Manuel so I will stand by my above prediction of 38-20.
Tomahawk Nation: Top 10 NCAA Football Blog
Wild Seminole Time
I think the offensive staff will do everything possible to manage good down and distances for Manuel. That would suggest short, quick passes on first down and lots of running. Perhaps it would be worth seeing what someone like Easterling or maybe even Reed can do in the Single Wing.
In the end, I think we’ll really miss Ponder in the 3rd and long situations. I don’t have the stats available, but Ponder’s conversion rate on 3rd and long had been outstanding all season long. That will cost us points and the win.
What will be the over/under on the attendance at next week’s game? I’m thinking something around 56,500 announced.
Foosball is the devil
GO EJ
I’m only watching to see EJ in his 1st start. I have ZERO faith that our defense will help in any way!
How depressing is this
Almost all of us realize that Wake, honest to God, Wake, is expected to whip our superior athletes again this year. There is no excuse. None.
In any respectable program, heads would roll.
It makes me sick to my stomach to see this is the fruit that is born from loyalty to a man who earned it. But through his own loyalty to his mooching kids and old broken down friends has thumbed his runny nose at all of our good will as well as financial support.
I admit I have turned hard on this subject but enough is enough.
Hoping for great things out of EJ and pray the defense can overcome the severe lack of coaching.
Go Noles! Better days soon.
Extremely depressing.
We’re on the verge of losing 6 straight to our arch rival, and tomorrow could possibly mark 4 straight to a school capable of fitting its entire student body comfortably in Tully Gym; nevertheless, our head coach is posturing to get an extension.
This wonderful fall weather keeps my head out of the oven during these times of great sorrow.
by The K-Man on Nov 14, 2009 1:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
10% chance of rain
Perhaps that’s our best bet. Hope things get sloppy, Wake fumbles a lot, and Wake’s D slips and slides on a lot of FSU misdirection plays.
I’m going against the grain on the O. I look for Jimbo to anticipate 8 in the box and let EJ fire some balls down the field early to try to open the run game so that we can hope to win the TOP battle. I’m expecting more slants than screens (throwing the ball forward rather than sideways). I also look for him to mix up misdirection plays (which requires the D to stay at home) with overload screens to one side of the field giving us a numbers advantage if Wake’s D is staying at home. Once things are loosened up, expect a heavy dose of JT. Throwing the ball down the field will also help us get 10 per and keep us out of thrid down. Maybe throw in some trick plays like a reverse to Reed where he throws it instead of runnning it. I’m also hoping he will send Reliford and move Fortson into the slot to give EJ some big targets to throw to in those holes in the zone in the center of the field.
As for our D, all we can hope for is some freakish luck that will have our guys so out of position that Skinner doesn’t know what the hell they’re doing. Hope for turnovers. Hope Skinner trips over his own lineman in a freakish accident and Wake has to send in his backup without a week of practice. Also hope Greg Reed will take one or two to the house.
Will it be the Wake that lost to Navy and Baylor that shows up or the one that hung tight with Miami & GT? We are not playing a powerhouse, but most of their losses have come on the road. God, how is our D worse than Navy’s? It’s amazing.
I gotta home for the Noles to pull this one out 37-33. In reality though, I think Wake will be hungrier for the W after losing 4 straight (3 on the road) and they’re playing at home, so in all likelihood Wake will win this one.
Just remembered
BB was mumbling about concerns of Ponder being rusty for the Clemson game b/c he hadn’t practiced. EJ should be coming off of two weeks of preparing with the first squad, so maybe his timing won’t be as off as much as people expect. If he throws bad balls, sure it’ll get blamed on timing. But let’s hope for the best. Now that I think about it, maybe the O will look more Ponderish than I initially thought.
Skinner's back-up
I remember him looking very competent in limited duty against Miami. This was after Riley was physically assaulted and had his helmet ripped off.
by The K-Man on Nov 14, 2009 8:14 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Praying for 3 things.
- Our D to play 60 Mins and have faith in the offense. Seems like they didn’t in the Clem game, it was almost like they gave up in the 2nd half.
- For EJ to have faith in the O-line
- Some of CP7’s confidence to rub off on EJ. That never say die mentality!
I had a dream last night that the Spirit of Churchill possessed Jimbo and spoke this pre game speech…
As spoken by the spirit of Curchill through Jimbo Fisher~
“I have, myself, full confidence that if all do their duty, if nothing is neglected, and if the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our honor, to ride out this game for a full 60 Mins ( I prefer 9.3), and to outlive the menace of negativity, if necessary with broken bones, if necessary while blind.
At any rate, that is what we are going to try to do. That is the resolve of True Seminoles every man of them. That is the will of Tomahawk Nation.
The Offense and the Defense, linked together in their cause and in their need, will defend to the end our dignity in this dark our darkest season aiding each other like good comrades to the utmost of their strength.
Even though we have lost home game to teams that used to tremble at the mere thought of facing us, and gave up huge plays to teams with slower smaller and lesser athletes, we shall not flag or fail.
We shall go on to the end, we shall fight for 60 minutes,
we shall fight on offense and defense,
we shall pass with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our honor, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on third and long,
we shall fight on special teams,
we shall fight in the field when in the red zone,
we shall fight with unwavering will and determination;
we shall never surrender,
and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Team or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Tomahawk Nation from all over the world will lend support through faith in our UNCONQURED SPIRIT , armed with the Spear, and Tomahawk Chop and guarded by Chief Osceola and Renegade, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the Defensive coordinator and coaching staff, with all their power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old."
GOD SAVE THE NOLES !
Then as the players begin to exit the locker room BB snaps out of his alzheimers induced cantankerous meandering and yells. " Yeah ! Win one for me dadgummit !"
You never know what this team will do
21-7 and it looks like either Manuel or Skinner may break the all time collegiate passing record.
Playstation All American, right again! AKA The Vulture per Bobby Bowden
TomahawkNation
Better to bear the rebuke of the wise than to hear the song of fools
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