Note: I use this column to examine the college football landscape and the weekend ahead. The use of gambling numbers helps to show the public perception of a team and of their respective conferences. Even if you don't gamble, or are against gambling, this is worth a read solely because it will keep you informed of the happenings with many of college football's teams. Think of this as your weekend primer!
Welcome to another edition of For Entertainment Purposes Only! Last year, this rather informal column went 251-190 (57%) +41.0 That's 251 wins and 190 losses for a winning percentage of 57%. If you were wagering $100 fake dollars per game, you would have netted $4100 at season's end. But since these are fake wagers, I refer to our wager amount as "units." First though, a disclaimer:
I want to emphasize that I don't endorse gambling, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. Always check with your local, state, or federal laws to determine the legality of wagering.
First I discussed some wagers for conference and division winners. Then I went over season win totals. Vegas set the number, I called it over or under! In Week 1 I went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Week 2 I went 42-25 (63%), +16.32 Units. Week 3 was 34-27. +4.50 (+5.7 College, -1.2 NFL). Week 4 was 50-34, +13.62 Week 5 I went 50-33 (60%) for +17.48 Units (25-31, -4.42 College, and 24-2, +21.9 Units in the NFL). Week 6 I went 27-21 (56%) +4.23 , Week 7 I went 39-38 (51%), -1.35. Week 8, I got crushed, going 46-60, -19.25. Last week, I went 37-28, +7.9 For the season, I sit at 345-289, +37.15. If I finish at 55% over 500 selections, I'll be absolutely elated. I like to play a lot of games to grind out the variance. The swings over 500 games aren't nearly as dramatic as they are over 100. It's as simple as grinding out the sample set.
Keep in mind that I have hit some ML Dogs, so the ROI is higher than the percentage would indicate.
This week, I'll discuss which games I bet on Sunday night when the opening lines come out, and which games I decided to wait out in pursuit of a more favorable line. This week features actual comments.
Ok, first the stuff I hit early. Remember that I always post these in the previous week's column as I bet them in real time.
- Clemson -8 over FSU. I've said all week I think the 'Noles get blown out.
- Pitt -19.5 Pitt seems to be more real now and I expect them to handle 'Cse easily. Plus, in a stroke of luck, Cuse's best player quit the team during the week!
- La Tech +20 (Friday!) I think Boise could go down. La Tech is well coached.
- Oklahoma State -7 Possible letdown but Iowa State isn't any good.
- WVU -19.5 WVU is off extra rest and Louisville is terrible. This is now available at 17!
- Idaho +7 People are laying points with Fresno on the road? Really?
- Bowling Green +4 Already won this (wed night)
- NIU -21 Won this Thursday night
- Michigan State -17 Good get, line is now 20.5. WMU isn't special and Mich State is the 4th or 5th best B10 team.
- Air Force -16.5 They do everything Army does but they do it better.
- Oklahoma -6 I am totally a square here. Nebraska can't score and I think OU wins by 12+
- Maryland +7.5 Awesome play here, now at +6.5 NC State isn't special.
- Houston -3 Why oh why is Tulsa favored? I think Houston should be favored by 10+ Tulsa isn't good.
So, my initial thoughts are that I should have waited on La Tech, Oklahoma, WVU, Idaho, and Houston, but got good lines on the rest and won my 1st two. I hate being square but I have to play my system!
- Boise Under 51 People underrate Boise's defense. Offense might not click cross country. I think we see a 30-14 Boise win.
- Mich State Over 54 MSU's offense is underrated.
- Pitt Over 50, again, Pitt's offense is underrated. Pitt blows them out 52-7
- Iowa -15.5. Northwestern still doesn't play defense, Iowa does. Also, under 45 here.
- Minnesota over 51.5, and Illinois +7 +100 Minnesota's offense well coached
- NC State over 56, score fest between them and Maryland
- Georgia Tech over 60. GTech's offense is legit and I know Wake's seen it before, but I could see 42-27
- Weird game here, UNC is favored by ten over Duke. I think UNC blows them out but I missed the right #, so I'll play over 45.5
- Missouri under 45.5, maybe we get some high winds, maybe neither team scores?
- UF -35 +100 and Under 48? Yes, Vanderbilt is that bad.
- Wyoming +13 hosting BYU? Yes, take it. I also considered Under here but passed.
- Rice +18 and Under 57, SMU is on a letdown track!
- Tulane +7 and Over 56.5, as UTep seems to be in turmoil right now.
- Alabama -7 and over 40 -105. Roll Tide, LSU is poorly coached.
- Texas under 49, as I am thinking 40-3 shutout.
- Akron +3.5 Why is Kent State laying points on the road?
- Kansas -2.5 and Under 57.5 This is still Kansas and Kansas State and KU will win this state rivalry. Again.
- San Diego State +24.5 and and Under 49 One of these days, they'll get back to playing solid defense and average offense. Let's hope that is Saturday
- Idaho Over 67.5 I see a 40-37 game
- New Mexico +28 and Under 47 Utah just can't score points!
- I am an idiot for missing the huge move, but Arizona -32 (they play Wash State, ugh)
- Cal over 60- two good offenses and two iffy defenses (Oregon State)
- UCLA -4. Their defense gives Locker of Washington fits.
- Stanford +7.5 +100 and Over 58.5 I see a 35-31 type game.
- I like Colorado +3 +100 at home to beat Texas A&M
- Virginia +14 and Under 46.5... booooooring game in front of 30K
- Memphis +25.5 +100... Tennessee is due for a letdown game.
- Arizona State +10.5 USC Hangover
- Purdue +6 and Under 54... Michigan on a slide and Can't score!
- Colorado State Over 61.5 neither them not UNLV even know what defense is.
And I'll have NFL stuff up later. Also, the preview for the Clemson game will be up this afternoon.