Monday Morning Tomahawks- Friday 07.24.09 Edition
by Bud Elliott on Jul 24, 2009 11:21 AM EDT
in FSU Football
78 comments
Inside:
- Very cool preview from our friends at football outsiders.
- A USF preview! Good stuff there.
- FSU's media guide- for free.
- Two articles with quotes from FSU's new commitment (see yesterday's article)
- Steve Ellis wonders if this isn't Bowden's last season.
Football Outsiders' college football almanac is available for five bucks here.
This is produced by Brian Fremeau of BCFToys.Blogspot.com, and Bill Conneley of RockMNation.com. Their FEI and BTBS measures are far more accurate than anything else.
Coastal
1.) Virginia Tech -- 10-2 (6-2)
2.) Georgia Tech -- 8-4 (5-3)
3.) Miami -- 7-5 (4-4)
4.) North Carolina -- 6-6 (3-5)
5.) Virginia -- 5-7 (3-5)
6.) Duke -- 4-8 (1-7)
Atlantic
1.) Clemson -- 9-3 (5-3)
2.) Boston College -- 9-3 (5-3)
3.) Florida State -- 7-5 (5-3)
4.) Wake Forest -- 7-5 (4-4)
5.) NC State -- 6-6 (3-5)
6.) Maryland -- 5-7 (3-5)
That's certainly the most optimistic Boston College projection you'll see this off-season. The general consensus is that the Eagles will finish fifth in the Atlantic; aside from FO, only Phil Steele expects them to finish in the top half of the division.
Personally, I think FSU will finish in a 1st place tie and lose the tiebreaker to Clemson. Interestingly in their projections, however, is a three way tie for first place in the division! FSU's non-conference schedule is obviously tough.
This is worth checking out, however, as we do a ton of stuff with footballoutsiders. Their numbers and ratings are simply second to none. They strongly support the notion that our offense was better than our defense last year.
I did have a few questions, however, mainly about Preston Parker. He was still listed.
Brian responded:
Thanks for the frank feedback. The Preston Parker error is obviously a glaring oversight in our editing, and the NFL projections data was gathered from a number of different sources. With regard to changes, the print-to-order book is already in the can, and instead of focusing on edits to the PDF versions -- the vast majority of which were completed a month or more ago -- our plan is simply to acknowledge that some errors are inevitable and move forward.
If that is insufficient for your endorsement, we're sorry to hear that. We certainly appreciate your acknowledgement, recognition and links to our content. And I do think we'll learn from any mistakes this season and build on our successes for next year's volume.
I was also obviously skeptical about BC's projection, largely based on a projection of the #3 overall defense (last season they had the 4th best defense) because they did lose their two NFL monsters in the middle and the best linebacker in football (cancer). I suggested that maybe they were relying too heavily on the number of starters returning as opposed to the specific starters returning.
Brian Responded:
With regard to Boston College, I am personally as skeptical as you are, though the Eagles have consistently surpassed expectations for the last 5-6 years. If BC is going to have success, it will come from yet another unheralded and under-recruited group of defenders, and the common thread of Spaziani might trump the perceived talent drop-off. Raji, Brace and Herzlich weren't all-world players when they were recruited. According to Bill Connelly's "Cumulative Rivals Rankings" that accompany his essay at the end of FOCFA, Boston College has been #42 in recruiting since 2002 (they don't appear, actually on his top-40 list in the essay), yet they have consistently performed above that level, particularly defensively, over the same time period.
I do agree that we can do much more research in the future with regard to our adjustments for departing talent. And we really do appreciate being challenged to re-evaluate our methodology. Let us know if you have any more questions or thoughts.
I also asked Brian about why they used 5 year weighted averages instead of another size:
On why five instead of four years with regard to projection baselines, we ran regressions on a whole slew of timeframes (5-year, 4-year, 3-, 2-, different weights) and the 5-year weighted for recent years resulted in the strongest correlation to next-year FEI that we tested. I think our methodology may be stronger in identifying teams overrated in the national consensus (we were pretty bullish on Illinois coming back to earth after their breakout 2007 season -- Ole Miss may be in store for the same), than we are in identifying teams ready to break through. That too will be a particular area of research for me going forward.
On Texas Tech, the effect of field position management on a teams performance other than its offense and defense, as a well as its special teams scoring can have an impact but not show up in the Offensive or Defensive FEI. The rating is also more important than the rank -- Texas Tech's #7 Offense has a rating closer to the #21 projected Offense (Notre Dame) than to the #4 projected Offense (Florida).
I have to say that this is something that could change the way you view football, much like moneyball did for a lot of baseball people.
The Quad Countdown: No. 40 South Florida - The Quad Blog - NYTimes.com
Like the program itself, the 2009 Bulls will be young and hungry. Can U.S.F. factor into the Big East mix despite being overlooked? A very nice preview.
zSHARE - Florida State.pdf
Don't pay for the FSU Media Guide! Download it for free!
Florida State receives 10th commitment from Texas DE Holmes Onwukaife - OrlandoSentinel.com
The offer wasn't given by Amato, but by Coley and Fisher. That's a sign that FSU is moving in the right direction and away from Amato's archaic ideas about linebacker fits. Holmes also says FSU treated him and his family the best and that he was motivated by a TV story he saw on Myron Rolle.
FSU locks up 10th commitment | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
"From the moment we got there we were very welcomed," Onwukaife said. "We sat down and evaluated all the options and decided this is where I want to play the next four or five years. My dad and Coach (James) Coley have established a good relationship. My parents felt very comfortable in handing me over to Florida State and I feel very comfortable playing there. "I enjoyed the recruiting process but now that I have made the best decision, I'm just going to focus on my schoolwork and my team this year." "I just think standing on two feet I can really explode more and get off the ball and really turn it up," Onwukaife said.
It's just about that time again for Bowden | tallahassee.com | Tallahassee Democrat
When will Bowden retire? I think it's this year. He won't say. Spetman says Bowden has 1 or 2 years left- max. As for who hires Mickey Andrews' replacement? Fisher would get the call.
GO NOLES!!
0 recs |
78 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Uggghhh
The comments on the Bowden article from the Democrat make me want to puke.
If they get to 10 wins or compete for a MNC, what makes you think Bobby had anything to do with it? Just because he naps on the sideline doesn’t mean he’s guided the team to a great season.
I think BB was a very good coach in his time, and no one can argue he’s not a great person. But seriously, as a booster, if your greatest memory of Bowden had to do with a cruise ship, you don’t understand what is happening with the program. Maybe when Bobby is retired, we just shouldn’t tell some of the boosters. Some people are clueless. I’m sure they wouldn’t even catch on….
I agree...They'd probably say he does as much as JoePa, which he might, i don't know.
We hardly play the schedule that Penn State plays. Their schedule is a joke. They don’t have the recruiting battles in the northeast that we have. Sure they occasionally battle Ohio State and some other national players, but if you got a player that wants to stay in the NE, they’re competing with Rutgers, Pitt, WV?
The fact of the matter is that we shouldn’t have declined to the extent we did. Period.
Don't Worry
That won’t happen. With 7 or 8 wins this year and no upsets by us (even cummy 2007 had one against then-No. 2 B.C.), even those buffoons will have to realize his time is up. You’ll have to wait for Jimbo and more importantly HIS new coaches, for us to get double digit wins. And as for not telling the Boosters that Bobby is gone when that finally happens, you’ll be able to do that with ease, as they still think we have a great defense (though we haven’t for three years) and are national championship material (not for eight years). Just tell Jimbo to say “dadgumit” and “bumfuzzled” at least once a week in those luncheons or the post-game press conference, and you’ll get ten years before they catch on.
It was long ago and it's far away but it was so much better than it is today--Meatloaf
by CantwaitforJimbo on Jul 24, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Moneyball threw me down a long dark hole of sports (mostly baseball) stats
tha I am not sure I will ever get out of.
While I recognize that we have a tough schedule both in and out of conference
I think we come away with a record better than 7-5. I personally see a 9 or 10 win season.
maybe with a bowl win, but there’s probably a 15 percent chance we miss a bowl.
this team has NO veteran talent, particularly on defense and as you know, an injury would kill us.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 24, 2009 11:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd consider Watson, Robinson, The O-line
Veteran talent. To say that we have NO veteran talent might be a bit of a reach. While these kids aren’t all juniors and seniors we have a large number of players that have started double digit games and bring plenty of talent and athleticism to the table. I recognize we can’t afford injuries (particularly on defense), but i’m not willing to entertain a 7 win season. We’ve got a lot of dangerous games on our schedule but I think a lot of them can stack up in our favor. We won’t know how good we really are until the 3rd game but Labor Day will give us a very very good idea and Jacksonville State will be a game for us to work out some kinks and hit a rhythm.
Sorry about that
BOTH Robinsons. I don’t think our secondary lets us down during the season the way people are expecting. Save for the CB opposite Pat Robinson, i’m not really overly concerned with the other spots.
No
I don’t think Mangum will keep that job long enough to start against Miami in all honesty. It’ll be either Parks or Moody and i’m ok with either of them being there in place of Mangum. I’d prefer Mangum on the field at a minimum.
I hote to say this but hes going to see a lot of playing time
If we lose a LB they can plug him in there like last year. I dont think we have veteran talent but we have a lot of true FR and So that had to grow up fast. The o-line has a great leader in Tricket. as a team we need to stand behind them. we have Reed, and Easterling, and Ponder. We have both Rob’s and Watson. Its not a lot of veteran talent but its the people that care. To be a leader you dont have to be a Sr. All you need is to care. We will have a lot of mistakes and players will miss blocks and blow coverages. all we can hope for is the other QB misses it and other players can help cover down and help out. And when all else fails at least we have one thing we can always fall back to SPEED KILLS.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
If Mangum sees playing time
I feel like it’ll be further down the list at corner. Everything I heard leads me to believe that both Moody and Parks are out performing him at S.
No way Mangum goes back to CB.
Unless we’re desperate. He’s going to see major time at S.
Just wants to beat the Gators
I think Mangum is needed
We have a lot of talent coming in but its raw. We need someone that knows the Def. and thats him. I dont want it to be but he knows it. I hope by the end of the year he becomes a star or the younger players pick all they need up. thats about all we can hope for. at least hes ok enought to maybe cover a TE
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
"needed" is definitely a strong word
I understand the value of experience but if a guy doesn’t make plays that knowledge and experience is only good for practice. I understand people’s reluctance to play young talent in our secondary but Mangum has never shown me a thing to make me overly confident about him, especially not playing a new position. I’d prefer his marginal contributions be left where they are at Corner than experimented with at Rover. Again, I do acknowledge that I have it out for the kid (both he and Jenije just suck to me), but I don’t think anyone would say that Mangum has ever blown them away, even in practice and workouts.
Didnt Miami play a lot of young guys last year
I think it worked ok for them for the most part. Also Our SS are more like rovers anyhow so It would be ok to have a young kid that can catch and hit. Thats all I want. Mangun or whoever.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Agreed
That really all I want is the best possible answer back there and I suppose i’m turned off to Mangum based on past knowledge. But ultimately I think we’ll be fine in the secondary or at least much better than people anticipate. Despite the misleading ranking in pass defense, we rarely made plays (turnovers and such) from our DB’s. I think that will improve this season.
I don't think he'll start at Corner by any means
I also don’t think MAJOR time at Safety is in the question if both Moody and Parks are healthy. Mangum could play Nickle or Dime. But I honestly don’t think he’s going to survive the major infusion of talent simply based on his experience because he’s been largely inconsistent (trust me I know some of this is just wishful thinking because i’m not a big fan of Mangum in any way at all). But I do believe that we’d do better with Parks, Moody or even Harley or Demps playing immediately at Safety. People talk about Mangum knowing the defense but it hasn’t saved him from getting burnt in the past. We’ll see if he survives 2-a-days as the starter, but like I said if Moody is healthy I expect him to bag that job up.
The dayd of Kyler Hall, Roger Williams and Darius McClure
are soon to be long LONG gone. We won’t have worries like that for the next 5 to 6 years i’m almost certain of it lol
Say what you want about Kyler
But I’ve won the Heisman with him multiple times in NCAA 2004. Virtually, he’s the best Nole to ever exist.
yet they still say we tie for 1st in our division!
by Bud Elliott on Jul 24, 2009 12:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
that IS a joke
cuz we definitely need to beat USF, that would make us 5-7
Are you guys really entertaining
a losing season being ok if we only be certain teams?
Obviously kidding
here’s a good fanpoll though. How many losses are you willing to entertain if it means we can beat Florida this year?
The ACC championship teams will likely be decided by only one loss
In my mind, the main priority is winning the ACC, so I would not give up an ACC loss, even to blowout UF.
On the other hand, I would gladly lose to USF or BYU to embarass UF in Tebow’s last hurrah
by NorthernHaze on Jul 24, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Both USF and BYU
games hold incredible implications for us this season.
those games would kill us for a season
If we go into ACC comp. 1-2 thats not good for us. We need to go in
3-0 If we can do that we will have a good season with a pos 9-10 + season. If we lose those games thats where we end up with a 7 or 8 win season. How can we play the ACC when we can beat 2 ok teams.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
It has been a tough morning
I have long been banned at the democrat (can’t read it for the dll) but apparently I can no longer comment on Bianchi’s articles at the Sentinel.
This one bounced back at me:
Stop typing now Mikey and seek the help you need. You don’t have to go through this alone there are people who can help you, who you can turn to.
Mikey for what it is worth Herban is not the bear. He doesn’t have 12 national championships nor 24 SEC titles. He has 3 Mikey, 3!
This talk about Tebow’s cherry is beginning to worry us Mikey, people are whispering!
Couple of thoughts....
*Terry, go stick it up your #$#$@#!. Just another example of the Bowden family which thinks IT is more important than FSU……and frankly, that family seems almost antagonistic towards FSU. The Bowdens are unemployable at anywhere but some small time school and they can’t stand it. They feel FSU owes them a truck load of money. The arrogance of the Bowdens is sickening. Yet some FSU fans still have more loyalty to them and not FSU.
*I absolutely 100% promise you that Bobby will do all he can to make Amato the next Def. Coord. Bobby is that out of touch and that arrogant.
BANK ON IT.
Actually
I had a nightmare about that once………..CTC for DC!
There were clowns everywhere…..the circus music……….the laughing dogs………the elephants
It was TERRIBLE!!!!
Yeah, I wasn't sure if I was reading it correctly.
That is absurd.
" And He drank the world's sin so He could carry you in, and give you life"
Of course Terry wants his daddy to coach another 3 years.
And I’m sure it has nothing to do with adding another $7.5 million to the inheritance pot.
Check this link, awesome stuff from Chris at SmartFootball
Says he’s going to do something bigger about the Hokie D on his site in the next few days.
PBD
I guess I should have left links to the articles. It is not me you should worry about but Mikey.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orl-sportssec-bianchi-column-24072409jul24,0,7779377.column
As a side note...
since I’m seeing all these Sentinel links… does anyone know what happened to AC’s blog? There hasn’t been much activity lately. Is he on vacation?
LaMarcus Joyner
I just read a great interview with him on Noledigest.com. He is the epitome of what our program needs to get back on top. Not only is he everything we need on the field but from what I read, he’s another great character guy to add to our recent recruiting classes. I’ll be sick if we don’t end up getting him.
by noles 4 life u dig? on Jul 24, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
My take on that interview....
His heart is in Tally but he’s not 100% sold that its the best move for his future. I’m sure seeing and talking with the Nole greats before he left SS would of helped him answer that question. Unfortunately, OSU could make a strong case in that regard also. Hopefully he goes with his heart for the tiebreaker…..
by noles 4 life u dig? on Jul 24, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
That interview really was great
I love how thoughtful his answers were and his head definitely in the right place, I hope there isn’t anything that happens to pull him away from the good guys. He’s an outstanding kid and will be an amazing leader for us in the future.
We need him to make his pledge to us...
he could be a hige pull for other recruits…like it or not, kids are gonna go where they see big names going a lot of times…any chance he will pull the trigger sooner rather than later?
Some people think so
but i’m not qualified to answer that question with confidence lol. I have heard that he’s been recruiting for us though so that seriously can’t be a bad sign.
Who is the 5-star on campus today??
Any one know?
Corey Lemonier maybe?
He’s the only guy I heard would be there this weekend that would be a 5*
Ego was supposed to come through on his way to FNl
I would assume it is him, but you know what happens when you assume.
Something that UF does better than FSU with their camp is the starting time. UF has a ton of guys there right now doing little drills and spending time with the coaches. FSU should really push to get kids there earlier.
Spend more time with coaches one on one. Luc has already spent an hour with Meyer one on one. The longer you get these big time kids on campus before the large number of kids arrive the more personal attention they get.
FSUn, I noticed this is the spring Media Guide, will they release another one at the start of the season?
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
FSU Media Guide download didn't work for me
Does anyone have any alternate links?
apparentlyit was the spring media guide. I couldn’t dl it at work.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 24, 2009 6:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
