Blog Poll: Basketball Style Week 3
by TrueCubbie on Feb 22, 2009 2:42 PM EST
in FSU Basketball
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PrintWell, it certainly has been an interesting week in basketball. Upsets galore. Bracketbusters galore. A 38-33 game. This was a tough week...except for FSU...
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| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh |  2 |
| 2 | Memphis | 3 |
| 3 | Connecticut |  2 |
| 4 | North Carolina | 2 |
| 5 | Duke | 1 |
| 6 | Clemson | 5 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 8 | Louisville | 1 |
| 9 | Missouri | 4 |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 2 |
| 11 | Arizona St. | 1 |
| 12 | West Virginia | |
| 13 | Wake Forest | 2 |
| 14 | Kansas | |
| 15 | Marquette | 2 |
| 16 | Gonzaga | 2 |
| 17 | UCLA | 10 |
| 18 | Purdue | 2 |
| 19 | Villanova | 3 |
| 20 | Washington | 2 |
| 21 | Texas | 3 |
| 22 | Illinois | 1 |
| 23 | Florida St. | |
| 24 | Louisiana St. | |
| 25 | Brigham Young | 2 |
| Last week's ballot | ||
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I think Kentucky should stay...
they look great against Tennessee yesterday, and maybe they should be in over LSU?
Probably a little generous with FSU, but overall this looks good.
No real gripes this week.
Yeah I was torn between Kentucky an LSU....
Kentucky did look good the other night, but they have lost to VMI, Miami, Louisville, UNC, Mississippi, South Carolina and Vanderbilt…for the most part very good teams.
LSU has only one conference loss to Alabama and has lost to Texas A&M, Utah and Xavier and beat the teams that Kentucky lost to. They play each other next Saturday…so it should answer the question.
Purdue is sunk
Last night Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal & Courier posted a report on his blog saying that "chances are" Purdue’s Robbie Hummel "has played his final game of the 2008-09 season." Washburn reports that Hummel’s vertebrae fracture has worsened.
If Washburn’s sources prove correct, this is terrible news for Matt Painter’s team. As already noted in Unfiltered, Hummel is absolutely critical to Purdue on both the offensive (three-point shooting) and defensive (rebounding) ends. The Boilermakers simply aren’t the same team without him.
Purdue plays three of their last five at home (Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern), with road games at Michigan and Michigan State. Hummel’s absence actually might not impact the Boilers’ record in those five games as much as it will cast doubt on how far this team can go in the NCAA tournament. If true it’s a very, very tough break for the Boilers.
That’s huge news to remember.
Call me ignorant,
but who played in the 38-33 game?
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Also
Marquette is ranked pretty high in your poll for barely holding off Georgetown…. a team that hasn’t looked good since the start of the season.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Georgetown has played everyone very close, however
and they might make the tournament.
They’ve been unlucky for sure.
They are about as "Unlucky"
as Notre Dame, who I know you don’t like. They have a worse conference record and the margin of defeat is about the same. Not to mention they have lost 8 of the last 10. I think Georgetown should be done. If they make the tourny, that’s a shame. The bubble is so weak.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Some of these teams are going to make some noise, come conference tourney time.
For reference, Notre Dame ranks 302nd in luck while Georgetown ranks 335th, both are relatively unlucky.
Notre Dame gets blown out, however, far more often.
Here are their conference games decided by 6 points or less:
Sat Jan 3 (104) St. John’s L, 71-65 68 Away 10-3 1-1
Mon Jan 5 (21) Georgetown W, 73-67 63 Home 11-3 2-1
Mon Jan 12 (9) Louisville L, 87-73 79 OT Away 12-4 3-2
Wed Dec 31 (220) DePaul W, 92-82 72 Away 10-2 1-0
Sat Jan 10 (86) Seton Hall W, 88-79 68 Home 12-3 3-1
Sat Jan 17 (33) Syracuse L, 93-74 79 Away 12-5 3-3
Sat Jan 24 (4) Connecticut L, 69-61 73 Home 12-6 3-4
Mon Jan 26 (22) Marquette L, 71-64 66 Home 12-7 3-5
Sat Jan 31 (3) Pittsburgh L, 93-80 70 Away 12-8 3-6
Wed Feb 4 (63) Cincinnati L, 93-83 73 Away 12-9 3-7
Thu Feb 12 (9) Louisville W, 90-57 69 Home 13-10 4-7
Sun Feb 15 (132) South Florida W, 67-57 60 Home 14-10 5-7
Wed Feb 18 (6) West Virginia L, 79-68 65 Away 14-11 5-8
Sat Feb 21 (81) Providence W, 103-84 77 Away 15-11 6-8
Notre Dame blew out Depaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Louisville, and got smoked by everyone else.
Georgetown is different.
Georgetown’s conference games within 6 points:
Mon Jan 5 (32) Notre Dame L, 73-67 63 Away 10-3 1-2
Thu Jan 22 (6) West Virginia L, 75-58 69 Home 12-5 3-3
Sun Jan 25 (86) Seton Hall L, 65-60 63 Away 12-6 3-4
Sat Feb 7 (63) Cincinnati L, 64-62 65 OT Home 13-9 4-7
Sat Feb 14 (33) Syracuse L, 98-94 76 OT Away 13-10 4-8
Sat Feb 21 (22) Marquette L, 78-72 63 Home 14-11 5-9
Georgetown is 0-7 in conference games decided by 6 points (2 possessions) or less. That is bad luck, outlier variance, etc.
Georgetown’s conference games not within 6 points:
Mon Dec 29 (4) Connecticut W, 74-63 62 Away 10-1 1-0
Sat Jan 3 (3) Pittsburgh L, 70-54 59 Home 10-2 1-1
Sat Jan 10 (81) Providence W, 82-75 73 Home 11-3 2-2
Wed Jan 14 (33) Syracuse W, 88-74 67 Home 12-3 3-2
Wed Jan 28 (63) Cincinnati L, 65-57 60 Away 12-7 3-5
Sat Jan 31 (22) Marquette L, 94-82 70 Away 12-8 3-6
Tue Feb 3 (135) Rutgers W, 57-47 61 Home 13-8 4-6
Wed Feb 18 (132) South Florida W, 65-40 61 Away 14-10 5-8
They have not been blown out near as often as you might expect.
Georgetown is a better team than FSU, and Notre Dame has an argument that they are as well.
Judging by wins-losses and SOS only, we’re better. Possession based metrics disagree.
by Bud Elliott on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting....
Thanks for those stats!
Outside of stats, I think the Georgetown FSU game would be a good matchup. I think we match up well against them with Alibi have a size advantage on Monroe and I think we would slow Summers significantly.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
An interesting question arises...
do you try to use the biggest sample set to evaluate a team? In basketball, the biggest sample set is Possessions. A team will have between 1700-2200 per regular season. 2000 is significantly larger than 30, which is the games in which you can measure wins and losses.
A game against Georgetown would be a clinic in horrible defensive rebounding— by both teams. They do run the Princeton, however, and that gave us fits when we faced Northwestern.
Thats when college basketball speak
goes over my head “They run the Princeton.” I’m a pretty simplistic basketball fan, esp college basketball.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Think of Georgia Tech's triple option
ie, a weird offense no one sees all year and gives teams fits because of it.
At least that’s my take on it :)
That is lingo
I understand. Forgive my basketball inadequacies.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
I think we'd do fine against the Princeton style at this point in the season...
We’ve seen it once already. It takes a lot of discipline and teamwork to defend against it….ie switching off screens, help D etc. It def wouldn’t give us the fits it did earlier in the year. At a neutral court we’d beat them in my opinion…
You never play friday and saturday in the big dance
There’s always a rest day. (thursday-saturday or friday-sunday)
Also, our big problem against NW was breaking down the press. We seem to have overcome that particular hurdle (Adding Kitchen has been a HUGE help in terms of ball-handling)
Sorry, Georgetown is not a better team than FSU
You can use all the statistical analysis you want….they are not winning games.
At the end of the day, losing close while being “effecient” is still not getting it done.
FSU is much better defensively than Georgetown as well.
14-12, 5-10 in the Big East
Don’t get me wrong, I love all the statistical background this site provides. I agree with 99% so I don’t want to come off as argumentative or illiterate. I see where your number come from, I understand the KenPom rankings….I just think there is a certain level of intangible that can’t just be “luck”.
How do you respond to a draught or a flurry?
How many times are you able to make a stop on a 2 on1 break.
How often do you get a finger on the ball at a crucial moment?
I think FSU possesses these intangibles or “little things” this year. Sure, some is luck: Vassalo could have easily hit the 3 against us at the buzzer. But there is an element of heart and fortitude that these statistics do not account for properly.
FSU has that this year, Georgetown doesn’t.
Wow
I think that’s twice now. (ESPN team of the week)
I’ll feel more comfortable about our tourney lock status if we win one more game.
Losing our next 5 would make me nervous come selection Sunday.
Yea same here.
We have to win at least 1 more for me to feel 100 percent confident come selection Sunday.
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