Inside the Numbers: Parsing Florida State's Passers via Yards Per Pass Play
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 5:00 AM EDT
in FSU Football
342 comments
** Apologies for the typos. I typically come up with this stuff after I finish my LS reading, which is often late at night.**
Longtime readers will remember that our group of writers initially hit it big with The Weatherford Report, a piece that stirred up a lot of controversy at other sites. The Quarterback always inspires debate because he is single most important position on the field.
Before we get to the numbers, let's review some qualifiers.
- Many believe that the 2008 offensive line was far better than the 2007 edition at run blocking, but much worse in pass protection. I agree with this, and the player's body composition supports this. The 2008 edition fit Trickett's vision in that they were what he wanted his freshmen linemen, but he never planned on playing the youngest line in the nation. Our protections were quite simple and often ineffective as we didn't have the bulk to handle some of the inside moves, compensated for the lack of bulk by tightening our formations, with the unfortunate consequence of allowing a lot of outside rush. I believe that problem will be somewhat resolved this year.
- All of the raw data that I extrapolated these numbers from came from Seminoles.com, and any inaccuracy in the raw data is a result of the official scorekeeper. Some of these scorer's decisions are judgment calls. Occasionally the FSU scorer calls a bubble screen a run. I can't figure out any rhyme or reason to the decision. I made no attempt to change these scoring decisions.
- I made no adjustment for bad snaps.
- I did edit out kneel downs and hail Mary attempts.
- Yards Per Attempt (not completion) is the best stat for measuring quarterback play. The key is that it, in effect, combines completion percentage and yards per completion. The NFL QBs who have had the highest totals ever in a season are as diverse as Joe Montana (exceptionally high completion percentage) to more long-ball throwers. It penalizes the guy who inflates his completion percentage and the guy who points to his long-balls while ignoring how inefficient he is.
- The accepted standard adjustment (SmartFootball.blogspot) for an interception is negative forty five yards (-45 yds). The experts who work for NFL teams (and UF and Michigan) crunched the numbers, and this is about what an interception takes away from you in terms of field position, scoring probability, etc.
- The other problem is QB sacks/runs. College stats make this hard of course: in the NFL, sacks are counted against passing yards and thus factored into yards per attempt. In college, sacks are recorded as rushing yards. I parsed out the sacks and they are now classified like the NFL would.
Inside you'll find four charts. That's right... four. Go crazy folks.
| ACC Play Only (& No Duke) | Passing Plays* | Attempts | Completions | Yards | Int's | 1st Downs + TDs | Sacked | Yards Lost | Rushes | Yards | 1st Downs + TD's (Rushing) |
| Weatherford (2007) | 132 | 123 | 67 | 737 | 0 | 35 | 9 | -40 | 18 | 52 | 3 |
| Ponder (2008) | 226 | 212 | 120 | 1252 | 10 | 64 | 14 | -111 | 72 | 419 | 31 |
* Passing plays are throws + sacks.
Those are the Raw Numbers. Here are the advanced numbers:
Note that "Yards Per Pass Play" is= ((Passing Yards - the yards lost from sacks -(interceptions *45))/ (Passes Thrown + Sacks))
| Weatherford (2007) | Ponder (2008) | |
| Yards Per Passing Play | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| % of passing plays ending in Sacks | 6.8% | 6.2% |
| % of passing plays resulting in a 1st Down or Touchdown | 26% | 28% |
| Yards Per Rush (sacks are removed) | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| % of Quarterback runs resulting in a 1st Down or Touchdown | 17% | 43% |
- 5.3 and 3.1 yards per pass play are both unacceptable.
- Our passing game was not good in 2008. Ponder's throwing wasn't good
- Very difficult to ascertain how many of Ponder's runs were called passes in which he escaped the rush.
- Ponder's throws resulted in a 1st down or touchdown more often than Weatherford, despite Weatherford throwing for 70% more yards per passing play. What does this show? More than anything, I believe it shows that Drew threw to avoid interceptions and sacks, and not necessarily for TD's and 1st downs-- but that's old Weatherford stuff.
- Ponder was much more mobile but sacked more frequently than Drew. This seems to support the idea that the offensive line was quite bad in pass protection. For a comparison, Drew was sacked on 33% of pass plays in 2008 (compared to Ponder's 6.8%), more than 4 times as often.
- Ponder needed to check it down more often, particularly on 2nd down. I particularly remember him missing Antone underneath on some wheel routes.
- Side Note: in handling this, I found that we handled the blitz really well, but struggled with teams who could destroy our 5 and 6 man pass protections with only a standard 4 man rush (not a blitz) and play 7 man coverage.
- Ponder's rushing numbers really bode well for those of us who believe the threat of him keeping the ball kept defenses honest and improved the overall effectiveness of our run game as the backs had better holes. The new look run blocking line also helped.
Were the opponents the same?
I attempted to compare apples to apples, but things do change from season to season.
| Team | 2007 Defensive Rank | 2008 Defensive Rank |
| Wake Forest | 33rd | 3rd |
| Clemson | 11th | 4th |
| Maryland | 56th | 54th |
| Virginia Tech | 3rd | 10th |
| Boston College | 17th | 2nd |
| Miami | 43rd | 61st |
| NCST | 47th | 58th |
| Georgia Tech | Did Not Face | 28th |
| Average Opponent's Defensive Rank Rank | 30th | 27th |
3 spots doesn't seem like much, but that does add up over time. I'd rather face the 30th rated defense rather than the 27th rated defense each week.
Did anyone realize how bad Miami's defense has been over the last two years?
Offense v. Defense
| Team Rank | Opponent Adjusted Offensive Rank | Opponent Adjusted Defensive Rank | |
| 2006 (7-6, 3-5 ACC) | 33rd | 47th | 31st |
| 2007 (7-6, 3-5 ACC) | 37th | 82nd | 31st |
| 2008 (9-4, 5-3 ACC) | 10th | 15th | 20th |
- That 2007 offense was really bad.
- We probably underrated the impact that a running quarterback can have in college football.
- That 15th rated offense is not a typo-- we played a murderous schedule of defenses.
- 2008 was the first time in this decade (to my knowledge) that the offense was better than the defense. Still, it was only slightly better. Expect the offense to significantly outperform the defense for the first time... well... since 1990.
Final Word
This offense was the 15th best in the Nation last year by the most reliable measure, but it can still improve tremendously. If FSU can increase its yards per pass play to 5.5, it will be in contention as a top five offense Nationally. It should remain as the best offense in the ACC.
Future Work
If you would like to sign up for a small project (less than 20 minutes) to go through a game's play by play data, please let me know. Let me know which ACC game you wish to go through. It's only 40 lines of data.
AP Photo (yes, we partnered with the AP now in a deal for pictures).
What do you think? We want your thoughts.
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outstanding
The stats seem funny to me. We did very well on converting first downs. I look at the Yards Per Passing Play and wonder how we did it. It also seemed like we didnt run near as much as we did this season. But, Ponder didnt throw long balls, he would tuck it and run, and bubbles are counted as runs for the most part. It all adds up. I think the passing game improving this year is not on the o-line or Ponder, its on the WR. They are the ones that have to step up. FSU is going to be tested right off the bat with Miami. If there were anything I would want the Off to work on it would be the WR/QB reads and timing, Qb placement of the ball to the WR, Passblocking. I think we should be able to run on just about anyone if we are healthy
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I think you really see the gap
in 3rd and long.
For instance, Ponder might convert one 3rd and 11 for 12 yards, and throw incomplete on the other two.
We know that Weatherford was happy to take 6 yards on 3rd and 11, even though it wasn’t helping the team.
The proper method, of course, is to try for the first down and make the throw if it makes sense (not into triple coverage).
Is it reasonable to expect to convert 3rd and 7+? Depends on the defense. If they blitz, you might be able to. If they drop 7 and are able to get pressure with 4 (particularly pressure up the middle), then you won’t often convert them.
I speak about line play a lot because I believe it is important— but that’s not to say Ponder didn’t do a bad job in some situations. To throw all the blame at any one player or unit is inaccurate.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting numbers
I wonder how big of an effect counting bubble screens as runs had on the passing stats. I imagine it’s pretty significant. I would be interested in helping out with the data btw. No preference on the game.
I would imagine it to be fairly significant.
I remember us getting about 7 yards per bubble screen in the first half of the Miami game. We also used it very effectively against NC State.
the other 10%
caught behind or even with the line of scrimage and by rule are runs
by realnole1128 on Apr 15, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
For the first time in years...
I actually think we’ll be able to outscore people. If we get any kind of defensive contribution at all, we could have a better-than-expected 2009 season.
I do believe the defense will be better than expected, which is the reason we have a great shot at 10 wins this year.
The Garnet and Gold koolaid sure does taste great...
I’m drinking it too…lol
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Or create new flavors...
Intensity Red and Golden Naps
Haha.
Those flavors leave a bad taste in your mouth.
Not only will we be able to-- but we might have to.
I am almost in favor of the defense gambling a lot, giving up big plays in exchange for turnovers, because at least that gets our offense on the field more often.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, the ol' let 'em score quick strategy.
Long drives for us, big plays or nothing for them. Keep their defense on the field, ours off the field. If the game is close at the end, our defense has the advantage. Works great unless we’re playing GT… :(
The Gators lived and died on the big play last year. Apparently it worked well.
Last fall I wrote this preview that illustrates the speed with which they scored. If our offense can put up numbers like this, we’ll be fine as I think our defense will be able to contain our opponents. By contain, I mean bend not break, which is a drastic departure from where it has been previously. This doesn’t directly correspond to your post, but just some numbers on offensive efficiency and rapid scoring teams.
Turnovers:
We have all mentioned we must win the turnover battle…in my opinion, we can’t turn the ball over at all. The Gators have caused 28 turnovers this year, leading to 19 scores for a total of 125 points. 5 of those turnovers have been returned for touchdowns. Except for the Miami game, UF has scored immediately following a turnover in every other game; this is a huge momentum killer for their opponents.
Creating turnovers will be difficult. They have only coughed up the ball 10 times all year. And only 3 times, have those turnovers immediately led to points (twice in the Ole Miss game and once in the LSU game). This differential turns into a 108 point advantage for UF, translating into an extra 9.8 points per game off turnovers alone.
Efficient Offense:
We know that the Gators can score, but I never realized how quickly they do it. They score a ridiculous 0.76 points per play or 3.56 points per drive, meaning they are essentially guaranteed to score if they get the ball. Clearly our goal should be to keep them off the field. In the games where our offense has played well (not BC) we have dominated the time of possession game and our defense has killed our opponents drive.
Florida doesn’t care how long you have the ball. They go big and see if you can keep up. They average 29:08 minutes of possession per game. Their longest was 32:20 against LSU and only 25:06 against the Citadel (they scored 10 touchdowns in that game). There have been only 5 games that they have lead in TOP and two of those have bee a difference of under 1 minute.
They don’t drive. Their average length of drive is 2:27, the longest being 8:55. They have only had 4 TD drives of 10 plays or more. 52% of their touchdowns occur in 5 plys or less. 68% of their touchdowns are scored in 3 minutes or less. However, 62% of their TD were on drives of 50+ yards.
How do they achieve this? They average 7.3 yards per play, 6.1 per run and 9.3 per pass. They average 8.23 yards on first down. This puts them in a great position to do as they choose on 2nd down. In the UGA game, the Gators had 15 second down plays and ran the ball about 53% of the time.
We need to hold onto the ball and prevent this from happening and don’t give them a short field with turnovers and penalties.
Land the First Punch:
Look at what happened when BC came out and punched us in the mouth. It took a long time before we recovered. The Gators score early and often and have rarely had to play from behind, meaning they have only been behind for minutes this year. They outscore their opponents 146 to 7 in the first quarter alone. They go on to outscore their opponents 130 to 25, leading to an average score of 25 to 3 at the half. Florida put 56 before Hawaii scored, 27 before Tennessee scored, 35 against UK, 28 against USC….you see a pattern here.
by TrueCubbie on Apr 14, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great stuff.
Maybe Urban Meyer realized that the clock changes last year made it more difficult to come from behind and win. If you score early & often, you shouldn’t ever have to worry about falling behind. Thus, the clock doesn’t hurt your. In fact, once you have a lead, the clock becomes your friend, not your enemy.
Two things really stick out at me about the OPP. ADJ. OFF. RANK numbers.
1. 2006 (47th w/JB) vs 2007 (82nd w/JF)-Granted it was JF’s 1st year, but that is a huge dropoff, and I never expected such a difference. I guess it really does require a new off coor. at least one year to get his system in place. Or is it possible that we didn’t give JB a chance and he was actually better than we thought and maybe JF will bring JB back when he gets the HC job? (sarcasm 101- I really would shoot myself or join the Urban fan club)
2. 2007 (82nd) vs 2008 (15th)-Was one year all it took for JF to finally get his system implemented? Did it take a year for the players to “buy-in”? How much of it was due to CP vs DW? How many starters in 2007’s off returned in 2008? Without doing any research, I think it was a major turnover in the off starters from 07 to 08. So if I am correct, it seems that the caliber of the players starting on off in 08 were of much better quality and more athletic than the players from 07, many of whom were leftovers from the previous regime.
Regardless, just as the dropoff from 2006 to 2007 was huge, the gain from 2007 to 2008 was humongous. Let’s pray you’re right and we become a top 5 offense this year. I am psyched.
Good obeservations, Frank
1. 2006 (47th w/JB) vs 2007 (82nd w/JF)-Granted it was JF’s 1st year, but that is a huge dropoff, and I never expected such a difference.
Important to remember that Fisher came to us late. Most new coaches were at their new positions before Fisher came here.
2. 2007 (82nd) vs 2008 (15th)-Was one year all it took for JF to finally get his system implemented?
In some ways, yes. We’re still not seeing Jimbo’s system in its entirety. We ran a ton of West Virginia stuff.
Did it take a year for the players to "buy-in"?
Yes, and it makes sense that you have to understand first before you buy in. There was a culture change on the offense. Similarly, we will see a culture change on defense when Mickey goes.
How much of it was due to CP vs DW?
Quite a bit, but not in that CP was so much better than DW, but that he was so much better FOR US, stylistically.
How many starters in 2007’s off returned in 2008?
Carr, Parker, Antone, Caz/ Holloway (should count as one), Hudson, and McMahon. New starters: Datko, Furlong/Spurlock, Greenlee/Sanders, and Reed/Easterling in the slot.
So if I am correct, it seems that the caliber of the players starting on off in 08 were of much better quality and more athletic than the players from 07, many of whom were leftovers from the previous regime.
I think the players played more to their ability level in 2008 than in 2007, and we used some young talent to push the older guys.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder...
how DW’s career would have looked to us if he hadn’t spent his first 3 years with JB and Dickey. What if he would have had real coaches to coach him up? I’ve thought about this with the previous QB’s too, namely Chris Rix. Unfortunately, we’ll never know.
you know I have a question about this
the whole new system thing. what are we realy doing new. Its the same formations really. Same plays for the most part with very little change.
the zone read is the same play as the the RB off tackle other than the Qb can keep it.
the bubble is kinda new but FSU always ran a lot of screens and draws.
Maybe Im crazy but FSU ran this off for the last 15yr just a few more reads and checkoffs for the QB to WR. Other than we throw out of shotgun more than run out of it. We ran to keep the Def honest and now we throw for the same reason.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Good stuff.
Though Ponder’s numbers aren’t great, he wasn’t asked to do a whole lot. Jimbo really kept him reigned in (which was a great thing….as he was young and paranoid). I look forward to the quarterback competition between EJ and Ponder. It should bring the best out of both of them. I think we are in a much better situation at the helm then many teams (outside of Texas, OU and UF). It’s what is around him and keeping him on the field, per se, that worries me.
Also, I would be more than happy to help with the project. I am a little confused however. This is for the past season or the future season? I will take whichever game nobody else wants.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
It would be a review of last season (2008)
We will be digging into quarterback success rates.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I will take
the Duke-UVA game. That should help you out some.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
You know it is time to PANIC
when Duke blows you out (yes they are getting progressively…slowly better but its still a sad statement of your program).
Groh simply isn’t a good coach.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Nice breakdown
Hopefully Ponder can find a WR or two to help him out this season.
Drove me crazy to watch some film from other teams and their guys seem to catch just about everything thrown at them. Really helps to make the QB look good.
I’ll be happy to help with the project as well.
I think you will see us hit some big play action shots this year.
The key will be: can Jimbo fix the dropback game
Not screens
Not Bubbles
Not Play action
The dropback game. That’s the key.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 14, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
If we can run the ball the way we think we're gonna be able to...
…the play action should be VERY good for us…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
FSU is better than most think.
Here’s are the major areas that affect a game and how FSU will fare based on talent and depth.
1) Running the ball. – FSU will improve in this area due to the mastery of Trickett’s system and the lineman are growing up physically. Now we have some type of depth on the line in the backups. In 2010 this will be a NC caliber group. The backs will be a NIGHTMARE for opposing teams. We might be a Top FIVE rushing team nationally this year.
2) Stopping the run. – FSU will be better than most think in this area. Are we as talented as is years past, no not NOW. By the end of the year they will be very very stout against the run as the incoming freshman won’t be freshman anymore and will provide depth where needed. White will be a terror. McCray and Mincey will be more dominant than you think along with Stewart. If you think you’re going to run the ball on FSU this year, think again. As far as the LB’s go with Bradham, Watson and Smith starting and Carr and the others providing depth…. do you really think people will run against us?
3) Pass blocking – FSU will be better at this due to more experience overall in the starters and they will be physically stronger in the interiro thus allowing Ponder to step up in the pocket more.
Pass Catching – This is where Dawsey has worked his magic and the corps will be young but they will shock everyone this season. Forston by the end of the year will be just a nightmare to defend because Reed will be opposite of him. We need the slot recievers to step up, notably Goodman. If Wade starts to develop like I heard he is on track to do, and Easterling comes back healthy, the ACC will be a forgone conclusion. The TE’s are also sooooo important. if one steps up and becomes that reliable pass catching threat the offense will be just a nightmare to defend.
Pass Defense: – It all starts upfront and with White commanding double teams, that should really help control teams passing games. The secondary will be much improved over last season,. The two Robinsons are NFL bound and Patrick should continue to uphold the traddition of good CB’s coming from FSU. On the other side I think Parks starts at SS and Margum at the other corner. FSU will be very solid.
Quarterback: This is separate as the QB handles the ball so much in Fisher’s system. Ponder has not gotten the credit he should have gotten last year. The guy is developing on schedule. He is now working on going down field with consistency. He will be better passing simply because the OL will be better as pass blocking. They won’t miss Parker as much as you think and Forston has more upside than Carr ever had. The key to Ponder’s development lies in the TE’s. If we get a reliable pass catching TE to develop then we can contend nationally a year earlier.
Special Teams: We need the punter to get better until Ponder develops his downfield touch as the early games will be field position games. The PK will miss some FGs but that will be early as the early games FSU will win by TD’s rather than FGs anyway. If you’re worried about Miami, don’t be, they’re not ready for prime time, YET.
Coaching: This is the area that will really determine how far we go. We know Fisher has a good offense with talent. We know he can coach. The probelm is defensively where Andrews can’t defend anything more than a pro-style offense. The problem with Mickey is that he coached at his peak when everyone ran a prostyle offense. He doesn’t have the mentality or the pateince to learn new schemes to counter the meyers and Johnson’s of the world today. The Gators have beaten us not because they had this incredible talent, not because their is better than ours but because defensively Andrews and Amato are lost as to how to defend the Power gun option. These two will be the reason we don’t compete for the NC this year, not talent.
All that said, I see the Noles taking the ACC, CRUSHING VT, and winning at least 11-12 games. The only potential losses I see are BYU and UF. We MIGHT be 11-0 walking into the Swamp.
Welcome
First off, welcome to Tomahawk Nation. I try to great every member once they post. How did you head about us? How long did you read before signing up?
You never greeted me...
and I’m still bitter about it. ;)
I visted your site one time and I was hooked. I thought you were really unbiased in your assessment of FSU and the other people that speak on the Noles appear to be more knowledgeable than other forums so far.
In a word, honesty.
See Kool-Aid man above.
…and here I thought I was optimistic.
LMAO....wow is this ironic or what?
Looks like he had the Intensity Red. Personally, I like to go with GatorHater Orange and Blue.
No overly optimistic but name one tieam out there that has a complete team and a great DL to stymie our rushing attack. These are the teams you’re probably concerned about.
Miami has a DL but no offense and the first game is in Doak. The Noles will control the clock.
BYU – Great offensive scheme but they don’t have the DL or the athletes to beat FSU.
GT – They lost thier DL (the strength of that team) and the game is in Doak and they have no passing attack. We should have beaten them last year.
BC- No offense and not enough speed at WR. They lost Brace and Raji, that is a HUGE blow because that was the real reason why FSU lost that game, they couldn’t run the ball between the tackles.
Wake: Lost way too much on defense due to graduation. Replacing Williams, Curry and that CB is just too much for a team with average speed on offense.
NC – Good defense and no wide recievers or RB’s that strike fear. They are at least a year away.
Miami has a DL but no offense and the first game is in Doak. The Noles will control the clock.
Doak’s not much of an advantage anymore. We’re 9-8 in the last 3 seasons against 1A competition in Doak. Miami is very talented and better coached than we are, and they do have an offense. Their problem last year was defense, not offense.
BYU – Great offensive scheme but they don’t have the DL or the athletes to beat FSU.
Never underestimate the impact of changing time zones. BYU plays as a very cohesive unit.
GT – They lost thier DL (the strength of that team) and the game is in Doak and they have no passing attack. We should have beaten them last year.
They kept their best DL in Morgan, and in no way should we have beaten them last year. Over 8 yards per snap with their QB. Our run defense is horrible. If he stays in rather than rolling his own ankle, we lose by 21+
Wake: Lost way too much on defense due to graduation. Replacing Williams, Curry and that CB is just too much for a team with average speed on offense.
Pretty much agree here… except they own us, have won the last 3, and the game is on the road…
NC – Good defense and no wide recievers or RB’s that strike fear. They are at least a year away.
Excellent defense. Return their offensive line and QB. This isn’t video game ball, line play matters… a lot
Further, Clemson has a great defense (were very injured when we played them) as does UF.
On Miami I have to disagree because continuity on offense betweeen the QB and the OC matters a lot. I just don’t think they are ready for prime time.
BYU is a good team but 4.3 versus 4.5 on the outside is still 4.3 versus 4.5. They play well as a team but the team they couldn’t beat if I’m correct is TCU which had sone serious talent on Defense like the Noles had and hardly any offfense.
On GT I used to say the same thing but as this one guy said to me the other day, injuries are part of the game especially in football. You can’t blame a teams performance or non-performance on injury or suspension etc. it’s the coaches job to adjust and the opposing coach job to take advantage.
Regarding NC, the line does mean a lot but you’re assuming NC’s line is wayyyy better than our line I don’t think that’s the case as we will have the best line in the ACC.
On GT I used to say the same thing but as this one guy said to me the other day, injuries are part of the game especially in football. You can’t blame a teams performance or non-performance on injury or suspension etc. it’s the coaches job to adjust and the opposing coach job to take advantage.
Good point, but you definitely can’t take credit for it either. We certainly can’t count on it happening again this year. In fact, you have to assume the worst case scenario which is it doesn’t happen again. What are our chances of stopping or simply slowing them down if it doesn’t happen again?
Regarding NC, the line does mean a lot but you’re assuming NC’s line is wayyyy better than our line I don’t think that’s the case as we will have the best line in the ACC.
I think your fallacy is in comparing their OLine to our OLine. That’s not the relevant match-up. Instead, compare their OLine to our DLine (they will pancake our guys). Our OLine compared to their DLINE… that’s a matchup that gives us trouble. Look at their size and talent. They deploy their guys the right way.
I defer to Nole-ando for my GT comments. Remember, we didn’t hit him, he slipped. That was Tech’s first year in the offense. They will be much better on offense this year.
I’m sorry, I shoud’ve been clearer. If you compare thier offensive line against our defensive line it will be a stalemate as our D-line has practiced against the best in the conference day in and day out. Thier rushing attack is not as sophisicated or effective as ours as they were more of a passing team last year.
We will more than hols our own defensively against NC.
Regarding GT , you’re assuming that GT will see the ball as much as they saw it that first game. They had TOP in part because that NFL line kept us in check for 31/*2 quarters. They won’ty be able to do that this year as they took big hits to that defense and Ponder will be more of a threat to pass downfield.
Defending FSU will be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
GT
You’re forgetting the other half of TOP. Their offense. It will only be better and more efficient. Making it easier for them to hold onto the ball.
Defending FSU will be a nightmare for opposing offenses.
So will defending GT
It wasn’t for NC or Gardner-Webb. It comes down to coaching and MA can’t coach anymore, simple as that. No one stopped FSU if they didn’t have a GREAT DL last year, you didn[‘t have to have one to stop GT last year. They still don’t have a good passing game to complement that option which is why they lost so badly when they needed to win big games. The new QB has to be able to read defenses before you think he’s going to come in and sling the ball.
If it wasn’t for Andrews ineptitude, we would’ve won at least two more games become ACC Champs. And we really haven’t lost anybody of consequence that made that possible except Brown.
I don’t remember when the NC game was played. I do remember that Gardner-Webb game however. Once again, Nesbitt was out due to injury. So, this wasn’t a surprise. What offense can anyone realistically expect to run as well without their starter as it does with it?
As for the Andrews comment, I completely agree. The GT game is a great example of the horrendous game planning we’ve been seeing. Not, to mention the BC and UF games.
Man somebody pass me a cup!
This is the post optimistic thread I’ve seen on TN.
I like what you’ve got going here with the exception of a couple of things yet to be proven on the field:
Stopping the run. Our offense ran all over our defense during spring practice. We got gashed by BC, GT, and UF last year. I’m keeping my expectations fairly low here until proven otherwise.
Pass blocking. I didn’t see much difference between WF and WI when it came to pass protection.
Pass Catching. Same here too. Until our receivers can prove that they can catch what they should I’m not impressed.
well the good thing to look at here is
last spring the Def tore the Off apart and look how the Off turned out. Most should be happy because we had the youngest and one of the better really. Maybe (prob not) but maybe our Def will be ok. Most the teams we play are more pro style. thats a good thing.
Also look at what most the teams lost this year. BC, UNC, lost a lot GT and NCST not so much. I really think we need to keep an eye on NCST they might suprise some people next year.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
The backs will be a NIGHTMARE for opposing teams. We might be a Top FIVE rushing team nationally this year.
Really like the run game— question the backs. TY isn’t a good back right now and won’t be unless he gets his diabetes under control. Pressley likely won’t do anything at FSU b/c the knee surgery (how many backs come back from that and perform— not many).
By the end of the year they will be very very stout against the run as the incoming freshman won’t be freshman anymore and will provide depth where needed. White will be a terror. McCray and Mincey will be more dominant than you think along with Stewart. If you think you’re going to run the ball on FSU this year, think again. As far as the LB’s go with Bradham, Watson and Smith starting and Carr and the others providing depth…. do you really think people will run against us?
We are such a mess here… very unlikely that any of this happens. I think people will run ALL OVER us, just as they did last year, just as our offense has done in practice. This is a group relying entirely too much on potential— potential that is unlikely to develop, and extremely unlikely to develop all at once.
Pass Defense: – It all starts upfront and with White commanding double teams, that should really help control teams passing games. The secondary will be much improved over last season,. The two Robinsons are NFL bound and Patrick should continue to uphold the traddition of good CB’s coming from FSU. On the other side I think Parks starts at SS and Margum at the other corner. FSU will be very solid.
White has not shown he is good enough to demand a double team. He’s all hype at this point. Only one player from this secondary will go to the NFL— Patrick Robinson. Jamie won’t be going to the nfl. No shot. He’s a capable free safety. Mangum should go to the crematory to save other teams the trouble of torching him. Mangum is not in the picture at corner.
IF we had our secondary worry about the pass, rather than trying to fix what Amato and Andrews have screwed up— and help in the run game, then I would agree, but our run defense is just garbage, and the secondary is probably asked to do too much, compromising them in both areas.
If you’re worried about Miami, don’t be, they’re not ready for prime time, YET.
This seems like something we would get mad at a sportswriter for saying without backing it up, ya know?
I think we are a long way off on talent still. I doubt any of our guys would start for UF. Andrews kills us, sure, but there is still a talent gap. Our coaches are just stretched to thin since we have three guys who don’t do anything. We have 7 trying to the work of 11 while UF has 11 busting their butts.
We have the potential to lose in 11 of our 12 games. Not saying we will, but the potential is easily there.
Mostly agree with exceptions noted below:
Ty Jones – I think he’s a decent back right now, but he does need to take care of his diabetes and his new affliction called fumbleitis. I read somewhere (AC?) that he appears to have the diabetes issue under control now. The fumbleitis flare-ups may be a different story.
D line – we are average in this area unless we have one or two players step up and play to their potential. Good teams will run all over us, but for the most part, we have enough talent to stop mediocre teams.
Secondary – agreed. Patrick Robinson is our most talented player. He has NFL potential, but I think he may be a second day guy unless he has a great year. JRob hasn’t shown us anything in a game yet. Mangum sucks.
Talent – totally agree. For all the knocks on Bowden, he’s right that we just don’t have the game-changers we once had. So here’s a suggestion BB: stop complaining about it and go out and get us some gamebreakers!!!
We could lose 6-8 games, but not 11. Our offense is good enough now to get us 7-9 wins.
I meant that 11 of the 12 games are not locked.
We have the potential to lose any of those 11. Heck, the Jax State game is not a 100% win, it’s probably 98.5%
by Bud Elliott on Apr 15, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
The running game is the least of my worries. Noles are set at RB with Jones, Pressely and Sims along with Thomas. You’re assuming that they won’t get better with the summer practices plus they have another good freshman coming.
The DL is in transition but if your look at the rotation we will be pretty good there with Mincey, Stewart, Thacker and McCray (who will be a monster this season). Don’t let spring fool you, they went up against the best line in the ACC. In the spring game who showed up and who didn’t? The defense will be solid.
You’re sleep on J-Rob. That was his first year playing FS and played better than Williams and Rolle ever did. Now his going into his second year, watch what he does. He has the protoype FS body and CB skills. Again, the coaching by Andrews leaves a lot to be desired especially in the secondary. You need more than talent.
As far as the talent gap in UF’s favor right now, UF doesn’t win by talent they win by scheming. The only true talent on that team is Harvin and maybe Spikes. They are extremely well coached and disciplined in their execution. They have the perfect players for thier system. They don’t have a lights out defense, they have a ball controlling offense that people can’t stop. OK would’ve won that game if the Gators did keep the ball away from them for most of the second half. We have talent, we don;’t have the coaching right now but that will change when Andrews and Amato are fired.
People said the same thing last year and i was the only one on the past forum I was on to predict they would win 10 games. I was one off.
The Noles will win at the very least 10 and take the ACC.
As far as the talent gap in UF’s favor right now, UF doesn’t win by talent they win by scheming. The only true talent on that team is Harvin and maybe Spikes.
Nonsense. UF has out-recruited everyone in the nation except for USC over the last four years.
Ding-ding-ding! We have a winner!
Tell him what he’s won Bob.
Actually, I would argue that UF has out-recruited USC. Especially when you consider that UF is competing with powerhouse programs like UGA, LSU, UM, & FSU. Not to mention up-and-coming USF & UCF and just about every other football program in the East that raids the state of Florida.
Noles are set at RB with Jones, Pressely and Sims along with Thomas. You’re assuming that they won’t get better with the summer practices plus they have another good freshman coming.
This is one of the biggest misnomers I hear. Jones isn’t any good currently. He’s on the team. That’s pretty much it. You are assuming that a 19 year-old kid will all of sudden wake up and take care of his diabetes… I assert that he will not.
Pressley… please name me other backs who have done well in their first year back from ACL surgery.
The DL is in transition but if your look at the rotation we will be pretty good there with Mincey, Stewart, Thacker and McCray (who will be a monster this season). Don’t let spring fool you, they went up against the best line in the ACC. In the spring game who showed up and who didn’t? The defense will be solid.
Stewart and Thacker aren’t any good. At all. They would both be cut as useless 5th year seniors from UF or Miami. Mincey hasn’t shown anything and isn’t even on the first team. I love Moses McCray.
Please read my previous explanation on the spring game(above)… it might open some eyes.
You’re sleep on J-Rob. That was his first year playing FS and played better than Williams and Rolle ever did. Now his going into his second year, watch what he does. He has the protoype FS body and CB skills. Again, the coaching by Andrews leaves a lot to be desired especially in the secondary. You need more than talent.
I like JRob a lot, but to say he has NFL potential at this point, after he couldn’t beat out Darius McClure is again, sort of questionable. We’re in agreement on Andrews.
As far as the talent gap in UF’s favor right now, UF doesn’t win by talent they win by scheming. The only true talent on that team is Harvin and maybe Spikes. They are extremely well coached and disciplined in their execution. They have the perfect players for thier system. They don’t have a lights out defense, they have a ball controlling offense that people can’t stop. OK would’ve won that game if the Gators did keep the ball away from them for most of the second half. We have talent, we don;’t have the coaching right now but that will change when Andrews and Amato are fired.
The Gators are better than us at every position. Period. You can make arguments for PRob being their 2nd best corner, or Hudson battling Pouncey for a guard spot, but it’s sad when we’re having to argue to even find a place for our 2 best guys.
People said the same thing last year and i was the only one on the past forum I was on to predict they would win 10 games. I was one off.
How many losses did you predict? predicting 10 wins is easy, because if we win 10 in the regular season, you can claim you called it, or if we go 9-4 and win the bowl game, you can say you called it.
What will our record be in our 12 games? Not the ACC Championship, not the bowl game. Will we be 10-2? 7-5? 8-4? 9-3? 11-1? I’m curious as to what you expect.
Schedule
Miami – good opening day test. Canes just not experienced enough to walk into Doak with a new QB, OC and shaky secondary to beat the Noles. Win.
Jacksonville State – next. Win.
BYU – Scary team offensively. Great schemes and they have talent BUT they are talented for the Mountain West not the ACC. I think they hang early but the speed and physicality of FSU will just be too much over four quarters. The offense will give Mickey trouble so points will be scored against us. Win.
USF – Good team to get us ready for the meat of the schedule. They will be fired up of course but FSU is on another level this year. The Noles may be a NC caliber team this year, USF isn’t. Win.
BC – Tough game as usual butthe road team has won the last four times. Additionally, BC is not the terror at DT they were last year so they can be ran on a little eaiser. They will have to play eight this year to stop us in the run game which opens them up downfield for an improved Ponder. Win.
GT – Lost a lot of defensive talent while the Noles have re-loaded. That’s the difference as both offense can score. The game is also in Doak. Win.
NC – This game looks tough on paper until you look closely. They have no running game, they lost all of thier WR’s and the defense is good but not THAT good. The Noles are a complete team and its takes more than just defense or offense to beat them this year. Look for a medium scoring game and the Noles winning by seven.
NC State – Tough game as Obrein always has his team ready to go but they just don’t have the talent. Win.
Clemson: Another interesting game. The probelm for Clemson is that while they have good talent and will have improved some from last year, the Noles improved more, especially on offense. Look for Clemson to score (and take the lead) but then our running game starts to pay dividends in the fourth. Win.
Wake: This is the year that Wake loses badly to FSU. They lost way too much defensively and Ponder is a year older and the defense will be very steady by the time this game rolls around. Win.
Maryland: I like Maryland but not just in this game. Look for FSU’s run game to take them apart. Win.
UF: Two words for why we lose this game: Mickey Andrews. We will score but Mickey’s defense will give up forty AGAIN. Loss.
ACC Championship: I tjhink VT is the best in that division and while talented, they don’t have enough of a downfield vertical threat for FSU. Win.
This is what gets fans into trouble
You can’t accurately project a season using Win/Loss
Try to project a % chance that FSU will win each game.
Also…
The Noles may be a NC caliber team this year
Definitely not. We have a greater chance of missing a bowl than making the Natl Championship. (6-6, 5-6 against D1)
might as well get used to his predictions FSUn
and if you don’t agree with them, he’ll talk down to you and state that you’re not on his “level”
Well we don't do that here.
People who reason out their assertions typically stick around, those who do not typically don’t.
For instance, in regard to UNC
and the defense is good but not THAT good.
Actually, they were a top 10 defense in the Nation and return 9 or 10 starters.
I have always stated that numbers can be twisted. in your opinion, did they really play like a top Ten defense last year? I mean the numbers say yes but the games I saw they were outscoring people mostly. Thier defense didn’t impress me at all which is why I think VT is still the class of that division.
The Noles were a Top 15 offense statisically but some argue it was built on the backs of inferiror opponents. That could apply to NC’s defense just as easily.
In sake of full disclosure, I only saw five games up here so you may have seen more of them being in the South.
in your opinion, did they really play like a top Ten defense last year? I mean the numbers say yes but the games I saw they were outscoring people mostly. Thier defense didn’t impress me at all which is why I think VT is still the class of that division.
Yes, they really did. Thinking that VT is the class of that division doesn’t mean that UNC didn’t play great defense. They are a lot more talented on defense than the ‘Noles and much better coached. Additionally, it’s a Thursday night road game.
Even if UNC has a great defense you still have to score points and thier defense isn’t the Ravens of 2001. It’s a good defense that is well coached. If you don’t have Wrs and no serious backs then I don’t see how you score points. A good QB can only do so much.
BC destroyed our defense last year with a very good OLine, no backs, no wideouts, and an average QB... in our house, at night, in our homecoming game.
This UNC offense, in NorthCarolina will be better than BC was in our stadium. Disagree?
I agree to that point but do you think that NC’s defense this year will be equal to BC’s last year? I don’t don’t as Brace and Raji were basically grown men playing against freshmen and it showed!
Remember Marvin Austin
Also, don’t foget that Butch Davis is roaming the sidelines. I hear he actually coaches their defense. Seriously though, because of Davis, you know that the defense is going to be the crown jewel of that team. I don’t know alot about NC’s line, but I do know they have Austin and he was a man-child before he even set foot on campus.
Marvin Austin IMO has underachieved. This is why i form my own analysis outside of all these sportswriters. Some have a straight anti-Nole basis and don’t report the quality of talent on hand. A lot of predictions for this year are based on last year’s record and that’s why so many missed the boat on FSU’s 9-4 season.
I need injury reports and I can take it from there. I go by what’s in front of me regarding each and every team and so far all these teams you’re talking that can beat the Noles etc are so fundamentally flawed i just can’t seethem doing so except UF, maybe Clemson and/or BYU. The rest just aren’t complete enough and NC defense from what I saw is good but not great. Good aint going to cut it this year against a serious offense like FSU’s, trust me when I say it’s a serious offense, IT A SERIOUS OFFENSE.
You're really going to judge him as a freshman?
I wouldn’t call the reporting here straight anti-nole not reporting on quality. Unlike 99% of sites out there, these guys actually have numbers to support the analysis. You were right when you said earlier that numbers from the preceeding year are not indicative of what will happen the next. However, numbers are very important in revealing trends when they come from successive preceeding years, which is what’s been used throughout this site.
I’m not speaking of this site, i mean other sites that cover college football. I think this site is really objective in its reporting regarding potential trouble spots which is good. But those trouble spots are only trouble spots if they remain unaddressed in the summer.
Haggins has never put out a sorry DL and he won;t this year either because he does have talent to work with. He doesn’t have A+ talent but that what coaching is all about, getting every ounce of effort from your kids and coaching them up.
Dawsey has worked wonders with the WRs and he will do so again because he has even more talent to work with.
The problem area is the secondary, where MA has cease to coach. We have talent in the Rob brothers but Parks and Allen need to be coached even if they have great talent and the same goes for Reid. This is where you can’t rely on numbers because you don’t know who is going to start at SS or the other CB.
That’s why numbers are a good start but they are not the end all or be all of football.
The Noles were a Top 15 offense statisically but some argue it was built on the backs of inferiror opponents. That could apply to NC’s defense just as easily.
Nope. the top 15 ranking only takes into account games against 1A competition, so it does not factor in the two games against 1-AA teams.
It also doesn’t apply to UNC’s defense, because the metrics don’t factor in 1-AA teams (as you point out, doing so could skew the numbers).
Can we change this guy's name to TheChi-ba
as in the sweet cheeba… he must have access to some good stuff this afternoon!
I predicted we would ten games last year and i was one off. The reason why I predict 11 or 12 is because all the teams we play are in worse shape than us. We are a running football team that morph inrto a play-action team. If the teams we play do not have great DL’s, they will not beat us except UF (they will because of Andrew’s inability to concot a gameplan to slow them down).
Look, I'm there with you man.
I would LOVE to see 11 wins, but I just don’t think we have the talent or work ethic (players & staff) right now. Putting on my Nostradamus cape, I see between 7 to 10 wins depending on how the defense comes around and whether or not we get significant contribution from some of our talented incoming freshmen.
lol
Pulling numbers out of your butt as a projected % chance of winning a game still doesn’t make any sense to me.
"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton
Agreed.
Any prediction, whether based on wins/losses, percentages, horoscopes, and/or fortune cookies is still someone’s best guess. Although fun, there is no meaningful value of some fan’s speculation as to how their team will perform on the field.
Project how much you think the 'Noles will win or lose by, and then take that corresponding spread and convert it to a percentage.
I’m sure you agree that we don’t have a 100% chance of winning against, say, USF. Will we be favored? Yes. We won’t be favored by 35 or even 17
by Bud Elliott on Apr 15, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I tink you are overestimating:
Our defense against GT and its ability to stop GT enough for us to outscore them. They will probably be able to hold onto the ball for time of possession advantage.. if they take the lead we are in bad shape then right? Trying to outscore a team that might take the lead on us who churns the clock?. (Theres also another issue with tring to outscore teams when we are primarily a rushing team in the last paragraph).
Our ability to use the running game to make a come from behind at Clemson… Perhaps if the game is really close and there is lots of time left, but seems to me a rule of thumb is that when you are behind in the 4th you need to be able to gain some yardage quickly without burning much of the clock.
In response to your earlier post but going along with this… I expect our pass coverage to be very suspect and do not trust White to play at the same level as Brown, which is needed in order for us to even claim we can defend the pass against any decent team, IMO. P.Robinson is good, J.Robinson somehow did well in the spring game but what about his past performace to date?? So-so IMO. Mangum? PHHHFFTTT.
I don’t think we can outscore teams very easily when we have to rely on our running game (time consuming) and then have to worry about the other team turning in big plays due to our lack of coverage. In essense, we will take more time to score than the other teams, so if we are behind and have to outscore them… goodnight sweetheart. I think we have a shot of winning many games because of our Offense, but the chances of us being able to score early and churn the clock isn’t so great that the likelihood of winning 10 games is realistic.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Doak isn't special.....
While it used to be, the ticket sales have greatly decreased (Thanks Bobby) and the record at home just isn’t anything special.
We are 12-8 in the last 3 years at Doak with 3 of those wins coming from FCS teams. So we are really 9-8 in the last three years. You decide if it still helps us “win.”
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Sorry this is reaction to
The game is also in Doak. Win.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Excellent point
And with the subtraction of more season ticket holders this year, it’ll be even more empty.
"May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't." - General George S. Patton
Word has it that...
Ann Bowden’s friends in the knitting club had trouble navigating through the seats to get to their seats. So… careful with your language when this was CLEARLY in the best interest of all of the fans.
Doak isn't so special
That’s because we were getting used to the new coaches and we all know how bad JB was in that last year so that’s not a fair charge to level. Anytime there is a change in staffs to the point FSU had with no OL be happy we went 7-6.
Can you honestly say that if Fisher would have taken over totally with a new DC we would’ve lost to BC at home?
well Im on your side Chi
but I think FSUn has a point to. I think we can win all the games you talk about but there are a few more things here.
Miami has talant but can they use it. 80% I think we win
Jst has a QB and he can run 95% I think we win
BYU slow QB but can throw they also might have a good Def 70% I think we win
USF doing down hill from a few years ago 90% we win
BC done game over for them, in 2 years duke will beat them every year. 95% win
GT its going to come down to the wire and we might have to flip a coin again. 50%
UNC who knew what they have in the wings. they prob will be ok and could give is some trouble75% win
NCST Im thinking this will be a tough game too because there QB is going places 65% win
clempson The are like Miami has talant but can they use it (more a prostyle team) 65% win
Maryland same as last year 98% win
UF same as last year 20% win
Thats what I thnk but Im just a fan thats all.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Well I'm on your side
NC has NO Wrs. None. Whose going to catch the ball once we shut down the run?
GT lost too much on defense. If they beat us only because Simms fumbled, at thier place WITH that pro caliber DL, just think what’s going to happen with them not having that and our offense a year older….FSU win.
Why are we assuming we shut down UNC's run? They are a good run team with a veteran and talented line that will blow our defensive front away.
GT lost too much on defense. If they beat us only because Simms fumbled, at thier place WITH that pro caliber DL, just think what’s going to happen with them not having that and our offense a year older….FSU win.
Might want to read this… http://www.tomahawknation.com/2008/11/2/651783/jimbo-s-unit-surprises-mic
31 Points, 0 Turnovers, & 321 yards on 39 Plays.
8.2 yards per play. Up until GT’s QB left the game, that’s what they had done. 8.2 yards per play. I don’t need to say anything more. 8.2 yards per play. Mickey’s unit was ill-prepared. 8.2 yards per play. They played like garbage. 8.2 yards per play.
GT’s offense is only getting better.
and now they have a Qb that is use to running that Offense
Hes faster and has ran the offense for 3 years in his high school. Thats not good
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
If our defense is so bad then how did the defense shut down the offense in the spring game?
You’re assuming that the players replacing the others just will fall on thier faces and I think the spring game proved otherwise.
Fisher ran mostly pro-style in the spring game
perhaps he was trying to show the defensive recruits that we are good.
To expand on this
1. Fisher is paranoid beyond belief and has toned down his playcalling in spring games before. Please look at the entire body of evidence from spring, which is overwhelmingly in favor of the offense. I’ve written 3 or 4 articles on this.
2. The recruits at the spring game were almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ball. Is it in Fisher’s best interest to show up the defense? No, he wants recruits to think our defense is fun to play in. He called plays he knew Mickey’s boys could stop. It just got a lot worse because of the sloppiness of the offense. Even crisp though, the defense would have won on that rigged stage.
btw, I love the fact that Fisher is paranoid.
especially in wake of the Belichek era.
Saban is part of the Belichek cheating network.
Saban worked under Belichek as an assistant when Belichek was the HC of the Cleveland Browns.
let’s say for the sake of argument you’re correct and throw out the results….. You’re still assuming that GT can stop us with thier defense which is in disarray on the DL which is the ONLY thig that slows down ourr offense. That game will be like OK and UF, GT won’t see the ball in the fourth quarter.
It's not like the program is in shambles
So I wouldn’t say the DL is in disarray. It’s not going to fall off a cliff. I would also say it’s probably not a fluke that they had that kind of DL. The coaches know what they’re doing.
So their coaches know what they’re doing and Haggins doesn’t?
Our DL won’t dominating, it’sll just be good.
FSU fans are spoiled. But I understand, we have different standards than other programs and the fans should hold the coaches to the highest standard.
I didn't say anything about our DL
In fact I think Haggins is one of the best DL coaches and have an immense amount of respect for him. I do have a problem with our planning however. I really don’t have a problem with our DL at all. It’s the unit as a whole.
I agree with you on that point. But if you look at the schedule there aren’t a lot of teams that have the talent and scheme in combination to really beat us this year except UF, BC and or Clemson.
And VT, and GT, and maybe even BYU...
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Let’s look at those teams:
GT – No vertical downfield consistency, no DL to handle our run game, decent back seven.
BYU – Great team concept and great passing scheme but lack the foot speed to exploit the secondary, Tackles not atheletic enough to stymie our pass rush and they have only one standout player in thier DE.
VT – I think VT is the class of that division but we can’t really say they will get there but they look aboput as strong as last year buttheir WR’s have grown up a little bit. They will go as far as Taylor’s ability to pass takes them.
In sum, I’m not scared of either team at all.
their offense gets better but teams will get better at defending it...
this is not the hardest offense to stop.. teams just dont see it…look at LSU…
That’s what i’ve been saying! Gardner Webb almost beat them! It’s Andrews, he and Simms lost the GT game, he alone cost us BC (with Watson’s stupid penalty), I mean the guy needs to go.
Ok, you're starting to lose me
You think our defense played great, stopping GT. But, you say Andrews is the reason we lost? I agree with the ladder. I ask because I’m starting to think we see eye to eye and just don’t realize it.
Walk-ons that are fast as long as Jenije is covering them.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I appreciate what you are saying Chi, and don't think you are totally wrong
but I don’t think other teams will just stay idle personell wise after, no doubt, losing a good DL… but we lost T.Carter and E.Brown and Nicholson and (to some extent) M.Rolle. Wouldn’t you consider that a push as far as one outscoring another?
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
The only ones we will truly miss is Carter and Brown but P-rob is wayyyyy better than Carter and bigger. Brown will be repalced by White who is bigger, faster and now has more experience.
FSU doesn’t re-build on defense, they re-load. It’s the coaching that has let us down on defense, not talent.
Brown was considered an elite prospect entering last year
Markus White can’t hold his jock and has shown nothing yet.
We will also miss Myron a lot because we have nobody at rover.
I was listening to Warchant the other day (Iknow, I know) but Schofel did say something of note, the defense you see now won’t be the defense you see in the fall. This is the time for experiementation so not everything you call is going to work nor the personnel groups you put together. Remember Watson is a big part of that defense and he didn’t play.
I think what MA is doing is seeing who can play what and getting his depth chart ready for the fall.
I’m not ever worried about the defense, its always been good enough to give us seven wins at least and it’ll do so again.
The key to the season is Ponder’s ability to go down field, if he blossoms this year, 12-0. I don’t if he’ll be lights out which is why I say 10 games at the very least and the ACC. If I KNEW he was going to blossom like McCoy at Texas a year early I’d be the first to say 12-1 at least. Bit right now, I just don’t know how far he will take us.
This is what is going to bring our defene to mediocrity
I’m not ever worried about the defense, its always been good enough to give us seven wins at least and it’ll do so again.
That kind of attitude lives on past accomplishments and ignores present realities.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
You act as though the DL is in the same shape as the OL before Trickett got here and that’s not the case at all. Lets’ look at the present realities then shall we:
DL: We have a rotation of Stewart, Thacker, McCray, Mincey, Dummbar, with the two freshman coming in. Stewart and McCray will blossom this year as will Mincey. They will have a solid rotation especially with McDaneil because he’s ahead of the curve where freshman DT usually are. White is set at one end and McNeil at the other. Both played last season and are progressing during the spring. I’m more than comfortable with our line.
LB: Next, we may have the best corps in the country top to bottom.
CB: The only probelm is the other corner which you can scheme for. The SS will be manned by Parks. There is talent but not as much experience at the other corner.
I never specifically mentioned DL, so I don't know how you got that, the biggest beef I have is at the Secondary
Our defense has slid considerably, anybody that has been watching FSU football since the 90’s should see that we have not adapted to the spread and teams like FU or almost anyone besides Pro Style gives us fits.
The D was getting trashed this spring with only Watson and Thacker out to my knowledge.
Dunbar has had a back injury that we dont know if he can recover from, Thacker is only as good as the depth he can provide, Stewart is more promising, McCray will probably be great, Mincey is promising.
At linebacker we have loads of talent but there is no denying how they performed during the spring. Watson will help, but how much? THE BEST CORPS IN THE COUNTRY? Seriously…. perhaps talent wise if we could develop it but I will end this arguement right now and walk away if you seriously think we have the best LB corps in the country.
P-rob alone cannot provide us with the talent we need in the backfield, and all others are either inconsistent or completely unproven. PARKS is unproven.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Ok then I address the LBs first, they are deep, fast and expereinced due to last year’s suspensions (which is a blessing in diguise). If you look at that depth chart all except Gresham are interchangable. All are fast. There will be NO let down whatsoever regarding the LB corps. Name another team with our depth and talent. I think we have one of the best if not the best inthe country seriously.
The secondary suffers from more scheming than talent. There are many teams that would kill for our talent in the secondary but HAVE better secondaries that played better coverage. Why? The coaching and adjustments during the game. Again, you need more than talent. We have Allen over at the other that can run 4.4, Why is this guy not starting? Because he’s not coached properly. He has talent because until they get a good DB coach he will suffer.
You’ll eat your words regarding White. We don’t need him to be dominating just good as mcNeil will be on the left side and we’ll be ok.
The key is getting rid of Andrews.
So the (hopeful) conclusion of this, as you state in your final sentence, is that...
…the key [to winning 11 to 12 games this season] is getting rid of Andrews.
- heads turn -
- no one breaks the silence -
You’ve been doing a lot of writing, TheChi. Is that your final answer?
Those will be the tastiest words I've ever eaten no doubt if its true.
I have a feeling we agree and don’t understand each other premises … besides the LB’s.
I just want to point out that you said we could scheme for our weaknesses opposite of P-rob, but we don’t have good coaching or adjustments in the secondary.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I might carefully add, and to clarify my comment...
…that unfortunately Mickey Andrews et all will be coaching in 2009.
I'm not sure how much "coaching" will be going on...
But he will be there…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Well as much as Andrews knows how to do in his way. Which isn’t that much, it doesn’t take a coaching clinic to tell you drop the OLB a few extra to help the DB on shorter throws and play zone behind it (as UF does). That’s basic common sense, MA just does a very poor job of disguising his coverages. Deception is half the battle in defending pass plays.
We don't scheme our way out of weaknesses in the secondary without a completely dominating DE remember.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Why?
Look at them, that is just a frightening amount of talent to have. The way Amato has coached them and the way MA has used them is atrocious.
You're contradicting yourself
Saying their the best in the country…but their not coached or used right. So all you’re really saying is they’re the most talented. They might be, it’s hard to say. Afterall, your talents have to be used, in order to be seen and judged upon. There’s a big difference between being the most talented and the best. They have to be coached and used right too.
WE have physically the best group in the country, they don’t play that way because MA doesn’t use them right. Just because you don’t know how to properly drive a Ferrari doesn’t mean its not a Ferrari.
Apples and Oranges
In a ferrari you have a known quality. It’s been proven over the years. On the other hand, we have a very talented corps. But, it remains to be seen and proven if they are the best.
According to who? I don’t need a sportswriter to tell me Ponder isn’t the best QB and that he needs to develop a down filed game, that we have a problem at the other corner or that P-rob is a good CB. I can see that in comparison to other teams myself.
I KNOW the Noles have a Top five LB corps.
this isn't even logic
Are any of our backers considered legit NFL prospects at this point? No. Have they played well or proven anything? Watson some, but the rest? No.
No way White becomes better than brown, and how does White have more experience?
P-rob may be better but theres a pretty large hole opposite of him don’t you think?
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
White played a lot last year. People were looking at Brown before this year and was saing quietly he was an underachiever. In Odell we trust.
There is a hole opposite of Rob but you can scheme for that with a fast weak side LB dropping a little deeper, chips at the line etc.
True about Brown, I was wondering the same thing last year.
Scheme? With our current coaches? We need players who can “do”… you know… “playmakers” who are good without coaching. Ones with intensity and can gets “intercepts.”
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I’m not saying FSU’s defense will be lights out, i’m saying it will be soild and a lot better than what you think it will be.
I think our problem last year was that we had a bunch of play makers who couldn't "do" because:
A) They didn’t know or understand their assignment
B) They all tried to be the hero and make the big play
C) Our system was inflexible and adjustments were few and far between.
We have the talent and the athletes. But without a system, coaching and them buying to said system, you have 11 really talented guys on the field who are not working as a unit. That kind of system or lack there of will get you into serious trouble at the elite level of college football at which we play.
I am excited about the defense, but it is currently unproven. I think there have been too much turnover too many injuries to be able to accurately assess what this team will look like come opening day. We have the talent, we have the skill players (at most positions) but will all of those tools/skills be applied effectively? That is when you get into the discussion of what kind of coach MA is….and as you all know, my niche is basketball and stats/number crunching…so I defer to you guys, the experts for opinions on the coaching staff.
Tha’t all i’ve been saying, the talent is there and has always been there. We play enough teams that run the type of offense that our defense can easily handle. The ones that don’t are UF, GT, Clemson. And one of those three we will definitely beat (GT because they lack the DL to stop us) which still gives us 10-11 games overall that we win.
I give up with the GT comments
You’re forgetting they have an offense that we can’t stop right now. You’re running around in circles and I’m tired of it.
You have to admire the blinders
I am watching in awe. I just keep telling myself that this is Tomahawk Nation, and dissension is not only welcome, but encouraged. Then I have keep from gouging my eyes out when I don’t see anything even remotely close to evidence. Numbers arent only to be used when convenient, but hey…I’m crazy.
Here’s my numbers: GT 31 FSU 28. doesn’t look like a blowout to me.
so tell me again how they stopped us because I don’t see it.
8.2 yards per play.
Can’t always look at a final score.
Kill a fly with an axe - Mickey Andrews, his 1998 playbook
Just the facts (and some commentary):
Florida State had 11 possessions during the game. 5 of them went for scores, three touchdowns and 2 field goals.
The first drive of the game was outstanding, chewing up 6:23 in possession and going for 68 yards. I was at the game and this was promising.
GTech immediately answered with a FG.
Our next drive started from the GTech 33 yard line…we covered a whopping 22 yards and kicked a field goal. Georgia Tech then scored three unanswered touchdowns. I guess they stopped us then.
The subsequent drives resulted in a Punt (8 yard drive) and then an interception after a two play three yard drive. We then scored on our next two possessions TD and FG. (Our last two possessions in the half)
A very respectable first half. We held the ball for 15:37.
In the third quarter we had two possessions for a total of 24 yards that resulted in a punt and a fumble. I guess they stopped us then.
The fourth quarter was a different story. Our first possession was a punt after a 6 play 7 yard drive and then we had the long drive for the touchdown and then the drive for the win with the fumble. I guess they stopped us then.
On our scoring drives, we averaged 56.8 yards per drive and 7 yards per drive, which is approximately 8.11 yards per play on our scoring drives. This is somewhat inflated by the 8 play 70 yard drive and a 7 play 56 yard drive.
On the non scoring drives, we averaged 5 plays per drive and 16 yards per possession or 3.2 yards per play.
For the game we averaged 5.4 yards per rush, which admittedly is excellent, but GTech averaged 6.4.
We averaged 11.2 yards per completion and 6.5 per attempt. Looks nice. GTech averaged 13.8 per completion and 9.2 per attempt.
We scored 0.43 points per play and 2.5 points per possession. GTech scored 0.56 points per play and 2.8 points per possession.
Aside for the first and last drive, our longest drive was only 3:28. 44% of our drives were 5 plays or less. 66% were 6 plays or less.
With the exception of a couple of big plays…our offense really didn’t do anything. I recognize that big plays are a part of the game, but you live and die by the big game.
So did they entirely shut us down? No. We did put up almost 400 yards of offense. But…they did shut us down when it mattered and got the much deserved turn over. The FS team on the last two drives was a completely different team than the one that played the rest of the game. I was there, it was clear that our offense looked flat for almost the entire game. Almost 50% of our possession time was for nothing. You might say we did a good job in the field possession game: GTech’s average starting field possession was their own 36. In the first quarter it was their 46, their 43 in the second and then and only then did we win the field possession battle in the second half. They started at their 26 and 30 respectively in the 3rd and 4th quarter. We might have won the second half, but GTech did whatever they wanted in the first half. When their QB went down, it was a different game. Yes, injuries are a part of the game and teams need to overcome adversity, but we didn’t have an answer.
So I agree TheChi, it wasn’t entirely a blow out. But the game was no where near as close as the final score made it seem.
Go to FSUn or TC for the stats
but how many drives in a row did GT go without being stopped (read:we hurt their QB)
To say we win because their defense isnt up to par is to completely neglect why we truly lost that game. Dont blame the kid who almost got us a victory we didnt earn.
That offense shredded us last year.
This is another example
of how encouraged I am by people’s rational thought on this board.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Despite what happen 59 minutes prior in that game, if Simms doesn’t fumble we win. You can’t blame the injury to GT and so forth because injuries are a part of the game. You’re not giving fisher and Ponder credit for hanging in there when they could have given up. As Miami has always taught us, PLAY SIXTY MINUTES OR YOU LOSE.
No, their QB hurt himself
Why do I feel like there’s an echo in here?
Or put another way
We let them score enough to just lose.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Georgia Tech Drives:
Georgia Tech had 12 “drives” against us last year, one of which occurred after our final fumble, so they really had 11. They scored on 5 of the 11 drives.
They scored on their first 4 drives. Their 5th drive they held on to the ball for about 5 and half minutes and then punted, pinning us at our own 17. Their 6th drive was the end of the first half when the got the ball back with 40 seconds in the half at their own21.
They scored on the opening drive of the second half. After that, they didn’t score, with their drives ending with a fumble, punt, punt and interception.
They absolutely had their way with us in the first half. I was at the game and it was painful. But they only had the ball for 26:47 in that game.
Miami – good opening day test. Canes just not experienced enough to walk into Doak with a new QB, OC and shaky secondary to beat the Noles. Win.
As a non-partisan fan, this game intrigues me greatly. Which program’s recruiting efforts pay off first? Which team uses their offensive playmakers more effectively? Which team’s defense looks like it did in the 90’s? Must see TV for a college football fan.
Interesting questions.
Especially the recruiting. I always wonder which recruits are ready to start and star from Day 1 and of those recruits, how many went somewhere that allows them to play as true freshmen.
Anyone think one of the recruits in the incoming class sees significant playing time on anything other than special teams in the Miami game?
Miami has the upper hand in recruits but
Dont they run a more pro-style Offense. This only works to help us I think. They will not be readly for Jimbo and MA should be able to hold them off. As most game next year we dont have a kicker to win them so we will just have to out score them.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
McAllister & McDaniel
will see some playing time as will Reid & Downs if they qualify. I’m not saying they’ll be starting, but I would be surprised if they don’t play. Our defense has no quality depth right now. Plus, MA knows his time is running out and he has nothing to gain by redshirting as in years past.
I think Lonnie Pryor will play a lot from day one. Kid provides a little different look than your other backs.
Haha!
Don’t tell that to FSUn.
Personally, I thought the kid looked good on tape. I realize he played in 4A which isn’t powerhouse, but it isn’t exactly powder-puff either.
I don't think he can do it because
he’s not quick. He’s decently fast for his size, but he needs a running start. We ask our backs to be slow then really fast. Slide, find the hole, then hit it. You don’t find the hold at 100MPH.
He’s certainly not the best back in the class, but I think he provides a little more power presence to your lineup. You have a lot of speed in the backfield, but a guy like Pryor is a nice change up. Someone like him can thrive in short yardage and can even take the defense by surprise a little. They are used to those quick backs, and then they receive a little blast from a thicker guy.
As far as a big back
I’m fine with a big back, but we zone block and you have to be able to pick the hole and hit if. You typically need good acceleration to do this, something he doesn’t look to have.
I still think we need to get a back like the big 10 uses
what would have happened if PJ hill or B-wells came here insted
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I really admire your enthusiasm
BC is not the terror at DT they were last year so they can be ran on a little eaiser. They will have to play eight this year to stop us in the run game which opens them up downfield for an improved Ponder.
Very good point. I hope this game won’t be a “weather game” with snow.
NC – This game looks tough on paper until you look closely. They have no running game, they lost all of thier WR’s and the defense is good but not THAT good. The Noles are a complete team and its takes more than just defense or offense to beat them this year. Look for a medium scoring game and the Noles winning by seven.
I too have questions about their run game, but this is a Thursday night road game against a very talented and well coached team. I think this is a low scoring slop fest, likely decided by a turnover.
Clemson: Another interesting game. The probelm for Clemson is that while they have good talent and will have improved some from last year, the Noles improved more, especially on offense. Look for Clemson to score (and take the lead) but then our running game starts to pay dividends in the fourth. Win.
Clemson is still loaded with talent and they have an ALL-Star coaching staff— one that rivals and probably exceeds ours. Clemson switched their offense to resemble what teams do to beat us: spread us out and run. they now have a mobile QB, an experienced OLine, return C.J. spiller, and should have the best defense in the conference— probably by a good margin.
Agree on Wake. They are in for a down year.
Agree— Maryland has been slipping for some time now.
We don’t have a single player who could start for UF. They win.
It’s probably unrealistic to project a win or loss ina game we don’t even know if we will be in.
This UF talent stuff is funny. I’ll take P-Rob over anybody in thier secondary, I’ll take Watson over Spikes, Bradham over any outside backer they have (he’s a freaking beast, he knocked out Harvin with that vicious hit), our OL is now the best in the ACC, I’ll take Thomas over ANY back they have and so would they.
Unfortunately, NFL scouts and impartial observers disagree.
I think PRob could be their #2 corner… maybe, but Jenkins is much better than him.
Watson is tiny, he’d be a backup safety for UF.
Bradham has no instincts, plays the wrong position for us, and is lost on the field.
Our OL isn’t the best in the ACC yet. We weren’t last year. Praising freshmen for performing better than we expected is one thing, proclaiming them dominant is another.
Thomas is a good back when healthy, but I’d swap him for Chris Rainey in a heartbeat. Thomas had 3 concussions last year.
I am telling you, our RB situation is not that good. Our coaches know it too… and are telling recruits about it.
Rainey is too small for this system which is why Fisher passed on him and i would as well. He doesn’t impress me as a back.
Spikes is way too stiff, I prefer speed over size.
P-rob is bigger and has better coverage skills than Jenkins. Jenkins is too small and gets bailed out because Wright is behind him. All they play is a cover 2 not man to man like FSU. The secondary doesn’t get any pub because of the coaching or lack thereof from MA. We’ve been getting hit for big plays for the last eight years but yet we keep putting DB’s in the NFL.
We STILL can’t cover a freaking TE dragging or going up the seam!
So if’s its not the talent, it must be the coaching.
You've got a problem right here
I prefer speed over size.
read this: http://www.tomahawknation.com/2009/3/11/737204/strategy-session-size-does
I like speed, but we are woefully undersized.
Kill a fly with an axe - Mickey Andrews, his 1998 playbook
Watson will probably play around 230-235 this year, not too shaby. I’d rather have speed because speed kills, just ask the Badgers. There will always be a team that can over-power the Noles but there’s not one on the schedule this year.
No? Not that team from Gainesville?
Or how about that team in Boston? I hear they “have Redwoods” on their OL.
Thank you for bringing this up…
1) When your WR’s and TE’s are running so free in the secondary WAITING for the ball and NO ONE is around him that’s called scheming not talent. UF didn’t outrun, overpower us, out-hit us or anything of the sort enroute to scoring 45, the defense was completely lost the ENTIRE GAME. That’s terrible coaching not having superior talent.
2) There were two teams that overpowered us: BC and Wake both of which lost a lot on defense which is why we will beat both this year because they haven’t improved and we have. The reason why BC kept the ball for so long is because Andrews can’t defend a running QB based offense, simple as that. The zone -read is easily defended if you know how to scheme for it.
I should have clarified
Sorry
With UF I was talking about how they dominated our offense with a sizeable DL (stopping our run) and forcing Ponder and DW to pick them apart. I wasn’t talking about our defense (I think we all know what the problem there is against UF).
I know scouts and people in the NFL and they change like the wind. Jenkins is too small. What they say now will be reversed once they get Jenkins in fornt of them and compare him to P-rob that plays man to man 80 percent of the time againstthe opposing teams top WR.
Not even close regarding draft status.
Clemson will be a good hard fought game because of thier talent. I didn’t say we’d go undefeated, i said 10-11 games and the ACC. We can certainly lose to Clemson AND NC. I just don’t see it happening as Clemson will be breaking in a new QB and NC doesn’t have experienced skill people on the offensive side ofthe ball.
Am I the only one that gets flashbacks at the mention of "The Weatherford Report"?
It was FSUncensored’s “Baby One More Time.”
The insight and analysis in that report was the Catholic Schoolgirl outfit of the FSU blogosphere.
Oh 2008, where have you gone?
well there aways
The Clown Report
wait that sounds more like something Matt would do
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
It would be about Chuck and which Waffel shop Chuck likes the best
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Welcome TheChi
Actually that is pretty close to how I would summed it up. Every year the last two years I say the Noles are going to be better than people think. Well for the most part they have been.
In Jimbo’s first year many were even saying we lose 12 games. I thought 8 maybe nine wins but even with that I thought our talent was better than it really was and some decent coaches would whip them into shape. What we saw was a lot of attrition.
Last year I said we win 9 to 10 games and it was same old you must be crazy guy. We should have won ten and the real back breaker was the Tech fumble on the goal. We should have finished the season 10-3 maybe 11-3 if Mickey can find a way to stop a quarterback from running who can’t run to begin with.
So yeah I like the way Chi looks at things. I don’t know about 12 wins but I would say 10 or 11. FSU has gotten slowly better every year since the arrival of the new coaches. I don’t see them taking a step backward.
It will be a better team even with 9 to 10 wins. They will be gaining the experience to really roll in 2010 especially if we have a new defensive coordinator.
The only thing I would disagree with the Chi on is Mangum at corner. If this comes about we will know there are problems there. He is slow as molasses. I still see the NCSU receiver leaving him for a touchdown like he was standing still. I can’t believe Jenije, Allen, Alexander or somebody can’t do better than this. I would take Reid and start him as a true freshman before I would go this route. Mangum is better at SS as at least he can tackle.
Philosophical Question
Is it possible to improve and have the same or worse record compared to the previous year?
yes If we lose 3 mare games last year but
only by 3 points and close the game in some like WF and UF. If we get down to a TD within those game I would say that we had a good year with tough games. the record says we did ok but If we are within 3 pints to UF I would look at that as a win myself.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Absolutely
Sometimes the ball just won’t bounce right. Don’t worry censored you have my word FSU wins 10 anyway.
I think FSU is in good hands and on the right path
But untell we get out with the old and in with the new I dont think we will be in the NC anytime soon. We might make a OB game and might win it. but top 15 next year is the goal and winning the ACC can make that happen.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
It sad, but true...
We might just win the ACC, but I’m inclined to believe FSUn’s view that none of our starters could start for UF (beside Hudson, woohoo). One of our top recruiting tools is playing time as a true freshman. We’re improving, but people talking about holding up a crystal football this year are delusional. I’m just gonna pop in my VHS tape of the 2000 Sugar Bowl and have another glass of this tasty koolaid…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Can you believe it?
This year is the 10 year anniversary. What happened?
At one time...
We had a defense that could stop Mike Vick. Even the NFL defenses couldn’t do that…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
I'm not sure we ever really stopped him, just slowed him down a bit.
Plus, didn’t he have an ankle injury?
I'm sorry, I was was gulping this koolaid...
What was the question?
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
I don't remember him hurting his ankle.
I do remember him hurt his hand hitting a helmet on the follow-through of a throw. Messed him up for the 2nd quarter but was fine the 2nd half.
Hey Bud...
whats up man! It’s DK. I just found out that this was you from some of the guys (Phi Delt). You do an awesome job with this site (I’ve just started to read the last few months). Let me know if you need any help or anything… I’m gonna have to start posting here for sure. Keep up the good work, man!
P.s. You’re doing your thing at Bama right? Hows that going?…
by fancypantsmgee on Apr 15, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
DK
good to hear form you. Yeah man, still up here at Bama. One more year to go, then I’ll try to find a job I guess. You still in Tally?
Glad you came over.
by Bud Elliott on Apr 15, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont think we have a shoot at the NC tell 2012.
I think by then we will have the OC and DC we need and the talent to get there. We are not as far as some people think. Also Sad but True UF will be Tebowless. That Offense is bassed around him alone and you dont replace someone like that over night.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I think Tebow gets entirely too much credit for UF’s success. They have an embarrassment of riches at the skill position. He’s incredibly valuable as a short yardage guy for personnel reasons, but he isn’t Vince Young like some make him out to be. And his arm is a rag…just awful. I’m incredibly surprised that more teams don’t force him to throw like Oklahoma did.
I dont think teams have the talent like OU did
Teams will try but OU has a damn good Def. We can try but UF has power and speed.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Wow. Excellent post and thread.
Did TheChi make it out alive?
What sucks is of course we all want folks like TheChi to be right in their predictions, but the tragedy is that casual fans like him would have no idea what this team would have accomplished if it were to win “11 or 12 games” against this schedule. TheChi acts like that would be no big deal because, howdoyousay, all those teams suck. Maddening. That’s the problem with kool-aid. If this team wins 9 games again this year, there should be dancing in the streets of Tallahassee. And if, by the grace of God, it wins 11 or 12, people like TheChi should have at least a modicum of appreciation for the kind of effort it would take for this team to pull something like that off.
In a TOTALLY UNRELATED NOTE, a popular FSU paysite recently downplayed expectations for the 2009 season after spring practice ended, stating 8-4, not 9-3, was a reasonable goal for the fall.
I didn’t say thet sucked, I said they’re in worse shape than we are and they lack the one thing that can truly stop FSU, A great DL.
Again, name one team that has that DL that can stop our running game. Because if you can’t stop FSU running its going to be good night forthe opponent.
Dude.
Talk about injuries and how even one or two will affect the season with our depth situation. Talk about how tune-up games are set up in this schedule to keep the team rested and motivated for the big games. You know, all ELEVEN of them. College football is not played on paper, and a schedule consisting of 11 bowl teams is not played over the course of an hour or two on an internet blog. We’re all friends here, but this isn’t a tribal council (for lack of a better term) where we hold a pep rally everyday for the upcoming season. We value your input, but please respond to the folks who are asking you questions, and don’t ask me something that you’ve already gotten a reply to. You have zero appreciation for the type of effort this team will need to put forth in order to win eight games this season and have a very outside shot at making the ACC championship game. With realistic expectations, I think you might find a lot of enjoyment in watching your Noles this year.
UNC has an elite front 7 to shut us down.
If Miami plays it right they can as well. They have the talent.
UF has an amazing front 7.
It’d not just the defensive line, it’s the front 7, you have to include the backers.
I’m not saying they don’t have good defense, i’m saying they don’t have a great offense and you need to be a more complete team to beat the Noles. The ACC won’t be that strong this year as everyone has lost too much BUT the Noels lost the least which is why they will win those games.
There is no way the Noles lose more than three, that means we STILL finish at 10-4 ASSUMING we lose the bowl game. The ONLY team I can’t see us beating is UF. And that’s being totally serious because the other teams are just really flawed. So if you compare our biggest weakness against the teams we play strengthes, who has the personnel on that side of the ball to exploit them? UF, Clemson and GT. We’re not going to lose all three so that still leaves us at 10-2 going to the ACC Championship game.
Size ib the case of UF.
And since they can stop the run on their own, they CAN drop 7, if they so choose. We CAN’T if we’re going to stop the run, leaving us vulnerable to the pass. That’s the difference.
the dif is Miami and UF have been getting 7+ 5* recruits
and FSU has been getting 3-4 for the last few years. UF is putting them to good work but UM is not. FSU gets the left overs.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
We ran on UF last year, its just we couldn’t stop thier offense and it forced us into a more of a passing game which wasn’t our strength last year (plus Ponder was hurt). We ran on GT also last year and their line was better than UF’s. We ran on Miami last year and thier was better than UF’s.
I think we all agree UF is better than us right now.
Be it coaching or power or talent they are better. Miami has better talent but they dont use it. VT should have beat us last year but there QBs got hurt. As for GT we are not going to stop there option. We can try but to stop it you have to be chached and thats something our coaches cant do on Def. I think our Offense can hang with them but our Def cant. Its going to be a shoot out. Clemson is going to be a new team next year and look nothing like what they were this year. Size matters and we dont have it as of right now. If Our DT and DE get pushed around and the O-line gets to the LB game over. Our LB are to small and will have to get free. Its going to be a mismatch all year. Yes we have speed but that will only get you so far.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
by Desman on Apr 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
UF is better than us right now no doubt.
As for GT, I’m telling you right they will not win that game and I’ll put up cash on it.
Clemson as you well point out is the wild card. Very talented but wieird team.
the problem with GT is they now have a QB to run the option
The kid they recruited this year is fast and has been running the wing-T option sence Jr high. If thats not good enough then what else do you need its like Vick being let back in to college you dont stop him you just slow him down. thats what is going to happen with GT. And NCST they are going to be a wild card. They might not have a lot but they have the one thing that will give us problems all year. Its not a HB or TE getting open its a fast QB that can make good choises.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
They have 2 QBs to run the option...
I might even argue that Shaw is better than Nesbit…he’s ran a similar offense since middle school
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
see thats my point
MA has a problem stoping running QBs. I dont know why but he does. I thought MA was the man back in the 80s and 90s. Didnt we beat Nabraska when they ran the option. Didnt we destroy other teams I know a lot more ran it back then. Why cant he teach our guys to stop it now. I know GT is the only team that runs it this way but come on. It FL the Def should know this stuff. In High school teams run the trip option or some type of spread. thats about it. all the pro-style left when Lakeland, St Thomas and Dade Co stoped running it.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Athletic arrogance...
We used to have a third string that could start anywhere else in the country, not so much anymore. It’s easy to become a lazy coach when you’re talent is far superior. Given a level playing field, you got to be a better coach…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
You may be right on UF
We may have changed stratagies offensivelly with what was going on with our defense.
I would LOVE to only lose one game
Unfortunately, I dont have the refs in my pocket to make sure that happens.
Like you said, who doesnt want TheChi to be right. My Garnet and Gold glasses have broken I’m afraid, so I have to look at whats going to likely happen. One loss is not likely.
TheChi, if the schedule goes how you said, I promise to send you a bottle of Jack. Although, I would be pissed since UF would be the ones to keep us out of the national championship. Wow, yea dude, there is literally no chance you are right. We are not going to miss out on the NC game by one loss…sigh…
Remember I said 11-12 total. We make the NC run next year. And you can send me “Jack” if i’m right on that one and i want people to hold me to the prediction because I know we headed down the right direction.
We are about to become the LSU of Florida. Tough fast defense, and tough running game to set up the playaction. One back set (with three RB rotation) with three WR’s, H-back to sub for the tradditional FB, and a QB that’s mobile with a big arm (that’s why manuel was recruited so hard).
WE ARE EXACTLY ONE YEAR AWAY FROM OUR NC RUN, YOU BETTER GET ON BOARD NOW WHILE THERE’S STILL ROOM!.
Are you Nigel Bradham? Be honest.
Just playing around man.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I meant Mr. Daniels, I reread that and it could be taken in the wrong context haha.
You know what TheChi, Im not even frustrated by your comments. I sincerely hope you are right. God, I hope are right…
I wish I shared your optimism. ’10 should be a good year.
Why would you be frustrated by my comments. The proof is in the pudding. We’ll see, but i want everyone that is doubting me about the Noles winning 10 games to show up and eat thier crow when it happens.
Im not saying it wont happen because Im optimistic
I think we can win all but the UF game. At the same time any give day any given team can win any given game. I never know who said that but its true. What whould be funny is to see Duke and NCST played in the ACCCG next year. You laugh but it could happen. Only the odds are slim to none. (For Duke at least.) The thing you have to look at for me at least is not can our Def stop the other team because I dont know if we can but can there Def stop us. Im hopeing not but ponder gets hurt and EJ is not ready or our WR cant step up and fill the shoes we need them to it could be a long your for FSU fans. The good news is if that happens BB will almost have to hang it up. As we say in the Army Hope for the BEST and expect the worst
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
see now thats unreal
The only chance of not winning the lottery is not to play. There are to many thinks that could happen over the next 4mo. Ponder could get hurt. BB could pass away, Tebow could leave school to become a mission worker. Now I beleave that we will win more games or at least play better games next year Im not going to say we are going to win 10. The teams in the ACC are to close. I think we will see the same thing we saw this year. I hope FSU is a game up at the end and Most should want that. Think about it what happens if BB gets 10 wins next year and JoPa dies or only get like 3 BB stays for another year and thats a bad thing for the program.
I hope that nothing bad happens to BB or JoPa I respect them and love them for what they have done for CF.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Your comments are becoming progressively more ridiculous.
Which damages your credibility and will encourage the suspicion that you are actually a Gator troll or a 14-year-old. First of all, you do have a chance of winning the lottery if you play, albeit minute. Therefore, based on your own analogy, FSU does have a chance to lose six games.
Dude you’re starting to sound stupid. I know my chances are small to win the lottery moron if I play which is my point exactly. You’re too childish to be as old as you are.
Wow. Thank you for proving my point...
and directing me to option #2.
Let's not call anyone any names, Chi.
This is a good discussion, lets not mar it with name-calling.
Kill a fly with an axe - Mickey Andrews, his 1998 playbook
its ok Chi Im cool with that
As long as you pay your taxes you can say all you want about me.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
That wasn’t directed at you but inresponse to FSUJAB who obviously doesn’t know football.
Just paid my taxes but i get a refund this year but i won’t in 2010. Oh well.
I ment by paying your taxes I get my money.
thats all nothing more. It was a bad joke that I say a lot.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Censored
I am going to be here to rub in when someday Ty “Superman” Jones becomes the toast of Tallahassee! LOL Possibly also when McMahon is voted All American and Gresham makes a full recovery and is the starting linebacker.
Honestly the Chi has a shot at being close but the offensive line has to continue beefing up this off season and provide some serious pass blocking and Ponder develop a bit more.
If FSU can consistently run the ball down people’s throats and eat clock this could be a possibility. A serious injury to Ponder, Thomas and Jones would spell trouble. The same however can be said for UF. If Tebow broke his leg I will say right here FSU would win more games than Florida. That is doubtful however as the mother seems indestructible.
It seems to be only FSU who runs up streams of torn ACL ligaments and broken legs.
I'll be the first to cheer for him,
because if he does that, it means he will have the personal responsibility needed to monitor his diabetes and the attention to detail needed to be a success on and off the field.
McMahon might not even start as a senior. Trickett is seriously considering moving Rodney to center because that’s where he will play in the NFL. McMahon could easily be a scholarship casualty once Jimbo takes the helm. That’d be a move I’d love to see because it would signal a giant step int he right direction.
Gresham… won’t even accumulate 100 tackles in his career.
UF tore 4 ACL’s in fall practice last year. I think it seems we get them because we follow FSU sports and we are inundated with ’Noles coverage.
Definitely off topic
But saw in the first line that FSUncensored is in law school. Where do you go? I’m in my 3rd year at FSU and about to end my 7 year-run of college in Tally.
FSU picked up a preferred walk on in Jonathan Wallace out of Jacksonville. 6-7 230 pound tight end from Jacksonville. 19 catches for 236 yards.
I know nobody here is going to jump up in the air and kick their heels together over a walk on but that is a position where FSU could use a crawl on if nothing else. It won’t take up a limited scholarship.
Personally, I like the cut of TheChi's gib. Welcome from another newbie.
I also see the Garnet and Gold Kool-Aid glass as 3/4 full.
9-3, maybe 10-2, and we win the bowl game. (maybe Orange).
It is refreshing to see a difference of opinions without all the personal sh!t.
The best case scenario is Ponder develops that long-range passing attack, a TE steps up, the other corner plays well opposite of P-rob and the DL plays great. Record 12-2, ACC Champs and Orange Bowls losers to OK ot Texas
Worst case Scenario is Ponder doesn’t make progress, TE doesn’t step up, we continue to give up stupid plays in the secondary as P-rob falters and the other CB doesn’t do the job, the DL is under-par. Record 9-4. including the bowl game.
What will happen is somewhere in the middle and that’s why you’ll see 10 victories at least, an ACC Championship and a OB loss. Record 11-3.
hmm
Worst case Scenario is Ponder doesn’t make progress, TE doesn’t step up, we continue to give up stupid plays in the secondary as P-rob falters and the other CB doesn’t do the job, the DL is under-par. Record 9-4. including the bowl game.
I gotta say that if all the things you say above happen, with the schedule FSU has, 9 wins would be closer to best case scenario. If P-rob falters and another CB doesn’t step up coupled with under par D line play…could lose a lot of games. Especially if Ponder doesn’t make progress.
Shoot the messenger if you have to.
But I think it’s way past time to stop taking this guy seriously. This is the most attention I’ve ever seen an (I suspect) troll garner at TN.
troll = TheChi; not you, Surfanole.
Obvious I’m sure, but maybe I’m a little sensitive as I just finished an awkward argument with a guy who wanted to believe I was Bobby Bowden’s illigitimate son because I gave him a 15-year-late slap on the wrist for being a dynasty brat. Not my best week at the Nation.
What makes a troll at TN?
Haven’t been here long enough to know. My understaning has always been a fan of one team that goes on another’s to “run their mouth.”
I shouldn't have said anything. Please don't ever feel paranoid or think that you can't speak up at TN.
For TheChi to come on TN and to run in the face of everything we study and deliberate about for this long had begun to smell a bit. No reaction to hard facts, no response to the theories and trends that guys have spent months and years developing here. I also noticed he didn’t respond to my posts, interesting considering that the things I asked about were little things like the impact of injuries, the pacing of the schedule, etc. – little things that just happen to be an afterthought to the casual fan and are given no real analysis at paysites. So TheChi reeks of Garnet-and-Gold-glasses-wearing paysite fodder or some prom queen like skigator93 finally taking me up on my challenge to infiltrate the joint now that summer’s here. (I don’t put anything past that guy.) Couldn’t care less who it is, but I thought I’d risk the boom stick and put it out there that I thought we’d seen enough. (I’ve been told much worse here myself.) :) No biggie.
Well just so people knoe Im not him ether
thats prob a bad joke. Also As to say what you what, this is a great bolg the guys run here. They will tell you what they think good or bad. Some with hurt for a die hard fan like myself but sometimes the truth hurt. Still this is one of if not the best College sites.
GO NOLES
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Not a problem
I wasn’t paranoid at all. You just got me curious. It was apparent you guys had a broader definition for what a troll is. You confirmed what I suspected, and I’m glad to hear it. Just thought I’d ask. I can understand the sensitivity. I love the analysis on here. I love how everyone’s views are challenged (much like TheChi’s has been) and forced to be backed up with logical reasons and not “just because.”
If all that happens yeah it could be worse but as long as the Nol;es have that running game they won’t slip too far because the other teams are just too flawed. Who is the powerhouse in the ACC? Va Tech? A team with a QB that can’t be trusted to throw the ball in the middle of the field?
NC? A team with no RBs, no WRs but a good defense? BC? A slow team that lost the strength of its team to graduation? Ditto for GT.
You can crunch numbers all day from last year as i see a lot of people do on this site, its not a bad thing to do to get a frame work. BUT, the people responsible for those numbers are gone and now its all about who has what coming back, your schedule and those teams you play strengthes and weaknesses versuses yours based on your player retention.
When I do analysis, numbers only tell me part of the story. I want to concentrate on schemes people run, the people that execute those schemes and the talent they bring to the table. Numbers are only great predictors if the scenarios that produced the numbers in the first place can be repeated.
That’s why when everyone else called for 7-6 and 8-4 at best I knew we were going to win more than that. Everyone thinks the sky is falling because of the previuous NUMBERS. They don[’t matter this season as NEW numbers will be generated.
I printed this out and it's hanging on the wall behind me in my office.
All I can say is wow. Seriously man. At least we know your process now.
I don’t have the talent or the time to create this, but to anyone reading, use your imagination to picture the Playboy interview with TheChi. At the bottom of the first page are the three black-and-white studios of TheChi. One is the serious look. One is the candid shot. One is the playful, laughing TheChi. These are the three quotes under the photos:
“You can crunch numbers all day from last year… its not a bad thing to do to get a frame work. BUT, the people responsible for those numbers are gone and now its all about who has what coming back, your schedule and those teams you play strengthes and weaknesses versuses yours based on your player retention.”
“When I do analysis, numbers only tell me part of the story. I want to concentrate on schemes people run, the people that execute those schemes and the talent they bring to the table. Numbers are only great predictors if the scenarios that produced the numbers in the first place can be repeated.”
“That’s why when everyone else called for 7-6 and 8-4 at best I knew we were going to win more than that. Everyone thinks the sky is falling because of the previuous NUMBERS. They don[’t matter this season as NEW numbers will be generated.”
As he confidently slid back into his chair and sipped coyly at his 1993 Garnet-and-Gold Merlot, smoking his finest G. Williams cigar, he offered me a glass of the finely-aged kool-aid. I learned then that he was more than just a Nole fan. He was also a gentleman.
by TRMNole on Apr 17, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
"looking to the left then to the right and back to the left again"
DAMN!!!
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
HAHAHA!
You are too much TRM! Good stuff. This is classic:
“As he confidently slid back into his chair and sipped coyly at his 1993 Garnet-and-Gold Merlot, smoking his finest G. Williams cigar, he offered me a glass of the finely-aged kool-aid. I learned then that he was more than just a Nole fan. He was also a gentleman.”
You’re hater which why I will NEVER repsond to you in football terms. you’re also immature. Everyone else has disagreed like gentlemen except you.
Shame.
I’m speaking of his tinted green stuff I’m speaking of his earlier comments that I didn’t appreciate. We can all disagreed but at least disagreed without the personal stuff. If you don’t agreed then say that, personal attacks are not needed not unless you’re insecure about your logic in the first place.
well about Im not a number guy but
FSU sucked when JB was in charge of the offense and MA defence has slowly went down hill sence the 90s. I dont think it will over night or the summer stop everyone like it did back in the day. As for Jimbos Offense Its is getting better day in and day out. And I could see up having a top 10 Offense next year with the people we have coming back. My only ??? for them is are the WR going to step up like people think.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
One of the 2 biggest question marks for me as well
Can the OL give Ponder some pass protection?
Can the receivers do their part if they do?
Im not to worried about the o-line
worst case is the o-line goes back to the moving pocket like last year but will do it better. Im worried about the WR because I only know Reed and with Esterling out we are going to have to trust the Running game is going to be ok. I dont get to see the spring game but they make it sound like they are on point. But then again Our Def could just suck that bad too.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
If pass pro doesn't get a lot better
Then Trickett is not quite the coach I’ve been giving him credit for.
He’s my favorite of our current coaches and I hope he continues to excel but not providing somewhat decent pass pro = fail.
Im hoping the weight room and a year of OL growth will do wonders for their ability to pass pro.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I got a question what about the RB and pass Pro
A smith was not a big back but I never noticed him picking up anyone really. I saw almost every game but I cant remember ever seeing him lay someone out or having a black that saved the QBs. I know a lot of the time they would roll out to the flats but we need to have them at least hit and roll out there. we are not the only team in the ACC that blitzs every play are we
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I know that the current RB's are having trouble with helping protect.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Well
We may disagree a little bit but I’ll never be so happy to be wrong.
If we win 11-12 games this year...
In 2 years Jimbo will be coaching at LSU, and Bobby will be back to signing 5 year contracts…To quote my hero “I’ll keep doing this as long as I keep winning”…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
I kind of doubt it
The buy out for Jimbo and the one year contracts for BB pretty much explain to him that he can coach next year if he wants to but that is it. I can’t believe the trustees will spend five million so BB can stand on the sidelines taking notes.
Maybe he will take a hint and retire after this year. I have to admit 2 and a half million dollars is a lot of money to turn down for taking notes.
so what will happen if
BB retires. Who else will fallow him? Whos going to try to stick it out and think Jimbo isnt going to give them there pink slip? Who is going to stay and or get premoted or a better title at least like ASt. HC in waiting so they can make more money than just a line coach. Thats the drama I can wait for. I hope Chuck makes it through the first day so we can have one last day of bashing him and him alone. God, that man is a R-tard. Sad that he makes me feel smart.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Doesn't it just blow your mind
That someone would hire him as a head coach? I mean, maybe a high school team or something…. but NC State?? Crazy.
your luck my wife is in the other room
she would blow up If she saw someone bash her beloved Wolfpack. I dont know what they were smoking up there Prob the same stuff BB was when he brought him back.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
He did do a great job improving their facilities.
Raised a lot of money. NCST has really unrealistic expectations. They should be happy each time they make a bowl game.
ha ha again my wife is next to me
Thank God shes studying lol kiss my @$$ woman. JK. ha Im going to get in trouble for that one.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
This thread is like the ex that keeps calling...
telling you how great you team is how much you two should be together…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Why?
By arguing with an idiot you 1) encourage them, 2) validate & acknowledge their existence, and 3) waste your own time. If someone wants to have a legitimate debate that includes facts and reason, not pure speculation, conjecture and opinion without any basis, I would be glad to engage that person.
Besides, this is just a blog not Flight 93.
there is one thing to doing it.
you wait some time when there is nothing to do. I have see 5 patentsat work today. There is nothing better for me to do. Im board of playing my PSP and there is nothing cool going on in the world at the moment.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
This thread is like this because we usually come to some sort of consensus
At this site, I dont believe we have ever had a level of antagonist like the current one. To some extent, I am enjoying it because it forces me to not become complacent. It forces me to look more in-depth at the hard work brought to us by FSUn and TC so that I can nitpick the info to see if the other side has any sort of credible theories. Regardless of the fact that thechi has yet to provide anything other then hopes and opinions, I use the posts as a spring board to remember that this is not gospel, only well written analysis. At the end of the day, its up to each of us to interpret the info logically to build up our own expectations.
That said, I still think GT beat the crap out of us last year. There is no chance unless God himself speaks to me, that I will believe that we were in that game before the QB got knocked out.
Not just GT...
But if not for freak injuries, VT would have beat us too. I’m think out new def game plan is the “roll the ankle” tackle. Who needs half time adjustments when the 3rd string is in…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
GRAB, DROP, and ROLL...repeat....
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
We welcome the challenge and discussion that our number crunching provides.
There are hundreds of ways to look at stats and all of us could be provided the same data and put very different spins on it…that is the reporting side of stats…We all look at different types of stats. We all value different types of stats. In basketball, I really like the tempo free analysis that Ken Pomeroy provides. I think the rationale behind the equations that go into generating the stats are thoughtful, practical and generally correct. Some people totally hate his stats. For example, some people like to look at points per game that a school scores and how many points per game they allow. Well…to me that isn’t an accurate assessment…I prefer to look at the trend of points per possession scored and allowed.
Our goal is to provide you with the most accurate statistical and objective data and use that as the basis of our arguments. Whether you agree or disagree with our assessment is entirely up to you…that is the joy of this site.
We have an incredible fan base who provide thoughtful logical arguments, even if they aren’t in line with mine or FSUn. You should look closely at our work, you should ask questions your should reflect upon it and see if it is in line with your thoughts about what is important about football or basketball.
Our goal is to provide you the most in depth unique analysis of the Noles. We love our teams and only hope to share our passion with you. We may not always speak positively about the Noles but our goal is not to sugar coat. Stats are stats. Either you’re into them or not. We have our ways of evaluating our team, this just happens to be our method. I’m glad to see the enthusiasm about this team. Time will only tell what happens. We always welcome fresh ideas and opinions about our team.
by TrueCubbie on Apr 17, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Is it just me or should TC stand for The Chosen?
TC, from basketball to sports injuries to stuff like this, you’re just the friggin’ man, man.
You offer numbers form last year that doesn’t aplly because the scenarios have changed completey to predict what happens this year, if you were at a investment bank you’d be fired.
I offer what teams have coming back in relation to our strengths and weaknesses in addtion to where the game is played, the experience of the players involved the probality of improvement etc.
Again you offer unreliable numbers and I offer current facts regarding personnel and schemes used.
Take notes.
Current "facts"? Um... those aren't facts
Past performance can be a great predictor of future performance.
Its almost all we have right?
And even when we try not to, but to look for something like “success factors” those factors are based on what we perceive as cause and effect or highly correlated relationships between conditions and outcomes?
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
And those came from past experiences right?
Or there would be no relationships to base events on.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Clearly there is nothing we can gleam from past performances ;)
by Bud Elliott on Apr 18, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly, burn the records and fire the accountants!
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Bah I say to you sir.
Please stop being ridiculous.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
ok we I have a question
are we going to run the bubble screen next year as much as we did this year. Is it a better play agenst man or zone. I could see why it work better case to case. I lost know when we didnt run the bubles we would throw slants. Im just trying to understand a bit more.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
It can be effective against both. It is generally easier to complete for positive yardage against zone, but it can be killer against man. One missed tackle and you could have a touchdown. Really, if it’s a staple of the offense then it’s likely your team is practicing it extensively against both man and zone coverage.
Better against zone
How much we run it really isn’t up to us— it’s determined by how often the defense lines up in a specific way.
So when Fisher gets on Ponder's case for not doing checks
Does checking to see if calling a Bubble comprise a good bit of those opportunities?
Or is it checking to see if the Safety is crouching up or in a position to be one on one with a WR?
In essence, can you edify my on what the QB is considering when doing his checks.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
The bubble... we never "call" it from what I understand
It’s a play ponder checks to, pre-snap. A covered/uncovered call.
I never hear Jimbo getting mad at him for not doing a presnap check— he actually does it really well. He struggles checking DOWN, as in, checking down to find his 3rd or 4th underneath option.
Presnap checks note the positions of the safeties, who is hot (if any), and the qb often will know where the ball is likely going with the ball before the play
do we have a like to a tread where we talk about this.
I would like to see the teams we ran this and teams we didnt. I thought once FSUn might have said that we would throw slants on teams we couldnt run the bubble on. Im just trying to understand how the checks work. I live how Jimbo is a strategist. He is one of the best Ive seen in a long time that will run plays and not just set up the team we run them on but teams down the road. In the first 2 games last year he throw a lot out there and then each game after he added just a bit more not so throw that team off but to set others I think. I think thats why the bubble was so successful. because its sets up other plays so that if you jump the bubble you get burned down the road on the fake and go. That being said If the bubble is a check would the fake bubble be a play called from the side.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Dude I totally agree
I always watched the games and when they put D’Vo in I’d say “Jimbo’s settin’ up for teams down the road.”
We ALWAYS ran with D’Vo, but of course, there were a few times, when he threw the ball, and it always (I think) worked perfectly.
I think Jimbo’s a very smart strategist.
ok so let me see
If they are playing man and up on the ball the slant would be the check off but if they are 5-10 yrd off the ball the bubble would be better because we can get the blocker and get a one on one in open space for 3-5 yards eazy. Thats how I would see it.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Wow....
I should not have let 3 days go by without reading this thread. Getting hit with all of that at one time is like … wait, this is a family show.
I don’t understand the line of reasoning that assumes since players have been on campus a year longer that makes them the greatest football players of all time. There is no magic “experience” dust. Some players will get better. Some won’t. I tend to believe that at some positions, a lot more won’t than will.
Saying we have the best LBs in the country is ridiculous.
I appreciate the optimism. I really do!! But let’s not act like it’s a fact-based opinion.
If USC had the best LB unit based on numbers last year, does it mean they have it based on numbers this year. Of course not, so people relying on last year’s NUMBERS to predict what is going to happen this year is crazy.
But past accomplishments are an indicator or future accomplishments.
I tend to think good ones as far as athletes go. You can’t say the same for our LB’s.
I broke my rule of not arguing the point that our LB’s are not the best in the nation, top to bottom. I will now let it go.
We disagree.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
And theres a difference between RELYING on past accomplishments, as far as the psyche of the athlete or coach goes
and us, as outside people, trying make the unknown more predictable.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I think we have good LB but there small.
If we had a D-line that could keep the O-line off the LB then yes they could be great. but we might ahve problems there. We get blown off the ball 3 out of 4 plays. Yes our Def can get in the backfield but what good is that going to do us when the other gaps are not getting filled. Last we blitzs almost evey play right. That 5-7 going in right and leaves 6 to 4 guys to cover 5 WRs, TEs, and RB. Slants, Flairs and anything going to a TE is going to burn us every time. If we have suck great LB why cant we stop 1 TE. I was a LB in high school and that was my man I cover him or the RB in the flats. FSUs LB are not getting that done ether because they cant or Chuck sucks that bad.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I think Chuck is the pony to bet on.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
I think the LB could be good and chuck sucks that bad
its funny because our MLB or SLB should prob be playing Weak side.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
You guys can have your forum back, I just happen to notice that all of you were prety down on the Noles and I felt you weren’t looking the the others teams strengths and weaknesses in comparison to our. I just don’t know where you see five or six losses. I can’t see two honestly with this schedule and our talent coming back.
Are you happy now TRMNole? Everyone can payattention to you now.
Peace to everyone but FSUJAB and TRMNole… and
GO NOLES!
Hey guys, I'm over HERE. Pay attention to me now.
Relax gang, TheChi’s not going anywhere. Doing so would only prove he was a real troll the whole time. I think he knows he pushed it when he pretended to have his feelings hurt by the Playboy bit. (You know, because real people take stuff they read online personally.)
So are you all really attached to the little guy now? I can work my magic. (I have no magic.) I can talk to him. (It wouldn’t go well.) I can stay out of this. (Bingo.) Let me know how it goes.
lol, peace to everyone BUT X and X.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Good post over there, man.
Got stuck in my C game for two days trying not to let a legitimate thorn in my side for almost two decades get under my skin. I can go days just reading TN because of the awesome writers, thinkers, everyday guys like you and me here that type away and usually end up saying what I’m thinking anyway, but I see something like that and I just couldn’t take it. It took me back to some bad times. But I can’t afford to get banned either. Anyway, I’m glad you could relate.
Except I do hate Bowden now, as everyone here knows, haha! Doesn’t that suck? (Rhetorical, no worries.) Go Noles!
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