Blog Poll: Basketball Style Week 2, Version 2.2
by TrueCubbie on Feb 15, 2009 10:25 AM EST
in FSU Basketball
31 comments
Here is our entry for the CBS Blog Poll for this week...thoughts? comments? changes? All appreciated.
(Read FSUncensored excellent post below before you get to this)
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connecticut |  1 |
| 2 | North Carolina | 3 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | |
| 4 | Duke |  3 |
| 5 | Memphis | 1 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 7 | UCLA | 1 |
| 8 | Michigan St. | 10 |
| 9 | Clemson | 8 |
| 10 | Arizona St. | 5 |
| 11 | Louisville | 7 |
| 12 | Wake Forest | 2 |
| 13 | Missouri | 3 |
| 14 | Kansas | 2 |
| 15 | Villanova | 6 |
| 16 | West Virginia | 3 |
| 17 | Marquette | 8 |
| 18 | Gonzaga | 7 |
| 19 | Xavier | 3 |
| 20 | Purdue | 8 |
| 21 | Illinois | |
| 22 | Washington | 3 |
| 23 | Brigham Young | 3 |
| 24 | Butler | |
| 25 | California | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
0 recs |
31 comments
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Not to be a jerk, but this Poll is pretty horrendous
Some notes:
- Marquette is WAY too low. I know they’ve lost 2 of 3, but they are still tops in Big East at 10-2 and 21-4 overall. You have them at #24, I’d have them around #10
-West Virginia is WAY too high. They are 6-6 in conference and 17-8 overall. They’ve played a very tough schedule but are clearly NOT the #8 team in the country. Closer to #22 or so.
-Clemson and Wake should be MUCH higher than you have at #19 and #17 respectively.
I’d make an arguement they should both be Top 10.
-Clemson is 20-3 and has stomped your #4 team.
-Wake is 19-4 and has beat 2 of the Top 5.
Yet West Virginia is head and shoulders above them???
-UCLA is too high. They lost twice this week and have 6 losses overall. I’d move them to #14 or so.
-It’s time to include Dayton in the poll. They are 23-3. They have wins over Marquette, Auburn, and George Mason out of conference. They deserve a spot.
It's interesting, I guess that's how you have West Virginia so high and Marquette so low
I’m a little old school and put more credence into actual Wins and losses.
Perservering and winning shows the most stength to me.
That is why...but as you could see...I'm a little tentative to go completely on Pomeroy alone. I saw West Virginia the other night and they looked
good….granted that is one game and total recall bias. I have definitely bought into the Pomeroy school of basketball and I think that reflects my rankings….and it makes them a little less conventional. In reality, we all know that the fun of this is that it until the selection committee makes its decisions…all of this just makes for excellent discussion. As always, I appreciate your input Zach.
I’m working on a new version of the poll that will be up shortly…combines the AP/ESPN/Pomeroy and My own top 25….we’ll see how that turns out. It protects against the major biases in each poll. As I will be at work, the AP/ESPN polls reflect last weeks poll. Pomeroy is updated daily.
What are your thoughts on Quality wins and losses?
My Ballot would be
1. UConn
2. UNC
3. Pitt
4. Oklahoma
5. Memphis
6. Duke
7. Wake
8. Missouri
9. Clemson
10. Michigan State
11, Marquette
12. Kansas
13. Louisville
14. UCLA
15. Arizona State
16. Villanova
17. Gonzaga
18. Washington
19. Xavier
20. BYU
21. West Virginia
22. Illinois
23. Butler
24. Dayton
25. FSU
Big into Quality Wins...Quality losses not so much
It’s all about winning. Quality losses should be considered, but I am not impressed with a team like Tennessee this year who has had a really tough schedule, but usually loses.
I totally disagree
To me, it’s about how well a team plays. I look at a one point road loss to team A more favorably than beating them at home by one. this is especially important in basketball, where wins and losses don’t really matter as much when computing team strength. What does a team do with its possessions? What does it do to the opponent? Home-Away matters a ton in basketball. The win-loss is weak and is precisely why the committee came up with the RPI.
I reward teams for “quality losses”, while punishing them for bad performances. I do not give excessive credit for stomping horrible teams.
It’s all about the process (how a team plays) and not the results (win-loss). I think dealing in absolutes is dangerous. For instance, Ole Miss and Oregon last year in football. Their win-loss records weren’t all that impressive, but they played well even in their losses. Eventually, they stopped catching bad breaks and the quality of the team came shining through as they rolled in the late season.
West Virginia has 8 losses… and all of the losses are against Tourney teams (higher seeds at that).
My top 25:
UNC
Pittsburgh
UConn (don’t punish them yet, but they will collapse)
Memphis
Duke
Missouri
West Virginia
UCLA
AZST
Michigan ST
Clemson
Louisville
Oklahoma
Wake Forest
Villanova
Kansas
Gonzaga
Washington
BYU
Purdue
Georgetown
Illinois
Purdue
Marquette
The great thing about basketball is that the season is relatively long...yes we want to see teams do well through the entire season...but they are going to have their hiccups.
With the exception of Pitt and UConn, West Virginia has lost to Kentucky, Davidson, Marquette, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt on the road. Their overall strength of schedule is 3rd in the nation. Their out of conference schedule was 101. Their opponent’s overall offensive strength is 3rd in the country and their defensive strength is 7th. They looked extremely good the other night against a very good Villanova team. It also helps that they have the 6th best defense in the nation. I think in the long run, defense will get you further into a tournament. Classic NBA example: Phoenix Suns. All offense no defense….let down after let down.
Obviously, to win the NCAA tournament you need to be able to score points on a regular basis, but controlling the tempo of your opponent is a huge deal. Making them play out of their comfort zone or expected style of play kills a team’s confidence. I like West Virginia a lot and think they should be ranked higher in my poll and I may make a few last adjustments to reflect it, but I’m trying to incorporate the knowledge of the AP/ESPN who do reward wins and the statistical weight of Pomeroy.
TC, did you know that defense correlated to the sweet 16
and then a specific minimum level of offense correlates with getting to the final 4?
I forgot the numbers.
I’m also starting a “win your bracket” series, profiling over and underrated teams.
West Virginia is 9th in their own conference
And you have them 7th overall!
Just saying!
I know what you are getting at. You’d rather have a tested team that has played the best teams close, rather than a team that has had a great record with a soft schedule.
I agree, but having Oklahoma at 13 is just silly….way too hyberbolic of these opinions.
9th in their conference by conference record,
but consider who they’ve played in the conference. Some teams (like FSU) play a more difficult conference schedule early on.
Consider that WVU will be massive favorites in their last 5 conference games! They played a frontloaded schedule!
Wed Feb 18 (36) Notre Dame W, 79-67 69 86% Home
Sun Feb 22 (137) Rutgers W, 69-57 65 90% Away
Thu Feb 26 (62) Cincinnati W, 68-62 65 74% Away
Sun Mar 1 (117) South Florida W, 67-56 62 89% Away
Wed Mar 4 (221) DePaul W, 80-54 66 99% Home
The media will be all about how WVU is so hot now, but the fact is that the had a change in competition, not ability.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 16, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Quick clarification
Do we want this poll to be the Top 25 of teams we think can/win the tile, or a Top 25 based off performance up to this point?
Performance up to this point
The difference is you’re defining performance as wins and losses while I am trying to evaluate how they play more than the final result. I think.
So Butler lost to Loyola (Chicago) at home...they will move down.
Clemson lost to UVA in OT on the road…That should have been an easy victory. We went in there and handed it to them…
Miami and UNC tonight….should be good…and BC up on Duke with 10 to go.
And down goes Frasier....
Duke loses to BC in Chestnut Hill…what is up with this conference this year…
This is going to be an absolute race to the finish in the ACC...
Martin over at Blogger So Dear has a nice discussion on the rest of the ACC season…
BC is a top 25 team. Duke might not be top 10.
http://today.sportingnews.com/sportingnewstoday/20081229/?pg=2
duke is not competitive inside the acc
I think they end the season about 15th
course the biggest disappointment was FSU vs Wake
noles just died in front of us
C will go far in the tournament
but have to wait for that
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