Florida State Seminoles Beat FIU 82-62 as Seminoles Head into Finals Break
by TrueCubbie on Dec 6, 2009 7:54 PM EST
in FSU Basketball
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Print(A certain unnamed author was at the Chicago Bears game, so this is simply a recap of the stats. Please refer to the game thread for the outstanding commentary from our readers. Cheers, TC. )
During the five games leading up to today's match up, Florida State failed to score more than 70 points. They scored 80+ in the first three games of the year. Today, the offense warmed up, leading the Seminoles to an 82-62 victory over Isiah Thomas's FIU squad. Granted, FIU has yet to demonstrate it can play defense against anyone. Florida State had an Offensive Efficiency of 109.3 while holding FIU to an Offensive Efficiency of only 82.7 with an eFG% of 39%.
Due to an injury to Derwin Kitchen, Coach Leonard Hamilton changed the starting line up. Instead of Kitchen, Luke Loucks got the nod. However, that wasn't the only change. Xavier Gibson started over Ryan Reid. This was the Gibson's first collegiate start and provided a reasonable stat line in 18 minutes of play: 9 points, 4 rebounds and 2 steals. Given the opportunity to start, Loucks contributed with 6 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 steal in 28 minutes of play. He only had 1 turnovers.
Devidias Dulkys led the Seminoles with 19 points, going 5 for 10 from the three point line. Dulkys also had 4 assists with only 1 turnovers. It was nice to see the Seminoles starters with decreased turnovers. For the game, the Seminoles had a TO% of 21.3%. Pierre Jordan had 3 turnovers, which likely occurred in late minutes (Yes?). Michael Snaer also had 4 turnovers, but scored 12 points in 19 minutes. From the game notes, it seems that Snaer is starting to show his athleticism and starting to get more aggressive around the basket.
This was a much needed win for the Seminoles as they now get a break before taking on Georgia State University on December 15th.
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F.Y.I: The "BCS Selection Shows" on both Fox (Jimmy "The Hair" Johnson?) and
ESPN (Lou “The Lisp” Holtz) are unwatchable. Unwatchable.
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
how do you quantify 'safeness' of a lead?
seems kinda odd to me…
doesnt this guy refute all his findings w/ that last example?
seems like he killed his own theory w/ the unc/duke game
well, thats presumably the only game they ever found that refutes theory!
Anyway, maybe they should change the formula so that 99.9% is the highest possible figure.
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
That is the formula that is used by StatSheet.com, where I pull all of the charts. It seems to work well.
Bill James is a pretty impressive statistician, though his primary work is in baseball.
www.Tomahawknation.com
and as Mr. James writes in the article, he was looking for a "heuristic" method, which
wikipedia indicates “is a method used to rapidly come to a solution that is hoped to be close to the best possible answer,” or a “rule of thumb.”
I.E.-not iron-clad, which is probably why he writes in the article, “no licensed mathematician would be caught dead associating with it.”
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
Nicely said. It's a quick and dirty way to say if a score can be overcome or not. Clearly, there are the freak Reggie Miller sequences. In the games that I have used to calculate when a game is over, it has yet to fail.
Again, it is a ‘heuristic’ method, that ems to work more often than not, but it isn’t a guarantee. The model changes relatively quickly. Meaning the difference of a 10 points lead versus a 12 point leas changes game from being 94% safe at 1 minute to 100% safe at 1 minute. Not a huge difference, but it is still possible to come back.
Still, it’s a nice way to figure out when you can be comfortable.
www.Tomahawknation.com
London to Virginia
http://www.southernpigskin.com/index.php/forums/viewthread/3792/
" Fisher’s approach to building a winner is lifted from Saban’s playbook. Right down to the terminology such as becoming more "process oriented" as opposed to "results oriented."
" Nick and I are friends," he said. "That guy is one of the best football coaches I’ve ever been around. God knows he’s brilliant. … A lot of the things he believes are a lot of things I believe. We’re very similar!
The process begins!
Jordan
got mins in the first half. Was the backup PG, so he got 12 mins while Loucks got 28. Loucks seems to be getting a bit steadier at PG…which is good because he needs to become the primary PG. Kitchens just isn’t comfortable there and is not a good enough passer to be your primary.
Loucks always looks okay against shitty competition
But I can’t remember him doing even decent anytime we play anyone worth a damn.
he's gotten more confident the last 4 games
he did as much as anyone to spur the comeback against marquette. the drive & dish to Demercy for the tying dunk and I think he had both inlet passes to Alabi for the last 2 buckets. As simple as that seems (and it actually is a skill) he is the only one on the team who gets inlet passes to posted big men in a position that they can score. Others are too late or make them move out of position to receive it. Like it or not, he is the only true PG on the team that sees the floor and can compete right now. Kitchens doesn’t even want the ball against the press. You can tell by his body language. At least, Loucks goes and gets it and acts like he want to run the team. am not down on Kitchens overall. he is just a 2 guard and I’m sure that’s what he’s played his whole life. His strength is getting his own shot off the dribble and he can’t do that effectively as a PG.
This
You can’t take ANYTHING from this game. NOTHING. Look at how well Loucks played against Florida, Iona, Alabama, Marquette and Ohio State (10 assists, 12 turnovers). WOW. Sign me up. I’m convinced. Without Kitchen we lose several of those games. While Kitchen also struggled, as least he scores. Loucks can’t create his own shot and other than “lighting up” FIU at a rate of 33.3% (yes, that’s lighting it up for Luke, he was shooting like 25% prior to the game) he hasn’t been able to hit the broad side of barn even when open.
That
I dont think anyone is reasonably saying Loucks is the answer to the PG question, but its a choice between the lesser of two evils. With Loucks running the point you can slide Kitchen down to baseline against the zone where he is a deadly offensive weapon. And FSU should expect to see zone, zone, zone.
Loucks definitely looks rattled against speedy defenders, but Kitchen is equally timid bringing the ball up.
Even in the games where Loucks appears over matched, IMHO the team looks more comfortable with him on the floor. Neither Ktichen or Loucks is the best player on the floor, so what they individually contribute comes second (IMHO) to how the team performs when they are running the show. Id be curious the +/- with Loucks at PG vs. Kitchen.
I personally FSU is at its best with both of them on the floor.
Loucks vs Kitchen against good teams
to be fair I checked Kitchen’ A/T in these games and he was 14/14, so marginally better. In individual games, Kitchen was better against OSU (4/3 vs 1/3) and Iona (2/4 vs 0/3) while Loucks was better against Marq (4/2 vs 1/1) and UF (2/4 vs 1/5) -(“better” is used very loosely in this game). They were comparably good against UA (K-6/1 vs L-3/0). Obviously, is a very crude measure as doesn’t account for when occurred (ie garbage time) against OSU & UF. Kitchen is getting 50% more mins (33.4 vs 21.4) and, obviously, is a much better scorer. But my and other’s point is that Louck’s upside at point is greater while Kitchen is a much better scorer when he doesn’t have to worry about PG.
I thought Jordan looked better than Loucks at pg
I’m not saying he would look better against ACC competition (I’m not saying he wouldn’t, either, I have no idea), but the word I used during the game thread was more “fluid”.
ehhh...
I think your Loucks bias is blinding you here.
I have no Loucks bias
Loucks is a below average pg against solid (or better) competition. Jordan looks like a much more confident dribbler, which makes him more ’fluid" looking.
am glad Reid isn't starting
but Gibson is the wrong guy to start for him. I’d start Loucks, Kitchens, Demercy, Singleton & Alabi. sure wish Dulkys could hit 3s against the good teams
hey, I agree with you on Kitchens. I was at the Ohio State game, and down near the floor,
so I can second your notion that Kitchen does not want the ball against the press at all and is better suited for finding his own shot.
But there is no way I am starting Demercy. Like others here have said, he is a good energy guy coming off the bench. He definitely has put a spark in the team on occasion when they have needed it. We need points badly, not more defense.
I would go,
Loucks
Kitchens
Dulkys
Singleton
Alabi
At least start like that for the next couple games and see what happens.
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
i think im ok w/ gibson starting at the 4
our biggest problem this year after turnovers has been offensive consistency (we’re very inconsistent)
and he gives us another scorer who can post or hit a mid-range j – demercy/reid offer nice d and hustle, but neither has any offense
however, i think when dulky’s is off – as in every big game on national tv – we should really consider sneear for big minutes..
Guys, there is no "s" in Kitchen
I agree, though, no way in heck do I start DeMercy. He’s a 6th man type who brings in rebounding, defense and dunks.
Loucks
Kitchen
Snaer
Singleton
Alabi
Dulkys and Gibson should see 20 minutes/game. DeMercy should be used as needed (maybe more than 20 mins/game, maybe much less). Same for Reid, depending on foul trouble and the physicalness of the opponent. I’d much rather see Shannon get pt over Reid. I wouldn’t mind seeing Jordan get some more pt but I don’t see it happening.
hey, I am going to throw sperrett1 under the bus as I cut-and-pasted the names. :-)
actually, I had to read your subject line a few times, as I thought you were trying to do one of those deals where someone writes something like,“Allas Cowboys , cause there’s no D in Dallas” type-things.
GO NOLES!
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
no "s" in Kitchen?
I never realized that. Mr. Kitchen. I suppose after his playing days he’d be a natural for his own HGTV show.
I agree 100% w/ all your points except about Demercy starting (see my rationale below). Not saying Demercy should get “starters” mins, just trying to get best lineup for beginning of games.
Jordan got minutes in the first half.
Kid can’t shoot, and is a turnover hazard. He must be a star in shoot around practice, because he’s not even 6’.
Dulkys is a beast. Gibson looked good, and was glad to see him out there. Snaer looked a lot more agressive, and you can definitely see the athleticism he has. Besides that, I don’t really have anything note from the game than Isiah Thomas got ripped. The Nole Zone made a flyer with some nasty comments about his personal life.
SCALP 'EM SEMINOLES!
Kitchen was sitting out the game
You wanted Loucks to play all 40 minutes?
Dulkys a beast? If he’s not draining the 3, which he hadn’t been doing much of the past 2 weeks, he has no impact.
Dulkys is the best off the ball defender FSU has in the back court
Snaer is the best on the ball defender.
This does not include Singleton.
even if Dulkys only add the threat of a perimeter shooter
that is better than anything else FSU has
If Dulkys isn't hitting his 3's you can't play him
He’d have less impact than DeMercy because DeMercy is boards and skies for dunks
my rationale for my starting lineup
is getting the best group out there to mitigate our lousy starts against quick teams that are gonna press and fall back into zone. Putting even more height out there (ie Gibson) ain’t gonna do that. I love height, but you still have to gameplan for individual teams and height is most effective in the second half (or 2nd part of 1st half) because it doesn’t get tired. But we have to not be down by 15 before we start wearing teams down with our height.
So that is why Demercy is my compromise 5th starter. Alabi, Singleton, Kitchens start b/c obviously they are our most experienced, best overall players at this point. Kitchens at 2 for reasons already covered and CS at 4.
CS is a mismatch at 3 or 4 but we aren’t utilizing that at 3. To do so he needs to start posting the smaller guys that will be on him and taking them down low, maybe w/ some inverted high-low with Alabi out top. Alabi can do this bc/ he can consistently knock down the 14 footer. This would be a nightmare for anyone we play. It’s beyond stupid to have a 6’9" “mini-Labron” at 3 and all he does is spot up for 3s. However, if he’s at 4 you use the 3 threat to pull presumably slower guys out and go around them to the hole. I think this helps his overall game b/c he’s still tentative going to the rack, but should be more confident against a slower guy. Then his trey shooting becomes huge later in the yr when they have to respect you and back off.
Loucks at PG for reasons already discussed. I will add to that the answer to offensive woes is not to put your 5 best scorers out there. It’s to get your 2 or 3 scorers on the floor at any one time the ball in position to score most easily. This is what Loucks does head and shoulders above anyone else on this team. It’s not the between the legs stuff (which is fun) but the simple inlet pass to the guy posted up where he can turn & shoot, the swinging it to the other side to find the open man against the zone, finding the trail man for the spot up trey on the secondary break. You’ve gotta have this to have an effective O and Loucks is the guy who understands how and is capable of doing it. You have to mask his deficiencies (D and ballhandling) in other ways but this team is diverse enough to do that.
As for the 5th starter, I decided against Dulkys because his role of shooting teams out of zone is non-existent early as we’re too dysfunctional at the beginning to be patient enough to get him good shots and, frankly, he still looks scared shooting at the beginning of games against good teams. Maybe bringing him off the bench as “instant offense” helps his confidence as he’ll be shooting against tired starters or reserves who will presumably be a step slower. I expect (hope) Snaer will start here by the 2nd half of the ACC season but right now he is so erratic as a frosh that he doesn’t address the aforementioned problem. so right now also bring him off the bench against subs or tired starters.
Which leaves Demercy. he’s the compromise pick for now as he can defend SFs and is a pretty good rebounder. He certainly handles better than Reid and is capable of finishing which will conceivably help a great deal against the press. As an added possibility, I see his biggest problem as confidence, so maybe starting helps him w/ that. The downside of course is that he is a terrible shooter against zone, but that is your compromise.
I definitely agree with some of your assessments, but not your ultimate conclusion: I still
would not start Demercy.
Color commentator fran fraschilla foresaw in one of the early games the problems Coach Ham was going to have with having a lot of height and no good ball handlers/distributors. He said he would rather have some good ball handlers than the surplus of height we have. No doubt, finding someone to run the offense is going to be the Rubik’s Cube for Coach Ham this season. If he solves that problem, a very good season with a run in the Dance is a quite reachable goal.
I just think Demercy is far too erratic to start, and the evidence of that goes back to last year. Of course, so does the evidence that Loucks looks totally lost against good competition. I think you are asking for 20+ turnover games on a regular basis if you start Demercy and go with 2 guards (Kitchen & Loucks). I dont know if we have good enough ball handlers to stick with a 2 guard lineup.
My theory on going with 3 guards would be to spread out the ballhandling responsibilities as much as possible, with the ultimate goal being to try to reduce turnovers as much as we can. For this reason, I would prefer Kitchen, Snaer, Loucks, Singleton and Alabi to starting Demercy, and I would even toss Pierre Jordan out there in a 3 guard lineup to see if that can limit the turnovers. We know our offense has looked best this season with the 3 guards. Through the rest of the nonconf sked, and the early part of the ACC season, I would be looking for the 3 guard lineup that best limits turnovers. The analogy for me with the football team: just give me an average output turnover-wise. We got the height and athleticism to win in that case.
There is no way to peace; peace is the way.
It looks like we are in complete agreement
other than how soon to start MS. I did a quick TO/min for the roster. PG are usually highest b/c they handle most, followed by 2s & 3s, and your bigs lowest. Our bigs are bad at .09 (SA), .09 (RR) and .1 (XG). Our mids aren’t good at .11 (CS), .11 (MS), .06 (JD) and best on the team at .04 (DD). Our PGs are .09 (DK), .09 (LL) & worst on team .12 (PJ). Interestingly, I’m not sure our PGs handling the press is our biggest problem. We are overall just very sloppy w/ the ball.
Really feel the best offense for this team is 3 guards and Singleton and Alabi. More ball handlers to help with the pressure and more outside shot to open up the paint.
Will depend a lot on matchups of course…and the two toweres is nice but what’s the use in runniong fast break if you can’t get the ball up the floor?
"I am not now at all sure that the tendency to treat the whole thing as a kind of vast game is really good - certainly not for me who find that kind of thing only too fatally attractive." - J R R Tolkein
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