Another look at Christian Ponder
by mhauer on Dec 16, 2009 4:55 PM EST
29 comments
Christian Ponder had a great 2009 season until suffering a shoulder injury against Clemson. Looking at the stats on how Christian Ponder stacked up for the year, he finished 18th in the Country in passer efficiency. Something does not feel right about that rating. All educated seminole fans know that Christian Ponder is much better than the 18th ranked QB in the country.
Looking at the list of the top 25 quarterbacks, it becomes blatantly obvious that many of the top passers this year were passing against subpar defenses. This is how players like Nathan Enderle of Idaho finish the year with a passer rating of 155.75. This got me thinking about how to even the playing field in terms of comparing passer efficiencies.
Gathering the data for the game stats for the top 25 QBs in the country (and Greg McElroy and Jacory Harris) and comparing the passer rating for a QB in a game against the defensive FEI of the teams he faced, I constructed a regression test to see how a Quarterback would fare against a hypothetical number 1 defense.
The table below has the top 10 QBs in the country and a few other recognizable ones and their respective passer ratings against a hypothetical number 1 defense.
| QB | School | Rating | Rank |
| Kellen Moore | Boise St | 150.08 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | Florida State | 143.99 | 2 |
| Tony Pike | Cincinnati | 141.10 | 3 |
| Sean Canfield | Oregon St | 135.11 | 4 |
| Tyrod Taylor | Virginia Tech | 134.96 | 5 |
| Max Hall | BYU | 134.46 | 6 |
| Tim Tebow | Florida | 131.83 | 7 |
| Andy Dalton | TCU | 127.17 | 8 |
| Chandler Harnish | N. Illinois | 126.42 | 9 |
| Riley Skinner | Wake Forest | 125.95 | 10 |
| Russell Wilson | NC State | 124.64 | 12 |
| Case Keenum | Houston | 123.70 | 14 |
| Jacory Harris | U of Miami | 117.78 | 15 |
| Greg McElroy | Alabama | 112.33 | 16 |
| Ryan Mallett | Arkansas | 108.88 | 18 |
| Colt McCoy | Texas | 108.23 | 20 |
| Jimmy Clausen | Notre Dame | 96.22 | 22 |
| Nathan Enderle | Idaho | 85.27 | 24 |
As you can see, Christian Ponder was phenomenal this year, exactly what Florida State fans have known all along. But based on these numbers, I would assume that Colt McCoy is not going to fare too well against Alabama, and many of the perceived top QB prospects in the country who are entering the NFL draft might not do so hot once they start throwing against the elite NFL defenses.
Note: This is not for all 120 Division I-A Quarterbacks, just the top 25 Quarterbacks by Passer Efficiency re-ranked by rating against a number 1 Defense FEI.
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Can you go into a little more detail on how you constructed a regression test to see how a Quarterback would fare against a hypothetical number 1 defense?
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I'd appreciate that too..
Maybe share some proof of statistical significance (p-values) and goodness of fit (R-squared values).
The regression was fit for each individual qb, so sample sizes were super small (8-13 range). Because of that r-squared values were small. I’ll get back to you on significance. This was more or less for illustrative purposes.
I got the regression equation equation for QB rating and solved with a defensive FEI of 1. The numbers for the QB ratings are the results of the equations.
not trying to troll here, but “illustrative purposes” only makes in an a “hypothetical” statistical discussion. This seems presented as an analysis of what has been done but its an analysis of what could-be.
by NorthernHaze on Dec 18, 2009 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Big question: can Ponder stay healthy?
The guy is a warrior but for being so smart he needs to learn to slide. Don’t be a hero, just get up for the next play. He’s been injured two years in a row now. The line should be much better, but we need him for all 12 next year.
We need him for all 14
I’m planning on watching FSU win the ACC…
"We'll win games with talent. We'll win championships with character."
-Jimbo Fisher
by FloridaStateJay on Dec 17, 2009 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Dec 17, 2009 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
I think this will be somewhat resolved when we aren't fighting like dogs to beat teams like JSU.
Seriously, I think you want your quarterback to take risks when the game is on the line… so my opinion is that there’s nothing wrong with Ponder’s demeanor, there was a problem with us having to fight tooth and nail against every team we faced.
With a serviceable defense (hopefully) next year, Ponder should be playing about half as many snaps while the outcome is still in question, which leads to a decreased probability of him getting hurt.
Would love to see your test with previous years ratings
to see if results reflect current NFL QBs like Russel, Young, Ryan, Stafford, Quinn etc.
mhauer:
I did something like this a while back comparing Ponder’s first year performance to the first year performance of McCoy & Bradford:
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/9/18/1036199/ponder-an-elite-quarterback
Would love to see this again!
I’m working on a big project to put together a “FAQ” and a TN best hits. Need this in there.
by Bud Elliott on Dec 17, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
for sure!
Do you mean see this again in terms of Ponder’s 09 stats? maybe i should throw EJ in there and compare to Tebow & McCoy (and maybe Kellen Moore)
Passer Rating
I’ve moved away from passer rating in college, but value its measurement in NFL. It weights completion percentage and yards per completion while apparently not factoring INT negatively enough, which gives someone like Tyrod or Tebag a heavy advantage when they go 12-15 for 250 by throwing 6yd slants to Percy Harvin and then the WR gets 50 yds after catch.
IMO, there should be a minimum of avg 28-30 pass attempts per game and the weight of defenses faced like you’ve applied to get the new value and perhaps a heavier weight on INT (see: Harris, Jacory), thereby factoring the actual ‘passers’ into the passer rating.
Call it the Marcus Outzen factor if you like.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Dec 17, 2009 9:28 AM EST reply actions
So you're passer rating would give a boost to Jacory Harris?
Harris floats a jumpball down the middle of the field on every other play. Those work from time to time because he has beasts for WR’s to throw to.
Against
Weight of INTs seem to not factor in PR bc the top guys all have high yd/comp numbers, which Jacory gets a huge bump thanks to fast WR and Tearbow got bc his swing passes and wheel routes get 50 extra yards. In essence it seems that passer rating = yards per completion.
I would want INTs to have a heavier negative effect, which is why I mentioned Jacory.
"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"...Jimmy Buffett
by The Ryno and I Know on Dec 17, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
RE: PONDER INJURY UPDATE
Possibly I missed it, but does anyone know how often a Q.B. injury like Ponder comes back 100% and how long it takes?Also, the well- written article mentions the Clemson injury. I had read somewhere post- game that he had cracked ribs going into that game? Any imput? Be difficult to make your normal throws if true.If he can’t go, or is very rusty, it will impact 2010.I believe him to be in the top 5 F.S.U QB’S I’ve watched since pre- BOWDEN.
Here is a story about his shoulder injury
In the Treatment Room: Florida State’s Christian Ponder Separates Shoulder in Loss to Clemson Tigers
As for his ribs I think they will be fine by then but I’m not a doctor
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
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