Thinking about thoughts, fourth downs, and the nature of evidence

"A very good examination of human rationality and risk aversion in the decision making process."

about 2 years ago Bud Elliott 18 comments 0 recs |

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Fascinating stuff.

by pbysh on Nov 19, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions

Interesting... people often forget a few factors though

high success rate average on 4th doesn’t take into consideration situational strategies and game flow.

e.g. a team defends 4th and 2 differently with their back to wall on their half of the 50yrd line. or in the middle of a close game, than when they have to defend one last play in the ball game against a team that doesn’t need to score.

In the end these factors should be considered, along with defensive tendency (situationaly), and the difference in the odds if you punt and defend.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Nov 19, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions

I think a lot of FSUn’s statistics take a variety of these variables in consideration, including time last in the half/game, field position, point differential, etc.

Actually, I think FSUn posted a link to a thesis some kid from somewhere like Stanford did on this exact issue, and more specifically how does risk-aversion effect the decision.

by Brandon B on Nov 19, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions

this article features someone elses risk aversion info not Fsun's he's just linking to it.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Nov 20, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

Has anyone considered that the real coaching error by Bellichek

…was not giving up the immediate touchdown to allow your offense to go back out there and try for the GW FG?

by ricobert1 on Nov 19, 2009 2:06 PM EST reply actions

yet another good angle...though not probible with minimal time left.

Yeah, right!

by truecolors on Nov 19, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

interesting take

I think the article states that teams score a touchdown approximately 50 percent of the time when faced with the situation the Colts had after NE failed to convert.

I think the team specific adjustments (most notably peyton manning in the 2 minute drill) made the decision to go for it that much stronger.

by fsu44 on Nov 19, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions

Would have had about 1:51 or so left on ensuing kickoff

albeit, with no timeouts. Still I think that’s enough time to go 30-45 yards to setup the FG. This would’ve been the BALLSIEST move ever.

by ricobert1 on Nov 19, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions

Wouldn't the NFL sh*t if one of the teams did a "gator flop" to let the other team score. I think all hell would break loose at NFL headquarters.

>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em

by FrankDNole on Nov 19, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

Not at all

In fact, it happened in the Green-Bay v. Denver super bowl.

Definitely strategic. Teams also take intentional safeties.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by Bud Elliott on Nov 19, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly!

Wasn’t it NE that hiked the ball literally into the goal post to force a safety? What game was that?

by ricobert1 on Nov 19, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

denver, 2003

by tdchrisdavis on Nov 19, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

While not as obvious

that actually happened this past weekend. They tried to let MJD score a TD. The coaches were told not to tackle him at all. The story became famous because MJD pulled a Westbrook. So yeah, it def still happens.

by Miaminole on Nov 19, 2009 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

All of you are correct that it has and does happen, I just think the uptight NFL probably doesn't ike it, even though they have never made an issue of it. And yes it is good strategy sometimes not to let a punt get blocked and take the safety.

I am also sure they were not too happy, although nothing was said here either, with the apologies to the fantasy football players for downing it at the one yard line.

They are always so cognizant of the gambling implications that you know it has to be a concern, although I have never seen any that can be even be considered in any way improper.

I always just think of the original gator flop when all the players just fell down to the ground against UM to let Reeves get a passing record. SCUMBAGS. But it would be cool if Noles did it, because I know we wouldn’t flop, we would just be playing our base defense.

>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em

by FrankDNole on Nov 19, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Also if I remember correctly, Holmgren admitted he thought it was 1st down when it was actually second down,

and that he might not have called it if he realized it was 2nd. Regardless, irrelevant and probably the right call anyway because there were less than 2 minutes to go, just like in the example above.

>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em

by FrankDNole on Nov 19, 2009 3:56 PM EST up reply actions