Game Log Positional Breakdown: RBs. A Database of Running Stats and Analysis.
by SWFLNole. on Jul 27, 2009 6:53 PM EDT
63 comments
It is no secret that Florida State plans to run the ball a lot this year. The offensive line under Rick Trickett is much better at run blocking than pass blocking. Also, keeping the other team off the field will help our questionable defense. Many Seminole fans are very excited about the RBs at Florida State. Although Antone Smith averaged a decent 4.5 YPC, many noticed that he was tackled easily, and that Jermaine Thomas hit holes harder. In one of the more popular Fanposts in a while MissouriNole pondered statistically if Thomas is the next Warrick Dunn.
Recently I read this fantastic article from Smartfootball, which opened my mind a little to evaluating the RB position. It is an excellent piece.
Keep reading because behind the jump you get to see how I went through every game log last year to break down our backfield...
So that article by Chris over at Smartfootball shows that regardless of YPC the median yards gained by a back are usually about the same (Note: Median numbers are often more reliable because it helps to eliminate the effect of outliers). While that is true in the homogenous NFL, the difference between RBs in college football is often greater. However the fact is still true, the medians will almost always be very close. This leads to two conclusions about the evaluation of RBs. (1) That players who can create homerun carries for large chunks of yards are much more valuable than those that cannot; and (2) that evaluating only on yards gained and yards lost is a little misleading because yards lost may not be as important as some researchers have led on. I personally do not know the perfect way to evaluate these players, but I believe that if you can get ALL of the statistics that matter, the picture becomes a little clearer.
For this article I am going to list all of the statistics for the 3 primary RBs who played last year, and try to draw some inferences about what this means for our team this year. I went through all of the Division 1A game logs from last season (because as much as I appreciate the fun of beating Chattanooga, the stats don't really tell us anything because of the poor competition level) to find this info.
One statistic some of you may not be fully comfortable with at this point is Success Rate. The fine people over at Football Outsiders developed it to measure success of plays for RBs. Obviously, if it is 3rd and 1 and you get 2 yards, it is much more valuable than if you get 2 yards on 1st and 10. Success Rate is the amount of "hits" a back gets out of their total carries. A "hit" is earned by gaining 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, or 100% or yards needed on 3rd or 4th down. Let's get going, shall we?
Antone Smith:
-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-2,-2,-2,-2,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-3,-4,-5,-5-6,-7,-9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,
2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,5,5,
5,5,5,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,7,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,8,9,9.10,10,10,
10,11,11,11,12,12,13,15,18,19,20,20,26,27,39,41,60
| Carries | Success Rate (%) |
| 155 Carries | 1st Down 32.3% |
| Median Carry: 2 Yards | 2nd Down: 41.5% |
| Average Carry: 3.3 Yards | 3rd/ 4th Down: 75% |
| 16.8% Negative Carries | Total: 38.7% |
| 599 Yards Gaines | |
| 84 Yards Lost |
Jermaine Thomas:
-3,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,6,7,7,7,8,8,10,10,
11,11,12,12,12,13,21,22,30,62--10.6% negative runs
| Carries | Success Rate (%) |
| 47 Carries | 1st Down 38.4% |
| Median Carry: 4 Yards | 2nd Down: 66.6%% |
| Average Carry: 6.6 Yards | 3rd/ 4th Down: 100% |
| 10.6 % Negative Carries | Total: 55.3% |
| 320 Yards Ganed | |
| 7 Yards Lost |
-2,-1,0,0,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,5,5,6,7,15--8.6% negative runs
| Carries | Success Rate (%) |
| 23 Carries | 1st Down 33.3% |
| Median Carry: 2 Yards | 2nd Down: 44.4%% |
| Average Carry: 2.8 Yards | 3rd/ 4th Down: 60% |
| 8.6 % Negative Carries | Total: 43.4% |
| 67 Yards Ganed | |
| 3 Yards Lost |
Ok so first things first, the sample for Marcus Sims is obviously very small, so they should be taken with a caveat. However they do show you some things about how he was deployed, and how well he ran the ball when he was. He very rarely lost yards.However the good late down success rate can be deceiving, because he was put into the game in manageble situations. You can see by his median run, average, and carry log that he wasn't extremely effective. The 2nd and short, and occasional break for a gassed starter, role can be filled well by Tavares Pressley.
When talking about the starters the first thing that pops out to me is that Antone Smith's average drops from a decent 4.5 YPC on the season to a paltry 3.3 against D1 opponents. Also Antone was rarely putting his team into great situations, because he has a median run of just 2 yards and 26 negative plays for 84 yards.
The opposite is true of Jermaine Thomas. Thomas' average stays at a healthy 6.6 YPC against the better teams (7.0 on the season). Beyond that, and we have talked about it before, is the fact that Thomas doesn't go backward. The result is that Jermaine sports a very nice 4 yard median run, double that of Antone Smith.
One thing becomes strikingly clear. Jermaine Thomas is in almost every single way possible superior to Antone Smith. Our coaches were playing them backwards last year. From the starting RB position a team should be able to rely upon that person to put the team in positive situations on first and second down more often than not. Jermaine does this. A change of pace back should offer something different than the starter, such as being a homerun threat. Smith absolutely was that with 7 runs over 20 yards, 5 for touchdowns. Antone's numbers here do get a little undersold because of the homerun ability, but is anyone here sold that for 4-5 touches a game Chris Thompson can't offer the same type of big play ability? I went into this article hoping to do two things.The first is provide Nole fans with a one stop shop for running stats from last year, so they have a comparison model. The other was to find out more about our backfield, an exploratory study of the game logs if you will. What I came away with was a fundamental belief that our running game is going to be even better than I thought it was going to be yesterday.
Additional support for the Thomas being better than Smith crowd comes from the true experts. Bill Connelly, of RockMNation.com (Missouri CBS Sports and SBNation site) and Varsity Numbers (footballoutsiders.com) recently introduced Points Over Expected (POE). This is arguably the best and most advanced measure of a runningback, independent of his offensive line, available to the college fan. Please visit that link and be blown away.
I asked Bill to provide me with the numbers for FSU's backs. He gladly obliged.
| EqPts | Expected EqPts | PPP+ (Explosiveness) | POE | |
| Smith | 66.4 | 55.6 | 119.3 | + 10.8 (45th Nationally) |
| Thomas | 30.1 | 23.4 | 120.90 | +6.8 (72nd Nationally) |
So there's your answer. Smith was better. So was Thomas. Actually, I'd give the edge to Thomas with the better PPP+, but Smith had almost 3x more carries. Maybe Thomas' production would have gone down with a lot more carries, but he did have the edge.
I'll add that Thomas got a large number of carries against good defenses and didn't simply beat up on bad teams like some backups do.
Finally, because Ty Jones (or C.Jones on the game logs to confuse me) will be a big factor in our running game as well I will post his stats, however, they have almost no statistical significance at all because of the small sample size. They are pretty to look at though, and dream.
Ty Jones: -1,1,1,2,5,5,14,15,31 --11.1% negative plays
| Carries | Success Rate (%) |
| 9 Carries | |
| Median Carry: 5 Yards | |
| Average Carry: 8.1 Yards | |
| 11.1 % Negative Carries | Total: 55% |
| 73 Yards Ganed | |
| 1 Yards Lost |
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How big is Tavares gonna be if healthy?
by DesiNole on Jul 27, 2009 6:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Can he be the big bruising back in this offense?
by DesiNole on Jul 27, 2009 7:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I don't think so
You’re going to need a guy like Debrale Smiley. But I think he’ll end up at GT to succeed Dwyer.
I don't believe they are
1. We were the only team to offer out of HS, and we placed him.
2. He’s publicly said he wants to come back
and the biggest reason it won’t happen
3. There is no way he can handle their academics, and they just don’t get JUCOs in.
Any risk of him not qualifying for fsu?
by DesiNole on Jul 27, 2009 9:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Always some risk with a JUCO kid.
Info hard to come by.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 27, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't underestimate Pressley's ability to deliver a blow
He’s an aggressive runner and I don’t think i’d put money on a cornerback or safety trying to catch him head on at full speed. BUT he isn’t a power back by nature, he just happens to be well put together and strong. He’s fast so expect him to run around people when he wants to and through them when he NEEDS to.
SWFL, when I first glanced at this, I thought you were talking to us in binary code.
But seriously, real nice job.
Out of all of Smith’s run, the most important IMO was one of the 20 yarders with about 3 mins and change left on the clock.
I also know the 26 yarder was a big one too, but without researching it, I don’t remember who it was against. I just have a vague memory that it was big, but not as big as the 20.
Fill in your readers on what I am talking about if you’d like to, even though I am sure most already know.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Miami
3rd and twenty. Won the game, broke two tackles, channeled someone other than himself. I get goosebumps thinking about it.
He really didn't look like himself on that play.
Maybe his freshman self when he ran all over Duke. But most of his big plays were him coming around the edge untouched (VT, Colorado, Clemson). What I love about Thomas is that he’s the first of our backs in a while (maybe Leon Washington?) That actually looks when he’s running. I feel like Antone was too well acquainted with our O-lines back and Lorenzo Booker, as talented as he was was too much of a dancer (I wish he had played for us all 4 years the way he did in his final bowl game against UCLA).
BINGO ON MIAMI.
It was bugging me so I looked it up and I guess the 26 yd was not a TD.
The long ones for TD’s were against Colo=60, NCST=27, VT=39, Clemson=41, and of course 4 against the filthy canes for 2, 19, 5, and the coffin nailer for 20. Even though he only finished with 97 yds, it was his most important game to me.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
He really didn't perform that well in the UM game outside a few runs
But those few were absolutely huge. He murdered the Colorodo game.
True, but the 4 TD's against the despicable canes sealed the deal for me.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
This is excellent work.
Thomas consistently put is in positive leverage situations.
Really, a big thank you for taking the time to do this.
Good Statistics
I never required any to tell me that Thomas was a better back than Smith.
Smith had some flashes though. If I am not mistaken he and the other back Edwards had some long runs called back against Colorado by Cherry.
It seems a few times when Smith would break the long one in various games Cherry would call it back.
As far as Smiley I don’t see him going to Tech. Georgia Tech is absolutely loaded with running backs. With their type offense you have to have them and Johnson has wasted no time getting them if you look at their depth chart.
Hadn't thought of that
It’s kind of sad for us to say that he can qualify here, but it is what it is.
eh, sort of
GT’s academics are extremely hard, and he struggled in High School. He would probably be fine at most schools with tutoring.
From what I heard
It wasn’t a matter of him being dumb. He knew he had no shot and didn’t care. I believe he has a kid.
Hmm hadn't heard that
he wouldnt be the only FSU player on the daddy train. Come work hard at FSU and make the NFL for your kid Debrale!
you guys nailed this.
Another awesome article, and great assists by Trunole87, SWFL, and Frank. Without suffering from severe groupthink, those were my exact sentiments about both Jermaine and Deuce.
I was watching Tone’s Youtube highlights last week and realized he hit more home runs last year than any FSU back in recent memory. (Fairly recent)
To give it a baseball analogy, his slugging percentage kept him on the daily line-up card even though more polished, gap-to-gap run producers were in the dugout. Consider Antone a .240 hitter with 30 homers and bad K/BB ratio.
But it can’t be said enough how clutch his 20 yard bomb against UM was. It erases most of the O-4 nights from our minds.
I like the idea of Waterbug Thompson getting a few cracks each game while the more experienced trio ahead of him put men on base and drive in runs.
Also, agree that Tavares isn’t that mythical “big back Jimbo wants”. He’s just a lean, mean dude. Pressley dwarfs Antone in terms of size, but he’s still not gonna be in Greg Jones territory now or ever. He’s more in the mold of a back Miami has typically featured over the years.
by The K-Man on Jul 28, 2009 1:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
SWFLNole was the feature back here. I just fixed some of the tables and added a few bits.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 28, 2009 7:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Im telling you all watch out this year.
I think we will blow up as a passing team this year. Im calling it right now. We are going to change things up. Last year we use the threat of the pass ( Bubbles and fades) to open up the run. now we have someone that can run (I never liked A smith for the way we run) Its going to open up the pass big time. teams are going to have to stop the run first. They are going to have to stack the box or we will run all over them when they do that Ponder is going to hit all those quick passes and playaction plays. With Jimbo play a game of chess we could have a very high octain Off. Yes we will have a great running game but thats going to make our passing game that much better. We lost Carr, PP, and Corry but that wasnt out Passing offense last year. We still have Reed, Easterling, and Fortson coming back. With the other young kids its just going to get better.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I think we will see some serious play action bombs this year.
Don’t forget Givens, Goodman, and even Caz who will play a bigger role.
but everyone want to talk about the running game.
I just wish we could look into the other stuff also. We have so much more than a running game.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
I want to do a game log analysis/stats database for other positions
but it is finals week so it definitely wont be for 2 weeks.
Maybe this questionhas already been raised numerous times
but have we looked at the SITUATIONS in which Thomas made his runs?
If my memory serves me correct, Thomas came in later in the game and got the ball on a lot of passing downs. If no one has looked at this yet, maybe it’s something to evaluate.
I’m not disputing that Smith was better than Thomas by any means. However, maybe Thomas isn’t the next Warrick Dunn like many hope he is. It’s very different to be the starter and make good runs when everyone in the stadium knows it’s a running play. Also, there are definitely question marks regarding his durability as an every down back.
well if hes not then at leat we have 3 others we could use too
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
We'd have to ask SWFLNole
But he definitely had big runs in games like Miami, GTech, and Clemson, early on.
Also, as for the passing downs thing, only 4 of his runs came on 3rd or 4th down (got a first down every time).
I am interested in this also.
Jermaine Thomas' runs
26 on 1-10
18 on 2nd down, spread out across short, middle, and long
4 on 3rd and 4th.
The myth that Jermaine was put in better situations is just that. The fact is he came in later in the season, but was used similarly to Antone.
There we go!
Also sir, congrats on being featured on Football Outsiders! http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/foa-09-media-cincinnati-florida-state-new-york-washington
Well, that's step one in the analysis...
You can be in a passing SITUATION on first down. Conversely, you can be in a running SITUATION on third down. To determine the SITUATION takes more than a simple checking of the down and distance. It would probably take an in-depth look at the game tape to determine what was going on when JT came in. Did we have a huge lead? Was the game close? Were we down by 10? Did he come in primarily in the second half after Antone had taken most of the hits? Those are all factors I believe should be considered in conjuction with the stats.
Look, I’m a huge JT fan, but I think some people are getting a little carried away on here. I hope that JT is who we think he is. I’m just not getting my hopes up too high like other years.
Your article is great. I’m just pointing out that sometimes the numbers don’t tell the entire story.
absolutely understand
I didn’t watch the tape over. I did read through every offensive play we had last year. JT’s usage was very similar to Smith’s once he was getting regular touches late in the year in my opinion.
I’m not calling him the second coming. I am saying that he is more of a starting back, and the offensive numbers should reflect that fact. Smith was a great homerun guy, but was not effecient. A median run of 2 is abyssmal, and if we should be in much more high leverage situations which helps the passing game as well.
Yeah, I totally agree that the stats indicate that Smith wasn't very good.
and he had plenty of opportunity. It’s definitely a reasonable conclusion that JT is going to be better. I’m just hoping that he continues to be as good as he was last year regardless of the situation.
I do remember that JT was getting more “regular” carries by the end of the year. Especially after his incredible runs in the GT game.
I was thinking the same things.
I think we all know that JT’s ypc averages from last year are insustainable. I do expect his numbers this year to surpass Antone’s from the past season. Similar to last year though, I expect at least one and possibly two back-ups to have higher median ypc than JT. Antone unfortunately disappointed with all the 1,000 yard season talk and I think Jermaine will surpass his career numbers.
by TBfisherman on Jul 28, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
JT will have a much better career
But in Antone’s defense he came here at the worst possible time as far as offensive line’s run blocking goes. Last year was literally the first time I saw any type of push off of the ball since 2004. 2005, 2006, 2007 were TERRIBLE offensive lines. The backs we have now will be paying for a lot of meals for this O-line. Trickett’s bunch mean business and I don’t think his value (Trickett) can be overstated. JT, Pressley and Ty Jones are very lucky customers and they’re talent is amazing. We just need everyone to stay healthy.
Deuce was not suited for this offense either.
Unfortunately for him, when he finally got a good line in front of him, they were zone blocking, which is not the type of offense he was recruited to run in.
He won't be used as an everydown back
anytime soon. For one he’s just not built for it with his running style and for 2 its not Jimbo’s style either. We have quality options like Pressley, Jones, Thompson and Pryor for a reason. The fact that he’ll be splitting carries with at least 2 other backs on a consistent basis will keep him fresh IMO.
Jimbo once led the SEC in rushing with no back having more than 500 yards.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 28, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
i'm sure those guys
aren’t afraid of a little competition….
Look at USC, they have crazy depth, but it doesn’t stop them from pulling some of the best classes year in and year out.
Spread it around
I like the way Fisher spreads the ball among backs. It keeps everybody relatively happy and feeling like they are part of the team rather than have one playing and 3 sulking.
It always leads to backs thinking maybe I had better do something while I am on the field to demonstrate why I need more carries.
When you have a back who is standing out or has a hot hand you can also make sure he is in there in crucial situations and he will be fresh.
He also does a good job
Of providing backs with an adequate amount of carries to showcase their abilities. You don’t have to be a feature back to make it to the NFL. If anything, spreading it around increases these guys’ ability to survive in the NFL because at RB their shelf life is already incredibly short. With a talented backfield to share the ball with, they don’t take as much punishment in college but they get enough touches to show their unique ability as a runner. This is especially true now because the days of the feature back even in the NFL are slowly grinding to a halt. Eventually we will have a 1, 2 punch in house that rivals what Felix Jones and Darren McFadden did at Arkansas a couple of years ago.
I think this is why last year we had such great blocking down field.
The WR never know when it was there turn for the most part. And passing it around makes them run harder.
About Jimbo this man know how to run an Offense. Dont watch the plays for about 15 plays watch the formations and where the other players are going. Jimbo will set up a kid and force him out of position.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Surrency blocking
I think we will miss him in that aspect more than we think….. I can remember countless plays where he is holding his blocks 15 yards down field. Wish he would of hauled a couple of those bombs in, though.
by noles 4 life u dig? on Jul 29, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
I remember when he killed numerous drives against Wake with holding penalties
but yes he was a good blocker when he didnt get called for holding.
His stats werent impressive last year...
by The K-Man on Jul 29, 2009 3:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
many wonder why we should expect more this year after his mediocre stats lasy year
The extra year in the system would’ve been a huge boost. He didn’t even know the rule book concerning chop blocking that game.
He also would’ve been the most physically imposing receiver (makes sense at 24) that we’ve run out on the field since……can’t think of a comparable player.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda.
by The K-Man on Jul 29, 2009 3:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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