Jermaine Thomas: the next Warrick Dunn?

1. Are there any other similarities between Thomas and Dunn? Between Thomas and other great FSU running backs?
—Dunn had Jedi powers. I’m certain of this. Thomas’ numbers might approach or exceed Dunn’s in his second year, but it will be tough for to ever see The Force within someone like Warrick possessed. Agree with me, does anyone? (Yoda voice)
2. Are there any more interesting conclusions to be mined out of the numbers I’ve given?
--Travis Minor being second from the bottom doesn’t surprise me. He was a solid player and excellent piece of 99 Nat’l Championship puzzle, but he didn’t break enough tackles or have the “it” factor. Good at falling forward, however.
3. Are there any compelling reasons to think that Thomas won’t rush for 1,000 yards in 2009?
—Quality depth behind him (gotta give Tavaris a bunch of carries) and a propensity to get popped. There were at least 2 plays last year where I thought, “Damn, Jermaine just got a concussion”. His upright running style has a negative side to it (but the positives outweigh it) when it comes to absorbing punishment.
4. What the heck happened to Dee Feaster?
--I think he returned a punt against Duke and ran through the exits. He’s still running.

1. Are there any other similarities between Thomas and Dunn? Between Thomas and other great FSU running backs?
—Dunn had Jedi powers. I’m certain of this. Thomas’ numbers might approach or exceed Dunn’s in his second year, but it will be tough for to ever see The Force within someone like Warrick possessed. Agree with me, does anyone? (Yoda voice)
2. Are there any more interesting conclusions to be mined out of the numbers I’ve given?
—Travis Minor being second from the bottom doesn’t surprise me. He was a solid player and excellent piece of 99 Nat’l Championship puzzle, but he didn’t break enough tackles or have the "it" factor. Good at falling forward, however.
3. Are there any compelling reasons to think that Thomas won’t rush for 1,000 yards in 2009?
—Quality depth behind him (gotta give Tavaris a bunch of carries) and a propensity to get popped. There were at least 2 plays last year where I thought, "Damn, Jermaine just got a concussion". His upright running style has a negative side to it (but the positives outweigh it) when it comes to absorbing punishment.
4. What the heck happened to Dee Feaster?
—I think he returned a punt against Duke and ran through the exits. He’s still running.

I’ll think about it and try and come back with some answers to your questions.

Where do Greg Allen’s numbers fit in here? He was amazing too and it would be hard to believe that he doesn’t rank near the top with the other guys.As far as Dunn and Jermaine, the real question is does he posess the power to drain the Swamp as Dunn did?

Allen’s YPA as a FR was 6.4, then as a SO it was 5.1. That’s a difference of 1.3 YPA. His YLPA as a FR was 0.23. The big difference between Allen and Thomas is that Allen had more than twice his carries as a FR - 139 to 69. Hard to compare on that basis. But undoubtedly Allen is one of the greatest at FSU.

1. Are there any other similarities between Thomas and Dunn? Between Thomas and other great FSU running backs?

Neither are big backs and both have great hands. I also think that they both turn the corner well when it looks as is they have no angle. Both also had big games against good teams. They didn’t just smoke the little guys.

2. Are there any more interesting conclusions to be mined out of the numbers I’ve given?

The YLPCA number on Thomas is sick. Consider that he lost 4 of those yards slipping down against (Clemson? I think). That number is of course attributable in part to the offensive line, but it’s very very good. Booker had a line that was decidedly “pass first” (and 2nd and 3rd).

3. Are there any compelling reasons to think that Thomas won’t rush for 1,000 yards in 2009

Injury. As The K-Man said above, he really needs to work on not taking kill shots.
Lack of blitz pickup. He had some major misses last year. If that happens again, he might see reduced playing time.
Competition. The coaches loved Ty Jones before his diabetes flareup. Pressley looks beastly in the photos, though I have no idea as to his health.
Schedule. No cupcakes to beat up on, and he’ll be pulled if we get up big (see depth, above).

4. What the heck happened to Dee Feaster?

Paging Fsued, FrankDNole, Rich, etc…

Speaking of Warrick Dunn, I was watching the replay of the game that Sun Sports aired a couple days ago. There is a play on our game-tying drive late in the 4th quarter where Dunn catches a pass out in the flat and races down the sideline and puts a pant dropping move on one of the Gators and continues up the sideline. If i had access to youtube here at work i’d post a link but i dont unfortunately. I think rewound my DVR about 15 times to watch it over and over. Guy was unbelievable….both on the field and off.

but can he if ty and pressley are heavily very involved in the running game? I dont think so. But i would rather see all of them get some good touches and all of them stay healthy all year. God know we will need them.

A smith did not do well in this sceem because he was a fast back but couldnt cutback up lanes and power up the middle. Ty is going to be a good back for us but hes not going to be a power back.

I don’t see how he gets more than 150 carries this year with Pressley, Ty, and Prior competing for reps. I believe if he only had to share with one other back that he would have over 1000 yards this year, but I don’t see it happening. His YPA will drop although his touches will improve, but the depth is to much to overcome for a 1000 yd season.

Actually I hope he doesnt get 1000 yards. I think Jimbo does too. His better teams IMHO are when he had mutiple backs, multiple receivers to keep people fresh and keep pressure on the defense with different personnel and styles. Having a “feature back” is overrated. I was frustrated on Coach Bowden referring to A. Smith as a becoming a “feature back.”

The simple case is, the offense isnt that complicated for the skill guys as far as offenses go, but with fresh talent on every series a missed tackle (because of speed back or a size back or a back that has both) and it’s first down or Touchdown noles.

Love this from the link below…

“Fisher’s offenses aren’t one dimensional as the 2006 LSU Tigers ranked No. 2 in the SEC in rushing with 165.8 yards per game despite not having a back with 500 yards rushing. LSU’s running back-by-committee approach saw six different players lead the Tigers in rushing in 2006.”

http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=174005

Were finally getting multiple points of attack , a solid line to run behind and depth in the back field in terms of power, speed and receiving ability.

Depth is like fighting the tide, eventually the tide wins (Well unless the tide is playing the Noles!!! :) )

I have extremely high hopes for JT this season. I think his running style fits our blocking scheme perfectly.

JT will be a focal point of our offense this year and will easily get 1,000 yards. Yes, easily. We have an amazing Oline for him to run behind. Mark that one down.

http://www.fearthespear.com/blog/blog.php

scroll down a bit

Brandon James UF

738 yards in kick returns

95 yards receiving

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090714/hl_nm/us_surgery_acl_tears_nfl_care

and a lot of that was 3rd and long with ponder knowing he had to go a few yards where Wetherford went the shorter easyer route. I think if it works out we shouldnt have to go 3 and long as much as last year and with less yards to get and ponder who actualy knows where the first down is and wants to get pass it the Avg might go up. Would be nice man.

with Sims gone( I hope) we are going to need someone back there to block and pick up the blitz. how are our backs in this area anyone know.

IIRC, it was Rock Preston and Tiger McMillon that ran all over Notre Dame in that much hyped game in ’93.

I do recall correctly the ND defensive player who said after the game that he was glad “FSU didn’t run those fast little backs more, ‘cause we couldn’t stop ’em.”

You see, ND under Lou Holz had sold out their scheme to stop Charlie Ward. Bobby and his brain trust didn’t catch on.

This was about the time I came to the final conclusion in light of that game, and the repeated mistakes against Miami, that neither Bobby nor his OC were offensive masterminds. I chuckled when USC (east) hired Brad Scott that year, thinking he would change their fortunes.

However, I think it will be unlikely that he will reach 1,000 yds this year for many of the same reasons already mentioned which I won’t rehash.

It could happen next year, but I think he needs to get a little stronger, regardless of if he is to be the feature back or not, which will probably not happen anyway under Jimbo’s system.

You did rekindle some fond memories of Warrick Dunn, who will be discussed further in the next couple of days.

you provided Heather Dinich with her stat about FSU’s RBs. “Jermaine Thomas lost only 10 yards last year”. I’m sure that was a stat she kept close eye on.

I’m stoked about JT, I really feel he’s a superstar in the making. I worry about him staying healthy b/c w/ his up-right style he is open to taking some brutal shots if he isn’t careful.

If we can run as good as people think we can clock managment is going to be a big key. With the 3 Rb we have and all seeing playing time we should stay fresh and I hope that helps keep the Def of the field. I noticed last year the D seemed worst when they stayed on the feild for more than 6 plays. I think trickett knows this and thats why he is pushing his O-line to learn to play go while running on empty.

That came from keeping track of high school career, stats and what his coaches and team mates said about him.

He was the type to go up and down the bench telling team mates not to quit that he would break one. He scored something like 6 touchdowns in two weeks mostly on long runs. He just has a knack for breaking the big play.

He does find that crease however utilizing the upright position which may well garner him some big hits by the defense. Dunn ran much lower to the ground and avoided them. I don’t think you could argue that. Look how long he has lasted in the NFL as a very undersized back.

I don’t worry about Thomas’s top end speed. His initial burst and the first five yards are as good as any and he is more elusive than most backs. He will probably be run down from behind once in awhile however even when he breaks the long run.

I was afraid we were going to lose him in the recruiting process when Lester Miles was camping out at his house with a bag of money during the recruiting process.

out of the young backs lonnie pryor and chris thompson do you think either will get playin time this year? and which one do you favor more overall?

We drop the FB and run a zone read out of Shotgun with 4 WR. This means LB and S will have to leave the box to help with the pass Our o-line can shove the rest out of the way.

 I feel like the title of this thread is false in nature….but JT can make his own mark in FSU folklore.

Was anybody in attendance at this game? The clip ends too soon, as I’ve seen other views where the Seminole section of the Orange Bowl looked like it was about to collapse the steel supports during the celebration frenzy. What an underrated play. I’d love to hear some descriptive accounts of this moment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SyEl4uPn6Q

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2009/varsity-numbers-introducing-poe

Love this stuff. I asked about Smith and JT, and this is what i got.

Smith: 66.4 EqPts, 55.6 Expected EqPts, 119.3 PPP+, 10.8 POE, 45th in the country.
Thomas: 30.1 EqPts, 23.4 Expected EqPts, 129.0 PPP, 6.8 POE, 72nd in the country.
So there’s your answer. Smith was better. So was Thomas. Actually, I’d give the edge to Thomas with the better PPP, but Smith had almost 3x more carries. Maybe Thomas’s production would have gone down with a lot more carries, but he did have the edge.

Looking at it by %, however,

Smith has 19% more EQPTS than expected
Thomas has 29% more EQPTS than expected

I see some great stuff but I also see some bad.

It seems that he looks like he just runs smart. like he can time things right or has some patients. The bad it looks like he just cought some people out of position. I also notice he seems to run high and could help to pick his feet up. Cant complain to much because hes better than I could ever be.

FSU needs a RB more like ricky williams. We dont need a guy that has top speed and can just out run you. (A smith) we need a big back that would just as much run through you than around you. Great hips with power. Someone who can see the dime hes turning on. Quickness over speed. someone that gets the ball sees the hole waits for it and then takes off like a bullet thats not scared to hit that brick wall and not want to stop. All the RB in Fl seem to be more like A. Smith fast as all sin but thats about it. I think we need to head up to Big 10 area and get a RB from up around there. I love how big 10 back run like PJ hill and beanie wells.

“I think the most surprising back is going to be Jermaine Thomas at FSU,” Dwyer said. “I saw a spark when he played against us. He’s a fast guy, he can make some big plays. With Jimbo Fisher’s offense, you never know what he’s going to do.”

excellent writing and just just homer based thinking……..

I personally think that we will be using all 3 backs and JT will be around 100 carries and 650 yards, but we will find much more success that way (and fewer injuries hopefully)

nice first post eh………sticky keyboard ftw