A Slight Improvement next year.
by TimScribble on Dec 3, 2009 3:00 PM EST
90 comments
Lately, Ive been reading where a lot of readers and fans think that next year is only going to be a slight improvement on this year. And that at most, FSU is going to win only 1 or 2 more.
I guess my problem with this is that FSU was really close to having a good record this year and competing for the ACC Championship.
In the Miami game, they were one play away from winning that game. Obviously the Fortson catch but also a key third down where Patrick Robinson missed a tackle that would have stopped a scoring drive for Miami.
In the BC game, one defensive stop in the fourth quarter and FSU would have this game.
In the GTech game, same as BC, one defensive stop in the fourth quarter and FSU would have won this game.
In the Clemson game, I really didnt think FSU had any business being in this game as close as they were, but they were still a Mister Alexander offsides call away from going up big and possibly winning that game.
That makes FSU a 10-2 team with losses to Florida, which the Noles werent going to win and S.Florida, which they came out flat and didnt play well at all (and I still think the phantom hold call on Ponder's TD toss really changed this game).
Yes, I know we could go the other way and say they were a few plays away from being 3-9, but the fact of the matter is, this was an elite offense that with a decent defense would have competed for the ACC crown.
So I feel that a slight improvement next year, is going to be a huge improvement in the overall record. People fail to see just how close FSU was from being a great team. A play here, a better defense there and this is a whole different year.
I think with an improved defense, an experienced offense and a new coaching staff, that the Noles are going to have a great season next year.
0 recs |
90 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
That's a good point.
I wish we had a full legitimate coaching staff this year. For game and recruiting purposes.
I really think we
can hit 10 (with the bowl game). Is that being too optimistic? I guess i’m just assuming we’re in better hands now than we have been for 9-10 yrs.
Not drinking enough Kool-Aid Rays...
you got 4 or 5 months before we have to be realistic. Right now, we have alot to be excited about. Finally moving on, new D-staff, etc… 2010: Championship Game (high pitched voice)
Not drinking the Kool-Aid
Im not one of the Kool-Aid drinkers. I didnt feel that we were going to compete for the NC this year, nor do I see it happening next year. I just feel that our future is not as bad as some are painting it.
I would love to be this optimistic
…. but I feel we are too thin defensively to have a huge turnaround next year. I think we’ll be 8-4 or 9-3 at best. Once we get a full season of stability with the new defensive staff and a full season of Jimbo having uncontested control, we should begin to expect more. We really need 2010 to get a slew of recruits and get our young defense more experience.
your not recognizing that at least half the problem is DT depth and coaches not playing the secondary talent that we ALREADY have.
Along with x and o’s
we already have some JuCo DT’s to go with a couple of very talented returning young ones. Small DT’s can be moved back outside where they belong.
mangum won’t be there and there is a ton of saftey talent already here.
Yeah, right!
Taking away the Florida and Clemson loss...
Which I felt were the two games we were supposed to lose, this team lost on an average of 6.5 points a game. An improved defense in the 50s or 60s is going to make up that difference.
I am
I think we have a very tough schedule next year, just like we had a tough schedule this year. But I dont think our opponents this year were far superior than us, besides Florida.
Two things really stand out, 1) I dont think we played a better offense than ours and 2)Our defense was horrible and we still almost won these games.
A slightly improved defense is going to be a huge improvement.
I am not anticipating Clemson getting better. They get worse.
Which should lead us to the ACCCG provided we keep Ponder healthy and improve the D.
BUT
They have the DABO on their side….how could they get worse????
I predict exponential improvement in them year after year until they are scrimmaging the Colts and Saints and whipping them handily.
Also
I didn’t think this needed to be said……
but that was a joke. If you couldn’t tell it was a joke, I’m either not as funny as I think I am, or you have a crappy sense of humor.
I am disappointed in the guys who have been here a long time..
you have to ask Tim to give us the percentage chance we win in each game.
I suppose you are referring to
http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/5/19/879468/does-florida-state-have-the
If so, no I havent looked at the %. I dont think FSU is going to be favored heavily at first due to our record this year. So I dont think I can accurately predict what the line will be for next years games.
Rosters
Any idea how the rosters of our opponents are looking for next year relative to this year?
Next Year
Ill say this, I like that here you have to actually try and prove your point. Thanks for the challenge.
Florida – 14 pt dogs – 15%.
Oklahoma – 6 pt dogs – 30%
BYU – 10 pt favorites – 80%
Miami – 3 pt dogs – 40%
Clemson – 3 pt favorites – 60%
NC State – 6.5 pt favorites – 65%
BC – 5 pt favorites – 70%
UVA – 10 pt favorites – 80%
UNC – 3 pt favorites – 60%
Maryland – 10+ pt favorites – 80+%
Wake – 10+ pt favorites – 80+%
Samford – 10+ pt favorites – 80+%
Im saying 9-3 with a possibility at 10. Im not impressed with Landry Jones at OU. And I think we have a pretty good chance against Miami.
Adding on
BYU and UVA both 10+ pt favorites.
Spiller’s loss is going to hurt Clemson and their QB still has some growing to do.
UNC will be tough, but I like our chances.
BC’s D is good, but our Offense scored well against them this year.
NC State could be a trap game for us, but I’m thinking our team will remember their past mistakes.
by TimScribble on Dec 3, 2009 7:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So if it did my math right
that puts you at about 62% out of 12 games, thus 7.4 wins.
"as the heavens are higher than the earth, so are My ways higher than your ways and My thoughts than your thoughts."
Your figures
Are based off the 80% that I put in there. I don’t know what the lines are but I think it’s safe to say that they will push the winning % for those games higher than 80%. So we are talking more than 7.4 games.
by TimScribble on Dec 3, 2009 7:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
make them 100% and you're still at 8 games.
"as the heavens are higher than the earth, so are My ways higher than your ways and My thoughts than your thoughts."
Fair enough
I gave it a shot. Thanks for making me think. Still feel good about our future.
Haha, no hard feelings man.
I feel good about our future also. The key to the percentages is a way to figure out if the percentages given are reasonable or tied to some logical method, otherwise the percentage thing is just as ambiguous but more conversative (usually) than picking W/L, giving the apperance of being wiser.
"if we try to leave may God send angels to guard the door"
The psychology of it is interesting
There are good studies out there about people’s general insensitivity to statistics and the decision making process.
"if we try to leave may God send angels to guard the door"
Percentages aside
I think Tim’s original thought was that if we hold serve on the games we’re favored in (according to him) and pull one upset, we are at 10-2.
He also used the term "slight"
A slight improvement gets you 1 or 2 wins. A DRASTIC and MONUMENTAL improvement gets you to 10.
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
yep I still think 8 wins and an ACCG and a potential major bowl (while not a ton more w's) looks way better...
and is miles from where we are this year.
Yeah, right!
I did use the term slight
And tried to back up that a slight improvement would be more than 1 or 2 wins based off the fact that we were a few plays away from being a 8+ win team this year.
I still believe this year’s team was good, played a brutal schedule and had the worst defense in years. A "slight improvement’ would lead to a MONUMENTAL improvement.
But no matter what, I really appreciate the conversation that a lot of you are bringing to this, thanks so much TN for being awesome.
I do not agree that Clemson should be 70%
They still have talent on both sides of the ball
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Help my math
I was never a math wiz, what’s the formula used to convert 62% to 7.4 wins.
by TimScribble on Dec 3, 2009 8:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I take all percentages and sum them. your total given (using the 80’s) is 740. Thats 740 out of a total 1200 possible which is 62%. Winning 62% of the time out of 12 games is (.62 X 12 = 7.4).
"if we try to leave may God send angels to guard the door"
Yeah, I feel dumb
After I thought about it, I realized that it was a simple formula. Ah well, thanks anyways.
by TimScribble on Dec 3, 2009 8:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think the guys talking 8-4
Are figuring:
1 loss to UF
1 loss to either BYU or OU
and
2 losses in the ACC because it always seems like every team losses at least 2 in the ACC due to parity, getting caught with jet lag on a down week, the other team having a bye week to prepare for you or something freaky happening. If we lose at Miami, then we only have to get “caught” by one other team. I’d love to say we should run the table in the ACC, but the odds of that happening are low. Hell we almost lost to MD at home.
I’d love to have a 13-1 miracle season (loss to UF + ACCCG + bowl win), but we could just as easily go 7-7 (above with 3 ACC losses, loss in ACCCG + bowl loss)
Although we’ll have a new DC, our D will be running a new system and we have a lot of youth on the D, which makes for inconsistency & mistake. Realistically, we’ll probably end up somewhere in between.
That's 7.4, but
I think you need to use a .99 for Samford, bumping us to 7.6, I think We’re 10pt over BC which would take us to 7.6, but doubt we are 10 point road faves over UVA, more like 7, so bump us down to 7.55, and seriously doubt we are 14 pt home dogs to UF next season or only 10 pt dogs over BYU, I’d bump to 7.75, but then probably back down to 7.7 because of OU, which I think is definitely a 10pt game.
7.7 is .3 more than I had for this year.
So here's my problem
And I hope you can help with this. Im a big supporter and believer of what JF is doing with the offense. And a lot of that has to do with reading the stats and the records that you have posted up here in the past few months. Our offense is referred to as Elite and we are losing only a receiver and a TE off the offense. There may be a slight drop off, but I still see us as a Top 20 offense, if not Top 10.
Our defense was horrible. But with a competent staff, a decent, if not vast improvement should be expected. I would think we could easily get the defense into the 50s or 60s.
Saying all that, why is it not logical to expect more of an improvement than 1 or 2 games? Is it because our schedule is simply that difficult?
What do you expect our conference record to be?
Remember we are 16-16 in the last 4 years
Next year we go 5-3 maybe 6-2 in conference plus 1 or 2 losses out of conference.
I just can’t see 10 wins
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
The trouble games next year
I would expect us to lose 3 out of the 4 games with Clemson, Miami, OU and UF. I was thinking we’d lose 2 at the most in conference. I suppose Im being overly optimistic.
The reason why the percentages are so good
Is that they take into account the chance we’ll lose to a team that we should beat. We’ve been doing it for years. It’s easy to say, “Well, we’re better than team x so we should beat them.” Over the course of the season though, things happen. Injuries, emotional letdowns, the grind of playing weeks on end. We’ve lost plenty of games that we’ve been favored in…I just can’t see that changing in one season.
The offense should be elite and the defense should be improved, but stuff happens.
>>---l>
As Corso said
“Any defense would have made the difference”.
I expect to see significant improvement and to be in the ACC Championship game.
That is not saying much since 8-4 got you into the ACCCG this year.
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
Big plays
In almost all of our games (atleast towards the begining of the season) we gave up huge plays that lead to 90+ yard drives. If we could have stopped those, our record may have looked much different. I don’t expect to much of that next year with improved defensive scheming and the graduation of Korey Mangum
mangum
i am so glad that mangum is gone. it always seemed like he was out of place or falling over throughout the year. if we get the right dc showing the right places to be in the game than we can win a lot of games. i dont know how many times i saw plays bunch up defending one lane when the ball carrier would just slip through the open one for 20+ yards. if we get the fundamentals down on defense the noles will do well.
here's our schedule next year
Home Away
Florida Oklahoma
BYU Miami
Clemson NC State
Boston College Virginia
North Carolina Maryland
Wake Forest
10-2 would be a godsend if you ask me.
and Stoops might be gone.
Even if he’s there, I do not think he stops Jimbo’s offense if Ponder can recover from the shoulder injury well.
I thought the O-line was the problem this year - No experience (remember BYU)
shouldn’t they be improved next year? or were they starting a bunch of non-experienced seniors?
They are graduating their 2 best OL in Willliams and Simmons
They are also losing their Center although he is just a walk-on
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
10-2 would be amazing.
But 11-1 would be the godsend. With a good — not even great, just fairly solid — defense, I think we could conceivably — not likely by any stretch — beat every team there except Florida. Some of those games that were close this year would not have been so if we’d had even a merely bad defense rather than the abortion of a defense we had this year.
I’m keeping my expectations low. I’ll call 8-4 next year. By the end of Year 2, we should be in the ACCCG and building in a big way on the recruiting trail for the future.
In five years, I’d like to at least be mentioned for a national title, even if as a huge long shot.
i agree
Jones u are exactly right, i see FSU having a great future
Patience, I think.
Not looking for anything terribly amazing. A decent bump in wins next year, and steady progress thereafter.
the voice of one crying in the wilderness, "slow ye down and be patient"
I think an ACCG WOULD be a big bump for me…guess it’s expectations. I don’t expect to compete nationally for at least 2 more years.
Yeah, right!
Surprised if we won:
UF or @ OU
Toss-up (want to win 3 of 5 of these)
@ Miami, Clemson, @ NC State, BC, UNC,
Would be angry if we lost any of:
BYU, @ Maryland, @ UVA, Wake, Samford
So yeah, if we go 8-4, that means we won more of the tossup games than we lost, didn’t have any horrible letdowns and didn’t pull massive upsets.
OU wouldn't shock me.
OU did not look too hot this year, and we seem to have matched up pretty well on common opponents (Miami and BYU, I think). And that’s with the atrocious defensive coaching.
Tough game, but it wouldn’t blow my mind if we won it.
They haven't lost at home since 2005
Beating them would be an UPSET
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
True, but I think it's a bit misleading.
But they didn’t play any of their toughest competition at home either. Possible exception of OK State.
They got beat in away games and on “neutral ground” (although I think playing BYU in Texas is a lot closer to a home game for OU than for BYU).
OU was also ravaged by injuries this year. Do not be deceived by their record.
They lost a total of 5 starters to injury and some backups as well.
They don't lose at home
Plain and Simple, they actually crush teams.
Last 5 home games against ranked oppenents
Ok St – 27-0
CInci – 52-26
TCU – 35-10
TT – 65-21
Missouri – 41-31
It's a beautiful day in Tallahassee
As I recall BYU hadn't lost at home in years and we went into the altitude and crushed them after they beat OU at the start of the season.
We play better on the road for some reason. I agree we are an underdog at OU, but an upset would not shock the conscience. It would shock the hell outta OU fans. And the ESPN guys would be saying Fla. St. is back.
Good read on the situation!
I wonder if UF at tally would actually be easier than pulling OU in Normand… assuming a mass draft exodus in gainsville, and expecting OU to be much improved.
Yeah, right!
I am not going to say we will win 10 but...
OU- Loses some OL, QB, TE, WRs (i think), and not sure on D
Clem- Loses Spiller & Ford & probably some D (I believe). Plus their OL just isnt very good and the game is at home.
BYU- Loses Max Hall and they have to travel across country.
UF- Loses a lot, but lets see how they reload and the backups are.
NC- Loses a lot on D…the only thing keeping them in most games
BC- Just not as talented (I know they just beat us)
Wake- loses Riley Skinner
UVA- New coaches
NC State- Is Russel Wilson a SO or JR?
I dont know what we will finish and won’t predict anything till much later; however, I think a lot of our opponents will have key losses in the off-season (I may be wrong on some of them). It has potential to be a very good season since we won’t lose much, but it all depends on how the players pick up the new schemes.
The key to the season
Is Miami, Clemson and Oklahoma. There is a chance we could win all three or maybe lose all three. Then a loss to Florida still an 8-4 season. Win two out of those three and you play for the ACC with possibly another win and also a possible bowl game win. So it is really hard to project. I am thinking anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2.
A good defense would have been the difference in several close games this year. You really need to see who the DC is and how many tackles we bring aboard to have a better idea.
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
Yeah
And we will be Undefeated headed into the swamp…..again!
I define undefeated as NextLevel did….not (Un) having eaten (eated) the def (def). Then again, football players will eat pretty much anything, so I guess it’s not a sure thing that they won’t eat the def.
Nice sig, BTW Rays. Just caught that! It IS a beautiful day in Tally. Even if it were raining it would be.
I think the numbers need to be clarified.... both sides of this argument may be saying the same thing....
8-4 doesn’t include a bowl so 9 or 10 wins (including ACC and Bowl) is closer to the 8 wins argument than you might believe.
Yeah, right!
Last year we were looking at this season as we would have a good def
Now are we going to look at next year and think the same thing. I think that next year we could have a good def but our best Def will still be the Offense. If we get a good DC in then we should come up for 108th in the nation to around 60 or 70 maybe higher. If that happens I think we win 3 to 4 more games alone because our Offense will be better too. That said I think that the games will look more like this.
Florida – 14 pt dogs – 15%.
Oklahoma – 6 pt dogs – 55%
BYU – 10 pt favorites – 95%
Miami – 3 pt dogs – 75%
Clemson – 3 pt favorites – 70%
NC State – 6.5 pt favorites – 80%
BC – 5 pt favorites – 70%
UVA – 10 pt favorites – 95%
UNC – 3 pt favorites – 75%
Maryland – 10+ pt favorites – 95+%
Wake – 10+ pt favorites – 80+%
Samford – 10+ pt favorites – 95+%
I dont know what that comes up to but I think we can get a 10win and ACCCG at the least. Our Def has to get better though. If they dont then it will be just like this year. They could have a probelm learning a new system only time will tell.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I think we were looking at this past season as though we had ANY defense.
I think a lot of TN readers were prepared for a drop off…just not one off the cliff face planting into some broken glass. The best thing about next year (besides you know…new coaches, better coaching, getting rid of bad coaches) is that we can’t lose to USF again. I have never felt lower as a Nole fan than I did that day.
There is talent on D Des. And they want to win. And some of them actually take pride in being good. I bet they put in all the time they can so that they aren’t embarrassed on the field again next year. I just have to think that there is a want/need from these players for some real coaching. They have got to be hungry after the famine they suffered.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
