Progression, Stagnation, or Regression? Noles Defensive Line
Every day while catching up on my daily Nole must reads, I very often wonder to myself, "Are my 2009 Noles going to be better than last year’s team?"
Recently I came across a similar series that I thought I could apply to our 2009 Seminoles, which might make for entertaining reading to some of our TN members. While this series may not actually answer my question, it might at least give us something to discuss and debate until more information starts rolling in once the practices actually start.
What I will attempt to do, is to project how our 7 basic units (defensive line, linebackers, secondary, backfield, offensive line, receivers and tight ends, and special teams) of the 2009 Noles will perform as compared to last season team.
The way we will try to come up with a possible answer is to address each of the 7 units above individually, by using the projected 2 deeps as of today, in comparison with last years starters. We will look at who was there last season, analyze the roster changes, if any, and then we will all decide if these changes will result in progression, regression, or if we can expect little or no change.
We must remember that with the kickoff still over a month away, and the start of practices still over one week away, it will be impossible to reach definite conclusions at this time. There could very well be injuries, promotions, demotions, and incoming freshmen who might surprise us all. I will ask you the TN members to project via poll, (your favorite way and the easiest and most accurate measure available to us) how well you expect the 7 individual units will perform this season. At the end of the series, I will report back to you, the TN readers, what your expectations of this team are at this point in time.
Recently NoleThruandThru gave us his projected two-deep lineup and asked you for your thoughts on the 2-deeps. While there were some very good comments and opinions posted as to what may happen before and during the upcoming season, for the purpose of this series I will be using only the official Seminole 2-deep lineups posted along with some projections and input I received from FSUncensored.
Please remember that while we lost some very good individual talent, we want to look at the each unit as a whole when we finally vote on whether that particular unit has progressed, stayed stagnant, or regressed, in comparison to last years unit.
Today we will start with the DEFENSIVE LINE.
2008 DE=Benjamin Lampkin (really a LB) started the first 3 games, then was replaced by Neffy Moffett who started the rest of the season. In 10 games played, Moffett had 19 Total Tackles of which 11 were for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 int, 2 QBH, and forced two fumbles and recovered one. Both players are now gone.
2009 PROJECTED DE=Kevin McNeil and Jamar Jackson
2008 NG=Moses McCray started the first 2 games then was replaced by Budd Thacker who started every remaining game until the Champs Bowl when Paul Griffin started his last game as a Nole. Griffin is the only one gone and only had 11 Total Tackles, 1 for loss, 1 QBH, and 1 FR.
2009 PROJECTED NG=Moses McCray and Budd Thacker
2008 DT=Kendrick Stewart started 8 games and Justin Mincey started 4 games, 3 of which were the last 3 games.
2009 PROJECTED DT=Justin Mincey and Kendrick Stewart
2008 DE=Everette Brownhas left and taken his 36 total tackles of which 21.5 were for losses, 13.5 sacks, 2 pass BU, 3 QBH, 4 FF, and 1 FR.
2009 PROJECTED DE=Markus White and Toshmon Stevens.
OTHERS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE: Everett Dawkins (SDE), Brandon Jenkins(WDE), Jacobbi McDaniel (DT), Demonte McAllister (DT/SDE)
Well there you have it. I guess the real question is not if Brown and Moffett can be replaced, but whether their replacements will be able to keep up the kind of pressure on the QB we saw last year, to prevent the rest of the defense from being shredded.
MY PROJECTION: REGRESSION.
What is yours? Please vote now.
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Comments
No Kool Aid on this one
I just don’t see our D line being as good or better than last season. EB gave us a massive lift last year and made the O-line game plan around him. Just don’t see a lineman doing the same this year. I’m counting on our LBs to make up the difference in talent.
Those are some mighty big shoes to fill, and then throw Moffett into the picture and I just don't think so. But I want to be so wrong.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I see us being better.
Because we were way too small last year, and tackles are so much more important than defensive ends.
My POV was the middle stays stagnant, while the outside regresses. Thus my vote.
BTW, thanks for the add on, I meant to do it myself.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
The middle is much better than last year....
so I think it is much better at DT and much worse at DE.
So I will say the same or slightly better because like Tomahawk Nation, I think DT is most important.
Side note: My reason for thinking DT is better is simple. We have 4 vets returning at DT (McCray, Thacker, Stewart, and Mincey). Two of those are MUCH bigger (Stewart and Mincey). Thacker should be healthier. Then ON TOP of that, you have a solid player in Everetter Dawkins AND two very good true freshman (McAllister and McDaniel). I think some move over occasionally to help out at DE (where we are WAYYYYYYY too small….thanks Allen), but that puts FSU 3 deep at DT. That alone is HUGE for improvement.
I get it.....I didn't say the DT would be great....or even good....
I said they would be much better than last year. HUGE difference.
From the pictures of Thacker at summer workouts
he looks much more fit. Maybe he breaks out this year.
Uh...FSUn
Isn’t Thacker at like 260? That pic of him on the beach earlier this summer made him look worthless.
agreed
That was sad. I think he just gave up.
by Fire Machine on Jul 30, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I saw him in mid-June
If you were hoping for a 295+ Bud Thacker, keep rubbing that lucky rock the old Indian with no teeth gave you.
Yeah, he's tiny.
Granted, that was May, so he can maybe be a bit bigger.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 30, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Budd Thacker is SLOW
He’d beat nobody off the edge.
Nail on the head!
We just need quick strong atheletes at end…they can be developed to be pass rushers. Everette is a perfect example here.
We need bigger Tackles and they appear to be on the way… overall we will be stronger up front. Next year much better, year after…..SCARY!!!
Yeah, right!
I'm just talking this out...
How can more experience lead to regression? With the exception of EB and Moffett, we return several players.
Sure EB is a big loss, but White got his feet wet last year and should be better.
Not to mention, everyone is really excited about the type of players that are being brought in, i.e. Jacobbi, Demonte, so experience plus great recruits would have to be progressing, right?
Jason, see my reply to FSUn as to why I feel this way, and I too hope the newbies contribute and contribute early.
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I can't lie FrankD
I feel like you’re playing on the safe side because you want to avoid being overly optimistic. I’ll admit the losses of Moffett and Brown are big but remember people weren’t really expecting much out of Neefy a year ago. He performed above expectations IMO.
I see a bigger, stronger and more explosive interior line. McCray, Mincey, Stewart of this year much better than Thacker, Stewart, Mincey last season. Dawkins prepared to contribute, despite the popular notion that he should be playing DE (I agree btw). Talented freshman are very important because upperclassmen DON’T want to be jumped by freshmen (despite how difficult that is for interior lineman), they also don’t want to be outperformed and outworked. I think Brandon Jenkins plays a crucial role this season and gets quality time and in fact makes big plays. Overall I think we’ve upgraded and expect Markus White after grasping the speed and level of competition at this level is ready to show out. Kevin McNeil will also play well IMO.
truenole, if I truly wanted to be on the safe side, I would have voted stagnant which was the way I was originally leaning.
I always try to see the glass of kool-aid as half full, but after thinking it through, I had to go with regression. I feel the interior, as the K-Man pointed out in his A) 2) D) was the weak link of the unit, and even though they may be stronger, they are still the same players. Due to their strength gain and experience, I felt they would not do any worse, but I do not expect that the same players will suddenly become dominant. Maybe with some of the incoming class to push them a little harder and with another year of experience, they will do so, but I have my doubts and think the interior will remain about the same, but the end play will regress due mainly to Brown’s departure. And even though Moffett is being disparaged somewhat by some here, he was a serviceable end who wound up with 19 Total Tackles of which 11 were for loss, 5.5 sacks, 1 int, 2 QBH, and forced two fumbles and recovered one (the Int was a thing of beauty , watching him rumble and tumble18 yards for a TD in what seemed like it took forever). Their loss is what downgraded my vote to regression, but as I keep repeating, I want to be proved so wrong that I have to apologize at the end of the season.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
I've been trying to focus on the line play when watching last year's games for the umpteenth time
And far too many times I saw
A) Kendrick getting swallowed up like Jonah
2) Griffin in a 7-second hugging match with the Oline
D) Thacker on his back like a turtle
I’ve been known to enjoy a snifter of single malt Kool-Aid from time to time, and I just don’t seeing us doing that poorly again this year.
I hereby move that
The A) 2) D) format be made the official listing format of TN when one is preparing a 3 item list.
I don't see our pass rush being too hot
But our run defense will be much improved. Pass D will take a hit. A pretty big one.
Who knows? Maybe Toshmon Stevens will keep up the fantastic summer and be a QB wrecking ball.
I’ll vote progression, because I have this faith that Everette Brown left a marked impression on how to pass rush with Markus White and maybe Toshmon Stevens
by pillsburysoldier on Jul 30, 2009 2:13 AM EDT reply actions
I don't know...
My first gut reaction was “EB is gone, regression!” but I honestly feel we are going to be better inside this year. McCray is an animal and should have a good and possibly great year, and Markus White is a sleeping animal. He got robbed of quite a few sacks last year but he was in on the plays.
In the end, I think the middle will be better and the ends will be only slightly worse. So, improvement for the optimists and stagnant for the pessimists in my book.
With this group on the d-line do you think the o-line will be able to get to the LB's
If they can then we step back. If the O-line cant get to the LB’s then we are better. I think we are about the same because we had EB and that was about it. now we have better players (bigger at least) at DT but the DE not so much. We might as well as run 3DT and one DE with the size the DT we have coming in they could run there.
Why is the sky blue? Because, God Loves the Infantry
Losses and Gains at least balance out
The Interior will be vastly improved and will steadily get better as McDaniel and McCallister get grow up, which they will hopefully do fast with playing time. EB is a huge loss but White has potential to be just as stunning. I don’t think we’ll notice Moffett’s gone with this group. Stagnant to slightly regressed on the end and progression inside.
Welcome, G&G!
We won’t miss Neefy, bingo.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 30, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
I give them a push at DT, I hope they are better due to the experience and potential at that position. I really have no idea when it comes to DE. The position is filled w/a lot of unproven potential. I feel like White will be something special and I keep waiting for McNeil to live up to the potential he showed when he arrived…after that it’s a real toss up for me.
Progress fo sho
I think McNeil can do his best Neefy impression this year. Although, I just don’t see how he weighs 250-260 lbs. Does he even lift weights? Doesn’t look like he’s made a whole lot of development physically since arriving here. Not worried about Marcus White. I think he’ll get around 8 sacks.
DTs will def be better and that’s huge. Our losses last year were a result of shitty run defense, as you guys have pointed out plenty of times. I’m pretty sure we’ll be better there. I see McCray and Mincey playing really well for us this year.
Can't vote on mobile yet
But even as an officer of the Kool-aid club, I have to go stagnant. EB will be irreplacible, and Moffitt was solid. I think White will be good, but not EB good. The middle should be stronger though, but I think it will be next year before we see a significant difference. Therefore- stagnant.
by TBfisherman on Jul 30, 2009 9:59 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I loved Odell as a player.
He was at FSU when I was.
But I have not seen his interior line playing as well as he did. In fact, iirc, we haven’t had a stellar line in any aspect since Jim Galdden stopped coaching the DE’s.
There’s a big difference between playing and being able to coach a position. I just haven’t seen the proof from Odell yet.
imho, he has this year and next to impress Jimbo that he’s in Trickett’s league. I hope he does. Otherwise, our new DC may well be hiring a new DL coach.
I think we had excellent line play in 2005 and 2006.
Our defense was just very much put in bad situations by the offense.
We’ve also had Griffin, Dunbar, and Flu have bad injuries. Guion leave early and someone else I am forgetting.
Sometimes, bad luck can strike within a limited time period.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 30, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
It's Coaching + Recruiting. That's the total measure of a coach.
He pulled two top 10 dt’s in the last class and got Moses in 2008. I am willing to give him more time to return to form.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 30, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he has done a very decent job with what he has had to work with.
I stole some of this coaching accomplishments from his bio, I left out his playing credits because they are irrelevant in this discussion.
A) Won a National Championship in 1999 as the Seminoles’ defensive Line Coach
2) Coached back-to-back defensive tackles taken in the first round of the 2005 and 2006 NFL drafts
D) Coached Andre Wadsworth from a walk-on to the highest-ever NFL draft pick in school history
5) Eight Seminole defensive linemen have been drafted in the first round during Haggins’ tenure
L) Haggins has coached six defensive tackles that have played in the NFL
9) Coached the defensive tackles on the nation’s top-ranked defense in 1998 and the No. 1 rushing defense in 1996 and 1997
Q) No school has produced more top 10 rushing defenses in the last 11 years and Haggins’ work with the defensive line has been a big reason for that success
HAGGINS’ #1 PICKS
Brodrick Bunkley (Eagles No. 1 Draft Choice in 2006)
Travis Johnson (Texans No. 1 Draft Choice in 2005)
Corey Simon (Eagles No. 1 Draft Choice in 2000)
Andre Wadsworth (Cardinals No Draft Choice in 1998)
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Always the optimist
Hats off to Frank D. Until looking this over I had not realized how good the defense line had an opportunity to be. I can’t look over this and not see major improvement coming.
It is hard for me to believe that Neefy and Brown cannot be replaced. Yes Brown is good but White could very well come close to his standard of play. Outside that we have a lot of defensive ends who can rotate there and stay fresh.
Toshman Stevens is a scrapper and can definitely provide breathers if nothing else. I think Demonte McAllister is being overlooked here. He is probably bigger than Brown right now and he can play both tackle and defensive end.
He and Jacobbi McDanies don’t forget are high school all star type players we have not brought in in awhile. McAllister is chiseled and already past 260 pounds and he is cat quick.
Jacobbi has been called by many including Pete Carroll as the best technique defensive tackle he has ever seen coming out of high school. Yeah I am calling it right here I think he is as good as Neefy Moffett right now. He is benching 405 pounds already.
Even Jackson who has had injuries has had some time with Stroud and should be gaining some strength. He might be one to watch in fall drills.
Moses McCray? This guy is a man mountain. If he had not been injured people would be raving about him right now. Even Thacker has had the summer to shake off injuries and can certainly be a decent back up adding depth.
Yep looking it over reminds me we have some tremendous talent and potential here.
This is not about the defensive backfield but it is the same, Robinson and Robinson, Parks, Moody, Dionte Allen is benching 385 pounds with 4.4 speed now boys. He might come into his own and if not It will be interesting to see if Reid (the real deal) can help as a pure freshman. If not why not?
Kool-aid drinkers club
I would like to nominate Doc as president. That is some serious optimism. It’s nice to read. I think Des could give him a run for his money though.
by TBfisherman on Jul 30, 2009 12:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How much meaningful action do you expect he will get this year? Do you think he will be 2 deep by the end of the year?
DT is a pretty tough transition from HS, but I think he does have tremendous upside.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
McAllister came in at 278. He's huge
and extremely athletic
Let me frame the above by saying
Much will depend on how Mickey uses them and the schemes he puts them in.
I'm really torn on this one
Ended up going with stagnation.
A) Same coaching, mostly the same players, same scheme = stagnation
2) Added beef in the middle, young talent behind them to compete, and hopefully a ball control offense to keep them fresher = progression
D) Pounding schedule from game 1, inexperience and lack of true depth, and probable lack of favoring field position due to special teams deficiencies = regression
I voted progression...
Some others have already mentioned my reasoning: I think our interior will be noticeably better this season.
- McCray is gonna be a monster – I think we can expect a decent step up from his play last season. He’s got muscles in to next week and with a full season under his belt he should make a big time jump. His play is huge next year. I think he can be our most dominant lineman this coming season. We’ll have to see…
Mincey and Stewart both gained weight with will definitely help them from being pushed around like at time last year. They might not be All-Americans, but if they can stay healthy I think their play also steps up mostly due to the arseload of talent behind them working hard.
Then you have our freshman studs who are talented enough to make in impact at some point in the season (most surely later in the season). To me, even if Nole fans don’t see much play at all from McDaniel and McCallister this season, you can bet they at least pushed our upperclassmen to play better and work harder. These two are going to be great for us, just not world beaters this season.
I’m not expecting much out of Thacker but if he can make some plays it’s a huge boost.
Everette Dawkins is out of position at the tackle, but he should also be playing at a higher level this season and certainly has the talent to be a force (I just wish it was on the outside, honestly). We’ll see how much he and Demonte line up outside this year.
Overall, its easy to see that our ends are going to be not ass good as last year. It all depends on how big Markus White can play. If he has a big season getting to the quarterback we will be fine. I think his run D will be as good or better than EB’s. We’ll see in regards to Jamar Jackson, He has to be able to hold his own on his side. from reading reports throughout this off season, I am almost expecting a big contribution from Brandon Jenkins. Then i remember he’s a true freshman. We’ll have to see how it works out – the sooner he comes on the better.
Overall, with better play on the inside, we have a better chance against some teams who would have ran right down our throats last year. While, we’ll miss Everette Brown’s production, we don’t know how good White can be quite yet. He may even be better..in which case – Holy Pleasant Surprises Batman!———> and this basically sums up my feelings (and hopes) about our D-line for this coming season. I’m thinking we’ll all very pleasantly surprised (and the kind of surprise like finding a 10-spot in your pocket, not like waking up in the morning next to a farm animal)
Ha Ha Ha. Did this happen to you too? Sometimes your judgement can be very questionable when impaired.
I’m thinking we’ll all very pleasantly surprised (and the kind of surprise like finding a 10-spot in your pocket, not like waking up in the morning next to a farm animal)
Seriously though, very good points all around.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Did anyone predict Everette Brown to come out and play the way he did all season last year?
I just started reading this website last september so forgive me if EB was already getting pre-season 1st rounder type attention from everyone on this site. But to me, he came out of nowhere and really made a name for himself last year alone. Which seems to be the case every year with the noles on defense. There is always that one player that exceeds everyones expectations and becomes a star. ( buster davis and geno hayes are two other recent ones for me)
by noles 4 life u dig? on Jul 30, 2009 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
I'd argue about Geno
Geno was expected to do big things. I’d even argue he didn’t quite live up to the hype he was receiving when he was recruited.
by Mr. Tito Carlos on Jul 30, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Other than the fight with the cop outside of Bullwinkles or Poor Pauls or whatever... who's your friend?
My memory of Geno from his last year was running around with his head cut off in the Clempson game. I swear his back was to Spiller and Davis most of the night because he overran everything and got out of position.
Disappointing. Plus his playing weight couldn’t have been much more than 220. He came in to FSU right around 200.
EB was expected to well and he did great. I wouldn’t say he came out of nowhere.
I believe I said he was a first round talent back on the old FSUncensored.blogspot.com
However I didn’t think he would leave early before school started.
by Bud Elliott on Jul 30, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
noles 4 life, I think most people thought EB would be a major impact player in the 2008 preseason.
He had a good ’07 season on a piss poor team.
2007 Everette Brown GP=13, Tot Tck=37 with 11.5 for loss, Sck=6.5, PBU=3, and FF=1.
I dug a little deeper to see if my memory was correct and he was chosen pre season All ACC by the ACC, ESPN, and College Football News.
So yeah it was kinda expected, but as FSUn mentioned, probably not so much that he would leave early.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Just another reason why this site is so valuable! Thanks for the info.
I guess I’m hoping that Marcus White will blow up this year and be the next great d-lineman from fsu.
by noles 4 life u dig? on Jul 30, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what we all are hoping for, a strong year this year, then a 1st rounder next year.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
i dont think Everette's explosion was a surprise.
If you were doing a fantasy draft, Everette would’ve been a prototype high reward/low risk to blow up in 2008. There were moments, though inconsistent, in 2007 where EB decided, “I refuse to be blocked”. The Bama game comes to mind.
I have cautious high hopes for this year’s crop, but no returning players flashed that game-changing flair that Everette previewed the year prior to his dramatic ascent.
by The K-Man on Jul 30, 2009 3:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
McDaniels
Somebody made a comment on Jacobbi and I think it was Pete Carroll. He may not have said best but one of the best. I remember it.
At any rate take a look at him, 5 star, great size, mean, Armour All Star.
The bottom line is DocHoliday2 is calling for great things, What else do you need?
Well that should wrap up the comments for this story. Thanks Doc.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
how do the Mac's compare to Marvin Austin
Here is Austin’s bio from his freshman season:
2007: Played extremely well for a true freshman on the defensive line, making three starts and playing in all 12 games • Started against ECU, Virginia Tech and Miami • Finished the season with 26 tackles, 6.0 tackles for losses and 4.0 sacks • Posted four tackles and assisted on a 3-yard sack in the win over Duke • Had one tackle at Georgia Tech • Played well in the win over Maryland with four tackles and two quarterback hurries • Posted one tackle at Wake Forest • Made a 14-yard sack on South Carolina QB Chris Smelley • Had three tackles and a sack against the Hurricanes • Started and recorded his first career sack in the Virginia Tech game • Finished the VT game with four tackles and 1.5 sacks • Had a productive game at No. 23 USF with five solo tackles and a 4-yard tackle for loss • Made his first career start in the loss at East Carolina and had a 2-yard tackles for loss • One of eight true freshmen to see action in the first game of the year, a 37-14 victory over James Madison • Was one of 10 players to play on the defensive line.
Upon further thought, I'll take none of the above. Fluctuation.
I’m not sure what answer choice that would be in an A2D format, though.
I am temped to make all make responses consist of 3 points
Just so I can use the
A) A
2) 2
D) D
by TBfisherman on Jul 30, 2009 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The injury bug is always a factor here also
McCray, Mincey, Bradham and White need to stay healthy. Injuries here could be devasting.
The depth is there this year!
One word describes why the DL will be good this year if for no other reasons. “Depth”
Last year we were depleted on that DL, but this year our starters have backups which allows for a fresh leg rotation this year, which means in the 4th quarter we will not do what happened in the BC game last year and that is allow fatigue to set in.
We are bigger and stronger this year on the front line.
The DL is the key this year due to the ?? marks in the secondary. If the DL can put preasure on the QB at a consistant rate and shut down the run with the help of the LB’s then FSU defense will be good.
There is no question there is more depth at DL. At DE I am not so sure about the quality.
>-----:----:------>Spear 'em then Scalp 'em
Regression
Like much of the rest of the defense, just not as much. Maybe the DTs will improve but that won’t make up for the loss of Everette Brown and the retention of Mickey Andrews. There is no sign that Everette’s replacements will be close to what he is.
It was long ago and it's far away but it was so much better than it is today--Meatloaf
by CantwaitforJimbo on Jul 31, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
Today I will agree with one part of your comment which is why I also voted that way, the rest we will discuss shortly.
There is no sign that Everette’s replacements will be close to what he is.
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