Divisional and Conference Odds Now Up!
I want to emphasize that we don't endorse gambling at this site, and anything on here is for entertainment purposes only. If you followed us last year, you did quite well with your fake wagers: Updated for Bowls: For Entertainment Purposes Only: Overall 251-190 (57%) +41.0, using only single unit wagers.
With that out of the way, initial plays:
Clemson to win the ACC +1000
VTech to win the Coastal +175
Nebraska to win the Big 12 North +175
Ole Miss to win the West: +350
Rutgers to win the Big East +500
If you happen to live in a country where it's legal to play, remember that the Max is $500 U.S., so scale accordingly.
I'll have a big writeup on this tomorrow.
over 2 years ago
Bud Elliott
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So for educational purposes
Please forgive the ignorance here but is there a breakdown somewhere you would suggest that would help someone (me) understand what this means?
For instance, I take it that +1000 means it is highly unlikely that Clemson wins the ACC? Is that like saying it is a 1000 to 1 chance? and thus return if they did?
What’s the 251-190 (57%) +41.0 mean?
tia
Actually,
+1000 means you’d net $1000 dollars for every $100 wagered. It’s essentially Ten to One.
I think Clemson has an equal shot with FSU to win the division, and an equal shot as FSU to win the ACC, but FSU’s odds are significantly worse, thus taking Clemson.
What’s the 251-190 (57%) +41.0 mean?
251 Wins
190 Losses
57% Winning Percentage
+41.0 = 41 Units. You wager one “unit” per game. A lot of people call $100 a “unit”, but really a unit doesn’t have any accepted definition, other than your typical wager amount.
This stuff is way beyond me.
Although I’d probably have a better chance winning money betting on sports than playing the stock market…
Colt McCoy + Sam Bradford + Tim Tebow -240 To win Heisman
-240 really sucks, but to me, this is almost a sure bet.
Someone would be tempted to throw a ton of units on this….
Phil Steele the Vegas oddsmaker
Has a poll with FSU winning the Atlantic with a runaway 46.10 % of the vote and Clemson a distant 12.60 . He is usually pretty good but has FSU rated #34 way behind Miami and Clemson. He will fail miserably this season.
Clemson was picked to win it last year also. ESPN had FSU 3rd behind Clempson and Wake.
http://www.philsteele.com/fbsinfo/Polls/FBSPolls.html
Now if Vegas comes out with something like FSU finishing #34 I am going to max out the credit card. Polls are not very reliable.Your best yardstick is simply listening to Fisher and Trickett. Trickett says he will have the best line in college football in 2010. That means he expects a pretty good one this year.
Fisher has indicated in the past FSU would play for a national championship in three or four years. This is year 3. Who you gonna call ghostbusters or listen to these coaches?
Now at team according to Massey ratings finishing #16 last year and winning games is not going to do worse with an experienced quarterback coming in behind a very good offensive line. FSU lost little of any import last season in my opinion. Certainly nothing that can’t be replaced.
Wide receiver depth is probably the biggest worry. If this offense stays on the field this year as I believe it will, the defense should hold up well.
That poll isn't done by him
It’s done by voters who come by his site.
Steele has Clemson winning the division. It’s in the magazine. It’s on his site.
Who does Clemson have at WR besides for Jacoby Ford?
Also, I think Clemson’s OL “experience” is different from ours.
Our OL were very young and still performed at a high level throughout the year. Clemson’s guys gained experience, but didn’t play well at all. I’m not sold on Jamie Harper being a North-South runner, and Andre Ellington runs like Spiller, but slower.
They are going to start a QB that has no experience, either Parker or Korn.
I agree they have just as much talent as us overall, and their Defense will be very strong.
I am just not sold on their offense being consistent enough to get to a BCS game.
Dye high 4* Junior
Jones high 4* soph
Mcneal 5* frosh
Rendrick taylor is a greg jones cornelious ingram type athlete
Also, I think Clemson’s OL "experience" is different from ours.
Our OL were very young and still performed at a high level throughout the year. Clemson’s guys gained experience, but didn’t play well at all
3 of 5 were lost for the season in the 1st 5 games. They started 9 guys on their line. They are very talented. If we start McMahon, I’d even go as far as to call them as good as us.
I’m not sold on Jamie Harper being a North-South runner
He only lost 3 yards on 34 carries behind the patchwork line. I’m very very convinced that we whiffed on this kid. He’ll hurt us.
They are going to start a QB that has no experience, either Parker or Korn.
Both are very talented players, the chance is that one WILL play pretty well.
I agree they have just as much talent as us overall, and their Defense will be very strong.
I am just not sold on their offense being consistent enough to get to a BCS game.
I think they have the 3rd best defense in the whole country. I think we’ll have about the 30th. In the ACC, if you play NFL ball (ultra conservative, defense, field position), you’ve been successful. Eventually, that’ll stop because teams like FSU or Miami will just be better than folks and play offense AND defense, but for my money, not this year.
I think we are as good as Clemson and give us a decent shot to win the division, but Clemson has the better schedule to win the division. We’re going to get beat up this year- badly. We do not have quality depth because while Jeff Bowden was busy being one of the worst coaches ever, Tommy was busy killing his dad and brother in recruiting. Those players, from 2006 and 2007 are now Seniors and Juniors, and their veteran talent is much better than ours. Playing at home, getting a bye week before us, and getting to play UVA gives Clemson the edge for the division.
I initially would play them for the division at +350, but +1000 are much better odds relative to value.
If you think Clemson has as good a shot as FSU to win the division, you play Clemson because they present a ton of value.
Also scared of Jamie Harper
I remember seeing him run with speed, power, and agility in that All-Star game last spring and thinking, “Crap, I wish we had him”. He had a sick run that he ended by front flipping into the end zone. I’m also convinced that he avoided Tallahassee because his ball & chain high school girlfriend lived here. Can’t blame the dude.
I love our running backs now, but Jamie looked like a sure-fire pro prospect coming out of high school.
Stop making me feel stupid :)
All good points, but I still think that you are thinking very optimistically for their QB and OL.
Parker’s been playing baseball, ala DVO. Korn may be one of the most over-rated QB recruits in years……I would love for them to cart him out as a starter.
How nice would it have been to have gotten Brandon Thompson? Kid grew up in Thomasville if I’m not mistaken. Man our DT recruiting has been killing us. Now we have to face him.
And BT is slated to start
We really could have used him. Right now, our defensive success is really predicated on Moses McCray. If he can’t get it done, then we will be back to this:
I could be overrating their QB, but I do think they will be better than Harper was.
I don’t understand Korn’s 5* rating, but if he gets his mechanics fixed up after surgery, he should be at least good.
I think the size off our LB's will help defend the rush this year
If Bradham “figures it out” it will do a ton for our defense.
I do too. FSU can win this division.
But if we lose to Clemson, we need to be a full game better than them, which means we need Miami AND GTech to beat them.
Ghostbusters
Fisher meant 3 or 4 years from when he is head coach.
Jimbo himself has told people inside the program that Clemson has more talent than we do and should be the favorite for the division, so I will listen to Jimbo.
FSU lost a ton. 6 defensive starters and the entire receiving corps.
Also Doc… schedule schedule schedule. We go TO CLEMSON. This team is going to be so banged up at the end of the year.
I’ll have a lot more answers tomorrow.
Right now, I’d say each have a 40% chance of winning, with NCST a 15% chance and anyone else a 5% chance.
What about the traditional underachievement by Clemson...
I know it’s not a Tommy Bowden team, but Swinney looks to be a TB clone.
Swinney is too raw to know much about his coaching style...
But here’s why I think he’s similar to TB:
1) he played as a receiver for AL when TB was the receiver’s coach there;
2) TB recruited him to coach at Clemson while Swinney was doing real estate after being fired at Alabama;
3) Swinney took over as receiver’s coach and later, recruiting (which was supposedly TB’s specialty);
4) TB recommended Swinney take over as head coach (allegedly).
Again, since Swinney was never an OC or DC, it’s probably too early to know Swinney’s coaching style. But we know that he was coached by TB, is a good recruiter like TB, and it’s probably safe to assume was heavily influenced by TB.
Clemson bet down to +500 from +1000 :)
I see your points in similar backgrounds, but from what I hear, Swinney is much more fiery. Tommy Bowden and Rob Spence read scripture to their team at halftime of the Wake Game (allegedly). They would consistently just pray for a better half. There was no sense of urgency as a coach under TB, and there apparently is now.
TB was a great recruiter because he got to the parents and made them feel safe, tried to be the 2nd father, etc. Swinney seems to be more of the “look, I’ll put you in the league type”, even though that seems preposterous since he hasn’t put anybody there yet.
Everyone is salivating over FSU's runnning game
When’s the last time that happened? Larry Key? Ever? I’m not old enough to remember this many eggs tossed in the ground game basket. Doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing.
The Greek gives us a lot more credit than the Sports Sites
Odds to win the 2010 BCS National Championship (Rankings from SI)
FSU +1800 #22
OK St +3000 #6
Ore +3000 #8
Bama +2000 #10
LSU +3000 #13
GT +5000 #14
UGA +5000 #15
PSU +5000 #16
Cal +5000 #20
According to The Greeks odds, we currently have better odds of winning than these teams. Not saying we are better, but they are expecting us to be much improved over 08. The odds makers factor schedule, fan base, loyalty (homer betting UF and OSU get these not us anymore) and other factors. With UF on our schedule and a weak ACC they are moving us back near the top were we should be. I don’t see us with much of a chance this year but they think we are heading in the right direction.
Welcome, Eddie
That’s pretty wild. The chance we lose 0 or 1 games is probably something like +8500.
Penn State and Cal are worth a shot, but they’ve already been bet down from the +6000’s.
Glad to have you here!
Ole Miss...
What is the general consensus around here?
I think they are wildly undeserving of the hype they are getting/
Agreed!
But, at +350 I have to play them. LSU should not be +200, and they are, thus Ole Miss has the value.
I happen to buy into the hype this year
Jevan Snead is an elite QB in my opinion. They’ve got talent all over the field.
Check out their schedule as well:
Opponent* Result Record
Sept. 6, 2009 at Memphis
Sept. 19, 2009 SE Lousiana
Sept. 24, 2009 at South Carolina
Oct. 3, 2009 at Vanderbilt
Oct. 10, 2009 Alabama
Oct. 17, 2009 UAB
Oct. 24, 2009 Arkansas
Oct. 31, 2009 at Auburn
Nov. 7, 2009 Northern Arizona
Nov. 14, 2009 Tennessee
Nov. 21, 2009 LSU
Nov. 28, 2009 at Miss. State
Their OOC schedule is maybe worse than Penn State, which is saying something. They also miss Florida and Georgia. They get their tough games at home (Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas). At Auburn will be tough.
Bottom line, their schedule has more than a few gimmes to keep them focused on their big games.
I like them at +350 for sure.
10-2 sounds about right
They will probably lose 2 out of the:
at South Carolina
at Auburn
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Tennessee
9-3 at worst IMO
They will finish behind ARKY
@ BAMA
@ UGA
UF
@ OLE MISS
Georgia is way underrated. Much like Clemson. They now have experienced, talented lines and should hopefully not sustain major injuries. Senior QB who was a high 4* recruit who knows the system. Loaded defense, etc.
Miles is not a very good head coach. How he lost two of those games with the team he had in 2007 is pretty amazing. But they have stockpiled talent over in Baton Rouge.
This is exactly what I was going to say.
Remember down 2, with 9 seconds left, at the 22 yardline, they threw a pass? What if that pass gets picked or tipped around and the clock runs out? Take the higher percentage play there, the field goal.
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