Why I'm realistic about next year's defense
by RaysnNoles on Dec 29, 2009 3:11 PM EST
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Much like Wild@Heart Nole I am excited about next year’s defense but am not as equally optimistic as him with regards to results and rankings.
The following in a purely statistical overview of team’s defensive improvements year over year. When looking at them you should completely clear any thoughts of coaching turnover, player turnover, experience, schemes or similar factors and focus clearly on the stats.
Please keep in mind that Florida State’s Defense currently sits at 96th
The first table depicts all team defenses that improved 30 or more ranking positions in the following year regardless of where the finished the prior year.
From 2007-2008 there were 23 teams that accomplished this feat (19.3% of FBS Teams) and from 2008-2009 there were only 13 teams to improve 30+ spots (10.8% of FBS Teams).
So according to these charts for FSU to have a defense jump 30+ spots and be ranked in the Top 60 we would have to accomplish something that only ~15% of teams have done in the past 2 years.
The next table depicts team defenses that were ranked 90th or worse the previous year and then improved 30 or more ranking positions in the following year. (Since I predict FSU D to finish no better than 90th this season)
So of the teams with a defense ranked 90th or worse from 2007-2008 there was only 1 team that cracked the Top 50 and that team had to improve by nearly 50% to achieve that. From 2008-2009 there were 3 teams to break into the Top 50 after be ranked 90th or worse but they had to improve by 67.9%, 55.3% and 48.5% to achieve that.
So according to these charts for FSU to have a defense go from 90th or worse to Top 50 we would have to accomplish something that only 10.2% of teams ranked 90th or worse have done in the past 2 years.
The last table depicts team defenses that were ranked in the Top 40 and where they were ranked the previous year.
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So from 2007-2008 a total of 23 of the 40 teams (57.5%) were ranked in the Top 40 the previous year with 12 of the remaining 17 teams ranked in the Top 60 and no teams ranked outside the Top 85.
From 2008-2009 a total of 26 of the 40 teams (65.5%) were ranked in the Top 40 the previous year with 8 of the remaining 14 teams ranked in the Top 60 and 1 team ranked 86th and the last ranked 109th.
That being said there has been only 1 team in the last 2 years to go from outside the Top 90 and into the Top 40.
I realize the sample size (3 years worth of data) is not ideal but it is all that is available. Florida State’s defense has a tremendous challenge in front of them and I think they will be able to accomplish great things. Just not in 2010.
Source: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei (2009 stats are not complete until after all Bowl games are completed so there will be variance upon season’s end)
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Thanks for writing this!
Although I think I understand why you made this statement:
“When looking at them you should completely clear any thoughts of coaching turnover, player turnover, experience, schemes or similar factors and focus clearly on the stats.”
I can’t justify not thinking about it after reading your post. I would hazard a guess that very few teams in that timespan also had the depth and breadth of coaching issues FSU did, while also having the talent available to their disposal, while also having the supposidly high-caliber coaches coming in. I understand the need to clear the mind of those kind of issues, at least I think it was because it would be waaayyy to cumbersome and perhaps impossible due to lack of data; however, it is something to be considered that could provide an anomaly to the trends you are demonstrating.
No doubt though, as you well pointed out, that it would be a rare occurence. Especially since I cannot think of a reason why more year’s worth of data would prove much of a difference….unless the two years you selected was more of the anomaly than the idea of a team jumping from sub 90 to 40+. I’d tend to think that wouldn’t be the case though.
Why didn’t I think about setting up trends and trying to apply analytical procedure type (if you will) conclustions and questions before…
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
My question is, what the heck happened ant Central Michigan then?
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
Funny you should ask
In 2007 they hired a new DC/DB coach, LB coach, DT coach and S&C coach.
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
hehehe
DId they face a bunch of teams that had poor offenses the follow that year compared to the last?
Maybe I should stop asking and help people by researching too. Problem is, I really don’t have much success google-ing things.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
I for the life of me tried to factor in SOS to rankings going up or down and could find no such correlation
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Improvement should be vast
Our final defensive rank indicates our terrible coaching, method and schemes, what our defensive rank does not indicate is our talent, which isn’t near the level we are used to or where it needs to be. If you look at the teams ranked near our unit, there is no way those teams have a similar talent level. With better than average talent and better than average coaching our unit should be better than average.
by NationWideNole on Dec 29, 2009 3:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Hey, but thanks for the first post, (no sarcasm) and welcome.
At least you had though about it, better than just saying “ok” and moving right along.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
I like to see what Nebraska did in just two years!!
- to the #8 defense. Do we have a Suh on the roster???
by noles 4 life u dig? on Dec 29, 2009 4:03 PM EST reply actions
108 defense to the #8 defense ( not sure why it posted all weird)
by noles 4 life u dig? on Dec 29, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think this scenario is more likely
Move up about 35-40 spots next year in 2010. Have to factor in the learning curve associated with learning Stoops’ scheme, despite the talent we have. Then look for us to make the leap in 2011 to top 25 defense…
We have Bradham, Reid, McAllister, McDaniel
I know your Q was rhetorical, but hey, they are there for the coaching.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
We have potential awesomeness on our field.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
Potential...
Where have I heard that before….hmmm…
Where have you heard it before? Are you just associating a word with an outcome strictly because of the word used?
Honestly, there must have been millions of people mention someone having potential and that person with the “potential” panning out.
If you are associating the outcome of failure because certain coaches used it and were never able to realize the players potential then we are talking about something else. That has more to do with the coach than the word being used.
I will not stop using the word potential. It means capable, probable, etc. I don’t know why people have this problem with the word. Is like me saying, “dont say someone has talent” because everytime someone says that, the player doesn’t end up doing well.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
The word 'potential' is completly out of my vocabulary
The last 8 years has forced that
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Its a shame to allow old men and a man with shiny red shoes to rob you of your free conscience to use a vocabulary word.
Still, potential is nothing more than a word. It is no curse. The coaches were the kiss of death for the players potential, not the word.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
First things, excellent write-up
Secondly…
Year – FSU Defensive FEI
2007 – 34
2008 – 23
2009 – 96
I’d be interested in seeing if other teams have “tanked” and “rebounded” in those 3 years.
I just
Yea, let me play with some numbers and I will make an edit to the story
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
yea thats what I was thinking.
Looking I would be curious to see the 3year trend on this data. So instead of looking at 1 year jumps look to the circumstances as to the jumps. Much easier for FSU to go 34,23,96, to 40 then say Fictional Team A to go 101,89,96, to 40. FSU has the goods just needs to have them directed in the correct direction.
"You play to WIN the GAME"
Exactly
This is the thing I was wondering when reading this….how many of those teams had excellent defenses, then 1 bad (awful) year and DIDN’T rebound. I do not think for 1 second that it is out of the true realm of possibility that our D will be in the 40-60 range of rankings in 2010.
Hmm – I wonder if Vegas can post a prop bet……………..
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Dec 30, 2009 7:00 AM EST up reply actions
Rays, could you make a GoogleDoc of the 2007-2009 FEI rankings?
Or maybe send me a copy of your spreadsheet?
If you'd be so kind to include me on it?
Someone could just keep adding on the data like that to a spreadsheet as well and numerous things could be explored.
Plus someone could try to see if certain characteristics of teams correlated to defensive success.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life...no one gets to the Father but through Me"
Just email me and I will reply with the attachment
Address in on my profile
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Can't seperate data from the people element
Looking at the raw rankings and throwing out the coaching and talent is like looking at a nation’s economy but ignoring all policies and regulations that affect it. Trying to figure out what part coaching played in any of the horrible defensive showings for other teams is pretty much next to impossible, but I feel safe saying that the majority of bottom feeding defenses didn’t have the talent on hand that FSU had. The fact that our defensive staff make the perfect storm of blunders (playing people out of position, playing less qualified players, horrible scheming, predictable playcalling and never adjusting), there is significant room for improvement just by using modern coaching. How big a jump is debatable, because we still don’t know if we win at the LOS on a consistent basis next year, but I expect the jump to be significant.
At least it is something we will know fairly soon though. We were hearing in spring that our defense was going to be the worst MA ever fielded. We also know just how good our offense will be going forward. So if reports from spring ball show that our defense is holding it’s own we can feel pretty good about the upcoming season.
you hit the reply button an instant before I did,
with the same train of thought.
"I hope that someday we will be able to put away our fears and prejudices and just laugh at people." Jack Handy
by PeachTreeNole on Dec 29, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
I obviously understand that
But talent and coaching aside our chances are EXTREMLY small. Whatever you can account for talent and coaching doesn’t raise our chances to a percentage that makes me comfortable in saying we will have a good defense.
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
I wouldn't put a % on it
But I also think we are an anomaly from the other teams who routinely finish at the bottom of the defensive rankings. Those teams have skill deficits year in and out, as well as less well though of coaching staffs and worse facilities. I would say it is more likely that last season itself was a statistical anomaly and a bounce back to form should be expected. Just no way to be certain though.
by osceolafan850 on Dec 29, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Nice, but if you haven't factored in a) player talent
(which can be done somewhat through via past and present HS rankings) and 2) staff upgrades (much harder to do any way but subjectively), then you’ve omitted the top two weighted factors.
The analysis of where our D will be next year is in not so much quantitative as it is qualitative and subjective, imho.
"I hope that someday we will be able to put away our fears and prejudices and just laugh at people." Jack Handy
Don't shoot me for this, but this is why trying to guess how much the defense will improve
is like trying to make sense of the fumble recovery stat…
While I haven’t looked at any numbers other than what Rays posted, I’m guessing you probably have teams ranked that are probably performing pretty similarly, but are giving up just a yard or less more per game. For example, Team A is ranked 30th in the nation giving up 300 yds/game, but Team B is 35th giving up 301.5 yds/game. It’s not significant, and other than the rankings, these defenses would be on par with each other.
I know, I know…convert this into YPP, but the principle is still the same.
My point is that we really don’t know. Miami moved up over 40 spots from 2008-2009, we dropped 60.
Another “not so good” analogy: Think of our defense as a really obese person trying to lose weight. At first the weight loss is significant, and then starts to slow down. I think our defense can move in the the 40-50 range (maybe even 30s) fairly quickly. I think moving into the top 10 will take more time.
I like that last analogy
and seems like it would fit. I think we’ll make a quick jump, then notch our way up the ladder.
We are an extreme outlier in my opinion
With the talent we have, being in the Top 50 should be a given.
Especially when you think how much TOP our offense usually has.
Ooohh Gladwell
Nice outliers reference.
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Dec 30, 2009 7:01 AM EST up reply actions
We also have an extremely young defense
Of the 52 players listed on the depth chart for defense we have 15 Freshman, 18 Sophmores, 7 Juniors and 12 Seniors. That makes 63% of our defense underclassmen with much room to grow. Alot of players still need to mature, and I believe they will with the new def coaching staff and a modern gameplan.
by CraftyNole on Dec 29, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
As someone already mentioned I don't see us finishing in the top 50
but I do believe by the end of the season we could be playing as a top 50 defense. With our whole offense coming back that should be enough to have a very good shot at the ACCCG. Remember up until the Clemsom game we still had a shot at going to the ACCCG and had CP7 not started the game with broken ribs and gotten his shoulder separated we might have actually pulled the upset.
One thing that can’t be overlooked is the fact that the staff coming in was brought here because they have proven they can do their job on the field. The talent they have to work with is of a much higher caliber than what Jimbo, Tricket & co had on offense when they first got here. Will they turn it around in one off season? I wouldn’t hold my breath, but after a full year I could see them peaking when it counts and that’s hopefully at the ACCCG and BCS bowl.
Only time will tell but I must say I have every reason to be optimistic about the next era of FSU Football.
The issue here is not that we are 96th this year, but WHY are we 96th?
How did we drop SEVENTY-THREE spots in one year? Coaching? Scheme? Lack of talent? Youth? If we can drop 73 spots in one year, why is it so unfathomable to increase 40 spots? How did we go from top 40 defenses in ’07 and ’08 to bottom 25?
I think it goes back to a major missing piece and lack of depth at a key position: defensive line. In part, this relates to FSUn’s “size matters” article. If you can stop a team up front, you can hide a lot of deficiencies behind you. If you can stop the run, it’s easier to pin your ears back and rush the passer. If you can get pressure on the QB, you can cover up deficiencies in the secondary. So, IF the new staff can correct issues up front (whether it be schematic, size, depth, or all of the above), then we can see significant improvement. IF problems with the big uglies continue to plague this team, the D will take some time.
Notably, most of the teams who have made vast improvements from one year to the next were teams that consistently bring in top recruiting classes.
This is a great piece btw…
by FSUjab on Dec 29, 2009 9:18 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Fabulous post
I agree whole-heartedly, which is why it is important for us to get a great DE coach. White could be a BIG surprise with the right coach, provided he has the humility to listen and the intelligence to learn. Our DTs and LBs should be able to bulk up with some S&C. McDaniel could be a monster. McCloud should add some depth.
Intelligent play from the safeties also helps.
Agree.
Somewhere back there, I expressed the sentiment that a single player could be the difference between 40-ish vs. 60-ish for us next year, which seems to be the two camps we’ve got set up for next year… Deas entrance was the subject of that point, but I believe E Brown might have had the same effect on this year’s defense if he had hung around. The central point being, a true difference maker along the front line can be a huge, huge factor in the overall performance of the defense.
Asymmetry in increase vs. decrease in defense ranking
There may be an asymmetry in the increase vs. decrease in defensive ranking. For example, it may be easier (statistically: more likely) that a team has a (greater) decrease in defensive ranking than a team has a (greater) increase in defensive ranking. Someone just needs to do the analysis.
Let the Fisher era begin!
Just I Thought
Did you factor in the presence of #22 this year versus the absence next year?
Sorry, I just posted the same thing
I obviously missed your post, but completely agree. Mangum’s absence is an instant 20 point boost.
Does anyone know
how many 50+ yard plays he was in the camera frame on when either A) the tackle was missed, B) the pass was caught behind him, or C) he got simply out manuevered?
Its got to be 50% of the big plays we gave up last year. I was at most of the home games and it always seemed like it was either 22 or 15 getting SMOKED.
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Dec 30, 2009 7:04 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt there is going to be 70 teams with a better defense than FSU
Stoops is not here because he thinks he had better talent in AZ. They will be young and learning a better system but common sense tells me there will be a vast improvement in this defense especially the last half of the season.
The key is more defensive tackles and they are moving to shore that up, I think they will take Jermaine Brooks if he gets a 17 on the ACT, Irving, Jacobs, Cummings, McCloud maybe Bjoern Werner. Deas qualifying would go along way here also. They would be young but the necessary bodies would be there.
There is still McCray, McDaniel and McAllister and they should be ready to go. Other teams have been in the same boat before without falling to #106. A defense is much easier to turn around than an offense.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
Coaching Change - Short Term v. Long Term benefits
In my mind, the real question is not if our defense will get better … but when. Though we can point to the defensive coaching turnover as a sign that this defense could play much better with new coaches … the improvements may very well be offset from the difficult of all of our returning players in learning a new defense with new defensive philosophies and expectations. There are limited practices … so this could be a painful/difficult process in the short term.
It may very well be a situation where we see the defense get better throughout the year … still finishing “sub par” overall … but actually much better by the end of the year and ready for 2011.
Well, what sucks is.....
that it’ll still be MA’s scheme vs. WVA on Friday, and chances for rain are picking up. I dread seeing what Devine can do on a slick field to our D.
Chop it up Seminoles!
Nice write up!
I personally think we’ll have a top 60 defense next season due to the type of defense we will run. I think running more zone schemes will really help us, especially with keeping the play in front of us. Also, I think we’re going to see the best players playing on defense from now on regardless if they’re a Freshmen or not. New blitz schemes and D-line stunts should help, not to mention putting out LB’s in the proper LB spots(i.e. Bradham at MLB). Overall, I think better coaches and new energy is really going to make a difference next season. With all that said and done, I too believe 2011 will be the big breakout season for our defense.
Non Mollare, non mai mollare!
ItaliaNole A.K.A. SavvysNole
2011
will be an interesting year. With the large number of players who have gotten significant playing time as sophomores in 2009, I wonder how many we may lose to the NFL after 2010? J. Thomas, N. Bradham, etc., ….?
2010 will be EJ Manual’s year at the helm, and we’ll have a great group of Juniors on that team.
I’m trying to be optimistic about 2010 too though, as I think 8-10 wins is a certain possibility, with an outside shot at a BCS bowl as ACC Champs.
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Dec 30, 2009 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
Yep mistake! 2011.
Chop it up Seminoles!
by horsepowernole on Dec 30, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Why can't we be in that 10%?
I understand that the point was to show that few teams are able to make such a jump from year-to-year, but what I take from that is that 10% of the teams discussed actually DO make this jump.
With all of our turnover, new coaches, exciting new players… I think the program is a bit rejuvinated. The excitement around the team and the new coaching mentality are going to go a long way toward motivating these players. I honestly think that with all of our talent, we ARE within that 10% that should be able to do this.
20+ point improvement right off the bat
I gotta think Mangum’s departure represents and immediate 20+ point improvment. I know it’s real easy to bag on the guy, but even if he was coached properly and the right plays were called he just didn’t have the athletic ability to perform at the D1 level. I also believe that the new guys won’t favor seniority over the best player available.
Stoops
http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/322956.php
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
"The better and better players you get, things come a little easier," Mark Stoops
That’s what he will have next year
Let me just add,
First Wild@Heart wrote a great piece “Why I’m optimistic about next year’s defense” and I agree 100% with his opinion.
Then R&N wrote this great piece above, and I could not agree more.
And they call Herban Liar a waffler. Ha!
FWIW, which is really not much, I voted 41-50 next year and even better in ’11.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
i voted 51-60 because that's where I think we will rank throughout the season
but I believe that if looking only at the last half of next season our stats would put us in the 41 -50 range.. Meaning we will be improving over the course of the year and by 2011 should see another big jump into top 25-30.
I find difficult to be a pessimist when I don't know for sure
I am called an optimist. I vote top 30
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
The groupthink on anything to do with our defense seems to lean a little more to the pessimism side of things (and rightfully so..I’m guilty). I don’t think year over year stats are really that conclusive when there’s been a complete overhaul, and since we can’t predict what will happen, I’ll choose to be optomistic here also, but not as optomistic as you (with the top 30).
I've called you a lot of things, Doc, but optimist is new...Homer, maybe, but never optimist.
Just kidding old bean…You’re still the man
-WDH1981
by Randall W. Spetman on Dec 30, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think many of you are missing something
Our defense doesn’t need to be “good” in 2010, it just needs to be better. When you are ranked 96th (and honestly I thought we were 109th) if we can get up to 70 considering how good our offense should be, we’ll be a very much improved team. That should improve us enough to play for the ACC title and beat a Gator team that is in disarray. If you consider Ponder was injured while playing Clemson and the lousy defense we had, a 70th ranking and a health QB would make us at worst 10-2 and ACC champs this year playing Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
I agree to a certain point....
I still think we would have lost more than 2 games. UF, USF and BC would all have been losses IMO. Our offense didn’t do much in those games, but games like Miami and GT and even Clemson before CP7 got knocked out were all games where our offense was scoring at will but our defense was non existent at best. GT game they had no punts all game and they are a run only team. The only time we stopped them was on a miscue where they fumbled and luckily we pounced on it. Our offense on the other hand only punted twice I believe and had an outstanding game. If you hold them to a field goal or make one stop, or at least make them sustain a long drive and hope they commit another mistake with our Offense that game should have been won. Same goes for the Miami game where we took long drives down the field and scored only to see our Defense give up long pass after long pass and give Miami easy points. Even with that we still had a pretty good chance to win the game in the last second and dropped the pass with a second left on the clock that none of the refs seemed to notice.
So as long as we improve enough to make other teams have to kick more field goals or punt once or twice next year that could mean 3 to 4 more wins with our offense. In our weak division 9 or 10 wins pretty much guarantees a spot in the ACCCG and by that time our defense would have had time to grow enough to make it a winnable game.
just my long 2 cents
Every game we played this season was winnable but the UF game.
While our offense struggled against both USF and BC, our defense still gave up 2 plays of 70+ yards apiece against USF and I want to say at least 2 plays of 60+ yards apiece to BC. One in each game being a long TD. On the flip side. Our offense failed on the goal line in both games early on. Setting the tone for the game. I can’t really recall anything sticking out in the BC game, but our offense, at least in the first half, against USF moved the ball. But we fumbled it away 4 times! Only one of them was excusable (when Pressley got JACKED up).
I’m just saying I’m not willing to concede those 2 games as losses if we had an “average” defense.
Looking back at only which games were winable is a dangerous line of thinking.
You need to realize we had losable games, too. When looking at how an improved defense would change a team’s results, you can’t just pick and choose the games of which you want to effect the outcome.
We had some close wins too – two of which were borderline miracles (UNC and UMD). You can’t just assume we win those every time. So yeah, going back and playing those games with a better D may give us a couple more wins, but it could also result in a loss to UNC or NCST or both. This isn’t a “glass half empty thing,” its just trying to temper expecations. I mostly bring this up because I’ve been guilty of it myself. Practically every game was close in our 7-6 seasons, and I kept telling myself that we were very close to turning the corner. It gave me hope every season as a fan, but ultimately the optimism was unrealistic. You can’t just assume a marginal improvement on both sides of the ball (The O can’t get much better) is going to automatically add 7-14 points to every result you had the year before. It only gives us a slightly better chance in our games.
Basically, if you want to go back and change the outcome of two games with a better defense, you need to realize that even with a better defense, we might have lost some other games we won – UNC, NCST, UMD.
Ultimately, I think this is a longwinded way of saying make our defense marginally better for the past season and then come up with the percentages of winning each game that FSUn always pimps. See how many wins you come up with. Would you say our team had a 10% greater chance of winning every game? If so, and I think thats generous, thats still only a 1 win improvement from what we just had.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on Dec 30, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't say we for sure win any additional games with a better defense.
I said I would not be willing to concede a defeat to one of those 2 teams (USF and BC) if we had a better defense. Quite different. And I’m not saying we didn’t win some close games. That didn’t really pertain to what I was talking about, though.
All of our games were winnable besides UF. There is absolutely no denying that. With a better defense, it is completely realistic to think we would’ve won more games.
I agree we win more games and I never denied most of our games were winnable.
You talked about every game being winnable and went back and focused on a couple games that got away. I guess to me, you were implying a better D gives us wins in those games. I see now thats not the case, and apologize for making that conclusion for you.
If you want to look at what was winable, you have to look at what was losable too. Thats why I brought up the close wins. I agree that a better D gives us a better chance at winning across the board. There are many people that act like a better D will automatically turn close losses into wins. I’m not saying you are one of those people, I’ve just dealt with too many of them. I guess thats why I rambled on like I did.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on Dec 30, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Agree in part, maybe disagree in part
I agree that our O can’t get much better. We add Smiley, perhaps or more dominant with our O line, get better RB play with Gran coaching & don’t have to have Trickett take over the RBs 1/2 through. Hopefully Ponder will return to form after the injury. Concerned about losing a little at TE, but hopefully Reliford improves. Still, our O can’t get much better as it was a scoring machine.
I might disagree that a marginally better D will only yield a little better won-loss record. A little better D helps us win the close games we lost and put more of a point differential in the games we won. It may give our O more opportunities, such as a few stops in the Tech game. With our O virtually unstoppable at times, the effect of a D stop would not only mean fewer points for our opponent but it would also likely increase the points we score, considering our O. So a couple of D stops can mean a 6-10-14 point swing in the game. 1/2 of the swing comes from the opponent failing to score & half comes from us capitalizing on just one of the stops. Only Clemson and UF beat us by more than 14 and oth of them are losing a ton (UF is obvious, Clemson losing Spiller & Ford).
I am aware that the number of touches our O gets might actually be reduced with a better D, which is why I might disagree in part. One of the reasons our O had so many touches was that we gave up so many big plays. A better D should reduce that and might actually reduce the number of offensive touches we get. It might also disrupt our O, because our O will be on the sideline more if we stop the big plays.
I disagree
I feel our offense can gets load better. But in a different way then you might think. I think you will see the return of a power running game to destroy clock at the end of the game. Thats what’s missing from this offense. That and a deep threat. We could nickel and dime anyone, but never really took our chances with bombs. With a strong O-Line we could afford to take some chances and with a dominant running game (200+ yards per game) we will also be able to FINISH games. UM wouldn’t have mattered at the end if we could run and we would have also pounded the rock in against BC and USF with 1st and goal and maybe those games have different outcomes..
"You play to WIN the GAME"
beating BC
maybe you are right and we would have lost to BC anyway, but since they only beat us by 7 points my argument is simply that we were one 3rd down stand away from sending the thing into OT and if we had a slightly better D we might have been able to make that stand. We may have lost anyway, but that still puts us at 9-3 regular season and a shot at the ACC title.
I agree I just used those 3 games (UF, USF, BC) and I guess I could have used Jacksonville State too
because those were games where our offense didn’t show up enough to bail out our horrible Defense. Just like Mr Tito pointed out above my point was that you couldn’t claim a 10-2 season just based off of a better defense and those were games that stuck out to me because even though in the USF and J-Ville games the defense did hold them to under 20 points we still lost. What games we would have won or lost is up in the air just like we had incredibly close wins too.
This brings us to another point...
How much difference is there really between the 90th ranked defense and the 70th ranked defense? (Seriously, I’m too lazy to look at the FEI ratings right now.) Is it a yard per play? Half a yard per play?
Practically speaking, if we can limit the big plays to 2-3 a game instead of 4-5 that would be a SIGNIFICANT increase and would drastically improve our ranking. So, are we talking about making that one extra tackle or having that star player in the right spot? I don’t think we are as far away as most people seem to believe.
Remember guys we went from a top 40 defense to a video game defense in one year. That doesn’t happen on accident. There were serious problems on the defensive staff – more than any of us probably know. For example, remember how UM’s offense looked like NC material against us? How Harris looked like a Heisman candidate (the same Harris that leads the country in intercepts)? Now, what did they look like against Wisconsin last night? Very pedestrian. Wiscy’s d-line made Jacory Harris look like the stick-figured pretzel that he really is.
Our defense didn’t fall apart overnight because these guys don’t know how to play football (well, with one exception).
we just needed to reduce each game by one touchdown
and we have a much much better record. And considering how godawful the ACC was this year, I don’t think thats too much to ask. Its not like I’m saying they can’t score at least 21, just not 49!
I think people vastly overrate the talent we put on the field this past season.
Mangum was not the only issue. Losing Rolle, Carter, Nicholson and Brown was HUGE. HUGE. We had no one to replace Nicholson and Brown and at best it’s debatable if freshman could’ve adequately replace Carter (Reid) and Rolle (Harley/Moody).
If you go back just 6 seasons ago, who on our current defense would even see the field? Bradham would as a backup. Robinson would as a backup. Reid may have only played on special teams.
Bunkley, Travis Johnson, Cromartie, Jerome Carter, Leroy Smith, Pat Watkins, Timmons, BJ Ward, Church (would start at LB on this team), Busta Davis, Sam McGrew (would start at LB), AJ Nicholson, Ernie Sims, Andre Fluellen, Clifton Dickson (didn’t work out, obviously, but stll, the talent was at least on the roster), Chris Bradwell (see: Dickson), Darrell Burston, Eric Moore, Wimbley WERE ALL ON THE TEAM IN 2004. I mean, geez, that team compared to this team. The reason we suck on defense has a lot more to do with it than just coaching. A LOT more.
Where I say "We had no one to replace..."
and continue to say “at best it’s debatable”, insert “with proper coaching” afterwards and prior to “if freshman”.
There is a difference between talent & experience.
Take experienced guys from 6 years ago and put them on an inexperienced D, and sure they’ll start. We had talent this year, but it was young & small and uncoached. Young and small will improve with age and training. Coaching will no doubt improve too. When you see these guys, get older & bigger and apply coaching, then tell me about the talent disparity.
Whether freshmen could replace Carter & Rolle is not debatable. They could not replace those guys’ experience even if the coaching was there. I agree, the loss of Brown was huge.
I think you'll find in the next year or two just how little talent was on this defense.
I’m not talking about “experience”. I’m talking about pure, straight up talent. There is no way I take any of our DE’s over those DE’s but I’d have McAllister on the roster. No way I take McDaniel over Johnson, Bunkley and maybe Fluellen but I’d still have him on the roster. I said Bradham would see pt but no other LB would even be on the roster (we simply wouldn’t have even bothered recruiting them). Robinson and Reid are the only 2 CB’s good enough to be on our roster back then. I think Moody and Harley would’ve been on the roster back then. Everybody else would’ve either not been recruited or transferred out because they weren’t good enough.
yup, but they could use some size, experience, & coaching
If you look at them, they have speed and athleticism. The younger guys have frames that are built to grow with S&C. A lot of the guys were 4* & 5* recruits coming out of HS. Generally, the ratings are fairly acurate. Not always, but generally. There’s always some highly rated guys that turn out to be a bust and vice versa, but a whole squad of mis-rated guys? Winding up on one team??? I’m not buying it.
We have more talent on D than we do on O, and look at how our O line has shaped up with S&C and coaching. I’ll say it again, we have more talent on D than we do on O. And our offense is a damn machine!
Why do you say
our offense has SC improvement when you say our defense doesn’t? It’s not like the offense had one SC coach and the defense had another.
The roster I listed above was talented. The roster we have currently isn’t even close to the same level.
time
our OL is older than the DL guys
jenkins, jackson, dawkins, mcdaniel, mccray were all fr. & sophs. whereas our OL is full of jr.s
in addition to the time needed for sc training to work and time to gain exp. you still need coaching.OL does not have acoaching prob. DL problem is getting fixed.
Our OL is not full of juniors.
McMahon – 4th year
Hudson – 3rd
Datko – 2nd
Spurlock – 2nd
Sanders – 2nd
Dawkins – 2nd
McCray – 2nd
Stevens – 2nd
Jackson – 3rd
White – 2nd (3rd total)
McNeil – 4th
Thacker – 4th
Mincey – 4th (5th removed from high school)
Stewart – 5th
McDaniel and Jenkins were the only freshman DL to see time
You said you think our current roster is talented. Do you believe it’s as talented as the roster I listed above?
I certainly think
That McDaniel as a Senior and McAllister as a senior and Dawkins and Jenkins as well would be on those rosters. Its really hard to think that your telling me that a freshman DL who shouldn’t have been playing due to lack of size and still playing decently wouldn’t be able to compete as juniors and seniors. I mean really what you are saying in effect is that Ponder in 2008 wouldn’t make the ’00 roster and Ponder in 2009 would have started in 2001. Seems kinda weird right?
"You play to WIN the GAME"
Oh and our OLine
Datko has awesome technique as does Hudson and McMahons has been good as well. How do these boys fair with piss poor coaching? I am what if I am coaching them. Someone who has never played a down of football in his life only watched it obsessively? Do you honestly think our oline is any good? Cause frankly if I was coached I’da left McMahon on the DLine not knowing any better. Thats essentially what you are doing judging these young players on the DLine. You are saying that they are less talented I am saying that you are comparing the unit coached by the one of the best in the business to one who doesn’t even deserve to be coaching at FAMU (Allen). Frankly its fine for me to see you bash the less talents juniors and seniors but we watch Rick Trickett take 2* and turn them into Rodney Hudson’s. Why can’t we take 5*’s who Pete Carroll and Butch Davis loved (McAllister and McDaniel) and wanted and turn them into great players….
"You play to WIN the GAME"
we wouldn't have recruited 4 stars?
the level a prospect is in highschool often does not transfer to college, but to say we would not have recruited 4* LBs Wright, Smith, Williams, and Carr is simply wrong. I think we’d have even gone after 3* Watson, but maybe not depending on where we needed the players.
Wright?
We went after Wright LATE because we needed bodies. And I said “not recruited or transferred out”. Sure, we may have recruited them, but they aren’t near as good as the roster we had just 5 years ago, so they may also have transferred out.
BOOM. I've always described the 2009 D as 50/50
50% talent that is 50% less talented than what we’re used to seeing.
I guess that leaves 25% left for coaching. Depending on how you look at it.
“They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time”
by Randall W. Spetman on Dec 30, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
"Nole Defense, made with real bits of Seminole"
"Don't flinch, let's kill a fly with an Axe."
by NorFla_Nole on Dec 31, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
....so you know its good
"Don't flinch, let's kill a fly with an Axe."
by NorFla_Nole on Dec 31, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
It's quite pungent
It’s a formidable scent. It stings the nostrils in a good way.
"We'll win games with talent. We'll win championships with character."
-Jimbo Fisher
by Jamil Dawson on Dec 31, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Sure our 2004 team was stacked but thats not a fair comparison
When all the 2004 players you mentioned came to FSU they were 4 and 5* players like many we have on the roster now. They were fresh out of high school and with S&C while at FSU and Coaching from the FSU coaches they became the great players that they turned out to be and many have enjoyed success at the next level. Give our current players a competent coaching staff and a S&C program that is not purposely keeping players underweight because a certain guy in shiny red shoes thinks his players should be small to stay fast and they might end up leaving FSU as great players themselves. Bad angles, wrong whole assignments, bad containment, no discipline can all be corrected with good coaching. Size can be added with better S&C practices, so lets give these kids a chance before we completely write them off. Most of these players on D were rated way higher than what we have on O, and our Offense is doing just fine if you ask me. As a matter of fact do we even have any 5* recruits on the 0 anymore? I can’t think of one.
Jabby, that is exactly the same thing I was thinking, but I too don't have the time to do the research at this time. I would like to see actual numbers instead of rankings, although this was a fine job and starting point.
Here is what I would like to see on this topic.
FSU’s YPP AND YPG AND/OR ANY OTHER NUMBER YOU WANT TO THROW IN THERE.
The same for the team ranked #70.
The same for the team ranked #50.
The same for the team ranked #30.
and the same for the team ranked #10.
I think this will give us a better understanding of where we can speculate we will wind up at the end of next season in terms of improvement.
Any takers?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
you all pick on Magnum too much – I bet you all thought Roger Willams was bad too – If you think losing Magnum will make the defense 20 places better – you are simply wrong. WE WILL BE 40 PLACES BETTER AT LEAST – bless his heart
by 93noleman on Dec 30, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
lack of depth
gentlemen, lack of depth. Essentially, our entire 2nd string D next yr will not have played a down of college football. Think about that for a second. we’re where UF was in 07 next yr, only with less talent.
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