Blog Poll: Basketball Style Week 3

by TrueCubbie on Feb 22, 2009 2:42 PM EST in FSU Basketball Comment 28 comments

Well, it certainly has been an interesting week in basketball. Upsets galore. Bracketbusters galore. A 38-33 game. This was a tough week...except for FSU...

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Pittsburgh	2
2	Memphis	3
3	Connecticut	2
4	North Carolina	2
5	Duke	1
6	Clemson	5
7	Oklahoma	1
8	Louisville	1
9	Missouri	4
10	Michigan St.	2
11	Arizona St.	1
12	West Virginia
13	Wake Forest	2
14	Kansas
15	Marquette	2
16	Gonzaga	2
17	UCLA	10
18	Purdue	2
19	Villanova	3
20	Washington	2
21	Texas	3
22	Illinois	1
23	Florida St.
24	Louisiana St.
25	Brigham Young	2
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Xavier (#19), Kentucky (#25).

So this was a tough week and the bottom of the bracket has been a revolving door.

As you all know, I heavily rely on the Pomeroy rankings. But, to dilute that bias, I create my own poll, then take the average of Pomeroy, My Poll, the AP and the ESPN polls. This results in some major movement for some teams and not so much for others. And, the AP/ESPN polls are last weeks. My job doesn't allow me to update as the new polls come out, meaning there will be a delay in any shifts in those polls reflected here.

There are a couple of big games today after which I will make some changes.

Things to note, we're back in the poll, maybe a little generous at 23. Xavier and Kentucky drop out. UCLA continues to plumet. Pitt moves into the number one spot and Memphis jumps to number 2. Oklahoma only takes a small step down after a loss in Texas with out Griffin.

I look forward to your thoughts. This was a tough week to sort out and I'm happy to make changes.

Also check out my post on the tournament selection committee to see what we're up against this year.

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I think Kentucky should stay...

they look great against Tennessee yesterday, and maybe they should be in over LSU?

Probably a little generous with FSU, but overall this looks good.

No real gripes this week.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 22, 2009 3:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I was torn between Kentucky an LSU....

Kentucky did look good the other night, but they have lost to VMI, Miami, Louisville, UNC, Mississippi, South Carolina and Vanderbilt…for the most part very good teams.

LSU has only one conference loss to Alabama and has lost to Texas A&M, Utah and Xavier and beat the teams that Kentucky lost to. They play each other next Saturday…so it should answer the question.

by TrueCubbie on Feb 22, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Purdue is sunk

Last night Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal & Courier posted a report on his blog saying that "chances are" Purdue’s Robbie Hummel "has played his final game of the 2008-09 season." Washburn reports that Hummel’s vertebrae fracture has worsened.

If Washburn’s sources prove correct, this is terrible news for Matt Painter’s team. As already noted in Unfiltered, Hummel is absolutely critical to Purdue on both the offensive (three-point shooting) and defensive (rebounding) ends. The Boilermakers simply aren’t the same team without him.

Purdue plays three of their last five at home (Indiana, Ohio State, and Northwestern), with road games at Michigan and Michigan State. Hummel’s absence actually might not impact the Boilers’ record in those five games as much as it will cast doubt on how far this team can go in the NCAA tournament. If true it’s a very, very tough break for the Boilers.

That’s huge news to remember.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=172

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 22, 2009 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Call me ignorant,

but who played in the 38-33 game?

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 22, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Penn State beat Illinois.

by TrueCubbie on Feb 22, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Marquette is ranked pretty high in your poll for barely holding off Georgetown…. a team that hasn’t looked good since the start of the season.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 22, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Very good point. But Marquette is higher in most everyone else's polls except for Pomeroy. They were lower in my personal poll...but this is the way the math worked out.

by TrueCubbie on Feb 22, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Georgetown has played everyone very close, however

and they might make the tournament.

They’ve been unlucky for sure.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 22, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They are about as "Unlucky"

as Notre Dame, who I know you don’t like. They have a worse conference record and the margin of defeat is about the same. Not to mention they have lost 8 of the last 10. I think Georgetown should be done. If they make the tourny, that’s a shame. The bubble is so weak.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 23, 2009 9:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some of these teams are going to make some noise, come conference tourney time.

For reference, Notre Dame ranks 302nd in luck while Georgetown ranks 335th, both are relatively unlucky.

Notre Dame gets blown out, however, far more often.
Here are their conference games decided by 6 points or less:

Sat Jan 3 (104) St. John’s L, 71-65 68 Away 10-3 1-1
Mon Jan 5 (21) Georgetown W, 73-67 63 Home 11-3 2-1
Mon Jan 12 (9) Louisville L, 87-73 79 OT Away 12-4 3-2

Wed Dec 31 (220) DePaul W, 92-82 72 Away 10-2 1-0
Sat Jan 10 (86) Seton Hall W, 88-79 68 Home 12-3 3-1
Sat Jan 17 (33) Syracuse L, 93-74 79 Away 12-5 3-3
Sat Jan 24 (4) Connecticut L, 69-61 73 Home 12-6 3-4
Mon Jan 26 (22) Marquette L, 71-64 66 Home 12-7 3-5
Sat Jan 31 (3) Pittsburgh L, 93-80 70 Away 12-8 3-6
Wed Feb 4 (63) Cincinnati L, 93-83 73 Away 12-9 3-7
Thu Feb 12 (9) Louisville W, 90-57 69 Home 13-10 4-7
Sun Feb 15 (132) South Florida W, 67-57 60 Home 14-10 5-7
Wed Feb 18 (6) West Virginia L, 79-68 65 Away 14-11 5-8
Sat Feb 21 (81) Providence W, 103-84 77 Away 15-11 6-8

Notre Dame blew out Depaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Louisville, and got smoked by everyone else.

Georgetown is different.

Georgetown’s conference games within 6 points:
Mon Jan 5 (32) Notre Dame L, 73-67 63 Away 10-3 1-2
Thu Jan 22 (6) West Virginia L, 75-58 69 Home 12-5 3-3
Sun Jan 25 (86) Seton Hall L, 65-60 63 Away 12-6 3-4
Sat Feb 7 (63) Cincinnati L, 64-62 65 OT Home 13-9 4-7
Sat Feb 14 (33) Syracuse L, 98-94 76 OT Away 13-10 4-8
Sat Feb 21 (22) Marquette L, 78-72 63 Home 14-11 5-9

Georgetown is 0-7 in conference games decided by 6 points (2 possessions) or less. That is bad luck, outlier variance, etc.

Georgetown’s conference games not within 6 points:
Mon Dec 29 (4) Connecticut W, 74-63 62 Away 10-1 1-0
Sat Jan 3 (3) Pittsburgh L, 70-54 59 Home 10-2 1-1
Sat Jan 10 (81) Providence W, 82-75 73 Home 11-3 2-2
Wed Jan 14 (33) Syracuse W, 88-74 67 Home 12-3 3-2
Wed Jan 28 (63) Cincinnati L, 65-57 60 Away 12-7 3-5
Sat Jan 31 (22) Marquette L, 94-82 70 Away 12-8 3-6
Tue Feb 3 (135) Rutgers W, 57-47 61 Home 13-8 4-6
Wed Feb 18 (132) South Florida W, 65-40 61 Away 14-10 5-8

They have not been blown out near as often as you might expect.

Georgetown is a better team than FSU, and Notre Dame has an argument that they are as well.

Judging by wins-losses and SOS only, we’re better. Possession based metrics disagree.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting....

Thanks for those stats!

Outside of stats, I think the Georgetown FSU game would be a good matchup. I think we match up well against them with Alibi have a size advantage on Monroe and I think we would slow Summers significantly.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 23, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

An interesting question arises...

do you try to use the biggest sample set to evaluate a team? In basketball, the biggest sample set is Possessions. A team will have between 1700-2200 per regular season. 2000 is significantly larger than 30, which is the games in which you can measure wins and losses.

A game against Georgetown would be a clinic in horrible defensive rebounding— by both teams. They do run the Princeton, however, and that gave us fits when we faced Northwestern.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats when college basketball speak

goes over my head “They run the Princeton.” I’m a pretty simplistic basketball fan, esp college basketball.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 23, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Think of Georgia Tech's triple option

ie, a weird offense no one sees all year and gives teams fits because of it.

At least that’s my take on it :)

by pbysh on Feb 23, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That is lingo

I understand. Forgive my basketball inadequacies.

"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"

by UNFNOLE on Feb 23, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Essentially it's a very patient, probing attack that has guys moving in patterns not typically seen in major college basketball

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here are a couple of nice articles from ESPN about the Princeton Offense: Read the top one first, then the second. Hope this helps.

http://assets.espn.go.com/ncb/2003/0312/1522592.html

http://assets.espn.go.com/ncb/2003/0304/1517990.html

by TrueCubbie on Feb 23, 2009 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think we'd do fine against the Princeton style at this point in the season...

We’ve seen it once already. It takes a lot of discipline and teamwork to defend against it….ie switching off screens, help D etc. It def wouldn’t give us the fits it did earlier in the year. At a neutral court we’d beat them in my opinion…

by Renegade11 on Feb 23, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If we faced it in the tourney... on a Saturday after playing on a Friday.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You never play friday and saturday in the big dance

There’s always a rest day. (thursday-saturday or friday-sunday)

Also, our big problem against NW was breaking down the press. We seem to have overcome that particular hurdle (Adding Kitchen has been a HUGE help in terms of ball-handling)

by CelticPride on Feb 23, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True enough.

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, Georgetown is not a better team than FSU

You can use all the statistical analysis you want….they are not winning games.
At the end of the day, losing close while being “effecient” is still not getting it done.

FSU is much better defensively than Georgetown as well.

by Zach_Nole on Feb 23, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

What measure do you want to use?

Tomahawk Nation: No-Holds-Barred Nole Analysis

by FSUncensored on Feb 23, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

14-12, 5-10 in the Big East

Don’t get me wrong, I love all the statistical background this site provides. I agree with 99% so I don’t want to come off as argumentative or illiterate. I see where your number come from, I understand the KenPom rankings….I just think there is a certain level of intangible that can’t just be “luck”.

How do you respond to a draught or a flurry?
How many times are you able to make a stop on a 2 on1 break.
How often do you get a finger on the ball at a crucial moment?

I think FSU possesses these intangibles or “little things” this year. Sure, some is luck: Vassalo could have easily hit the 3 against us at the buzzer. But there is an element of heart and fortitude that these statistics do not account for properly.
FSU has that this year, Georgetown doesn’t.

by Zach_Nole on Feb 24, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs