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Men's Basketball Preview and Game Thread: Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Florida State Seminoles, 7pm EST

Img_4552_tiny by TrueCubbie on in FSU Basketball Comment 321 comments

Jacksonville Dolphins at Florida St. Seminoles, Nov 16, 2009 7:00 PM EST


The regular season is upon us--finally. After going 2-0 in the exhibition season, the Seminoles take on the Jacksonville Dolphins in the regular season opener.  Expectations are high in Tallahassee this year and Coach Leonard Hamilton's squad is looking to make a repeat appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

Julogo_medium
vs 


Images from here.

Fsuspear_medium

Game Time: 7pm EST

Television: Sun Sports

**If you are going to the game, bring a canned or non-perishable food item for a free ticket to an upcoming game. All proceeds go to the FSU Dean of Students Food Bank and Second Harvest Food Bank.**

 

Star-divide

After a successful exhibition season, beating two respectable opponents (Georgetown College and Delta St), the Seminoles open the regular season with a repeat match up of last year's opener: Jacksonville. 

In that game, Toney Douglas led a very young squad to it's first of 25 victories. Douglas scored 16 points, had 5 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks as the Seminoles beat the Dolphins 59-57. In his college debut, Chris Singleton had 12 points and 17 rebounds. In that game, the Seminoles set the pattern for the remainder of the year: playing shut down defense limiting opponent's eFG%, getting to the free throw line but turning the ball over a lot.

 

 

The 27.5% TO% eventually decreased to a 22.7 for the season, ranking 291st in the nation. In the two exhibition games this year, the Seminoles have once again turned the ball over on 20+% of their possessions. However, many of the turnovers in the Delta State game were forced passes on alley-oops in a blow out game.

Last year, the Dolphins finished the year 18-14, with a 15-5 record in conference play earning them the Atlantic Sun Conference title. They lost in the second round of the Atlantic Sun tournament to East Tennessee State 85-68, who went on to win the tournament and earn an NCAA bid. ETSU barely lost to Pittsburgh in the opening round of March Madness. Despite the loss in their conference tournament, the Dolphins earned a bid to the NIT, losing to the Gators in the first round 84-62. The Dolphins finished 197th in the Pomeroy ratings, ranking 91st and 204th in offensive and defensive efficiency respectively. The Dolphins have only lost one starter from the team who lined up against the Seminoles a year ago.

Of the 13 players on the Dolphin's team, there are two seniors, three juniors, three sophomores and five freshman. However, their sophomores and juniors saw a lot of playing time last year and have plenty of experience. The tallest player on the Dolphins is Junior Szymon Lukasiak a 6'10 240lbs Center from Krakow, Poland who played at Monteverde Academy. In 9 minutes against the Seminoles, Lukasiak had one FG attempt, one rebound one turnover and one foul. The remainder of the season demonstrated a relatively similar line: 9.5 minutes, 2.2 rebounds and 2.8 points per game. Though, some say that he demonstrated a significant increase in his productivity through the remainder of the season and will likely be a major contributor this year.

Here are the likely starters for the Dolphins:

1    Travis Cohn       SG   6-2    165   Jr.   Decatur, Ala. (Austin)
3    Ben Smith          PG   5-10  165   Sr.  Dublin, Ga. (Dublin)
10  Ayron Hardy       SF   6-5    188   Jr.   Birmingham, Ala. (Huffman)
41  Lehmon Colbert PF   6-6     205   Sr.  Roberta, Ga. (Crawford County)
44  Glenn Powell      C     6-5    200   Fr.   Deerfield Beach, Fla. (Fork Union Academy)

*Some sources have Lukasiak starting over Powell. Given FSU's height advantage, they will likely make that move.

The star on this team is Ben Smith who was names the preseason Atlantic Sun Conference Player of the year. He played 36.2 minutes per game and averaged 16.9 points per game, had an eFG% of 50.4, an ARate of 22.5 and a TO% of 16.2. He also had a steal% of 3.5 and a FTRate of 43.9. Smith is able to compete with the big boys as well; he put up 29 points against Georgia Tech last year. Jacksonville's back court is the strength of their team and will provide Florida State's guards with an early season challenge.

Something that immediately stands out is that the tallest player in their starting lineup is 6'6.  The average height of the Dolphins starters is 6' 3.2". Florida State's starters average 6'8", with the shortest starter standing 6'4". The average could be higher if Xavier Gibson gets the nod over Ryan Reid.

The Seminoles will likely keep the lineup they used in the two exhibition games: Kitchen, Dulkys, Singleton, Reid and Alabi. However, the official release from the Seminoles states that Loucks will get the start. Kitchen's role is hugely different if Loucks or Dulkys starts. Despite the fact that Dulkys got the starts in the exhibition season, look for Loucks to start.

The group as a whole needs to continue to decrease the turnovers and improve its three point shooting. Alabi and Gibson are both off to excellent starts and Singleton has shown his defensive excellence. Despite the fact that the Seminoles had a huge size advantage last year, they were out rebounded by the Dolphins 43-40. This should be considered unacceptable in this year's match up.

Key's To the Game:

1. Limit Turnovers. This team cannot get comfortable with playing sloppy, rushed basketball. The Seminoles are a young team but have lots of experience. With a difficult out of conference schedule, these are must win games that should not be given away because of turnovers.

2. Establish the paint. Alabi should be considered an elite center by the end of the year. Demonstrate that his skills and own the paint against the Dolphins.

3. Shut down Ben Smith. When Ben Smith scores more than 10 points, the Dolphins are 43-23. He is by far their best player and will test Kitchen, Dulkys, Loucks and Snaer early and often. He is relentless and does not come out of the game.

4.  Set Snaer and Shannon up for success. In their collegiate debuts, build the confidence of the freshman. Get them good minutes. Put them in positions to succeed and set the town for the rest of the year. They shouldn't feel pressured to create or prove their 'worth' tonight. This is a long season.

The Seminoles are 44-19 against Jacksonville, winning 15 straight. They have not lost at home to the Dolphins since 1986. Hamilton is 8-0 in season openers at Florida State. There is no reason that the Seminoles shouldn't keep either of those streaks alive. This will likely be a low scoring turnover ridden slow paced game. Both teams play tight man to man defense. But given the significant size advantage, there is no reason that the Seminoles can't use that to their advantage.

Prediction: Seminoles 68 Dolphins 60

Officials: Tony Dawkins (Referee), Brent Hampton and Brian Dorsey (Umpires). Dawkins typically calls games in the Colonial Athletic Association and the Atlantic-10. This will be his first Florida State game. He gives the home team a slight advantage, typically a 2 foul per game advantage. Hampton is an Atlantic Sun referee and Dorsey is an ACC referee and both have been in the league since 1996. Dorsey and Hampton typically call relatively fair games with a 1-2 foul differential for the home team. However, Hampton has been very favorable to the home team so far this year.

Television: Sun Sports. 7pm EST.  If you don't have Sun Sports, check out justin.tv and atdhe.net. Sirius Radio typically carries the game as well.

Go NOLES!!!

Cheers,

TC

Please use this thread for your pregame comments and game thread.

0 recs  |  Comment 321 comments |

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Comments

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excellent write up as usual

I’ll be at the game.

As far as the keys to the game that you’ve mentioned, I think you are pretty spot on.

I would add that four factors stat that jumped out at me from the meeting last season was the number and frequency of offensive rebounds allowed. (16 offensive rebounds)

Other than the fact that FSU likes to block shots ( having the helpside post player rotating off his man can lead to a couple of extra put backs), or if a team is shooting an excessive amount of 3 pointers with long rebounds, there is really no excuse for FSU failing to mop up on the defensive boards.

FSU has the size to control the glass and limit Jax’s second chance points, and plays pretty tight man defense for the most part, which is usually advantageous (as compared to zone) in terms of making indentify the guy you are supposed to box out.

If FSU can limit the second chance possessions, this game shouldn’t be the nail biter that last years ended up being. FSU is much more balanced in terms of scoring, and I expect them to score with more consistency and frequency than last season, not withstanding the loss of T.D.

Here is a link to last years recap, FWIW-

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=283200294

I would also point out that TD was 7-13 from the free throw line in the Jax game last year, which was pretty awful for him (he shot 81% overall from the charity stripe for the year).

by fsu44 on Nov 16, 2009 1:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Planning to be at the game as well

Will record the game at home to put together highlights later on

by pbysh on Nov 16, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

72-45

Just because I love to throw out absurd scores

by Trus1te on Nov 16, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work, TC

I hope we play within ourselves and dictate the tempo. I also want to see us rebound the ball well with good technique, not just because we are taller.

Go Noles!

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 4:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

This just in...

Coach Hamilton told reporters that making the NCAA Tournament this year will not affect his decision as to whether or not he returns to coach next year.

by El Soro on Nov 16, 2009 6:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Not sure if I follow...

…but Hamilton did just sign a 5 year 1.5 million per year contract last year. Unlikely that he could get more elsewhere.

www.Tomahawknation.com

by TrueCubbie on Nov 16, 2009 6:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bobby Bowden just said that making a bowl game won’t affect his decision this year.

by evenflow58 on Nov 16, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Renegade_no_03

if you’re in here, we need a photoshop of Alabi saying “give me back my son”

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 7:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

He has worked a lot on his shot.

It is important for Reid to hit those so defender don’t just camp in the paint. We can get better penetration with the guards and the double team to Alabi will take longer to get there.

by marlins44 on Nov 16, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Snaer turned down UCLA, et al. to go to FSU?

He must adhere to the El Soro philosophy of college selection:

“Go as far away from home as you can.”

by El Soro on Nov 16, 2009 7:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice job of making inside out passes. This is something I feel FSU has not done well in the pass. It doesn’t look like our big men are afraid to make that pass.

by evenflow58 on Nov 16, 2009 7:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

At the 1st TV timeout

We are doing very well and I am especially encouraged by the single turnover.

For those who don’t remember or weren’t around, last season we opened up the early part o the season with turnovers on as many as 35% of our possessions. It was basically ridiculous in the early going.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 7:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The offense is much better. Everybody is more confident in their passes. The ball is moving at a much quicker rate.

by evenflow58 on Nov 16, 2009 7:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Our length is really going to make it tough for team's to score consistently on us

As long as we don’t turn the ball over like crazy, we will be holding most clubs to scoring in the 50’s.

by Zach_Nole on Nov 16, 2009 7:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Seeing these replays of Toney Douglas

makes me cry a little

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:38 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

100% agree.

This group is not up to standards. They need more tryouts.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It always bothered me that we called them that...

…I mean, they’re there for my….entertainment, and all I could think of was Bea Arthur.

But then again, there’s plenty of beer at the Tucker Center.

by El Soro on Nov 16, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great D

By Loucks on that possession, and great feed.
Snaer looks very athletic, but a little undisciplined

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:42 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Singleton has very active hands. I love seeing that.

by evenflow58 on Nov 16, 2009 7:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's a good thing

Tallahassee is a bigger hotbed for country music than Nashville or Austin, otherwise we’d have lost Snaer to Vandy or UT

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:45 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

FSUncensored

Out of curiosity, how many Football fans cross over into the basketball realm? Not very much enthusiasm for Nole BBall in my area…

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I loved FSU basketball way more than football...

I could sit on the floor in front the band, drink at the game, yell directly at the players.

Plus there was never any bloviating about how good we were going to be preceding another mediocre season.

by El Soro on Nov 16, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Timeout FSU

Hamilton looking like he will have to sacrifice 3 virgins to atone for the sins of our backcourt.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 7:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Is it just me?

Our are these commentators borderline retarted?
“What is it the kids say? That’s just rick”
I’m 28 and have never heard that expression….
Also, I thought Alabi’s last name was accented on the 2nd syllable (Ah-LA-bee)…them saying AH-la-bee over and over is driving me insane

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I could have sworn

Ryan Reid was a senior last year. He’s like the Riley Skinner of FSU basketball.
Impressed with Snaer…kid is gonna be BIG time

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 7:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Yes

except I hope Ryan isn’t taking nude pictures of himself and posting them on facebook.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why’s that? Maybe it turns into a career for him.

by evenflow58 on Nov 16, 2009 7:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Woah

You cannot make a comment like that then not expound.
Did I miss something?

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Riley Skinner

as a freshman took nudes of himself and put them on facebook (this was like 2005). Guy likes to party.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

11 turnovers, 8 occurring in the final 6:30

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 8:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I started watching...

around the 10 minute mark. Looks to me like same ol’ story when the Noles matchup with opponents like JU. Lotsa turnovers, kinda sloppy and rushed, but athleticism reigns supreme…

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I'm aware

I’m an alum of an A-Sun school…

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I played baseball at Lipscomb.

Who is traveling to Ohio State, Cincinatti, and Arizona this year…

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty excited

about it. They went into Oklahoma last year and put a whipping on the Sooners, but it’s gonna be a much larger task getting by any of those 3 teams. I’m happy just to see them getting in the mix. They have a tremendous young coach who’ll be a hot commodity one day

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Watching Snaer...

makes my pants tighter. I hope he sticks around.

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What's the over/under

On how many days before Terry Bowden calls NuKeese Richardson and offers him a scholly to attend UNA?

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 8:37 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Thought this game was on wednesday for some reason. Looks like a good start of the season.

by CelticPride on Nov 16, 2009 8:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

If this team could stick together for a couple of years, could make a really serious run in the NCAA tournament. Have added three nice players to next year's class. If Kreft gets in.

The 2011 recruiting class has some big prospects considering us. A couple of kids from Chicago as a matter of fact…might check them out if they play any tournaments in the city.

www.Tomahawknation.com

by TrueCubbie on Nov 16, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

3-5 0-1 from 3

I’m just looking at stats…

by CelticPride on Nov 16, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Cubbie,

Do you go to the Riverview Tavern in Roscoe Village for the FSU football games?

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lived there

For 8 months in 2007. Hated it. Snow blows…moved back to Pensacola

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I know it’s really premature, but I think that if Coach Ham keeps these guys focused, we’re gonna cause some people some trouble in the ACC

by El Soro on Nov 16, 2009 9:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I also like or early season schedule

Especially the old-spice classic. Going up against some “named schools” that aren’t necessarily Elite.

by CelticPride on Nov 16, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow...

IMO it’s too early to crown them as “back”. I think the Wildcat fans are in for a bigtime letdown. Look for a bounceback in 2011

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

That is our largest margin of victory

Since we beat Maine in 2008!

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Nov 16, 2009 9:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Huge win. Love it. This is really exciting.

This is a distinctly different team than last year and we should all be excited. This team has a lot of room to grow and will be a force in the ACC. Very patient looking offense. Nice inside out work. Tenacious defense. Great rebounding. But, we have to shoot the ball better and get rid of the turnovers.

www.Tomahawknation.com

by TrueCubbie on Nov 16, 2009 9:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Didn't you hear?

We only gave up 28 at Wake. Our defense is back! MNC 2010!

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I was being sarcastic

The best description of our defense is like when your dog has diarrhea. One day, he lays a solid turd.

It’s an improvement, but it’s still shit.

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm impressed

typical FSU mistakes, but overall, they look good for being so young.

by DamonH on Nov 16, 2009 9:17 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

last year we would have won this by 2 :)

(shoot better than 62%? – methinks you have high expectations. :) )

 I have high hopes for this team!

by CelticPride on Nov 16, 2009 9:18 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

great game

Outside of the last five minutes of the first half FSU was dominant. Snaer was amazing, can’t remember any freshmen these last few yeas that has looked so polished in their first game. I know Singleton was 0-5 from the free throw line, but his first two or three shots rattled in and out he was just in a funk. Loukus is such a pretty passer.

by marlins44 on Nov 16, 2009 10:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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