Schedule light and pack your bags for the National Championship game
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 9:26 AM EDT
in FSU Football
116 comments
Yesterday in a discussion about scheduling, TomahawkNation.com member Fsujab and I had a discussion over whether an aggressive non-conference schedule is worth the risk.
My theory is that teams should play the weakest possible non-conference schedule, because it is the pre-season rankings combined with a 0 or 1 loss season that gets a team to the National Championship. Additionally, playing cupcakes allows teams to rest their starters, leaving them less exposed to injury. Further, playing bad non-conference teams forces the national championship contender to have a greater focus on the conference games, which could potentially be overlooked when balanced with a difficult non-conference schedule.
I decided to take a look at the past 14 BCS National Championship Game Participants and examine their non-conference schedules...
Let's first look at 2008
| UF | Oklahoma | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | Hawaii 7-7 | 1AA |
| Non-Con Game 2 | Miami 7-6 | Cincinnati 11-3 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | 1AA | @ Washington 0-12 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | FSU 9-4 | TCU 11-2 |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 23-16 | 22-17 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 3 | 2 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 2 | 2 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 16-10 | 11-15 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 1 | 1 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 7-7 | 11-2 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 1 | 1 |
As we will see, both of these squads played a more difficult schedule than the teams that follow, but neither played against anyone who deserved to play in a BCS bowl. Oklahoma, in particular, played their only road non-conference game against one of the worst teams in recent memory (Washington).
Let's now look at 2007.
| LSU | Ohio State | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | VT 11-3 | 1AA |
| Non-Con Game 2 | MTSU 5-7 | Akron 4-8 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | @ Tulane 4-8 | @ Washington 4-9 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | La Tech 5-7 | Kent State 3-9 |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 25-25 | 11-26 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 1 | 0 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 1 | 1 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 11-3 | 4-9 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 3 | 2 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 14-22 | 7-17 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 0 | 1 |
These two combined to beat a single non-conference bowl team. Ohio State's schedule was one of the worst we've seen in a long time. Credit LSU for playing a team that could at least play with the big boys, but the Tigers didn't play any out of state non-conference games. This will be a trend throughout.
Now to 2006
| Florida | Ohio State | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | So. Miss 9-5 | N. Ill 7-6 |
| Non-Con Game 2 | UCF 4-8 | @ Texas 10-3 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | 1-AA | Cincinnati 8-5 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | FSU 7-6 | Bowling Green 4-8 |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 20-19 | 29-22 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 2 | 3 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 1 | 2 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 7-6 | 18-8 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 2 | 2 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 13-13 | 11-14 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 1 | 0 |
The university of chicks with fat arms and guys with short denim didn't play much of a schedule and again, didn't leave the state in their non-conference. Ohio State played one of the most impressive slates by a national championship game participant in quote some time. Texas was very good and would have given most teams all they could handle.
Here's 2005
| Texas | USC | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | La Laf 6-5 | @ Hawaii 5-7 |
| Non-Con Game 2 | @ OHST 10-2 | Arkansas 4-7 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | Rice 1-10 | Notre Dame 9-3 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | 11 Gm Sched | Fresno State 8-5 |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 18-17 | 26-22 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 1 | 2 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 1 | 2 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 10-2 | 13-10 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 2 | 2 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 7-15 | 13-12 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 0 | 0 |
Both teams played one good team out of conference, and the rest was complete filler. That USC struggled with Fresno State was a harbringer of things yet to come.
How about 2004?
| USC | Oklahoma | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | @ Virginia Tech 10-3 | Bowling Green 9-3 |
| Non-Con Game 2 | Colorado State 4-7 | Houston 3-8 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | @ BYU 5-6 | Oregon 5-6 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | Notre Dame 6-6 | 11gm Sched |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 25-22 | 17-17 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 2 | 1 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 2 | 1 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 16-9 | 5-6 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 2 | 2 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 9-15 | 12-11 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 0 | 0 |
Oklahoma's schedule was particcularly horrific and no reasonable observer would argue that Bowling Green saved the Sooners. They went to the National Championship Game over Auburn because they started the season ranked number one and Auburn did not. USC must be given credit here, as they played two road games against non-conferene foes, including hopping a plane 4,000 Miles away to play @ Virginia Tech at night, where they promptly showed that Reggie Bush was just as good a reciever as he was a running back. I don't think it's insignificant that OU didn't play any bowl teams from the major conferences.
Finally, 2003
| LSU | Oklahoma | |
| Non-Con Game 1 | @ Washington 1-10 | 1-AA |
| Non-Con Game 2 | La. Laf 4-7 | Alabama 6-6 |
| Non-Con Game 3 | Tulana 5-6 | Fresno State 9-3 |
| Non-Con Game 4 | La. Tech 5-6 | @ UCLA 6-6 |
| Non-Conference Opponents Record | 15-29 | 21-15 |
| Bowl Teams Faced | 0 | 1 |
| BCS Conference Opponents | 1 | 2 |
| BCS Conference W/L | 1-10 | 12-12 |
| Non-BCS Opponents | 3 | 1 |
| Non-BCS Opponents W/L | 14-19 | 9-3 |
| 1-AA Teams faced | 0 | 0 |
And 2003 LSU wins the prize for the weakest non-conference schedule for a BCS Championship game participant. No bowl teams, and nobody that the Tigers weren't favored over by at least two touchdowns (and as many as 4 in the case of the Louisiana Junior Circuit). Oklahoma on the other hand at least attempted a difficult schedule. It's doubtful they knew that 'Bama would be on probation when they scheduled that game, or that UCLA would be in the midst of a down year as USC had begun to re-take Los Angeles just a few years prior.
The bottom line here seems to be that playing tough non-conference games doesn't do much to sway voters, and any sway that those games might provide is heavily outweighed by the potential for a loss, be it in those games, or in conference games that players overlook because their schedule is too much of a grind and it's difficult to have maximum focus multiple times a year. And speaking of grind, you might also have noticed that many of these teams stayed remarkably healthy throughout the season, including Oklahoma 2003, who didn't lose a single starter due to injury. Again, you can rest starters in blowout wins over bad teams. Injuries do not happen sitting on the bench.
Another message here is to avoid 1-AA teams. Voters seem to be averse to those who play the lower division schools. The key is to shell out the extra $300K payment that it takes to secure a garbage 1A school over a 1AA school. There's a good chance that the 1A school is actually worse than the 1A school, and the name recognition value it totally worth it.
Finally, if an athletic director is confident that his team will rank highly to start the season, he should drop any road games against likely bowl teams from the BCS conferences. That move is sure to be unpopular, but voters want to achieve self validation, and if their initial highly ranked teams are undefeated at season's end, they will not drop them, regardless of those school's scheduling cowardice.
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In the 2008 title participants' section (UF v. OU)
You said neither team played against BCS bowl participants, but OK played Cincy who lost to VT in the Orange Bowl. Perhaps I misread it or didn’t understand it. Great work otherwise, and I hope this doesn’t come off as nitpicking.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on May 29, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions
Great job FSUncensored
A couple things:
- when commenting on last year’s title game participant’s you say “but neither played against anyone who would play in a BCS bowl”. Cincinatti did play in the Orange Bowl against VT.
- I agree with your assertion whole heartedly, and to make make matters worse, we are beginning to see pollsters incorporate schedule into their pre-season rankings. This serves as an additional advantage for creating a cup-cake schedule. This is very dangerous!! For instance, Notre Dame is being ranked in many pre-season polls. Surely they will be better than last year, but most pollers mention their dilluted schedule next year. As you know, the AP Pre-Season poll is extremely impactful in regards to eventual positioning and penalization of losses during the season.
- Looking at Penn State’s OOC schedule this coming year is absolutely terrible.
PSU's sched
is terrible just about every year. They will try to get one decent opponent and 3 other terrible, terrible teams. They wont play any less than 7 home games, and try as hard as they can for 8 every year. I know a few years back Pitt tried to revive their series with PSU, and JoePa nixed it saying they didn’t want to lose the home games. I know they are playing ’Bama in the next year or two, but that will be complimented by 3 of the worst teams D-II has to offer.
As I’ve said on this board before, I’m married to a Nittany Lion with a ton of PSU friends, so this is a sore subject for me. They have a passionate fan base, but when I bring up stuff like this, most of them flip out and say I’m way too biased.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on May 29, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I can't even find their "decent" OOC opponent this coming year
4 OOC home games:
-Akron
-Temple
-Syracuse
-Eastern Illinois
Absolutely pathetic
Syracuse would have been decent...
in the ’80’s
I think playing a tougher schedule is not to go to the NC that year
I think its a strategy. in down years like what FSU and miami are going through you have to get the harder games. the goal is to win and end the year ranked. as you say the preseason rankings take you a long way. when you start of in the top 5 preseason the only thing a team should do is make a schedule just hard enough so that it looks like you played harder teams than you realy played. you go after teams in Conference USA, Mid-American, Sun Belt, and the WAC that did good but but realy suck. You are not going to call out BAMA, UO, or USC. Or try to get teams like Washington, Northwestern, Syracuse. These teams look better than FCS teams. (I think most FCS teams can beat Wash right now). If we make it out of this year with 9-4 with our schedule we could be looking at top 15 next year then with a little easyer schedule and go 10-3 or 11-2 we could be back in the top 10 for 2010-2011 and make a push for the NC when weh have all the peaces in the right place.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I guess we will see in 2012 when we play OU
If thats the year we have a chance to go to the NC and we still play OU.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
OU
we play them in ’10 and ’11. our non conference in 2012 is @USF, @WVU, v. AF, v. UF. Not light, but if WVU falls off like I think they will, its manageable.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on May 29, 2009 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
my bad I wasnt sure but still WVA is still the same almost
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
no way...
Stewart is running WVU into the ground. If he is still around then, I feel great about our chances, assuming we both continue to trend in the directions we have been lately. It wont be an easy game, but if you ask me today, in 2012 I’d much rather play @WVU than home against OU.
And here are the rest of our future Non-Conf games.
http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/fsu-m-footbl-sched-home-acc.html
it looks like we’ve slowed down in scheduling major non-conf games. most of the games listed have been scheduled for a few years.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on May 29, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
2010
You won’t often catch this optimism, but…
That’s a schedule that you can win with. 3 big games, and FSU will be decent favorites in all other 9. Now, can you beat OU, Miami, UF? Doubtful, but it is the year Tebow and Bradford leave.
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
We need to drop the @ WVU game
and get someone like Akron. Unnecessary road trip!
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I think a good balance of cupcakes and good teams works....
For every UF, you needs a Southern Miss…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
And this is exactly why they should have never removed the SOS component of the BCS formula. Instead we get to rely on the myth that the SEC is the strongest conference that has ever graced the football field. Rely on conference strength is incestuous. Just look at how overrated the Big XII is.
The pac-10 generally schedules tough non-conference opponents. To the point they got exposed last year by the Mountain West.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
That's actually true.
You need to check this out and spread it around.
http://accfootballreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/out-of-conference-report-08-at-regular_10.html
when a team is not ranked preseason
like Utah and they have a week conf and play teams like Michigan on a down year and Airforce. They didnt get the credit because they were in the Mout west. should thay have I dont know. I would like to know about the preseason rankings is how much is popularity vs talant vs STR of schedule. OSU started last year at #2 preseason and ended at #9 with a 10-3 record. why so high because they started #2. but you have Boise State that were not ranked to start go 21-1 and end they year at #11 (only loss to TCU in the bowl game by 1point) they have a week STR of schedule but like Utah its not a team you want to play for an Out of Conf game.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
But Utah plays in a non big-boy conference
Ditto Boise
They don’t have to focus on 80% of their games! They just roll out there and win based on talent alone. These guys would be middle of the pack in every other conference.
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the WAC being a non-big boy conference (check Hawaii in the sugar bowl), but I think the Mountain West is stronger than most people on the east coast give them credit for. Yes, they are top-heavy, and their bottom is rather bad, but are they really that much worse than the Big East?
I’m not going to jump to conclusions based on one season, but a few more seasons with similar success, and I think the notion of the Mountain West as a second-tier conference may begin to fade. I should also note, they will never be considered the best conference, they can only hope to move into the 5-7 range.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
I think there's a better chance that the Big East backslides into the 2nd tier
than the MWC comes into the 1st tier. Look at the big east programs. They lack the recruiting base, infrastructure, etc., to be a major conference.
agreed, the programs are also becoming a temp. gig for the good coaches.
Akron → Big East → Power Conference
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
he resisted the overtures this year, but I’m guessing (and this is complete speculation based on nothing really) he was holding out for a better deal/situation. Ditto for Greg Schiano (sp?), though Schiano has minor repair work to do on his rep.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
only because the ACC took BC, VT and mimai
I do have a thought. We want a playoff. What happens when the big east crumbles into nothing when Cinn or another school leaves and they go down to 7 or less teams. Then who gets the bowl bid. I think it would could light a spark.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
So do voters look at the wins vs SOS from the year before
or is most of it on popularity. If we do great next year will it help up for 2010. UF next year has Charleston Southern, Florida International, and FSU OOC games and are going in most likely 1# how could they not have and easyer road. There toughest game will be LSU and UGA. They could lose one of these games and still make it to the NC. Its like the winner from the SECCG and the best recored from the big-12 or big 10 and that how plays for the NC.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
In the late 70's and 80's we were the "anytime anywhere road warriors" because we were building up our program and reputation into one of national relevance.
Those days and that ranking system are history, long gone, and meaningless today. Most of our ACC opponents are good quality teams, add Florida to the schedule, and we need to add some gimmies to our schedule.
Personally, I like(hate) what UF did last year in scheduling The Citadel before the FSU game, and this year FIU the week before facing us, for all the obvious reasons. We should take a page out their book in the future and schedule one of our easier opponents the third week in November to rest, heal, and as a warm up to UF. But please, no bye week before UF.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Why no bye week?
Bye weeks, handled properly by good coaches are a huge gift.
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I could be wrong, but every game I remember us playing after a bye week,
I remember us being out of sync, sloppy, and losing many times. Again I could be wrong. This is just the impression I have from what my fried memory circuits remember, from watching or listening to, almost every game since 1978.
You did hit the nail on the head with your statement “Bye weeks, handled properly by good coaches are a huge gift.” You would think so, but the coaching aspect of it may have been our problem in the past, preparing the players and keeping them sharp, again if I remember correctly.
On the other hand, a 4-5 week “bye” before the bowl games, have been pretty successfull for us so far.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I would like a bye week for GT.
the more time to prepare for that damn option the better. With UF I think a cake team would be better right now. I also think the GT game is more importen than UF is at the moment.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
by Desman on May 29, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well... there are a lot of folks who think Bowden was a
Great recruiter and an average at best game/ prep coach.
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
After Bye recent history:
2002 (1-1)
Won at Maryland
Lost home vs Notre Dame
2003 (1-1)
Lost at home vs Miami
Won at Florida
2004 (0-0)
No bye week, lost it due to Hurricane postponing Miami matchup I believe
2005 (1-1)
Won at home vs Syracuse
Lost at Florida
2006 (0-1)
Lost at NC State
2007 (1-0)
Won vs Alabama at Jax
2008 (1-0)
Won at NC State
So over the last 7 years, we are 5-4 after Bye Weeks. Granted the competition has been tough, we haven’t necessarily seen a drastic improvement in play following a Bye Week.
Undefeated under Jimbo in bye weeks, for what it's worth
by Bud Elliott on May 29, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Althought the competition has been favorable for Jimbo
Alabama was just not a very good team in 2007 and we played NC State before they really got their groove and without Nate Irving. We also gave up like 42 yards a carry to the Wolfpack.
Thanks, I am glad my recollection/impressions of games after bye weeks was somewhat accurate. I am not as fried as I thought.
55% winning pct. over the past 7 years, after a bye week, shows that something is not right, somewhere. (Rhetorical/sarcastic statement that does not need to be re-examined)
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I think it all boils down to how you want to win... and be remembered.
It’s true that the easiest path is often the shortest, and quickest way to get what you want, but it may not always be the best, or even the most memorable.
I think scheduling daisy-pickers cheapens the ultimate pay-off a bit.
I’ve always liked associating myself with a program that isn’t afraid to play anyone, anywhere and I would not like to see them join the popular movement of playing subpar competition as a means to an end…
I understand where Uncensored is going with this article and his logic is flawless, but I have to throw my lot in with the “style points” arguement for this discussion.
This is in the end simply a game. I like watching the Seminoles win and I especially like watching them beat teams the announcers heavily favor (which seems to be the case more often than not from this biased opinion). With that in mind, I would rather see us beat Alabama, UF, Michigan, and USC (the real one) as our out of conference opponents and see us go down as the greatest team in history… than see us whoop up on 2 double A’s and 2 washington’s every year in a snoozer race to the BCS championship.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
by Nattylite on May 29, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Totally agree Natty
If you were a PSU season ticket holder living in DC, would you drive all the way to State College to watch their 4 non-conference games…..doubt it!
I am pumped for BYU, SOuth Florida, and Florida this year. Totally agree with this post Natty.
I'd rather beat the best in the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Half the battle is getting there. Just because some of the schools we play aren’t name schools, that doesn’t mean they aren’t very talented and well coached.
http://accfootballreport.blogspot.com/2008/12/out-of-conference-report-08-at-regular_10.html check that link out.
I love beating teams announcers heavily favor, but sometimes you have to play it smart. Scheduling that way puts you behind the 8 ball and it is just against the house. Attrition will come up and bite those noble schedulers.
Nobody remembers 10-2 seasons with wins over 6 bowl teams. National Championships matter. Confetrence championships matter.
I think we both agree with you
Just saying we enjoy the actual games/process better when we take all-comers.
Since we don't have anational championship type team this year
I am super psyched about this schedule.
Exactly! :)
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
"I'd rather beat the best in the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME"
Yes, but how do you know they are really the best IF they weren’t truly tested throughout the year.
Did they just get lucky? …raise your hand if you really think Ohio State was better than that Miami squad they won against in overtime…
There would be no questions like these if all your games were juggernauts.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
No way
110% disagree.
The game should not have been close, but even though it was… Miami got shafted.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
As much as I loathe the Big 10
Look at the NFL talent that came off both squads. Also, game coaching matters and Tressel > Coker. OSU roped Miami into playing the buckeye’s game.
Do you honestly think that Texas team was better than USC? I don’t, but football is a single event sport.
I think Vince Young was better than that USC team
But even more than that, I think all of these “side discussions” about who was better than who wouldn’t exist if all the teams concerned had played balls to the wall OOC schedules.
As it stands, and as it has been well documented in this thread, each of these 4 examples played a weak schedule outside their respective conferences…
Had OSU played 4 teams… lets just say: LSU, FSU, West Virginia, and Tennessee that year (and beat them all) I wouldn’t have a leg to stand on about them beating Miami in overtime. As it stands now – I think OSU had the weakest OOC schedule of the two and the most luck in the actual game.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
All in all...
That leads me to say that wasn’t a very impressive National Championship year.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
I meant that Ohio State is an example of a team not being tested
And then getting killed in the NC game…
"We're not maxed out, ... The best is still ahead of us."
Bobby Bowden
Ohio St. in 06 & 07 illustrated both ways of earning a spot in the National Championship game.
In 06 they definitely earned it. Going into the game they were the undisputed #1. They went undefeated, beat fellow undefeated Michigan, and beat a good Texas team.
In 07, they were untested, they were underwhelming in their victories, and everyone knew they would get demolished by whomever played them.
In both cases, they lost horribly, thus most people think they should have never been there in the first place. But in 06, they did earn their spot.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
This is where a playoff would fix all these problems.
Play some cupcakes during the season, beat your conference foes and you’re in. From there you get a wild mix of great and varying teams from year to year. It assures you that if someone wins the national championship, they did not have to beat just 1 quality team to do it.
Love it, Natty.
You’re not posting enough lately. Natty just laid out what it means to be a Nole fan for a lot of us. This is how we grew up. And the fact of the matter is that Florida State fans demand at least one big non-conference game on the schedule besides Florida. We just won’t tolerate an OOC schedule like Penn State’s. It was IN THIS THREAD that we most recently took pleasure in sitting around and laughing at it. And of course everything Uncensored said is right, but I don’t think anyone doubts that an easier OOC = a better opportunity at an NC, if you can begin the season in shouting distance of the #1 ranking. But FSU’s always going to have to go after that NC with an extra hurdle if they want to continue to sell renew interest in season tickets and keep the fanbase onboard. I doubt Uncensored disagrees with this, and I’m sure a lot of us can agree that trips to BYU are thankfully off the radar for the foreseeable future. It doesn’t benefit us at all to travel to Provo. I disagree on the idea of abondoning a home-and-home with West Virginia, however. To me, that’s a perfect home-and-home scenario. Eliminate the home-and-“home” with Air Force. That’s a disaster. Give me Florida, an upper-mid- to high-profile opponent, and two Div. 1-A cupcakes everytime, and I’d be happy.
TRM my friend
I will try to be on a little more often now. My schedule is getting re-adjusted a bit.
Still busy as hell, but then again, aren’t we all.
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
I want to be remembered as a national title winner...you always play a good team...
in the title game
Yeah, right!
excellent post
Ive been talking about this subject extensively on a gambling message board and you made all the points that took a few people about a week to discuss.
Playing against 1AA teams is flat-out embarassing, regardless of win or loss. It does not help a program, even when completely maximizing their effectiveness against these obscenely weak teams.
It would make sense that injuries are more common against strong opponents, but is it fact? Our program was not helped, but were our players supported by AA opponents?
againsttheline.com forum is pretty much dead as of two weeks ago
probably only 10 or 15 people that regularly post, and the guy who started ALL the good conversations was recently re-banned for relentless insults, after being banned for threatening someone’s family a few years ago. Its a love-hate situation, because he really moved the conversations along in an interesting way, but civility was thrown out the window sooooo long ago.
by NorthernHaze on May 29, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Therx was great between 2002 and 2006ish
but it’s gone downhill. The pro gambler has been largely phased out. Were you around for betpanam and betbluemarlin and the rest of those books run by guys with 10 million and a laptop out of CR or GB?
nah im a newbie
I didn’t get into football until 2007, when I was already a senior at FSU. Ive still never been to a game (except this last spring scrimmage), which is hard for me to believe, considering how much time I have spent luvin’ FSU football these past two years. I just joined againsttheline to learn the gambling language and I got caught up in the anti-FSU banter.
by NorthernHaze on May 29, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have data on it, but...
If you’re winning big and you pull you starters, that decreases the chance you get injured.
Playing= opportunity for injury. Increased amount of playing by starters = increased opportunity for injury to starters, no?
not to get off topic, but we should do a Section to discuss
Total win over/unders heading into the season….whenever those numbers become available.
It’s always fun to predict before the season starts
at first glance
injuries are probably a product of a number of variables, such as playing time, team conditioning, team medical care, effective player technique, and I would guess a few other things. If you had enough data to work with it would probably not be too difficult to figure the probability of a team having x number of injuries. Youve probably touched on this in past posts, like the ACL injury post.
by NorthernHaze on May 29, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, of course
I was thinking in year-to-year terms. As in, could we accurately predict the number of injuries for a 2010 NC run
I don’t think college football needs a playoff, as not having one generates a ton of talk, but polls should not be taken until 4 or 5 games are in the books. The data would be interesting but I would assume you have almost a 0% shot at making the title game if you are ranked outside the top 15 to start the year.
FYI: the USC/VTech game was played at FedEx field in DC.
As a Pac-10 Person
I have a few thoughts (don’t worry I’m not a troll):
1) A cupcake schedule only works if you are already an established power, otherwise you never get respect in the polls.
2) I think college football has arrived at a point where a one-loss team will usually make the NC game, thus one marquee won’t be the end of your season (and by marquee, I mean a loss to another establishd power).
3) Most teams in the running for the national championship need at least one high profile game late in the season. Usually, the game becomes a de facto playoff to separate the NC contenders from the BCS game contenders (see Oklahoma vrs TT/Okie St & Florida vrs Alabama)
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
1. True, but what non-established powers have a legit shot at the MNC anyway?
2. BCS CG participants:
Undefeated:
2006 OSU
2005 USC
2005 TEX
2004 USC
2004 OU
2002 Miami
2002 OSU
2001 MIA
2000 Oklahoma
1999 FSU
1999 VT
1998 Tenn
In 11 years of championship existence, 12 of 22 BCS champ participants have been undefeated entering the game.
3. They do, but you just mentioned conference games there.
1) Very true
2) I remember reading an article from Stewart Mandel after signing day, and he talked about how more and more recruits are using playing time as a determining factor in their decisions (the talent pool will be less consolidated). Combined with an increase in parody across the spectrum of college football, I believe that upsets will become a more common occurrance. Hence, less undefeated seasons.
3) You are right, I was trying to stay away from some obvious ACC-SEC match-ups because I believe everyone else on this site is probably more knowledgable with regards to ACC-SEC match-ups, and I try to stay away from making claims on subjects I don’t know much about. I guess I was suggesting, schools should look into scheduling bigger OOC games to late in the year.
There is more risk, but also more reward.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
Quite rarely is there a need to be the best undefeated team
But we’ve constantly seen the need to be the most impressive one-loss team, and to that effect, maybe team with a hard but not insane schedule should look to push from Hard to Very hard, by bringing in a late season game. This works better for the Big10, Pac10, and BigEast, who don’t play conference championship games.
Even more to your point
Florida almost has a pass on one loss this season. With the perception of the SEC being the best conference, the campaign for a 2nd heisman for Tebow and the SEC\ESPN contract causing a lovefest for all things SEC, UF can already lose a game and not drop from top 5.
Unless they lose to one of the scrubs on their schedule,
(Charleston So., FIU, Vandy, Troy), you are 100% correct. One loss to any of the other teams they play and they don’t drop much futher than 5th and could possibly play again for the NC. I only hope there are at least 3, 4, or more, undefeated teams next season to throw the BCS a curveball. Even if they are the best team, I am a petty jealous person, and I want to see them get locked out somehow, as unlikely as that may be.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I doubt they would survive a loss to us in the last week of the season...
unless the SEC West team they would play in the SEC championship was highly ranked. I would trade an ACC championship for knocking UF out of the title gase, as far as a “successful season” goes. Man, just the thought of being able to knock the out makes me smile… One can dream right?
I too would take that trade in a Tally minute. In fact I would be willing to go 7-6 for that satisfaction.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Also upon reviewing your numbers to point 2, half of the one-loss teams to get into the championship game happened in the past 3 seasons, perhaps a trend?
side note: At first glance I thought 2006 was last year, damn, I’m getting old.
We all dream of being a child again, even the worst of us, the worst... perhaps... most of all.
I'm not sure
I don’t feel confident making a decision.
Your point about early playing time is a good one, and I will use it to mention that nobody played more freshmen last year than FSU (22)!
but what sucks is when the big 12 and SEC have 4+ teams ranked
When they get to the meat of there games thats all they really need for that powerhouse game. UF vs LSU or there champ game. OU vs UT, PSU VS WIS or OSU and such. Now when you are Utah then you need to go get some meat. As FSU need we need some games but we play the ACC and then UF thats all we really need even if UF goes into a slop like us right now its still UF. WE are still FSU and Miami is still miami. Hell ND is ranked 17th for some stupied reason and they suck.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
First Post Here
Hey guys as you can see this is my first post. I have been reading the posts on the site for a while now and want you all to know that the reason I joined was because of your respect for each other. I don’t ever see posts on here bashing one another which is different and also very welcoming.
Anyways my question is about football and not directly related to the topic but I wanted your opinion. I have always wondered while watching football games why when the away team calls a time out in any situation the fans automatically go silent. Usually the team calls the time out because they can’t hear or don’t know what they are doing. I don’t know how this could be done other than word of mouth or blaring music, but for once I would like to see FSU fans stay loud and try to further distract the opponent no matter who it is.
Just some food for thought and something I have always wondered. Thanks guys
Welcome, PJVNolefan
Glad you decided to join up. I really like the sort of community feel we have here. I think we maintain that for a few reasons. First, there is a certain level of maturity with most posters, and they have an understanding of the game of football not only on the field, but also organizational aspects that the average fan might not. That comes from having a certain national awareness, and that’s why we sometimes write articles that address the national collegiate landscape as well as the Noles.
Do you mean cheer during the opposing team’s timeout? Or do you mean cheer once that team comes out of the timeout (resuming the previous intensity)?
yea i know and understand that, but I think it could be helped by blaring music and I also think its doable for a bunch of drunk college students.
To what effect?
Also, if you hit the “reply” button, your post will appear like mine does, offset to denote what post you’re responding to.
In my experience
Especially being one of those “drunk college students” in my time at FSU… timeouts were a welcome moment to rest the vocal chords and run get another $7.50 coke to fill up halfway with the liquor we had stashed in our socks, hoodies, tighty-whiteys (for those who go that route… i prefer loosey lucys – but that’s another story)
It’s impossible to yell the entire game as I have tried and failed many times… Not out of lack of commitment but for the inevitible realization that if you yell correctly… your voice gives out. Or you black-out….
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
I'm pretty sure I blacked out too
But not from yelling… (ah, those were the days… to be young and dumb again)
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Things were different back then and we didn't have the corcerns, cares, or knowledge about sex, drugs/alcohol, and rock and roll.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I always got strange looks from the vendors as why I was requesting the cup full of ice and only half full of coke.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Hahaha! I hear you
'Gentlemen, it is better to have died a small boy than to fumble this football.' John Heisman
Long white athletic socks, one large flask in each sock until you passed security, then hand them off and into my girlfriends purse.
This is nothing to brag about, but during my first year it was a small flask, then a large one, finally by graduation time it was 2 large ones. One and a half for me and half for my girlfriend and future wife. As I have stated previously, the drinking age was 18 back then and we would not drive, we would walk (stagger) back to our apts.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Let's say our team is on D and we are yelling and shouting, banging on our seats, stomping our feet,
causing the other team to call a time out because of confusion or they can’t hear. Well that is a huge moral victory for our side and us fans think we are responsible and might be making a diff in the outcome of the game. During this TO, speaking only for myself, I need to take a break to take a drink and catch my breath. In college the band usually strikes up during a TO. In the pro game they usually play music over the loudspeaker, and then it is time to check out the (your teams name here-Dolphins) Cheerleaders gyrating to the music (yea I know I am a perv). I would say when the other team gets back to the line of scrimmage, the fans usually resume with the same intensity (drink) as before the TO. At least that is my POV and experience. At Doak however, it rarely gets loud enough for my taste. I think this may have something to do with the number and age of the boosters who unlike the students, will not turn it up a notch in the yelling and yelping department. But I think the band playing is the real answer to your question.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Right. And you need that 40 second rest.
If you want to be proactive, watch the tv timeout guy (umpire with red hat). When he waves his arm, stand up and start yelling to ensure that everyone will be up and yelling as the opposing team comes out of the timeout.
Agreed. When play clock is rolling is the time to get loud.
My amount of noise generation is simply not sustainable beyond those 40 seconds. I turn my body to a 45-degree angle of the action, stomp on my seat, scream a sustained, 90-decibel “OHHHHHHHH”, and I’ve been told I clap loudly. I often change directions and switch feet because my feet ache from the pounding on metal.
We need to drop the @ WVU game
No we need to beat them 100-0.
I have been telling a mounty for two years that FSU was going to tear their arms off and beat them to death with them.
http://www.southernpigskin.com/index.php/forums/viewthread/2114/
I was about to say
this program was built way back when by going on the road and taking on all comers, not trying to slide by, and when jimbo takes over it will be that way again , he has that fire in his eyes we havent seen in bb’s eyes for some time
by realnole1128 on May 29, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
but back then from what I understand
we had to play anyone and everyone because when we started or BB started he wanted to take FSU to the top. Thats almost what I think we have to do right now. It would only take about 2 years to be right back on top. year 1 go 10-3 then the next 11-2 or 12-1 and we are back. After that College football live will be all over us and so will ESPN.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
You won't believe this one.
http://www.pcsoweb.com/InmateBooking/SubjectResults.aspx?id=1355642
Brought to me by one of my mounty buddies.
AJ always was one of our most prominent thugs. Let's just keep this buried and among ourselves, OK.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Quick thoughts
FSU has a two way street with scheduling major OOC games. First, besides Miami, what other ACC game do we play that will guarantee national attention? I think we all agree the trip to Provo is a facepalm worthy decision. However, FSU needs a 2nd major OOC game besides UF in order to stay in the national picture.
Second is the ticket situation. Another home game besides UF or Miami is a huge boost to ticket sales for the school.
"The worst kind of non-smokers are the ones that come up to you and cough. That's pretty cruel isn't it? Do you go up to cripples and dance too?"-Bill Hicks
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by Jonathan Loesche on May 29, 2009 10:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I dont think so
UF is a great OOC game then as the ACC is right now BC and VT or GT right now too. OK what would happen if FSU would have went 12-0 this year. one we beat clemson, GT, WF, BC, VT, and UF all were ranked I think. Why would we need 2 OOC games. As for ticket sells well I think there is more to it than the game. there is not as much money in the panhandle of FL like central and SoFl so
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
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