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ESPNs Heather Dinich Pens (mostly) Accurate Florida State Article, Sun Still Rises

Allow me to preface this by saying that Heather has a difficult job in covering all 12 ACC teams.  I believe that ESPN's blogger format sets her up for failure, such that much of the content on her blog is already known to the diehard fans who would read a college football blog.  She's simply stretched too thin.  While we've criticized her work in the past, she recently wrote a (mostly) accurate article on the Noles.  Plenty of reasons for FSU to contend in '09 - ACC - ESPN  Let's take a look (Inside).....

Star-divide

In the article, she goes on to list some reasons why FSU will be a good football team this year.

Recruiting: Forget what the Noles don't have at wide receiver for a minute, and look at who's coming to help. The staff is hoping receivers Rodney Smith (6-6) and Willie Haulstead (6-4) can contribute immediately. Haulstead, a speedy athlete who is ranked the No. 32 wide receiver at his position by ESPN.com's Scouts Inc., caught 45 passes for 648 yards and 13 touchdowns as a junior at Titusville. He's the kind of player who can rack up the "yards after catch" stat. And Smith, straight out of Miami, was rated the No. 20 receiver by ESPN.com. As a bonus, his GPA was well over a 3.0 at Archbishop Carroll high school. There should be a Jarmon Fortson-type player in this class who can help (Fortson, as some of you might remember, caught a 42-yard pass against the Gators. Not bad for a freshman.)

This is, well, this is sort of accurate.  Willie Haulstead has decent speed, but a simple read of his ESPN recruiting profile reveals that "speedy athlete" might not be the best way to describe Willie:  "Haulstead's greatest attributes are his size, run after catch ability and his natural feel for adjusting to the ball while it is in the air.  Haulstead in our opinion has just adequate speed and may find it much more difficult to separate and run by people as a route runner in college than he does in high school. Lacks explosiveness and sudden burst to pull away from elite speed guys if in a footrace."  Now, the point of this isn't to  bag on Willie Haulstead, but rather that if your track record is to mess up player's names and positions, you should at least read the recruiting profile before discussing a recruit you've never seen play.

As for her evaluation of Smith, he is from Miami (check), was rated the #20 wide receiver by ESPN.com (this proved she knows these evaluations exist!), and did have a 3.0. Let's move on.

Coaching: Mickey Andrews and Jimbo Fisher are two well-respected, demanding coordinators who know how to get the most out of what they have. Andrews' defense lost six starters, but over the past five seasons, FSU's defense has been amongst the best in the nation in total defense. Last year, FSU ranked No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss and sixth in pass defense. Now that Fisher is entering his third season, the players should be accustomed to his expectations and philosophy. During his tenure, FSU's running game improved from 103rd in 2006 to 33rd in 2008. Odds are it will be the backbone of the offense again. If this staff can come together for what might be Bobby Bowden's final season, and keep the players focused and disciplined, it will go a long way in determining how they finish November.

Andrews is well respected for his career achievements, but he's not hosting any coaching clinics nowadays.  Nobody is flocking to learn from Mickey Andrews, unless they're doing so in a time machine.  At least Dinich notes that the 'Noles were good by the measure of total defense.  You'll remember when I wrote this as part of an analysis of the 'Noles defense:  

"Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, many fans still believe last year's defense was an elite unit.  It's not that these fans are dumb or lazy.  They just don't know what to look for.   The defense had good total numbers last year, finishing 2nd in the ACC in yards allowed,  but that's not the important stat.  Why?  Total defense doesn't account for how many times the opponent had the ball, which is as much a function of a team's offense as it is a team's defense.  Simply put, FSU's offense held the ball for long stretches last year, averaging the 2nd most time per game in ACC play.  In fact, FSU's defense faced the second fewest offensive plays per ACC game.  It is much easier to have a "good defense" if your defense faces fewer plays per game than everyone else, if you define "good defense" in terms of total defense.  The mainstream media is just catching on to this, but I expect Tomahawk Nation readers to understand that yards per play is a much better measure than total defense."

So, where were we?  Oh, yes, using coach's reputations rather than looking at meaningful results, like Jimbo Fisher winning ACC offensive coordinator of the year in spite of the youngest offensive line in the country, and averaging the most points in ACC play.  

Competition:  Dinich does nail this in conference, but she doesn't point out that the 'Noles have the toughest schedule in the country.  11 of the 12 made bowls last year.  She also doesn't mention that FSU avoids Duke and Virginia from the other division, while an Atlantic foe like NC State gets a freebie win against Duke. 

Quarterback:  Dinich does a great job discussing what she knows and doesn't just guess.  Excellent.

Running Game: Dinich does a great job discussing what she knows and doesn't just guess.  Excellent. 

Offensive Line: Dinich does a great job discussing what she knows and doesn't just guess.  Excellent. 

 

Overall, it's about as good as we can expect from someone who never played the game and is tasked with collecting links on a whole twelve teams.

 

Poll
September 19th @ BYU...
BYU will be favored by 7 points, winning about 75% of the time
4 votes
BYU will be favored by 5 points, winning about 68% of the time
5 votes
BYU will be favored by 3 points, winning about 59% of the time
8 votes
This game will be a "pick'em" (Line of 0, each team wins 50% of the time)
23 votes
Florida State will be favored by 3 points, winning about 59% of the time
52 votes
Florida State will be favored by 5 points, winning about 68% of the time
51 votes
Florida State will be favored by 7 points, winning about 75% of the time
43 votes

186 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments |

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Comments

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"Last year, FSU ranked No. 1 in the nation in tackles for loss and sixth in pass defense."

A casual fan reading this would perceive our defense differently than myself, who watched them from the stands last year.
I’m not negative, just realistic. The article about YPP vs. Total Defense is important. Articles for the casual fan merely cherry pick the numbers that stick out.

by The K-Man on Jun 3, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Oh, Heather...

You are a riddle, in a gift box of mystery, wrapped up with a dainty little bow of enigma.

"The other day I... uh, no, that wasn't me." - Steven Wright

by O-Town Nole on Jun 3, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Calling it now

I’m going out on a limb and saying the D has better “numbers” at the end of the year. Not because they are better, just because things seem to be falling in line for them. Better running game means a long TOP for the Noles so the defense is on the field less time. I think the offense also puts up more points, leaving other teams in a position where they need to score quickly. Several of the opponents this year are either breaking in new offenses (Miami), new QBs (Clemson and BC), or lost a lot of production (UNC).

So perhaps the blitz happy scheme MA runs, combined with the other factors, means the D will look better than last year.

by osceolafan850 on Jun 3, 2009 8:40 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think even Duke is a freebie win anymore.

Cutcliffe is turning that program around already. Duke had their first win over an ACC opponent in 4 years (UVA), and managed to beat Navy and Vanderbilt. Cutcliffe almost matched former head coach Ted Roof’s four year win total in one year. Duke also lost a heartbreaker to WF in OT.

by FSUjab on Jun 3, 2009 9:29 AM EDT reply actions  

They lost something like 35 scholarship Seniors

It’s gonna take a year for Cutt’s new recruits to get ready. I love David Cutcliffe, he’s extremely well respected, his schemes are sound and he is a good coach (despite having one bad year at Ole Miss), but this will take some time. He took over a good (considering it was Duke) situation last year.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 3, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Addition by subtraction?

If he won 4 games with Roofies bad recruits, what will he be able to do with his own guys? I’m not saying he’ll win the NC at Duke, I just don’t think that game is as much of a joke as it once was. Cutcliffe has brought some immediate credibility to that program.

by FSUjab on Jun 3, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

But those guys were mostly redshirt senior types

Physically mature guys. The types he gets at Duke aren’t very talented and will be 18 years old.

I think Duke wins 1 or 0 ACC games this year. A definite rebuilding year. Outside shot at 2 ACC wins.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 3, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interestingly,

Cutcliffe signed 24 guys rated as a 70 or higher by ESPN for Duke’s ‘09 class. That’s as many 70 rated players as Duke had IN THE LAST THREE YEARS COMBINED.

Yes, they may be rebuilding this year, but Cutcliffe reeled in as much talent in one year as Roof did in three. I give Duke an 80% chance of winning one ACC game and about a 50% chance of winning two. (how ’bout that for percentages :)

BTW, Cutcliffe has 6 guys committed for ’10. ALL OF THEM are rated a 75 or higher by ESPN and one is a 150 watch guy. Watch out for Duke in a couple years for sure.

by FSUjab on Jun 3, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can't refute that fact

But I will say that ESPN rated probably 200% more players last year then in those years you’re comparing it to.

I think that’s fair.

by Bud Elliott on Jun 3, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just re: the poll

I voted for pickem just because I’m using that as teh -2.5 to +2.5 point spread spot and say the -3 or +3 spots go up to the next level in the poll etc.

I see the game being a 1-2 point line. Not sure yet who will be favoured, that to be determined by the first couple of games.

by RishiM on Jun 3, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Well I dont the we had an elite unit

I think we had an everett brown. 253 thats how many points wers scored agenst FSU last year. That dont sound ELITE. That sounds like it sucks and 2 of those games were 1AA games. and those were the good games.

Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry

by Desman on Jun 4, 2009 1:11 AM EDT reply actions  

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