Mens Basketball ACC Tournament Game #1 Georgia Tech @ FSU 2:20 PM EST
by Bud Elliott on Mar 12, 2009 11:48 PM EDT
in FSU Basketball
219 comments
Well well well. Here we are. I have to admit something: I wrote the preview for this game Wednesday night. Unfortunately, I wrote it anticipating a matchup with Clemson. A funny thing happened along the way, however, as the #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets upset the #5 seed Clemson Tigers.
Our amazing Basketball writer TrueCubbie is taking his medical boards. Pray that he does well, I'm sure he'd appreciate it. Looks like you're stuck with me. Inside you'll find our preview. It won't be as good as TrueCubbie's. I hope to make it close.
A little business trip to Atlanta cause we got a bug problem.
Preview Inside, let's do this.
What a wild conference weekend it's been so far. West Virginia played king of the mountain over Pitt. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State outdrew the Sooners of Oklahoma. The Baylor Bears clipped the Kansas Jayhawks. Heck, even the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech stung Clemson. Anything can and often does happen in college basketball. Conference tournaments are even crazier because teams often have varying levels of desperation and motivation.
So, why are we playing Georgia Tech and not Clemson?
Because Georgia Tech had their 2nd best shooting night in almost two years. They did other things well, like grabbing their misses (and there weren't many), but for the most part their shots just went down. Clemson didn't play a bad game, GTech just hit shots. More on them later.
We've discussed how cool it is to have a bye over the past week. You improve your odds of winning the tournament by virtue of playing one less game. You don't have to play on back to back to back to back days (if you were do lucky). If there's another advantage, however, I think it's focus. Maybe focus isn't the right word. Maybe it should be awareness. Georgia Tech is not a good team. Clemson got trapped today. I don't think there is any risk that the 'Noles will take Georgia Tech lightly. They know that Clemson is a good team and saw GTech blitz the tigers today.
Florida State has a real chance to do something special.
Our buddy jacob over at vegaswatch.blogspot posted this chart earlier in the week:
He thought that the 'Noles were the 5th most likely team to win the tournament. If you don't understand the chart, move on. It's not essential. Two things have happened since Jacob put this together. First, UNC announced that stud PG (and undeserving ACC PotY) Ty Lawson would be doubtful for the tournament. Second, Clemson lost. FSU is looking as games against Georgia Tech, and then (presumably) UNC and Wake/ Duke. That's very tough. It's alot tougher, however, to run through Clemson, a healthy UNC, and then the winner of Wake v. Duke. FSU started this tournament at about 15/1 to take home the ACC crown. Right now they're probably about 9/1 to pull into the final station (Jeff Cameron Tournament Train shoutout).
Earlier in the week Evenflow58 posted an enjoyable fanshot, discussing the merits of performing well in a conference tournament. I actually said that I would prefer to lose this game and take the rest time, as I didn't see the 'Noles improving their seed much. I've now pulled a 180. FSU has a real shot to do some damage against this weakened field (and get full credit for beagting some name schoole).
Besides the ACC title, there could be something else on the line here: Miami. FSU is a candidate to play in the East Regional. That would mean playing their first two tournament games in Miami, a place rich with FSU alums. A win against Georgia Tech would go a long way torwards letting the 'Noles stay home. The alternative is Boise or Portland. I'm not a fan of cold weather.
So, what's happened since we last played Georgia Tech on February 5th?
Well, Leonard Hamilton was named ACC Coach of the Year, Toney Douglas won ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and was the top scorer in the ACC during ACC play. Somehow, the best defensive player was also the guy who scored the most in conference, and yet Toney Douglas did not win the ACC player of the year. Go Figure.
Here's the table from out 62-58 win over Tech on February 5th.
Terrible shooting night. Our defense played well. If we shoot closer to 45%…this game isn’t even close. If we rebound a couple more shots, it’s not even close. __ TrueCubbie
We had a 10 day layoff before playing Tech the last time. The 'Noles looked rusty at best, struggling with their shot.
Both teams have improved since February 5th.
In fact, here's an interesting graphic showing the Pomeroy Prediction against the Vegas Prediction, throughout the season.
The Red line is the spread for each game minus the current Pomeroy prediction for that game. The Black line uses a moving average of the five most recent games to provide a more useful comparison; that can be seen as a snapshot of the oddsmakers' opinion of the team at that point in time, compared to their current Pomeroy rating. FSU is favored by 5 over GTech. Considering this is a pseudo home game for them (Georgia Tech is in Atlanta), that's probably a good line.
Here's Tech's Four Factors (does not include the win over Clemson)
Offense Defense
Adj Efficiency : 99.0 (214) 91.7 ( 29)
Effective FG% : 47.6 (228) 46.6 ( 63)
Turnover Pct. : 22.5 (282) 21.6 (108)
Off. Rebound% : 35.0 ( 95) 32.1 (135)
Free Throw Rate: 36.1 (183) 39.4 (243)
3-Point FG% : 32.2 (255) 32.4 ( 69)
2-Point FG% : 47.4 (196) 45.6 ( 73)
Free Throw Pct.: 62.5 (322) 68.2 (134)
Block Pct. : 6.0 ( 16) 12.8 ( 27)
Steal Pct. : 11.7 (312) 11.1 ( 75)
3PA/FGA : 25.8 (315) 33.5 (197)
A/FGM : 56.8 (105) 56.2 (232)
What stands out? Tech can't shoot, they can't hold onto the ball, and they really can't defend without fouling. Tech cannot shoot 3 pointers at all. 255th in the Nation is really bad. They are almost dead last nationally in free throw shooting %. They play incredibly fast (21st Nationally in tempo). Tech does play good defense (29th nationally), and they are rough. They block shots well. Further, Tech never gets their shot blocked. Ever. Tech will play mostly man defense. They are 28th in effective height.
Here's their lineup.
| Ht | Wt | Yr | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | Blk% | Stl% | FTRate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major Contributors | |||||||||||||||||
| 31 | Gani Lawal National Rank |
6-8 | 216 | So | 72.9 | 102.1 | 24.7 366 |
24.2 | 55.5 252 |
56.1 428 |
12.7 86 |
21.1 113 |
5.0 | 18.4 | 5.5 150 |
1.9 | 54.9 168 |
| Significant Contributors | |||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Iman Shumpert National Rank |
6-4 | 185 | Fr | 77.5 388 |
88.5 | 23.0 | 18.9 | 44.2 | 48.8 | 2.2 | 10.7 | 29.9 92 |
28.9 | 0.7 | 3.5 137 |
47.9 291 |
| 44 | Alade Aminu National Rank |
6-10 | 225 | Sr | 66.5 | 99.2 | 22.1 | 24.2 | 52.5 450 |
53.7 | 10.6 222 |
22.0 80 |
5.3 | 18.8 | 6.4 106 |
2.4 | 31.6 |
| 0 | Lewis Clinch National Rank |
6-3 | 195 | Sr | 64.5 | 95.8 | 22.3 | 26.9 279 |
45.4 | 47.4 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 18.1 | 17.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 20.1 |
| 35 | Zachery Peacock National Rank |
6-8 | 235 | Jr | 59.7 | 94.4 | 21.0 | 21.8 | 47.1 | 51.0 | 9.6 354 |
11.0 | 7.2 | 22.0 | 3.1 385 |
2.3 | 32.2 |
| 3 | Maurice Miller National Rank |
6-1 | 181 | So | 43.6 | 78.9 | 21.0 | 16.6 | 34.3 | 40.9 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 28.9 116 |
30.7 | 0.6 | 2.6 434 |
48.8 |
TrueCubbie from Feb 5th:
So what do you need to know about their guys? Lawal, a 6'8 216 So, is their major offensive threat and rarely comes off the floor. He gets the ball on a quarter of possible possessions. He shoots an eFG of 56% and takes an overwhelming majority of their shots. He also gets it done on the offensive and defensive glass, ranking 69th and 98th nationally in OR% and DR%. This is the GTech equivalent of Tyler Hansbrough (just an analogy...they are not in the same category...but in terms of constantly hustling).His is an athletic beast and it will be interesting to see how we match up with him. He gets it done in the paint night in and night out. If we want to keep Tech out of this game, we have to limits his work down low.
Alade Aminu, a 6'10 Sr. and Iman Shumpert 6'4 185 Fr are their next best players. Neither gets a lot done on the offensive end but certainly worth paying close attention to.(However, Shumpert lead the way to Tech's win over Wake) Shumpert has done an excellent job stepping into the starting role and playing a ton of minutes. He does distribute the ball well but has a tendency to turn it over as well, with a 28% TO%. Keep in mind that point guards are more likely to have higher TO% than a center for example.
Now the 'Noles numbers:
Offense Defense
Adj Efficiency : 104.6 (114) 88.0 ( 9)
Effective FG% : 48.7 (184) 44.5 ( 19)
Turnover Pct. : 22.7 (291) 23.0 ( 43)
Off. Rebound% : 35.2 ( 82) 35.5 (276)
Free Throw Rate: 40.6 ( 67) 35.6 (157)
3-Point FG% : 33.7 (180) 32.2 ( 63)
2-Point FG% : 47.7 (185) 42.3 ( 16)
Free Throw Pct.: 72.5 ( 56) 68.3 (138)
Block Pct. : 8.1 (122) 16.0 ( 6)
Steal Pct. : 10.1 (202) 12.3 ( 27)
3PA/FGA : 33.8 (145) 36.2 (280)
A/FGM : 52.8 (205) 47.1 ( 23)
Season long fans are familiar with our turnover woes. The poor defensive rebounding is of course concerning. Know what's not concerning? Our beastly defense that keeps the Garnet and Gold in every game they play. 9th in the Nation is special, and we've been in the top 10 defensively for the last month. We block better than one in 7 shots.
| Ht | Wt | Yr | %Min | ORtg | %Poss | %Shots | eFG% | TS% | OR% | DR% | ARate | TORate | Blk% | Stl% | FTRate | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Major Contributors | |||||||||||||||||
| 23 | Toney Douglas National Rank |
6-2 | 205 | Sr | 90.1 36 |
114.0 232 |
27.2 159 |
30.9 72 |
50.6 | 56.8 370 |
2.8 | 9.5 | 20.7 421 |
14.0 238 |
1.5 | 3.1 224 |
45.4 341 |
| Significant Contributors | |||||||||||||||||
| 32 | Solomon Alabi National Rank |
7-1 | 241 | Fr | 54.8 | 101.2 | 20.3 | 21.2 | 53.3 | 55.9 | 12.2 110 |
17.0 399 |
4.1 | 21.8 | 10.9 12 |
1.5 | 34.9 |
| 41 | Uche Echefu National Rank |
6-9 | 225 | Sr | 53.0 | 107.4 | 20.1 | 19.8 | 48.9 | 57.6 | 8.1 | 17.9 310 |
5.5 | 20.1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 58.5 |
| 42 | Ryan Reid National Rank |
6-8 | 235 | Jr | 48.1 | 82.2 | 20.1 | 16.5 | 43.6 | 48.1 | 9.8 329 |
11.9 | 8.7 | 31.3 | 3.7 285 |
2.0 | 52.6 |
| Role Players | |||||||||||||||||
| 31 | Chris Singleton National Rank |
6-9 | 220 | Fr | 66.0 | 93.0 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 45.9 | 49.0 | 9.0 431 |
12.0 | 8.6 | 22.8 | 5.1 171 |
3.6 108 |
44.4 359 |
| 22 | Derwin Kitchen National Rank |
6-4 | 197 | So | 44.3 | 101.0 | 19.2 | 18.8 | 52.1 | 55.0 | 4.6 | 14.1 | 20.1 453 |
24.1 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 35.7 |
| 4 | Deividas Dulkys | 6-5 | 195 | Fr | 28.5 | 88.5 | 17.5 | 22.6 | 40.7 | 43.1 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 19.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 11.1 |
| 1 | Xavier Gibson | 6-11 | 225 | Fr | 14.7 | 98.2 | 18.2 | 19.1 | 51.1 | 53.5 | 6.0 | 16.9 | 4.9 | 19.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 48.9 |
| Limited Roles | |||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Jordan DeMercy National Rank |
6-7 | 208 | So | 50.0 | 81.4 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 44.5 | 46.5 | 4.1 | 11.1 | 17.4 | 35.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 25.0 |
| 3 | Luke Loucks National Rank |
6-5 | 205 | Fr | 44.4 | 85.9 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 48.3 | 50.8 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 23.8 269 |
36.8 | 0.4 | 3.0 253 |
27.0 |
Keys to the game:
- GTech wants to play very fast. The 'Noles want to play at a moderate tempo. I advocate a very slow tempo here because it will frustrate Tech, an athletic team that is totally inept at half court offense.
- Play ugly! A clutch and grab, physical basketball game with lots of fouls favors the 'Noles. GTech fouls a lot, while FSU. Flst shoots free throws very well (56th nationally), while GTech can't hit at all (322nd nationally). Additionally, the 'Noles are a lot deeper than the Yellow Jackets.
- PATIENCE on offense. Tech can't help but fouling people. They are not fundamentally sound at all. Jacking up questionable 3pt shots early in the shot clock is never a good idea, but it would be especially foolish today. So would trying to run with this Yellowjacket squad. The 'Noles live at the line and GTech will oblige us if we're patient.
- NO easy 2pt shots for Tech.. GTech can't shoot 3's or free throws. They make their living on the fast break and on the inside, as they are pretth athletic. FSU must block their shot or foul them hard if they come inside. As Tim Floyd of USC says "you might beat us, but you're not going to beat us your way." That applies here. Turn Tech into a jump shooting team. If GTech shoots 40% from 3pt land and gets us in foul trouble while hitting their free throws, the 'Noles will tip their cap and get ready for the tournament. Will they be able to? Doubtful.
- Playing on the last key, do not allow 2nd chance points. Tech is a decent but not great offensive rebounding team.
TV: ESPN2 or Comcast or "http://www.justin.tv/insgadget"
This one's for all the Marbles Na...
This one's for the Palms.
Let's get to Miami! GO NOLES!
Note: when this thread gets bogged down with comments, please switch to this overflow thread. Once the switch is made, please let people know.
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Ok question
Does anyone know who’s covering the game? ESPN? I’m in Fort Lauderdale (Davie) right now with Comcast.
Remember, stats humor threatens credibility.
You wouldn’t want to introduce bias to your readership.
Sorry for the hijack, btw. I figured since it was still about basketball it was a pretty standard deviation from our discussion.
I am shot for today.
Next Thursday and Friday had already been written off.
Now, I’m no economist, and I try to not be an alarmist, but if I had to give my reasonable best guess: I’d say that 70 minutes of basketball did irreversible damage to our economy.
XKCD is awesome
Although solutions don’t have complexity classes. Problems do.
5.5 is a big line
for an anticipated defensive struggle and a team coming off a big upset.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Huge line.
Though they usually figure this way with teams having 24-hour turnover vs. well-rested. (Not me being expert, just how it seems based on experience.) By the way, I love this tournament! Even before FSU joined, I was raised in an ACC family – many family members with loyalties to different ACC schools!
This game is on ESPN's Streak for Cash as well...
and they typically but trap games on there. 98% of America is on the Noles. I dont like that at all.
Not sure if anyone else participates in that but its a lot of fun.
I'm sick to my stomach.
I will not Play GTech. I will not play GTech. I will not play GTech…
by Bud Elliott on Mar 13, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
so what is the expected tip-off time
I want to plan my lunch break around it so I can catch the first half on TV
It will be around 25-30 minutes after the UNC-VaTech game ends
so barring OT it will prob start around 2:30 give or take 10 minutes
thanks I guess I will wait to the end of the UNC game
And then see what the expected tip off time will be.
Break it down...
Neither VT or UNC foul people (UNC NEVER FOULS), so there will be little stoppage. I’ll say 220
by Bud Elliott on Mar 13, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
the games won't start before the scheduled start time
by nolesblogger on Mar 13, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
yes it is
“***The second game of a doubleheader will begin approximately 20 minutes after the conclusion of the first game, but no earlier than the scheduled starting time.”
by nolesblogger on Mar 13, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Love the Yellow Jacket picture lol.
GO NOLES!
p.s. I love the players facebook status’s (stati?) on gamedays.
by thirdcoastnole on Mar 13, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
Join the revolution, fellas....
It’s a Facebook world. We’re all just applications trying to invite 15 friends.
His name is Robert Paulson
His name is Robert Paulson
His name is Robert Paulson
His name is Robert Paulson
His name is Robert Paulson
His name is Robert Paulson
Chris Singleton is “Bout to Take-off!” vs. Georgia Tech at 2:30 on espn2.
Jordan DeMercy is game time!!!! 2 on espn2.
These are just from this morning. Rather tame and on the normal side today.
by thirdcoastnole on Mar 13, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah the basketball players don't typically "go into beast mode"
at least not the same way Nigel does… but then again, who does?
by nolesblogger on Mar 13, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Chuck Amato.
Oh, beast mode. Sorry, misread that.
(Today’s quota of needless Chuck Amato jokes has been met.)
How many Chuck Amatos does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
The answer is unknown. Thus far, Chuck Amato has only screwed Seminole fans and recruits!
Jesus, Katie Couric, and Chuck Amato walk into a bar.
Bartender: Wow… this is great. I’m so happy to have you guys here. It’s actually kind of funny to see the three of you together given how much you are alike.
Jesus: I’m not really all that sure what we have in common.
Katie Couric: It must be our charisma. The ability to draw people to us.
Bartender: Oh no that’s not it.
Jesus: Is it our status as icons on the internet?
Bartender: No way!!
Chuck Amato: I know it, fellas. It’s our ability to be leaders of men. How we can inspire and influence them to follow us.
Bartender: Not even close. Right here, at my bar, I’ve got the King of the Jews, the Queen of the News, and the Jester in the Red Shoes!!!
Parenthetical B the W:
In case you couldn’t tell I totally just made that last joke up.
\pats self on back for terrible joke
It's amazing...
… to see what UNC and Duke get away with when it comes to officiating in this league. Carolina plays 20 minutes of second-half man-to-man defense and with a minute left, they’ve been called for 3 …THREE .. team fouls. Then VT’s big man gets tackled by Hansbrough and there is no call.
Even though I think a Carolina victory was better for the Noles,
I couldn’t root for that shade of Blue (or any other ACC Blue for that matter)
Hansbra got so many calls, while the whistles were dead at the other end.
Does anyone have a link that works for those of us at work?
i dont think that one FSUn had listed is working. it says the guy is out of town
Can someone please ask Tyler Hansborough to close his mouth when he plays?
Seriously, the guy’s mouth is always partially open. He looks like a damn bass with those fish eyes and open mouth.
Clinch is trying to win the ACC tournament all by himself.
13-6 early Nole lead.
Clinch has 5 of GT’s points.
We came out sharp, but we are starting to play some sloppy ball with 2nd string in.
by thirdcoastnole on Mar 13, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
nice block
but he got so much of it, I think he didnt have to knock it out of bounds.
Nice little run we are goin on.
GT has am impressive little press.
They are really gettin after the ball
GT doesn't look terribly impressive.
"I am the way, the truth, and the life, no one gets to the Father but through me"
Do they anyone down low to defend against Alabi?
I really wish we’d go through him everytime down the floor
We are going to look like we gave up a bunch of offensive rebounds in this first half but we’ve got to have at least 5 blocks at this point.
Ugly 1st half by both teams.
We came on a little bit towards the end of the half, but I wasn’t pleased with our play. I guess I’ll take a 6 point lead at half though.
One key
We played 10 guys in the first half, they played 8.
Given that they played last night, I would expect that it will be difficult for them to hold up for the entire 20 minutes of the second half — like VT, they will struggle to get over the hump.
1st half stats
Points 27 33
Field Goals 9-26 (34.6) 14-25 (56.0)
Free Throws 6-10 (60.0) 3-4 (75.0)
3-pointers 3-9 (33.3) 2-8 (25.0)
Personal Fouls 6 9
Not pretty in the first half
But as mentioned above, I think we wear them out in the second half.
If we can rebound their misses (66% of their shots)...
this is a blow out….
Toney Douglas looks like a pro out there… 6-7 in the first half for 13 points.
35-27 FSU
Sloppy start to second half...
Fouls on Singleton and Kitchen and Loucks…
BIG JAM by Alabi
41-33 FSU
41-36 FSU…
Still sloppy…
Loucks with two consecutive beautiful dimes
Slams by Echefu and Alabi
FSU is still shooting well... 19-31 61%
Douglas 8-10 17pts
Alabi 4-5 8pts
I’m concerned about the fouls…
12 on FSU, 8 on GT, Kitchen is the only with 3, Singleton and Lou
I can't stand him but...
I think he plays solid D (except for the stupid fouls). I would trade a slight drop in D for a lack of TOs and fouls though. I wish he was a senior.
FLORIDA STATE
NO PLAYER FGM-A 3PM-A FTM-A PF PTS
23 · T Douglas 9/12 1/3 0/0 1 19
32 · S Alabi 5/6 0/0 0/0 1 10
22 · D Kitchen 2/5 0/1 1/2 3 5
31 · C Singlet 2/2 1/1 0/0 2 5
41 · U Echefu 1/5 0/1 2/2 1 4
1 X Gibson 2/3 0/0 0/0 1 4
4 D Dulkys 1/2 0/1 0/0 0 2
3 L Loucks 0/2 0/2 0/0 3 0
42 R Reid 0/0 0/0 0/0 3 0
2 J DeMercy 0/1 0/1 0/0 0 0
TEAM TOTALS 22/38 2/10 3/4 15 49
anyone have a new link to watch online, justin.tv went out
by FtLauderdaleNole on Mar 13, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions
Woohoo! Late but
finally getting to watch it
btw I found a link here:
http://www.atdhe.net/live-tv-4923.html
Looks like we’re going to the wire folks. Need good execution down the stretch.
by FtLauderdaleNole on Mar 13, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
How is it robbery
when we’re playing like crap?
Nice fundamentals, Coach of the Year.
and btw, contrary to FSUn’s write-up, their 3 pt and FT percentages are significantly higher than ours.
There has to be better ball handlers on the team then what is on the floor
Ball control is one of the fundamental things about basketball.
that was the same play
that D Wade missed at the end of the first OT the other night against the Bulls. Exact same play.
Let's bring the
post-game discussion over to the overflow thread
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Wow that was close.
I’m glad we got the win though. Lets hope Lawson dosent play tomorrow.
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