The most dangerous time of the year
by Fsued on Jul 2, 2009 2:16 PM EDT
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PrintIt's about to start happening.
Do you know what I'm talking about?
On college football message boards across the land, I'm starting to see threads on
-- the fall two-deep roster
-- opponents breakdowns
-- position breakdowns.
-- schedule of August practices
-- etc.
What does that mean? It means we are just a few weeks from practice starting and just 2 MONTHS from the season opener.
And that's going to get people -- me included -- excited. The thought of Renegade planting that first spear of the fight song, the warchant and all the trappings of another Florida State football season will get me an lots of other Seminoles pumped.
And that's great -- if we didn't get excited, it wouldn't matter.
But before you really catch that fever -- do yourself a favor. Set your expectations for the upcoming season NOW and don't change them.
We'll have the same 4 or so weeks of practice that everybody else has this August. The chances that we will improve at a much faster rate than our opponents is slim. We'll have the same personnel (actually, depending on injuries, the same or worse personnel). We'll have the same coaches. Our schedule will be just as hard then as it is now.
Don't fall for the pre-season hype.
Korey Mangum was bad last year and will be bad this year and nothing you read on a message board or in an SID report will change that.
Our O-line will be better, but this is not going to be Russ Grim and Joe Jacoby -- it might not be a liability but I don't see us running the ball like Nebraska in the 70s.
Our WR corps is suspect, we are -- as has been researched so thoroughly on this site -- too small in the defensive front 7. We have a freshman kicker and a dysfunctional coaching staff.
I'll be screaming my head off for 11 wins, but given the schedule and our personnel, I'd set the over/under at 7.5.
Wherever you set yours, don't let ANYTHING (shy of major injuries) that happens in August cause you to adjust that number.
Not trying to be a Debbie Downer here, but I've allowed myself too many times to be caught up in pre-season wishcasting. Not going to do it this year.
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Good post, ed.
Only be surprised at stuff that is real. For instance, Easterling coming back is a surprise. Coaches saying DeMonte might play End and not tackle is a surprise.
If I am excited over something it is the linebacker play. The guys we lost weren’t good (sorry Toddrick).
This is very much a build and maintain year. 2010 is the year I will expect big big results.
I always set my expectations
1 win higher than I legitimately think we will win, just because I like to stay optomistic. Stupid, probably. Hopeful, definitely.
Honest Assessment
What about the kicking game? Freshman kickers against this murder’s row schedule give me the willys!
FSUnc...if Ponder puts up similar numbers to last year
do you think Jimbo gives Manuel a shot or do we stick with Ponder? I’d hate to put Manuel in that situation before he’s ready…
I've done that since about 2002.
We are still a 4 loss team as I see it, and will be until we revamp the defense.
yeah...but getting caught up in it is part of the fun.
I don’t imagine it would be much fun to have the attitude, “i hope we can win 6 games this year”…
Don’t get me wrong, I understand your point, we’re not winning the national championship this year,
but
I think this is dangerous territory, and part of the reason we can’t sell out Doak. The “I’m going to wait until we’re good” mentality.
We're not the ones emptying Doak.
“Why aren’t we winning 10 games?! Why isn’t Jimbo turning this thing around?! C’mon Bobby, we believe in you!” That’s the crowd that’s confused right now and misinformed and REALLY frustrated. Knowing is about 9/10 of this battle. Besides, do you think the casual fan still cheering for Bobby sat through the rain at Wake Forest ‘06? Riiiiight. These folks are too busy preaching to fans like us than to bother supporting Bowden (and umm, the team) at the games. And obviously the casual fans that, ahem, don’t make us pull our hair out aren’t coming to the games no matter what we tell them. We beg them to come, but they won’t until we improve the product on the field show even a pedestrian commitment to winning. We could lie and tell them we’re just one or two breaks away every year, but ask WC and TK how that’s going.
We want folks to be happy with 8 wins if we can get them. “Get in Doak and cheer this team on to 8 wins.” Because that would be a terrific season for this team. And if we get more, hallelujah, let the people know what an accomplishment that would be! (The most tragic thing would be for fans to be disappointed with a 9-3 season in 2009. THIS is what we’re trying to avoid.) “If we lose to Georgia Tech, get back in here for N.C. State and let’s get this thing turned around. And for the love of all that is pure and holy, don’t do the wave while the offense has the ball!!” (This is my least favorite Doak tradition, right up there with singing “Happy Birthday” to Bobby Bowden. …. Second least.)
knowing...
yes knowing is half the battle…the other half is violence..USMC. HAHA.
Not an alcoholic, just an FSU grad.
I agree...at times the tone here is TOO dark.
Tomahawk is THE best source for nole info. but no one here is ever going to be mistaken for an optomist.
I was thinking we are a 7 or 8 win team, but I’ve been crunching info and I think a few of last years conference leaders are in worse shape than is being noticed.
- most of the heavy hitters are down on offensive and defensive line play. I’m going on record saying we are a solid 9 win team. I think reciever play will be slightly better than perception. enough to get us going, and I agree with Phil steel that our D-line will be better sooner rather than later…not great just better.
Possible losses IMO include Miami (talent), BYU (match up issues) Clemson (line play), and wake(matchup nightmare) , along with South Florida and UF out of confernece.
It think in the end we have better line play than Miami and BYU, I think we drop a close one to USF, and take Clemson out. Wake forrest is a coin toss and we along with everyone else on their schedule will get trounced by UF.
I’ll stick to this story unless there are MAJOR changes in spring…..key Speacial teams returners and place kicking.
Yeah, right!
i think you're discounting the coaching factor roo much.
It’s not just about “who’s coming back.” Almost everyone we play, and this goes back to the late 80’s, does more with less. That’s The Bowden Way, and this year will be no exception.
GT, btw, was a very young team last year- youngest in the ACC and one of the youngest in DI.
by PeachTreeNole on Jul 3, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I see the USF game as a must win...
I’m not quite sure why we thought we needed to have one of the hardest schedules in the country by adding this game.
We’ve officially invited them to the Big Boy table and need to dominate, if just for the sake of recruiting.
Agreed
we don’t match up well right now. I think if our offensive line wins the battle against Selvie and company we win… also we need to have a solid place kicker and returners by that game1
Yeah, right!
Dark?
Everyone here that I know of just tries to be honest. We’re prepared to celebrate an eight-win season, and now we’re dark? Who else will celebrate eight wins and throw parties at nine?
I predicted to TN some time ago that Jimbo Fisher will be given the shortest leash in the history of college football, should he ever actually become head coach while any of us is still alive. I gave the reasons. Starting to see where I’m coming from? I know this fanbase.
didn't mean to generalize... It's my one stop for FSU!
However it waxes just a bit worst case senario for me at times… tell you what we’re all in it together so you guys be “honest” and I’ll be “glass half full.” and we will all chop together on Saturdays.
And Thursdays and Mondays, and occassionally Wednesdays.
Yeah, right!
I think this is fair.
We basically just differ on NC State, GTech, and UNC, all of whom should be bowl teams.
thanks
only recently looking at line play for those three teams makes me think we deffinately get past them… QB, OL & DL usually settles it.
Yeah, right!
I agree with that.
Linebackers and defensive backs are the least important players. A truly elite WR or RB in college can make a difference.
But I am curious as to why you don’t like UNC? Experienced QB, decent OLine, and probably the best DLine in the conference (top 5 nationally)
at second look they're really a great team
I’ve been running an experiment where I compare teams strickly on 4-5 key (QB head to head, OL vs. DL and vise versa as the key factors/ ST head to head, and choaching, and homefield as sub factors) for match up purposes to see close those factors are to projecting(not predicting) winners, so I’ve been viewing everything through those glasses for a couple of weeks.
Ga Tech, UNC, & NC state are all quality teams who according to those factors we match up well with this year…. so far.
I’ll be adjusting those factors with injuries, underperforming units, and overperforming units.
Yeah, right!
I'm going 8 wins in regular season.
Losses to UF, Clemson, North Carolina, GT. 5-3 in the division. Depending on how Clemson does, that decides if we’re ACC bound or not.
Just wants to beat the Gators
I expect Jimbo to go all out at some point, after all I would think
he’s playing for leverage on his head coaching contract. A 10 win season puts him in a better position at the table than another 7-6 or 8-4.
I know, I know, the players have to execute…Jimbo can’t take the field; I just don’t think he has shown his full hand yet….
I think he always goes all out...
part of the key is blance… he’s the kind of guy who doesn’t mind showing you his bubble screen and bubble screen fake to a take off route in game 3, because he will just run the counter in game four and then run it again in game 5.
Yeah, right!
I agree, he's very competitive (and certainly didn't mean to imply that he doesn't want to win)
I’m just thinking back to the spring game after hearing all the reports about how dominant the offense was over the defense, and then not seeing it during the game/scrimmage.
Then what do you know, the offense dominates again at the following practice.
of course, i know the rumors here with the recruits, and alleged "spies"..
He’s in a pretty good spot to be in really…We’ll pay you a boatload of money if don’t hire you, a boatload if we do…really, why leave?
The life of a HC…Makes me think back to Jeff Cameron saying the best day in a HC’s life is when he gets fired and collects millions.
if we can win against miami and dont get too cocky, 10-2 or 9-3.
We at least need to win as many as it takes for us to get into the ACC Championship game. If were not back there this year it’ll be pretty upsetting.
I'm an optimist.
But I ain’t no dummy.
To get to 11 wins, you need to have few, if any, questions on your 2-deep defense. (think of our mid-90’s to 2000 teams).
We’ve got questions all over the first string D.
Great Post
I’ve been expecting 9 wins for a while now, with a (very) outside shot at 11. 8 regular season wins, a win in the ACCCG and a BCS bowl win over a weak Big East team gets us 10 and an offseason full of “FSU is on the way back” stories. UF is the only lock loss, unless Tebow blows a knee. Other than that pretty much every team on the schedule has something major since last season. BC looks like a cakewalk now, WF’s defense lost it’s teeth. GT lost a lot on the D-line, and etc. The only sad thing is we are in no position to take advantage of any of it because we are in the same damn boat.
If the offense eats up the clock and puts up 30+ a game, without getting fat on AA teams like last year, then we have a pretty good shot at winning the division at least. But all it will take is a fumble here and an int there for our season to sink. We aren’t so much better than any team in the conference that we can overcome dumb mistakes or too much bad luck.
Who is this FSU you speak of?
coin-flip wins against the likes of WF, NCSU, GT? That doesn’t sound like FSU..
oh wait…
:)
optimistic
you know i cant help but be optimistic about this season because, unlike a lot of the preseason magazines, i think we actually went through an addition by subtraction offseason…. for starters i think the secondary, while very green behind the ears, will be much much more talented than in previous years… i love tony carter and myron rolle just as much as the next guy but i think greg reid and jajuan have a lot more upside then either carter or rolle ( rolle strictly with coverage ability)… I think the d-line could just have gotten that influx of talent we really needed… jaccobi and demonte (esp if he plays d-end) should be pretty serviceable this season and i think the rest of the d-line got to take the offseason to get bigger… i agree with FSUncensored in that our linebackers should be much better this season… with Dekoda actually healthy and Bradham getting playing time our lb core seems pretty intimidating to me…. and then you have to say the offense is only going to get better… Jermaine should have had about 100 more carries last season because he was obviously a little bit better at hitting the whole than antone was… so im thinking he turns in to that lights out runner we have been missing for so long…. the o line is just good… and now that Datko doesnt weigh 260 pounds its scary to think what he can do…. ponder will only get better… hes got a strong enough arm and he is mobile enough to make something happen every play… and i think with a full offseason as the starter its probably really helped him gel with the first unit…. and lastly we have the receivers… lets really think about what we lost… greg carr- now i liked the guy a lot but lets face it… he was a little lazy on the route running and i dont think he really fit what jimbo wanted…. and then there was preston who made countless penalties by just being stupid sometimes… i think i saw him kick someone once… common now….. and who knows how good the freshman wide outs could be…. i think camp will tell us a little more than what some on here think… and maybe im too optimistic but you what i dont think 10-2 is all that impossible…. if i had to guess i would say we lose at least one we shouldnt and win one we shouldnt…. thats just basically how college football usually works..
by officelinebacker on Jul 3, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
I remember Preston's kick. Geno Hayes kicked a Clemson player as well.
I hope we can win 10 this year, but given the schedule, I will be VERY happy with 8-4.
officelinebacker, I think it would be fair to say that my/our side tend to agree with your addition through subtraction notion...
…but view 2009 as the transition year for the improvement to take place. In other words, I don’t think we’re that far off here. Everyone’s god almighty, Urban Meyer, went 9-4 against a weak schedule in 2007 when he took this approach to set up for a national title run in 2008. No one’s saying we CAN’T win 10 games. What we’re saying is, let’s just make sure we appreciate the situation we’re looking at here, and then disagree from that point. I don’t think everyone’s comfortable that all parties understand what huge weaknesses (and disadvantages – you know what I’m talking about here) still exist on this team, though there is a lot to be excited about. I can’t speak for everyone, but that’s why I’m personally trying to set the bar at eight games. I think that’s realistic, and I think that should be a minimum goal. I feel anything over that is a huge accomplishment, and I want the team to be recognized for that. What I don’t want (and what I fear, as I’ve stated) is a backlash at Jimbo (who is not our head coach yet) should the team overachieve yet not win 10 or 11 games.
I also
fear that jimbo will take the heat if we dont live up to “expectations” this season…. and i agree that the schedule is going to certainly be a tough one… I would just be really frustrated if this was one of the best teams we’ve had in 5 or 6 years and we ended up only winning 8 games…. and i do agree that we are probably not a serious contender until 2010…. here’s to hoping for the best this season
by officelinebacker on Jul 3, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You're extremely underrating TC and Myron Rolle
if you think Reid and Harley have more potential than them. They probably have the same potential, and remember that Reid and Harley are freshman. Rolle was a Junior, and TC was a 5th year Senior. Give them credit for what they accomplished with this incompetant coaching staff.
Just wants to beat the Gators
ill give tony credit where it is deserved… i thought he played extremely well at points but i also felt sometimes he played out of position… now i do agree that the coaching philosophy is a little out of date, but i still think reid is better suited to run the man coverage than tony was (or at least he has a higher ceiling… and you cant argue that)…. now with Myron, i always felt he played out of position…. he was a linebacker (a cover 2 defense probably would have better suited him) playing safety…. Rolle was a great tackler but just always out of the play when it came to coverage…. he got beat a lot…. still… i think we will have a little bit of growing pains this year, but i hold to my notion that the both reid and harley have more upside in the long haul……. in truth the best thing for the defensive unit could be when fisher takes over and hires someone with a more modern denfesive philosophy… the man coverage we run is just so completely out of date
by officelinebacker on Jul 3, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
You're overrating TC and Myron
I’m sorry but big names aren’t all that matter. Carter was serviceable but Greg Reid’s upside is 10x that of Tony Carter’s. Whether or not Tony Carter could cut it in the NFL was still up for question all through his senior year, whereas Greg Reid spent the entire week of the Under Armour All-American game thoroughly impressing NFL coaches and locking down elite level receivers. No offense to Myron and all that he’s accomplished for our university, im eternally grateful and appreciative but throughout his career did he even have 3 int’s? I’m not being funny, its a serious question? Myron Rolle was great in run support and a sure tackler but he was not the best Safety ever.
I think we win somewhere around eight games this year.
I hope JoPa runs the table, not because I like him or Penn State, but because it will put BB further back in his rear view mirror. Combine JoPa winning three or four more games than BB this season and Bobby having to give up those 14 precious wins then maybe, just maybe January of 2010 will seen Jimbo take over.
call me crazy but Im going all the way
will we win them all hell no but thats not going to stop me from talking trash to anyone that wears orange, red, baby blue( dont call it that by the way they get pissy) and green. Im going to be on here week in and out talking about how we are going to woop that a$$. and no one is better than us. Is this true I know its not but thats just how im going to be. If we lose ill have my words but then im right back in for the next week. (unless its NCST or UNC) Im going to hype every good thing I hear because Im a Nole fan. about next year I think there is only one game that we will lose hands down. UF. but know what
On any given day and given team can beat any other team. IT IS TIME TO TAKE BACK WHAT IS OURS. THE ACC.
Fear the Spear >>>—————-"→ go noles
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
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