Where should Florida State football be ranked to start the 2009 season?
by Bud Elliott on May 18, 2009 6:00 AM EDT
in FSU Football
75 comments
After seeing that Athlon released their preseason rankings, I decided to take a look at the national consensus for the 'Noles.
In fact, I decided to jump back to middle school math and run a standard deviation on the preseason rankings (15 polls in all).
| Rank | Team | Average | Standard Deviation |
| 1 | Florida | 1.09 | 0.38 |
| 2 | Texas | 2.18 | 1.11 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 3 | 1.24 |
| 4 | USC | 4.45 | 1.88 |
| 5 | Alabama | 6.91 | 2.71 |
| 6 | Virginia Tech | 7.55 | 4.61 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 7.64 | 2.56 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 8.55 | 3.09 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 8.64 | 3.03 |
| 10 | LSU | 9.09 | 3.25 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 12.45 | 1.98 |
| 12 | Penn State | 12.81 | 2.35 |
| 13 | Oregon | 13.81 | 5.77 |
| 14 | Boise State | 15.18 | 5.82 |
| 15 | Georgia | 16 | 3.73 |
| 16 | Cal | 16.72 | 4.46 |
| 17 | Florida State | 17.63 | 5.80 |
| 18 | Utah | 19.54 | 3.36 |
| 18 | TCU | 19.54 | 4.93 |
| 20 | North Carolina | 20.54 | 5.79 |
| 21 | Iowa | 21.18 | 4.69 |
| 22 | Kansas | 22.9 | 3.48 |
| 23 | Notre Dame | 23 | 5.06 |
| 24 | Texas Tech | 23.72 | 2.82 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh | 23.81 | 3.79 |
Inside, we'll take a deeper look and the numbers and try to determine what really goes into a preseason ranking.
So FSU checks in at #17, on average, as high as 7th by one writer, and unranked by College Football news. More on that in a bit.
What teams do the writers agree on?
Florida (standard deviation of 0.38), voted #1 by 13 of 15 contributing polls, and 2nd in the other two. They a chance to go down as the best team in history and are the definitive number one. Those who would rank someone else to start the season are attention whores and nothing more.
Texas (S.D. of 1.11), a near consensus #2, with over half of contributing writers naming the Longhorns as college football's 2009 maid of honor (a wedding joke, it's wedding season).
Oklahoma (S.D. of 1.24) checks in at #3 in the poll and as 9 of the 13 polls have the Sooners in the three hole.
USC (S.D. of 1.88) batting cleanup here, as the writers were slightly more comfortable choosing the Trojans ahead of Bama, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State or Ohio State.
Not surprisingly, causal writers are most familiar with the elite teams and you often see smaller variance of opinion in the top five. There was one non top-five team that the writers agreed on--
Georgia Tech (S.D. of 1.98). The Yellow Jackets caught me off guard here. They checked in at #11, as 13 of 15 writers placed Tech in the 12-14 slots. The outliers? One has them at #10, and one at #17.
Which teams spur the most discussion?
Boise State (Standard Deviation of 5.82). Boise State checks in at #14 in the aggregate poll. The Broncos were thoroughly outplayed by TCU in their bowl game and were pretty unimpressive throughout the season. One writer has them unranked, while most place Boise State between 14-21. What really skews this number? Pat Dooley of the Gainesville sun ranks them #6, a full 9 spots better than their average.
The Florida State Seminoles (S.D. of 5.80). Ah, FSU. When questions such as "who is coaching the team?" and "will any wide receivers be out of prison in time for opening night?" persist, you can forgive the writers for being all over the board with the 'Noles. One writer has FSU unranked, while two call the Seminoles a top 10 team (no doubt spurred by the Bowl game in which the margin of victory didn't indicate how close the game really was). 9 of the 15 polls, however, have the 'Noles at slots 13-19, which probably seems right (more on this below).
The North Carolina Tarheels (S.D. of 5.79) are the 3rd most difficult to rank team in the early going. Ridiculously, two writers leave off the 'Heels, who return an amazing defense, 4 of 5 starting linemen, and their quarterback, but lose their top three wide receivers. One writer has them in the top 10 at number 9 (college football news), but most of this variance comes because the writers can't decide whether the 'Heels are a top 15 club, or just top 25.
The Oregon Ducks (S.D. of 13.81) were undoubtedly very good at full strength in 2008, but were ravaged by injuries to the quarterback position. That made it difficult to determine their true talent level. They also lost some key veteran players to the draft, but have recruited well in recent years. Mix in some East Coast Bias and the horrible TV deal the PAC10 has, and the Ducks don't get as much exposure as they probably should. The writers have them at #13, and with super genius Chip Kelley running the show, Oregon seems correctly placed as a top 15 club. The disagreement here comes from three writers placing the Ducks at 8 or 7, and three writers placing them between 21-24, both of which seem a little extreme.
But what really goes into a ranking?
It seems to be a combination of perceived talent, program (and coaching) prestige, past performance, conference prestige, returning players, and media hype. Preseason polls are quite silly, very inaccurate, but incredibly important. There just isn't enough vertical liquidity once the season starts. If a team has an unimpressive ranking to begin the season and compiles an impressive record, they will still feel the effects of the low preseason ranking.
For my money, FSU was about the 16th best team at the end of the season, in a tier with UGA, Oregon, Pitt, Texas Tech, Missouri, Cincinatti, and North Carolina. As an aside, I thought that Virginia Tech was at best the 3rd best ACC team, but they won their BCS bowl game, so give them credit.
| Final AP Poll | 2009 PreSeason Polls Average |
| 1. Florida (48) 13-1 | Florida |
| 2. Utah (16) 13-0 | Texas |
| 3. USC (1) 12-1 | Oklahoma |
| 4. Texas 12-1 | USC |
| 5. Oklahoma 12-2 | Alabama |
| 6. Alabama 12-2 | Virginia Tech |
| 7. TCU 11-2 | Oklahoma State |
| 8. Penn State 11-2 | Ohio State |
| 9. Ohio State 10-3 | Ole Miss |
| 10. Oregon 10-3 | LSU |
| 11. Boise State 12-1 | Georgia Tech |
| 12. Texas Tech 11-2 | Penn State |
| 13. Georgia 10-3 | Oregon |
| 14. Mississippi 9-4 | Boise State |
| 15. Virginia Tech 10-4 | Georgia |
| 16. Oklahoma State 9-4 | Cal |
| 17. Cincinnati 11-3 | Florida State |
| 18. Oregon State 9-4 | Utah |
| 19. Missouri 10-4 | TCU |
| 20. Iowa 9-4 | North Carolina |
| 21. Florida State 9-4 | Iowa |
| 22. Georgia Tech 9-4 | Kansas |
| 23. West Virginia 9-4 | Notre Dame |
| 24. Michigan State 9-4 | Texas Tech |
| 25. Brigham Young 10-3 | Pittsburgh |
Gone from the new poll are BYU, Michigan State, West Virginia, Missouri, Oregon State, and Cincinatti. They are replaced with Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Kansas, UNC, Cal, and LSU. 4 of the 6 teams that dropped out lost their quarterback, while all six newcomers return their man under center.
Of course, a preseason ranking isn't only a function of whether a team got better, it's also a function of what happened to the other teams in college football. FSU lost a lot on defense and it remains to be seen what will happen with the newcomers. The 'Noles also took big hits at receiver, though the offense should still be one of the better ones in the country (assuming of course, that you're smart enough to account for pace and opponent quality). The defense could surprise, as long as you expect them to be somewhere between awful and below average. Teams like UGA and Texas Tech definitely lost more than the 'Noles did, while some other squads return their entire lineups.
As for talent, you'll remember that the 'Noles are currently being killed by the 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes (Jeff Bowden's last two), that have yielded hardly any talent. Out of the projected 22 starters, only 8 will be from the 2006 and 2007 recruiting classes! That's pretty poor, and the 'Noles will suffer from a lack of talented upperclassmen. Ideally, I'd like to have 12 or more starters come from the 2006 and 2007 recruiting class. It's a positive for the future, as talented young guys get playing time, but a negative for 2009. Still, teams have been good playing a lot of young guys. FSU seems to have a perceived talent level of a top 15 -20 team.
Another factor in determining how good a team was last year in order to determine how good they will be this year is injuries, and it's something that the National Media completely ignores. The 'Noles were incredibly lucky with injuries in 2008, after having horrible injury luck in 2006 and 2007. Still, the 'Noles had starters miss games due to suspension last year. I'd call it a wash, as the administration isn't likely to impose irrational, arbitrary suspension standards this year, but the 'Noles will almost certainly lose more players due to injury (law of averages).
As for program and coach prestige, the media correctly thinks that Bowden is now a hindrance to this no longer elite program. The off-season media coverage has mostly been negative, because Bowden and President Wetherell won't stay quiet about the appeal, and because FSU's wide receivers keep getting arrested.
After going 9-4 last year, some expect a big jump, but they don't follow the 'Noles as closely as we do and don't realize that we were very lucky to beat Virginia Tech or that we should have been blown out by Georgia Tech. The jump should come in 2010. But that's not the question here.
The question is "where should the 'Noles be ranked in the pre-season?", and judging by last year's performance including a bowl game blowout, returning talent, and current reputation, the average national sportswriter is right to place them between 14-25.
GO NOLES!!
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15.
Those who would rank someone else to start the season are attention whores and nothing more.
…….I love that quote…..It’s true
I understand UGA had a good season last year, but that is a hurting team. The Coaching prestige, conference prestige and past performance kept them in the Top 25.
With that being said, I like Florida State at the 15th spot. Coaching Prestige, Percieved Talent and Media Hype are the attributes that keep them there. Looking at the Top 25 we may be a better team than 15, but there would be no reason to rank us higher. I think the media sees our offensive line, CP7 our running game and assumes that Mickey is going to have a top 5 defense. True or not, this would put us as 15 or higher.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
I would also add a factor to pre-season rankings
is perceived Strength of Schedule.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
at least for the sports writters
who do their homework.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Welcome back, UNFNOLE - was wondering the other day where you've been.
Let me add to your comments by saying that SOS is a tricky topic with regard to preseason polls. The voters have to be right at the end of the year. They may talk about SOS in the preseason, but you never see it written, “We decided to penalize State U. in our rankings for playing such a lousy schedule.” They consider SOS, but they consider if a team’s good (or lousy) SOS will help them or hurt them in terms of wins or losses. (They know what really matters when the rubber hits the road.) And too many of them care only about the outcome of the prediction, not the legitimacy of the ranking.
For the record, this does not mean I advocate “smart” scheduling. I advocate smart voting in these polls. Or, I don’t know, maybe have an 8-team playoff with major conference champs and at-larges and be like every other college sport where rankings are just for fun.
True...
but the at-larges would still depend on rankings would they not? So then you come back to the same debate. To me, a playoff really just ‘moves’ the problem and doesn’t solve it.
Regarding the SOS if a “pollster” wants to be right aren’t they going to penalize teams for tough schedules and give the benefit to teams that player weaker ones? That is more of how I was looking at it. If I see 5 potential losses on Alabamas schedule, I may drop them a few spots lower than LSU who only has 3 potential losses (completely hypothetical).
Still around and def. still reading every article. It’s sad that my Firefox “most visited” this site hasn’t been bumped off the number 1 spot since I joined. My email is still running a distant 2nd.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
Yeah, you hit on my point.
I’d rather see voters reward tough schedules, not penalize them, and in reference to this topic, I’d like to see this in preseason polls. But that’s the preseason poll problem: The voters want their preseason polls to be “right” at the end of the season, so too many times if a team comes up with a touch schedule, you see things printed like, “We’d rank State U. higher if its schedule wasn’t so brutal.” (Side note: No, I’m not confusing preseason mags with voters. But don’t forget that the Harris poll is comprised of a LOT of people / media-types.) And so a lot of those teams begin with a disadvantage, when logic would dictate they should get a head start.
And yeah, “at-larges” in a playoff would be totally subject to the same problems that exist in polling now. I’ll take it. (But let’s not hijack the thread, haha!)
I think 15 may be a little high.
Unless we have some incoming freshman that are able to come in and fill some holes, 15 just fills a little high. I think 22 is a more fitting spot just based on if FSU played team #1 – ?, which one would I say honestly we would first beat. To me, that team would be Kansas, I think in a head to head against 1-21, I would say the other team would win. Honestly, I am really worried that our defense could be very bad. So much so that we regress in wins this year.
However, one good corner, 2 good DL, one good DE and two good Safeties appear from this recruiting class and the sky becomes the limit. Throw in 1 or 2 WRs show up from this recruiting class and we are talking about possible top 5 implications. To me, this recruiting class is a make or break for a good year this year. And we all know, rarely do freshmen come in and make a huge impact, so with me asking for 7 or 8 of them to do that seems to be pushing the odds.
I'd argue that that the last 2 recruiting classes were also "make or break".
In fact, every year is important, but these last 2 had our backs against the Bowden wall. In 2008, Rick Trickett had to make a one-handed shot falling out of bounds while being hacked at the buzzer just to send us to overtime.
I just took a look at the 2005 class, and the few Redshirt Seniors remaining are occupying the 3 consensus areas of need:
—Mincey and Stewart up the middle
—Mangum and Jamie in the seconardy
—Goodman and Owens at wideout.
This only adds to the critical nature of each subsequent recruiting class, and more importantly, developing that talent unlike past trends.
If I were filling out a poll ...
… we would be unranked. If last year’s team played this year’s schedule we would win 6-7 games, not 9. At this point, I think our offensive improvement is canceled out by what will be regression on defense. Plus, the coaching intangibles will only get worse - once things go bad, and our lack of focused leadership is (re)exposed, the season will fall apart.
This feels like a 7-5 team at best to me. I’ll sure be rooting hard that I’m wrong.
Having said that, assuming BB is gone after this season, I’m quite bullish on 2010.
Focused leadership...
meaning coaches or players? I think we have some leaders on our defense in P-Rob and Watson.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
You forgot about another leader
The unheralded leader of pumping up his arms and talking smack right before he is bull dozed onto his back, wanna be speed bump that is Budd Thacker.
Ugh
No idea why that sentenced was struckthrough. Sorry.
"Preseason polls are quite silly, very inaccurate, but incredibly important."
Great quote. 15 is high for this team, but that’s where we’ll need to start to have any chance to finish in the top 15. These pollsters just have to be right at the end of the season. “See, I told you they were a top 15 team!” If we start in even the lower teens and certainly the 20 – 25 range, we’ll be toast if we falter early.
Bingo. As unreliable as preseason polls are, you hit the nail on the head about needing to be ranked as low as possible in the preseason.
If you happen to lose early, or even later against a quality opponent, you still have a chance to finish ranked fairly high. Without doing any research and just going on my memory (or lack thereof), I think last year proves this point. If I remember correctly, we were fighting all season just to get into and then stay in the top 25, in and out of the 25 most of the season, again if memory serves me correctly.
We loved 24 last year.
Here’s our rankings heading into games last year, and the result. The 2 games stretch of NC State to GT was the only 2 week streak of Top 25 status.
Easy come, easy go.
Wake – ranked 24th coming in. Loss.
NC State – 24th. Win.
GT – 16th. Loss.
Clemson – 24th. Win.
BC – 20th. Loss.
UF – 23rd. Loss.
FSUncensored
“Thee Broncos were thoroughly outplayed by TCU in their bowl game and were pretty unimpressive throughout the season.”
Did you even watch BSU play last year? Thoroughly outplayed at the Pointsieittia Bowl? IT WAS 16-17! If you actually watched the game or even the highlights, Boise St. was winning until midway through the 4th qtr! Man! Don’t be writing stuff unless you know the facts. And Boise is definitely a top 15 team that would whoop any ACC last year and this year.
- Go Broncos.
Unrelated question to the topic at hand, I'm just kind of interested...
but are you a frequent reader of the site?
I’m just trying to see what would bring a BSU fan over to the site, no ill will or subcontext intended.
I have the same question....
but i would direct it towards any fan of a team other than FSU. Do people just google their team’s name and try to find any kind of negative press on the web and then try to refute whatever sentence their team was mentioned no matter what was stated? I dont have a problem with an intelligent conversation now and again but to come on another team’s site and start antagonizing their fans or authors seems a little weird. I’m not claiming that BoiseState is doing that but we have a couple posters who have previously. I just don’t comprehend the motive…
I couldn’t care less what a non FSU fan site says about Florida State. Everyone is entitled to their own thoughts and opinions and me going to another team’s blog to argue a point is idiotic and will do nothing but stir the pot. I guess maybe some people get their rocks off from that but i guess ive always been confused why….
I don't take it that far.
I follow some of the other sites for teams we play regularly and such. Miami’s SBNation blog is pretty hilarious. There just doesn’t seem to be a connection between Florida State and Boise State.
I thought maybe he just really enjoyed our site for some reason.
TCU outgained boise 472-250. I think that’s saying enough. Boise was extremely, flukishly lucky to keep it close. The yards tell the real tale, as the Horned Frogs rammed Boise all over the field. TCU was 9-18 on 3rd downs, Boise 3-11. TCU ran 87 plays to Boise’s 55. Boise allowed three different TCU rushers to go for more than 75 yards…
Also, Boise would finish 5th at best in last year’s ACC. You have to be serious and take a look at the talent differential. Boise beat one BCS conference team (Oregon, after they lost their 1st and 2nd string QB’s).
LOOK AT ALL THIS FLUFF. Why not schedule aggressively like FSU did in the early 80’s? You’ll have all the time in the workd to prepare with cupcake after cupcake.
Sat, Aug 30 Idaho State W 49-7 -
Sat, Sep 13 Bowling Green W 20-7 -
Wed, Oct 1 Louisiana Tech W 38-3 -
Sat, Oct 11 at Southern Miss W 24-7 -
Fri, Oct 17 Hawaii W 27-7 -
Fri, Oct 24 at San Jose State W 33-16 -
Sat, Nov 1 at New Mexico State W 49-0 -
Sat, Nov 8 Utah State W 49-14 -
Sat, Nov 15 at Idaho W 45-10 -
Sat, Nov 22 at Nevada W 41-34 -
Fri, Nov 28 Fresno State W 61-10
You struggled with Nevada. Nevada. Seriously.
I cant say where we should or shouldnt be.
I think that Bama, VT and Texas are all overrated. I think Uath should be ranked highter. UGA is going to suck. PSU over Ohio St, Kanas and ND should not be ranked and ND should be one of the worst programs in the US.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I realize preseason rankings don't amount to a hill of beans but
I see know reason to think FSU would not defeat Oklahoma State, Ohio State (everyone else does) LSU which had a worse season than FSU last year and fields a very inexperienced quarterback, Virginia Tech who we defeated last year, Alabama who we defeated the last time we played them and we will be much better this season, Penn State, Oregon State, Boise, Georgia and Cal.
FSU should have beaten Georgia Tech. Giving the ball to Sims is just another of those freak decisions that have plagued us for years. Tech will be better this year but so will FSU and I have to believe another shot at the triple option by Mickey will be a better effort. Please let it be!
I will give credit to Ole Miss as they went out and demonstrated some good football for a change and deserve to be ranked ahead of FSU. They beat UF and we didn’t.
Penn State deserves nothing. Everytime they play a good team they lose.
I would rate FSU #6 right behind Ole Miss at #5. Now my perception is skewed as every year I think this is the turning point for FSU. An injury to Ponder would be disastrous however unless Manual can pick up things very fast.
You do realize, of course, that we were very lucky to beat Va Tech by virtue of them losing their starting QB and his backup?
I’d say most of the teams you have listed have significantly better talent than FSU, especially Alabama, LSU, and OSU. Those guys are just much bigger programs with much more money. They get better players and have better resources to develop those players. Did you read our recent article on the failed 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 recruiting classes? Those 2006 and 2007 classes should have provided the quality upperclassmen talent, and it’s not there.
As for Mickey… his heart isn’t in it. He has not wanted to coach since his son’s tragic and premature death. Think he really will go out in a blaze of success?
I hope you’re right, but there’s a better chance we win 5 games than 11.
For me preseason polls should be based on expected finish, but
they are not an ulta important poll.
Who should be in the top 10 and who should be in the top 25.
As long as there are no major head scratchers I don’t care much beyond that.
Yeah, right!
GT...is the only head scratcher
they don’t deserve to be this high with their loses on D line.
Yeah, right!
Well, I think they do have big losses there
and I’m not sure of the replacements. They DO have Morgan though, who was their best DE according to Rick Trickett.
I don't think this will happen with regularity...
maybe I just want to see it one more time… “I am a slow learner”
Yeah, right!
No, you're right, and I probably underestimated the losses they will suffer.
But I have extremely high expectations for their offense this year.
Their offense may not only be the best in the ACC
but will be one of the most productive and consistent in the nation.
"I have come that you may have life, and life to the max"
DOn't forget however...
That GT’s LBs and DBs are really good. They will get up on teams, making them have to throw. That plays in to their strengths on def…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
That it was
but they got a starting corner back from the rape charge
and 2 guys who were lost for the season are back.
how do they pick time slots for games.
Is it pick already the 1200 300 700 gmaes or do they pick them on rank and game quality. Miama and FSU would get a better time slot then Duke vs UVA. I dont know myself. I know it sucked that we got the 1200 and 330 games a lot this year I thought because we were not such a great game to watch when you have so many other teams just as good.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Good Question, Des
Most of it is determined by TV networks. I also prefer the late games, as do most tv fans. Players love night games.
Networks typically pick the best teams because those teams will draw more viewers and increase ratings.
The real question is...
(and someone’s finally gonna ask it) …when will EA ever let me PICK THE GAME TIMES FOR MY SEASON/DYNASTY GAMES in NCAA Football?! What are we talking here, a SINGLE line of code?
Polls don't matter
polls don’t matter and they don’t win games. Matchups, returning talent along with solid coaching does.
There isn’t one team except the Gators that I will concede that the Noles can’t beat, and that’s the Gators. (Not because of talent, becuase Andrews has just totally lost it regarding defensive adjustments and gameplanning).
Every game is winnable except against the Gators. We have more talent than ANY team on that schedule except for the Gators.
Lastly, the reason why the Noles are ranked this high is because the ACC top teams of last year has lost much and the Noles have gained. The Noles are getting better and no other team appear to have the depth and expereince offensively as well as defensively to match them.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Noles walk in the Swamp 11-0. Not saying they will but it certainly won’t shock me because they have the talent AGAINST the scedule to pull it off.
Polls send teams to bowls. Start low, play great, finish in the middle. Start middle, play great, finish high.
Clemson does have more talent than us. Did you read the article I linked on the 2004, 05, 06, 07 recruiting classes?
What have the ’Noles gained? WR? Nope. RB? Nope. DL? definitely not. Secondary? No, obviously not.
Again, you seem to just look at the name “FSU” and assume talent. I am telling you, the veterans on this team are not talented. They are just not good players.
Again, this is a very tough schedule, much tougher than last year. If we go 8-4, be very happy.
1) If you’re unbeaten or lose one game, you’re unbeaten or lose one game. Simple as that. As long as you belong to a BCS conference, it’s not where you start, its if you win.
2) I won’t address the OL or the LBs or the RB or QB because they are strengths of the team.
Here are your concerns:
1) WR – Look closely at the depth chart. The talent is there. The Noles WR corps is better than anyone’s in the ACC and they have a great coach. You’re not always going to have seniors playing each position. Forston will be a monster this year along with Givens who impressed last year. All WR’s will be bigger, faster and stronger this year. I have no worries at all regarding WRs. The only team that can match our proven depth at reciever is UF, Clemson and VT. Additionally, Dawsey has done a great job with the WR’s and i expect nothing less in the future. The veteran you’re speaking of here is Goodman who might lose his position to Givens.
2) DL: We have a decent rotation now forthe upcoming schedule but then we have McDaniel and McAllister coming in the fall. McDaniel is ahead of the curve already as he is no ordinary freshman. Our rotation won’t be dominating just good. The veteran player you’re speaking of is Thacker who hasn’t gottten better. He may not even start theis year.
3) Secondary – I have to agree with you that we have holes that need to be filled. The only teams however that can take advantage it however are passing teams like Clemson, BYU and Maryland. Clemson has a new QB and Maryland doesn’t have the WRs anymore to scare us deep really in addition to an inaccurate QB. BYU has the scheme, but do they have the players. Slow is slow no matter where you play.
8-4 is not even a real option in my opinion. I know you’re more conservative but the schedule is not tough and it may be on par of to year based on returing talent of the teams we play.
Tell that to Auburn in 2003. Pollsters seek to validate their original opinions.
1) WR – Look closely at the depth chart. The talent is there. The Noles WR corps is better than anyone’s in the ACC and they have a great coach. You’re not always going to have seniors playing each position. Forston will be a monster this year along with Givens who impressed last year. All WR’s will be bigger, faster and stronger this year. I have no worries at all regarding WRs. The only team that can match our proven depth at reciever is UF, Clemson and VT. Additionally, Dawsey has done a great job with the WR’s and i expect nothing less in the future. The veteran you’re speaking of here is Goodman who might lose his position to Givens.
Givens is a track guy who can’t run routes. Pure slot guy we can throw bubbles to.
Your assertion that Clemson can match our wideout depth proves how little you follow the conference. Only UNC lost more than Clemson at the wideout position. As for our “proven depth”, I don’t see it. How many of our top 6 pass catchers did we lose? I hope you’re not counting Easterling. There’s a legit chance he never plays a down again. Dawsey has been a great recruiter, but the WR’s have dissappointed under him, particularly with drops and route running.
2) DL: We have a decent rotation now forthe upcoming schedule but then we have McDaniel and McAllister coming in the fall. McDaniel is ahead of the curve already as he is no ordinary freshman. Our rotation won’t be dominating just good. The veteran player you’re speaking of is Thacker who hasn’t gottten better. He may not even start theis year.
I am speaking aas much of who is not even here (flunked out or kicked off) as I am about who is here and underachieving. You can’t seriously expect freshmen to contribute at DT. McDaniel is BEHIND schedule because he has LOST weight due to playing baseball.
3) Secondary – I have to agree with you that we have holes that need to be filled. The only teams however that can take advantage it however are passing teams like Clemson, BYU and Maryland. Clemson has a new QB and Maryland doesn’t have the WRs anymore to scare us deep really in addition to an inaccurate QB. BYU has the scheme, but do they have the players. Slow is slow no matter where you play.
UF, NC State, can probably take advantage of it. Wake and USF have very experienced senior QB’s.
Our schedule is very tough. For you to say it’s not is just plain laughable. 11 bowl teams, CHI. 11. Stop thinking that FSU is the team of yesteryear. That talent is no longer in Tallahassee.
How many games will we win in the regular season? I want a prediction. Out of our 12 games, we win…
We won 8 last year, when you predicted 10. This year’s team should be worse and the schedule is much tougher. Worse team, tougher schedule… yet, improement? I don’t see it…
1) Just because I disagree that has no bearing whatsoever on whether I follow the team or not.
2) They played in bowls LAST YEAR, and most have not gotten better but worse.
3) BYU and USF may have the schemes but you have to have the WR’s and QB to make it come together. Grothe is good but chokes in big games. The USF might be tougher than the BYU game. Just because a team plays at home doesn’t make them world beaters. As far as Wake goes name a WR that scares us, let me help you, none.
4) McDaneil is ahead regarding the more important things besides weight. Weight doesn’t make you good just heavy. Weight doesn’t mean anything if its not combined with maturity, strength and quickness. And he is ahead on all those accounts than 99.99 percent of the incoming freshman DTs.
5) Not counting Easterling at all. Dawsey is a great coach who has improved the WR corps from 2007. You canb’t even begin to argue that he didn’t. Better blocking, better route running and less drops. They are not where they need to be but like the whole offense they are making strides.
Record 10-2 wit6h losses to the Gators and Clemson/BYU.
Well fair enough
Have you read
the piece on the 2004-2007 recruits?
The 1st piece of our “size matters” series?
The 2nd piece of our “size matetrs” series?
If not, I strongly suggest it. Happen to think you’d enjoy them.
Also, did you see today’s article? I’d be tickled to see your projections.
The 04-07 recruits do a little to be desired IN COMPARISON TO OTHER TOP RECRUITING CLASSES. You should not need five star talent to win. The Noles could’ve won with those recruits except that Jeff Bowden, Dickey and McHale didn’t coach them well or develop them worth a snot. No matter how good you incoming talent is, without proper coaching to motivate, develop and put the talent in the right schemes and positions to succeed then you will have a average to bad team.
People like Tommie Frazier, Jim Grobe and to a certain extent Meyer has proven what a good coach can do and they are more valuable than any five star recruit.
I am lost as to what one of the most physically gifted option QBs ever has to do with the rest of that list.
Maybe since The Chi knows football so well then The Chi knows that Tommie Frazier is a great college football coach.
Either you don’t read or are just blind. Fraizer did a fantastic job at Buffalo with not that much talent and that was my point. Good coaches can win without all star talent. That’s in response to these concerns about FSU’s talent not being the sanme anymore. The problem isn’t the talent, its the coaching.
You need to be a little more mature and less confrontational if you’re going to debate me. Your attitude doesn’t make your argument more sound nor does it decrease my knowledge about the game at all in order for you to win an argument.
Turner Gill coaches buffalo
you’re trying too hard.
Chi, go to the main page, phil steele seems to agree with me about our schedule, saying we will finish 34th.
Dude what is wrong with you? Are you ok? Turner Gill is like forty.
You straight down there?
I think in you and Matt D’s zeal to prove something you’re not making yourselves look good….
Calm down. It’ll be alright.
by TheChi on May 21, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Smooth.
Bless me with your football knowledge again.
Got any other former players you want to get confused because of the color of their skin and the position they played?
Maybe you can comment on Adrian McPherson’s career with the Knicks.
No, what makes my arguments sound is that I can cite real evidence to support my conclusions. So far I have only seen you throw out opinions and claim them as facts.
FSUncensored
If you recall at the time it was suggested the FSU baseball team would be lucky to win much more than half it’s games I said I would log on as retardnole if that happened? Of course I was right. Never argue with a guy who is on a roll.
The one team I probably did not give enough credit to is Alabama. They will be pretty good.
On the other hand LSU has Lester and he is always a good bet to screw things up.
OSU has money and talent they just can’t beat good teams.
FSU could use some more talent sure but we are looking pretty good as far as two deep goes anyway.
If FSU does not win more than five games come on down to Orlando and steaks are on me. I once again make the offer to log on as retardnole.
I'm no Les Miles fan
OSU can’t beat ELITE teams, but they do fine against good teams. We haven’t been Elite in at least half a decade.
I think FSU wins 8 games, and if they do not, I think they win 7, 9, 6, 10, 5, 4, 11, or 3 (in that order, with the slight variance at the end due to a possible injury).
That’s not counting any ACCCG or Bowl game (hopefully BCS).
GO NOLES!
Oh, and if we win 11 of 12 in the regular season, steaks on me (for you, not the whole board).
O. K.
I would say the chances of FSU winning 11 are about 99% better than winning five.
When the season gets underway I will explain more about what a 3 year seasoned Trickett line is all about. Couple that with a healthy Ponder and Jermaine Thomas and I almost feel sorry for the beatings some of our opponents are going to take.
You're assuming Ponder and Thomas are healthy.
Ponder did not stay healthy last year, suddenly it’s a given he will this year?
Thomas got hurt in limited action last year, but he can carry the full load (that’s what … errr… nevermind) this year?
Nobody can guarantee health
That goes for any team though. Harvin (achilles last year and FSU was the only team that ever seemed to cause Tebow injuries} Broke his hand year before last.
Ponder and Thomas should be further along strength wise. Jones, Presley and the two freshman can’t all be injured at the same time. (At least I hope not). In a pinch they could throw Chris Thompson back there.
This is also Manuel’s second year. He should be far enough along to do alright if thrown in with a strong running game behind him. That is the key. If the running game is far enough along and I think it is, none of the quarterbacks will have to be Joe Montana to win.
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